There are two games on Tuesday night that The Action Network’s betting models have indicated value on.
Our models are player-level, factoring in all the injuries and COVID-related absences across the league that have made handicapping NBA games so odd this season.
These games include the Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Clippers vs. Houston Rockets.
Read further to see what these picks are and the theory behind our model projections.
NBA Model Projection Edges
Odds and betting data last updated at 2 p.m. ET on Tuesday.
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Brooklyn Nets vs. Toronto Raptors
7:30 p.m. ET
Our model tabs the spread for this matchup at Nets +6.6, but the best price on the market as of Tuesday afternoon is at +9 (-110) at DraftKings.
That means there’s a roughly 4.5% betting edge, good for a B- grade from our models.
Betting based solely on these model edges works best when they’re graded as a B or higher, so make sure to make your own thesis before tailing this pick blindly.
The Nets will be missing their top four players in Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Ben Simmons and Joe Harris. Durant and Harris are still injured while Simmons is working his way into condition. Meanwhile, Irving is unvaccinated and isn’t cleared to play games in Canada as a result.
The Raptors may be missing Fred VanVleet. OG Anunoby will miss this game.
This line had opened at Nets +4 before moving to its market-worst price of +9. That precipitous change has made this pick potentially valuable.
Sharp Angle: Nets +9 or better (DraftKings)
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Houston Rockets
8 p.m. ET
Our data finds value on the Rockets’ spread. Our models think the Rockets should be just five point underdogs. But the best price on the market has the Rockets as +7.5 underdogs.
That price is available at Caesars.
That’s a roughly 5% betting edge, good for another B- grade from our models. As aforementioned, our projections indicate that a B grade or above represent the most profitable edges, so make sure to develop your own thesis.
This line opened at +6.5 before moving to its current market consensus of Houston +7.
The Clippers are still missing their two best players in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. No timetable has been given about when they’re due to return to play. Meanwhile, the Rockets’ starting shooting guard Kevin Porter Jr. is questionable with an ankle injury.
Sharp Angle: Rockets +7.5 or better (Caesars).
