Raiders vs. Cowboys NFL Betting Model, Predictions: Big Money & Experts Love Spread

Cowboys vs. Raiders Odds

Odds are according to PointsBet as of Thursday

The Las Vegas Raiders will square off against the Dallas Cowboys in perhaps the most entertaining game on the Thanksgiving Day docket.

The Cowboys rank No. 4 in Football Outsiders’ total DVOA. And while the Raiders were ranked as high as No. 14 earlier this month, they’ve slipped down to No. 22 overall.

The betting markets reflect this disparity in the advanced analytics. The Cowboys are 7.5-point favorites but still have 79% of the total money on their spread at FanDuel. The Raiders at +7.5 only have 21% of the money at the sportsbook.

But the big money has different ideas about how this game may go.

Read further to see how The Action Network’s models feel about this Thanksgiving Day affair.

Raiders vs. Cowboys Big Money, Experts

The big money is on the Raiders spread at +7.5. Generally across sportsbooks, about 36% of the bets are on the Raiders to cover but 58% of the total money is on the Raiders spread.

That means that while the public is betting the Cowboys, a small minority of people are putting big money on the Raiders.

One of our PRO systems also loves the Raiders spread in this one.

The Action Network’s Fade Covering Teams system targets teams that cover a lot of games. Teams that frequently cover by large amounts will be highly respected in the market. The public will also fall in love with these teams. When books adjust, the lines figure to be inflated and these teams should statistically regress towards the mean.

This model says the Raiders at +7.5 is a good bet partly because of how often the Cowboys cover. Dallas is 8-2 this season against the spread.

The Action Network’s model has a 56% win rate with an 8% return on investment since 2005.

Meanwhile, three of our top experts are also picking the Raiders to cover in this one.

PRO Report Pick: Raiders +7.5

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