This NBA season, I’m trying something new. I’m going to write a daily piece that highlights everything bettors and DFS players need to know for that night’s slate. For more on what to expect, read the inaugural piece.
On Friday I finished 5-1 for +1.7 units. While I don’t want to get sucked into the past, I think it’s worth reviewing things each day.
The best way to do that is to look at closing line value (CLV), which is just measuring whether the line you bet moved for or against you by closing.
- I bet Wizards +6.5 and it closed at Wizards +6.5 (won)
- I bet Celtics -9 and it closed at Celtics -9 (won)
- I bet Pistons under 102 points and it closed at 101.5 (won)
- I bet Pistons-Celtics (1H) under 108.5 and it closed at 108 (won)
- I bet Wolves-Nuggets under 216.5 and it closed at 215.5 (won)
- I bet Pelicans -1 and it closed at Pelicans -2 (lost)
It was a non-eventful day in terms of CLV, but thankfully it was solid in terms of results. Ironically the game I got the most value (the Pelicans with a full point), I lost the bet. That was a disappointing showing against the Warriors.
A lot of those bets were due to thinking the market had not properly adjusted for the injury situations in those games. I went heavy on the Wolves-Nuggets under with the Karl-Anthony Towns situation, along with the Pistons injuries (more on that in today’s writeup below).
Anyway, let’s dive into today’s slate and find some angles.
Note: For updates, see the chat at the bottom of this post.
YTD Record:
- Overall: 151-121-2
- Spreads: 58-52-2
- Totals: 45-41
- Moneylines: 14-6
- Props: 29-22
Odds as of Monday afternoon and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Betting Odds and Analysis
- 7 p.m. ET: Toronto Raptors at Indiana Pacers (-7), 211
- 7 p.m. ET: Chicago Bulls at Orlando Magic (-5), 207
- 7 p.m. ET: Philadelphia 76ers (-5.5) at Detroit Pistons, 215.5
- 7 p.m. ET: Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers (-1.5), 229.5
- 7 p.m. ET: Washington Wizards at New York Knicks (-3.5), 228
- 7:30 p.m. ET: Utah Jazz at Miami Heat (-4.5), 213
- 8 p.m. ET: San Antonio Spurs (-1.5) at Memphis Grizzlies, 227
- 9 p.m. ET: Denver Nuggets (-3.5) at Phoenix Suns, 217.5
- 10 p.m. ET: New Orleans Pelicans at Portland Trail Blazers (-6), 230
- 10 p.m. ET: Houston Rockets (-5.5) at Sacramento Kings, 230
- 10:30 p.m. ET: Minnesota Timberwolves (-2) at Golden State Warriors, 221
Let’s run through a couple angles I’m eyeing.
76ers at Pistons
The Pistons have been pretty darn bad lately, losing four games in a row and five of the last six. Two of their recent four have come at home to the Bulls and Wizards — not exactly juggernaut offenses. Over the last two weeks, they’re 28th in the league with a -9.3 Net Rating, ranking 21st on offense and 28th on defense.
Part of it is that they just can’t get healthy.
In their game over the weekend against the Bulls, they were out Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose. Both of those guys are questionable today, as is Luke Kennard, who played Saturday but had a rough game, going 6-of-14 from the field and posting a 27.8% turnover rate.
If all those guys are out, this team just isn’t very competitive, especially against a talented group like the Sixers. Without either of those three players on the floor, the Pistons have posted a poor -7.3 Net Rating, which is especially bad because a lot of those units have come against benches. Even if Kennard plays again, tonight’s starting lineup without Griffin has posted a -9.8 Net Rating in 178 possessions together.
Of course, the Sixers could be without Joel Embiid, who is questionable with an illness. He’s obviously been important: The Sixers have been 7.0 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor vs. off.
A lot of that is starters vs. bench disparity, however. With Embiid off but Ben Simmons, Josh Richardson and Al Horford on the floor, the 76ers have posted an excellent +18.2 Net Rating in 259 possessions. They’ve been awesome on both ends of the floor but especially offensively, mostly due to better ball protection given Embiid’s turnover issues.
You could make the argument that Embiid’s value is equal to the value of Blake and Rose, but I’m not buying that. Philadelphia is just way more talented throughout its roster, whereas the lack of two rotation players for Detroit really hurts. If any two of those three guys are out, I’ll like the 76ers with or without Embiid.
Update: Kennard has been ruled out, and Rose has been upgraded to probable. I’m still waiting on news on Griffin, who remains questionable.
Hawks at Cavaliers
Only the Wizards have a worse defense this season than the Hawks and Cavs. Atlanta has played at the sixth-fastest pace in the league, and as a result the Hawks have been profitable to the over, going 17-13. The Cavs have hit the under more often, although it’s been dead even in December.
The interesting dynamic in this game is the return of John Collins, who has been out since Oct. 31. He played just the first five games of the year.
Last season, the Hawks were 8.6 points per 100 possessions better with Collins on the floor vs. off — the highest mark on the team. Most of that was on offense, as the team increased its efficiency by a whopping 8.6 points/100. It wasn’t just his athleticism, although that’s a big part of his game: The Hawks were 5.7/100 better with him in the halfcourt — 92nd percentile in the league.
In 3,210 possessions last season — a large sample size — the Hawks posted a very solid 112.9 Offensive Rating with Collins and Trae Young on the floor together. Those units had a 55.0 eFG% mark — 90th percentile in the league. They dominated the offensive glass as well.
The defense was bad, but there’s obviously more upside with the Hawks offense now that Collins is back, and it’s important to remember this wasn’t an injury; Collins was suspended and won’t need to be eased back into the rotation. He should be 100 percent ready to go and contribute tonight: We’re projecting him to play 30 minutes.
I don’t trust the defense, but I do think the offense should improve, providing some value on the over. I don’t have a bet on the Hawks spread, but bettors seem to be intrigued by them: We’ve tracked a whopping five steam bets on the Hawks from +2.5 to +1.5 vs. just one on the Cavs.
For what it’s worth, this game matches an over/under Pro System we have at Bet Labs. There are actually four total matches tonight so far:
Jazz at Heat
This over/under opened at 212 and has moved up to 213, which is where it sits at the time of writing. We’ve tracked one steam move on the over 212 and nothing on the under, which is likely why it moved up, along with public money: The over is getting 66% of the bets and 97% of the money.
I think I’m against the public on this one, however.
It’s easy to understand why the over would be a popular bet: During the last two weeks, the Heat have been awesome offensively, ranking third in the NBA with a 116.9 Offensive Rating over that time period. Their defense has been rough, ranking 21st. Utah in the last two weeks has been 11th on both sides of the ball.
That said, the Heat have played some rough teams, including the Knicks, Grizzlies and Mavs without Luka Doncic in their last four games. They also played the Hawks and put up 135 points and a 127.4 Offensive Rating. Their overall mark has definitely been inflated against those teams.
Let’s dive a bit deeper. Since Dec. 1, the teams that have ranked 30th and 29th in the league in transition plays have been … the Heat and Jazz. They’ve been bad on those few attempts, meaning almost everything they’ve done lately has been in the halfcourt against set defenses.
These teams have had some weird blips defensively this year, but there’s obviously a lot of talent on that side of the floor, and on the season they’re both in the top-10 in halfcourt defense. They’re among the six best teams in the league in grabbing defensive rebounds, too.
The Heat are getting healthier, with Goran Dragic coming back over the weekend, but I’m still excepting this to be a slow, halfcourt affair given how they’ve both played of late. And perhaps they shoot the lights out of the ball — Miami has been crazy lucky in that regard, as I’ve written extensively about this season — but I think a median outcome trends toward the under in this one.
If you don’t want to make a pre-game wager, you can watch the first part of the game to see how the game goes. If it’s indeed a halfcourt-only affair, there will likely be some early value on the under before it adjusts.
Projected Starting Lineups and Injury News
Note: Info as of 3:30 p.m. ET. For up-to-the-minute lineups and news, see FantasyLabs’ matchups page.
Projected Lineups
- Atlanta Hawks: Trae Young – Kevin Huerter – Cam Reddish – De’Andre Hunter – John Collins
- Chicago Bulls: Tomas Satoransky – Kris Dunn – Zach LaVine – Lauri Markkanen – Wendell Carter Jr.
- Cleveland Cavaliers: Darius Garland – Collin Sexton – Cedi Osman – Kevin Love – Tristan Thompson
- Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray – Gary Harris – Will Barton – Paul Millsap – Nikola Jokic
- Detroit Pistons: Bruce Brown – Svi Mykhailiuk – Tony Snell – Blake Griffin – Andre Drummond
- Golden State Warriors: D’Angelo Russell – Damion Lee – Glenn Robinson III – Draymond Green – Willie Cauley-Stein
- Houston Rockets: Russell Westbrook – James Harden – Danuel House – PJ Tucker – Clint Capela
- Indiana Pacers: Malcolm Brogdon – Jeremy Lamb – TJ Warren – Domantas Sabonis – Myles Turner
- Memphis Grizzlies: Ja Morant – Dillon Brooks – Jae Crowder – Jaren Jackson Jr. – Jonas Valanciunas
- Miami Heat: Jimmy Butler – Kendrick Nunn – Duncan Robinson – Bam Adebayo – Meyers Leonard
- Minnesota Timberwolves: Shabazz Napier – Andrew Wiggins – Josh Okogie – Robert Covington – Karl-Anthony Towns
- New Orleans Pelicans: Jrue Holiday – JJ Redick – Brandon Ingram – Kenrich Williams – Derrick Favors
- New York Knicks: Elfrid Payton – RJ Barrett – Kevin Knox – Julius Randle – Taj Gibson
- Orlando Magic: Markelle Fultz – Evan Fournier – Aaron Gordon – Jonathan Isaac – Nikola Vucevic
- Philadelphia 76ers: Ben Simmons – Josh Richardson – Tobias Harris – Al Horford – Joel Embiid
- Phoenix Suns: Ricky Rubio – Devin Booker – Kelly Oubre – Dario Saric – Aron Baynes
- Portland Trail Blazers: Damian Lillard – CJ McCollum – Kent Bazemore – Carmelo Anthony – Hassan Whiteside
- Sacramento Kings: De’Aaron Fox – Buddy Hield – Harrison Barnes – Nemanja Bjelica – Richaun Holmes
- San Antonio Spurs: Dejounte Murray – Bryn Forbes – DeMar DeRozan – Trey Lyles – LaMarcus Aldridge
- Toronto Raptors: Kyle Lowry – Fred VanVleet – Pat McCaw – OG Anunoby – Serge Ibaka
- Utah Jazz: Donovan Mitchell – Joe Ingles – Bojan Bogdanovic – Royce O’Neale – Rudy Gobert
- Washington Wizards: Ish Smith – Bradley Beal – Isaac Bonga – Admiral Schofield – Ian Mahinmi
Injury News
- Atlanta Hawks: Evan Turner (hamstring) is doubtful. John Collins (suspended) will return.
- Chicago Bulls: Chandler Hutchison (shoulder) is TBD. Wendell Carter Jr. (abdomen), Kris Dunn (shoulder) and Zach LaVine (shoulder) are probable.
- Cleveland Cavaliers: Larry Nance Jr. (knee) is questionable.
- Denver Nuggets: Nothing new.
- Detroit Pistons: Luke Kennard (knee) is out. Blake Griffin (illness) and Bruce Brown (calf) are questionable. Derrick Rose (knee) and Christian Wood (knee) are probable.
- Golden State Warriors: Glenn Robinson III (ankle) and Eric Paschall (knee) are questionable.
- Houston Rockets: Clint Capela (heel) is probable.
- Indiana Pacers: Domantas Sabonis (hip) and Jeremy Lamb (groin) are questionable.
- Memphis Grizzlies: Jonas Valanciunas (foot) is questionable.
- Miami Heat: Justise Winslow (back) is out.
- Minnesota Timberwolves: Karl-Anthony Towns (knee) is questionable.
- New Orleans Pelicans: Nothing new.
- New York Knicks: Marcus Morris (Achilles) is doubtful. Taj Gibson (illness) is questionable.
- Orlando Magic: Michael Carter-Williams (AC joint) is out.
- Philadelphia 76ers: Joel Embiid (illness) is questionable. Raul Neto (illness) is probable.
- Phoenix Suns: Deandre Ayton (ankle) is out. Ricky Rubio (illness), Frank Kaminsky (knee) and Dario Saric (leg) are available to play.
- Portland Trail Blazers: Carmelo Anthony (knee) is questionable.
- Sacramento Kings: Bogdan Bogdanovic (ankle) is questionable.
- San Antonio Spurs: Nothing new.
- Toronto Raptors: Stanley Johnson (groin) is doubtful. Norman Powell (shoulder), Pascal Siakam (groin) and Marc Gasol (hamstring) remain out.
- Utah Jazz: Mike Conley (hamstring) remains out.
- Washington Wizards: Isaiah Thomas (suspension), Davis Bertans (quad) and Moe Wagner (ankle) are out.
Player Props
To bet props, I use our FantasyLabs player props tool. Follow me in the Action Network app to see my bets (or go to the bottom of the article), but the more important thing is the tool, which measures our projections for every player vs. current odds in the market and highlights the biggest edges for you.
Player props are an inefficient market, which allows casual bettors (limits are low, so pro bettors aren’t incentivized to prioritize them) to grab very +EV bets. That said, the lines move quickly. Our props tool is set up so you can always see whether there’s an edge even at the updated numbers throughout the day.
It’s one of my favorite tools we offer and should be one of your bookmarked pages if you like making a few extra bucks. Here’s a screenshot of what it looks like:
My usual recommendation: Bet unders.
Last season, 10-rated props in our tool hit at a 60.31% rate. But overs hit at a 57.08% rate vs. 66.47% for unders. For 9-rated props, 55.96% of overs were successful bets vs. 62.60% for unders.
As I have noted in the past, unders have more outs: A blowout, an injury, a poor shooting night — all will likely make the under hit. But also, props are less efficient as a market given the low limits, so they’re less likely to adjust for things like opponent and pace.
One under I think is intriguing is Tomas Satoransky’s 10.5-point total.
Sato has played huge minutes of late, notably going for 38 last game against the Pistons. He hasn’t been a high-usage player, but with more minutes and some really hot shooting he’s been able to hit the over on this prop in each of his last three games after going under in each of his prior six.
He’ll likely regress in all of those categories moving forward; we’re projecting him to play around 30 minutes — his regular — tonight. Further, tonight’s matchup is much more difficult than back-to-back games against an injured Detroit squad and a terrible Wizards defense. Against the slow-paced Magic, I think the sharp side is to bet against recency bias and take the under.
DFS Values and Strategy
There’s a lot of uncertainty currently in the DFS slate, as two of the four highest-priced players — Joel Embiid and Karl-Anthony Towns — are both questionable. Given their usage rates and roles, their absences would obviously create huge holes and thus value.
James Harden is the highest-priced option, and there’s not much to say about him. He’s probably not worth rostering in cash games given how large the slate is, but he’s obviously always a threat to go for 50-plus. He’s a worthy buy in GPPs given his potentially depressed ownership.
The better values are in the mid-to-high tier with guys like Bradley Beal, Andre Drummond and Damian Lillard. Beal is especially intriguing given the Wizards will be without Isaiah Thomas and Davis Bertans, along with their million other injuries. He’s going to have to be the entire offense tonight, which is obviously intriguing for fantasy. Drummond could have a huge role as well if Griffin can’t go.
Value-wise, a lot depends on the statuses of Embiid, Towns and the other big injuries on the slate (Blake, among others). Some are already somewhat obvious, like Ish Smith, who will get the start for the Wizards with Thomas out for the next two games.
But the slate will likely change a ton leading up to the 7 p.m. ET lock. Make sure to subscribe to our FantasyLabs models and check out our new Labs NBA Insiders tool to get up-to-the-minute information on injuries and projection changes.
For more DFS analysis and value plays, check out the FantasyLabs NBA models.
My Bets Currently
- Hawks/Cavs over 229.5 (I wouldn’t bet past the number)
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