Action Network’s NFL Luck Rankings help us identify which teams have been lucky or unlucky in the win-loss column by comparing each team’s W/L record to their on-field performance.
We measure on-field performance by creating an Expected Score for each game, based on how each team performed in the situations they faced in their games. From there, we can derive an expected win probability based on the Expected Score and compare that to the team’s record. The difference is what we call Luck%.
We can then rank all 32 NFL teams by Luck% from 1-32 to get our Luck Rankings.
2023 NFL Luck Rankings Final Standings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
| RANK | TEAM | Luck % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
17.88%
|
|
| 2 |
13.05%
|
|
| 3 |
12.95%
|
|
| 4 |
11.84%
|
|
| 5 |
10.15%
|
|
| 6 |
8.87%
|
|
| 7 |
7.72%
|
|
| 8 |
7.64%
|
|
| 9 |
7.14%
|
|
| 10 |
3.92%
|
|
| 11 |
1.32%
|
|
| 12 |
0.21%
|
|
| 13 |
0.21%
|
|
| 14 |
-0.83%
|
|
| 15 |
-1.29%
|
|
| 16 |
-1.83%
|
|
| 17 |
-2.22%
|
|
| 18 |
-2.45%
|
|
| 19 |
-2.68%
|
|
| 20 |
-2.77%
|
|
| 21 |
-3.34%
|
|
| 22 |
-4.49%
|
|
| 23 |
-4.98%
|
|
| 24 |
-5.16%
|
|
| 25 |
-5.97%
|
|
| 26 |
-5.98%
|
|
| 27 |
-6.59%
|
|
| 28 |
-7.28%
|
|
| 29 |
-8.94%
|
|
| 30 |
-10.8%
|
|
| 31 |
-13.38%
|
|
| 32 |
-13.53%
|
Luckiest Teams
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh had a very fortunate 2023 season, ending with a 10-7 record before being bounced in the Wild Card Round by a 31-17 score against Buffalo.
The Steelers luck largely centered around unsustainable ways of scoring. The Steelers had the highest percentage of touchdowns of 60-plus yards despite only ranking near the middle of the league in explosive play rate.
Based on Expected Scores, the Steelers played more like a 7-10 team instead of a 10-7 team, coming in 3.04 wins above expectation. Their 9-2 record in one-score games is a big reason why. Had they gone 6-5 in those games, the 2023 season would look a lot different for Pittsburgh.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
Staying in the state of Pennsylvania, the Eagles came in as the second-most lucky team of 2023. The Eagles fired off hot, starting 10-1. However, at that point in the season, they had only played like a 7-4 team based on Expected Scores.
Sure enough, regression found them, and they finished the regular season on a 1-5 downswing and got trounced 32-9 in the Wild Card Round.
Like the Steelers, the Eagles overperformed in one-score games, going 8-3. That’s reflected in their overall point differential, where they ended the season just +5 in the scoring department. Typically that’s more reflective of a 9-8 team rather than an 11-6 team, putting the Eagles around 2.2 wins over expectation.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The team that beat the Eagles in the Wild Card Round was the regular season’s third-most lucky team, Tampa Bay.
The Buccaneers were in the top third of the league in multiple luck-based categories including injury luck, opposing kicking luck, and turnover luck. Quarterback Baker Mayfield had the biggest gap among all NFL QBs in turnover-worthy plays compared to actual turnovers, and had just 12 interceptions including the playoffs compared to 17.7 expected based on his bad-ball rate.
Unluckiest Teams
30. Chicago Bears
Chicago’s 7-10 record makes sense when we consider they were -19 in point differential, however, their point differential based on Expected Scores was +7.3 which would make them closer to a 9-8 team.
The Bears were certainly unlucky in that 16.7% of their turnovers were returned for touchdowns, compared to a 9% NFL average. Turnover touchdown rate isn’t a sticky metric, so we’d expect long term that the Bears would have given up closer to two defensive TDs instead of four.
The Bears were also unlucky in that they gave up the highest percentage of touchdowns on third and fourth down. Defensively, they did a great job of getting teams into late-down situations but weren’t able to close the door. That’s another metric that also tends to regress, given that early-down defensive success correlates strongly with late-down defensive success.
Ultimately, the turnover scoring allowed and late-down defense is why the Bears gave up 379 points compared to 345.1 by Expected Score.
31. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers ended up 2-15 but they were expected to have closer to 4.5 wins. They went 2-6 in one-score games and suffered from opposing kickers making 96.2% of field goals compared to an 85.9% league average.
Like Chicago, Carolina was also extremely unlucky with 25% of their offensive turnovers resulting in opposing touchdowns. The Panthers had fewer offensive turnovers than the Bears, yet gave up one more touchdown on those turnovers than the Bears did.
The Panthers weren’t good, but they were better than their 2-15 record.
32. New Orleans Saints
The Saints ended with a 9-8 record but played more like an 11.3-win team by Expected Score where they had a +81.5 expected point differential.
Even just looking at the actual point differential, the Saints ended up with a +75 point differential. By comparison, the Kansas City Chiefs were +77 and went 11-6, while the Detroit Lions had a +66 point differential and went 12-5.
The Saints started 5-7 but had played like a 60% winning percentage team at that point in the season. Sure enough, they finished 4-1, winning each of their four games by multiple scores, and by an average of 20.25 points. Their only loss in that stretch was a one-score loss to the playoff-bound Los Angeles Rams.
The Saints’ Luck% improved from -18.9% after Week 13 to -13.5% by the end of the season, but that still pits them as the unluckiest team of the 2023 NFL season.
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Using Luck Rankings to Bet Sides and Totals
We can use luck to our advantage to bet NFL sides and totals.
For sides, we look for one of three criteria:
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly Luck Rankings
- A Luck% difference of at least 50% between two opposing teams
- A Luck% difference of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later
If one of these criteria is met, we back the unlucky team to cover the spread.
In 2023, unlucky teams went 14-9-2 (60%) against the closing spread. The 25 luck-based sides in 2023 were the fewest in a season in the last six years, with the other five seasons having anywhere from 28 to 35 games to bet.
Over those six years, unlucky teams are 113-61-5 (64.5%) ATS when one of these three criteria is met before the final week of the regular season, where teams often rest players.
For totals, we use something called the Luck Total as our guide on betting overs or unders. The Luck Total is also calculated by comparing Expected Scores to actual scores. If two teams playing combine to have much higher Expected Scores than their actual game scores, we’d expect regression to higher-scoring games, and vice versa.
For totals, we use the following criteria:
- A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
For the first two criteria, we’d bet the over, and third criteria we’d bet the under.
In 2023, Luck Totals went 35-19-1 (64.5%), which breaks down into 29-18-1 (61.5%) for unders and 6-1-0 (85.7%) for overs.
Overall, games meeting one of the first two criteria are 42-23-1 to the over (64.4%) against the closing total in games before the final week of the regular season over the past six years. Games meeting the third criterion are 119-80-3 (59.7%) to the under in games before the final week of the regular season.
In all, Luck Totals are 161-103-4 (60.8%) over the last six years.
We’ve also found luck-based sides and totals to be relevant in the playoffs as well, hitting at similar rates as regular season games that take place before the season’s final week.
Luck Rankings for 2024
As always, the Luck Rankings will be back for 2024.
If you’re following along, plan to hit the ground running. That’s because Weeks 2 and 3 make up nearly two-thirds of all the luck-based sides that meet the criteria in the regular season. Thankfully, after Week 3 it’s made up for with Luck Totals with unders kicking in at Week 3 and overs by Week 4.
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