Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite player prop for every primetime game throughout the 2021 season. Find out his top pick for Chiefs-Chargers on Thursday Night Football below. He has a 494-388-9 (55%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.
NFL Props: Chiefs-Chargers
Tyreek Hill Under 79.5 Receiving Yards
This year, the Chiefs offense hasn’t been as explosive due to opposing teams playing more two-shell coverage against them and forcing Patrick Mahomes to throw underneath more.
It’s a trend that has prevented Hill from having any ceiling games this year and caused a significant dip in his yards per catch — going from 14.7 a year ago to 11.4 this season.
The Chargers play two-high shell at the third-highest rate in the league, and they’ve only allowed a QB rating of 56.6 on throws 20+ yards downfield. This matchup sets up better for Travis Kelce, especially if Derwin James in unable to suit up tonight. I’m projecting Hill closer to a median of 72.5 receiving yards tonight and would bet this down to 77.5.
Pick: Under 79.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at FanDuel
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What Are NFL Player Prop Bets?
Bets on a player’s statistics or various outcomes can be considered a player prop. Betting on the over or under on a quarterback’s passing yards, over or under on a wide receiver’s number of receptions, and whether a running back will score a touchdown are all considered player props.
To learn more about the various types of props you can bet on, check out our Betting 101 series.