There are three games on Wednesday’s NBA docket in which The Action Network’s betting model disagrees with the market.
Our models are player-level, so they factor in all injuries and COVID-related absences across the league that have made handicapping NBA games so tricky over the past month and a half.
Here are the three underdogs our models like on the slate.
NBA Model Projection Edges
Odds and betting data last updated at 12 p.m. ET on Wednesday.
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San Antonio Spurs vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
7 p.m. ET
Our model indicates the Spurs should be just 3.2-point underdogs for this matchup. However, the market-best price is at Spurs +5.5. That’s a roughly 6% betting edge, good for a B grade overall from our models.
Our projections indicate that a B grade or above is necessary to tail our picks.
The Cavaliers are league-best against-the-spread (ATS), and our models think they’re overpriced in the market as a result. Cleveland is probably due for some negative regression on that front — whether that occurs on Wednesday is for you to decide.
Model Projection Pick: Spurs +5.5 or better
_PromoID=[5113, 5114, 10622]
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Portland Trail Blazers
10 p.m. ET
The Action Network’s NBA models think the Trail Blazers should be just 6.5-point underdogs.
That’s even though Portland effectively just punted on this season after trading away CJ McCollum and Norman Powell. Still, the big moneyed bettors are also on the Blazers to cover at a market-best price of +9.5.
That’s a 6% edge, good for a B grade from our models.
The Lakers are consistently overpriced in the market, and our models think Wednesday night is no different, despite the Trail Blazers’ general foibles.
Model Projection Pick: Trail Blazers +9.5 or better.
Toronto Raptors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
8 p.m. ET
Our models think the Thunder should be just 7.5-point underdogs against the Raptors at home.
The best price on the market is at Oklahoma City +10. That’s a roughly 5.4% edge, good for another B grade.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still out for the Thunder, but as aforementioned, that’s accounted for in our models. The Raptors have no major absences of note.
Model Projection Pick: Oklahoma City +10 or better.