As several teams have the day off in preparation for the final weekend of the 2020 MLB regular season, Thursday features somewhat of a light 11-game slate.
Still, there’s plenty of value to be had — at least in a couple of those 11 matchups. Check out how we’re betting Tigers vs. Royals and Brewers vs. Cardinals below.
Note: Odds as of 1 p.m. ET.
Advanced Stats Glossary
FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.
wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.
wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.
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Sean Zerillo: Tigers vs. Royals, Over 9.5 (+100), F5 Over 5.5 (+108)
- Odds available at DraftKings [Bet Now]
- First pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
I project the game total for this Tigers-Royals contest at 10.54 runs, and I would bet over 9.5 up to -109. Furthermore, I project the F5 total at 6.3 runs, and I would bet Over 5.5 at -110 or better, and Over 5 at -120 or better.
I split my wager between the two halves — playing either to win a half unit.
The Tigers have quietly crushed left-handed pitching in 2020, ranking second in all of baseball behind the White Sox with a 139 wrRC+ against southpaws, and capable of rolling out an entire lineup full of switch-hitting and right-handed bats.
Royals lefty Kris Bubic (4.51 xFIP, 4.64 SIERA) has been extremely effective through his first nine major league starts — but he has actually shown reverse splits to date (.305 wOBA vs. RHH; .398 wOBA vs. LHH) — so I’m curious to see whether the Tigers choose to deploy their left-handed bats against him.
Another intriguing factor for me, in betting this over, is the wind — currently blowing at 7 mph to left field in Kansas City.
Kaufman Stadium is the sixth most profitable park for Over bettors in such wind conditions, with a 145-122-6 (54.3%, +$1,643, 6% ROI) record since 2005 — further amplifying my confidence in the plays.
BJ Cunningham: Brewers vs. Cardinals Under 7.5 (-114)
- Odds available at DraftKings [Bet Now]
- First pitch: 8:15 p.m. ET
Corbin Burnes should be receiving a few Cy Young votes as one of the best pitchers in baseball this year.
He’s been completely un-hittable, posting a 1.77 ERA and 2.89 xFIP in 2020. He’s also been a strikeout machine, racking up a crazy 13.34 K/9, which ranks third in MLB behind only Shane Bieber and Jacob deGrom.
The reason Burnes has been so effective is his secondary pitches — all four collectively are allowing a .120 average to opponents, along with each of them producing a whiff rate better than 30%. The Cardinals have struggled against all offspeed pitches this season, so Burnes should have a big edge as he attempts to keep the Brewers’ playoff hopes alive.
Kwang-hyun Kim has been a fantastic surprise for the Cardinals after coming over from the KBO. He’s posted some really good numbers in 2020, including a 1.59 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. However, he’s been a tad fortunate to this point in the season, as his xFIP is all the way up at 4.52.
Kim mainly uses a fastball/slider combination, and so far it’s held opposing hitters at bay. Both pitches have combined to allow only a .183 average to opponents. Even though the Brewers have hit lefties well this season, they’ve struggled against fastballs and sliders so far this season.
I think this will be the lowest scoring game of the day on Thursday as I have only 6.36 runs projected for this game. Therefore, I think there is plenty of value on under 7.5 runs at -114.
[Bet Now at DraftKings, where you can get +10000 odds on either TNF moneyline tonight.]
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