Wiseguys posted their fourth consecutive 2-1 day on Thursday, cashing both the Hofstra-Drexel Under and App State-UL Monroe Under. After a slow start to the season, pro bettors are hitting their stride at the perfect time. Once again, they’ll be targeting undervalued over/unders and overlooked spreads.
After analyzing Friday’s short 16-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified three games receiving sharp action from professional bettors.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Rhode Island @ Dayton
7 p.m. ET | ESPN2
Sharp angle: Rhode Island (moved from +8.5 to +7)
Casual bettors largely ignore betting percentages, line movement and historical data when placing a bet. Instead, they focus almost exclusively on recent performance, won-loss records and gravitate toward favorites and home teams.
This Atlantic 10 showdown is a perfect example.
Dayton boasts an impressive 19-9 record, while Rhode Island sits one game below .500 at 13-14.
This game opened at Dayton -8.5. As you’d expect, nearly 70% of bets are laying the points with the home favorite with the far better record.
However, despite receiving heavy public support, Dayton has fallen from -8.5 to -7. Why would the books drop the spread to make it easier for public bettors to cover?
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed sharps hammer URI at +8.5 and again at +8, triggering a pair of steam and reverse line moves that forced bookmakers to adjust the line toward the road dog.
Cornell @ Yale
7 p.m. ET | ESPN+
Sharp angle: Cornell (moved from +12 to +11.5)
Pros and Joes are on completely different sides of the Ivy League grudge match.
Yale (18-5) opened as a 12-point home favorite. Currently, 68% of bets are backing the Bulldogs, yet they’ve fallen to -11.5.
What caused this sharp reverse line movement?
As always, follow the money.
Cornell is receiving only 32% of bets, but that accounts for 70% of dollars. This is a clear indication that the respected players are grabbing the points, while the $5 recreational bettors are laying them.
This massive sharp money discrepancy also makes Cornell a match for a top Bet Labs Pro System that is 55.7% against the spread (ATS) since 2005.
Quinnipiac @ Saint Peter’s
7 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Saint Peter’s (moved from +2.5 to +1.5)
This might be the sharpest play of the night for the wiseguys. On paper, it looks like a lock of the century for the public.
Quinnipiac is 15-12 and Saint Peter’s sits at an abysmal 8-20. So why did this line open with Quinnipiac as only a 2.5-point favorite?
Sharps smell a rat.
Despite receiving 73% of bets, Quinnipiac has fallen from -2.5 to -1.5. This reverse line movement was caused by an overload of smart money coming down on Saint Peter’s (27% of bets but 64% of dollars).