So much for tampering. The NBA free agency period started on Saturday as deals began being reported to as finalized. It was one thing when early reports had Klay Thompson deciding to re-sign with the Warriors on a max deal, but things accelerated Saturday with word that several players had agreed to terms with new teams.
One of those players was Kemba Walker, as Shams Charania from Stadium/The Athletic reported that the All-Star guard would be joining the Celtics on a four-year, $141 million deal. (No deal can become final until 6 p.m. ET on Sunday.)
The move is obviously a huge one for both the Celtics and Hornets. Let’s tackle what it means for both, along with a look at their futures odds, starting with Boston.
CELTICS GET KEMBA
So the move is largely one that supports trying to remain as competitive as possible. Walker was not going to get the supermax offer from Charlotte, so he went to an East Coast city — he’s from New York and played at UConn — with a history of winning with a roster that can still compete.
Now, there are some issues here. Walker turns 30 at the end of the season, making him much older than the other remaining members of the Celtics’ core (Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart). Their salary cap promises to be tight in 2021, with Gordon Hayward in the last year of his deal (after exercising a player option there is no way he declines) and Jaylen Brown coming up for his rookie extension.

The Celtics still have to figure out their big man spot. Losing Al Horford — as they are expected to do — will be crushing for how Boston operates. Horford was the anchor on both sides of the ball, their primary playmaker and defensive anchor.
Walker is a better and more willing passer than Irving historically, even though Irving has averaged more assists per 100 possessions than Walker in two of the last three years. (The weapons around you matter.) But Walker can’t make up for that gap with Horford, especially without a big man to draw defenses on the roll or pop.
The big knock on Walker is his size 6-foot-1 and how that impacts the defense, but that’s a false narrative. Walker is a willing and active defender. He’s physical at the point of attack and maintains contact around screens. You can shoot over him, which is why his worst defensive metric was on spot-ups per Synergy Sports, but he’s not a player you can actively target.
Walker makes the Celtics better, but he doesn’t move the needle enough for them to be a contender next season unless they absolutely nail the big man signings. That alone is a reason to wait on any bet. It’s possible (though extremely difficult) for them to get Horford back, which would radically change things. There’s no value on their futures odds — 20-1 to win title; 6-1 to win the East — at least not until we see how Gordon Hayward looks.
Their win totals went off the board at 47.5 at Draft Kings and resurfaced at 48.5 Sunday morning. There’s some value on the under there if you presume Horford is gone (he’s reportedly pursuing a 4-year, $100 million-plus offer from somewhere). There’s not another big on the market who can come close to replacing Horford on the Celtics.
Walker makes the Celtics better no doubt, but they will have to make more moves to get this team back to the title contender it looked like a year ago, even with the drop between Kyrie and Walker slimmer than most casual fans would think.
HORNETS ARE SCREWED
My unsolicited advice: Pound the Under 28.5 wins as quickly as you can. There’s talent here, there really is. Everyone acts like the Hornets are just this mess of garbage, but Nicolas Batum (when healthy) is a long, rangy wing who can shoot and pass. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is a hustle junkie on the defensive end and a great cutter. Cody Zeller is one of the most underrated bigs in terms of floor spacing and actual screening. Malik Monk and Miles Bridges have a lot of upside. Bridges, in particular, makes a lot of plays you don’t anticipate.
There’s just not enough talent to get wins without a marquee star. There are rumors of their interest in Terry Rozier which would simultaneously be a pretty smart move for the right money and not actually translate to wins.
At some point this season, the team is likely to start cutting payroll just to save against the bottom line. The Hornets’ cap situation isn’t as bad as you think. They drop to just $55.8 million next season. So they can figure out who to keep and who to move this year, probably trade Marvin Williams to a contender with an expiring deal, same with MKG and Batum’s last year even if he exercises his player option — spoiler alert, he will — will be 2020-21. They’re back to zero by 2021 … if they don’t do anything stupid in this free agency period.
UPDATE: They did something incredibly stupid, locking in Terry Rozier on $19+ million per year over three years. It doesn’t completely sink their ability to clear cap space, but it doesn’t help. Rozier became underrated last year; he was actually quite good whenever Irving was not on the floor. But this move signals Charlotte is trying to remain competitive, which is the opposite of what it should do over the next three years.
Two full tank seasons and the Hornets are back in business, but they have to stay disciplined.
But there’s no scenario I can envision, even if Batum has a bounce-back season, Bridges and Monk makes leaps, and they sign a competent starting-caliber point guard, where they get to 30 wins. This one has good value before free agency. Maybe it goes up after they sign some guys, but this also likely loses value by the time camp starts.