Tuesday Pirates vs. Yankees MLB Prediction: Aaron Judge’s Chase for 60 HRs Means Value on Total (Sept. 20)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees Odds

*Odds via FanDuel as of Tuesday afternoon.

There’s a historically profitable betting algorithm developed by the Action Network that has a substantial betting edge for this contest on Tuesday between the Pirates and Yankees.

Aaron Judge’s chase for his 60th, 61st and 62nd home runs will factor into that calculus.

The algorithm targets the moneyline and factors in injuries, matchups, weather conditions and more.

This edge provides about a 5.5% edge in betting value, which indicates the pick has implied odds that are more than 5.5% higher than the odds available to you in the markets.

Essentially, the line is currently at a 5.5% discount across the market.

Over the long run, if you only bet on lines with at least an 5.5% betting edge, you’re almost assured to make a profit. In the short term, of course, variance is a constraint.

MLB Algorithm Prediction for Tuesday

Odds and betting data updated as of noon ET.

The models are rolling heavily with the under as the best pick of the day.

The algorithm thinks the total should be around 7.17 at a clip of -110. Meanwhile, the best price you can get on the market is at u8 at SuperBook for a vig of -105.

If you’re outside of Colorado, New Jersey, Tennessee or Arizona, roll with PointsBet‘s price of -107 at u8.

Remember, though, even small differences in lines make a big difference in the long run. The market-worst price of u8 (-115), for instance, saps about 2.2% of value from this betting edge — enough to downgrade this pick substantially.

So make sure to line shop properly before placing a bet using our algorithms.

As aforementioned, this line gives you $5.50 of expected value for every $100 wagered over the long run, according to our algorithms.

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