AFC South Betting Odds, Preview: Will Texans Repeat as Division Champions?

AFC South Divisional Odds

• Houston Texans: 2-1
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 2-1
• Tennessee Titans: +325
• Indianapolis Colts: 4-1

Andrew Luck’s surprise decision to retire from the NFL has left the AFC South wide open. Before Luck’s news, the Colts (-140) were the odds-on favorites to win the division for the first time since 2014.

With Jacoby Brissett expected to start, Indianapolis’ odds to win the division have dropped to 4-1. The team’s implied probability of winning the AFC South has decreased from 58.3% to 20.0%.

Houston, the reigning division champion, is tied at 2-1 with Jacksonville, which replaced much-maligned quarterback Blake Bortles with Nick Foles.

Tennessee went from having the worst odds to win the division before the Luck retirement (6-1) to +325.

According to The Action Network model, the Texans have a 44.4% chance to win the division. The Colts are the next most likely champions with a  27.4% chance even without Luck. The Jaguars (15.4%) and Titans (12.8%) are longshots.

AFC South Best Bet

The Texans’ implied probability of winning the division is 33.3% based on 2-1 odds. With a young quarterback in Deshaun Watson, elite receiver DeAndre Hopkins and a star-studded defense that features J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney, Houston has a 44.4% chance to win the division.

Houston has the star power to win the AFC South. With no Luck to stand in their way, the Texans look like they end up on top of the division for a fourth time in five years.