Travis Kelce Prop Pick: Biggest Super Bowl Edge

Travis Kelce Prop Pick

*Super Bowl prop odds as of Saturday morning

After a sub-par regular season by his standards, Travis Kelce has rebounded for a big postseason thus far, reeling in 23 catches for 262 yards and three touchdowns, which leads the Kansas City Chiefs in all three statistical categories.

Kelce player prop picks will clearly be popular among Super Bowl bettors on Sunday evening, but is there enough Taylor Swift fatigue present to motivate some to fade a big performance by loading up on unders?

There’s probably a psychology of sports betting conversation here for another day, but for our purposes all truly matters heading into Super Bowl 58 is value, and value alone.

With this in mind, I turned to the Action Network’s Super Bowl props tool to research the smartest Kelce prop pick and was surprised with what I found.

Let’s take a look.

Travis Kelce Prop Pick

The consensus price across the market is over/under 6.5 receptions, though the vig is what makes this bet so interesting.

Let me explain.

To start, our Super Bowl props tool projects Kelce at 6.6 receptions, so the value is on the over, right?

Not so fast, my friend.

Because there is significant plus-money on the under, value is found by backing Kelce to fall short of seven receptions.

Specifically, the difference in our projection of 6.6 receptions and under 6.5, but a vig of +124, results in a 6.4% edge.

Pick: Kelce Under 6.5 Receptions (+124)

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