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Week 15 NFL Matchup Manifesto: Derek Carr, Jeff Driskel Poised for Success Against Bad Defenses

The NFL is a matchup-driven league. Offensive coordinators are always looking to scheme their playmakers into one-on-one situations against a defender, while defensive coordinators will attempt to do anything in their power to upset the timing and rhythm of the opposing quarterback.

Despite the obvious impact that defenses have on opposing offenses, fantasy players are often left with one-way metrics to describe offenses and defenses that they are then forced to compare against each other in an attempt to identify mismatches.

The goal here is to provide easy-to-decipher charts and notes to identify each week’s key matchups on both sides of the ball in:

  • Explosive Plays
  • Pace
  • Pressure
  • Trench Battles
  • Turnover Margin
  • Passing Game

Last week’s manifesto correctly forecasted underwhelming performances for Deshaun Watson and Mitchell Trubisky, solid rushing days for Aaron Jones and Austin Ekeler as well as uber-efficient passing performances from Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady.

The following charts display matchup-specific information meant to highlight the largest mismatches in these ever-important facets of football to ultimately gain actionable betting and fantasy takeaways.

Note: This data is based on what has happened in Weeks 1-14.



Explosive Plays

Big plays make the football world go round. Matchups between explosive offenses and leaky defenses are exactly what we’re looking for when compiling game stacks in DFS, or when betting an over. We can calculate this with help from NFL.com’s team-based statistics.

  • Explosive Pass Rate: The sum of an offense’s rate of 20-plus yard completions per pass attempt and the opposing defense’s rate of 20-plus yard completions allowed per pass attempt. A higher percentage is better for offenses (green is good, red is bad).
  • Explosive Run Rate: The sum of an offense’s rate of 20-plus yard gains per rush attempt and the opposing defense’s rate of 20-plus yard runs allowed per rush attempt. A higher percentage is better for offenses (green is good, red is bad).

  • Thursday night’s Chargers-Chiefs matchup could feature some high-octane offense. They join the Rams as the league’s only offenses with an explosive pass play rate of at least 13%.
  • Still, the over/under has dropped to 53.5 after opening at 56.5 (see live odds here). Estimated forecasts currently call for a 24% chance of precipitation with 14 mph winds in 37 degree weather at Arrowhead.
  • Other pass offenses that are set up well to create explosive plays in the passing game include the Browns, Raiders, Bengals, Titans, 49ers, Rams and Saints.
  • Matchups in which both passing games should create chunk plays include Raiders-Bengals, Eagles-Rams, Chargers-Chiefs, Seahawks-49ers and Saints-Panthers. Surprisingly, each of these over/unders have dropped since opening.
  • Rush offenses that are set up to break off big runs include the Chargers, Browns, Vikings and Rams.
  • Running backs from the Chiefs, Texans, Broncos, Bears, Bengals, Giants, 49ers and Eagles are also positioned better than usual to create some explosive runs.
  • The Jets, Buccaneers, Jaguars, Colts and Saints stand out as offenses that could struggle to consistently rip off chunk plays on the ground.
  • Offenses that aren’t poised for many big plays through the air this week include the Packers, Lions, Cardinals and Colts.
  • The Falcons, Redskins and Cowboys aren’t set up much better, although Dak Prescott’s recent play with Amari Cooper would certainly suggest otherwise.

Pace

Fast-paced games lead to more plays, which lead to more points. There are several games that could resemble a track meet based on their combined situation-neutral pace ranking (Football Outsiders).

  • Combined Situation-Neutral Pace: Represents the combined situation-neutral pace between each matchup’s two offenses. A lower number indicates fewer average seconds per play (green = fast-paced game), while a higher number indicates more average seconds per play (red = slow-paced game).

  • The week’s three fastest-paced matchups feature the Buccaneers (No. 6 in situation neutral pace) and Ravens (No. 4), the Cowboys (No. 22) and Colts (No. 2) as well as the Patriots (No. 1) and Steelers (No. 9).
  • Other matchups that could more closely resemble a track meet than a football game include the Chargers-Chiefs, Browns-Broncos and Eagles-Rams matchups.
  • The week’s slowest paced matchups feature the Lions (No. 32) and Bills (No. 16), the Dolphins (No. 28) and Vikings (No. 21) as well as the Redskins (No. 31) and Jaguars (No. 24).
  • Titans-Giants, Texans-Jets, Raiders-Bengals and Saints-Panthers also aren’t expected to move at a blistering pace. All three over/unders have dropped since opening.


Pressure

An overmatched offensive line can result in poor fantasy days for all skill-position players involved. Meanwhile, quarterbacks with all day to throw can help generate points in bunches. We can determine which offensive lines might be especially better (or worse) this week with help from Pro Football Focus’ offensive and defensive pressure statistics.

  • Combined Pressure Rate: The sum of the offensive line’s rate of pressures allowed per dropback and the opposing defense’s total pressures generated per dropback. A higher percentage (red) is better for defenses, while a lower percentage (green) indicates that matchup’s quarterback could face reduced pressure.

  • Deshaun Watson is the quarterback most at risk of having his afternoon curtailed by constant pressure. He’s been pressured on a league-high 43% of his dropbacks after 14 weeks.
  • Josh Rosen (40%) is the only other quarterback even close to Watson.
  • Other quarterbacks who could be overwhelmed by pressure include Jameis Winston, Ryan Tannehill, Cody Kessler, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles and Jared Goff.
  • Matchups featuring two pass rushes that could make life tough on opposing quarterback include Packers-Bears, Lions-Bills, Dolphins-Vikings, Redskins-Jaguars, Seahawks-49ers and Eagles-Rams.
  • Seven defenses have racked up a pressure on at least 50% of their opposing quarterback’s dropbacks: Eagles (55%), Rams (54%), Packers (52%), Jaguars (51%), Ravens (51%), Bills (50%) and Jets (50%).
  • The Bengals’ offensive line is most likely to give its quarterback all day to throw. This is usually the case against the Raiders, who have pressured opposing quarterbacks on a league-low 27% of their dropbacks.
  • The Browns (38%), Falcons (39%) and Buccaneers (39%) are the only other defenses under even 40%.
  • Other quarterbacks that should have plenty of time to throw include Baker Mayfield, Case Keenum, Lamar Jackson, Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees.
  • Raiders-Bengals might look ugly on paper, but neither quarterback is expected to face an alarming amount of pressure. This is particularly good news for Carr, who has played better this season than most want to believe.

Trench Battles

Running backs receive most of the praise for an offense’s rushing output, but an overmatched offensive line can thwart a team’s run game before it even has a chance to get started. We can determine the offensive lines that might be especially better (or worse) off this week with help from Football Outsiders‘ offensive and defensive adjusted line yards per rush statistics.

  • Combined Adjusted Line Yards Per Rush: The sum of an offensive line’s adjusted line yards per rush and the opposing defense’s adjusted line yards allowed per rush. A higher number (green) is good for running backs, while a lower number (red) indicates that matchup’s offense could have some trouble running the ball.

  • The Chargers’ and Rams’ offensive lines are in the best positions to create consistent success on the ground.
  • Be sure to monitor our NFL News Feed to see whether Melvin Gordon (knee, game-time decision) is ultimately able to suit up on Thursday. Austin Ekeler (neck, concussion) has already been ruled out, so Justin Jackson could wind up working as the offense’s featured back in this plus matchup against the Chiefs’ league-worst defense in Football Outsiders’ rush DVOA.
  • Other running backs who are set up for success include David Johnson, Doug Martin/Jalen Richard and Leonard Fournette. Johnson in particular could thrive against the Falcons’ league-worst defense against receiving running backs.
  • Offensive lines that could struggle to consistently open holes include the Jets, Buccaneers and Redskins.
  • Running backs on the Panthers, Titans and Lions also aren’t set up well in the run game.
  • Of course, half of fantasy football is simply figuring out who will wind up getting the most touches. Be sure to monitor our Week 15 Injury Report for the eventual statuses of Jets running backs Isaiah Crowell (toe), Trenton Cannon (toe) and Elijah McGuire (ankle), as the absence of either Crowell or Cannon back could lead to plenty of snaps for McGuire.

Turnovers

Matchups between two careless teams are obviously of interest when it comes to targeting fantasy defenses. Crafting a turnover differential for each individual matchup between an offense and defense can help identify when turnover-prone offenses are taking on ball-hawking defenses.

  • Combined Turnover Rate: The sum of the offense’s turnover rate and the opposing defense’s takeaway rate. A higher percentage (red) is better for defenses, while a lower percentage (green) is better for offenses and indicates the absence of a turnover-prone offense or takeaway-happy defense.

  • Matchups that could feature sloppy play on both sidelines include Browns-Broncos, Packers-Bears, Lions-Bills, Dolphins-Vikings and Cowboys-Colts.
  • The Seahawks stand out as the week’s best-positioned offense to not turn the ball over.
  • Other offenses that aren’t expected to make a habit of giving away the football include the Ravens, Falcons, Giants, Patriots and Rams.
  • Offenses that are expected to have trouble taking care of the football include the Jets, Jaguars and 49ers. The Packers, Bills, Vikings and Eagles aren’t set up that much better.
  • The Bills could struggle if the Lions are able to take away the very thing that they do best: Let Josh Allen run around like a wild man.

Passing Game

Some pass offenses are obviously more efficient than others, while certain secondaries are seemingly capable of shutting down any aerial attack. We can determine the week’s largest mismatches in the passing game using each offense’s and defense’s net yards per pass attempt (via Pro Football Reference).

  • Combined Net Yards Per Pass Attempt: Net yards gained per pass attempt differs from yards per attempt by accounting for sacks. The rate is calculated by subtracting a quarterback’s sack yards from his passing yards, then dividing that number by the sum of the quarterback’s pass attempts and sacks taken. A higher number (green) is good for quarterbacks and receivers, while a lower number (red) indicates that matchup’s pass offense could be in trouble.

  • The quarterbacks best positioned for success through the air this week are Philip Rivers, Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff and Drew Brees.
  • Jeff Driskel is also set up exceptionally well, although his rates are influenced by Andy Dalton’s numbers from earlier this season.
  • Matchups featuring competent passing games on both sidelines include Chargers-Chiefs, Raiders-Bengals, Patriots-Steelers and Saints-Panthers.
  • Passing games that could struggle to find much success include the Packers, Lions, Bills, Cardinals and Redskins.
  • There are several matchups featuring potentially incompetent pass offenses on both sides of the ball, including Packers-Bears, Lions-Bills as well as the Redskins-Jaguars.
  • Marcus Mariota and the Titans should provide a decent test for a Giants defense that has faced Nick Mullens, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Carson Wentz, Chase Daniel and Mark Sanchez since their Week 9 bye.


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