Sean Koerner — FantasyPros’ most-accurate draft ranker from 2019-21 — is breaking down his positional rankings and draft strategy for 2022.
This series is part of our PRO subscription, which will not only grant you access to these Tiers, but also to his real-time rankings as part of our 2022 Fantasy Draft Kit.
My draft strategy for the QB position varies based on the league type.
For season-long head-to-head formats where you only start one QB, the position itself comes with a high floor already baked in: the waiver wire. At any given time, you will have over a dozen starting quarterbacks available to you to add as a potential one-week start and can easily find a QB2 (sometimes a QB1) option available to you. That’s why it’s usually a smart strategy to wait as long as possible to draft a QB, and when you do finally target a QB, go for the most upside possible.
For example, you can wait to get Trey Lance in the later rounds. If he ends up producing like a top-five QB, great! If he ends up struggling in Year 2 or gets injured, you will be able to add a top 15-20 QB off the waiver wire, no problem. No other position gives you that sort of safety net.
For leagues that start two QBs or use a Superflex position, the demand for starting QBs goes way up. The reason for this is there are only 32 starting QBs at any given time. No other position deals with as massive of a drop-off from a starting QB to a backup QB. Therefore, it’s critical to draft two or three of them before the top 25-35 of them are off the board.
In these types of formats, it’s more valuable to draft QBs with a higher floor. Having QBs who can start for all 17 games and provide you a solid score week in and week out are way more valuable in these types of formats.
In Best Ball formats, your main goal is to maximize your team’s ceiling. Dual-threat quarterbacks offer a higher weekly ceiling and are great Best Ball targets. However, the best way to maximize value with your QB strategy is to stack them with 1-3 of their pass catchers. By doing so, you are correlating spiked weeks from your QB with other positions on your team. Therefore, if you drafted Amon-Ra St. Brown and T.J. Hockenson earlier in your draft, you should consider targeting Jared Goff as your QB2/3 later in the draft.
Throughout my Tiers, I try to highlight the best formats to target specific QBs and which QBs I’m targeting/avoiding at their current ADP.
Fantasy QB Rankings & Tiers
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| Tier | Players |
| 1 | Josh Allen (BUF) |
| 2 | Patrick Mahomes (KC) Justin Herbert (LAC) Lamar Jackson (BAL) Kyler Murray (ARI) |
| 3 | Jalen Hurts (PHI) Tom Brady (TB) Joe Burrow (CIN) Dak Prescott (DAL) Matthew Stafford (LAR) Russell Wilson (DEN) |
| 4 | Aaron Rodgers (GB) |
| 5 | Derek Carr (LV) Kirk Cousins (MIN) Trey Lance (SF) Justin Fields (CHI) Daniel Jones (NYG) |
| 6 | Ryan Tannehill (TEN) Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) |
| 7 | Trevor Lawrence (JAX) Carson Wentz (WAS) Jameis Winston (NO) Mac Jones (NE) Zach Wilson (NYJ) Matt Ryan (IND) Jared Goff (DET) Baker Mayfield (CAR) |
| 8 | Deshaun Watson (CLE)* Davis Mills (HOU) |
| 9 | Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) |
| 10 | Marcus Mariota (ATL) Geno Smith (SEA) Jacoby Brissett (CLE) Kenny Pickett (PIT) Mitch Trubisky (PIT) |
| 11 | Drew Lock (SEA) Desmond Ridder (ATL) |
Tier 1: The Josh Allen Tier
Josh Allen (BUF)
Josh Allen has established himself as the premier quarterback in fantasy. He has finished as the QB1 in back-to-back seasons and is a heavy favorite to finish atop his position for the third straight year.
Considering Allen’s dominance and many of the QB1s losing their top WR heading into 2022, I’m willing to target Allen once the top 13-15 RBs, 9-10 WRs, and two TEs are off the board. That’s typically right at the beginning of Round 3 for a 1/2 PPR format where you start one QB (or in Best Ball). He should go even earlier in a 2QB/Superflex format.
Takeaway: Target Allen (in spots) at ADP
Tier 2: High-end QB1s
Patrick Mahomes (KC)
Justin Herbert (LAC)
Lamar Jackson (BAL)
Kyler Murray (ARI)
These four QBs are the most likely to give Josh Allen a run for his money to be the QB1 this season.
Patrick Mahomes would typically be in Tier 1, but losing a talent like Tyreek Hill forces us to lower our expectations. Mahomes still deserves to be the second QB off the board, but considering Kyler Murray is going about 30 picks later, he seems a bit too pricey at his current ADP.
The sky’s the limit for Justin Herbert, and he should benefit from the continuity around his pass catchers, offensive line and scheme heading into his third season. He doesn’t offer the same rushing upside as some of the other QBs in this tier, but you could argue he should be the favorite to lead the league in passing yards and TDs this season.
Lamar Jackson’s ceiling takes a bit of a hit with the Ravens trading away Marquise Brown, but his rushing upside remains intact. He’s still a top-five option, but his chances of matching his 2019 production seem relatively slim.
Kyler Murray will be without DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games. However, once Hopkins returns, Murray will have arguably the best supporting cast of his career. He will have Marquise Brown, Zach Ertz for an entire season and Rondale Moore is a year two breakout candidate. Considering you can get Murray somewhere around 30 picks after Mahomes, he offers the best value from this tier.
Takeaways
1. Avoid overspending to get Mahomes.
2. Target Murray at his ADP.
Tier 3: The Final QB1s
Jalen Hurts (PHI)
Tom Brady (TB)
Joe Burrow (CIN)
Dak Prescott (DAL)
Matthew Stafford (LAR)
Russell Wilson (DEN)
The quarterback who has the best chance to be the QB1 overall this season (not named Josh Allen) is Jalen Hurts. Hurts has already established himself as an elite fantasy option, finishing as a top-12 option at the highest rate last season (73%).
In addition, the Eagles set Hurts up for even more success in 2022 by bringing in A.J. Brown. Opposing defenses will have their hands full trying to slow down a passing attack featuring A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, with Hurts a threat to pull it down and run. He’s part of my optimal draft strategy across all formats.
Tom Brady has lost WR Antonio Brown, TE Rob Gronkowski and LG Ali Marpet heading into what will likely be his final season. He may also be without Chris Godwin for the first few weeks of the regular season.
The downgrade in surrounding talent hurts his chances of finishing as the QB1. However, the GOAT will continue to lead a pass-heavy, fantasy-friendly offense. He’s an excellent fallback plan once Jalen Hurts is off the board.
Joe Burrow has become one of the top QBs in the league after just two seasons. However, he’s too pricey at his current ADP. The best way to invest in Burrow is through his pass-catchers (Chase, Higgins, Boyd, and Hurst).
Not only did Dak Prescott lose Amari Cooper to the Browns, but there is a chance Micheal Gallup misses the first several weeks due to his recovery from a torn ACL in January. As a result, I’m not comfortable drafting Dak at his ADP, especially considering he’s unlikely ever to regain the rushing upside he provided before suffering his 2020 season-ending ankle injury.
Russell Wilson joins a Broncos team with excellent depth at wide receiver and may even let him “cook” more than Seattle was willing to. However, it’s hard to call any WR room an upgrade over DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Wilson’s presence on the Broncos elevates the fantasy value of every skill position player. I’m just not so sure he will benefit too much from the change of scenery.
Takeaways
1. Make Hurts part of your overall draft strategy
2. Brady makes for a solid backend plan once Hurts is off the board
3. Burrow, Prescott and Wilson are overpriced. Invest in their pass catchers instead.
Tier 4: No Man’s Land
Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Aaron Rodgers’ value took a hit after the Packers decided to trade away Davante Adams and let Marquez Valdes-Scantling walk in free agency. The future first-ballot Hall of Famer will still find a way to post solid numbers with a weaker supporting cast this year, but the chances of him posting a top-5 season at the position are significantly lower this season.
Takeaway: Avoid Rodgers at ADP, especially if Matthew Stafford is still on the board
Tier 5: High-end QB2s With Either a High Floor or Ceiling
High floor: They offer more value in 2QB/Superflex head-to-head formats.
Derek Carr (LV)
Kirk Cousins (MIN)
Not only do these veteran pocket-passers offer a high floor, but there is reason to believe they can have career years in 2022.
Derek Carr reunites with former college teammate and All-Pro receiver Adams. I’m not sure how opposing defenses can cover Adams, Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller, but Carr will undoubtedly benefit from such a loaded supporting cast.
The Vikings have moved on from a defensive-minded head coach in Mike Zimmer to Kevin O’Connell, who will be implementing a more innovative, pass-heavy offense. Kirk Cousins should benefit from the scheme change, and he is paired with one of the best WRs in the game in Justin Jefferson.
Takeaways
1. Target both Carr and Cousins in 2QB/Superflex formats
2. Target both in Best Ball, stacking them with one or two of their WR/TE
High ceiling: They offer more value in deeper 1QB leagues and best-ball formats.
Trey Lance (SF)
Justin Fields (CHI)
Daniel Jones (NYG)
Trey Lance has top-5 upside if he can ever reach his potential as a passer. Either way, his rushing ability should put him in the low-end QB1 (at least) for 2022.
Justin Fields has one of the worst supporting casts heading into his second NFL season. However, he showed enough potential in his rookie season to think he can be a solid QB2 with spiked weeks.
Daniel Jones is the biggest wild card of this tier. New HC Brian Daboll was partly responsible for Allen’s breakout in Year 2, and there is a chance he can help unlock a career year from Jones in 2022. Jones has sneaky rushing upside, and you can get him outside the top 20 in most drafts right now.
Takeaways
1. Target these QBs at ADP
2. Daniel Jones goes much later in the draft. Do not reach for him this early, but he offers a ton of upside at ADP.
Tier 6: Offer High-end QB2 upside, Wouldn’t Bet On It
Ryan Tannehill (TEN)
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)
Ryan Tannehill’s value took a massive hit after the Titans traded away A.J. Brown to the Eagles. Rookie Treylon Burks and Robert Woods will do their best to try to fill the void, but Tannehill’s efficiency will undoubtedly take a hit.
The Dolphins have put Tua Tagovailoa in the best possible position to succeed heading into Year 3. They brought in one of the top WRs in the league in Tyreek Hill, added Connor Williams and Terron Armstead to improve their offensive line and hired head coach Mike McDaniel, who will be implementing a fantasy-friendly scheme from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree.
Takeaway: I typically avoid these QBs at their current ADP. Their pass-catchers offer more value at ADP.
Tier 7: Remaining QBs Who Will Start 16+ Games If Healthy
Trevor Lawrence (JAX)
Carson Wentz (WAS)
Jameis Winston (NO)
Mac Jones (NE)
Zach Wilson (NYJ)
Matt Ryan (IND)
Jared Goff (DET)
Baker Mayfield (CAR)
The low-end QB2 tier offers a nice blend of floor/ceiling options, and these are the last available QBs we can safely project for 16+ games if they stay healthy.
Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson offer the broadest range of outcomes. Both QBs struggled as rookies last season but possess too much potential to write off quite yet.
Baker Mayfield jumps up to this Tier following the trade to Carolina. There was a possibility of Baker landing somewhere as a backup to begin the season, so ending up on a team where he is a heavy favorite to be the Week 1 starter bumps him up into Tier 8.
Takeaways
1. Target Lawrence, Winston and Wilson in Best Ball formats
2. Target Wentz, Jones, Ryan and Goff in 2QB/Superflex head-to-head leagues
Tier 8: Wild Cards
Deshaun Watson (CLE)*
Davis Mills (HOU)
We should be getting clarity on the potential suspension for Deshaun Watson soon. However, all signs seem to be pointing to it being a lengthy one, possibly the entire season. So, draft Watson at your own risk. I have not been targeting him in drafts.
Davis Mills was a pleasant surprise as a rookie, and he played well enough for the Texans to let him audition for a starting job beyond 2022. Mills isn’t someone I’m going to target in most drafts, but he does inspire confidence in targeting his top target, Brandin Cooks, at his ADP.
Takeaways
1. Avoid this tier.
2. Davis Mills is typically the last QB we can project for 15 or more starts. Therefore, if you need a QB2/3 and he’s still on the board, go for it.
Tier 9: Likely Traded, But To Who?
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF)
There is still a ton of uncertainty as to if/where/when Jimmy G will be traded.
Jimmy Garoppolo is recovering from shoulder surgery and may not be traded until he’s healthy enough to throw. If he does get traded, is it to a team where he will be the Week 1 starter? Or will the 49ers decide to keep him and let him battle with Trey Lance for the starting job?
These questions need to be answered before I can confidently rank him.
Takeaway: I would be cautious targeting Jimmy G. He isn’t guaranteed to land in a situation where he is a Week 1 starter. Not knowing which team he will be playing for also makes it difficult to create stacks in Best Ball formats.
Tier 10: Likely Week 1 Starter With Short Leash
Tier 10a: Projecting for 10+ starts
Marcus Mariota (ATL)
Geno Smith (SEA)
These QBs are the favorite to start Week 1 but are unlikely to start all 17 games, even if healthy. It means they should offer most of their value in the first half of the season, which is the easiest time to survive with limited depth at the position. As a result, I wouldn’t feel comfortable drafting anyone from this tier unless you are desperate.
Sam Darnold was in this tier before the Baker Mayfield trade. As a result, he is no longer draftable.
Tier 10b: Projecting for 7-10 Starts
Jacoby Brissett (CLE)
Kenny Pickett (PIT)
Mitch Trubisky (PIT)
Jacoby Brissett’s value is directly tied to Deshaun Watson’s potential suspension. All signs indicate that Watson is facing a lengthy suspension- possibly the entire season. There is a chance the Browns will sign/trade for another QB to compete with Brissett in that scenario.
The Steelers QB situation will be worth monitoring as whoever ends up starting, whether it’s Mitch Trubisky or Kenny Pickett, should offer low-end QB2 value. Both have rushing upside and will have plenty of weapons to throw to. However, the most likely scenario appears to be Trubisky starting the majority of games in the first half of the season, with first-round rookie starting the majority of games in the second half.
Takeaway: Only take fliers on these QBs at ADP in deeper leagues.
Tier 11: Rookies Who May Start Late in Season & Drew Lock
Drew Lock (SEA)
Desmond Ridder (ATL)
Drew Lock was part of the deal that sent Russell Wilson to the Broncos, and there’s a chance he will start games for the Seahawks this season. However, Smith appears to be the current favorite to start Week 1.
Since 2000, we have only seen three quarterbacks taken in Round 3 or later make 10 or more starts as a rookie (Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, and Gardner Minshew). Desmond Ridder could buck that trend considering he ended up on a team in rebuild mode without a long-term answer at QB.
Matt Corral was in this tier before the Baker Mayfield trade, but the odds of him starting games this year are significantly lower now. I’m expecting the Panthers to use the preseason in order to get a good look at Corral and evaluate their plans for 2023 and beyond.
Takeaway: Only take fliers on these QBs at ADP in deeper leagues.