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Week 6 NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bears To Cover vs. Packers, Chiefs vs. WFT Over, More Spreads & Totals

NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions

Click on a pick to skip ahead
Bears +6 vs. Packers
Bears-Packers Under 44
Chiefs -6.5 at WFT
Chiefs-WFT Over 54.5
Colts -10 vs. Texans

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Packers at Bears

Pick
Bears +6
Under 44
Best Book

Time
1 p.m. ET

Chris Raybon: Under the direction of new play-caller Bill Lazor, the Bears have called 76 runs and only 41 passes over the past two weeks. When they do pass, they’re often going with heavy personnel and giving rookie quarterback Justin Fields time via max protection.

On defense, the Bears boast the fifth-best unit by DVOA and lead the league with 18 sacks. Meanwhile, the Packers offense has regressed from last season and is ranked just 28th in early-down success rate (47%), while Aaron Rodgers is dead-last in passer rating under pressure (31.0).

Translation: The Bears can muck up this game, putting value on them and the under.

The Bears keeping it close would align with the trend of Week 6 underdogs vs. favorites with .750 winning percentage covering nearly 70% of the time (56-25-2) since 2003, per our Action Labs data.

It would also align with the trend of Bears unders covering 62% of the time (16-10) with Matt Nagy at the helm. This includes a 14-7 (67%) under record when the Bears are averaging 5.3 or fewer yards per play — and they’re averaging just 4.2 this season.

I took the Bears at +4.5 and love them at the key number of +6, but you may want to wait until close to kickoff to take them to ensure they don’t have further COVID issues after running back Damien Williams and wide receivers coach Mike Furrey entered the COVID-19 protocol and will miss the game.

I would bet the Bears to +3 and the under down to 44.

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Chiefs at WFT

Pick
Over 54.5
Best Book

Time
1 p.m. ET

Raheem Palmer: My projections make this total 57.5, so at 54.5, there’s a ton of value.

While the Chiefs are just 2-3 on the season, Patrick Mahomes leads and offense that is first in offensive DVOA and Success Rate (55.2%), as well as second in expected points added (EPA) per play while scoring 30.8 points per game. While they struggled to score in the second half of last Sunday night’s game against the Bills, who are first in defensive DVOA, the Football Team presents an ideal matchup for this Chiefs team.

Although Washington was thought to have an elite defense coming into this season, it’s just 28th in defensive — including 29th against the pass and ninth against the run — allowing 31 points per game, second only to the Chiefs.

And while we know that the Chiefs will have no problems scoring, they’ll also give up a ton of points behind a defense that ranks dead-last in DVOA, EPA/play and Success Rate. In fact, this defense is historically bad, so I’m expecting Taylor Heinicke and this Washington offense to do their part to push this game over.

Overall, this is a matchup between two bad defenses and one elite offense, so we should see a ton of fireworks.

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Chiefs at WFT

Pick
Chiefs -6.5
Best Book

Time
1 p.m. ET

Brandon Anderson: The Chiefs have allowed 29+ points in all five games, tied for the most such games ever to start a season, but the good news is that the Football Team’s defense hasn’t been much better. As Raheem highlighted above, they rank 28th in defensive DVOA, including 29th against the pass.

That’s not gonna work against Patrick Mahomes.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out, but honestly, that may help the Chiefs. They lean too heavily on him to make good on their first-round investment, but he hasn’t been very good. All the better if the run option is removed and Mahomes has to pass on this bad secondary.

Kansas City hasn’t lived up to its lofty standard, but the sky is not falling. The Chiefs still have the NFL’s best offense, and getting them under a touchdown is a road gift. I don’t care how many one-score games Mahomes has played in — he’s going to torch this Washington secondary.

Grab the -6.5 if you can find it before the market hits -7.

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Texans at Colts

Pick
Colts -10
Best Book

Time
1 p.m. ET

Mike Randle: The popular betting opinion is that this line it too high given that Houston almost beat New England at home in Week 5. Throw in Indianapolis’ devastating overtime loss to Baltimore, and the high spread seems too good to be true.

That’s exactly why I’m backing the Colts to win in a blowout.

Indianapolis played its best game of the season in a difficult environment at Baltimore on Monday Night Football. Against one of the NFL’s top defenses, the Colts totaled more than 500 yards of offense, with Carson Wentz throwing for more than 400 yards while Jonathan Taylor totaled 169 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

The Colts now face a Texans team that ranks 30th in rush defense DVOA and have outscored 71-21 in their two road games.

Indianapolis entered this season with high expectations and has been very disappointing at its 1-4 record. But if Indy can win against Houston, and Tennessee loses to Buffalo on Monday night, then the Colts are still just one game out of first place in the AFC South.

I’m backing the Colts to win big against a Texans team with limited talent and a rookie quarterback. With Wentz healthy, Taylor dominating on the ground and veteran wideout T.Y. Hilton returning, I see a comfortable win. And the sharps seem to agree — per our public betting data, 54% of the bets are on the Texans, but 70% of the money is on the Colts.

I would take this line up to the Colts -10.5.

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