It’s no surprise that when two contenders meet, the result has major playoff implications. So when the Packers went into AT&T Stadium and beat the Cowboys, 34-24, Green Bay’s postseason odds rose while Dallas’ fell.
According to our Bet Labs model — which simulates the rest of the season 10,000 times — the Packers went from having the seventh-best chances (59.73%) to make the playoffs heading into Week 5 to the fourth-best (74.19%). The Cowboys, on the other hand, fell from the sixth-best (60.65%) all the way to 13th (43.57%). Their chances to win the Super Bowl also fell from 4.03% to 1.97%.
And there was a lot more movement across the league.
We’ll dig into every team’s odds to make the playoffs — as well as their chances of winning their division and the Super Bowl — below, but first, here are a few key takeaways:
- As the Cowboys’ outlook dims, the Eagles’ brightens a bit. Philly now has the best odds to win the NFC East (59.80%) thanks to its 31-6 rout of Washington.
- The Saints were another contender to see their postseason odds rise (from 67.87% to 77.55%) after Teddy Bridgewater led them to a third straight win since losing Drew Brees.
- The Ravens leapfrogged the Browns for the best odds to win the AFC North (51.16%) after edging out the Steelers in overtime. Cleveland has yet to play this week, but is a 5-point road underdog for Monday Night Football.
Now let’s dig into the 1-32 playoff rankings.
Note: These simulation results do not include Monday Night Football.
2019 NFL Playoff Rankings
1. Arizona Cardinals
- Chance to make playoffs: 1.14%
- Chance to win division: 0.29%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.01%
2. Atlanta Falcons
- Chance to make playoffs: 4.23%
- Chance to win division: 2.71%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.10%
3. Baltimore Ravens
- Chance to make playoffs: 68.08%
- Chance to win division: 51.16%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 2.37%
4. Buffalo Bills
- Chance to make playoffs: 68.98%
- Chance to win division: 2.43%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.50%
5. Carolina Panthers
- Chance to make playoffs: 38.04%
- Chance to win division: 23.25%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 1.98%
6. Chicago Bears
- Chance to make playoffs: 38.54%
- Chance to win division: 17.80%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 2.43%
7. Cincinnati Bengals
- Chance to make playoffs: 1.25%
- Chance to win division: 0.80%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.01%
8. Cleveland Browns
- Chance to make playoffs: 58.07%
- Chance to win division: 41.86%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 1.28%
9. Dallas Cowboys
- Chance to make playoffs: 43.57%
- Chance to win division: 34.67%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 1.97%
10. Denver Broncos
- Chance to make playoffs: 4.02%
- Chance to win division: 0.57%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.04%
11. Detroit Lions
- Chance to make playoffs: 21.91%
- Chance to win division: 10.46%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.40%
12. Green Bay Packers
- Chance to make playoffs: 74.19%
- Chance to win division: 58.06%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 6.61%
13. Houston Texans
- Chance to make playoffs: 70.72%
- Chance to win division: 58.68%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 2.66%
14. Indianapolis Colts
- Chance to make playoffs: 32.67%
- Chance to win division: 23.49%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.51%
15. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Chance to make playoffs: 15.62%
- Chance to win division: 7.86%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.05%
16. Kansas City Chiefs
- Chance to make playoffs: 97.61%
- Chance to win division: 91.71%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 11.93%
17. Los Angeles Rams
- Chance to make playoffs: 58.78%
- Chance to win division: 29.40%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 5.60%
18. Los Angeles Chargers
- Chance to make playoffs: 31.89%
- Chance to win division: 5.98%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.73%
19. Miami Dolphins
- Chance to make playoffs: 0.01%
- Chance to win division: 0.00%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.01%
20. Minnesota Vikings
- Chance to make playoffs: 34.92%
- Chance to win division: 13.68%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 1.59%
21. New England Patriots
- Chance to make playoffs: 99.82%
- Chance to win division: 97.57%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 35.07%
22. New Orleans Saints
- Chance to make playoffs: 77.55%
- Chance to win division: 67.81%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 8.48%
23. New York Giants
- Chance to make playoffs: 8.47%
- Chance to win division: 5.46%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.12%
24. New York Jets
- Chance to make playoffs: 1.26%
- Chance to win division: 0.00%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.03%
25. Oakland Raiders
- Chance to make playoffs: 17.60%
- Chance to win division: 1.74%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.07%
26. Philadelphia Eagles
- Chance to make playoffs: 67.96%
- Chance to win division: 59.80%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 6.35%
27. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Chance to make playoffs: 13.10%
- Chance to win division: 6.18%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.09%
28. San Francisco 49ers
- Chance to make playoffs: 62.60%
- Chance to win division: 37.77%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 5.18%
29. Seattle Seahawks
- Chance to make playoffs: 56.19%
- Chance to win division: 32.54%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 3.69%
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Chance to make playoffs: 11.82%
- Chance to win division: 6.23%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.22%
31. Tennessee Titans
- Chance to make playoffs: 19.30%
- Chance to win division: 9.97%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.23%
32. Washington Redskins
- Chance to make playoffs: 0.09%
- Chance to win division: 0.07%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.01%