There are two games on Friday night that The Action Network’s betting models have indicated value on.
Our models are player-level, factoring in all the injuries and COVID-related absences across the league that have made handicapping NBA games so odd this season.
These games include the Los Angeles Lakers vs. Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Miami Heat.
Read further to see what these picks are and the theory behind our model projections.
NBA Model Projection Edges
Odds and betting data last updated at 12 p.m. ET on Friday.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Toronto Raptors
7:30 p.m. ET
Our model tabs the spread for this matchup at Lakers +6.5, but the best price on the market as of Friday afternoon is at +9 (-110) at DraftKings.
That means there’s a roughly 5.5% betting edge, good for a B grade from our models.
Betting based solely on these model edges works best when they’re graded as a B or higher, but still make sure to make your own thesis before tailing this pick blindly.
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The Lakers are still missing Anthony Davis. LeBron James is listed as day-to-day, but he has been for the better part of this season.
The Raptors will be missing OG Anunoby.
This line had opened at Lakers +7.5 before moving to its market-best price of +9. That precipitous change has made this pick potentially valuable.
Sharp Angle: Lakers +7.5 or better (DraftKings)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Miami Heat
8 p.m. ET
Our data finds value on the Thunder’s spread. Our models think the Thunder should be just 11.8 point underdogs. But the best price on the market has the Thunder as +16.5 underdogs.
That price is available at Caesars.
That’s a roughly 5.2% betting edge, good for another B grade from our models. As aforementioned, our projections indicate that a B grade or above represent the most profitable edges.
This line opened at +16 before moving to its market-best price at +16.5.
Keep your eyes out for injuries on this one. The Thunder’s best player Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is questionable with an ankle injury.
Sharp Angle: Thunder +16.5 or better (Caesars). Dependent on Gilgeous-Alexander’s injury update.
