The NFL is a matchup-driven league. The goal here is to break down the following key matchups in Chicago Bears-Detroit Lions, Washington Redskins-Dallas Cowboys and Atlanta Falcons-New Orleans Saints:
- Directional Passer Rating
- Yards Per Attempt by Position
- Directional Adjusted Line Yards per Rush
- WR/CB Snap and Physical Profiles
- WR/CB Combined Yards Per Route Run
What follows is essentially a condensed version of my weekly matchup analysis for every game.
The following charts highlight the largest mismatches that will ultimately help you gain actionable betting and fantasy takeaways for these Thanksgiving Day showdowns.
Note: This data is based on what has happened in Weeks 1-11
Quarterbacks
Be sure to monitor our Week 12 Injury Report to see if MitchellTrubisky (right shoulder, doubtful) is ultimately able to suit up on Thursday afternoon. Chase Daniel will takeover under center if Trubisky can’t play.
The rest of the slate’s quarterback situations are fairly straightforward. Trubisky or Daniel will be squaring off with Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott will face Colt McCoy with Alex Smith (broken leg, IR) done for the season, and Matt Ryan and Drew Brees will once again compete against each other.
We can calculate how well each of these quarterbacks are set up when throwing to different areas of the field with help from Sharp Football Stats. Pro Football Reference also provides enough information to calculate each offense’s and defense’s yards per attempt to each position.
- Combined Directional Passer Rating: The sum of each quarterback’s passer rating to each area of the field and the opposing defense’s passer rating allowed to the same area. A higher number is better for the quarterback (green), while a lower number is good news for the defense (red).
- Combined Position-Specific Yards per Attempt: The sum of each quarterback’s average yards per attempt to each position with the opposing defense’s yards per attempt allowed to the same position. A higher number is better for that position and quarterback (green), while a lower number could lead to a more definitive defensive advantage (red).
- The Saints and Falcons unsurprisingly boast the top-two pass offenses playing on Thanksgiving Day, but the Bears are actually a close third thanks to their explosiveness and tasty matchup against the Lions’ 31st-ranked defense in Football Outsiders’ pass DVOA.
- Obviously the presence of Chase Daniel under center would change the outlook for the Bears’ passing attack. Daniel hasn’t exactly stuffed the stat sheet in his career, but the man has been paid.
Chase Daniel entered the NFL in 2009 as an undrafted free agent
Daniel has thrown 78 career passes, 1 TD and has a 1-1 record as a starter
Career earnings: $24,304,317 AKA $311,593 per pass attempt pic.twitter.com/Yf3Cuv6LoU
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) August 1, 2018
- Still, Daniel at least has plenty of experience in Matt Nagy’s system dating back to their time together with the Chiefs.
- The Bears are best equipped to attack the Lions’ zone-heavy defense in the shorter areas of the field, which means Anthony Miller, Tarik Cohen and Trey Burton could be in for big afternoons.
- The Bears’ outlook is less optimistic down the field, so big plays to Allen Robinson and Taylor Gabriel could be tough to come by.
- The Lions have Thanksgiving’s worst overall matchup in combined overall passer rating. Stafford has throw for more than two touchdowns only once this season, and has fewer than 275 pass yards in five of his past six games.
- The one area in which the Lions could attack the Bears is with Kenny Golladay deep down the right sideline.
- The Redskins could certainly decide to change their offense based on their new starting quarterback’s skill-set. Still, we shouldn’t expect a suddenly explosive downfield attack, as McCoy’s average target depth of 7.3 yards in four starts in 2014 is lower than Smith’s 2018 average of 8.6 yards.
- Prescott isn’t set up much better, although he’s certainly been a better quarterback since the team acquired Amari Cooper. Overall, Prescott posted a 62% completion rate and averaged 6.88 yards per attempts in Weeks 1-7 compared to a 70% rate and 7.28 yards per attempt in Weeks 9-11.
- The Redskins and the Cowboys are most vulnerable on passes deep down the middle of the field. The Redskins attempted to solve this problem by acquiring Ha Ha Clinton-Dix from the Packers — Pro Football Focus’ No. 5 overall safety this season. And this is why Earl Thomas to the Cowboys made so much sense.
- Basically the only area of the field that could be considered a below-average spot to throw in Falcons-Saints is deep against stud No. 1 cornerback Marshon Lattimore.
- In terms of combined passer rating, Falcons-Saints boasts a more quarterback-friendly game setting than Chiefs-Rams did.
Running Backs
The Bears have utilized Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard in a two-headed committee all season, while the Lions could use a three-back committee featuring LeGarrette Blount, Theo Riddick and Zach Zenner with stud rookie Kerryon Johnson (knee) ruled out.
The respective backfields of the Cowboys and Redskins will be led by Ezekiel Elliott and Adrian Peterson. The Saints and Falcons each utilize two-back committees, with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram along with Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith all seeing plenty of action.
We can calculate where each back’s offensive lines hold the best advantages against their opponent’s defensive line with help from the fine folks at Football Outsiders — specifically, their adjusted line yards per rush metric, which takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on an opponent-adjusted set of variables.
- Combined Directional Adjusted Line Yards per Rush: The sum of an offensive line’s adjusted line yards per rush to a certain area of the line and the opposing defense’s adjusted line yards allowed per rush to the same area. A higher number (green) is good for running backs, while a lower number (red) indicates that matchup’s offense could have some trouble running the ball.
- The Lions’ rush defense has been even better since adding run-stuffer Damon Harrison.
- Exposure to the Bears backfield is probably best used on Cohen considering the offensive line boasts superior advantages around left end and left tackle than up the middle where Howard thrives.
- The Lions aren’t expected to have much success controlling the line of scrimmage. This won’t exactly be anything new; Blount has 16 rushing yards and zero touchdowns on his last 21 carries.
- The Redskins aren’t expected to have much success running the ball against the Cowboys’ league-best defensive line in adjusted line yards per rush.
- Peterson totaled 107 total yards on 25 touches during the first matchup between these teams, but that was with left tackle Trent Williams (thumb, questionable), right guard Brandon Scherff (pec, IR) and left guard Shawn Lauvao (knee, IR).
- Note that Byron Marshall out-snapped Kapri Bibbs 17 to 16 last week.
- Elliott is once again set up well against a Redskins defense that he’s averaged 100.8 total yards and 1.25 touchdowns against in four career games.
- The Redskins did hold Zeke to just 33 yards on 15 carries in their first matchup. Their defensive line doesn’t grade out very well, but linebacker Zach Brown (No. 2) along with safeties D.J. Swearinger (No. 4) and Clinton Dix (No. 5) have earned top-five grades at their position from PFF.
- The Falcons haven’t done a great job controlling the line of scrimmage, and this matchup against the Saints’ second-ranked defensive line in adjusted line yards allowed per rush won’t help matters.
- Kamara and Ingram are set up well in virtually every direction except left tackle, where they’ll inconveniently also be without starting left tackle Terron Armstead (shoulder).
- The Falcons have also allowed the most receptions and receiving yards to opposing running backs this season. Stud linebacker Deion Jones (foot) is questionable to return to action.
Wide Receivers
There’s plenty of talent in all three matchups on the outside with Allen Robinson, Kenny Golladay, Jordan Reed, Amari Cooper, Julio Jones and Michael Thomas all being big-bodied threats who must be accounted for.
There’s also plenty to pay attention to on the other side of the ball. Each game should feature at least one shadow matchup, as Lions cornerback Darius Slay, Redskins corner Josh Norman and Saints corner Marshon Lattimore are tentatively expected to shadow A-Rob, Cooper and Jones, respectively.
We can determine where each receiver will line up, as well as which cornerback they’ll see the most of with help from the snap counts provided by PFF. We’ll also use PFF to compare each receiver and defender’s respective yards per route run and yards allowed per cover snap, along with receiver and cornerback’s height, weight and 40-yard dash time from the NFL combine. DraftScout.com provides Pro Day numbers.
- Snap Percentage: Each receiver’s respective percentage of snaps spent as the offense’s left, slot or right wide receiver, along with each cornerback’s respective percentage of snaps spent covering the offense’s left, slot or right wide receiver.
- Physical: Each player’s respective height (inches), weight (pounds) and 40-yard dash (seconds). The players with the biggest advantages are denoted in green, while those facing a mismatch are in red.
- Combined Yards Per Route Run: The sum of each receiver’s yards per route run in the slot or overall with their opposing defender’s yards allowed per cover snap rate. A higher number (green) is better for the receiver, and a lower number (red) is better for the defender.
First we’ll look at Bears receivers against the Lions secondary.
- Robinson’s 133 yards and two touchdowns against the Lions in Week 10 came with first-team All-Pro cornerback Slay sidelined. A-Rob’s 39 scoreless-yards last Sunday night in Xavier Rhode’s shadow coverage could be a better indicator of what to expect this time.
- The Bears do a good job of consistently moving A-Rob and the rest of the receivers around the formation, but Slay is one of the league’s few shadow cornerbacks who will chase the opponent’s No. 1 receiver inside.
- A more covered Robinson would be good news for both Gabriel and Miller. Rookie undrafted free agent Mike Ford has played a total of 39 career snaps after taking over for DeShawn Shead last week, so consistent liability Nevin Lawson will move into the slot to face off with Miller.
- Gabriel boasts the best overall advantage in terms of combined yards per route run and yards allowed per cover snap. He also holds the group’s largest speed advantage.
- Burton caught 4-of-4 targets for 40 scoreless-yards against the Lions in Week 9. The absence of Adam Shaheen (concussion) could open up more red-zone targets for the Bears’ featured tight end
Next we’ll look at Lions receivers against the Bears secondary.
- Marvin Jones is out with a knee injury, while Kenny Golladay doesn’t have the easiest matchup, though Golladay does possess enough natural ability and size to win. He’s gained more than 100 yards or scored a touchdown in seven of his eight career games with more than five targets.
- Bruce Ellington (back, questionable) emerged as the Lions’ featured slot receiver last week, out-snapping Theo Riddick 21 to 3 from the inside.
- Only Golladay (14 targets) had more targets than Ellington (9) with Jones sidelined. Riddick (7) was also plenty involved.
- The Lions hardly ever utilize their tight end, and Willson is expected to split snaps with Levine Toilolo and potentially Michael Roberts (shoulder questionable).
- The Bears’ league-best defense in overall DVOA ranks No. 4 in DVOA against opposing No. 1 wide receivers. Each of their top-three cornerbacks rank among PFF’s top 20 corners this season.
Next we’ll look at Redskins receivers against the Cowboys secondary.
- The Cowboys haven’t asked stud cornerback Byron Jones to travel with opposing No. 1 receivers all season.
- Chidobe Awuzie has made strides in recent weeks, but is still a matchup the Redskins would rather take their chances on with both Josh Doctson and Maurice Harris.
- Jordan Reed and Trey Quinn in particular are positioned for success from the inside. Only Doctson (5) and Reed (3) had more targets than Quinn (2) after McCoy entered the game last week.
- Reed has averaged 5.4 receptions for 53 yards in seven career games when McCoy has thrown double-digit passes.
Next we’ll look at Cowboys receivers against the Redskins secondary.
- Josh Norman has shadowed Odell Beckham Jr. (8-136-0), Julio Jones (7-121-1), Mike Evans (3-51-0) and DeAndre Hopkins (5-56-1) in recent weeks with No. 2 cornerback Quinton Dunbar (leg) sidelined.
- Cooper is positioned to be next, but the Redskins’ zone-heavy defense makes Norman’s shadow coverage a bit less of an issue than some of the league’s other No. 1 cornerbacks. Cooper thus still boasts the best overall advantage among the Cowboys’ receivers.
- Cooper is also positioned to attack Norman deep considering their fairly large differential in long speed.
- Gallup could have problems against Dunbar if the Redskins’ long and athletic No. 2 cornerback is ultimately able so suit up.
- Beasley is positioned for success in the slot against a defense he’s caught at least five passes against in four of their past six matchups.
- The Cowboys are expected to utilize an unappetizing committee at tight end between Blake Jarwin, Dalton Shultz and Rico Gathers with starter Geoff Swaim (wrist surgery, out) sidelined.
Next we’ll look at Falcons receivers against the Saints secondary.
- The Saint shadowed Jones with Lattimore during the first half of their Week 3 matchup, but they comically moved their No. 1 corner onto Calvin Ridley during the midst of the rookie’s three-touchdown explosion.
- Lattimore traveled in last week’s matchup against Alshon Jeffery and the Eagles after not doing so during the team’s first three games since acquiring Eli Apple, so it seems likely he’ll at least start out on Jones Sunday night.
- Jones has 100-plus yards and a touchdown in three consecutive games since his touchdown drought from hell. He’s posted 5-98-0, 7-149-0 and 5-96-0 receiving lines in three career matchups with Lattimore.
- Ridley is plenty capable of winning his matchup with Apple, as is Sanu with Williams, while Austin Hooper holds a massive size advantage over the Saints’ safeties. Ryan and Co. scored five touchdowns through the air during their loss to the Saints back in Week 3.
- It’d behoove the Falcons to target slot cornerback P.J. Williams, who is PFF’s 108th-ranked corner among 111 qualified players.
Next we’ll look at Saints receivers against the Falcons secondary.
- Robert Alford (foot) and Tre’Quan Smith (foot) should each be considered questionable for Thursday night.
- The absence of Smith wouldn’t necessarily lead to a lofty increase in targets for Carr or recently-acquired Brandon Marshall. The more likely scenario could be a return to Weeks 1-4 target distribution for Kamara and Thomas, along with a continued emphasis on the ground game.
- Watson is capable of winning in the middle of the field against the Falcons’ injury-riddled safety group, but Josh Hill is playing more snaps while Marshall could wind up being used as a red-zone tight end type of player.
- Nobody can guard Michael Thomas, especially not a Falcons secondary he’s consistently destroyed since entering the league.
Michael Thomas in 5 career games vs. the Falcons …
7-71-1
10-156-1
10-117-1
4-66-0
10-129-0… #shhhhh
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 20, 2018
Other Matchup Notes
The following chart is comprised of the six categories that make up my league-wide weekly matchup manifesto. You can learn more here.
- The Bears are the slate’s second-best positioned team overall with or without Trubisky under center thanks to their ability to create explosive plays and high pressure rate.
- The Lions, Redskins and Cowboys offenses are largely playing a different breed of football than the Falcons and Saints.
- The Redskins ability to take care of the football is compromised with Smith sidelined.
- Elliott has the day’s second-best matchup behind Kamara and Ingram.
- The Falcons pass offense is set up as good if not better than the Saints’ similarly-explosive passing game.
- The Falcons-Saints matchup will more closely resemble a track meet compared to Bears-Lions and Redskins-Cowboys.
