In gambling circles, “sharps” (also known as wiseguys) are professional bettors with long track records of success.
They don’t bet games based on bias or gut instinct. Instead, they are 100% analytical and value-driven.
Wiseguys bet numbers, not teams. When they place big wagers on a game, they force bookmakers to move the lines.
By using the betting tools available at The Action Network and Sports Insights, we can track how sharps are affecting betting lines for every NFL game.
Last Sunday, wiseguys went 3-0 with their plays. Which teams/totals are they betting in Week 16?
>> All odds as of 1:45 p.m. ET on Saturday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
- Sharp angle: Panthers (+4 to +3)
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
One of the biggest mistakes recreational bettors make is overreacting to injuries, especially when it comes to big name players. Cam Newton has been shut down for the season and the Panthers will start Taylor Heinicke in his place — wait, who?
Average Joes see an automatic Carolina fade with an unknown backup under center. But not the sharps. As always, they’re capitalizing on public bias. Extract additional value by buying on bad news and selling on good news, as the sharp mantra goes.
This game opened at Falcons -3. Public betting (nearly 65% of bets) pushed Atlanta up to -4. That’s when sharps got down hard on Carolina at an inflated number.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed five separate steam and reverse line moves on the Panthers. Sharps hit Carolina twice at +4, but then came back three more times on Carolina +3. This overload of smart money dropped the Panthers to +2.5 before the line evened back out at +3.
Carolina also finds themselves in a profitable historical spot. They’re a divisional dog with a relatively low total (44) and also match a top Bet Labs PRO system that is 63.3% against the spread since 2003 with +47 units won and a 22.9% ROI.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins
- Sharp angle: Under (moved from 39.5 to 38)
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
Public bettors are psychologically biased toward betting overs. If they’re going to bet a total, they want to root for a high-scoring, action packed game and cash in the end. It’s just not fun rooting for missed kicks and long drives that don’t result in points.
However, average Joes are having a hard time with this one because they see two putrid offenses (gotta be an under) and a super low total (it’s gotta go over). As a result, they don’t know which way to go.
Not the sharps. They’ve taken a clear side.
The total opened at 39.5. Currently 52% of bets are going under, but 76% of dollars are going under. This signals public indecision, but also heavy smart money.
As soon as the line was available, wiseguys hammered the under at 39.5, triggering a trio of steam and reverse line moves. Later on, we tracked another reverse line moves on Under 39. This overload of respected money dropped the total all the way down to 38. The under 38 is currently juiced up to -115, signaling it may fall even further to 37.5.
An added bonus for sharps on the under: Jacksonville and Miami rank 24th and 30th, respectively, in pace. This means they chew up the clock and don’t run as many plays, leading to low-scoring games. Also, the forecast calls for 8 MPH crosswinds in Miami, a cherry on top for wiseguys sweating an old fashioned 17-14 game.
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers
- Sharp angle: 49ers (+5 or +4.5)
- Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
On paper, this looks like a Bears blowout, but if it looks too good to be true, chances are it is.
Chicago opened as a 4.5-point road favorite. Currently 70% of bets are laying the points with Mitchell Trubisky. However, despite this lopsided public betting, the line hasn’t moved too far from the opener.
We’ve tracked eight different steam and reverse line moves on the Niners at either +4.5 or +4. This heavy smart money dropped them down to +3.5 at one point, before some late buyback pushed it back to +4.5 or +5, depending on the book.
The 49ers also enjoy a massive bets vs dollars discrepancy. They’re only getting 32% of bets (making them one of the top contrarian plays on Sunday), but 53% of dollars, further evidence of big sharp wagers grabbing the points, not laying them.
