Betting value doesn’t always correlate with “fun,” meaning the smartest opportunities often lie with unpopular/bad teams, big dogs and unders.
If you’re a responsible recreational bettor who likes to throw a few bucks around for entertainment purposes, that’s fine.
However, if you’re someone who wants to win in the long term, that also means taking uglier positions throughout the season, especially one as long as Major League Baseball runs.
And when it comes to Tuesday’s MLB slate, that’s just how the wiseguys are approaching the Blue Jays vs. Yankees and Red Sox vs. Braves matchups.
Let me explain.
MLB Picks & Predictions for Tuesday
*Odds as of Tuesday morning
Blue Jays vs. Yankees Pick
7:05 p.m. ET | YES
It’s not at all surprising to see 66% of moneyline bettors backing the Bronx Bombers, who currently sport the best record in baseball, for this matchup.
However, pros are taking a serious liking to this over/under instead.
After opening at 7.5, Action Labs’ Bet Signals are reporting four separate instances of smart money flowing on this under, forcing oddsmakers to push the total down to 7 across the market.
In addition, the Blue Jays vs. Yankees under fits not one, but two of the Action Network’s PRO Betting Systems, illuminating even more value on this bet.
As of the time of writing, the under is a match for our Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams and Weather: Wind Blowing In systems, which have both produced win rates of 55% dating back to the start of the 2005 MLB season.
While this number has dipped to 7 at most sportsbooks, DraftKings and FanDuel are still hanging a juiced-up 7.5, so be sure to shop around if tailing the sharps with this under.
PRO Report Pick: Under 7.5 (-125)
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Red Sox vs. Braves Pick
7:20 p.m. ET | TBS
Who wants to consider another under?
The line movement for Red Sox vs. Braves has been even more drastic with the total falling from 8.5 to 7.5, thanks to pros steaming that side of the total twice already.
Steam refers to sudden, uniform line movement across the entire market that is often the result of bettors with the respect and resources to move odds getting down on the same side of the same game at multiple sportsbooks, all at once.
Perhaps even more eye-opening are the betting splits on the Red Sox vs. Braves total as well.
Ninety-seven percent of the money has hit the under to this point on just 60% of the wagers — a dead giveaway that the biggest bets are banking on a lower-scoring game.
PRO Report Pick: Under 7.5 (-110)
