The NFL’s Week 13 slate has been a very interesting one as edges have fluctuated throughout the week based on odds movement and updated player news affecting projections.
As recently as Wednesday, five games were popping with some of the biggest edges of the season.
However, as is typically the case with the NFL market, these edges have shrunk as bettors have steadily taken advantage of these values.
But even as we head into Sunday’s NFL Week 13 slate, there are still three games with very enticing betting model edges: New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Los Angeles Rams and Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers.
Below we examine Sunday’s top NFL betting model predictions.
NFL Betting Model Predictions for Week 13
*Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.
Giants vs. Dolphins Betting Prediction
1 p.m. ET | FOX
The Giants will be without starting quarterback Daniel Jones, yet The Action Network’s NFL PRO Projections suggest that the market adjustment has been too large.
Our NFL model projects the Giants vs. Dolphins spread at New York +3.7, translating to a 5.7% edge when compared to the widely-available +6.5.
It’s not the prettiest bet on the board, but the numbers above indicate that the Giants can keep this game close even with Mike Glennon under center.
PRO Projections Pick: Giants +6.5
_PromoID=[7201, 5651, 2339]
Jaguars vs. Rams Betting Prediction
4:05 p.m. ET | FOX
While betting on the Giants isn’t pretty, backing this Jaguars team is downright ugly, but that’s exactly what our PRO Projections suggest.
Jacksonville getting 13 points is the latest market consensus, but our model’s projection of +9.5 is showing a 5.2% edge for those willing to ignore the names on the jerseys and follow only the data.
PRO Projections Pick: Jaguars +13
_PromoID=[9406, 9421, 2339]
Ravens vs. Steelers Betting Prediction
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
The Steelers got smoked by the Bengals in Week 12 and that’s largely playing into the value of Sunday’s matchup against the Ravens.
Despite the current 4.5-point spread, our model projects the difference between the Ravens and Steelers at closer to a field goal — Pittsburgh +2.8 to be exact — earning an edge of 5.3%.
PRO Projections Pick: Steelers +4.5
_PromoID=[7203, 5508, 2339]