Week 16 of the NFL regular season is when most fantasy football leagues have their championship matchups. If you’re competing for a title this weekend, congratulations.
Now let’s get that victory.
Here are five championship-winning tips from Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon and Matthew Freedman.
1. Don’t Panic or Be Driven by Fear
Sean Koerner: The biggest mistake you can make is to panic. It’s OK to be nervous about your sit/start decisions, as one wrong move could cost you the title. But don’t overthink the situation. Your only goal is to set the lineup that increases your chances of winning. You’re not trying to start the “perfect lineup.” You’re not trying to score the most points possible.
Too often people set finals lineups out of fear. Example: There will be someone out there who says …
Jared Goff has been brutal the past few games, and Josh Allen has been the No. 1 fantasy quarterback over that time. Sean’s rankings say to start Goff, but I’m scared Allen will outscore him on my bench. What do I do? What do I do?! Screw it, I’m starting Allen.
Goff’s higher ranking doesn’t mean that he has a 100% chance of outscoring Allen. To be specific, I put Goff’s odds of outscoring Allen at roughly 55%.
My point is that I view this decision like every other decision: in terms of probability.
Go with the options who have the likelier outcomes. You can pull your hair out thinking about the 45% of the time that Allen will score more points on your bench than Goff does in your lineup, but in the long run that’s a -EV move.
On Sunday morning, I’ll update my rankings after inactives are announced. Be sure to check out my rankings then to see where I come down on all your crucial sit/start decisions.
2. Don’t Let the Stakes Alter Your Lineup-Setting Process
Chris Raybon: This is similar to Point No. 1, but it’s more encompassing. Whether it’s panic or fear or anything else, don’t let anything change your process.
I’m not saying that you need to start “the players that got you there.” Start them if they’re the best options for your lineup this week. If they’re not, then pivot to other players, just as you would in any other week.
I’m saying that you shouldn’t get cute.
For example, don’t make start/sit decisions based on correlations to players in your opponent’s lineup. If your opponent is starting Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen and tight end Kyle Rudolph, that doesn’t mean you should bench your primary quarterback and start Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins to try to “protect” yourself against Thielen and Rudolph going off.
Treat this week like any other week.
3. Handicap the Matchup
Matthew Freedman: I’ll add to what Sean and Chris have said with this: Take a good look at your team. Know it. Understand where you are strong. Explore where you are weak.
And then look at your opponent’s team. What are the strengths and weaknesses? In this matchup, are you the favorite? Or are you the underdog?
If you’re the favorite, then you should start the players who have high floors and reasonably probable median projections. (You can use our FantasyLabs Models to find these numbers.) You’re not looking to do anything fancy. You’re just looking to put together a lineup that won’t lose the championship for you. You’re looking for consistency.
But if you’re the dog, then you need to take some chances. You should seek risk. You must embrace at least a little volatility. If you think you’re unlikely to win with a more conventional lineup, then consider your options. Might your odds of winning increase if you replace a few of your low-end starters with boom/bust players who have lower floors but higher ceilings?
Basically, I’m saying you need to handicap the matchup.
Some people set their lineups without even considering who’s starting on the other side. Given that your goal is not to score as many points as possible but simply to score more points than your opponent does, you should analyze the matchup and think about what kind of starting lineup gives you the greatest chance to win.
4. Use Your Bench to Block Your Opponent
Chris Raybon: Drop any players you and your opponent have no use for and pick up players who could potentially upgrade your opponent’s lineup.
For example, if you have George Kittle at tight end and are also set at flex with a strong running back, and if your opponent somehow has Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce but also a shaky defense/special teams unit, then you can drop someone like Jared Cook to snipe a defense your opponent might look to add.
It’s always possible that your opponent won’t start the lineup-setting process until late Saturday or early Sunday, not realizing until it’s too late that a position on the roster needs to be upgraded.
5. If You Have a Lead and Your Opponent Has No Players Left, Bench Your Remaining Starters
Chris Raybon: If you have a lead and your opponent is out of players, but you still have, say, your defense yet to play, get the defense out of your lineup and leave the slot empty (if your league allows).
Don’t be the person who loses a championship because an unnecessary player scores negative points.
Defense is the likeliest to put up a negative total, but this applies to all positions. I’ve seen fantasy dreams crushed by a removable running back who fumbled on his first carry and got hurt on his second.
BONUS: Bench Steelers Wide Receiver Antonio Brown
Matthew Freedman: Joking … unless you have at least three (other, non-Antonio) top-10 wide receivers.
Meet Our Fantasy Football Rankings Experts
Sean Koerner is The Action Network’s Director of Predictive Analytics and has been the No. 1 in-season FantasyPros ranker for three straight seasons.
Chris Raybon is a Senior Editor at The Action Network and a co-host of “I’ll Take That Bet” on ESPN+. He has watched every play of every NFL game since 2010.
Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs and finished sixth overall in last year’s FantasyPros competition.
