There are three games on the NBA docket for Friday in which The Action Network’s betting model disagrees with the market.
Our models are player-level, so they factor in all injuries and COVID-related absences across the league that have made handicapping NBA games so tricky over the last month.
Here are the three underdogs our models like for Friday.
NBA Friday Model Projection Edges
Odds and betting data last updated at 1 p.m. ET on Friday.
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Charlotte Hornets
7 p.m. ET
Our model indicates that the Thunder should be just 6.4-point underdogs for this matchup. However, the consensus price on the market is at OKC +9.5. That’s a roughly 7% betting edge, good for an A- grade overall.
And while the public is riding with the Hornets, the Thunder have the sharp and big money bettors aligned.
Neither team has major injuries to note.
Model Projection Pick: Thunder +9.5 (consensus).
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Boston Celtics
7:30 p.m. ET
The Action Network’s NBA models think the Trail Blazers should be just 5.5-point underdogs here.
The consensus line in the market puts the Trail Blazers at +8.5 dogs. That’s a roughly 7% edge, good for an A- grade from our models.
Portland has been dealing with personnel issues across its rotation. Leading scorer Damian Lillard, third-leading scorer Norman Powell, Larry Nance Jr. and Cody Zeller will all miss this contest on Friday night.
For Boston, Marcus Smart is questionable.
Our model, of course, accounts for all of those absences.
Model Projection Pick: Blazers +8.5 (DraftKings, FanDuel).
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Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors
10 p.m. ET
The Action Network’s models say the Rockets should be just 7.6-point underdogs against the Warriors. The consensus in the market has Houston as an 11-point underdog.
That’s a 6.6% edge, good for a B+ grade from our models.
The Warriors will be absent Draymond Green, who is still nursing a calf injury, and Klay Thompson, who doesn’t play back-to-backs. Andre Iguodala won’t suit up for this contest either.
There are no new injuries for Houston.
Model Projection Pick: Rockets +11.