In gambling circles, “sharps” (also known as wiseguys) are professional bettors with long track records of success.
They don’t bet games based on bias or gut instinct. Instead, they are 100% analytical and value-driven.
Wiseguys bet numbers, not teams. When they place big wagers on a game, they force bookmakers to move the lines.
By using the betting tools available at The Action Network and Sports Insights, we can track how sharps are affecting betting lines for every NFL Week 12 game.
>> All odds as of 4 p.m. ET on Saturday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Now let’s get to the games!
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
- Sharp angle: Under (47.5)
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
Sharps and squares don’t know which side of the spread to get down on in this NFC East grudge match (Eagles are -5 with a slight edge in bet tickets percentage). However, pros have taken a clear side on the total.
The over/under opened at 46.5. Heavy public betting on the Over (70%) caused the line to rise above the key number of 47, providing Goodfellas an inflated number. Once it hit 47.5 and the hook became available, sharps pounced on the under 47.5.
There are two big reasons why sharps are eyeing the under. First, the weather calls for 7-10 MPH crosswinds. Since 2003, windy unders (5 MPH or more) with either an inflated line (rises) or line freeze (over/under stays the same) have hit at a 54.2% clip.
The under also fits the profitable Bet Labs PRO system Divisional Unders (61.7% since 2003). When two teams from the same division play each other, the under hits at a high rate because of the built in familiarity, especially later in the season when weather plays a bigger role.
New England Patriots at New York Jets
- Sharp angle: Jets (+10.5)
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
Sharps are fearless, but they aren’t stupid. They know the Patriots are the exception to the betting rule: Belichick and Brady are almost always a massive favorite with huge public support, and yet they almost always cover (New England is 150-92 ATS, 62% since 2003).
However, value is value. Remember, sharps bet numbers, not players or teams.
The Pats opened as a 7.5-point road favorite. An unbelievable 85% of bettors are laying the points (by far the most lopsided play on Sunday), expecting an easy New England blowout after the bye.
This incredibly heavy public betting pushed the Patriots from -7.5 to -10.5. Once the Jets reached double-digits on the spread (especially with the key hook or +10.5), sharps got down hard on NYJ, triggering five separate steam and reverse line moves.
The Jets are only getting 10% of bets but 20% of dollars, signaling smart money on their side. New York also fits the profitable Bet Labs PRO system Team ATS Record (61.6% ATS since 2003).
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
- Sharp angle: Dolphins (+10 to +7.5)
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
Not all .500 teams are created equal, especially in the minds of recency biased public bettors.
The Colts are quietly one of the hottest teams in football. After starting off 1-5, Andrew Luck and company have won four straight. Meanwhile, the 5-5 Fins started 3-0 but are just 2-5 in their last seven.
As a result, average Joes can’t help but ride the hot home favorite. But sharps are buying low on Miami with Ryan Tannehill back under center.
This line opened at Colts -10. Despite receiving nearly 60% of bets, Indy has fallen all the way to -7.5.
What caused this massive reverse line movement toward Miami? Sharps across the offshore market steamed Miami at +10 and +9, forcing bookmakers to drop the line.
Miami is only receiving 42% of bets, but 63% of dollars– further evidence of smart money in their favor. The Dolphins also fit two profitable Bet Labs PRO systems: Fade Streaks (56.4% ATS since 2003) and Road Streaks with Line Moves (64.5% ATS since 2003).
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
- Sharp angle: Broncos (+3.5 to +3)
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
No Le’Veon Bell, no problem.
The 7-2-1 Steelers have ripped off six wins in a row, including a thrilling comeback last week in which they rallied from a 16-0 deficit to win at the last second (but not cover) in Jacksonville.
This week they’re only laying a few points on the road against 4-6 Denver. Steelers all day, right?
No so fast, say the wiseguys. This line opened at Steelers -3.5. The public can’t lay the points quick enough. However, despite receiving nearly 75% of bets, Ben Roethlisberger and the crew have fallen from +3.5 to +3.
Sharps at three different offshore sportsbooks pounced on Denver at +3.5, forcing the Broncos to fall off the hook back down to the key number of 3. Although the line has already fallen a half point, it may fall even further: currently Denver +3 is juiced up to -115, signaling it may drop to +2.5.
