Twins vs. Astros Odds
| Twins Odds | +260 |
| Astros Odds | -320 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 (-115 / -105) |
| Date | Tuesday, Aug. 23 |
| Time | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Channel | MLB.tv |
*Odds via FanDuel as of Monday afternoon
A rare five-bagger is lighting up for this game’s moneyline, and a solid one-fourth of the Action Network’s staff is rocking with that same line tonight.
Five signals indicate that sharp, big moneyed and expert bettors are all aligned on this pick.
In addition, the Action Network’s betting algorithms and a historically profitable betting system developed in-house are rolling with the same line.
It’s a rare instance where all the stars line up and indicate true value on something in the market.
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The historically profitable betting system accumulates data since 2005 and has returned a very solid 10% on investment since then.
If you had bet $100 on each game that has fit that betting trend since 2005, you’d be up about $14,000. That’s roughly $800 per year.
And this is over a massive sample size: 1,400+ games over the last 17 odd seasons.
The betting system incorporates public tracking data also proprietary to the Action Network. The philosophy behind the algorithm is simple: fade retail bettors on unpopular teams.
We don’t recommend using this betting algorithm as an alternative to investing — variance is a much sturdier constraint in sports gambling compared to the financial markets — but similar principles apply in regards to gains over a long time horizon and sample size.
As far as our algorithms go, there’s 4% in expected value on the same side of the moneyline as well.
Twins vs. Astros Betting System Pick
The 10% ROI system targets the Twins moneyline at a market-best price of +260 at FanDuel.
The betting system requires our team to be the visitor and be on a losing streak. Their moneyline needs to have 35% or less of the retail bettors on the line. So, you’re fading the casuals and their prevailing notions.
In addition, the opposing team’s win percentage needs to be at least 60%.
All those parameters encompass the Twins’ ML.
Sharp, big moneyed and expert bettors are on the same line.
Meanwhile, our betting algorithms say that the line should be closer to +215. The best price on the market of +260 provides an aforementioned 4% betting edge.
While Monday may be the day to cash in, keep in mind that the $800 per season profit is accrued over a season-long sample size.
The best way to maximize that those ROIs is to bet on every game that fits this system for the remainder of the season.
Additionally, the 10% ROI system only wins 41% of the time — the ROI occurs because you’re exclusively betting on underdogs. So you have to be comfortable with losing more individual bets than you win.
