Our end-of-season Action Network Luck Rankings gave us 2023’s luckiest and unluckiest teams.
We can also use those rankings to identify which teams may have easier or more difficult strengths of schedule in 2024 than the market implies. That’s because when market values are set, a sizeable chunk of that correlates to 2023 performance and is typically adjusted for personnel movement, injuries, coaching changes and other factors.
The 2023 performance part is the part we’re focusing on.
We’ve already seen that over the years unlucky teams are undervalued and lucky teams are overvalued by the market when betting NFL spreads. We also know that NFL teams that outperform their Pythagorean Expectation by more than a couple of wins tend to decline the following year, and vice versa for underperforming teams.
By looking at each NFL team’s 2024 schedule, we can look at their opponents 2023 Luck% to see if they’ll face teams that were lucky or unlucky the previous year.
A team facing a schedule whose opponents were very lucky in 2023 may actually have an easier schedule than anticipated, as these teams on average should regress in the luck department. The opposite is true for teams facing opponents who were quite unlucky last year.
With that said, let’s take a look at each team’s NFL schedule luck for 2024.
2024 NFL Schedule Luck
| RANK | TEAM | Luck % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
4.5%
|
|
| 2 |
2.86%
|
|
| 3 |
2%
|
|
| 4 |
1.9%
|
|
| 5 |
1.67%
|
|
| 6 |
1.6%
|
|
| 7 |
1.38%
|
|
| 8 |
1.32%
|
|
| 9 |
0.67%
|
|
| 10 |
0.25%
|
|
| 11 |
0.18%
|
|
| 12 |
0.15%
|
|
| 13 |
-0.04%
|
|
| 14 |
-0.09%
|
|
| 15 |
-0.2%
|
|
| 16 |
-0.23%
|
|
| 17 |
-0.25%
|
|
| 18 |
-0.39%
|
|
| 19 |
-0.57%
|
|
| 20 |
-0.61%
|
|
| 21 |
-0.63%
|
|
| 22 |
-0.65%
|
|
| 23 |
-0.67%
|
|
| 24 |
-0.74%
|
|
| 25 |
-1.11%
|
|
| 26 |
-1.14%
|
|
| 27 |
-1.33%
|
|
| 28 |
-1.43%
|
|
| 29 |
-1.6%
|
|
| 30 |
-2.29%
|
|
| 31 |
-3.25%
|
|
| 32 |
-3.7%
|
Luckiest Schedules
1. Baltimore Ravens
When schedules were released in May, Action Network Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner found the Ravens faced the sixth-most difficult schedule in 2024. However, it may not be as difficult as it seems thanks to the luck factor.
Baltimore plays eight games against last year’s six luckiest teams, including four games against the three luckiest teams. Add in a game against the Denver Broncos, and that makes nine games — more than half their schedule — against teams in the top 10 of the Action Network’s 2023 end-of-season Luck Rankings.
On the flip side, the Ravens only play two games against the 10-most unlucky teams from 2023 — the Los Angeles Chargers, who ranked 29th in luck, and the Buffalo Bills, 25th.
Overall, the Ravens face teams who averaged a Luck% of 4.5% last year, meaning their average game in 2024 is against a team that would have placed inside the top 10 in last year’s Luck Rankings. There should be plenty of regression for their opponents in 2024.
2. Dallas Cowboys
Dallas gets four games against division rivals with the Philadelphia Eagles (No. 2) and New York Giants (No. 6) both placing in the top six of last year’s Luck Rankings. By virtue of winning the NFC East last year, they also get games against fellow division winners Tampa Bay (No. 3) and Detroit (No. 8).
The NFC East also crosses over with the AFC North, which brings games against the Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 1) and Cincinnati Bengals (No. 5), as well as crossover opponent Houston (No. 7). That means the Cowboys play nine games against the eight most lucky teams from last year.
The schedule is somewhat offset by the NFC South’s other three teams. New Orleans (No. 32), Carolina (No. 31) and Atlanta (No. 28) all ended up in the bottom five of the 2023 Luck Rankings.
Overall, Dallas’ average opponent had a Luck% of 2.9% in 2023.
3. Cleveland Browns
The Browns get a similar level of luck thanks to being in the same division as the Ravens. That means four games against the Steelers and Bengals. In facing the NFC East, they add two more games against teams in the top six of the 2023 Luck Rankings.
Overall, Cleveland’s 2024 opponents had a Luck% of 2.0% in 2023, which is less than half of the average opponent the Ravens face this year.
Unluckiest Schedules
30. Seattle Seahawks
The NFC West faces the NFC North this year, so Seattle gets games against Chicago (No. 30) and Minnesota (No. 27). Add in a pair of games against divison opponents San Francisco (No. 26), as well as games against Atlanta, Buffalo (No. 25) and Miami (No. 23), and Seattle suddenly has seven games against the bottom-10 teams in 2023 luck.
On the flip side, the Seahawks play just two teams among the 10 luckiest from last year, including zero in the top five.
That gives them the third-luckiest schedule in 2024 with a Luck% average of -2.3%.
31. Arizona Cardinals
We shouldn’t be surprised to see another NFC West team here. The Cardinals have eight games against last year’s bottom 10 to just three against last year’s top 10 in luck.
Like the Seahawks, Arizona faces no teams inside the top five in the 2023 Luck Rankings. In fact, the luckiest team Arizona will face is the Lions, who were just eighth in luck last year.
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last year’s third-luckiest team gets the unluckiest schedule of 2024. Don’t confuse that with a difficult schedule, because the Buccaneers do have the second-easiest schedule according to the betting markets. It’s just that their schedule may be tougher than it seems if the market isn’t factoring in luck as much as it should.
Tampa Bay, of course, plays in the NFC South. The Falcons, Panthers, and Saints all ended up in the bottom five of last year’s Luck Rankings.
Overall, 12 of Tampa Bay’s 17 games are against bottom-half luck teams.
The Bucs’ average opponent in 2024 has a 2023 Luck% of -3.7%, which would be 20th or lower in every year of our Luck Rankings database. That means their opponents are likely due for some positive regression in 2024.
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