Another big favorite went down last week as Pittsburgh lost in Oakland. It’s another reminder that we can always try to make the best decisions possible, but I never said there wasn’t any luck involved.
If you have made it this far, the luck has been on your side (as well as being smart enough to check out this article every week).
Here are the projected win percentages for the final three weeks of the season.
There are a surprisingly large number of teams that are good options this week. Seven teams cross the 70% threshold that I like to target and another three barely missed.
The issue, of course, is that you have likely used a lot of these teams already as they have been the best options all season long.
Here are the top choices this week along with their key statistics and projected ownership in larger pools.
A high percentage of picks are gravitating toward the Falcons and Texans. The Falcons are the most likely team to win according to the model and that makes sense considering their struggles this season.
Even though they are the most popular, I don’t think that should prevent you from taking the Falcons this week. We always like to be contrarian, but 30% of picks isn’t enough to scare me.
I do think if you have another team toward the top, then you can differentiate. Most notably, the Jaguars are big favorites against the Redskins, who are seemingly on their 15th quarterback.
One thing you should also be doing is looking at which teams your opponents have left. If they don’t have Atlanta as an option then you can safely plug it in this week.
If everyone in your pool has been saving Atlanta for this week, then you might want to differentiate yourself and go Jacksonville, Baltimore or one of the other teams at the top.
The Pick: Atlanta Falcons or Jacksonville Jaguars
Again, look at your unique situation and see which team gives you a chance to win your entire pool.
The Rams (now updated to include the news that Carson Wentz could miss Sunday’s game) are also a great contrarian option, but they also have two promising matchups (at Cardinals and vs. 49ers) to finish the season.
If you’ve saved the Rams to this point, it’s likely that you’ll need them more in Week 16 or 17.
As always, if you have any questions feel free to ask me on twitter @BetLabsTravis and I’ll be happy to give you my advice.
