Friday’s NBA player props come from the two late games:
- New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns: 9 p.m. ET on FS-AZ
- Los Angeles Clippers at Sacramento Kings: 10 p.m. ET on PRIME
As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 5 p.m. ET. View live odds here.
Pelicans C Anthony Davis
The Pick: Under 8.5 Rebounds (-155)
Davis will play tonight and sit out Saturday, but his rebound prop is aggressive considering he hasn’t grabbed more than eight boards in any of the past five games since he’s been on his team-imposed minutes limit.
Davis averages 0.36 rebounds per minute, meaning he would need 25 minutes to be on pace for nine boards. The Brow hasn’t cleared 21 minutes in his past four games, an we have him projected for 20.5 tonight.
He’s landed on eight a couple of times since his minutes restriction started, so extra 0.5 rebound is important here; I would only play under eight up to standard juice.
Kings SF Bogdan Bogdanovic
The Pick: Under 5.5 Rebounds (-130)
At 5.5 with plus-money toward the over, this prop seems intended to lure bettors in via recency bias. Bogdanovic is fresh off a career-high 28 points in 43 minutes against the Bucks in a game in which he also matched a career-high with eight rebounds. In the game before that, Bogdanovic pulled down another six boards.
In the 11 games prior, though, Bogdanovic didn’t grab more than five rebounds in any single game. The Clippers struggle on the defensive glass, allowing the second-most offensive rebounds per game (11.4), but that’s not Bogdanovic’s game; he only has 23 offensive boards in 49 games played this season. In three meetings with the Clippers, he’s averaging 2.7 rebounds in 30.1 minutes.
Bogdanovic should play slightly more than that — our NBA Player Models have him projected for 31.5 — but given his season average of 3.7 boards in 28.1 minutes, he’d need roughly 46 minutes to be on pace for six. Marvin Bagley (knee) is out, but his presence on the floor has had a negligible affect on Bogdanovic’s rebounding rate, according to our NBA On/Off tool.
The 26-year-old Serbian has been under 5.5 rebounds in 16 of the 23 games (69.5%) in which he’s played 30-plus minutes, landing on five boards exactly times, so under 5.5 should have value as high as -185 (65% implied probability), while under five should have value up to -130 (56.5%).