Betting odds: Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
- Spread: Colts -3
- Over/Under: 43
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- TV channel: NBC
>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets
Betting market: Everyone is on the Colts, which makes sense, with Marcus Mariota being ruled out. Indy is the most popular bet of the week, getting 76% of the betting tickets as of 5:30 p.m. ET on Sunday (see live data here).
This line opened at Colts -2.5, and moved all the way to -5 on Sunday after the Mariota news came out. — Mark Gallant
Playoff picture: The headline gave it away, but this is effectively a winner-take-all game.
There is only one scenario in which neither the Colts nor the Titans makes it to the postseason, and that would require the two teams to tie and the Steelers to win.
How unlikely is that? It popped up zero times in the 10,000 simulations we ran of Week 17. — Scott T. Miller
Trends to know: Since 2003, teams receiving the majority spread ticket count in Week 17’s prime-time game (like the Colts) are 11-5-1 (68.8%) against the spread. — Evan Abrams
Andrew Luck has dominated the AFC South, going 19-8-3 ATS in division games, including 15-5-2 ATS when favored, per our Bet Labs data.
As a road favorite, Luck is 7-2 ATS in division games, covering by an average of 6.9 points per game. — John Ewing
Biggest mismatch: Colts WR T.Y. Hilton vs. Titans CBs
Over the past half decade, Hilton has averaged 89.9 yards receiving per game with Luck. Hilton has also arguably never been better than this season, as he’s posted career-high marks in catch rate (64.9%), receptions (5.7) and yards per game (93.0).
The Colts No. 1 receiver has been especially strong since their Week 9 bye. Indy has gone 6-1 since with Hilton playing as a top five receiver, averaging 6.9 receptions and 122.3 yards per game and a 71.6% catch rate.
Hilton is in peak form.
The Titans’ pass defense, though, is not at its best right now. Although Tennessee ranks fourth with a 89.8 Pro Football Focus coverage grade, the defense is arguably weakest at the cornerback position.
Slot cornerback Logan Ryan (leg) is out and backup LeShaun Sims has allowed a catch rate of 73.3%. Hilton has run 26.8% of his routes from the slot this season, where he leads the Colts with 2.81 yards per route run (PFF).
Hilton will match-up with Malcolm Butler and Adoree’ Jackson on the outside. Among all cornerbacks, Butler has allowed the second-most receiving touchdowns (7) and Jackson has allowed the most receptions (63).
The Colts will likely look to get the ball to their primary playmaker in a must-win game, and Hilton has the ability to exploit this matchup. — Matthew Freedman
Which team is healthier? Titans
This winner-gets-in matchup should feature a Game 7-esque atmosphere in Tennessee.
The Titans will be without Mariota (stinger) and could be missing linebacker Brian Orakpo (elbow), while receivers Tajae Sharpe (ankle) and Corey Davis (hamstring) might not be at 100%.
The Colts have an abundance of injury issues. Starting offensive linemen Ryan Kelly (neck) and Mark Glowinski (ankle) join tight end Eric Ebron (concussion) and backup receivers Dontrelle Inman (shoulder) and Zach Pascal (knee) as question marks ahead of Sunday.
The good news for Indy is that Hilton (ankle) already said he’ll play.
The bad news? The defense is also dealing with injuries to safeties Malik Hooker (hip) and Clayton Geathers (knee), linebackers Matthew Adams (groin) and Anthony Walker (shoulder), along with as defensive end Jabaal Sheard (teeth).
Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz
DFS edge: While this game isn’t on the main slate, it’ll be available for DraftKings’ and FanDuel’s single-game slates.
Luck and Hilton will be very high owned in those formats, but it would be difficult not to have some exposure to them.
Luck has averaged an absurd 10.47 adjusted yards per attempt when targeting Hilton this season, who has dominated the Titans with Luck at quarterback. — Justin Bailey
https://twitter.com/Ihartitz/status/1078075207330553856
Bet to watch: Titans
I bet this earlier in the week at +3.5 and still like it at the current number, even with Mariota out.
The Titans are divisional dogs with a low total, which has a profitable spot since 2003. They’re also in prime fade-the-public territory. They’re getting only 24% of bets in what will be the most heavily bet game of the day, giving them massive contrarian value if those percentages hold as more wagers flow in.
Teams getting fewer than 30% of bets are 62% ATS this season. — Josh Appelbaum
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.