Another Monday means another slate of college basketball games to bet on.
The Action Network’s betting models have indicated sharp action on three different totals for tonight’s 7 p.m. and 10 p.m. slate.
The games are, admittedly, of very, very low importance. But those are the best games for sharps to target, so why not capitalize?
Read further to see where our models say the wise guys are putting their chips tonight.
College Basketball Sharp Action on Totals
*Odds and betting data are current as of Monday morning.
Towson vs. Kent State
7:00 p.m. ET
This total opened at 134 but sharps have hammered this line down to as low as 131.5. For a relatively inconsequential college basketball game on a random Monday in December, a 2% point swing is fairly substantial.
The big money is also on the under for this one. While just 44% of the total tickets are on the under, a ridiculous 97% of the money is on the total. That means a minority of bettors account for 97% of the money wagered on the under at 131.5.
These two teams don’t have particularly stout defenses — Towson is ranked 202 and Kent State 148 in adjusted defense — but it’s their lackluster offenses that will make the difference. Roll with the sharps and the big money on this one.
Sharp Betting Pick: Under 131.5 (-110)
Mercer vs. Coastal Carolina
7:00 p.m. ET
Sharps have moved this total from its opening mark of 141 down to 139.5 after hammering the under. While Coastal Carolina outkicks its coverage on defense — ranking 141st in the country relative to its 196th overall rank — Mercer struggles on that side of the ball.
Mercer is ranked 275 in the country in adjusted defense according to KenPom, and is in the bottom quartile of points given up per game.
Meanwhile, Mercer’s offense ranks in the top half of college basketball in most advanced offensive statistics. Coastal Carolina’s offense is firmly in the bottom half.
The sharps are also hammering Mercer’s spread at +3.5.
This indicates that sharps are expecting Coastal’s bad offense to falter against Mercer’s below-average defense. It also indicates that they expect Mercer’s relatively high-flying offense to do its job against Coastal’s solid defense — but not enough to make it a shootout.
Sharp Betting Pick: Under 139 (-110)
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San Jose St. vs. Pepperdine
10:00 p.m. ET
This line had opened at 134.5 but the wise guys have shoved it all the way up to 137.
At its current price, this one is probably a leave. While this contest figures to be a shootout, both teams are capable of slowing things down. If you’re able to lock down a price closer to the opener at 134.5, I’d take a crack at this.
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