Sean Koerner — FantasyPros’ most-accurate draft ranker from 2019-21 — is breaking down his positional rankings and draft strategy for 2022.
This series is part of our PRO subscription, which will not only grant you access to these Tiers, but also to Koerner’s real-time rankings as part of our 2022 Fantasy Draft Kit.
Running back continues to be the most critical position in fantasy football.
There are two main reasons RB typically decides the fate of your team each season:
As the NFL becomes an increasingly pass-heavy league and RBs are deployed for specific purposes, there are fewer workhorse backs. Positional scarcity makes it critical to draft at least two workhorse RBs.
The position is very volatile. RBs are the most likely players to miss time due to injury or lose their job. Given the position is much more about opportunity rather than talent, it paves the way for late-round picks or even waiver-wire pickups to emerge as league winners.
Because of those two factors, there are a lot of draft strategies focused solely on how many RBs you should acquire early on.
On the opposite end of the spectrum is the Zero RB strategy, which I agree with … in theory. It mainly focuses on Reason No. 2 above, but ignores Reason No. 1 — that’s why I would dub my approach as the RB Surplus Strategy: I first aim to draft two RBs before the end of Round 4/5 because, as I mentioned, it’s critical to acquire two who are set to open the season with a reliable workload. Then I target high-upside backs in the middle and late rounds.
Another important component of your draft strategy should be to understand the purpose of your bench. Generally, you don’t want to waste a bench slot on a quarterback or a tight end since it’s very easy to find a replacement for either on the waiver wire if you’re in a pinch or need a bye-week fill-in.
If I have seven bench slots, I’ll usually aim to fill them with two-to-three WRs and four-to-five high-upside RBs.
Note: For Best Ball, my strategy is very different, and I usually draft 5 RBs total. (You can listen to my Best Ball tips, including how to approach roster construction here.)
The goal of stashing high-upside RBs, specifically, is to hopefully strike gold if one earns a one-off start or becomes his team’s starter indefinitely. Think about the backup RBs who usually require a No. 1 waiver wire claim or the highest Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) bid to acquire when injury or depth chart news breaks mid-season — I can’t tell you how many times a RB who fits that profile was already on my bench.
Drafting RBs with the highest potential to be league winners allows me to be even more aggressive when I have first priority on waiver wire claims or still have a high percentage of my FAAB available.
Fantasy RB Rankings & Tiers
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| Tier | Players |
| 1 | Jonathan Taylor (TEN) |
| 2 | Christian McCaffrey (CAR) |
| 3 | Austin Ekeler (LAC) Derrick Henry (TEN) Najee Harris (PIT) Dalvin Cook (MIN) |
| 4 | Alvin Kamara (NO) Joe Mixon (CIN) |
| 5 | D’Andre Swift (DET) Saquon Barkley (NYG) Javonte Williams (DEN) Nick Chubb (CLE) |
| 6 | Aaron Jones (GB) Leonard Fournette (TB) |
| 7 | Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) James Conner (ARI) David Montgomery (CHI) Cam Akers (LAR) A.J. Dillon (GB) |
| 8 | Josh Jacobs (LV) Elijah Mitchell (SF) Travis Etienne (JAX) Breece Hall (NYJ) |
| 9 | Damien Harris (NE) Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) Kareem Hunt (CLE) Antonio Gibson (WAS) Miles Sanders (PHI) Tony Pollard (DAL) J.K. Dobbins (BAL) Chase Edmonds (MIA) |
| 10 | Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL) Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) Devin Singletary (BUF) Dameon Pierce (HOU) Rashaad Penny (SEA) |
| 11 | Melvin Gordon (DEN) James Robinson (JAX) Kenneth Walker III (SEA) Michael Carter (NYJ) Darrell Henderson (LAR) Isiah Pacheco (KC) |
| PPR backs | J.D. McKissic (WAS) James Cook (BUF) Kenneth Gainwell (PHI) Nyheim Hines (IND) |
| Backups (Tier 1) | Alexander Mattison (MIN) Jamaal Williams (DET) Mike Davis (BAL) Zamir White (LV) Tyler Allgeier (ATL) Raheem Mostert (MIA) Khalil Herbert (CHI) Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) Isaiah Spiller (LAC) |
| Backups (Tier 2) | Sony Michel (MIA) Mark Ingram (NO) Ronald Jones II (KC) Marlon Mack (HOU) Kenyan Drake (FA) Damien Williams (ATL) Rachaad White (TB) Ty Davis-Price (SF) D’Onta Foreman (CAR) Samaje Perine (CIN) Boston Scott (PHI) |
Tier 1
Jonathan Taylor (IND)
Takeaway: Target Taylor with the first overall pick.
Tier 2
Christian McCaffrey (CAR)
Takeaway: Target CMC with the second or third overall pick. If I’m in a league that starts three WRs, I would consider Cooper Kupp No. 2 overall.
Tier 3
Austin Ekeler (LAC)
Derrick Henry (TEN)
Najee Harris (PIT)
Dalvin Cook (MIN)
Takeaway: Target these backs in the Nos. 3-8 overall range. I would draft Justin Jefferson once Ekeler/Henry/Harris are off the board.
Tier 4
Alvin Kamara (NO)
Joe Mixon (CIN)
Kamara’s legal issues and potential suspension appear likely to resolve in the 2023 season. There is still the possibility that the timeline moves up and he receives a multi-game suspension towards the end of the season. I am not a fan of taking on any sort of risk like that in the first few rounds, so I’m avoiding him at ADP.
Takeaway: Avoid Kamara at ADP, unless you are OK taking on the slight risk of a potential suspension later in the season.
Tier 5
D’Andre Swift (DET)
Saquon Barkley (NYG)
Javonte Williams (DEN)
Nick Chubb (CLE)
I completely faded Barkley last season as he was entering the season at less than full health. He is 100% healthy now and carries top-five upside, so I like the idea of targeting him if he falls outside of the top 10 at RB.
Takeaway: Target Barkley at ADP.
Tier 6
Aaron Jones (GB)
Leonard Fournette (TB)
Jones will see his role in the passing game expand with the departure of Davante Adams. However, I think his counterpart, AJ Dillon offers more value a couple rounds later. Fournette represents the end of the RB1 Tier.
Takeaway: Target Fournette at ADP.
Tier 7
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)
James Conner (ARI)
David Montgomery (CHI)
Cam Akers (LAR)
AJ Dillon (GB)
The RB2 Tier is when it feels like there are potential landmines. Will Conner be even more injury prone at 27 years old? How will Montgomery fare behind arguably the league’s worst offensive line? Is Akers going to be in a true 50/50 timeshare with Darrell Henderson?
I’m still willing to draft these backs considering the position starts to take a couple of steep drop offs over the next few tiers. My favorite target in this section is Dillon, who you can get a bit later. He should be able to offer low-end RB2 value even when Aaron Jones is active, but has low-end RB1 injury upside.
Takeaway: Target Dillon at ADP.
Tier 8
Josh Jacobs (LV)
Elijah Mitchell (SF)
Travis Etienne (JAX)
Breece Hall (NYJ)
Jacobs’ stock has been a roller-coaster ride this offseason. He saw a ton of playing time in the HOF game, which indicated the coaching staff was still undecided about the RB rotation this season. Rookie Zamir White is believed to have a role on early downs, with Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden battling for the “James White role” in Josh McDaniels’ scheme. However, Jacobs is back in the low-end RB2 discussion after the Raiders released Kenyan Drake.
Mitchell is a boom/bust pick considering the 49ers’ backfield is tricky to project every year. He’s a lock to be the Week 1 starter, but after that, the laws of Kyle Shanahan will dictate his end-of-season finish.
Hall has looked mediocre in limited preseason action, but he is by far the best rookie RB of this class. He reminds me of a Joe Mixon/Kareem Hunt hybrid who is a bet on talent, but his lackluster O-line could limit his upside.
Takeaway: This is a boom/bust tier.
Tier 9
Damien Harris (NE)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC)
Kareem Hunt (CLE)
Antonio Gibson (WAS)
Miles Sanders (PHI)
Tony Pollard (DAL)
J.K. Dobbins (BAL)
Chase Edmonds (MIA)
There is a lot to unpack in what is the “Frozen Pond” tier of 2022. To be fair, there aren’t as many candidates as there were last year. Mike Davis, Myles Gaskin and Raheem Mostert were pretty glaring last year. I would consider CEH, Gibson, Sanders, Dobbins and Edmonds to be the “Frozen Pond” for this season. I am not saying to completely fade those backs, as there are spots where I would be OK targeting them. However, I am much more interested in targeting Hunt and Pollard.
Hunt and Pollard represent the perfect type of RB I like to target in the middle rounds. Both backs should be able to provide low-end RB2/Flex value even when the starting RB for their team is active. However, both offer RB1 upside if their starting RB misses time. That is the ideal floor/ceiling combo that can lead to a fantasy football championship.
Takeaway: Target Hunt and Pollard at ADP.
Tier 10
Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL)
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE)
Devin Singletary (BUF)
Dameon Pierce (HOU)
Rashaad Penny (SEA)
All of these backs (aside from Stevenson) should be their team’s Week 1 starter, but will be involved in a 2-3 way RBBC. I like targeting these backs if one of them falls outside of the top 35. Based on my strategy to target AJ Dillon, Kareem Hunt, and Tony Pollard in this range, I’m typically addressing QB/WR/TE when this tier is being drafted.
Takeaway: This tier doesn’t jive with my optimal draft strategy, but if any of these backs fall outside of the top 35, they provide some nice upside.
Tier 11
Melvin Gordon (DEN)
James Robinson (JAX)
Kenneth Walker III (SEA)
Michael Carter (NYJ)
Darrell Henderson (LAR)
Isiah Pacheco (KC)
I think this is one of the sneakiest tiers to start building out your bench. All of these backs will/could have a big enough role to produce RB3/Flex value, even when their RBBC counterpart is healthy. However, they would all provide RB2/Flex value if their RBBC counterpart misses time.
Robinson and Walker may be limited or even miss the first couple of games of the season, but that should not impact their draft stock. You aren’t drafting these backs in order to use them early in the season.
Takeaway: Everyone in this tier has a sneaky floor/ceiling combo that you can get cheap. I would try to land at least one of them when you start building out your bench.
PPR backs
J.D. McKissic (WAS)
James Cook (BUF)
Kenneth Gainwell (PHI)
Nyheim Hines (IND)
These backs are PPR specialists who offer you a high floor in a pinch. It’s nice to have backs like this on your bench for weeks when you may be dealing with injuries, BYE weeks, etc. They should be able to provide a handful of points on any given week and their value doesn’t go up or down too much based on the health of their RBBC counterpart(s). I consider these backs a safety net in PPR formats.
Takeaway: If you take a Zero-RB approach or just want to have a high-floor bench RB in PPR formats, these are the ones to target.
Backups With Injury Upside (Tier 1)
Alexander Mattison (MIN)
Jamaal Williams (DET)
Mike Davis (BAL)
Zamir White (LV)
Tyler Allgeier (ATL)
Raheem Mostert (MIA)
Khalil Herbert (CHI)
Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS)
Isaiah Spiller (LAC)
See my RB Upside Ratings for a more detailed view of how I view each of these backs.
Davis may end up providing RB3/Flex value early in the season as it looks like J.K. Dobbins will be eased back into action, while Gus Edwards has already been ruled out for the first four games. He is a nice back to add late in drafts if you need early season value. White, Allgeier, Mostert and Robinson do not need an injury in order to potentially offer RB3/Flex value, which gives them sneaky upside in this range.
Takeaway: These are the backups to target later in drafts. Some offer more upside than others, refer to my RB Upside Ratings to see a more detailed view of this.
Backups With Injury Upside (Tier 2)
Sony Michel (MIA)
Mark Ingram (NO)
Ronald Jones II (KC)
Marlon Mack (HOU)
Kenyan Drake (FA)
Damien Williams (ATL)
Rachaad White (TB)
Ty Davis-Price (SF)
D’Onta Foreman (CAR)
Samaje Perine (CIN)
Boston Scott (PHI)
This is the other batch of backup RBs who have injury upside, but even in the event of the lead back missing time, they may still be involved in some sort of RBBC, which limits their ceiling.
Drake is in a unique position as a free agent right now. It’s likely he waits until a team loses a key RB to a significant injury and signs with that team. In a sense, he has a greater chance to see his stock rise before the season starts by not being on a team right now.
Takeaway: These are backups to stash in deeper leagues. In a league where I don’t have to draft a K/DEF, I draft two of these backs instead just in case an injury were to pop up, sending them up the depth chart.