On Wednesday, the Houston Astros won their 104th game of the 2019 season — setting a franchise record. On Thursday, they project to play a lineup that will not include George Springer, Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel, or Carlos Correa.
All odds above as of Thursday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
The Astros arrived in Anaheim Thursday morning, after concluding their series in Seattle, and are more or less playing their lineup that began the season in Triple-A.
Though that order does include likely American League Rookie of the Year Yordan Alvarez, this isn’t your typical Astros offense.
How should you approach playing Thursday’s Astros-Angels tilt?
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 2-6 against full-game moneylines and 1-5-2 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My plays went 5-5, and I finished up 0.22 units for the day, thanks to a live play on Oakland that fortunately came through on Matt Chapman’s late two-run homer. Before the hit, the Athletics were one for 14 with runners in scoring position on the night. It was a mostly positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 48 cents against the sides that I played; while getting the best of the number on Arizona’s moneyline (+113 to -116) as the Diamondbacks flipped from a dog to a favorite.
The one total that I played also moved my direction; as the hook disappeared from my bet on the under 8.5 in Tampa Bay.
MLB Betting Model for Thursday, Sept. 26
Stay tuned on Twitter or follow me in The Action Network App for my entire betting card for Thursday.
Today, the model recommends four full-game moneylines and four moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Angels, Marlins, Padres, and White Sox as full-game plays. The model also likes the same teams as F5 plays.
The Angels are certainly a play-on team for Thursday, as Jaime Barria’s ERA (6.43) should regress towards his 5.31 xFIP, and I would play the Angels at any price above +200; but I prefer the under in that game.
I projected the total for 8.5 runs, and it opened at 9.5. The game also fits the following BetLabs system for under betting:
That system is 133-155-9 (53.6%, +$1,094) in 2019, netting a consistent $100 bettor a 4.3% return on investment.
It’s also worth noting that, as teams head into their final series, betting the under after Game 1 in those series has been historically profitable:
As far as the recommended sides, I still see value in playing the White Sox and might look to the play Padres closer to first pitch.
Dylan Cease has been trending up for the White Sox in recent outings:
Two of his past four turns have been the best of his young career, on Sept. 3 against the Indians (6.2 IP, 2 BB, 11 K) and on Sept. 20 against the Tigers (6 IP, 2 BB, 8 K)
.@DylanCease brought the 🔥 to the mound tonight, striking out a career-high 11 batters over 6.2 IP! pic.twitter.com/watSj0WNjz
— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) September 4, 2019
I also think that the Texas Rangers are the right side in their game at home against the Red Sox.
The F5 and full game moneylines have already moved toward my number, and home teams looking to avoid a two or three or four-game sweep are 839-656 (56.1%), generating a consistent $100 bettor $7,449 (5% ROI) dating back to 2005.
I have been fading Mike Minor (3.52 ERA, 4.22 FIP, 4.66 xFIP) reasonably often in the second half of the season, but this looks like the correct spot to back the All-Star lefty.
He has a chance to reach 200-strikeouts for the first time in his career if he can generate nine punch outs on Thursday night.
Bets (so far) for Sept. 26
- Chicago White Sox (+175) Game Moneyline
- Los Angeles Angels (+212) Game Moneyline
- San Francisco Giants (-114) Game Moneyline
- Texas Rangers (-115) F5 Moneyline
- Texas Rangers (-105) Game Moneyline
- Over 8 (+108), Brewers at Reds
- Under 8.5 (-105), Marlins at Mets
- Under 9.5 (+100) Astros at Angels
Stay tuned on Twitter or follow me in The Action Network App for my entire betting card for Thursday, September 26.
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 9/26
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.