Fantasy football playoffs are stressful enough when it comes to sit/start decisions — one wrong move, and your quest to win your league’s championship will come to an end.
Now we also have to deal with a league-wide COVID outbreak that’s making sit/start decisions even more challenging for Week 15, aka the opening round of playoffs in many leagues.
Three games have been moved to different days (so far): Browns-Raiders from Saturday to Monday as well as Rams-Seahawks and WFT-Eagles from Sunday to Tuesday. These postponements should give the three teams that have been hit the hardest with outbreaks — the Browns, Rams and Football Team — a chance to have more players cleared in time to suit up. The tricky part is we have no idea which players will be cleared in time to play or which players may be added to the COVID list prior to kickoffs.
That’s why I’m leaning toward starting players who are active and in games that kickoff sooner rather than later.
Let’s take a theoretical coin-flip example between Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson and Ravens RB Devonta Freeman — you could make the argument that it makes sense to sit Stevenson on Saturday and roll the dice on Freeman on Sunday, since if Lamar Jackson suits up, Freeman’s final ranking and projection would likely move ahead of Stevenson. And that would typically be a very rational, savvy way to handle a sit/start decision. However, with the league-wide COVID outbreak, I would say you’re better off locking in Stevenson once he’s ruled active for Saturday night and thus avoiding having to roll the dice on Freeman potentially entering the COVID protocol before kickoff.
At this point, we have to assume any player could be placed on a COVID list at any given time, which gives an added “bonus” to players who are in uniform and have been cleared to play.
The flip side of this logic are players who could benefit from extra playing time, snaps, targets, etc. if players on a COVID list aren’t able to clear protocols in time to suit up.
For example, Dolphins WR DeVante Parker would be a low-end WR2 if Jaylen Waddle isn’t cleared in time to play on Sunday, but would drop to a low-end WR3 option if Waddle is able to play. There are a few situations like this, for which your decision should ultimately come down to your own risk tolerance and which option gives you the best chance to win.
If I’m an underdog, I would be more willing to play Parker in an attempt to tap into his WR2 upside if Waddle is ruled out. But if I’m a favorite, I would prefer to lock in a player like Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy, who would be ranked higher than Parker if Waddle is able to suit up (in part because Jeudy has a higher floor than Parker).
In Parker’s case, we will know Waddle’s status before the early wave of games on Sunday. But in my updated tiers below, I offer advice for players who have “dynamic” rankings to help you make these more complex sit/start decisions.
These tiers and accompanying analysis are as of Saturday evening, and the status of players on COVID lists is subject to change, so be sure to consult my real-time rankings as news impacts player availability.
As a general rule of thumb, I would recommend treating every player on a COVID list as if they have a 50/50 chance to play.
Fantasy Rankings & Tiers
Fantasy QB Rankings & Tiers
| Tier | Players |
|---|---|
| 1 | Kyler Murray (@ DET) Josh Allen (vs. CAR) Patrick Mahomes (@ LAC) |
| 2 | Tom Brady (vs. NO) Justin Herbert (vs. KC) |
| 3 | Dak Prescott (@ NYG) Jalen Hurts (vs. WAS) Aaron Rodgers (@ BAL) Matthew Stafford (vs. SEA) |
| 4 | Tua Tagovailoa (vs. NYJ) Kirk Cousins (@ CHI) |
| 5 | Jimmy Garoppolo (vs. ATL) Justin Fields (vs. MIN) Ryan Tannehill (@ PIT) Taysom Hill (@ TB) Russell Wilson (@ LAR) Joe Burrow (@ DEN) |
| 6 | Teddy Bridgewater (vs. CIN) Trevor Lawrence (vs. HOU) Tyler Huntley (vs. GB) Derek Carr (@ CLE) Ben Roethlisberger (vs. TEN) Carson Wentz (vs. NE) Mac Jones (@ IND) |
| 7 | Cam Newton (@ BUF) |
| 8 | Matt Ryan (@ SF) Davis Mills (@ JAX) |
| 9 | Nick Mullens (vs. LV) Jared Goff (vs. ARI) Zach Wilson (@ MIA) |
| 10 | Mike Glennon (vs. DAL) Garrett Gilbert (@ PHI) |
Tua Tagovailoa will likely fall to Tier 5 if Jaylen Waddle cannot clear COVID protocols in time to play. However, we’ll know Waddle’s status before the early wave of games kicks off this Sunday, giving us time to implement a backup plan if needed (for which I would consult my real-time rankings here).
Taysom Hill still carries QB1 upside given his rushing ability, but I’m treating him as a dicey QB2 against the Bucs. His finger injury could hinder him in what should be a pass-heavy game script. In addition, head coach Sean Payton won’t be able to coach this week due to COVID, so I’m being cautious with Hill.
If you’re a heavy favorite, I would go with a QB like Jimmy Garoppolo, who has a higher floor than Hill. But if you’re a sizable underdog — say you had to face Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce this week — you should tap into Hill’s QB1 upside.
Tyler Huntley could be starting in place for Lamar Jackson. Huntley offers QB2 value with QB1 upside given his rushing ability. You can trust him in 2QB/Superflex formats if he’s your best option.
Cam Newton is impossible to trust right now, considering the Panthers gave P.J. Walker 25-30% of the snaps each of the past two games. It’s also a brutal matchup against the Bills’ No. 1 ranked defense in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. However, Newton carries QB1 upside anytime he takes the field, so he’s still worth a dart throw if you are a sizable underdog and need to tap into his upside.
Fantasy RB Rankings & Tiers
| Tier | Players |
|---|---|
| 1 | Dalvin Cook (@ CHI) Jonathan Taylor (vs. NE) |
| 2 | Nick Chubb (vs. LV) |
| 3 | James Robinson (vs. HOU) Najee Harris (vs. TEN) Leonard Fournette (vs. NO) |
| 4 | Austin Ekeler (vs. KC) Josh Jacobs (@ CLE) Alvin Kamara (@ TB) |
| 5 | Antonio Gibson (@ PHI) Ezekiel Elliott (@ NYG) David Montgomery (vs. MIN) Cordarrelle Patterson (@ SF) Joe Mixon (@ DEN) Javonte Williams (vs. CIN) |
| 6 | Rhamondre Stevenson (@ IND) Aaron Jones (@ BAL) Saquon Barkley (vs. DAL) Devonta Freeman (vs. GB) Jeffery Wilson (vs. ATL) Clyde Edwards-Helaire (@ LAC) James Conner (@ DET) |
| 7 | Myles Gaskin (vs. NYJ) Sony Michel (vs. SEA) Melvin Gordon (vs. CIN) |
| 8 | A.J. Dillon (@ BAL) D’Onta Foreman (@ PIT) Miles Sanders (vs. WAS) Chase Edmonds (@ DET) Devin Singletary (vs. CAR) |
| 9 | Rashaad Penny (@ LAR) Michael Carter (@ MIA) Brandon Bolden (@ IND) Darrel Williams (@ LAC) Craig Reynolds (vs. ARI) Tony Pollard (@ NYG) Jermar Jefferson (vs. ARI) Chuba Hubbard (@ BUF) |
| 10 | Darrell Henderson (vs. SEA) David Johnson (@ JAX) |
| 11 | Godwin Igwebuike (vs. ARI) D’Ernest Johnson (vs. LV) Ameer Abdullah (@ BUF) Mike Davis (@ SF) Devontae Booker (vs. DAL) Jeremy McNichols (@ PIT) Nyheim Hines (vs. NE) Dontrell Hilliard (@ PIT) Samaje Perine (@ DEN) Rex Burkhead (@ JAX) Kenneth Gainwell (vs. WAS) Matt Breida (vs. CAR) Justin Jackson (vs. KC) Royce Freeman (@ JAX) Tevin Coleman (@ MIA) |
James Robinson should have a big week, so I’m treating him as a top-five option. However, if he does go off, it’ll be the result of an easy matchup against the Texans, center Brandon Linder’s return to the lineup, and backup Carlos Hyde missing Week 15 due to a concussion. I think the narrative of Urban Meyer being fired being the main reason for Robinson’s outburst will be overblown. However, Meyer being out of the picture should help raise Robinson’s weekly floor and ceiling in the long term.
Falcons head coach Arthur Smith admitted that he’s starting to manage touches for veteran players like Cordarrelle Patterson. It explains the steady decline in Patterson’s underlying usage in the passing game, but he doesn’t need many touches to make significant contributions to your fantasy team. As a result, I’m viewing him as a high-end RB2 play this week.
Sony Michel’s rank factors in the fact Darrell Henderson cleared COVID protocols on Saturday afternoon and can play a limited role in Tuesday’s game. Before Henderson’s situation was clear, though, Michel would have been the perfect example of a player with a “dynamic ranking” based on the status of teammate(s) on the COVID list. Michael would have shot into Tier 5 if Henderson didn’t play, and given that possibility, I would have considered starting Michel over Tier 6 players — even without Henderson’s status known.
Jermar Jefferson could make the Lions’ RB situation murky. He finished with zero touches last week because he was battling an ankle injury, along with the flu. However, running backs coach Duce Staley said he expects Jefferson to have a larger role this week. The Lions RB you can sort of trust is Craig Reynolds — he should be treated as an RB3/Flex with a wide range of outcomes.
Fantasy WR Rankings & Tiers
| Tier | Players |
|---|---|
| 1 | Cooper Kupp (vs. SEA) Justin Jefferson (@ CHI) Davante Adams (@ BAL) |
| 2 | Tyreek Hill (@ LAC) Deebo Samuel (vs. ATL) Chris Godwin (vs. NO) |
| 3 | Diontae Johnson (vs. TEN) Stefon Diggs (vs. CAR) CeeDee Lamb (@ NYG) |
| 4 | Hunter Renfrow (@ CLE) Keenan Allen (vs. KC) Ja’Marr Chase (@ DEN) Mike Evans (vs. NO) |
| 5 | Tyler Lockett (@ LAR) Mike Williams (vs. KC) D.K. Metcalf (@ LAR) Tee Higgins (@ DEN) |
| 6 | Jaylen Waddle (vs. NYJ) Brandin Cooks (@ JAX) Marquise Brown (vs. GB) Michael Pittman Jr. (vs. NE) Brandon Aiyuk (vs. ATL) Odell Beckham Jr. (vs. SEA) Amari Cooper (@ NYG) Chase Claypool (vs. TEN) Christian Kirk (@ DET) K.J. Osborn (@ CHI) D.J. Moore (@ BUF) Van Jefferson (vs. SEA) Jerry Jeudy (vs. CIN) Terry McLaurin (@ PHI) DeVante Parker (vs. NYJ) Michael Gallup (@ NYG) A.J. Green (@ DET) Gabriel Davis (vs. CAR) Cole Beasley (vs. CAR) DeVonta Smith (vs. WAS) Russell Gage (@ SF) |
| 7 | Marvin Jones (vs. HOU) Julio Jones (@ PIT) Amon-Ra St. Brown (vs. ARI) Darnell Mooney (vs. MIN) Donovan Peoples-Jones (vs. LV) Rondale Moore (@ DET) Jamison Crowder (@ MIA) Jakobi Meyers (@ IND) Tyler Boyd (@ DEN) Marquez Valdes-Scantling (@ BAL) Allen Lazard (@ BAL) Laviska Shenault (vs. HOU) Sterling Shepard (vs. DAL) Kendrick Bourne (@ IND) |
| 8 | Robby Anderson (@ BUF) Allen Robinson (vs. MIN) Courtland Sutton (vs. CIN) Josh Reynolds (vs. ARI) Laquon Treadwell (vs. HOU) Zay Jones (@ CLE) Nelson Agholor (@ IND) T.Y. Hilton (vs. NE) Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (@ PIT) Tim Patrick (vs. CIN) Rashod Bateman (vs. GB) Marquez Callaway (@ TB) Tre’Quan Smith (@ TB) Kenny Golladay (vs. DAL) Zach Pascal (vs. NE) Braxton Berrios (@ MIA) Nico Collins (@ JAX) Kalif Raymond (vs. ARI) Rashard Higgins (vs. LV) Albert Wilson (vs. NYJ) Byron Pringle (@ LAC) Keelan Cole (@ MIA) Adam Humphries (@ PHI) |
I’m still projecting Tyler Lockett to play, despite being on the COVID list. If he were to be ruled out, D.K. Metcalf would move up to the bottom of Tier 4, and Dee Eskridge would move up to the middle of Tier 8.
I’m also projecting Jaylen Waddle to play, despite being on the COVID list. If he were to be ruled out, DeVante Paker would move up 8-10 slots in Tier 6.
Allen Robinson is another player I’m still projecting to play, despite being on the COVID list. If he were to be ruled out, Darnell Mooney would move into Tier 6 and be 6-7 spots from the bottom.
I’m not projecting Jarvis Landry to play, given he’s on the COVID list. If he were to be active, Donovan Peoples-Jones would likely fall to the middle of Tier 8.
Fantasy TE Rankings & Tiers
| Tier | Players |
|---|---|
| 1 | George Kittle (vs. ATL) Travis Kelce (@ LAC) |
| 2 | Rob Gronkowski (vs. NO) |
| 3 | Mark Andrews (vs. GB) Dawson Knox (vs. CAR) Dallas Goedert (vs. WAS) Zach Ertz (@ DET) Mike Gesicki (vs. NYJ) Dalton Schultz (@ NYG) Kyle Pitts (@ SF) |
| 4 | Tyler Conklin (@ CHI) Tyler Higbee (vs. SEA) Pat Freiermuth (vs. TEN) Noah Fant (vs. CIN) David Njoku (vs. LV) |
| 5 | C.J. Uzomah (@ DEN) Foster Moreau (@ CLE) Jared Cook (vs. KC) Hunter Henry (@ IND) James O’Shaughnessy (vs. HOU) Cole Kmet (vs. MIN) Gerald Everett (@ LAR) |
| 6 | Jack Doyle (vs. NE) Evan Engram (vs. DAL) Albert Okwuegbunam (vs. CIN) Nick Vannett (@ TB) Brevin Jordan (@ JAX) Jonnu Smith (@ IND) Ricky Seals-Jones (@ PHI) Geoff Swaim (@ PIT) Josiah Deguara (@ BAL) |
| 7 | Pharaoh Brown (@ JAX) Ryan Griffin (@ MIA) Anthony Firkser (@ PIT) Donald Parham (vs. KC) |
I’m still projecting Tyler Higbee to play, despite being on the COVID list. If he were to be ruled out, Kendall Blanton would move up to the middle of Tier 6.
I’m not projecting Austin Hooper to play, given he’s on the COVID list. If he were to be active, David Njoku would likely fall toward the bottom of Tier 6.
Fantasy Kicker Rankings & Tiers
| Tier | Players |
|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Prater (@ DET) Harrison Butker (@ LAC) Jason Sanders (vs. NYJ) Tyler Bass (vs. CAR) Robbie Gould (vs. ATL) Ryan Succop (vs. NO) Greg Zuerlein (@ NYG) |
| 2 | Matt Gay (vs. SEA) Brandon McManus (vs. CIN) Dustin Hopkins (vs. KC) Michael Badgley (vs. NE) Mason Crosby (@ BAL) Nick Folk (@ IND) Jake Elliott (vs. WAS) Evan McPherson (@ DEN) |
| 3 | Matthew Wright (vs. HOU) Greg Joseph (@ CHI) Chris Boswell (vs. TEN) Younghoe Koo (@ SF) Daniel Carlson (@ CLE) Graham Gano (vs. DAL) Riley Patterson (vs. ARI) Jason Myers (@ LAR) Ka’imi Fairbairn (@ JAX) Cairo Santos (vs. MIN) Justin Tucker (vs. GB) Randy Bullock (@ PIT) |
| 4 | Chase McLaughlin (vs. LV) Eddy Pineiro (@ MIA) Brian Johnson (@ PHI) Brett Maher (@ TB) Zane Gonzalez (@ BUF) |
Fantasy Defense Rankings & Tiers
| Tier | Defenses |
|---|---|
| 1 | Miami Dolphins (vs. NYJ) |
| 2 | Dallas Cowboys (@ NYG) Buffalo Bills (vs. CAR) Philadelphia Eagles (vs. WAS) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. NO) Minnesota Vikings (@ CHI) Arizona Cardinals (@ DET) Green Bay Packers (@ BAL) Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. HOU) |
| 3 | San Francisco 49ers (vs. ATL) Denver Broncos (vs. CIN) Cleveland Browns (vs. LV) Los Angeles Rams (vs. SEA) Las Vegas Raiders (@ CLE) Tennessee Titans (@ PIT) Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. TEN) Houston Texans (@ JAX) Indianapolis Colts (vs. NE) |
| 4 | New England Patriots (@ IND) Cincinnati Bengals (@ DEN) New York Jets (@ MIA) Washington Football Team (@ PHI) Kansas City Chiefs (@ LAC) Seattle Seahawks (@ LAR) Chicago Bears (vs. MIN) |
| 5 | New York Giants (vs. DAL) New Orleans Saints (@ TB) Baltimore Ravens (vs. GB) Carolina Panthers (@ BUF) Los Angeles Chargers (vs. KC) Atlanta Falcons (@ SF) Detroit Lions (vs. ARI) |