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Sunday’s Top NFL Betting Predictions: Cowboys vs. Patriots, Raiders vs. Broncos Lead Smartest Week 6 Picks

NFL betting value can come from anywhere, no matter the popularity of the teams.

There really aren’t any “small” games when it comes to the pros, but I’m not breaking news by saying that Sunday’s Cowboys vs. Patriots matchup will be much more interesting to casual bettors than Dolphins vs. Jaguars in London.

Now, that doesn’t necessarily mean that Cowboys vs. Patriots is better or worse than Dolphins vs. Jaguars, just different in terms of how they’re viewed by fans and bettors.

From strictly a value standpoint the popularity of a game doesn’t affect how smart of a bet it is either, with some of the lower-profile matchups also doubling as the best betting opportunities.

However, when it comes to Sunday’s NFL Week 6 slate, the games with the most interesting storylines are showing as the smartest bets as well, including Packers vs. Bears, Vikings vs. Panthers, Raiders vs. Broncos and the aforementioned Cowboys vs. Patriots.

Without further ado, let’s dive right into the best ways to bet these four NFL Week 6 matchups.

NFL Week 6 Betting Predictions for Sunday

*Odds and data as of Saturday afternoon

Packers vs. Bears NFL Betting Prediction

1 p.m. ET | FOX

After opening at -4.5, the Packers vs. Bears spread has moved up to Green Bay -6 and our NFL PRO Projections suggest that this number is begging for buyback.

Compared to our projection of Chicago +3.3, the ability to snag the Bears at +6 pops as a 6.5% edge, the largest of NFL Week 6.

PRO Report Pick: Bears +6

Vikings vs. Panthers NFL Betting Prediction

1 p.m. ET | FOX

OK, I’ll admit it: I threw Vikings vs. Panthers in here even though it’s probably not one of Sunday’s “most highly-anticipated games.”

But how could I leave off the weekend’s third-largest NFL betting edge?

The difference between our projected line of Carolina -0.1 and the current line of +2.5 translates to a 5.4% edge for Panthers bettors.

PRO Report Pick: Panthers +2.5

_PromoID=[213, 5577, 7050, 7197, 7783]

Raiders vs. Broncos NFL Betting Prediction

4:25 p.m. ET | CBS

Jon Gruden is out as the Raiders’ head coach, but our numbers suggest that the market may be overreacting to Las Vegas’ drama.

Our model projects this line at Raiders +2, which is a very nice +6.2% edge considering that bettors can get through the key number of 3 and lock in the widely-available +4 right now.

PRO Report Pick: Raiders +4

_PromoID=[2936, 3992, 5639, 7471, 7197]

Cowboys vs. Patriots NFL Betting Prediction

4:25 p.m. ET | CBS

While the three games above are all focused on our betting model projections, Cowboys vs. Patriots is based on market activity and historical value.

To start, big money (32% of the loot on just 23% of the tickets) from sharp bettors has driven the Pats down from +4.5 earlier this week to +3.5 right now.

New England is clearly the contrarian side of this game, and The Action Network’s Fade Covering Teams PRO Betting System adds more context as to why its also the valuable side.

With an undefeated against-the-spread record so far this season, Dallas is covering by a margin of 14.5 points as well.

Teams covering so easily are good fades this late in the season, which is the crux of the system listed above that has produced a 56% ATS win rate dating back to 2005.

New England is the ugly play, but it’s also the right play.

PRO Report Pick: Patriots +3.5

_PromoID=[3995, 5441, 7050, 7197, 2339]


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