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World Cup: Can England Solve Sweden’s Stalwart Defense?

England vs. Sweden, 10 a.m. ET, Fox

  • England -112
  • Sweden +390
  • Draw +225

Bet to Watch:

England To Win By 1 Goal +246 

After England won only their second of eight major tournament penalty shootouts, and first at a World Cup, the English media are starting to believe that anything is possible. “Football’s coming home” as far as fans of the Three Lions  are concerned, but if their team is to lift the trophy for the first time in more than 50 years, there are a few roadblocks still to overcome.

Sweden are, without question, a favorable quarterfinal opponent, but that’s not to say Saturday’s match in Samara will be plain sailing for Gareth Southgate’s men. It never is as far as England are concerned, nor is it when they come to blows with this weekend’s challengers.

England have, after all, won just one of their last eight competitive meetings with the Swedes, who have developed a liking for what has become a familiar underdog status under coach Janne Andersson. Indeed, since exiting Euro 2016 and waving goodbye to their greatest-ever player in Zlatan Ibrahimovic, there has been a realization that without a star name to call upon, the players have needed to accept their limitations and, in a roundabout way, turn that into a strength.

The Scandinavians have shown this summer and well beforehand just how difficult they are to break down, simply by sticking to their rigid positions when out of possession and sitting deep. In the past 18 months, they’ve beaten Portugal, France and Italy, so they aren’t to be underestimated, keeping five clean sheets in their last six matches.

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It’s relatively clear how the pattern of this match will play out, with Sweden having had a lower possession share (36%) at this World Cup than any of the remaining teams. Plus, they’re well-aware that England are struggling to create meaningful chances from open play.

England have the tournament’s top scorer in their ranks, and Harry Kane will know that if he can add to his six-goal tally, he may well wrap up the Golden Boot. While there are those who will point to his duties as the penalty-kick taker as the main reason for his success this summer, he’s taken the chances that have come his way. Plus, his performance against Colombia was arguably the Tottenham star’s best all-around display of the tournament.

Sweden may have conceded only twice, but they have allowed their opponents the most shots on goal (61) of the quarterfinalists, and Kane doesn’t need a second invitation to shoot or indeed score. With odds over evens on the striker to do so at any time, that’s a bet that’s well worth considering, but I like the winning margin odds for England in this one.

It’s never straightforward when they are involved, after all, and Southgate’s charges are the only side remaining that are yet to keep a clean sheet. While their quality should win out, you can bank on a tight result, so England to win by exactly one goal would be my tip.

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Pelicans vs. Nuggets Odds, Pick, Prediction | NBA Betting Preview (March 30)

pelicans vs. nuggets-odds-pick-prediction-preview-nba-march 30-2023

Pelicans vs. Nuggets Odds

Pelicans Odds +7.5
Nuggets Odds -7.5
Over/Under 231.5
Time 10 p.m. ET
TV TNT
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The New Orleans Pelicans will finish off a four-game road trip Thursday night with a stop in Denver to face the Nuggets.

The first three games of the road trip went well for the Pelicans as they posted a 2-1 record. New Orleans was close to making it a perfect 3-0, but a second-half collapse against Golden State on Tuesday spoiled those chances.

Denver has also played great basketball as of late and has won four consecutive games. That win streak was much needed as Denver holds just a three-game lead in the Western Conference after being up six games just a few weeks ago.

Denver is firmly in playoff position as the No. 1 seed in the West, but New Orleans is the No. 8 seed, so every matchup matters for the Pelicans down the stretch.
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New Orleans Pelicans

The New Orleans Pelicans have picked up some momentum during this road trip, but that momentum actually began to build on March 19th against the Rockets.

That win against Houston marked the first game of New Orleans’ five game win-streak, a streak that came to an end Tuesday against the Warriors. New Orleans is 5-1 in its past six games and is tied with Denver for the second-best record in that span.

The key to New Orleans’ success in that six-game window was a resurgence on the defensive end of the floor. The Pelicans have posted a 102.0 Defensive Rating in the past six games, the best rating in the NBA by more than 6.0 points.

That stellar defensive play has been complimented with a 120.0 Offensive Rating, a direct result of New Orleans shooting a league-leading 44.4% from 3 in the past six games.

The Pelicans are one of the hotter teams in the NBA and it couldn’t come at a better time as New Orleans fights for a chance to make the postseason.
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Denver Nuggets

The beginning of March was rather gloomy for the Nuggets. During a 10-day stretch from March 8th to 18th, Denver went just 1-5 and lost to some bad teams, such as the Spurs and Bulls.

However, the Nuggets have turned things around since, winning four straight games in an impressive stretch of basketball.

The biggest issue during the Nuggets skid was the defensive end of the floor. In fact, Denver’s opponents shot 50.8% from the field over those six games.

The only real concern for Denver is the injury report. MVP candidate Nikola Jokic is listed as questionable with a calf injury. His status is something that should be monitored up until tip-off.
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Pelicans-Nuggets Pick

Both of these teams have been rather dominant over the past week or so, but I like New Orleans to cover the spread here as an underdog.

It should be noted that the Pelicans have had a cake walk of a schedule in the past six games, three of which came against the three-worst teams in the Western Conference. However, I don’t think that should take away from the fact that the Pelicans posted a +108 point differential in that stretch.

Additionally, New Orleans has held its ground against Denver this season, despite being 1-2 in the season series. The Pelicans won the first matchup by 15 points and lost the following two games by a combined 10 points.

This is the first game of a back-to-back for Denver, with the second game coming against the Suns. It’s possible we see Jokic sit this one out, but even if he suits up, I like New Orleans on the spread. I would play this down to 5.5.

Pick: Pelicans +7.5 | Play to +5.5

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Phillies vs Rangers Odds, Picks, Predictions | MLB Betting Preview

phillies-vs-rangers-mlb-odds-picks-predictions-march-30-2023

Phillies vs. Rangers Odds

Thursday, March 30
4:05 p.m. ET
MLB.TV
Phillies Odds
Moneyline Total Run Line
+116
6.5
-110 / -110
+1.5
-200
Rangers Odds
Moneyline Total Run Line
-134
6.5
-110 / -110
-1.5
+164
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Major League Baseball makes its long-anticipated return on Thursday with a medley of new rules. MLB will look somewhat different  in 2023 than it did in November 2022, when the Phillies came within two games of winning the World Series. The National League champions begin their campaign on the road against the Rangers and a very familiar starting pitcher. Jacob deGrom is healthy and ready to make his Texas’ debut against Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola.

deGrom headlines a revamped Rangers rotation as Texas looks to make a playoff push in an improving AL West. He’ll lead off the game with a battle against Trea Turner, who was the Phillies marquee offseason addition. Kyle Schwarber and Andrew McCutchen led off their Phillies careers with homers in their first at-bats in 2021 and 2019. Turner will try to do the same, but it’s Texas that has the advantage because of deGrom’s often unhittable stuff.
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Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies might look quite a bit different by midseason once Ranger Suarez, Andrew Painter and most importantly, Bryce Harper, return from injury. Harper had Tommy John surgery to repair a torn UCL and the lack of depth in the organization is really being tested after the Rhys Hoskins injury. He’ll miss the entire season due to an ACL tear in his left knee. That pushes Darick Hall to first base and likely shifts Jake Cave into the starting lineup.

The once vaunted Phillies lineup doesn’t look nearly as deep now as it did on paper in the offseason.

Projected Phillies Lineup

SS Trea Turner
OF Kyle Schwarber
C J.T. Realmuto
1B Darick Hall
OF Nick Castellanos
3B Alec Bohm
2B Bryson Stott
CF Jake Marsh
DH Jake Cave

There are also some defensive questions about this group, especially on the corners where Hall, Bohm and Castellanos don’t project as average defenders. The Phillies should be better up the middle, but this isn’t a plus defensive team.

Despite the lineup concerns, Nola is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He ranked fourth in 2022 in K-BB% amongst qualified starters and no one had a better Location+ rating, per Eno Sarris’ model from The Athletic. Nola is a true command artist — he never gives free passes and still generates plenty of swings and misses. His projected ERA sits around three, but that’s considerably lower than deGrom.

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Texas Rangers

Texas spent a lot of money in the offseason adding Nathan Eovaldi and deGrom to improve the rotation, but didn’t really address its lineup depth. The Rangers will be hoping to get more production from youngster Josh Jung, who underperformed expectations considerably in a brief MLB cameo last season. Robbie Grossman and his 99 projected wRC+, which is slightly below league average, was a nice free-agent addition.

Rangers Projected Lineup

2B Marcus Semien
SS Corey Seager
1B Nathaniel Lowe
OF Adolis Garcia
OF Robbie Grossman
3B Josh Jung
DH Mitch Garver
C Jonah Heim
OF Bubba Thompson

Most of the production will come from the top four spots — especially after Lowe had a breakout campaign in 2022. Garcia has a ton of pop, Lowe and Seager are excellent hitters, and Semien is as durable as anyone in baseball. Thompson is expected to start on Opening Day and he’ll contribute elite speed and an ability to steal bases.

The Rangers are below average when three-fifths of their rotation is on the mound, but deGrom is dominant enough to keep them in any game and makes them a rightful favorite in this one. deGrom pitched to a 2.24 xERA in 2022 and struck out a ridiculous 42.7% of hitters last season.

His ERA projection is up there with the top relievers in baseball, and he can do it for multiple times through the order.
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Phillies vs. Rangers Betting Pick

There is some uncertainty with how much we’ll see from deGrom on Thursday. He didn’t throw more than 60 pitches in any Spring Training start, so he’ll probably be limited to no more than 75-80. He’s so efficient at times that it could get him through five or six innings if he keeps traffic off the bases.

Nola is an elite starter, but Texas is at home and has the better starter by more than a half run per nine innings. The Rangers have the better defense and have enough in their bullpen to hold off Philadelphia once deGrom exits. I’d play Texas at -140 or better.

Pick: Rangers Moneyline at -140 or Better

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North Texas vs UAB Odds, Picks | NIT Championship Betting Guide (Thursday, March 30)

north texas mean green vs uab blazers-odds-picks-nit-championship-betting-guide-thursday march 30

North Texas vs. UAB Odds

Thursday, March 30
9:30 p.m. ET
ESPN2
North Texas Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+2.5
-120
127.5
-110o / -110u
 +112
UAB Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-2.5
-110
127.5
-110o / -110u
 -134
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

Conference USA crowns the league’s second postseason champion of this season on Thursday night when UAB and North Texas meet in Las Vegas for the NIT title game.

The Mean Green won two of the three meetings between the two this season, but the Blazers secured the victory in the last matchup in the conference tournament.

Both programs are vying for their first NIT championship in their school’s history, boasting veteran rosters who have played in the NCAA tournament in recent years.

This should be a great battle of different styles in this game, and I’m excited to see this matchup for the fourth time.

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North Texas Mean Green

One big question surrounding North Texas will be whether coach Grant McCasland will still be with the program next season. Regardless of what happens, he has left the job in a much better state than when he joined.

This is the first 30-win season in school history, and McCasland now owns 11 postseason victories. Before he arrived, the Mean Green had never won a postseason game.

The calling card under McCasland has always been a strong defense, and this year is no different. North Texas ranks in the top 25 in AdjD (22nd), EFG% (6th) and 2-point (8th) and 3-point defense (16th).

McCasland’s strong defense was on full display in the semifinal win over Wisconsin, holding the Badgers scoreless for a stretch of over nine minutes in the second half. They also only made one of their final 16 shots.

UAB Blazers

Even with the disappointment of missing out on the Big Dance, this has still been a banner season for the Blazers. The 29 wins on the year are a program record, but coach Andy Kennedy has his sights set on a trophy.

This hasn’t been an easy ride for UAB in the NIT, knocking off Southern Miss, Morehead State, Vanderbilt and Utah Valley to clinch a spot in the title game. However, Kennedy has a well-rounded roster that was built for a run like this.

On the year, the Blazers rank in the top 50 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, according to Bart Torvik. Meanwhile, they are also stout defensively in EFG% (43rd) and opponents’ 2-point (48th) and 3-point shooting (59th).

The offense runs through former C-USA Player of the Year Jordan “Jelly” Walker, who is fifth in the country in scoring at 22.3 points per game. He has been very clutch from the free-throw line in postseason play, shooting 92% from the charity stripe to help close out victories.

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North Texas vs. UAB Betting Pick

When I look at the odds for this title game, I really think the spread is right where I would make it, and the two differences in style keep me away from the total.

With that said, I do see betting value in the player props market.

So, my best bet is to back Walker to fly over his points total of 18.5 points, which I would play to 19.5 points.

In the two matchups he played against North Texas this season, this same prop would have cashed in both, with Jelly scoring an average of 26 points per game in those contests.

There is also some off-court motivation for him here after he was very vocal about the Mean Green’s Tylor Perry being named the C-USA Player of the Year.

While he hasn’t shot the ball well over the last few games, we should get Walker’s best effort here, and he is still averaging 18 shots per game over his last 10.

I would also look to take UAB’s Trey Jemison to go over his rebounds prop of 7.5, with North Texas’ center and leading rebounder Abou Ousmane out for this game.

I may not have a bet in the primary markets, but I do like the value on the Blazers’ duo.

Pick: Jelly Walker Over 18.5 Points (-113) | Play to 19.5

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Brewers vs Cubs Odds, Picks, Predictions | MLB Betting Preview

brewers-vs-cubs-mlb-odds-picks-predictions-march-30-2023

Brewers vs. Cubs Odds

Thursday, March 30
2:20 p.m. ET
MLB.TV
Brewers Odds
Moneyline Total Run Line
-148
7.5
-102 / -120
-1.5
+114
Cubs Odds
Moneyline Total Run Line
+126
7.5
-102 / -120
+1.5
-137
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

MLB Opening Day is finally upon us! To kick things off in the Windy City, there is an NL Central Division series set to begin with the Chicago Cubs hosting the Milwaukee Brewers.

Milwaukee ended last season’s series between these two clubs in good form, winning three of the past four matchups.

Here’s a look at the odds, as well as my Brewers vs. Cubs betting pick.

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Milwaukee Brewers

Drawing his second consecutive Opening Day start, right-hander Corbin Burnes is slated to take the mound for Milwaukee. After taking home the NL Cy Young in 2021, Burnes followed up with another monster season in 2022.

In 33 starts, Burnes went 12-8 with a 2.94 ERA and 0.97 WHIP while amassing a whopping 243 strikeouts. The punch-out is Burnes’ most devastating attribute as a pitcher, which is the prop we are going to target on Opening Day.

At BetRivers, you can find Burnes Over 6.5 strikeouts at -152, a play where I believe the juice is worth the squeeze. Last season, he ranked in the 87th percentile (or higher) in K%, Whiff%, Chase Rate, Fastball Spin, and Curve Spin.

Additionally, Burnes enters this year with an extra chip on his shoulder. The big news surrounding the Brewers’ ace this off-season was their terrible contract negotiations, which shed a bad light on a notoriously cheap Milwaukee organization and is going to perhaps fuel a (rightfully) pissed off Burnes.

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Chicago Cubs

The offseason news surrounding Chicago was much more inspiring, in part because of its flurry of acquisitions. Boasting a completely revamped lineup, the Cubs brought in Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, Trey Mancini and Eric Hosmer.

However, outside of Hosmer, those guys are only going to further Chicago’s strikeout problem. In 2022, the Cubs ranked 22nd in the league in K% when facing right-handed pitching.

Last season, Swanson, Bellinger and Mancini all possessed a K% north of 23%. In fact, looking at the projected Opening Day lineup, seven of the nine hitters posted a K% north of that figure last season.

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Brewers vs. Cubs Betting Pick

Chicago’s woes in the strikeout department are likely to continue against the efficient Burnes. Across 111 career plate appearances against the right-hander, this current Cubs roster possesses a staggering 31.5 K% and 40.3 Whiff%.

That is absolutely dominating stuff, which is why Burnes is 2-1 with a 1.85 ERA and 60 strikeouts over his last six games against Chicago. He accumulated 10 or more strikeouts in five of those six outings, which is far greater than the number we are taking on Opening Day.

It makes sense why the total is set lower in this specific instance. It is the first day of the new season, and with 162 games, it is a marathon, not a sprint.

I do not expect Burnes to go out for more than five innings, but that is likely all it will take to get to seven strikeouts against a lineup that is projected to start seven guys who had a K% north of 23% last season.

Pick: Corbin Burnes Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-152) | Play up to (-160)

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NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Kings vs. Oilers (March 30)

NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Kings vs. Oilers (March 30)

Kings vs. Oilers Odds

Kings Odds +128
Oilers Odds -154
Over/Under 6.5 (-168/+136)
Time 9 p.m. ET
TV SNW
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

Separated by just one point in the Pacific Division standings, the Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers will square off in a potential playoff preview on Thursday night at Rogers Place.

The Kings are second in the division with 96 points and are continuing a four-game road trip after dropping a 2-1 decision to the Calgary Flames on Tuesday.

The Oilers boast 95 points, with one more game played. They’re back home after a successful road trip to Arizona and Vegas, but will be playing their third game in four nights.

Here’s a closer look at the latest on both teams, and your best bet for Thursday’s game.

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Los Angeles Kings

Tuesday’s loss in Calgary marked the end of a phenomenal hot streak as it was the Kings first regulation defeat since Feb. 26 — a 10-0-2 run. During that 12-game run, the Kings averaged 4.33 goals per game — second only to the Oilers (4.36) — and the power play was clicking 26.2% of the time.

Defensively, the Kings have also been playing well. Over their past 10 games, their expected goal share of 58.67% at 5-on-5 has been second-best in the league, trailing only Calgary. And despite taking the loss in Calgary, goaltender Joonas Korpisalo has been excellent since joining the Kings. He and Pheonix Copley have been alternating starts and, collectively, averaged 2.33 goals against per game during the hot streak.

If the pattern holds, Copley should start in Edmonton. He has an .899 save percentage, but is 23-4-3 this season.

As the Kings push for first place in the Pacific — and possibly in the Western Conference — they have one Achilles heel. Their penalty kill is just 75.3% for the season, and that didn’t change during their hot streak.

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Edmonton Oilers

Edmonton has one more point than L.A. since Feb. 27, but has also played two more games.

The Oilers are also 7-0-1 since their last regulation loss (Mar. 11 in Toronto). They’re also 11-3-1 in their past 15 games, have averaged a league-high 4.53 goals per game over that stretch and are executing a lethal 35.4% of the time on the power play. In their past four games, they’re even better — 8-for-13 (62%).

True to their roots, the Oilers are comfortable scoring their way out of any issues with goaltending — and there are issues. Stuart Skinner has been carrying the heavier workload and his numbers since Feb. 27 are decidedly Copley-like: an .896 save percentage, but a 9-2-1 record. Jack Campbell has given up 14 goals in his past three starts (4.58 GAA) and is 2-1-0 in that stretch.

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Kings vs. Oilers Pick

The Kings have won the previous meetings between these teams this season: 3-1 in Edmonton on Nov. 16 and 6-3 back in Los Angeles on Jan. 9.

Both teams are in equally tough spots and will be playing their fourth game in six nights. However, the Oilers may have slightly fresher legs, having cruised to wins in their past two games. The Kings tried to play catch-up against the Flames after falling into a first-period hole on Tuesday, and narrowly escaped with a 7-6 win over St. Louis in a wild affair last Sunday.

The Oilers’ power play is also operating at peak form right now, while the Kings’ penalty kill has struggled all season. Edmonton is one of the best teams in the league at drawing penalties and the Kings are one of the league’s more penalized teams.

A game this important in the standings will be taken seriously by both teams, so avoid the puck line as a blowout is unlikely.

Look for the Oilers to overtake the Kings in the Pacific Division with a regulation win.

Pick: Oilers in Regulation (-105) Play to -120

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Giants vs Yankees Odds, Picks, Predictions | MLB Betting Preview

giants-vs-yankees-mlb-odds-picks-predictions-march-30-2023

Giants vs. Yankees Odds

Thursday, March 30
1:05 p.m. ET
MLB Network
Giants Odds
Moneyline Total Run Line
+144
7
-115 / -105
+1.5
-152
Yankees Odds
Moneyline Total Run Line
-172
7
-115 / -105
-1.5
+126
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The day has finally come! Opening Day of the 2023 MLB season is here, and there is no better team to feature in one of the first matchups than the New York Yankees.

The Yankees will once again enter the season with lofty expectations after they failed to secure a 28th ring even after a historic season by Aaron Judge. However, with many familiar faces and some new ones bound to make an impact, optimism around this team is renewed.

As for their opposition, the San Francisco Giants enter the season looking to prove they belong in the wild NL West. Although they are going to have to prove themselves as they lack star power, but have plenty of talent.

So, what’s the best way to play this matchup, as both teams aim to start on the right foot? Let’s dive in to find out.

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San Francisco Giants

The Giants’ lineup is very intriguing. Of course, they hail in name recognition to the Bronx Bombers, but there are quite a few guys to keep your eyes on here.

It all starts with Joc Pederson. Pederson hit .274 with 23 homers from the leadoff spot for the Giants in 2022. His ability to make consistent hard contact makes him an immediate threat to Gerrit Cole, who’s given up his fair share of early homers while in pinstripes.

Another guy to highlight is Michael Conforto. Once a staple in Queens, the Mets let Conforto walk after 2021, and he spent the entirety of 2022 on the shelf with a shoulder injury. His contract is not a prove-it deal, but he will have a chance to remind the masses that he’s a real deal.

While there are a few other bats worth noting, they’ll all need to contend with Cole. Entering his age-32 season, Cole’s stuff is still among the best in baseball.

He finished the 2022 season among the top-10 percent of the majors in strikeout rate. Yet, for all the loud contact he surrendered, Cole still ranked in the top 25 percent in xBA.

Overall, the Giants’ outlook for this matchup is bleak. Six guys in this Giants lineup had strikeout rates above 21 percent, and only three had above-average hard-hit rates.

Expect Cole to keep the bats quiet on Opening Day.

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New York Yankees

The Bronx Bombers lived up to their nickname in 2022 as they led the majors in homers. Those 254 bombs stemmed from a ton of loud contact, as the Yankees were also top three in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity.

They were spurred by the historic season of Judge, who broke the Yankees’ single-season home run record on his way to winning the AL MVP. However, it will be hard for him to repeat history, and the regression from last year should start today.

The Yankees will be up against Logan Webb. The Giants sinkerballer is getting the Opening Day nod after finishing 2022 with a career-best 2.90 ERA.

Webb certainly profiles for success in this matchup, as his sinkerball will limit the Yankees’ ability to hit the ball in the air and subsequently leave the yard.

His groundball rate of 56.7 percent is well above the league average and should counteract the team that’s lineup that led the majors in home run to fly ball ratio last season.

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Giants vs. Yankees Betting Pick

Yankee Stadium is about as hitter-friendly as it gets, and the power in both of these lineups could lead to runs being put up in a hurry. Although that will likely not be the case in this Opening Day matchup.

The Giants’ lineup will struggle to make consistent contact against Cole, who had the strikeouts flowing this spring. Then on the other side, Webb should contain the powerful bats of the Yankees and keep them in the yard.

Both starters should succeed in this matchup, and runs will be at a premium. Take the under.

Pick: Under 7 or Better

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Pirates vs Reds Odds, Picks, Predictions | MLB Betting Preview

pirates vs reds-odds-picks-prediction-march 30-opening day-mitch keller-hunter greene

Pirates vs. Reds Odds

Thursday, March 30
4:10 p.m. ET
MLB.TV
Pirates Odds
Moneyline Total Run Line
+112
8.5
-105 / -115
+1.5
-184
Reds Odds
Moneyline Total Run Line
-132
8.5
-105 / -115
-1.5
+150
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

There are more entertaining Opening Day games out there, but you won’t find a grittier matchup than the one between the Pirates and Reds at Great American Ball Park.

I’m bullish on this matchup as the starting pitcher battle — Mitch Keller vs. Hunter Greene — is quite compelling. Meanwhile, young but unproven stars litter both rosters.

So, let’s break down the odds alongside my pick and prediction for Pirates vs. Reds. 

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Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates have been “trying” to build a contender for years. So, how did Ben Cherington further that goal over the offseason? 

Pittsburgh acquired a number of veterans that include Andrew McCutchen, Ji-Man Choi, Carlos Santana, Vince Velasquez and Rich Hill — one of the strangest offseason hauls for a rebuilding team I’ve ever seen. 

The average age of those four players is 37.1, and the average service time between them is 10.9 years. 

The Pirates also snagged Austin Hedges from Cleveland. Although he’s an excellent defensive catcher, he’ll do little to help the run-starved Pittsburgh lineup. 

However, the Pirates might have some pop in the lineup this year. 

ONeil Cruz’s chase rate declined toward the season’s end in 2022. All he needs to do is channel his unicorn-level athleticism and destroy baseballs. 

Meanwhile, Bryan Reynolds is projected to be a superstar despite the downward trend of his defense. Baseball Prospectus calls for a 132 DRC+ with 75 extra-base hits and 3.8 WARP.

Santana has been an above-average bat in four consecutive seasons by DRC+. His switch-hitting veteran savvy and uber-high walk rate (14% last season) makes him a plus contributor.

Ke’Bryan Hayes could also be a factor if he can rediscover his power swing from the abbreviated 2020 season. 

The Bucs bullpen projects to be terrible outside of David Bednar, same with the defense. So, hopefully, their Opening Day starting pitcher can live up to his unfound potential.

Starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 

For the umpteenth straight year, I’m targeting Mitch Keller as a potential breakout candidate. I’m hoping this is the season Keller finally realizes his potential as I’ll be betting on him often.

Midway through last season, Keller made two major changes to his arsenal. First, he overhauled his slider — the new pitch now has more sweeping action. 

Second, he added a sinker and started alternating that with his classic four-seam fastball.

The result was a lower-velocity arsenal, but a massive increase in weak contact. From May 31 onward, Keller posted a 7.6-degree average launch angle, the sixth-lowest in MLB during the stretch. Predictably, Keller started to see serious results. 

Keller even had a .322 BABIP during this stretch, indicating he could produce even more with his revamped arsenal. 

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Cincinnati Reds

There isn’t much to like from the Reds this year. Joey Votto (shoulder) is starting the year on the injured list, the lineup in general is shaky top-to-bottom and the bullpen is horrendous outside of Alexis Diaz.

I even have questions about Diaz, who gained national notoriety despite shaky peripherals. He posted a .178 BABIP over 63 2/3 innings, so naturally, Baseball Prospectus factors in negative regression and projects him for a 4.23 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with a BABIP closer to league average.

Diaz does have the highest-RPM fastball in the game, however.

If the Reds want to compete for third or fourth place in the NL Central, they’ll need a huge bounce-back year from Jonathan India, who backed up his ROY season with an underwhelming and injury riddled campaign.

India was trying to do too much at the top of the lineup, and he slowly lost touch with his natural swing. He started swinging more at pitches out of the zone, and his walk rate dropped 4% while his ISO dropped 60 points. If he returns to his roots, there are better days ahead from India.

The Reds will also need rotation pieces to capitalize on their sky-high potential.

Starting pitcher: Hunter Greene 

The bright spot for the 2023 Reds is a trio of great young pitchers. Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft and Hunter Greene are three guys with great stuff and uncapped ceilings. 

Greene is likely the most talented of the three. He’s a dark-horse Cy Young Award pick who’s carrying loads of momentum into this season.

Over the final four starts of 2022, Greene posted a 0.78 ERA with 37 strikeouts over 23 innings. He allowed just 12 hits while walking seven. 

Once he upped his slider usage to pair with his triple-digit fastball, Greene unlocked a new gear. The two pitches move in opposite directions, with the fastball seeing rising arm-side run and the slider dropping low and away from righties — it’s a tough mix. 

It’s hard to find a better pitcher than Greene from a pure stuff perspective, but he needed some refining and better control. He’s found it, and the league better watch out. 

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Pirates vs. Reds Betting Pick

I love these two starting pitchers. 

But the public doesn’t and neither do the projections — both viewpoints are warranted given their uneven 2022 seasons. 

But Keller and Greene also made significant arsenal changes, finished the year strong and had a great spring training (3.12 ERA for Greene; 3.45 for Keller). They are carrying serious momentum and have some of the nastiest stuff in the game.

Meanwhile, there’s no reason to trust either offense. The Reds are hurt and the Pirates have a horrendous bottom of the order. 

I’m looking to target a sneaky pitcher’s duel between Keller and Greene, and I suspect the market is undervaluing that option. 

I’ll take the F5 u4.5 (-120) available at DraftKings. I’m looking for these pitchers to quickly turn over the opposing lineups and start their hopefully excellent seasons with a quality start. 

Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-120)

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Mets vs Marlins Odds, Picks, Predictions | MLB Betting Preview

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Mets vs. Marlins Odds

Thursday, March 30
4:10 p.m. ET
MLB Network
Mets Odds
Moneyline Total Run Line
+126
6.5
-105 / -115
-1.5
+146
Marlins Odds
Moneyline Total Run Line
+108
6.5
-105 / -115
+1.5
-176
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Opening Day 2023 is finally here and what more could you ask for than a stacked Thursday slate. One of the more fun pitching matchups of the day is down in Miami, where Sandy Alcantara and the Marlins welcome in Max Scherzer and the New York Mets.

After a strong start to the year in 2022, the Mets fell apart late, losing the NL East division and eventually falling to the San Diego Padres in the Wild Card Round.  The Marlins, despite Alcantara’s NL Cy Young-winning season, finished with just 69 wins.

Here’s how to bet this NL East bout headlined by two of the best arms in the league.

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New York Mets

Gone are the days of Jacob deGrom opening the season for the Mets. He has since departed for Texas, leaving Scherzer at the forefront of the rotation.

Despite undergoing plenty of change in the rotation in the offseason, the Mets rotation remains a strength. They added defending AL Cy Young Justin Verlander and Kodai Senga to make up for the losses of deGrom and Chris Bassitt.  Jose Quintana, though injured, will also make for an excellent fourth starter.

Scherzer takes the mound for the Mets on Opening Day looking to build off an impressive first season in Queens where he posted a 2.29 ERA with strong advanced numbers (2.87 xERA, 10.7 K/9).

Surprisingly, Scherzer never faced the Marlins last season. While he had excellent control and limited batters to a .202 xBA, Scherzer did struggle a bit with barrel rate (8.4, a career low).

The Mets’ bullpen remains its biggest question after Edwin Diaz suffered what’s expected to be a season-ending knee injury. David Robertson assumes closing duties while NY shops the market in hopes of adding additional depth.

Not much has changed on the offensive end. The Mets finished third in wRC+ and sixth in wOBA. There wasn’t much production in the power department aside from Pete Alonso, where N.Y. finished 16th in ISO.

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Miami Marlins

Reigning Cy Young award winner Alcantara takes the mound looking to build off what was an incredible 2022 season.

Alcantara posted a career-best 2.92 xERA and .215 xBA, shoring up his control and becoming a reliable arm that consistently pitched late into games. He led all pitchers in both innings thrown — by more than 20 — and WAR (8.1).

As expected with such a dominant season, Alcantara overperformed slightly. His xFIP (3.29) was a run higher than his actual ERA (2.28) and his hard-hit rate sat in the bottom 50% of all pitchers.

That’s not to say Alcantara won’t replicate the year he had or that his advanced numbers are alarming — in fact, they’re still All-Star-level good. His control has continued to improve drastically year over year, too.

Against the Mets last season, Alcantara threw 27 innings across four starts. He finished with a 3.33 ERA and a .248 batting average against.

On the offensive end, the Marlins’ offense struggled mightily. Injuries played a huge factor, as Jorge Soler and Jazz Chisholm both logged fewer than 300 plate appearances. By year’s end, the Marlins finished 25th in wRC+ and isolated power, and 27th in wOBA.

This is a mixed offense of youthful potential and veterans, a perfect combination behind a talented and improving pitching staff. Jean Segura and Luis Arraez were brought in during the offseason to shore up the infield, with the latter of the two being one of the best pure hitters in baseball.

Arraez hit .316 last year for the Twins and finished in the top three percent of all hitters in strikeouts and xBA. Striking him out is near-impossible and he’s an on-base machine — 11th-best in on-base percentage and total hits last year — a necessary boost atop the Marlins’ offense.

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Mets vs. Marlins Betting Pick

While I have high hopes for the Marlins this season, I am a bit hesitant to back them out of the gate against the Mets here.

Alcantara has been dominant at loanDepot Park, but his underlying numbers do suggest some negative regression. The fact that he also threw 20 more innings than every pitcher in baseball — and 200 the year prior — makes me nervous for his outlook of 2023.

He has been overworked to the max and there were flashes of struggles as the season wound down. In his last eight games of the year, he gave up eight home runs. Alcantara has had mixed results against the Mets lineup that hasn’t changed, too.

If there’s one pitcher I trust given the pitch clock changes and adjusting early on, it’s Scherzer. His numbers have yet to regress despite his 38-year-old age and I’d expect yet another dominant season from the right-hander.

At a near PK and given how this pitching matchup is a near wash, I trust the better offense on Thursday, and that’s the Mets.

I expect the Marlins to find success throughout the season, but this is a long season and one where growing pains are expected. Alcantara is a bit overvalued here, so give me the Mets to bring home a win on Opening Day.

Pick: Mets (-130 or Better)

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Tigers vs Rays Odds, Picks, Predictions | MLB Betting Preview

tigers vs rays-odds-picks-prediction-mlb-opening day-march 30-player props-shane mcclanahan-eduardo rodriguez

Tigers vs. Rays Odds

Thursday, March 30
3:10 p.m. ET
MLB.TV
Tigers Odds
Moneyline Total Run Line
+190
7
-105 / -115
+1.5
-126
Rays Odds
Moneyline Total Run Line
-230
7
-105 / -115
-1.5
+105
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

It’s here! The Detroit Tigers are in St. Petersburg, Fla., to take on the Tampa Bay Rays for Opening Day baseball!

I hope you all are as excited as I am. Getting our season-long futures bets in makes for a fun January to March, but nothing matches the day-to-day of having a baseball game on for basically every hour over the next seven months.

It’s the time of year where hope springs eternal for every team. From clubs like the Tigers, who would shock most folks if they were in any sort of contention, to the Rays who, as always, seem to have positioned themselves to be a playoff team come October. There’s something — Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene, Wander Franco, Shane McClanahan, etc. — to get everyone’s hopes irrationally high.

Thursday’s opening game between the Tigers and Rays pits Eduardo Rodriguez and Shane McClanahan in a battle of southpaws. Interestingly, these are both teams that hit notably better against lefties last season. Let’s see if that carries over to 2023.

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Detroit Tigers

The delta between the Tigers’ output vs. right-handed pitchers (74 wRC+) and left-handed pitchers (100 wRC+) in 2022 was among the largest in baseball. They had the worst offense against righties but were a more respectable 19th against lefties.

However, it should be noted that their top four performers against lefties (min. 20 PA) won’t be in the lineup on Thursday. The however to that however is that three of those players contributed less than 30 PAs. (Robbie Grossman being the lone big contributor who is gone.)

Javy Baez (133 wRC+ vs. lefties), Eric Haase (121) and Riley Greene (116) will likely still be in the lineup against McClanahan. Sugar Shane is far from your standard southpaw, though, as THE BAT projections don’t have a single pitcher projected for as low an ERA on as many innings as McClanahan to start the season.

McClanahan has not proven to be overly splitty in his career, carrying a lower wOBA against right-handed batters than lefties.

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Tampa Bay Rays

For the Rays, they play the matchup game as well as any team, so it’s not shocking to see that they were also better vs. lefties (108 wRC+) than vs. righties (99 wRC+) in 2022.

The Rays had a remarkable 10 players with at least 45 PA and a wRC+ over 110 (!!) against lefties last season, and eight of those 10 could be in the starting lineup on Thursday.

It’s worth noting, though, that Eduardo Rodriguez is another reverse-split lefty, and he has done it over a far greater sample size. It makes sense, too, given his reliance on his changeup. That being said, E-Rod looked far from dominant after his lengthy absence last season, posting a 4.75 FIP over his final 52 innings to end 2022.

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Tigers vs. Rays Betting Pick

Overall, the Rays are the far better team, so it’s not surprising to see them as heavy favorites. I still like backing them, and I’m eyeing the run line for a few reasons.

For one, sharp money has come in on the over, and I agree with that move. As laid out above, both offenses excelled against lefties, and a total of 6.5 is quite low. In fact, it is also one of my leans.

Second, with it being Opening Day, both teams should have full rein over its bullpens. And, boy oh boy, is the Rays bullpen superior to the Tigers. Per FanGraphs Depth Charts, the Rays have the seventh-best bullpen compared to 28th for the Tigers.

The Rays should be able to hold the Tigers at arm’s length.

Pick: Rays -1.5

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Since it’s Opening Day, I’m also going to toss a couple potential player prop options at you.  Since these lines are not out yet, I’ll give you the vague feel for where I’m looking, but follow me in the Action Network app (@TurveyBets) to see my final bets on them.

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Braves vs Nationals Odds, Picks, Predictions | MLB Betting Preview

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Braves vs. Nationals Odds

Thursday, March 30
1:05 p.m. ET
MLB Network
Braves Odds
Moneyline Total Run Line
-270
7.5
-118 / -104
-1.5
-146
Nationals Odds
Moneyline Total Run Line
+220
7.5
-118 / -104
+1.5
-122
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Welcome to the 2023 Major League Baseball season, where the young and exciting Atlanta Braves get to take on Patrick Corbin and the Washington Nationals.

Max Fried will go for the Braves, so this is quite the contrast in southpaws at the helm. Patrick Corbin was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last season, so the line for this is a bit steep.

Meanwhile, Fried was as solid as always, although he did slip up in the postseason a little bit.

Given the amount of juice on the Braves’ side in this ballgame, the spread or the moneyline is not the right bet, but exploring the Braves’ team total is a good call.

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Atlanta Braves

Fried is an ace. Last season, he finished in the 92nd percentile in Average Exit Velocity and 90th percentile in Hard Hit Percentage. He also struck out more than 23% of batters, while only walking 4.4% of them, which was a career best.

From the time Juan Soto was traded last season through the end of the regular season, the Nationals walked just 5.7% of the time against left-handed pitchers. They have since added Dominic Smith, Jeimer Candelario and Corey Dickerson to the mix, but this lineup is still not very strong. All three of those players are looking to bounce back from weaker 2022 campaigns, too.

On the hitting side, the Atlanta Braves can smash the ball. In 2022, they ranked fifth in wRC+ at 118 against left-handed pitching. They held a .338 OBP and had little roster turnover in comparison.

They did lose William Contreras, but they added Sean Murphy. Orlando Arcia is their starting shortstop, so this is not the best offensive force in the middle infield, but the rest of this lineup is potent. Their numbers were consistent throughout the season. From August 1, 2022 and on, they held a 115 wRC+ off of southpaws with a .342 OBP.

Atlanta touted a 3.70 xFIP out of the bullpen last season, and the group is mostly unchanged. Raisel Iglesias will be out for the opener, but he will be backed up by A.J. Minter, Joe Jiménez and Collin McHugh. These three should be more than enough on the back of Fried, who is a horse and can throw over 180 innings per season.

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Washington Nationals

Corbin is the anti-Fried. In 2022, he ranked in the fourth percentile in Average Exit Velocity, the seventh percentile in Hard Hit Rate and the first percentile in xBA. He literally was one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB, and this is not an overstatement. His xERA was 6.41 against a 6.31 ERA, so the results were as expected. After the All-Star Break, he held a 7.13 ERA in 53 innings.

From August 1, 2022 and on, the Nationals held an 87 wRC+, ranking 25th against left-handed pitching. Their OBP was .293, as well, which can be partially attributed to that paltry walk rate against lefties in the latter part of the year.

Jiménez and McHugh are righties out of the bullpen for Atlanta, but Fried could easily go 6+ innings and then Minter will likely close this one out. That is at least seven innings of work the Nats need to do against a lefty.

Finally, the Nats bullpen is weak. Kyle Finnegan can be an OK closer at times, and Carl Edwards, Jr. produced strong 2022 results, but after Corbin gets shelled, Washington will be using some mop-up relievers.

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Braves vs. Nationals Betting Pick

Washington is clearly the weaker of the two and with little data supporting backing the underdog in this one.

Corbin is a mess and until he proves otherwise, bettors should look to fade him at every chance possible. Bet the Braves team total over 4.5 and play it to 5. They should stack up the runs early and knock around the Washington middle relief corps, too.

Pick: Atlanta Braves o4.5 (-125) | play to o5 (-125)

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NBA Player Props: Karl-Anthony Towns, LeBron James, RJ Barrett Among Best Picks

nba-player props-today-karl anthony towns-lebron james-rj barrett-best picks-march 29

Tonight, the New York Knicks will host the Miami Heat at Madison Square Garden. The Knicks are currently in great position to lock up the fifth seed, up 2.5 games on the Nets and three games on the Heat. That is in part because they hold 2-1 lead in the season series over Miami. All three games have been tightly contested, and RJ Barrett has been a key factor in all of them. That just may be the case again tonight.

The Knicks and Heat are relatively secure in their playoff positioning; however, the Lakers and Bulls are not. The Bulls took round one in Los Angeles on Sunday. However, the Lakers did get LeBron James back in the lineup. James will look to help the Lakers even the season series against the Bulls and maintain positioning in the West.

Speaking of returns, the Suns are getting Kevin Durant back tonight. While I am excited to watch, the Timberwolves do not care and will be looking to spoil his return. Karl-Anthony Towns, whom Minnesota just got back in their own lineup, has had a ton of success against Phoenix in his career and is in a prime spot to do so again.

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NBA Player Props & Picks

Heat vs.

Knicks

RJ Barrett Over 18.5 Points (-110)

Spread Knicks -5
Time | TV 7:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Best Line DraftKings

R.J. Barrett is not a player whom I look to back often; however, when I do, it usually means he is playing the Miami Heat. Barrett has hit his points prop in all three meetings against the Heat this season. Over the last two years, he is averaging 25.6 points per game against Miami. That includes games of 46, 30, and 26 points.

Barrett has scored 20 points or more in six of his last 10 games, including the game against Miami last Wednesday. He was also hooked on 19 points in a blowout on Monday against Houston.

For tonight’s game, point guard Jalen Brunson’s status is still undetermined and likely will remain that way until shortly before tip. I am comfortable with this line either way. If Brunson does not play, the Knicks will need more scoring from Barrett. However, if he does, he will help Barrett get a few easier buckets like in Wednesday’s game.

The Knicks may need more scoring from Barrett if Julius Randle is ineffective against Miami again. Last week, Bam Adebayo gave him fits once again, and he scored 15 as we cashed on his under (26.5) sweat-free.

However, Miami has struggled against more perimeter-oriented forwards like Barrett. In their last two games alone, forwards Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, Mikal Barnes and Cameron Johnson all went over their points lines as all scored at least 20 points. I expect Barrett to score 20 or more points in this matchup as well.

Pick: RJ Barrett Over 18.5 Points

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Lakers vs.

Bulls

LeBron James Over 24.5 Points (-120)

Spread Lakers -2
Time | TV 8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Best Line DraftKings

Perhaps unexpectedly, LeBron James returned to the Lakers lineup on Sunday against Chicago after missing 13 games with a right foot injury. He came off the bench for only the second time in his career but still played 30 minutes and scored 19 points. James is listed as questionable, but that has been the case for the majority of the games he has played in this season. However, it is worth monitoring before you lock in this bet.

If James does play, this line is too low. For starters, James is averaging 29.3 points per game this season. Now, that total is slightly inflated because of the damage he did when Anthony Davis was out.

However, James still has averaged 26 points per game when he has shared the floor with Davis this season. He also has averaged 25.9 points in his last 10 games. If James scores 26 points, he will clear this line even if he goes slightly below his season average.

The Lakers are also beginning a five-game road trip tonight, and they are currently ninth in the West. They are two games out of the sixth seed but also a half-game out of falling out of the play-in tournament altogether. Every game the rest of the way will be important for the Lakers, and I expect James to rise to the occasion.  Additionally, he may have a little extra motivation for this one.

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Timberwolves vs.

Suns

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 19.5 Points (-115)

Spread Suns -5
Time | TV 10 p.m. ET | ESPN
Best Line FanDuel

Since returning from a calf injury that cost him 51 games this season, Karl-Anthony Towns has played in two games, scoring 22 and 14 points. He sat out Monday’s game in Sacramento, which was the second leg of a back-to-back. Towns is listed as probable for tonight’s game in Phoenix, and it is one that I anticipate he will not want to miss.

Towns faced the Suns twice in November, and he scored 24 and 11 points in the two games. However, the Suns are a team he has dominated throughout his career.

In 24 career games against the Suns, Towns is averaging 23.7 points and 11.3 rebounds. He has scored 20 points or more in 16 of those 24 games. Three games that he went under were played during his rookie season. Since 2018, Towns has scored 20 points in 11 of his past 13 games against the Suns.

While history is on his side, Towns presents a matchup problem to this version of the Suns. Center Deandre Ayton will have Rudy Gobert, leaving Kevin Durant and Josh Okogie as the two most likely defenders on Towns.

Durant isn’t a defensive liability by any means, but it will be his first game back in the lineup from a sprained ankle. Head coach Monty Williams may not want to place that burden on Durant defensively, but he may not have a choice. Okogie is a pesky defender, but Towns is eight inches taller. Towns can shoot him over on the perimeter or take him to the post.

We are getting -115 odds for a line that Towns is hitting two thirds of the time against Phoenix and should hit again tonight. However, Towns also has 11 games of 25 points or more and six games of 30 or more against the Suns. If you are interested in laddering his points, FanDuel is offering 25 points at +230 and 30 at +700.

Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 19.5 Points

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NBA Odds, Best Bets: Expert Picks for Timberwolves vs. Suns

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The NBA regular season continues on Wednesday night with a 10-game slate and two nationally televised matchups. Our NBA betting experts have six best bets ready for five different games, including both matchups on ESPN. Find their best bets and analysis below.

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NBA Odds & Picks

Click on a game to skip ahead
Heat vs. Knicks Spread
7:30 p.m. ET
Heat vs. Knicks Player Prop
7:30 p.m. ET
Mavericks vs. 76ers Spread
7:30 p.m. ET
Lakers vs. Bulls Total
8 p.m. ET
Clippers vs. Grizzlies Player Prop
8 p.m. ET
Timberwolves vs. Suns Spread
10 p.m. ET

Heat vs. Knicks Spread

Pick
Knicks -4.5
Book
FanDuel
Tipoff
7:30 p.m. ET
TV
NBA League Pass

Chris Baker: It’s difficult to make a prediction without knowing the status of the two most impactful players on either side of the court, but if Jimmy Butler and Jalen Brunson are both able to go, I would lean toward the Knicks at -4.5.

This line says the Knicks are only 1-1.5 points better than the Raptors, as Toronto opened at -3 yesterday before Butler was ruled out.

Considering the Heat are now on a back-to-back and the Knicks rank a full two points ahead of the Raptors in Net Rating (+3.0 vs +1.0), I would have to make this line closer to -5.5/-6 if Brunson plays.

I expect Brunson to play tonight, so grab the Knicks at -4.5 now.

Pick: Knicks -4.5 (-110)

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Heat vs. Knicks Player Prop

Pick
Julius Randle Under 26.5 Points (-120)
Book
DraftKings
Tipoff
7:30 p.m. ET
TV
NBA League Pass

Bryan Fonseca: Last week, I assured y’all that Julius Randle would end the Knicks’ game against the Heat well under his points prop, and he did, finishing with 15, his lowest total in two months.

For many of those same reasons, I’m doing it again.

Randle has a 57-point outburst against the Minnesota Timberwolves to his name recently, but that aside, he hasn’t hit over 26.5 points in over two weeks. He, again, doesn’t typically play well against Bam Adebayo and the Miami Heat save for the 43 points he had recently, and he’s only been over 26.5 points twice since March 5.

The game itself also feels like an under — 223? Did you watch the Heat last night?

If Jimmy Butler plays, expect him to perform better on what would be, for him, three nights rest. But the Heat are coming off a back-to-back, flying from Toronto to New York last night, and their offense was miserable fewer than 24 hours ago.

The Knicks may win, but I don’t think it’ll be because of a Randle explosion.

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Mavericks vs. 76ers Spread

Pick
76ers -4.5
Book
FanDuel
Tipoff
7:30 p.m. ET
TV
ESPN

Kenny Ducey: For years now, the Mavericks have lived and died by the 3 far too many times to count. They’re ninth in that category for the season and won’t be excited to hear that the 76ers are one of the best in the NBA at defending the 3, particularly over the last 10 games where they’ve allowed just 32% of guarded looks to fall, the second-best mark in the NBA.

As a team ranked dead last in rebounding, the Mavericks also won’t have much fun against a 76ers team which has been strong on the glass of late. This is all on top of the fact that the Mavericks are a mess offensively, and the Sixers have been putting the clamps down.

The Sixers have lost just 11 games in Philly and enter this one 22-14-1 against the spread at home this season. I really don’t see Dallas winning, even in a must-win spot. The Sixers play excellent defense and have incredible depth, which should help them win even without Embiid and Harden.

I would lay the points here up to 6.5, but you’d probably be wise to wait on injury news. This line would indicate that sportsbooks feel at least Embiid is playing, so I wouldn’t expect a huge move if he’s ruled in. Without him, though, you’ll get an excellent price on the home team.

Pick: 76ers -4.5 (-110)

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Lakers vs. Bulls Total

Pick
Over 225
Book
FanDuel
Tipoff
8 p.m. ET
TV
NBA League Pass

Chris Baker: These teams cleared this total with LeBron James banged up and D’Angelo Russell out, so I will go back to the well here as both of those players are probable tonight.

Lebron and D’lo being in and 100% is a huge boon for this Lakers offense. In the small sample size we’ve seen of them together, the Lakers shot at the 100th percentile of Effective Field Goal percentage (63.2%). They also played extremely fast, pushing the ball in transition on 17.8% of their possessions. They also had a 100th percentile Transition Offensive Rating (+8.9) in those possessions together.

The Bulls are a league-average transition defense (16th) so I wouldn’t be overly concerned with them shutting down the Lakers’ transition game. The Lakers offense on Sunday also had a sound process, as they attempted 80% of their shots at the rim or from behind the arc. I expect their shooting efficiency to increase with their return to health.

Additionally, D’lo and Lebron’s return will be a huge detriment to the Lakers defense. D’lo has always been one of the worst on-ball defenders in the NBA and Lebron is not at the level he was in his prime, and frankly doesn’t give a lot of effort off the ball anymore. The Lakers do not have the wing defenders capable of matching up with Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan, so I expect them to get to their spots tonight.

Ultimately, the Lakers will play fast and have a ton of playmakers on the floor. Between Austin Reaves, LeBron, and D’lo, they should have plenty of ball-handlers capable of creating offense while simultaneously having guys whom the Bulls can pick on because of their defense. Take the over 225, and play this up to 226.5 tonight in Chicago.

Pick: Over 225

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Clippers vs. Grizzlies Player Prop

Pick
Luke Kennard Over 2.5 3s Made +128
Book
FanDuel
Tipoff
8 p.m. ET
TV
NBA League Pass

Brandon Anderson: Remember, you’ll need to wait to get clear Morant news before making any decision here.

If Morant sits, Jones props look like a good play, particularly any double-double at plus odds. If Morris sits for LA, a Batum 3s over could play. I still like riding Kennard’s hot hand best, especially in a revenge spot against his old team, and even more if Morant sits and frees up more shots. I’ll look to play Kennard’s 3s over and maybe go with 4+ or more on an escalator play.

If you’re looking for a side, the Clippers are in the more desperate spot but have struggled against top teams, and Memphis has been so good at home, with or without Morant. I’d lean toward a home cover but prefer the props.

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Timberwolves vs. Suns Spread

Pick
Timberwolves +6
Book
FanDuel
Tipoff
10 p.m. ET
TV
ESPN

Tyler Schmidt: Durant was hurt in warmups before his home debut in early March, but barring another freak injury, Durant will start in his first game at home for the Suns. It would be fitting for the Timberwolves to spoil Durant’s homecoming.

The Suns did win all three road games that Durant played in, but I smell an upset by the Timberwolves, or at least they play well enough to cover this spread. The Timberwolves are fully healthy and have a great mixture of veterans and young talent that are clicking at the right time.

I would take the Timberwolves at +6 with a sprinkle on the moneyline at +200. Take the Timberwolves down to +4 with Towns and Edwards probable to play.

If you are looking at a future, I’m buying this Timberwolves team. They are currently +4500 to win the Western Conference. This conference is a juggernaut, but it is also wide open, and I think they can make a run at the title.

Pick: Timberwolves +6 (Bet to +4)

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Timberwolves vs. Suns Odds, Pick, Prediction | NBA Betting Preview

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Timberwolves vs. Suns Odds

Timberwolves Odds +5
Suns Odds -5
Over/Under 234 (-110/-110)
Time 10 p.m. ET
TV ESPN
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The late game on ESPN Wednesday night features a Western Conference clash between the Phoenix Suns and Minnesota Timberwolves. Both teams are firmly in the playoff picture with only two weeks of games on the schedule.

The Suns are currently in the No. 4 seed and have a 97% chance of making the playoffs, per the FiveThirtyEight projections. Five of their seven remaining games are at home as they have a record of 24-12 in home games this season.

The Timberwolves are currently the No. 7 seed as they have won four-straight games. They have a 90% chance of making the playoffs with the second-easiest schedule among the nine teams to avoid the play-in tournament.

With both teams fully healthy, this game should include a lot of fireworks. Let’s break it down to find a betting edge for this big Western Conference matchup.

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Minnesota Timberwolves

Not only have the Timberwolves won four consecutive games, but they have done so beating very quality opponents — the Knicks, Hawks, Warriors and Kings. Three of those four games were also on the road and both Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards missed two games apiece during that stretch.

Both Towns and Edwards are probable for this matchup and it will be just the 23rd time the two suit up together this season. Edwards has been a stud in his third year in the league, averaging career-highs in points, rebounds, assists and shooting percentages. Towns, on the other hand, has been injured most of the season, but did hit a few huge 3-pointers in their win against the Warriors.

Having Towns and Edwards finally healthy makes this a dangerous team. Don’t forget about the acquisition to add veteran point guard Mike Conley either. In the month of March, the Timberwolves are tied for second in the league in assist ratio, behind only the Denver Nuggets. Conley seems to always make the right play and is also shooting a career-high 41.6% from downtown.

We haven’t seen much of the Rudy Gobert and Towns frontcourt, but pairing them with Jaden McDaniels makes this a massive starting unit. Over the last six games, Gobert is averaging a double-double with 14.8 points and 14 rebounds per game. A healthy team is a scary team and that is what the Timberwolves are heading into this game tonight with big playoff implications.

As underdogs, the Timberwolves cover the spread at a 58.5% clip. This spread has moved from -5 to -6 as of this writing, with 79% of the bets on the Suns. The public is envisioning a let down from the Timberwolves, but I wouldn’t be so sure about that. This team has the depth and talent to make life difficult for the Suns, even though they are getting back perennial superstar Kevin Durant.

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Phoenix Suns

Durant has only played three games with the Suns. He sat out from early January to early March and hasn’t played in a game since March 5th due to a different injury. It is difficult to project Durant’s minutes tonight, but getting him healthy for the stretch run is what the doctor ordered.

With Durant sidelined, Devin Booker has continued his ascend as an elite scorer. During this month, Booker is averaging 32.7 points per game while shooting 56.5% from the field and 43.3% from downtown. He has five assists in four-straight games while also contributing in the rebound department.

Deandre Ayton has also stepped up without Durant as he has been a steady producer scoring the ball and on the glass. Ayton is averaging a double-double for the fifth consecutive year, but he will have his hands full with the Towns and Gobert frontcourt. In two games against the Timberwolves this season, Ayton is averaging 10 points per game while shooting an abysmal 32% from the field.

This could be one of the last chances for the veteran point guard Chris Paul to hoist a championship trophy. He has really taken a step back scoring the ball as he is averaging a career-low 13.6 points per game, but makes up for it with 9.1 assists a night. Playing alongside Booker and Durant, all he has to do is pass.

The Timberwolves rank 11th in Defensive Rating (113.2) this season as they have several really good on-ball defenders. This matchup is a contrast of tempo as the Timberwolves rank fifth in Pace, while the Suns rank 20th. Losers of six of their last nine games, the Suns are in danger of dropping another game and falling down the Western Conference standings.

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Timberwolves-Suns Pick

Durant was hurt in warmups before his home debut in early March, but barring another freak injury, Durant will start in his first game at home for the Suns. It would be fitting for the Timberwolves to spoil Durant’s homecoming.

The Suns did win all three road games that Durant played in, but I smell an upset by the Timberwolves, or at least they play well enough to cover this spread. The Timberwolves are fully healthy and have a great mixture of veterans and young talent that are clicking at the right time.

I would take the Timberwolves at +6 with a sprinkle on the moneyline at +200. Take the Timberwolves down to +4 with Towns and Edwards probable to play.

If you are looking at a future, I’m buying this Timberwolves team. They are currently +4500 to win the Western Conference. This conference is a juggernaut, but it is also wide open, and I think they can make a run at the title.

Pick: Timberwolves +6 (Bet to +4)

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First to 15 NBA Odds & Picks: How to Bet Timberwolves vs. Suns (March 29)

There are so many ways to bet an NBA game, but for those bettors who can’t bear to sweat the full 48 minutes, there are other markets that offer more instant satisfaction. One of those markets is the Race to 15 Points. It’s as simple as the name suggests: The first team to hit 15 points cashes the bet.

Tonight we’re focused on one game: Timberwolves vs. Suns. Here’s a look at the best first to 15 pick for Wednesday’s slate.

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Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Phoenix Suns

First to 15 Odds Timberwolves: +110 | Suns: -140
Time | TV 10 p.m. ET | ESPN
SportsBook FanDuel

All the focus in this game is on Kevin Durant’s return to the court. There’s no debate that his impact will be huge for the Suns — he fits seamlessly with this team on offense — but I don’t think we’ll see that impact immediately as far as the Race to 15 market goes.

The Timberwolves have actually been the hotter team over their past 10 games, winning the Race to 15 in eight of those matchups. They are averaging 32.5 points in the first quarter over that span (third-most) and have the fifth-highest point differential (+3.7). This season, the Wolves have reached 15 points at the sixth-fastest rate (6:01) and rank 10th in first quarter Pace. They are one of the elite teams in this market.

So why are the Wolves dogs here? It would appear the books expect the Suns with Durant to dominate simply because he’s in the lineup. The recent and season long data don’t support that, though. Over those same 10 games, the Suns are 5-5 in the Race to 15 standings, 12th in first quarter points (29.7) and tied for seventh in first quarter point differential (+1.4). And for the season, the Suns have been a slower team in the first quarter in terms of Pace (99.97) and average time to 15 points (6:41), both marks rank 25th in the NBA.

There’s also the matchup. In the three games the Suns played with Durant, he played more of a decoy early on, which allowed Devin Booker, and Deandre Ayton to get better looks. But none of those teams have a center who can defend like Rudy Gobert. He can’t stop all five players on his own, but he can help neutralize the multiple threats the Suns can throw out.

I think the Suns are overvalued in this spot, so I’m taking the plus-money odds on the Wolves.

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UFC 287 Luck Ratings: The Undervalued Stars to Bet Now (Saturday, April 8)

Let’s look into some mispriced betting lines for UFC 287 on Saturday and see which fighters are overvalued and which are undervalued heading into the event.

UFC 287 takes place at Miami-Dade Arena in Miami. ESPN+ streams the early preliminary card (6 p.m. ET), and ESPN and ESPN+ carry the regular preliminary card ( 8 p.m. ET). The main card then streams via ESPN+ pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET.

With the UFC having this week off, most books have released UFC 287 lines early. That’s a perfect scenario for this column, as we’ll have a better chance at getting ahead of line movement that comes closer to fight day.

One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.

At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.

While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.

That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.

The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.

(Be sure to check out the latest UFC 287 odds.)

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* Odds as of March 29 and via FanDuel

Israel Adesanya (-150) vs. Alex Pereira (+118)

This fight – from a betting perspective, at least – is eerily similar to the UFC 286 headliner between Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards: longtime champions vanquished late in the fight with an immediate rematch, and the current champion lined as an underdog.

Like that fight, the former champion was firmly in control of the prior meeting before being put away late by the new champion.

Unfortunately, we’re not getting nearly the value on Pereira that we were given on “Rocky” a couple of weeks ago.

From a “luck” standpoint, Adesanya has the only split decision on his record of the pair. That was a win over Marvin Vettori, which he later cemented with a unanimous 50-45 victory. One could argue “Poatan” got lucky with the late finish in the first UFC meeting between the pair, but that’s a bit of a stretch.

This fight is the one instance on the card in which the opportunity to get in front of line movement has already passed us by. Pereira was as high as +180 or so when lines first popped up, but that number is long gone. I’m still leaning toward the Brazilian at the current lines, but it’s hard to say either man is significantly undervalued

Verdict: Fairly Valued

Gilbert Burns (-450) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+360)

Gilbert Burns’ five professional losses include two knockouts and three fairly clear decisions. One of those knockouts was to longtime welterweight kingpin Kamaru Usman – but the other was against lightweight Dan Hooker.

That was nearly five years ago, though, and outside of the Usman fight, Burns has been highly competitive in all of his fights. Even his unanimous-decision loss to Khamzat Chimaev was razor close, with a late flurry from Chimaev stealing a round that was likely going Burns’ way.

Masvidal has just one stoppage loss in the UFC, also coming against Usman. He’s riding a three-fight losing skid, though, with two losses to Usman and one to Colby Covington.

Remarkably, four of Masvidal’s eight UFC decision losses were splits, and he’s never won a split decision in the UFC.

I’ll have a hard time pulling the trigger here, but Masvidal deserves more respect. It’s been many years since he lost to anyone but the elite of the division, and he’s consistently got short shrift from the judges. I’ll probably wait to pull the trigger on a knockout prop rather than his moneyline, though, since Burns has a potentially questionable chin.

Verdict:  Masvidal Undervalued

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Adrian Yanez (-185) vs. Rob Font (+150)

Adrian Yanez is off to a hot start in his UFC career, ripping off five straight wins with four knockouts, as well as a KO on the Contender Series. He’s 19-3 overall as a professional with two of his three losses coming against fellow future UFC fighters – and both of those going to split decisions.

Rob Font is 9-5 in the UFC and currently riding a two-fight losing skid. He’s fought a higher level of competition than Yanez, but at 35, he is on the downswing of his career. His last few wins have aged poorly, as well, coming against fighters who were top contenders at the time but have been worse since.

Font has remarkably never had a split decision as a professional, and he is 3-4 in UFC fights involving the judges.

That all adds up to a pretty compelling case for Yanez being undervalued, as he hasn’t definitively lost a fight since 2014 (when he was just 20 years old). I’d expect this line to close closer to -225 or so on Yanez.

Verdict: Yanez Undervalued

Raul Rosas Jr. (-230) vs. Christian Rodriguez (+190)

This is a slight step up in competition for Raul Rosas Jr. – but not enough of one to scare me away.

Rosas closed north of -300 in his UFC debut against Jay Perrin, and it wouldn’t shock me to see this line get close to that number.

Christian Rodriguez is 1-1 in the UFC, but a win against Josh Weems doesn’t inspire much confidence. The UFC is in the Raul Rosas business, and this fight was put together to make the 18-year-old look good against a fellow grappler.

While it’s not based on “luck” in any meaningful way, the market is still a bit behind on Rosas, especially the -230 at Caesars. Other books have moved as far as -275, and it won’t be long before that line is the standard.

Verdict: Rosas Undervalued

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Kevin Holland (-310) vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio (+230)

Santiago Ponzinibbio is 1-2 in his last three, with both of the losses via split decision. Those losses both came against ranked welterweights in Michel Pereira and Geoff Neal.

Hard to hold either of those against him.

Since dropping down to welterweight, Kevin Holland is 2-2 in the UFC. All four of those fights have ended up inside the distance, though one needed the championship rounds.

Of course, those losses came in a weird fight against Khamzat Chimaev. That was on the reshuffled UFC 279 card, where Holland was originally scheduled against a different opponent. The other was against perennial contender Stephen Thomspon – so no shame in those losses either. He’s finished seven of his 10 UFC wins, and he’s 3-3 in decisions. Two of those decisions were splits with Holland winning both.

All things considered, this line feels a bit long on Ponzinibbio. Holland has publicly stated his interest in facing fellow strikers, and Ponzinibbio can stand and bang with anyone. This isn’t a high-confidence pick, but I’d line Ponzinibbio on the other side of +200.

Verdict: Ponzinibbio Undervalued

Luana Pinheiro (-165) vs. Michelle Waterson-Gomez (+140)

This is just the third UFC fight for Luana Pinheiro, who comes in to this one 10-1 overall and 2-0 in the promotion. While one of those wins was a disqualification, Pinheiro was dominating the early goings with her aggressive striking and high-impact judo throws. Her lone career loss was a split decision.

Her sophomore outing was somewhat less impressive as she struggled at times against Sam Hughes. It was still a clear win, though, and valuable experience for a fighter with seven straight first-round finishes.

MMA vet Michelle Waterson-Gomez has just one win in her last five fights, and it was a split decision at that. She’s 37, and it’s pretty clear at this point that her best days are in the rearview mirror.

From the tape I watched on Pinheiro, she’ll be very vulnerable to fighters with a strong wrestling base. That’s not Waterson, whose nickname is “The Karate Hottie” for a reason.

The -165 line is courtesy of BetMGM, and they’re the outlier here. Pinheiro is as high as -188 at other books, and she should finish this one at -200 or more.

Verdict: Pinheiro Undervalued

_InlineAdBlockRestart

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Bet $10 on the Tigers, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly!

Tigers baseball is back for the 2023 season.

And you can cash an instant $200 bonus by betting on them!

_SBPPromotionID=[16210]

BetMGM Sportsbook

Offer: Bet $10 on the Tigers, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly!

Bet now: Click here

  • Who’s it for? New users in MI, AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MD, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV and WY

That’s right. You don’t even need to wait and see what happens in the Tigers game you bet on. You’ll get a $200 bonus INSTANTLY after betting $10!

To get $200 in bonuses:

Click here

  • Register with code ACTIONMLB200
  • Make a deposit
  • Place a $10 bet on the Tigers moneyline — use the regular MLB betting market
  • Receive $200 in bonus bets instantly!

If you place ANY $10 bet on the Tigers, you’re looking at a $200 bonus.

Head on over to BetMGM Sportsbook today to cash in on the start of baseball season!

GET $200 IN BONUS BETS INSTANTLY!

_SBPPromotionID=[16210]

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, DC, IL, IN, LA, MD, MS, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY) Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). 21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI). Visit BetMGM.com for Terms & Conditions. US promotional offers not available in Nevada, New York or Ontario.

Posted on

Bet $10 on the Orioles, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly!

O’s baseball is back for the 2023 season.

And you can cash an instant $200 bonus by betting on them!

_SBPPromotionID=[16215]

BetMGM Sportsbook

Offer: Bet $10 on the Orioles, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly!

Bet now: Click here

  • Who’s it for? New users in MD, VA, AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MI, NJ, OH, PA, TN, WV and WY

That’s right. You don’t even need to wait and see what happens in the Orioles game you bet on. You’ll get a $200 bonus INSTANTLY after betting $10!

To get $200 in bonuses:

Click here

  • Register with code ACTIONMLB200
  • Make a deposit
  • Place a $10 bet on the Orioles moneyline — use the regular MLB betting market
  • Receive $200 in bonus bets instantly!

If you place ANY $10 bet on the Orioles, you’re looking at a $200 bonus.

Head on over to BetMGM Sportsbook today to cash in on the start of baseball season!

GET $200 IN BONUS BETS INSTANTLY!

_SBPPromotionID=[16215]

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, DC, IL, IN, LA, MD, MS, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY) Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). 21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI). Visit BetMGM.com for Terms & Conditions. US promotional offers not available in Nevada, New York or Ontario.

Posted on

Bet $10 on the Red Sox, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly!

Sox baseball is back for the 2023 season.

And you can cash an instant $200 bonus by betting on them!

_SBPPromotionID=[16206]

BetMGM Sportsbook

Offer: Bet $10 on the Red Sox, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly!

Bet now: Click here

  • Who’s it for? New users in MA

That’s right. You don’t even need to wait and see what happens in the Red Sox game you bet on. You’ll get a $200 bonus INSTANTLY after betting $10!

To get $200 in bonuses:

Click here

  • Register with code ACTIONMLB200
  • Make a deposit
  • Place a $10 bet on the Red Sox moneyline — use the regular MLB betting market
  • Receive $200 in bonus bets instantly!

If you place ANY $10 bet on the Sox, you’re looking at a $200 bonus.

Head on over to BetMGM Sportsbook today to cash in on the start of baseball season!

GET $200 IN BONUS BETS INSTANTLY!

_SBPPromotionID=[16206]

Visit BetMGM.com for terms and conditions. 21 years of age or older to wager. 21+ and present in MA. New customer offer. All promotions are subject to qualification and eligibility requirements. Rewards issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets. Bonus bets expire seven days from issuance. Please Gamble Responsible. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org. LiveChat with a GameSense Advisor at GameSenseMA.com or call 1-800-GAM-1234

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Bet $10 on the Astros, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly!

‘Stros baseball is back for the 2023 season.

And you can cash an instant $200 bonus by betting on them!

_SBPPromotionID=[16227]

BetMGM Sportsbook

Offer: Bet $10 on the Astros, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly!

Bet now: Click here

  • Who’s it for? New users in LA, AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, MD, MI, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV and WY

That’s right. You don’t even need to wait and see what happens in the Astros game you bet on. You’ll get a $200 bonus INSTANTLY after betting $10!

To get $200 in bonuses:

Click here

  • Register with code ACTIONMLB200
  • Make a deposit
  • Place a $10 bet on the Astros moneyline — use the regular MLB betting market
  • Receive $200 in bonus bets instantly!

If you place ANY $10 bet on the Astros, you’re looking at a $200 bonus.

Head on over to BetMGM Sportsbook today to cash in on the start of baseball season!

GET $200 IN BONUS BETS INSTANTLY!

_SBPPromotionID=[16227]

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, DC, IL, IN, LA, MD, MS, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY) Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). 21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI). Visit BetMGM.com for Terms & Conditions. US promotional offers not available in Nevada, New York or Ontario.

Posted on

Bet $10 on the Royals, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly!

Royals baseball is back for the 2023 season.

And you can cash an instant $200 bonus by betting on them!

_SBPPromotionID=[16209]

BetMGM Sportsbook

Offer: Bet $10 on the Royals, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly!

Bet now: Click here

  • Who’s it for? New users in KS, IA, AZ, CO, IL, IN, LA, MD, MI, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV and WY

That’s right. You don’t even need to wait and see what happens in the Royals game you bet on. You’ll get a $200 bonus INSTANTLY after betting $10!

To get $200 in bonuses:

Click here

  • Register with code ACTIONMLB200
  • Make a deposit
  • Place a $10 bet on the Royals moneyline — use the regular MLB betting market
  • Receive $200 in bonus bets instantly!

If you place ANY $10 bet on the Royals, you’re looking at a $200 bonus.

Head on over to BetMGM Sportsbook today to cash in on the start of baseball season!

GET $200 IN BONUS BETS INSTANTLY!

_SBPPromotionID=[16209]

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, DC, IL, IN, LA, MD, MS, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY) Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). 21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI). Visit BetMGM.com for Terms & Conditions. US promotional offers not available in Nevada, New York or Ontario.

Posted on

Bet $10 on the Cubs, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly!

mlb-picks-predictions-sharp-betting-yankees-vs-astros-reds-vs-cubs-thursday-june-30

Cubs baseball is back for the 2023 season.

And you can cash an instant $200 bonus by betting on them!

_SBPPromotionID=[16211]

BetMGM Sportsbook

Offer: Bet $10 on the Cubs, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly!

Bet now: Click here

  • Who’s it for? New users in IL, IA, IN, AZ, CO, KS, LA, MD, MI, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV and WY

That’s right. You don’t even need to wait and see what happens in the Cubs game you bet on. You’ll get a $200 bonus INSTANTLY after betting $10!

To get $200 in bonuses:

Click here

  • Register with code ACTIONMLB200
  • Make a deposit
  • Place a $10 bet on the Cubs moneyline — use the regular MLB betting market
  • Receive $200 in bonus bets instantly!

If you place ANY $10 bet on the Cubs, you’re looking at a $200 bonus.

Head on over to BetMGM Sportsbook today to cash in on the start of baseball season!

GET $200 IN BONUS BETS INSTANTLY!

_SBPPromotionID=[16211]

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, DC, IL, IN, LA, MD, MS, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY) Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). 21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI). Visit BetMGM.com for Terms & Conditions. US promotional offers not available in Nevada, New York or Ontario.

Posted on

Bet $10 on the Cubs or White Sox, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly!

Chi-Town baseball is back for the 2023 season.

And you can cash an instant $200 bonus by betting on the Cubs or White Sox!

_SBPPromotionID=[16213]

BetMGM Sportsbook

Offer: Bet $10 on the Cubs or White Sox, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly!

Bet now: Click here

  • Who’s it for? New users in IL, IA, IN, AZ, CO, KS, LA, MD, MI, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV and WY

That’s right. You don’t even need to wait and see what happens in the game you bet on. You’ll get a $200 bonus INSTANTLY after betting $10!

To get $200 in bonuses:

Click here

  • Register with code ACTIONMLB
  • Make a deposit
  • Place a $10 bet on the Cubs or White Sox moneyline — use the regular MLB betting market
  • Receive $200 in bonus bets instantly!

If you place any $10 bet on the North OR South Siders, you’re looking at a $200 bonus.

Head on over to BetMGM Sportsbook today to cash in on the start of baseball season!

GET $200 IN BONUS BETS INSTANTLY!

_SBPPromotionID=[16213]

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, DC, IL, IN, LA, MD, MS, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY) Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). 21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI). Visit BetMGM.com for Terms & Conditions. US promotional offers not available in Nevada, New York or Ontario.

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FanDuel Massachusetts Promo Code Earns $200 on Any NHL or NBA Matchup Wednesday

Several national telecasts of NHL and NBA spearhead the Wednesday betting board and those seeking to place action can utilize a FanDuel Massachusetts promo code for $200 in bonus bets.

If you’re betting in another state outside of Massachusetts, there’s the usual $1,000 no-sweat first bet offer available. So  I wager $100 on the Cubs to beat Brewers at +136 odds with my first bet, I would get $100 back in bonus bets if the Cubs lose. A win would give the regular payout.

Promo Code State Offer
Click to unlock Massachusetts Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets
Click to unlock All Other FanDuel States $1,000 No Sweat Bet

_InlineAdBlock=4

The Massachusetts $200 offer just requires a $5 or more bet to access the bonus bets. These offers can all be used on any sport or event.

The New York Islanders look to take a step closer to securing a playoff berth against the down-and-out Washington Capitals at 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT. We’ll use this game as an explainer to wagering with bonus bets at FanDuel on Wednesday.

Using FanDuel Bonus Bets: Islanders-Capitals

In terms of how bonus bets work, there’s a different avenue we advise readers to take as opposed to their usual betting.

Since these are a second chance and we won’t hold onto the stake once it’s bet, we want the best payout possible. Let’s stick with the riskier plays to avoid juice.

Before using bonus bets, check out the math in our +EV betting guide. This will help in understanding the value you accrue over time by taking higher lines.

What is EV? Think of it in terms of it being what you’d win if you made a bet an infinite amount of times. If you were offered 3-1 odds on a coin toss, you always take it, even if you know that one flip could lose.

But when it comes to EV in the context of sports betting promos, you don’t have an infinite number to claim. You’re looking to secure cash in return.

So plus money it is. Let’s break down the Islanders-Capitals matchup to select a bet to demonstrate with.

Islanders-Capitals Bonus Bets Preview

As the Islanders pace themselves to claim the first Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference playoff picture, several bubble teams are scraping up points in their rearview.

New York draws a battered team Capitals team that sits six points out with eight games remaining. The Isles conquered the Devils with a crucial 5-1 victory on Monday and are looking to accelerate out of arm’s reach from the pack.

Washington owns both previous meetings against the Island as it took the last 5-1 just a couple of weeks ago. But it’s 1-5-1 in its last six and 3-5-2 in its last 10 games.

Goaltending has been an issue for Washington in what will likely be its first playoff emission since 2014. Both Darcy Kuemper and Charlie Lindgren have combined for .899 SV% and a 3.08 GAA,

On the other hand, the Islanders best player — and major reason for playoff relevancy — has been Ilya Sorokin, who has made a sturdy case for the Vezina despite Linus Ullmark’s nearly perfect season. Sorokin owns 27 wins and a .925 SV% despite a team scoring at the 21st best rate in front of him at 2.99.

In Sorokin’s four career games vs. Washington, he has seen a minimum of 30 shots and holds a .908 SV%.

Let’s look at the market for Sorkin’s Alt Saves, which FanDuel prices 33+ saves at +255 odds.

How Will This Bet Settle?

If I were to place $100 in bonus bets on Sorokin to record 33+ saves at +255 odds, I would either get $255 in real cash back or profit nothing. Remember, you won’t keep the stake after wagering, so it’s imperative to reach for higher lines.

Signing Up For FanDuel

Signing up for FanDuel is an easy 4-step process. Follow the directions below to get your account activated and ready for betting.

Step 1. Click here to visit FanDuel. Navigate to “Bet Now” in the middle of the page, and select your state.

Step 2. Enter your details:

  • Email
  • Username
  • Create a Secure Password
  • Legal Name
  • Date of Birth
  • Home Address
  • Last four digits of your SSN

Step 3. Confirm your age and eligibility (must be 21+ years old).

Step 4. You’re ready to deposit and bet!

If you or a loved one is experiencing problems with gambling, please call 1-800-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org for 24/7 support. LiveChat with a GameSense Advisor at GameSenseMA.com or call 1-800-GAM-1234

Posted on

Bet $10 on the Rockies, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly!

Rox baseball is back for the 2023 season.

And you can cash an instant $200 bonus by betting on them!

_SBPPromotionID=[16208]

BetMGM Sportsbook

Offer: Bet $10 on the Rockies, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly!

Bet now: Click here

  • Who’s it for? New users in CO, AZ, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MD, MI, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV and WY

That’s right. You don’t even need to wait and see what happens in the Rockies game you bet on. You’ll get a $200 bonus INSTANTLY after betting $10!

To get $200 in bonuses:

Click here

  • Register with code ACTIONMLB200
  • Make a deposit
  • Place a $10 bet on the Rockies moneyline — use the regular MLB betting market
  • Receive $200 in bonus bets instantly!

If you place ANY $10 bet on the Rockies, you’re looking at a $200 bonus.

Head on over to BetMGM Sportsbook today to cash in on the start of baseball season!

GET $200 IN BONUS BETS INSTANTLY!

_SBPPromotionID=[16208]

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, DC, IL, IN, LA, MD, MS, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY) Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). 21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI). Visit BetMGM.com for Terms & Conditions. US promotional offers not available in Nevada, New York or Ontario.

Posted on

Bet $10 on the Diamondbacks, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly!

Snakes baseball is back for the 2023 season.

And you can cash an instant $200 bonus by betting on them!

_SBPPromotionID=[16207]

BetMGM Sportsbook

Offer: Bet $10 on the Diamondbacks, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly!

Bet now: Click here

  • Who’s it for? New users in AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MD, MI, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV and WY

That’s right. You don’t even need to wait and see what happens in the Diamondbacks game you bet on. You’ll get a $200 bonus INSTANTLY after betting $10!

To get $200 in bonuses:

Click here

  • Register with code ACTIONMLB200
  • Make a deposit
  • Place a $10 bet on the Diamondbacks moneyline — use the regular MLB betting market
  • Receive $200 in bonus bets instantly!

If you place ANY $10 bet on the D-Backs, you’re looking at a $200 bonus.

Head on over to BetMGM Sportsbook today to cash in on the start of baseball season!

GET $200 IN BONUS BETS INSTANTLY!

_SBPPromotionID=[16207]

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, DC, IL, IN, LA, MD, MS, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY) Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). 21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI). Visit BetMGM.com for Terms & Conditions. US promotional offers not available in Nevada, New York or Ontario.

Posted on

Bet $10 on the Braves, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly (& More)!

dodgers-vs-braves-odds-picks-predictions-mlb-friday-june-24-2022

Braves baseball is back for the 2023 season.

And you can cash in on any of their games with these sportsbook promos:

_SBPPromotionID=[16230, 16052-TN]

Check out all of the details below.

BetMGM Sportsbook

Offer: Bet $10 on the Braves, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly!

Bet now: Click here

  • Who’s it for? New users in TN, AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MD, MI, NJ, OH, PA, VA, WV and WY

_SBPPromotionID=[16230]

That’s right. You don’t even need to wait and see what happens in the Braves game you bet on. You’ll get a $200 bonus INSTANTLY after betting $10!

To get $200 in bonuses:

Click here

  • Register with code ACTIONMLB200
  • Make a deposit
  • Place a $10 bet on the Braves moneyline — use the regular MLB betting market
  • Receive $200 in bonus bets instantly!

If you place ANY $10 bet on the Braves, you’re looking at a $200 bonus.

Head on over to BetMGM Sportsbook today to cash in on the start of baseball season!

GET $200 IN BONUS BETS INSTANTLY!

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, DC, IL, IN, LA, MD, MS, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY) Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). 21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI). Visit BetMGM.com for Terms & Conditions. US promotional offers not available in Nevada, New York or Ontario.

WynnBET Sportsbook

Offer: Bet $20 on the Braves, Get $100 in Bet Credits (Win or Lose!)

Bet now: Click here

  • Who’s it for? New users in TN

_SBPPromotionID=[16052-TN]

That’s right. WynnBET is giving you a $100 bonus when you bet on your Bravos.

Just opt into the offer, and remember: you need to make a wager with odds of -120 or greater (ex. -120, -110, +110, +150…). Otherwise, the promo doesn’t work.

To earn your $100 bonus:

Click here

  • Register your account
  • Click “Deposit Now” and deposit $20+
  • Place a $20+ bet on any Braves game (with odds of -120 or greater; -115, -110, +105, +120, etc.)

Note: You will receive two $50 bonuses after your wager settles. The qualifying bet can be applied to any game or market. This team is being used as an example. Full terms here.

As long as you place a $20+ bet, you’re getting a $100 bonus once it settles, no matter the result!

Head on over to WynnBET today.

Win a guaranteed $100 bonus

Must be 21+ and present in TN. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. A Problem Gambling Helpline is available 24/7 at 1-800-589-9966 or texting 4HOPE to 741741.

Posted on

Bet $10 on the Phillies or Pirates, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly (& More)!

Baseball is back for the 2023 season!

And you can cash in on any Phillies OR Pirates game with these promos:

_SBPPromotionID=[16225, 16079-PA]

Check out all of the details below.

BetMGM Sportsbook

Offer: Bet $10 on the Phillies or Pirates, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly!

Bet now: Click here

  • Who’s it for? New users in PA, NJ, AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MD, MI, OH, TN, VA, WV and WY

_SBPPromotionID=[16225]

That’s right. You don’t even need to wait and see what happens in the game you bet on. You’ll get a $200 bonus INSTANTLY after betting $10!

To get $200 in bonuses:

Click here

  • Register with code ACTIONMLB200
  • Make a deposit
  • Place a $10 bet on the Phillies or Pirates moneyline — use the regular MLB betting market
  • Receive $200 in bonus bets instantly!

If you place any $10 bet on Philly OR Pittsburgh, you’re looking at a $200 bonus.

Head on over to BetMGM Sportsbook today to cash in on the start of baseball season!

GET $200 IN BONUS BETS INSTANTLY!

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, DC, IL, IN, LA, MD, MS, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY) Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). 21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI). Visit BetMGM.com for Terms & Conditions. US promotional offers not available in Nevada, New York or Ontario.

betPARX

Offer: Bet $10, Get $125 in Sports Bonus if the Phillies or Pirates Win!

Bet now: Click here

  • Who’s it for? New users in PA

_SBPPromotionID=[16079-PA]

With this amazing offer, you’re essentially getting +1250 odds on the Philly or Pittsburgh moneyline for any of their games!

To take advantage:

Click here

  • Sign up with code ACTION
  • Make a $10+ deposit
  • Place a $10+ bet on the Philadelphia or Pittsburgh moneyline (use the normal market)
  • Receive $125 in bonus bets if your bet wins!

Note: If your bet wins, you will receive one $25 sports bonus bet after your bet settles. You’ll then receive one $25 sports bonus bet every week for the next four weeks. Philadelphia and Pittsburgh’s moneylines are being used as examples — the qualifying bet can be placed on any sports market (no minimum odds requirement).

What are you waiting for? Sign up at betPARX now for a great chance at $125 in sports bonus bets.

BET $10, GET $125 IF YOUR TEAM WINS!

Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Must be 21+ & located in PA or NJ. New users & winning bets only. T&Cs apply. See website for details.

Posted on

Bet $10 on the Tigers, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly (& More)!

Tigers baseball is back for the 2023 season.

And you can cash in on any of their games with these promos:

_SBPPromotionID=[16210, 16067, 16180-MI]

Check out all of the details below.

BetMGM Sportsbook

Offer: Bet $10 on the Tigers, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly!

Bet now: Click here

  • Who’s it for? New users in MI, AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MD, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV and WY

_SBPPromotionID=[16210]

That’s right. You don’t even need to wait and see what happens in the Tigers game you bet on. You’ll get a $200 bonus INSTANTLY after betting $10!

To get $200 in bonuses:

Click here

  • Register with code ACTIONMLB200
  • Make a deposit
  • Place a $10 bet on the Tigers moneyline — use the regular MLB betting market
  • Receive $200 in bonus bets instantly!

If you place ANY $10 bet on the Tigers, you’re looking at a $200 bonus.

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2023 Blue Jays World Series Odds, Division Futures, Best Bets, More

blue-jays-world-series-odds-division-futures-mlb-2023

Toronto Blue Jays

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +200
Pennant Odds +600
World Series Odds +1200
Regular Season Wins 91.5
To Make Playoffs Yes -250 / No +198

Odds via FanDuel. For updated MLB futures all season long, click here.

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Best Bet: Blue Jays To Win AL East (+220)

Doug Ziefel: The Blue Jays were a team getting a ton of love heading into last season, as they were a trendy World Series pick. Although those aspirations did not come to fruition as injuries struck, the lineup was a tad streaky, and their season culminated with a wild-card elimination.

However, fans and bettors should have renewed optimism around this club as they may be stronger than last year. They bolstered the starting rotation with the signing of Chris Bassitt and gave their lineup some flexibility by acquiring Daulton Varsho.

Speaking of the lineup, it will still be a daunting task for any pitcher to go through. Toronto led the majors in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity last season and will be near the top again if the lineup remains intact.

The Blue Jays’ ability to drive the ball and make loud contact will help them climb the standings this season, as a stable rotation will support the lineup, and we should also expect the Yankees to regress as well.

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2023 Diamondbacks World Series Odds, Division Futures, Best Bets, More

diamondbacks-world-series-odds-division-futures-mlb-2023

Arizona Diamondbacks

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +4000
Pennant Odds +5000
World Series Odds +12000
Regular Season Wins 75.5
To Make Playoffs Yes +430 / No -620

Odds via FanDuel. For updated MLB futures all season long, click here.

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Best Bet: Over 74.5 Wins

Anthony Dabbundo: Stolen base attempts are up 20% in spring training this season compared to last year’s spring training. From a team speed perspective, few are better positioned to take advantage of the stealing enhancement than the Diamondbacks.

Corbin Carroll was the fastest player in all of MLB in his debut last September. Jake McCarthy is projected to swipe 25-plus bases. Josh Rojas stole 23 last year, and Alek Thomas is in the 95th percentile for sprint speed on Baseball Savant.

Arizona could also turn to Jordan Lawlar — one of its top prospects — in the middle of the season, and he’d add more speed to the basepaths as well.

This team will put a ton of pressure on opposing defenses because of its speed, and the Diamondbacks are also projected to be a well above-average defense too. By outs above average, no team was even close to Arizona last season with a +44 rating. The next best was Houston at +36.

The defense and the speed are small difference-makers that season-long projections can sometimes miss on a team.

The upside for this roster comes from its young pitching. Ryne Nelson, Drey Jameson and Brandon Pfaadt all add depth to this starting rotation behind the solid front three of Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Madison Bumgarner. Nelson registered a 117.8 Stuff+, per Eno Sarris’ model from The Athletic, and paired that with above-average command. He has three good pitches and could become a rotation regular.

Pfaadt struggled with homers in the PCL in the minors, but his high fastball should be electric in a more friendly pitching environment. Jameson doesn’t have overwhelming stuff but locates well and has a decent floor as a back-end starter because of it.

Last season, The Diamondbacks were one of the most profitable first-five teams in the whole sport but couldn’t carry it through nine innings. The bullpen once again is a weakness on paper, but the natural variance and randomness to bullpens on a year-to-year basis suggest there’s room to regress positively.

There’s some disagreement in the models on Arizona this season. ZiPS has it at 81 wins, PECOTA is at 73.8 and FanGraphs is at 77.

I love the young pitching, and the Diamondbacks are my favorite win total of the season at over 74.5 wins. I’d play the over at 75.5 but no higher than that.

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2023 Cubs World Series Odds, Division Futures, Best Bets, More

cubs-world-series-odds-division-futures-mlb-2023

Chicago Cubs

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +600
Pennant Odds +4000
World Series Odds +8000
Regular Season Wins 76.5
To Make Playoffs Yes +320 / No -430

Odds via FanDuel. For updated MLB futures all season long, click here.

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Best Bet: Cubs To Win NL Central (+700)

Dylan Wilkerson: The NL Central was the laughing stock of the National League last year, and when you take a look at the league as a whole, you can understand why. The Central’s only representative in the playoffs last season was the Cardinals who won the division. 

When you consider that the winner of the division only has to beat out the Brewers, Pirates, and the Reds (aka Seattle’s farm team), there seems to be one team that rises out of the muck, the Chicago Cubs. 

The Cubs made major moves in the offseason, as they both retained and acquired talent from across the league. Trey Mancini signed after having a great season with both the Orioles and Astros. His production and reliability should add some consistency to the Cubs’ roster as he has played in 140+ games every year since 2017. 

Nico Hoerner will be back this season and bring his exceptional plate discipline with him. His transition to second base should be smooth, and he will be a great complement to the newly acquired shortstop, Dansby Swanson.

The Cubs’ pitching struggled last season, allowing the third-most home runs in the league. Chicago’s pitching was in the middle of the league in a variety of other stats, but their acquisitions may elevate them to the top. Jameson Taillon should be helpful in the rotation alongside Marcus Stroman and Kyle Hendricks, and there are plenty of intriguing young arms, too, such as Justin Steele and Hayden Wesneski. 

This is both a play on the moves that the Cubs made in the offseason, as well as the weakness of their division. At +650 to win one of the weakest divisions in baseball? Sign me up.

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2023 White Sox World Series Odds, Division Futures, Best Bets, More

white-sox-world-series-odds-division-futures-mlb-2023

Chicago White Sox

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +300
Pennant Odds +1600
World Series Odds +3500
Regular Season Wins 83.5
To Make Playoffs Yes +128 / No -158

Odds via FanDuel. For updated MLB futures all season long, click here.

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Best Bet: Under 83.5 Wins

Sean Zerillo: The White Sox overachieved by three wins last season and still finished nine wins below their win total. Every projection system likes them to go Under again in 2023, and I am the low man in the market — seeing nearly a seven-win gap between my projection and Chicago’s listed total; while the projection market is closer to a four-win delta.

The White Sox were miserable defensively in 2022 (-35 Defensive Runs Saved, 26th) and should be worse without the shift (12 Defensive Runs Saved via the shift). They also ranked as a bottom-10 baserunning team.

While this 26-man roster offers high-end talent, their 40-man roster (and beyond) lacks competent replacements.

The White Sox will need extraordinary injury luck to make a playoff push in 2023.

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2023 Rockies World Series Odds, Division Futures, Best Bets, More

rockies-world-series-odds-division-futures-mlb-2023

Colorado Rockies

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +15000
Pennant Odds +10000
World Series Odds +50000
Regular Season Wins 64.5
To Make Playoffs Yes +2500 / No -10000

Odds via FanDuel. For updated MLB futures all season long, click here.

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Best Bet: CJ Cron To Have Most Home Runs (+9000)

Kenny Ducey: You wanna get nuts? Let’s get nuts.

Oh, did you expect to take the easy road here and tell you that Ezequiel Tovar at +1200 has a real chance to win Rookie of the Year? He very well may, but that’s not the biggest value on the board in my eyes.

No, I think CJ Cron has a better than the implied 1.1% chance to lead the league in homers. There are certainly some formidable names in front of him like Aaron Judge, Matt Olson, Kyle Schwarber and others, but Cron isn’t too far away from the league’s top tier when it comes to homers.

The big man has big power at 6-foot-4, 235 lbs, and gets to put it to use in the friendliest park in the league. He’s averaged right around 29 homers the last two seasons and even made his first All-Star Game last year as his career continues on an upward trajectory.

Now, Cron is 33 and there’s certainly a real chance that 2022 was his peak, and that he starts getting worse. There’s also a chance that the last two seasons are reason enough to believe he’s finally found his rhythm at the plate. He’s been a virtual lock to come in around or just under 30 homers for his past four healthy seasons, which normally puts him in the top 25 of all home run hitters.

It’s certainly a longshot, but it’s the most fun you can possibly have betting on the Colorado Rockies. Another thing to love here is the fact that Cron has played 292 of a possible 324 games over the past season, so he should be on the field to give this home run crown a real run.

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2023 Orioles World Series Odds, Division Futures, Best Bets, More

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Baltimore Orioles

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +2500
Pennant Odds +4000
World Series Odds +10000
Regular Season Wins 76.5
To Make Playoffs Yes +320 / No -430

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Best Bet: Grayson Rodriguez to Win AL Rookie of the Year (+1300)

Sean Zerillo: We might as well begin by discussing the biggest spring riser — Anthony Volpe (the No. 5 prospect per MLB Pipeline) — who I bet and entered into the Action App at +2500 on February 23rd. When I ran early projections, Volpe was the only player who stacked up with presumptive favorite Gunnar Henderson (No. 1 prospect) based on average WAR as a component of playing time.

In late February, I only had Volpe slated for 250 plate appearances but was willing to speculate on his talent level (represented by the matching average WAR projection). After a strong spring, I now project Volpe for closer to 560 plate appearances, with the opportunity for even more depending upon his lineup spot, health and performance.

For context, three different projection systems have updated their numbers since Volpe won a roster spot; all have him projected between 3.0 and 3.5 WAR.

At this point, I would just about set Volpe as a co-favorite with Henderson, and considering the price differential, the Yankees’ phenom is still my favorite bet in the AL, down to +500.

While pitchers typically don’t win the award, there are a couple of potential studs in the 2023 class with Grayson Rodriguez (No. 7 prospect) and Hunter Brown (No. 43). Rodriguez will start the year in the minors after a shaky spring, while Brown is currently nursing a back injury. Still, both have the potential to emerge as frontline starters at the MLB level immediately.

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BetMGM First Bet: Timberwolves-Suns 

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns head into Wednesday’s matchup in a good playoff position. Phoenix is fourth in the Western Conference, while Minnesota is a half-game behind the Golden State Warriors for the No. 6 seed.

The Suns will receive a big boost with the expected return of Kevin Durant. Durant missed the last 10 games after suffering an ankle injury.

It has been a while since Minnesota operated at full strength, but their big three should be good to go. How will that impact your betting pick? Check out our Timberwolves-Suns game pick.

Durant was hurt in warmups before his home debut in early March, but barring another freak injury, Durant will start in his first game at home for the Suns. It would be fitting for the Timberwolves to spoil Durant’s homecoming.

The Suns did win all three road games that Durant played in, but I smell an upset by the Timberwolves, or at least they play well enough to cover this spread. The Timberwolves are fully healthy and have a great mixture of veterans and young talent that are clicking at the right time.

I would take the Timberwolves at +6 with a sprinkle on the moneyline at +200. Take the Timberwolves down to +4 with Towns and Edwards probable to play.

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2023 Nationals World Series Odds, Division Futures, Best Bets, More

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Washington Nationals

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +25000
Pennant Odds +20000
World Series Odds +50000
Regular Season Wins 58.5
To Make Playoffs Yes +3000 / No -20000

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Best Bet: Under 59.5 Wins

Anthony Dabbundo: The Nationals don’t have a single hitter projected to be above-average by The BAT X projections this season. The roster is almost completely barren of everyday MLB talent and it’s not like the Nationals are in a position to have top young prospects come up and make an immediate impact in 2023, either.

Most of the guys they got in the Juan Soto trade are still developing. CJ Abrams is a nice shortstop defensively, but his bat still needs work. The pitching situation isn’t all that much better. The Nationals had a solid bullpen in 2022, but that’s hard to rely on year to year.

The rotation features Patrick Corbin, who had one of the worst fastballs in baseball last year and lost 19 games himself. They lost top pitching prospect Cade Cavalli to Tommy John and will have low upside journeymen Chad Kuhl and Trevor Williams in the starting rotation alongside promising youngsters Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore. 

PECOTA does have them at 61 wins, but I’m much closer to the FanGraphs projection for 55 wins in 2023. This is the league’s worst team, and not even a somewhat more friendly schedule with fewer games against the top of the NL East will save them from that.

The Nationals played at a 55-win pace after trading Josh Bell and Soto at the deadline.

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2023 Pirates World Series Odds, Division Futures, Best Bets, More

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Pittsburgh Pirates

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +3800
Pennant Odds +8000
World Series Odds +20000
Regular Season Wins 67.5
To Make Playoffs Yes +1500 / No -5000

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Best Bet: Over 67.5 Wins

Mike Ianniello: You’d be hard-pressed to find a fanbase that deserves better than Pittsburgh Pirates fans. Pittsburgh is one of the best sports towns in the country, yet the Yinzers are stuck watching a team every year assembled by an owner who continues to not care. The Pirates have missed the playoffs seven straight years and have just three postseason appearances in the last 29 years.

The Buccos won just 62 games last season, the third-worst record in the league. However, I see a reason for some optimism this year. Will they contend for the postseason? No. But they should be fun to watch and resemble a competent ball club this year. Last year, the Pirates were basically a Triple-A team. Daniel Vogelbach was second on the team in wRC+ and played just 75 games with Pittsburgh.

Well, this season we will actually see some major league-caliber players take the field along the Allegheny River. The Pirates continue to work on a contract extension for All-Star center fielder Bryan Reynolds, and young stars Oneil Cruz and Ke’Bryan Hayes are an electric duo on the left side of the infield that should only continue to improve. 

This offseason they added Ji-Man Choi, Carlos Santana, Austin Hedges, and of course the return of former MVP, Andrew McCutchen. The longtime face of the franchise will provide an instant injection of life into that locker room and the fan base. Not to mention he is just one year removed from a 27-home run season. 

A talented group of young arms in Mitch Keller, Roansy Contreras and JT Brubaker are joined by veterans Rich Hill and Vince Velasquez, and Pittsburgh somehow always manages to have a stud closer. I think we see a big jump up from this Pirates team. Even league-average players throughout the lineup is an upgrade from last season. 

Take the Pirates to raise the jolly roger at least 68 times this season.

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2023 Phillies World Series Odds, Division Futures, Best Bets, More

phillies-world-series-odds-division-futures-mlb-2023

Philadelphia Phillies

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +400
Pennant Odds +750
World Series Odds +1500
Regular Season Wins 88.5
To Make Playoffs Yes -192 / No +154

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Best Bet: Under 89.5 Wins

Sean Zerillo: At 89.5 (+100), this was my favorite win total bet in the National League. At 88 (-110), I would probably only bet it for a half unit.

Technically, my projection likes the Phillies Under down to 87.5. Still, the projection market is much more closely aligned with their total — Davenport and PECOTA leaning Over 88.5.

Compared to their chief divisional rivals, the Phillies are worse on defense (25th in Defensive Runs Saved) and have far less organizational depth.

If everyone stays healthy — and Bryce Harper returns earlier than anticipated — they can surpass this number and threaten the division.

Average injury luck puts them Under, however. Their win total improved by three wins, but their composite projection declined by 1.3 wins.

The Phillies were my favorite longshot last season — their roster was always live if they found a way to make it to October. In terms of depth, they are not built as well to win in the regular season as they are laden with a star talent for the playoffs.

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2023 Mets World Series Odds, Division Futures, Best Bets, More

2023-mets-world-series-odds-division-futures-best-bets-mlb-2023

New York Mets

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +155
Pennant Odds +500
World Series Odds +900
Regular Season Wins 93.5
To Make Playoffs Yes -500 / No +360

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Best Bet: Pete Alonso To Win NL MVP (+1600)

Nick Shlain: Most Valuable Player awards in baseball typically go to the best player on the best team. Even if one of the best sluggers in the league is taking the mound every fifth day like Shohei Ohtani, a player having his best season on a playoff team can swoop in and win the award like Aaron Judge did in the American League last year. 

Alonso is similar to Judge in that he plays on one of the best teams in baseball in the spotlight of New York City. The Mets were a playoff team last year and despite the loss of All-Star closer Edwin Diaz they should be much improved this year. New York added Justin Verlander and Kodai Senga to a rotation that already had Max Scherzer. 

The Mets also start the year with David Peterson in the rotation after his impressive finish to last season and scoreless spring training appearances this year.

Alonso has hit at least 37 home runs in every season he’s played in the majors that wasn’t shortened by COVID-19. While my projections have Alonso for only 32 home runs this season, Vegas is more bullish on his home run potential and I’m inclined to agree. His over/under home run total at DraftKings is 37.5. 

He’s +900 to lead the league in home runs this year so at +1600 on FanDuel to win the Most Valuable Player there is certainly value in this number.

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2023 Yankees World Series Odds, Division Futures, Best Bets, More

2023-yankees-world-series-odds-division-futures-best-bets-more

New York Yankees

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +130
Pennant Odds +370
World Series Odds +850
Regular Season Wins 93.5
To Make Playoffs Yes -480 / No +350

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Best Bet: Yankees To Win AL East (+120)

Sean Zerillo: The Yankees underachieved by seven wins last season while ranking as the top defensive team in baseball. Just 13% of their defensive value was tied to the infield shift, so their defensive excellence should carry over into 2023, and adding an impact-free agent in Carlos Rodon raises their ceiling.

My projected win gaps between the Yankees and Blue Jays (5.8 wins) and Yankees and Rays (7.2 wins) split the difference between the aggressive projection on the Bombers from PECOTA (7.9 and 10.7 wins from Toronto and Tampa Bay) and the tighter AL East projection from ZIPS (3 and 3.3 wins differentials).

As a result, my projection would come in right around the PECOTA/ZIPS composites lines I provide for quick reference.

-150 seems a fairer price on the Yankees’ divisional odds than the market average, and I would set their World Series line closer to +650 rather than the best available price (+800 at FanDuel)

However, I prefer their AL Pennant Odds (+350 at BetMGM and Caesars) to a World Series ticket at this stage.

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2023 Tigers World Series Odds, Division Futures, Best Bets, More

2023-tigers-world-series-odds-division-futures-best-bets-mlb-2023

Detroit Tigers

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +3000
Pennant Odds +10000
World Series Odds +20000
Regular Season Wins 69.5
To Make Playoffs Yes +1800 / No -8000

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Best Bet: Under 70.5 Wins

Sean Zerillo: A second consensus Under bet — between my projection and the market projection — at 70 wins or higher. However, ZIPS (70.3 wins) would recommend betting the Over or passing at the current number. 

Detroit won 66 games in 2022 but overachieved by three wins, and the Tigers still finished 8.5 wins below their listed total.

While they ranked as an above-average defensive team (25 Defensive Runs Saved, 13th), the Tigers relied heavily upon the shift (+25 DRS); and like the White Sox, they struggled on the base paths (22nd).

And their two best young pitchers — Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize — are slated to miss most of the 2023 season. Skubal (2.9 WAR in 21 starts) was the Tigers’ most valuable player by a fairly significant margin in 2022.

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2023 Guardians World Series Odds, Division Futures, Best Bets, More

2023-guardians-world-series-odds-division-futures-best-bets-mlb-2023

Cleveland Guardians

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +115
Pennant Odds +1200
World Series Odds +2500
Regular Season Wins 86.5
To Make Playoffs Yes -150 / No +122

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Best Bet: Guardians To Win AL Pennant (+1400)

D.J. James: This is more of a play on the rest of the American League Central. While the news of Triston McKenzie starting the season in the injured list definitely knocks the Guardians down a peg, this team should be able to win the American League Central, and at that point, the playoffs are a crapshoot.

Hunter Gaddis is likely replacing McKenzie for the time being. Across 57 games in the minors, he held a 3.90 ERA, so he can hold the rotation slot with Konnor Pilkington possibly waiting in the wings.

This team still has a solid cast around the pitching staff. They have Trevor Stephan, James Karinchak, Enyel De Los Santos, Eli Morgan and Emmanuel Clase to close out games, so manager Terry Francona has plenty of options.

Spearheaded by Steven Kwan leading off and never striking out, the lineup is not bad, either. They added Mike Zunino and Josh Bell to the mix, who help bolster a lineup that lacked a bit of power. Amed Rosario and Andrés Giménez had career years, and José Ramírez can hit with the best of the league. If Oscar González can display some patience, he has a bright career ahead of him.

Top to bottom, this team has more depth than the talented, but oft-injured Chicago White Sox. The Minnesota Twins also have a questionable pitching staff, so betting on the team that can get through the division and be undervalued for the playoffs is a decent look.

If the Guardians can get to October with a healthy pitching staff, this team can hold most teams in check.

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2023 Reds World Series Odds, Division Futures, Best Bets, More

2023-reds-world-series-odds-division-futures-best-bets-mlb-2023

Cincinnati Reds

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +6000
Pennant Odds +10000
World Series Odds +25000
Regular Season Wins 65.5
To Make Playoffs Yes +1800 / No -8000

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Best Bet: Hunter Greene To Have Most Strikeouts (+4000)

Sean Zerillo: Last season I only placed one strikeout leader bet (Dylan Cease). I projected 11 pitchers for 200+ strikeouts in 2022, but only two were listed at +2000 or higher on the board.

The betting landscape for strikeout leaders has changed for 2023. I have 14 pitchers projected for 200+ strikeouts, but six are +2000 or higher on the odds board, and four of those pitchers are +3000 or higher.

Among the projected strikeout leaders, I prefer Nola, a workhorse with a low injury risk (13.4%) who ranks second behind Cole in total strikeouts since the start of the 2019 season. If the other projected leaders miss time — and all except for Corbin Burnes present a higher injury risk — Nola could grind his way ahead of the pack. He has a higher floor than anyone else.

My favorite speculative strikeout plays are Javier, Luis Castillo and Hunter Greene, each offering drastically superior odds compared to their projected contemporaries, all of whom improved in the second half of the 2022 season.

Typically, I try to limit my selections to about five or six bets per category. If I had gone deeper into the strikeout market, I’d look at Kevin Gausman and Brandon Woodruff. However, both pitchers saw a decreased workload per start last season relative to previous years.

Shohei Ohtani (who operates in a six-man rotation) will struggle to surpass 30 starts in an entirely healthy season, otherwise he would be easier to justify at his price point.

I love Gausman and Ohtani, but I would rather bet both in the Cy Young market than the strikeout leader market (and I already have). We’ll talk about both of them more in Part III of my MLB futures guide.

I don’t necessarily have a favorite bet in this category, but I am partial to Greene and Javier at their prices.

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2023 Red Sox World Series Odds, Division Futures, Best Bets, More

red-sox-betting-preview-world-series-division-futures-2023

Boston Red Sox

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +1800
Pennant Odds +3000
World Series Odds +6000
Regular Season Wins 78.5
To Make Playoffs Yes +310 / No -420

Odds via FanDuel. For updated MLB futures all season long, click here.

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Best Bet: Over 78.5 Wins

Tanner McGrath: The projections don’t like it, and the public doesn’t like it, but here’s my case for why the Red Sox can be a .500 ball club this year. 

The biggest issue with the 2022 Red Sox was an inability to close games. The Sox blew a preposterous 28 saves out of 65 opportunities, many of which came in divisional games, where the Red Sox went an abysmal 26-50. 

The most obvious bullpen addition is Kenley Jansen, who immediately steps in and solves the closer problem that Alex Cora was trying to patch together all season. But don’t overlook the additions of Chris Martin and Joely Rodriguez (although the latter may be hurt to start the year), as either is better than whatever the Sox were throwing out in the final frames last season. 

Meanwhile, the offense will certainly take a step back sans Xander Bogaerts. However, it’s often overlooked how good the Red Sox offense was last year, finishing the year with the league’s most doubles and top-10 in hard-hit and barrel rates. 

So, I don’t think it’ll be as bad as everyone makes it out to be. 

I’m also betting on the Red Sox upside.

First, Tristan Casas could turn into an elite MLB first baseman. He profiles as one, and ZiPS projects him with a 121 wRC+ this year.

Second, Brayan Bello has better stuff than 90% of big-league pitchers, as his fastball-changeup mix is elite at forcing whiffs and weak contact. He struggled to start the season but ended with a 2.59 ERA over his final six starts. He could carry that momentum into this season.

Finally, Justin Turner and Masataka Yoshida shouldn’t be overlooked. Both profile as three-win batters and could collectively compensate for Bogaerts’ absence, especially with both batting directly behind Rafael Devers. 

Ultimately, this squad may surprise people and the projections. I expect the Sox to win a few more games than last year and surge over the 78.5-win total, finishing right in the thick of the wildcard race. 

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2023 Valero Texas Open Sleeper Picks: Bet Nicolai Hojgaard, Akshay Bhatia & Ben Martin at TPC San Antonio

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The Valero Texas Open is the final chance for players to qualify for next week’s Masters. With just one of the top-20 players in the Official World Golf Rankings in the field this week (no. 17 Tyrrell Hatton), there’s plenty of opportunity for a long shot to cash outright and punch a ticket to Augusta National.

The last time we ventured into sleeper territory in this article, we hit on Taylor Moore (+7000) to win the Valspar Championship two weeks ago. Let’s see if we can stay hot and hit on another sleeper outright or the first-round leader this week.

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Valero Texas Open Sleeper Picks

Nicolai Hojgaard +5000 (FanDuel)

Nicolai Hojgaard has been playing great golf lately. Since December, he has played in six DP World Tour events and finished in the top 13 four times. He also made his first PGA TOUR start of the season last week at the Corales Puntacana Championship and finished in second place.

Unfortunately, Shotlink data has only been available for three of his seven starts since December, so there are some statistical unknowns. However, Hojgaard has tremendous upside as a 22-year-old who has shown he has what it takes to close out tournaments on big stages, with wins on the DP World Tour in 2021 and in 2022.

He also has tremendous length off the tee, which is always an advantage, though he’ll need to avoid costly misses with the driver at TPC San Antonio. There isn’t much penal rough on the course, but as Kevin Na proved when he made a 16 here in 2011, if players miss in the rocks and dense clumps of trees, it is a severe penalty.

Hojgaard has also shown a tendency to run hot and cold, so I like the chances of him continuing his impressive form. With few players presenting high upside this weekj, I have bet him at +5000 to win outright. Additionally, with him not finishing outside the top 38 in his past seven DP World Tour and PGA Tour starts, I like the value on him to finish 48 or better at -120 on bet365.

Pick: Nicolai Hojgaard Outright +5000

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Akshay Bhatia +8500 for First-Round Leader | +10000 Outright (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia is another somewhat unknown young golfer with upside who could win this week. Bhatia has made five of six cuts on the PGA Tour this year and has two top-seven finishes in his four Korn Ferry Tour starts this year.

Last week, he fired a second-round 63 at the Corales Puntacana Championship and finished in a tie for 24th. His best finish on TOUR this year came at a windy course in the Puerto Rico Open, where he finished second. That experience could be useful this week with windy conditions expected at TPC San Antonio.

The 21-year-old has shown he can go low with a round of 65 or better in four of his past five PGA Tour starts, but he needs to prove he can put it all together for four rounds. For this reason, I like the value better on him for first-round leader bets at +8500 at FanDuel, but I have also sprinkled him to win outright at +10000.

Pick: Akshay Bhatia First-Round Leader +8500

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Ben Martin +9000 (DraftKings)

Ben Martin is a steady golfer who could break through this week in San Antonio. He is coming in with tremendous form as he has top-13 finishes in three of his past five starts on Tour and hasn’t missed a cut in that span. He has gained strokes on approach in seven of his past eight tracked tournaments, which doesn’t include his T8 last week in Puntacana, where he likely gained strokes on approach. Overall, he ranks 20th this season on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach.

He also has shown the ability to spike with the putter and is already a PGA Tour winner with a win back in the 2014-2015 season at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. He is also a relatively accurate driver, and his Distance from Edge of the Fairway is among the top half of players on Tour, which will be relevant this week with severe penalties like rocks and clumps of trees beyond the relatively forgiving rough.

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MLB Home Runs Leader Prop Picks | Best Bets for Yordan Alvarez, Julio Rodriguez, More

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Here are my projected home run leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at Superbook, which generally has the best odds for the HR Leader market:

 

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In the past five seasons, the home run leader has averaged between .07 and .09 home runs per plate appearance.

Therefore, I would largely discount the players projected below .05 home runs plate appearance. And as a result, I cut my list to players projected to hit 29 home runs or more. Starting at 28 home runs, you get into players (Ronald Acuna Jr., Willy Adames, Corey Seager) who I slot at .04 home runs per plate appearance.

Some bats in the .05 range (including Eugenio Suarez, Anthony Santander, Max Muncy, Salvador Perez, etc.) are still projected for 25+ round-trippers, but aside from Perez, I can’t justify betting any of them based on the rate stat.

I only show two players — Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez — in the top tier (.07 home runs per PA). Like RBI leader, Alvarez is my favorite bet for HR leader, too; you can bet him down to +1000. And you’ll see him pop up in my Awards piece too.

Among the players in the .06 tier, Byron Buxton and Giancarlo Stanton are the obvious injury candidates with massive upside

I tried to bet Buxton in several of these categories (HR Leader, Runs Leader, MVP) last season, and the Twins will try to use him at DH as often as possible this year. He has averaged .073 HR per PA over the past two seasons — enough to qualify for consideration as the category leader. Still, he’s also one of the most injury-prone stars in the game, and he gets hurt running the bases far too often to justify his DH usage as a potential difference-maker in playing an entire season.

I could say similar things about Stanton, but at least he has played in 76% of his team’s games over the past two seasons. Unfortunately, his skills may be eroding (.062 HR per PA), but that primarily comes down to contact. Stanton continues to post the highest exit velocity marks in the game and could legitimately hit .200 with 50 home runs and lead the league with a bit of variance.

Olson is an easy bet as a mispricing relative to his projected peers, and a player I expect to take a big step forward in his second year in Atlanta.

Zerillo: Best Bets For MLB Stat LeadersRead now

Julio Rodriguez and Juan Soto are far more speculative bets. Each year there are players in the +5000 range who catch my eye (Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in 2020) whose projections don’t necessarily align with their immense talent and upside.

Soto won the 2022 Home Run Derby and improved his flyball rate by eight percent last season. He may feel freer to pull the ball without the shift, and I still expect him to evolve at some point into more of a late-career Barry Bonds type, selling out for power unless he can force pitchers to walk him. Soto is likely to grow into his peak game power and post a 40+ home run season in his mid-20s if he decides to swing just a bit more, and I’m willing to speculate at +5000 until it happens.

Rodriguez ranked in the 99th percentile for max exit velocity in his rookie season, the most immediate predictor of future power. J-Rod may become the fifth member of the 40-40 club (Jose Canseco, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Alfonso Soriano) sometime in the next few seasons. Rodriguez and Acuna (41 HR, 37 SB in 2019) are the likeliest candidates among current players. Yet Rodriguez is closer to +1200 in the steals market. His power is underrated compared to his speed — he is elite in both areas.

The last player I want to mention is Cal Raleigh, who is as high as 200-1 at some books, and as low as +4000 at Superbook, which generally has the best available odds in the HR leader market across the board.

Anytime a player is much shorter at the Superbook for HR leader than they are anywhere else, it will grab my attention. I projected Raleigh for 23 home runs (.05 per PA), but it’s worth noting that he was injured last season during a strong rookie campaign (and still averaged .065 HR/PA) and may garner plate appearances as a DH this year.

If I could add two more HR leader bets, I would have included Rafael Devers and Kyle Tucker, given the odds; but I try not to go more than six deep in any category.

Most Home Runs Bets

  • Yordan Alvarez (+1400, 0.25u) at Superbook
  • Julio Rodriguez (+5000, 0.05u) at Superbook
  • Matt Olson (+6000, 0.05u) at Superbook
  • Cal Raleigh (+20000, 0.02u) at Caesars
  • Juan Soto (+5000, 0.05u) at Superbook
  • Giancarlo Stanton (+4000, 0.05u) at Superbook

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MLB Most Stolen Bases Prop Picks | Best Bets for Jazz Chisholm, Jake McCarthy, More

mlb-most-stolen-bases-prop-picks-best-bets-jazz-chisholm-jake-mccarthy-2023

Here are my projected stolen base, or SB leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at FanDuel:

 

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In the past five seasons, the stolen bases leader has averaged between .063 and 0.1 steals per plate appearance.

Therefore, I would largely discount players projected below 0.05 steals per plate appearance. And as a result, I removed the following players (all projected between 20-27 steals) from the leaderboard: Julio Rodriguez, Jose Ramirez, Andres Gimenez, Michael Harris, Kyle Tucker, Nico Hoerner, Corbin Carroll, Whit Merrifield, Tim Anderson, Harrison Bader, Oneil Cruz, Shohei Ohtani, Adolis Garcia, and Marcus Semien.

Perhaps leaving Rodriguez off is in error (since I expect a 40-40 season from him at some point) but I do have a theory — Julio’s power is going to become so potent (more on that later) that he may not be on first base often enough to steal 30+ bags.

Bubba Thompson is my favorite bet in the steals market. He’s projected to bat ninth and play center field for Texas on Opening Day. Between Triple-A and the majors, Thompson stole 67 bags on 70 attempts and averaged .099 steals per MLB plate appearance. Thompson will rank among the league leaders with full playing time.

I’m not as keen on Dylan Moore (.082 steals per PA in 2022) since he is injured to begin the season, but the playing time upside is similar to Thompson, and the price is better.

Zerillo: Best Bets For MLB Stat LeadersRead now

Berti — the 2022 steals leader — ranks as highly as anyone on an efficiency basis; I’m just skeptical that he’ll receive 400 plate appearances again.

A partial hedge to Berti is a bet on his teammate, Jazz Chisholm, staying healthy. Derek Carty’s “Bat X” projections like Chisholm for 36 steals this season, which would rank third in baseball. Chisholm has only averaged .045 steals per PA for his MLB career, but he’s one of the fastest regulars in the game and stands to benefit from the new ruleset as much as anyone.

I’ll finalize this category with a bet on Jake McCarthy, whose seen his steals per PA average quickly settle at .061 at the MLB level, which is at the lower end of where season-long leaders have finished. McCarthy ranks in the 99th percentile for sprint speed and projects as Arizona’s Opening Day No. 3 hitter. He’s a considerably better base stealer than Corbin Carroll and potentially Arizona’s best fantasy baseball asset.

Most Stolen Bases Bets

  • Jon Berti (+2000, 0.1u) at DraftKings
  • Jazz Chisholm (+2400, 0.1u) at FanDuel
  • Jake McCarthy (+2400, 0.1u) at FanDuel
  • Dylan Moore (+8000, 0.1u) at FanDuel
  • Bubba Thompson (+5000, 0.1u) at bet365

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MLB Most RBIs Prop Picks | Best Bets for Yordan Alvarez, Jose Ramirez, More

mlb-most-rbis-prop-picks-best-bets-yordan-alvarez-jose-ramirez-2023

Here are my projected RBI leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at Caesars:

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The RBI leader has averaged between 0.18 and 0.22 RBIs per plate appearance in the past five seasons.

Therefore, I would largely discount players projected below 0.16 RBIs per plate appearance. And as a result, I removed the following players (all projected between 84-93 RBIs) from the leaderboard: Freddie Freeman, Nolan Arenado, Juan Soto, Bo Bichette, Anthony Santander, Francisco Lindor, Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Alex Bregman, Teoscar Hernandez and Christian Walker.

Yordan Alvarez is the only player projected for 0.17 RBI per plate appearance, and he’s my favorite bet in this category.

I have to bet the players projected on either side of him at superior numbers too, although Jose Ramirez, Matt Olson and Manny Machado don’t have much to gain from a playing time standpoint.

Zerillo: Best Bets For MLB Stat LeadersRead now

Conversely, Giancarlo Stanton is grossly mispriced compared to players in the 0.16 RBI per plate appearance tier. If Stanton manages to stay healthy for an entire season, it would be his first since 2018. But it would also come with massive counting stat upside, considering he’s only projected to play around 125 games.

And I will add a bet on Kyle Schwarber, with him moving behind Trea Turner in the Phillies order into a more prominent RBI spot, instead of leading off like much of last season.

Most Runs Batted In Bets

  • Yordan Alvarez (+1000, 0.2u) at BetMGM
  • Jose Ramirez (+2000, 0.1u) at BetMGM
  • Manny Machado (+2500, 0.1u) at BetMGM
  • Matt Olson (+1600, 0.1u) at DraftKings
  • Kyle Schwarber (+4000, 0.05u) at Caesars
  • Giancarlo Stanton (+5000, 0.05u) at BetMGM

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MLB Most Runs Scored Prop Picks | Best Bets for Mookie Betts, Michael Harris II, More

mlb-most-runs-scored-prop-picks-best-bets-mookie-betts-michael-harris-ii-2023

Here are my projected runs scored leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at Caesars:

 

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The runs scored leader has averaged between 0.175 and 0.21 runs per plate appearance in the past five seasons.

Therefore, I would largely discount players listed in the lowest projection tier (0.14 runs per plate appearance). And as a result, I removed the following players (all projected between 89-94 runs scored) from the leaderboard: Paul Goldschmidt, Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien, Matt Olson, Manny Machado, Rafael Devers, Kyle Tucker and Austin Riley.

Mookie Betts should be a co-favorite, and he’s my favorite bet in this category at +900 or better. 

Still, I don’t mind the odds on his teammate, Freddie Freeman, either. Freeman ranks second in baseball in runs scored (495) since 2018. about 40 runs ahead of third place. Betts ranks first by a wide margin (521) over Freeman.

Zerillo: Best Bets For MLB Stat LeadersRead now

The odds for Julio Rodriguez have dropped since I bet him (at +2000); his current pricing (+1400) is more appropriate, but I’m inclined to bet J-Rod in any category where he has a realistic chance of winning. Runs scored is probably the likeliest considering his lineup spot.

Yordan Alvarez — who is likely priced appropriately given his projection — and Michael Harris II — who moved down from +7500 since I bet him — are my favorite longshots in this category.

Alvarez may threaten a quadruple or quintuple crown — for at least one season — based on his career trajectory.

Harris would move to the top spot in Atlanta’s lineup — in the event of a Ronald Acuna Jr. injury — and if he were the expected Opening Day leadoff hitter for the Braves instead of a middle-of-the-order bat, his runs-scored projection would be closer to 100 than 90.

Most Runs Scored Bets

  • Mookie Betts (+1100, 0.15u) at Caesars
  • Freddie Freeman (+1800, 0.1u) at Caesars
  • Julio Rodriguez (+1400, 0.1u) at Caesars
  • Michael Harris (+6000, 0.1u) at Caesars
  • Yordan Alvarez (+2500, 0.1u) at Caesars

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MLB Most Hits Prop Picks | Best Bets for Luis Arraez, Bo Bichette, More

mlb-most-hits-prop-picks-best-bets-luis-arraez-bo-bichette-2023

Here are my projected total hits leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at DraftKings:

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In the past five seasons, the hits leader finished with between 0.27 and 0.31 hits per plate appearance.

Note that this is a curated leaderboard — I left off the following players, all of whom projected for more than 150 hits but at 0.25 hits per plate appearance or fewer: Rafael Devers, Alec Bohn, Steven Kwan, Julio Rodriguez, Corey Seager, Austin Riley, Manny Machado, Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Ramirez, Alec Bohm, Bobby Witt Jr., Bryan Reynolds, Aaron Judge, Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Marcus Semien, Jose Abreu, Nolan Arenado and Pete Alonso.

Last season, I found Luis Arraez at long odds thanks to the hits per plate appearance qualifier (few players break the 0.27 hits per PA tier).

And I’ll run Arraez back as my favorite hits leader bet for 2023. He only played in 144 games last season — both because he wasn’t in the starting lineup to begin the year and also because he occasionally sat against lefties. The Marlins will attempt to play Arraez as often as possible and also hit him out of the leadoff spot (he occasionally hit third last season).

The projections are selling him short on playing time (around 138 games) and a 200-hit season is within reach, especially without the shift, because he doesn’t strikeout (league-low 7.1%) and owns an average walk rate.

Zerillo: Best Bets For MLB Stat LeadersRead now

Like Arraez, longshots Jeff McNeil, Nico Hoerner or Luis Robert Jr. could cash if they exceed playing time projections (roughly 130-140 games each). Of the three, I prefer Hoerner, who put up a quiet four-win season as he continues to improve his bat-to-ball skills (fifth among qualified hitters in strikeout rate).

McNeil has better contact skills than Hoerner but hits too low in the lineup (5th), and the Mets have too much offensive depth not to occasionally platoon him against lefties.

I bet Bo Bichette at +1200 before his line moved, and I wouldn’t play him below +1000. However, you can find matching prices for my other bets in this category.

Amed Rosario finished fifth in hits last season (180) and should continue to improve. He’s a lock for everyday playing time and a top-two lineup spot, and I much prefer him to his teammates Kwan and Ramirez (both at 0.25 hits per PA) in the same category, given the production filter.

Most Hits Bets

  • Luis Arraez (+2200, 0.15u) at bet365
  • Bo Bichette (+1000, 0.1u) at BetMGM
  • Nico Hoerner (+6000, 0.05u) at DraftKings
  • Jeff McNeil (+4000, 0.1u) at Caesars
  • Luis Robert (+6600, 0.05u) at bet365
  • Amed Rosario (+2500, 0.1u) at bet365

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MLB Saves Leaders Prop Picks | Best Bets for Clay Holmes, Devin Williams, More

mlb-saves-leaders-prop-picks-best-bets-clay-holmes-devin-williams-2023

Here are my projected saves leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at bet365:

 

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We might find some value in the saves market with the projected leader and favorite Edwin Diaz out for the season.

Similar to the pitcher wins market, I’m merely looking for players that are mispriced relative to their projection bucket, and three closers on potentially playoff-bound teams — Devin Williams, Clay Holmes, and Pete Fairbanks — seem mispriced. 

Unfortunately, the odds for all three pitchers have decreased since I bet them (at +2000, +3300, and +8000, respectively). Still, based on their projections alone, they should be lined closer to +1500, +2000, and +5000, respectively — so there is still room to bet each.

While Williams is locked into a closer role, he’s on the team projected for the fewest wins of the three.

Holmes is the head of a committee in the Bronx — since Aaron Boone won’t always save his best reliever for the ninth inning. Still, I have the Yankees projected as the best team in the American League, and if Holmes does emerge as the full-time closer (2.41 xERA in 2022), he’ll offer sensational value.

Zerillo: Best Bets For MLB Stat LeadersRead now

Fairbanks was my favorite bet a few weeks ago, but his velocity is down in spring training. Like Holmes, he is the head of a committee in Tampa Bay and the Rays don’t necessarily save their closer for the final three outs.

Fairbanks was ridiculous in 24 innings last season (1.03 xERA) and arguably the best pitcher in baseball after returning from injury. His price is attractive considering his elite skillset. Still, he’s never pitched more than 42 innings in an entire season — and may already be hurt again. Otherwise, I would have bet more at these odds.

Most Saves Bets

  • Pete Fairbanks (+6600, 0.1u) at bet365
  • Clay Holmes (+2800, 0.1u) at bet365
  • Devin Williams (+1800, 0.1u) at PointsBet

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MLB Strikeouts Leader Prop Picks | Best Bets for Jacob deGrom, Hunter Greene, More

mlb-strikeouts-leader-prop-picks-best-bets-jacob-degrom-hunter-greene-2023

Here are my projected pitching strikeout leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at BetMGM:

 

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Last season I only placed one strikeout leader bet (Dylan Cease). I projected 11 pitchers for 200+ strikeouts in 2022, but only two were listed at +2000 or higher on the board.

The betting landscape for strikeout leaders has changed for 2023. I have 14 pitchers projected for 200+ strikeouts, but six are +2000 or higher on the odds board, and four of those pitchers are +3000 or higher.

I included a more profound list in the graphic this season because it’s interesting to show how Jacob deGrom and Sandy Alcantara can arrive at a similar projection. At the same time, deGrom should average nearly two additional strikeouts per projected start.

If deGrom exceeds playing time projections (24 starts), he could easily lead the league. And even though the price isn’t super enticing at +1200, I would rather play deGrom than Cole at half the number.

Conversely, I wouldn’t go near Carlos Rodon at this point, especially at his price. Rodon got injured since I bet him in the preseason, but his number is now grossly mispriced considering he will miss the first month of the season and seemingly has no path to leading any stat category. Awards consideration isn’t out of the question, however.

Zerillo: Best Bets For MLB Stat LeadersRead now

Among the projected strikeout leaders, I prefer Nola, a workhorse with a low injury risk (13.4%) who ranks second behind Cole in total strikeouts since the start of the 2019 season. If the other projected leaders miss time — and all except for Corbin Burnes present a higher injury risk — Nola could grind his way ahead of the pack. He has a higher floor than anyone else.

My favorite speculative strikeout plays are Javier, Luis Castillo and Hunter Greene, each offering drastically superior odds compared to their projected contemporaries, all of whom improved in the second half of the 2022 season.

Typically, I try to limit my selections to about five or six bets per category. If I had gone deeper into the strikeout market, I’d look at Kevin Gausman and Brandon Woodruff. However, both pitchers saw a decreased workload per start last season relative to previous years.

There is a +7000 on Gausman at FanDuel. You could do worse at those odds.

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Shohei Ohtani (who operates in a six-man rotation) will struggle to surpass 30 starts in an entirely healthy season, otherwise he would be easier to justify at his price point.

I love Gausman and Ohtani, but I would rather bet both in the Cy Young market than the strikeout leader market (and I already have). We’ll talk about both of them more in Part III of my MLB futures guide.

I don’t necessarily have a favorite bet in this category, but I am partial to Greene and Javier at their prices.

Most Strikeouts Bets

  • Luis Castillo (+4000, 0.05u) at Caesars
  • Jacob deGrom (+1200, 0.1u) at BetMGM
  • Hunter Greene (+4000, 0.1u) at FanDuel
  • Cristian Javier (+3500, 0.1u) at BetMGM
  • Aaron Nola (+1500, 0.1u) at FanDuel

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MLB Wins Leader Prop Picks | Best Bets for Shane Bieber, Max Fried, More

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Here are my projected pitching wins leaders for the 2023 season, alongside their listed odds at Superbook — which typically has the best available odds for any player in this market:

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In any stat leader market, I’m looking to identify players near the top of the projection leaderboard who aren’t correctly bucketed — on the odds board — relative to their projection peers.

For example, Max Fried (+2500) immediately stands out on the list above. I have him tied for the league lead with Gerrit Cole and project Fried for the most starts on the team with my highest projected win total.

Fried is my favorite bet in the wins market — and if you’re searching for one prop in each category, I’ll highlight my favorites.

The 14-win tier, with Shane Bieber, Framber Valdez, and Julio Urias, is either worth playing across the board or leaving alone entirely. Valdez moved from +2500 to +2000 since I bet him, but I would still play him there.

All four starters that I have mentioned rank low (each less than 12%) in Eno Sarris’s injury probability model, in addition to ranking highly in my wins projections. The big difference between betting on Cole and Valdez at similar odds is injury risk (projected 70% for Cole).

Zerillo: Best Bets For MLB Stat LeadersRead now

In the 13-win tier, Logan Webb (100-1) is the apparent outlier and another safe bet for volume (11% injury probability). As you’ll see in my awards article, I prefer Webb as a Cy Young bet rather than relying on him to approach 20 wins — or roughly 25% of his team’s overall projection.

In the pitcher wins the market, I’m looking to target starters on teams with high projected win totals and elite bullpens; Webb has neither in his favor.

I could apply similar reasoning to Aaron Nola (50-1). I can’t justify betting on a player to lead the league in wins when his own team’s Win Total Under is one of my favorite preseason wagers. Otherwise, the price is right. Either way, you’ll see Nola in my awards piece again.

The only player I’ll sprinkle from the 13-wins tier is Cristian Javier — Houston’s projected No. 2 starter — who should see a substantial volume increase this season and will repeatedly pop up in my future selections.

Most Wins Bets

    • Shane Bieber (+2500, 0.1u) at Superbook
    • Max Fried (+2500, 0.15u) at Superbook
    • Cristian Javier (+3000, 0.1u) at Superbook
    • Julio Urias (+2500, 0.1u) at Superbook
    • Framber Valdez (+2000, 0.1u) at Superbook

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AL MVP Odds, Picks | Best Bets for Yordan Alvarez, Julio Rodriguez, More

al-mvp-odds-picks-best-bets-yordan-alvarez-julio-rodriguez-2023

Before breaking down the potential list of MVP candidates for 2023, let’s talk about what matters and what does not matter to MVP voters.

Important

  • Position: In the past two decades, two pure pitchers (Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander) have won MVP trophies (three in 33 years). Outfielders and corner infielders have won more than 75% of the time, including 14 of the 16 most recent recipients (second baseman Jose Altuve and DH/pitcher Shohei Ohtani are the only exceptions).
  • OPS Ranking: Counts twice as much as a player’s ranking in batting average, RBI, home runs, stolen bases or team winning percentage. Every (offensive) MVP winner since 2001 except for Ichiro Suzuki has had an OPS greater than .850.
  • WAR: Twenty-four of the past 26 MVP winners (92%) ranked in the top three in WAR in their respective leagues. Seventeen winners (65%) finished as the league leader in WAR.

Irrelevant

  • Making History: There have been four “40-40” seasons in MLB history, and 23 “30-30” seasons in MLB history. Just three of those 27 (11.1%) players (Jose Canseco in 1988, Jimmy Rollins in 2007, and Mookie Betts in 2018) won the MVP award. Those 27 players finished 9.7, on average, in MVP voting. Similarly, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. likely wouldn’t have won the MVP last season, even if he had captured the Triple Crown.
  • Making the Playoffs: Eleven of the past 46 MVP winners (24%) failed to make the postseason. Perhaps more importantly, none of the three finalists in either league made the postseason in 2022, the most dramatic shift in the history of MVP voting. While five of the six MVP finalists made the playoffs in 2023, it’s become almost irrelevant to discussing which player is having the best season.

Inconclusive

  • Teammates Competing for Votes: Since 2000, the closest teammate in MVP voting, relative to the actual MVP winners, ranked around 10th, on average. One pair of teammates finished one-two (Jeff Kent and Barry Bonds, 2001). Four additional pairs finished in the top three of the voting, including Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado in 2022. Four MVP winners finished with multiple teammates in the Top 10. Similarly, there are four instances where multiple teammates finished in the Top 10 without winning the award.

Here are my projected WAR leaders in each league for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at FanDuel:

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American League

Ohtani is the obvious favorite, and toward the end of last season, I suspected he would be closer to even money for AL MVP heading into 2023.

Mike Trout closed between +110 and +130 during the height of his AL reign. Ohtani still received first-place votes for MVP last season, even though Aaron Judge posted the best individual season for a position player since Barry Bonds retired.

Assuming Ohtani stays healthy, someone else must post a historic offensive season to get into the conversation. If you want to fire a single bullet at an Ohtani MVP future (+225 at Superbook), I won’t fault you; he is likely a once-in-a-lifetime type of talent and in the midst of his prime.

That’s not how I bet baseball futures, though. I would prefer to structure a portfolio in each category at reduced risk for longer odds. A two or three-week IL stint is enough to derail any season-long player future.

Sorting by average production as a component of playing time, Trout, Yordan Alvarez, Julio Rodriguez, Jose Ramirez and Corey Seager are the only players who approach Judge in terms of average production. In terms of value, Seager is likely the best bet in the AL.

Considering any player expected to average below 0.2 WAR per 25 PA as a potential MVP candidate is difficult.

I bet Judge last year (0.25u at +2500) among a group of six AL hitters. At the time, he ranked third in my average WAR filter (0.24 per 25 PA); health was the only question.

I could make a similar case for Alvarez (0.25 WAR per 25 PA), who drastically underachieved last season (.427 wOBA,467 xwOBA) and may be unstoppable without the shift. I have multiple stat leader bets on Alvarez, and the MVP wager is the final piece of the puzzle. However, I only risked 0.75 units across all of his wagers, so if Alvarez does miss time, it has almost zero impact on my overall futures bottom line. And if he wins the Triple Crown, we stand to profit around 10 units.

Zerillo’s Best Bets for MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the YearRead now

No hitter has been harmed by the shift in recent years as much as Seager, whose long odds are far too enticing to pass up relative to his projection bucket.

I was more interested in Ramirez over the past couple of years at around +2500, as opposed to his current price (+1500).

And the odds for Rodriguez (+1000 at Superbook) are likely too short given his projections, but I firmly believe J-Rod is bound for multiple MVP awards throughout his career, and I’ll bet him blindly every year in this price range.

I’ll speculate on two more young stars — and potential Hall of Fame talents — to outplay their projections: Wander Franco and Adley Rutschman.

If you liked Franco at +2200 last season (as I did), you should bet him at double the price after an injury-shortened sophomore campaign. Franco has insanely good plate discipline for a player his age and an elite hit tool for a shortstop.

Rutschman posted a 5.3-win season in 113 games as a rookie and has an extremely high floor as one of the top defensive catchers in the game. His bat making such an immediate impact (133 wRC+, 49 extra-base hits) was the biggest surprise. MVP-type catchers don’t come around often (Joe Mauer in 2009, Buster Posey in 2012), but Rutschman may be an exception.

MVP Bets

  • AL: Yordan Alvarez (+1400, 0.2u) at Superbook
  • AL: Julio Rodriguez (+1000, 0.15u) at Superbook
  • AL: Wander Franco (+4000, 0.1u) at Superbook
  • AL: Adley Rutschman: (+5000, 0.05u) at Superbook
  • AL: Corey Seager (+5000, 0.05u) at bet365

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NL MVP Odds, Picks | Best Bets for Juan Soto, Mookie Betts, Ronald Acuna Jr, More

nl-mvp-odds-picks-best-bets-juan-soto-mookie-betts-ronald-acuna-jr-2023

Before breaking down the potential list of MVP candidates for 2023, let’s talk about what matters and what does not matter to MVP voters.

Important

  • Position: In the past two decades, two pure pitchers (Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander) have won MVP trophies (three in 33 years). Outfielders and corner infielders have won more than 75% of the time, including 14 of the 16 most recent recipients (second baseman Jose Altuve and DH/pitcher Shohei Ohtani are the only exceptions).
  • OPS Ranking: Counts twice as much as a player’s ranking in batting average, RBI, home runs, stolen bases or team winning percentage. Every (offensive) MVP winner since 2001 except for Ichiro Suzuki has had an OPS greater than .850.
  • WAR: Twenty-four of the past 26 MVP winners (92%) ranked in the top three in WAR in their respective leagues. Seventeen winners (65%) finished as the league leader in WAR.

Irrelevant

  • Making History: There have been four “40-40” seasons in MLB history, and 23 “30-30” seasons in MLB history. Just three of those 27 (11.1%) players (Jose Canseco in 1988, Jimmy Rollins in 2007, and Mookie Betts in 2018) won the MVP award. Those 27 players finished 9.7, on average, in MVP voting. Similarly, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. likely wouldn’t have won the MVP last season, even if he had captured the Triple Crown.
  • Making the Playoffs: Eleven of the past 46 MVP winners (24%) failed to make the postseason. Perhaps more importantly, none of the three finalists in either league made the postseason in 2022, the most dramatic shift in the history of MVP voting. While five of the six MVP finalists made the playoffs in 2023, it’s become almost irrelevant to discussing which player is having the best season.

Inconclusive

  • Teammates Competing for Votes: Since 2000, the closest teammate in MVP voting, relative to the actual MVP winners, ranked around 10th, on average. One pair of teammates finished one-two (Jeff Kent and Barry Bonds, 2001). Four additional pairs finished in the top three of the voting, including Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado in 2022. Four MVP winners finished with multiple teammates in the Top 10. Similarly, there are four instances where multiple teammates finished in the Top 10 without winning the award.

Here are my projected WAR leaders in each league for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at FanDuel:

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National League

I bet on Juan Soto to win the NL MVP before the pandemic-shortened 2020 season (at +1200), and before the 2021 season, I bet him at +850 and said that I would keep betting on Soto until he wins an MVP award.

Ultimately, I lied. Soto’s odds dropped to +300 before last season, and I never pulled the trigger, but I’m back in for 2023 at a far more reasonable price point.

Aside from his teammate, Fernando Tatis Jr. — who is suspended for 20 games to start the season and, in my opinion, the worst player to bet in any market for 2023, and Dodgers catcher Will Smith — Soto laps the NL field in terms of production as a component of playing time.

Soto to win NL MVP is my favorite player awards bet; you can play him down to +400.

Overall, the NL MVP field is significantly weaker than the AL field. I could argue that seven of the best eight players in baseball all reside in the American League.

Aside from Soto, the most threatening competition comes from Ronald Acuna Jr. and Mookie Betts (both in the 0.21 tier) and Trea Turner (0.20), who is in a prime position to garner MVP consideration on the heels of his WBC publicity, with significant injuries to Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins giving him further opportunity to grow his star.

Zerillo’s Best Bets for MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the YearRead now

Generally, I prefer my future bets to correlate to one another, and I have a difficult time betting a Phillies player to win MVP, in contraction to my win total under. Still, you can make a decent case for Turner at +1200.

Smith caught my attention, too, given his price point. Smith has averaged 4.25 WAR over the past two seasons, but The Bat X projection calls for 5.7 WAR (with a 133 wRC+) in 2023, and if Smith cracks 30+ home runs, he’ll undoubtedly enter the conversation on a new-look Dodgers squad.

Like Soto, I’ll gladly bet Acuna in this price range every year until he secures some hardware.

Aside from the players I listed and Freddie Freeman, I would be relatively surprised by any other NL MVP; there is a reasonably significant drop-off beyond that group (all >0.20 WAR per 25 PA) in average production.

MVP Bets

  • NL: Juan Soto (+550, 0.5u) at FanDuel
  • NL: Mookie Betts (+950, 0.1u) at FanDuel
  • NL: Ronald Acuna Jr. (+1000, 0.1u) at FanDuel
  • NL: Will Smith (+15000, 0.01u) at FanDuel

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NL Cy Young Odds, Picks | Best Bets for Aaron Nola, Spencer Strider, More

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Historically, four basic statistics correlate most strongly to Cy Young winners: Wins, ERA, strikeouts and WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched).

However, there has been a clear upwards trend in recent seasons regarding WAR and Cy Young winners — which mirrors the trend between WAR and MVPs.

Until 2003, the Cy Young winner finished at least 1 WAR behind the pitching WAR leader (for that league) 48% of the time. Since 2004, that difference has only occurred six times (19%), a decrease of 29%.

Twelve of the past 14 Cy Young winners have finished in the top three in their respective leagues in pitching WAR — the only exceptions being Blake Snell (2018) and Robbie Ray (2021).

Here are my projected pitching WAR leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at FanDuel:

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National League

Some interesting pitchers who missed the cut include Freddy Peralta (0.17) and Dustin May (0.17), both of whom offer All-Star upside, but neither of whom I expect to receive a Cy Young-caliber workload in 2023.

All but one of my NL Cy Young bets have decreased in price since I bet them a month ago.

Although I’m down on the Phillies’ overall depth, they still have two of the best pitchers in the National League. Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler are seemingly underpriced relative to their WAR rankings as clear top-five starters in the NL.

Nola is my preferred bet for NL Cy Young. He offers a higher WAR projection and less injury risk than his teammate. However, his odds have dropped from +2000 to +1200 since I bet him. I would reduce my risk at that price.

Based on average production, Spencer Strider is the most efficient starter in the NL. I’ll bet his Cy Young future defensively — Strider could run away with the award if he takes the ball six times per month.

The longshots who caught my attention are Reds teammates Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, who are likely underrated, given their detrimental home ballpark and deteriorating organization.

Both pitchers put things together towards the end of last season (1.02 ERA, 2.63 xFIP for Greene; 2.48 ERA, 2.71 xFIP for Lodolo in their final six starts each), and one or both seem poised for ascension towards awards contention.

They have also dropped from +8000 and +7500 in the past month.

Zerillo’s Best Bets for MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the YearRead now

Lastly, I also bet on Logan Webb, whose average production (0.18) pales compared to his teammate Alex Cobb (0.20); and falls below my benchmark.

I’ve watched a lot of Webb’s starts over the past two seasons, and I’m convinced he’s better than his underlying metrics indicate. He prevents extra-base hits, generates a ton of groundballs (58.6% career) to kill rallies, and rarely allows the backbreaking three-run homer (0.60 HR/9). Webb is tough to barrel up (5.5%), and his skill set may be better suited to a playing environment with an increased number of balls in play.

That said, +3000 is far less enticing than the +4000 I locked in.

I’ve been fortunate with Cy Young bet, managing to hit Sandy Alcantara (+2500) last season and both Shane Bieber (+1600) and Trevor Bauer (+5000) during the shortened 2020 season.

We’ve presumably lost about a quarter of a unit on Cy Young bets to injuries before the 2023 season has started, but also still have roughly 0.9 units allocated across 10 pitchers who are currently healthy.

Rather than betting in a market that has already tightened relative to my reason projections, I would look to add awards bets during the season

Cy Young Bets

  • NL: Aaron Nola (+1300, 0.1u) at FanDuel
  • NL Zack Wheeler (+1800, 0.1u) at FanDuel
  • NL: Hunter Greene (+6000, 0.05u) at Superbook
  • NL: Nick Lodolo (+4000, 0.05u) at FanDuel
  • NL: Spencer Strider (+1000, 0.1u) at Superbook
  • NL: Logan Webb (+3000, 0.05u) at FanDuel

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AL Cy Young Odds, Picks | Best Bets for Shohei Ohtani, Kevin Gausman, More

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Historically, four basic statistics correlate most strongly to Cy Young winners: Wins, ERA, strikeouts and WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched).

However, there has been a clear upwards trend in recent seasons regarding WAR and Cy Young winners — which mirrors the trend between WAR and MVPs.

Until 2003, the Cy Young winner finished at least 1 WAR behind the pitching WAR leader (for that league) 48% of the time. Since 2004, that difference has only occurred six times (19%), a decrease of 29%.

Twelve of the past 14 Cy Young winners have finished in the top three in their respective leagues in pitching WAR — the only exceptions being Blake Snell (2018) and Robbie Ray (2021).

Here are my projected pitching WAR leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at FanDuel:

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American League

AL Cy Young is the most wide-open race of all the awards in 2023, and I Initially spread across eight pitchers before spring training, three of whom (Carlos Rodon, Luis Severino and Triston McKenzie) are already injured. I would avoid all three pitchers at this point.

From a projections standpoint, my favorite bet is Shohei Ohtani, who only ranks behind Jacob deGrom in average WAR contributions among all pitchers in baseball.

Since he’s part of a six-man rotation, Ohtani won’t generate more than 29 starts or 175 innings pitched – and any missed starts would cut into his win probability more significantly than it would for other pitchers – but Ohtani was a top-three starter last season (2.65 xERA) with increased emphasis on his breaking stuff. And given deGrom’s injury concerns, Ohtani has a serious case for favoritism. And I much prefer his Cy Young odds to his MVP odds.

From a scouting standpoint, my favorite bet is Cristian Javier, who was arguably a better pitcher (2.43 xERA) than Cy Young winner Justin Verlander (2.66 xERA) last season, albeit in fewer innings and including relief stints.

From June 13th onward, Javier ranked second in strikeout rate and fourth in K-BB% among 58 qualified starters — and then he dominated in the postseason, too (12 2/3 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 5 BB, 16 K). Only his fastball and slider have proven to be above-average offerings; if Javier finds a third pitch (he throws a curveball or changeup around 12% of the time combined), he might turn into the best starter in the game.

Zerillo’s Best Bets for MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the YearRead now

I divide pitcher WAR by 10 IP because it presents a similar scale to position player WAR divided by 25 PA, and I generally look to select pitchers above 0.20 WAR per 10 IP as Cy Young candidates.

From the remaining AL pitchers, Kevin Gausman (0.22) and George Kirby (0.20) fill out my card. Gausman finished second behind Verlander in AL pitching WAR last season and projects in the top six by both average and overall production for 2023; Gausman has a very high floor.

Kirby offers substantial upside relative to his projected innings pitched (150). He’s very efficient, and there’s a universe where he logs closer to 190 innings this season. A four-win season would put Kirby in the conversation at long odds.

Cy Young Bets

  • AL: Shohei Ohtani (+1200, 0.15u) at Caesars
  • AL: Cristian Javier (+2500, 0.15u) at bet365
  • AL: Kevin Gausman (+2000, 0.1u) at bet365
  • AL: George Kirby (+6000, 0.05u) at FanDuel

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NL Rookie of the Year Odds, Picks | Best Bets for Jordan Walker, More

nl-rookie-of-the-year-odds-picks-best-bets-jordan-walker-2023

In 2011, a pair of pitchers (Jeremy Hellickson and Craig Kimbrel) swept the Rookie of the Year honors for the first time in 30 years (Dave Righetti and Fernando Valenzuela in 1981).

However, 18 of the past 22 winners (82%) accumulated more playing time on offense (including Shohei Ohtani, 2018), so I lean toward position players in this market, all else being relatively equal.

Moreover, Wins Above Replacement, or “WAR” ranking, has become increasingly crucial to award voters in the past decade. 

Sixteen of the past 22 Rookie of the Year winners (73%) finished atop the rookies in their league in WAR, with an average rank of 1.5 among the 22 awards recipients. And that includes a pandemic-shortened 2019 season, where Devin Williams (sixth) and Kyle Lewis (second) claimed honors.

Here are my projected WAR leaders among rookies for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at FanDuel:

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National League

Corbin Carroll (the No. 2 overall prospect) is a bit clearer of a favorite in the National League than Henderson is in the AL, despite the spring buzz surrounding Jordan Walker (No. 4 prospect), who I bet in late February on a scouting assumption, as opposed to a combination of scouting and projections (like Volpe).

While my projections for Walker have improved since the preseason (by about 150 plate appearances), his stats aren’t in the territory to justify a wager as essentially a co-favorite with Carroll. Walker was my favorite rookie bet in the NL at +1000; however, I wouldn’t play him below the best current price (+600 at bet365).

If you didn’t speculate a month ago before spring training, you were already too late on Walker.

I potentially fired too early on top pitching prospect Andrew Painter (at +2500), but his number started to drop after one outing before his injury. Those are the risks we take betting players before spring training. I would avoid Painter since he’s dealing with a UCL sprain, and the Phillies will be extremely cautious with his arm.

Zerillo’s Best Bets for MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the YearRead now

Other current NL targets include Ezequiel Tovar (No. 25 prospect), another 21-year-old starting shortstop like Volpe, who should get a boost to his offensive stat line at home; and a couple of Reds prospects, Spencer Steer and Elly de la Cruz (No. 10 prospect).

Steer has a path to full playing time as the Reds’ everyday third baseman. The most optimistic projections put Steer at 2.6 WAR, which would put him in contention for the award.

De la Cruz will start the year in the minors, but he could see the majors by early summer, if not earlier. While you can wait for a better price on him, I’m comfortable with the current number. Upon his call-up, de la Cruz will immediately be among the most electric players in the major leagues. While he has similar physical gifts to Pirates shortstop Oneil Cruz, he is more than three years younger. His upside is galactic.

The final player I would consider in the NL is Garrett Mitchell, who played well in a 28-game sample last season (136 wrC+) and should hold down an everyday outfield spot for the Brewers. In terms of prospect status, he pales compared to the other top contenders, but he is guaranteed a healthy amount of playing time (400+ plate appearances) with the opportunity for more.

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Rookie of the Year Bets

  • NL: Jordan Walker (+600, 0.15u) at bet365
  • NL: Spencer Steer (+3000, 0.1u) at Superbook
  • NL: Ezequiel Tovar (+1200, 0.1u) at Caesars
  • NL: Elly de la Cruz (+1600, 0.1u) at FanDuel

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AL Rookie of the Year Odds, Picks | Best Bets for Anthony Volpe, More

al-rookie-of-the-year-odds-picks-best-bets-anthony-volpe-2023

In 2011, a pair of pitchers (Jeremy Hellickson and Craig Kimbrel) swept the Rookie of the Year honors for the first time in 30 years (Dave Righetti and Fernando Valenzuela in 1981).

However, 18 of the past 22 winners (82%) accumulated more playing time on offense (including Shohei Ohtani, 2018), so I lean toward position players in this market, all else being relatively equal.

Moreover, Wins Above Replacement, or “WAR” ranking, has become increasingly crucial to award voters in the past decade. 

Sixteen of the past 22 Rookie of the Year winners (73%) finished atop the rookies in their league in WAR, with an average rank of 1.5 among the 22 awards recipients. And that includes a pandemic-shortened 2019 season, where Devin Williams (sixth) and Kyle Lewis (second) claimed honors.

Here are my projected WAR leaders among rookies for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at FanDuel:

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American League

We might as well begin by discussing the biggest spring riser — Anthony Volpe (the No. 5 prospect per MLB Pipeline) — who I bet and entered into the Action App at +2500 on February 23rd. When I ran early projections, Volpe was the only player who stacked up with presumptive favorite Gunnar Henderson (No. 1 prospect) based on average WAR as a component of playing time.

In late February, I only had Volpe slated for 250 plate appearances but was willing to speculate on his talent level (represented by the matching average WAR projection). After a strong spring, I now project Volpe for closer to 560 plate appearances, with the opportunity for even more depending upon his lineup spot, health and performance.

For context, three different projection systems have updated their numbers since Volpe won a roster spot; all have him projected between 3.0 and 3.5 WAR.

At this point, I would just about set Volpe as a co-favorite with Henderson, and considering the price differential, the Yankees’ phenom is still my favorite bet in the AL, down to +500.

While pitchers typically don’t win the award, there are a couple of potential studs in the 2023 class with Grayson Rodriguez (No. 7 prospect) and Hunter Brown (No. 43). Rodriguez will start the year in the minors after a shaky spring, while Brown is currently nursing a back injury. Still, both have the potential to emerge as frontline starters at the MLB level immediately.

Zerillo’s Best Bets for MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the YearRead now

The other players I’m interested in from an average production standpoint are both catchers — Logan O’Hoppe (No. 53 prospect) and Bo Naylor (No. 64 prospect).

As you’ll see with the catchers on the MVP leaderboards, catchers generally rate very highly in WAR as a component of playing time. Still, with few exceptions, starting catchers rarely have a path to additional playing time beyond their initial projection, so there’s not as much upside in their overall profile.

Naylor should get the call from Cleveland at some point this season, and if the race is still wide open by then, consider betting him to enter the mix.

O’Hoppe is worthy of a preseason wager. He technically owns a starting spot and could surpass playing time expectations (around 300 plate appearances), depending on various factors.

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Rookie of the Year Bets

  • AL: Anthony Volpe (+700, 0.2u) at bet365
  • AL: Hunter Brown (+1800, 0.1u) at FanDuel
  • AL: Grayson Rodriguez (+1300, 0.1u) at FanDuel
  • AL: Logan O’Hoppe (+2500, 0.1u) at Superbook

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2023 MLB Futures | Best Bets For Win Totals, Awards, Props, More

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The 2023 Major League Baseball season begins on Thursday, and before you lay down your cold, hard cash on the plethora of games in front of us, there’s plenty of opportunities to lay down your cold, hard cash on futures.

Giving sportsbooks a six-month, interest-free loan may not sound like the most appealing thing in the world, but rest assured, there’s value to be found.

From World Series bets to win totals, player props and more, our analysts have scoured the market for betting options ahead of Opening Day. These are our best MLB futures for the 2023 season.

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MLB Best Future Bets

Texas Rangers Under 82.5 Wins

Odds via DraftKings

Mike Ianniello: The Texas Rangers made arguably the biggest offseason signing, inking two-time Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom to a five-year, $185 million contract.

While there is no denying deGrom is elite when he is on the mound, he has pitched just 26 games over the last two seasons. They also added 33-year-old Nathan Eovaldi, 32-year-old Andrew Heaney, and re-signed 32-year-old Martin Perez, who is coming off his best season by a country mile and an obvious regression candidate.

This rotation certainly has the upside for a quick turnaround, but has a floor that could be a disaster.

Offensively, Texas finished 20th in wOBA and wRC+ last season. Nathaniel Lowe is the only player who posted a wRC+ over 120 as Marcus Semien came back down to earth and Corey Seager had the second-worst wOBA of his career. The Rangers have one of the weakest outfields in the league and didn’t add any real valuable bats this offseason.

While Seager should see a return to form and will benefit immensely from the shift ban, the Rangers’ defense was bottom-10 in the league last year and would have been even worse without the shift, so that could even out.

I understand why the upside of deGrom moves the needle of hope for the Rangers, but this team hasn’t won more than 78 games since 2016. They won just 68 games last year and I don’t believe the pitching additions are enough for a 15-game jump.

Hunter Greene Over 181.5 Strikeouts
Hunter Greene To Lead MLB In Strikeouts (+3200)

Odds via FanDuel

Shayne Trail: In the early stages of his rookie season, Greene struggled with his fastball, throwing it more than 440 times and yielding a dismal batting average of .373. Moreover, Greene’s debut year was characterized by inconsistent displays and a shoulder strain. However, as the 2022 season progressed, Greene demonstrated remarkable growth and potential, setting the stage for an impressive 2023 campaign.

Greene’s swinging-strike percentage stood at an impressive 14.5%, ranking him ninth-best in the majors and placing him just ahead of renowned aces like Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon. This achievement corresponded with a significant improvement in his fastball performance, as he threw it more than 260 times for a .115 batting average against.

The 23-year-old fireballer managed to strike out 164 batters in just 125 2/3 innings. Greene’s refined pitch selection and increased reliance on his four-seam fastball contributed to a substantial enhancement in his last four starts. In this period, he registered a 0.78 ERA and a 14.5 K/9 ratio, with two double-digit strikeout games in 29 innings while allowing only one home run.

Greene’s fastball gained velocity throughout the season, averaging 99.8 mph in September and October, the highest of any starting pitcher in any month during the 2022 season. With an augmented spin rate and “rise,” Greene’s fastball became an even more formidable weapon against opposing hitters.

By concentrating on elevating his fastball, Greene attained a 40% whiff rate in the final two months of the season, ranking second among starting pitchers. Greene’s in season growth was phenomenal and the 2023 jump is now set up perfectly.

These improvements indicate Greene has successfully harnessed his talent to a greater extent. As the 2023 season kicks off, various bookmakers project his strikeout total to range between 181.5 and 190.5 Barring any injury setbacks, Greene is poised to surpass his 181.5 line over at FanDuel and potentially make a case for himself as the MLB strikeout leader with 32:1 odds presenting great value, also at FanDuel.

Tampa Bay Rays To Win American League Pennant (+1100)

Odds via PointsBet

B.J. Cunningham: The Tampa Bay Rays didn’t really lose anybody significant from their roster that made the playoffs last season. In fact, the Rays have made the playoffs the past four seasons, and they do it with having an outstanding bullpen that makes up for the lack of depth at starting pitching.

Guess what? They have another incredibly strong and deep bullpen that I have rated as the third best bullpen in MLB behind only the Braves and Mariners because they’re just incredibly consistent; last season, they weren’t near the top in K/9, but they had the second lowest BB/9 rate.

Their two main relievers are Pete Fairbanks, who missed a significant portion of last season and only pitched 24 innings, and Jason Adam. Both of those guys were under a 2.1 xERA last season and had a LOB% over 89%.

Beyond those two, the Rays have a bunch of guys who are projected to be around 3.5 ERA types, which isn’t elite, but it’s also above average, so the depth is really what is going to carry this Rays staff.

Then you look at the starting pitching. Tyler Glasnow hardly pitched last season after recovering from Tommy John surgery. He has a strained oblique right now that is going to keep him out 6-8 weeks which would put him back in the rotation sometime mid-to-late April.

Shane McClanahan is still one of the best pitchers in MLB, Jeffrey Springs went from the bullpen to the starting rotation last year and turned out to be pretty effective, posting a 3.27 xERA is 25 starts. Drew Rassmussen was a perfectly capable starter, as his xERA last season in 28 starts was 3.46.

They added Zach Eflin who really underperformed last season, as he posted a 4.04 ERA, but his xERA was almost a full run lower at 3.27. So when Glasnow gets healthy you essentially have five starting pitchers with an xERA under 3.5. That’s really good.

The offense is pretty much the exact same as it was last season. You get a continually progressing Wander Franco, Randy Arozerena was incredibly productive last season and is still young and Yandy Diaz had a breakout season last year. It’ll be an average MLB offense, but with the pitching staff and bullpen the Rays have, along with the amount of depth, that’s crucial in such a long season.

Most importantly, FanGraphs has them projected at at 10.8% chance of winning the American League, which is +850 implied odds, so getting them at +1100 has some value.

Yordan Alvarez To Lead MLB In Home Runs (+1200)

Odds via Caesars

D.J. James: Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani greatly overshadowed Yordan Álvarez during the 2022 season. After getting injured late in the season, Álvarez ended up with 135 games , where he still finished with 37 home runs and a .613 SLG. He hit the sixth-most home runs and went deep in nearly 8% of his at-bats.

Álvarez ranked in the 100th percentile in Average Exit Velocity, xwOBA, Barrel Percentage, Hard Hit Percentage, xSLG and xBA. For reference, this is almost exactly where Aaron Judge ranked.

If Álvarez plays a full season, he likely finishes above 45 home runs, and this is an area to back in 2023. ZIPS projects he will hit 40 home runs, but he very well could finish among the tops of the league yet again.

Banking on a complete season and Álvarez not faltering with his encouraging peripherals is a strong bet. He does not make mistakes and him not chasing after poor pitches or striking out much helps his case. He hits the ball so unbelievably hard that the more times he makes contact, the better the chance of it leaving the yard.

Take Álvarez to lead the MLB in home runs at +900 or better.

Pete Alonso To Win National League MVP (+1600)

Odds via FanDuel

Nick Shlain: Most Valuable Player awards in baseball typically go to the best player on the best team. Even if one of the best sluggers in the league is taking the mound every fifth day like Shohei Ohtani, a player having his best season on a playoff team can swoop in and win the award like Aaron Judge did in the American League last year. 

Alonso is similar to Judge in that he plays on one of the best teams in baseball in the spotlight of New York City. The Mets were a playoff team last year and despite the loss of All-Star closer Edwin Diaz they should be much improved this year. New York added Justin Verlander and Kodai Senga to a rotation that already had Max Scherzer. 

The Mets also start the year with David Peterson in the rotation after his impressive finish to last season and scoreless spring training appearances this year.

Alonso has hit at least 37 home runs in every season he’s played in the majors that wasn’t shortened by COVID-19. While my projections have Alonso for only 32 home runs this season, Vegas is more bullish on his home run potential and I’m inclined to agree. His over/under home run total at DraftKings is 37.5. 

He’s +900 to lead the league in home runs this year so at +1600 on FanDuel to win the Most Valuable Player there is certainly value in this number.

San Diego Padres Under 93.5 Wins

Odds via DraftKings

Kenny Ducey: The Padres are one of the hottest bets in the futures market right now. DraftKings is currently reporting they’re the fourth-most bet team to win the World Series with 9% of the handle.

While this is reason enough to fade San Diego with no value left in betting on a good season, I think there are a multitude of reasons to hate this team.

Let’s start with the offense. Is it even good? San Diego had a measly 102 wRC+ last season and didn’t get much better after adding Juan Soto, checking in with a 106 wRC+ after the All-Star break.

Yes, the Padres will get Fernando Tatis, Jr. back in a matter of weeks to form a ridiculous murderer’s row comprising of Soto, Tatis, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts, but what’s left after that? Jake Cronenworth is regressing fast, Matt Carpenter looked ready for retirement last October and Trent Grisham has completely forgot how to hit a baseball.

Don’t even get me started on this rotation, either. Yu Darvish’s strikeout rate declined for a third straight season in 2022 and he’s allowed a total of 50 (yes, five-zero) home runs over the last two years. His barrel rate has come in well above league average in those seasons and the only reason he’s been able to escape many of these starts unscathed is due to his extremely low walk rate. If he begins issuing free passes, the 37-year-old is going to fall off, and fall off fast.

So, that’s the guy who’s supposed to lead this rotation to glory? Then you’ve got Blake Snell, who had a couple good months after two and a half terrible seasons, Seth Lugo who’s supposed to be a starting pitcher now, and Michael Wacha, of all people.

I do like Joe Musgrove a lot, and it’s hard to argue the top of this lineup isn’t the best in baseball. There’s little left after those five, even if Josh Hader has returned to his former dominant self. The Dodgers are good, the Giants have some interesting names, and for my money 93.5 wins is way too many for a team this flawed.

When you bake in the public is in love with the Padres, this bet is the easiest call on the board.

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NHL on TNT Best Bets: Islanders-Capitals, Wild-Avalanche Picks, More

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Wednesday night’s NHL on TNT slate features two interesting matchups with plenty of playoff significance.

The Islanders take on the Capitals as New York looks to widen its lead to eight points over the Panthers in the Wild Card race.

The Avalanche sit just one point behind the red-hot Wild for first in the Central. This nightcap will offer a massive four-point swing and could help one side avoid a tough first-round matchup.

Tonight’s NHL on TNT slate:

  • Islanders vs. Capitals (7:30 p.m. ET)
  • Wild vs. Avalanche (10 p.m. ET)

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Islanders vs. Capitals

Pick Bo Horvat Over 2.5 Shots on Goal; Anytime Goalscorer
Sportsbook BetRivers, FanDuel
Puck drop 7:30 p.m. ET
TV TNT

It has been well noted by most non-Islanders media that Bo Horvat has produced very little offensively since arriving in New York. Most Islanders faithful would proudly say he is still doing a lot of the little things that have helped the team put up a stellar 13-6-4 mark since his arrival.

A look into Horvat’s underlying results illustrates he is tilting the ice in the right direction and generating a ton of looks.

Over the last 11 games, Horvat has generated 2.89 expected goals at even strength from 28 shots on goal. Both of those marks lead the Islanders during that stretch, but aside from his empty net goal versus New Jersey, he has finished 0% of those chances.

Over the last 10 games, Washington has allowed 33.01 shots against per 60. It is far from a defensive juggernaut at this point in the season.

In an important matchup versus a middling Caps side, I like the chances that Horvat continues to generate quality scoring chances.

Horvat is priced at -113 to record three shots on BetRivers, which is certainly a playable number. He is at +210 to record a goal on FanDuel, which is another strong option.

If I were a bettor able to access both lines, I would split a unit on those two plays. If you are someone without access to one of the lines or the other, I would put a full unit on the best number you can get compared to most markets.

Pick: Bo Horvat O2.5 SOG (-113)

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Pick: Bo Horvat Anytime Goal (+210)

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Wild vs. Avalanche

Pick Valeri Nichushkin Anytime Goal +275; +115 Assist
Sportsbook BetRivers, bet365, FanDuel
Puck drop 10 p.m. ET
TV TNT

With all the incredible talent on Colorado’s roster, it’s easy for Nichushkin to get lost in the shuffle and become somewhat of a forgotten superstar.

Nichushkin had been fairly quiet throughout December and January as he was in and out of the lineup due to injury, but he has been in incredible form of late, producing at an elite level.

He has put up eight goals and 25 points over his last 20 games. He is capable of generating a wealth of chances regardless of his spot in the lineup.

With Artturi Lehkonen sidelined, Colorado is going with a completely stacked top unit of Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Nichushkin at even strength.

At worst, that means Nichushkin’s incredible recent production should hold, but if anything we could see a slight uptake considering how difficult keeping that line in check should prove.

Nichushkin is priced at +275 to score a goal and +115 to record an assist. Both are very playable, and splitting a unit and making a slight profit so long as he records a point is a solid strategy.

Pick: Valeri Nichushkin to Record Assist (+115)

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Pick Filip Gustavsson Over 30.5 Saves
Sportsbook N/A
Puck drop 10 p.m. ET
TV TNT

As goaltender save props aren’t available until later in the day, I am speculating about what this number will be and noting where I would play it.

Minnesota’s tear up the Central division standings has been in large part due to the incredible play in goal from Filip Gustavsson, who has thrived behind some pretty clean defensive play.

While Minnesota isn’t allowing a ton of quality looks, it has allowed 32.12 shots against per 60 in March, while Colorado has generated 33.06 shots per game this month.

In a matchup with so much on the line, I expect Colorado’s top stars to bring dominant performances and find ways to put lots of pressure on Gustavsson and the Wild.

I would play Gustavsson over 30.5 saves at a number of -120 or better. If it’s Marc-Andre Fleury in goal for Minny, I would only play 30.5 at -105.

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Heat vs. Knicks Odds, Pick, Prediction | NBA Betting Preview

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Heat vs. Knicks Odds

Heat Odds +154
Knicks Odds -184
Over/Under 224 (-110/-110)
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
TV NBA League Pass
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

After suffering a tough loss in Toronto, the Heat travel to Madison Square Garden to take on the Knicks Wednesday.

Can the Heat bounce back in New York? Or will the Knicks continue to dominate teams at home? Let’s break down how this one might play out.

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Miami Heat

The Heat posted an outstanding offensive rating of 126.5 against the Knicks exactly one week ago in Miami. Their half-court offense was dominant in that one, as they shot 57% from 3 over the course of the game.

Overall, they shot 66.7% effectively from the field, a 95th-percentile performance. That game was certainly an outlier shooting performance for the Heat, who rank just 26th in effective field goal percentage (52.7%) on the season.

Whether this offense makes shots is pretty much the barometer for its success. Miami doesn’t generate many offensive rebounds (18th), and it doesn’t get out in transition, ranking 25th in transition rate and just 19th in transition offensive rating.

It’ll have trouble replicating that performance with its best offensive player, Jimmy Butler, entering the matchup as questionable. Butler sat against the Raptors, so I would expect him to play here given the playoff implications of this game.

Even with Butler, a 57% performance from 3 is certainly not repeatable, so expect offensive regression from the Heat here.

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New York Knicks

The story for the Knicks post-trade deadline has been the tandem of Josh Hart and Immanuel Quickley off the bench. Look no further than these two for the reason why the Knicks have managed to remain in fifth place despite missing Jalen Brunson for an extended stretch of games.

Hart has a net rating swing of (+14.8) as a Knick, placing him seventh in the entire NBA in the net-rating swing for the year. Quickley has the single best defensive rating swing (-10.9) in the entire NBA and is now the clear favorite for Sixth Man of the Year at most sportsbooks.

Let’s highlight Quickley for a second, as he’s coming off an unbelievable 40-point performance against the Rockets. Quickley shot 14-of-18 (78%) from the field, 5-of-7 (71%) from 3 and also dished out nine assists. Quickley now has two 35+-point performances and has combined for two total turnovers in those games.

His ability to take care of the ball, defend, and shoot efficiently from all over the floor is going to get him paid in the offseason.

Between Quickley and Brunson, the Knicks have two of the five guards to have played 2,000-plus minutes this season and rank in the top five in turnover percentage on offense, with Brunson ranking first and Quickley sitting fifth. Their ability to take care of the ball will be huge tonight as they face a Heat defense that ranks fourth in turnover rate (16.3%).

If Brunson makes his return from injury tonight and the Knicks get some of that positive defensive regression, I’d expect them to roll tonight.

Heat-Knicks Pick

It’s difficult to make a prediction without knowing the status of the two most impactful players on either side of the court, but if Butler and Brunson are both able to go, I would lean toward the Knicks at -4.5.

This line says the Knicks are only 1-1.5 points better than the Raptors, as Toronto opened at -3 yesterday before Butler was ruled out.

Considering the Heat are now on a back-to-back and the Knicks rank a full two points ahead of the Raptors in net rating (+3.0 vs +1.0), I would have to make this line closer to -5.5/-6 if Brunson plays.

I expect Brunson to play tonight, so grab the Knicks at -4.5 now.

Pick: Knicks -4.5 (-110)

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MLB Betting Preview | Odds, Best Bets For All 30 Teams Ahead of Opening Day

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Major League Baseball is finally upon us. Just getting here? Welcome! Before the first pitch of the 2023 season, there’s a myriad of futures to sort through in order to ensure you find premium value in the betting market.

Below, you’ll find relevant future odds for all 30 teams, as well as one bet our staff recommends throwing down before the 162-game marathon gets going.

Continue reading for odds and best bets for every team in Major League Baseball for the 2023 season.

Click on a division to skip ahead
American League East
National League East
American League Central
National League Central
American League West
National League West

Odds in betting overviews via FanDuel. For updated MLB futures all season long, be sure to visit our MLB odds page.

American League East

Baltimore Orioles

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +2500
Pennant Odds +4000
World Series Odds +10000
Regular Season Wins 76.5
To Make Playoffs Yes +320 / No -430

Best Bet: Grayson Rodriguez to Win AL Rookie of the Year (+1300)

Sean Zerillo: We might as well begin by discussing the biggest spring riser — Anthony Volpe (the No. 5 prospect per MLB Pipeline) — who I bet and entered into the Action App at +2500 on February 23rd. When I ran early projections, Volpe was the only player who stacked up with presumptive favorite Gunnar Henderson (No. 1 prospect) based on average WAR as a component of playing time.

In late February, I only had Volpe slated for 250 plate appearances but was willing to speculate on his talent level (represented by the matching average WAR projection). After a strong spring, I now project Volpe for closer to 560 plate appearances, with the opportunity for even more depending upon his lineup spot, health and performance.

For context, three different projection systems have updated their numbers since Volpe won a roster spot; all have him projected between 3.0 and 3.5 WAR.

At this point, I would just about set Volpe as a co-favorite with Henderson, and considering the price differential, the Yankees’ phenom is still my favorite bet in the AL, down to +500.

While pitchers typically don’t win the award, there are a couple of potential studs in the 2023 class with Grayson Rodriguez (No. 7 prospect) and Hunter Brown (No. 43). Rodriguez will start the year in the minors after a shaky spring, while Brown is currently nursing a back injury. Still, both have the potential to emerge as frontline starters at the MLB level immediately.

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Boston Red Sox

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +1800
Pennant Odds +3000
World Series Odds +6000
Regular Season Wins 78.5
To Make Playoffs Yes +310 / No -420

Best Bet: Over 78.5 Wins

Tanner McGrath: The projections don’t like it, and the public doesn’t like it, but here’s my case for why the Red Sox can be a .500 ball club this year. 

The biggest issue with the 2022 Red Sox was an inability to close games. The Sox blew a preposterous 28 saves out of 65 opportunities, many of which came in divisional games, where the Red Sox went an abysmal 26-50. 

The most obvious bullpen addition is Kenley Jansen, who immediately steps in and solves the closer problem that Alex Cora was trying to patch together all season. But don’t overlook the additions of Chris Martin and Joely Rodriguez (although the latter may be hurt to start the year), as either is better than whatever the Sox were throwing out in the final frames last season. 

Meanwhile, the offense will certainly take a step back sans Xander Bogaerts. However, it’s often overlooked how good the Red Sox offense was last year, finishing the year with the league’s most doubles and top-10 in hard-hit and barrel rates. 

So, I don’t think it’ll be as bad as everyone makes it out to be. 

I’m also betting on the Red Sox upside. 

First, Tristan Casas could turn into an elite MLB first baseman. He profiles as one, and ZiPS projects him with a 121 wRC+ this year.

Second, Brayan Bello has better stuff than 90% of big-league pitchers, as his fastball-changeup mix is elite at forcing whiffs and weak contact. He struggled to start the season but ended with a 2.59 ERA over his final six starts. He could carry that momentum into this season.

Finally, Justin Turner and Masataka Yoshida shouldn’t be overlooked. Both profile as three-win batters and could collectively compensate for Bogaerts’ absence, especially with both batting directly behind Rafael Devers. 

Ultimately, this squad may surprise people and the projections. I expect the Sox to win a few more games than last year and surge over the 78.5-win total, finishing right in the thick of the wildcard race. 

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New York Yankees

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +130
Pennant Odds +370
World Series Odds +850
Regular Season Wins 93.5
To Make Playoffs Yes -480 / No +350

Best Bet: Yankees To Win AL East (+130)

Sean Zerillo: The Yankees underachieved by seven wins last season while ranking as the top defensive team in baseball. Just 13% of their defensive value was tied to the infield shift, so their defensive excellence should carry over into 2023, and adding an impact-free agent in Carlos Rodon raises their ceiling.

My projected win gaps between the Yankees and Blue Jays (5.8 wins) and Yankees and Rays (7.2 wins) split the difference between the aggressive projection on the Bombers from PECOTA (7.9 and 10.7 wins from Toronto and Tampa Bay) and the tighter AL East projection from ZIPS (3 and 3.3 wins differentials).

As a result, my projection would come in right around the PECOTA/ZIPS composites lines I provide for quick reference.

-150 seems a fairer price on the Yankees’ divisional odds than the market average, and I would set their World Series line closer to +650 rather than the best available price (+800 at FanDuel)

However, I prefer their AL Pennant Odds (+350 at BetMGM and Caesars) to a World Series ticket at this stage.

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Tampa Bay Rays

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +270
Pennant Odds +900
World Series Odds +2000
Regular Season Wins 89.5
To Make Playoffs Yes -188 / No +152

Best Bet: Pete Fairbanks Most Saves (+6600)

Sean Zerillo: We might find some value in the saves market with the projected leader and favorite Edwin Diaz out for the season.

Similar to the pitcher wins market, I’m merely looking for players that are mispriced relative to their projection bucket, and three closers on potentially playoff-bound teams — Devin Williams, Clay Holmes, and Pete Fairbanks — seem mispriced. 

Unfortunately, the odds for all three pitchers have decreased since I bet them (at +2000, +3300, and +8000, respectively). Still, based on their projections alone, they should be lined closer to +1500, +2000, and +5000, respectively — so there is still room to bet each.

Fairbanks was my favorite bet a few weeks ago, but his velocity is down in spring training. Like Holmes, he is the head of a committee in Tampa Bay and the Rays don’t necessarily save their closer for the final three outs.

Fairbanks was ridiculous in 24 innings last season (1.03 xERA) and arguably the best pitcher in baseball after returning from injury. His price is attractive considering his elite skillset. Still, he’s never pitched more than 42 innings in an entire season — and may already be hurt again. Otherwise, I would have bet more at these odds.

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Toronto Blue Jays

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +200
Pennant Odds +600
World Series Odds +1200
Regular Season Wins 91.5
To Make Playoffs Yes -250 / No +198

Best Bet: Blue Jays To Win AL East (+220)

Doug Ziefel: The Blue Jays were a team getting a ton of love heading into last season, as they were a trendy World Series pick. Although those aspirations did not come to fruition as injuries struck, the lineup was a tad streaky, and their season culminated with a wild-card elimination.

However, fans and bettors should have renewed optimism around this club as they may be stronger than last year. They bolstered the starting rotation with the signing of Chris Bassitt and gave their lineup some flexibility by acquiring Daulton Varsho.

Speaking of the lineup, it will still be a daunting task for any pitcher to go through. Toronto led the majors in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity last season and will be near the top again if the lineup remains intact.

The Blue Jays’ ability to drive the ball and make loud contact will help them climb the standings this season, as a stable rotation will support the lineup, and we should also expect the Yankees to regress as well.

American League Central

Chicago White Sox

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +300
Pennant Odds +1600
World Series Odds +3500
Regular Season Wins 83.5
To Make Playoffs Yes +128 / No -158

Best Bet: Under 83.5 Wins

Sean Zerillo: The White Sox overachieved by three wins last season and still finished nine wins below their win total. Every projection system likes them to go Under again in 2023, and I am the low man in the market — seeing nearly a seven-win gap between my projection and Chicago’s listed total; while the projection market is closer to a four-win delta.

The White Sox were miserable defensively in 2022 (-35 Defensive Runs Saved, 26th) and should be worse without the shift (12 Defensive Runs Saved via the shift). They also ranked as a bottom-10 baserunning team.

While this 26-man roster offers high-end talent, their 40-man roster (and beyond) lacks competent replacements.

The White Sox will need extraordinary injury luck to make a playoff push in 2023.

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Cleveland Guardians

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +115
Pennant Odds +1200
World Series Odds +2500
Regular Season Wins 86.5
To Make Playoffs Yes -150 / No +122

Best Bet: Guardians To Win AL Pennant (+1400)

D.J. James: This is more of a play on the rest of the American League Central. While the news of Triston McKenzie starting the season in the injured list definitely knocks the Guardians down a peg, this team should be able to win the American League Central, and at that point, the playoffs are a crapshoot.

Hunter Gaddis is likely replacing McKenzie for the time being. Across 57 games in the minors, he held a 3.90 ERA, so he can hold the rotation slot with Konnor Pilkington possibly waiting in the wings.

This team still has a solid cast around the pitching staff. They have Trevor Stephan, James Karinchak, Enyel De Los Santos, Eli Morgan and Emmanuel Clase to close out games, so manager Terry Francona has plenty of options.

Spearheaded by Steven Kwan leading off and never striking out, the lineup is not bad, either. They added Mike Zunino and Josh Bell to the mix, who help bolster a lineup that lacked a bit of power. Amed Rosario and Andrés Giménez had career years, and José Ramírez can hit with the best of the league. If Oscar González can display some patience, he has a bright career ahead of him.

Top to bottom, this team has more depth than the talented, but oft-injured Chicago White Sox. The Minnesota Twins also have a questionable pitching staff, so betting on the team that can get through the division and be undervalued for the playoffs is a decent look.

If the Guardians can get to October with a healthy pitching staff, this team can hold most teams in check.

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Detroit Tigers

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +3000
Pennant Odds +10000
World Series Odds +20000
Regular Season Wins 69.5
To Make Playoffs Yes +1800 / No -8000

Best Bet: Under 70.5 Wins

Sean Zerillo: A second consensus Under bet — between my projection and the market projection — at 70 wins or higher. However, ZIPS (70.3 wins) would recommend betting the Over or passing at the current number. 

Detroit won 66 games in 2022 but overachieved by three wins, and the Tigers still finished 8.5 wins below their listed total.

While they ranked as an above-average defensive team (25 Defensive Runs Saved, 13th), the Tigers relied heavily upon the shift (+25 DRS); and like the White Sox, they struggled on the base paths (22nd).

And their two best young pitchers — Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize — are slated to miss most of the 2023 season. Skubal (2.9 WAR in 21 starts) was the Tigers’ most valuable player by a fairly significant margin in 2022.

Kansas City Royals

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +3500
Pennant Odds +10000
World Series Odds +20000
Regular Season Wins 68.5
To Make Playoffs Yes +1500 / No -5000

Best Bet: Royals To Win AL Central (+4000)

Jim Turvey: It would be very easy to skim right over the Royals, so I had to catch your eye with this big number. Now, I wouldn’t have blamed you for skimming over the Royals. They haven’t been relevant in almost a decade now (isn’t it crazy how long ago 2015 was?!), and they’re in the most forgettable division.

However, there’s a little bit of intrigue to be found in Kauffman this summer. 

For one thing, they have a new manager. It’s Matt Quatraro, and while the Tampa Bay Rays coaching and front office tree has proven to not be 100 percent infallible in recent years (oh hi, Chaim), that’s always the type of hire that’s going to at least draw further attention from me. 

And on closer inspection, the Royals next wave is here. Their starting lineup consists of Salvador Perez as the veteran behind the dish, Hunter Dozier randomly hanging out at third base, and then basically an entire wave of young players who debuted last season or just a hair before.

Bobby Witt Jr. is the biggest name of the bunch, but Vinnie Pasquantino has baseball hipsters nearly as excited. MJ Melendez is a projections darling this season, and the outfield is a collection of fast dudes with enough pop in the bat to play — a great fit for that spacious outfield in Kansas City. The team can just see what sticks there until Drew Waters returns.

The pitching is the biggest question mark, but it’s also where there’s arguably more pedigree. Zack Greinke and Jordan Lyles are the low-ceiling top two of the rotation, but after that, it’s a collection of first and second-round picks who the Royals will continue to test out.

Brady Singer is the most established, but there are a variety of arms they can go through if they so please: Kris Bubic (1st round, 2018), Daniel Lynch (1st round, 2018), Jackson Kowar (1st round, 2018), Asa Lacy (1st round, 2020), T.J. Sikkema (1st round, 2019), Jonathan Bowlan (2nd round, 2019), Alex Marsh (2nd round, 2019).

If Quatraro brought even a bit of that touch of experimentation and pitching magic from Tampa, this could be a really fun team with a ton of young talent ready to explode. And if you want to go the more boring (and safe, I suppose) route of just betting their win total over, I also like that play. (Best odds are over 68.5 -110 at Caesars).

But to win the AL Central is a far lower bar than I think any of even think about, and FanGraphs odds say this should be closer to +3000, so there’s a bit of an edge (even if that edge is tiny by implied odds, and Baseball Prospectus actually thinks the odds should be even longer).

Tis the season for eternal optimism, and with a fun, young core, and a fresh new manager, why not have a little fun on a lotto ticket? 

Minnesota Twins

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +180
Pennant Odds +1600
World Series Odds +3000
Regular Season Wins 84.5
To Make Playoffs Yes +106 / No -130

Best Bet: Twins To Make The Playoffs (+130)

Charlie DiSturco: It seems like the Minnesota Twins are going unnoticed. 

This is a team that sat at 67-61 and in the thick of the AL Central race late in the second half of the season. But despite buying at the deadline, a season littered with injuries ended 11-23. 

There’s a lot to be positive about with this Minnesota roster. This is an underrated rotation that added Pablo Lopez in the offseason, and with both Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda at full health, the group of five is arguably as well-rounded as the White Sox and Guardians. 

The necessary adjustments were made in the offseason on the offensive end, too. Carlos Correa was re-signed after a rollercoaster month where he nearly ended up a Giant and Met, and Christian Vazquez was brought in to shore up weakness at the catcher position. 

Michael A. Taylor’s addition also means Byron Buxton will be an everyday DH, putting less strain on the potential superstar — 47 home runs in 153 games the last two years — and hopefully keeping him healthy. Joey Gallo also gets a change of scenery in hopes to revive his career.

Neither this offense nor rotation should be taken lightly. Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez and Jovani Moran make for a strong backend of the bullpen, too. 

To me, grabbing the Twins to make the playoffs at plus money is a steal. PECOTA projects Minnesota with a 68% chance at the playoffs (87.6 wins) and FanGraphs is at 66.7% with a slight edge to the Twins over both the Guardians and White Sox to win the AL Central outright. 

In an American League where anything can happen in the middle of the pack, I like backing the Twins to bounce back from a down season en route to a postseason berth — whether it be in their division or one of the three wild-card spots.

American League West

Houston Astros

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds -185
Pennant Odds +280
World Series Odds +600
Regular Season Wins 95.5
To Make Playoffs Yes -750 / No +490

Best Bet: Yordan Alvarez To Win AL MVP (+1200)

Jim Turvey: Alvarez fits the criteria better than anyone else in the American League. He’ll be 26-years-old and in his fifth season this year, both around the peak career trajectory points. He’s fresh off a third-place finish in the MVP race, and he has a Rookie of the Year Award to his name. His team is very likely to win 90+ games, and Houston is a market that has proven itself capable of creating award winners. He even has that semi-intangible where you can very easily make the case for him being the best hitter in baseball, which is an area where his teammate, Tucker, would likely fail.

The case against him is really only twofold: He has to go through Ohtani, and he has a bit of the Vladito Disease of seemingly not being in perfect conditioning and it leading to him being dinged up and not 100 percent all the time.

As for the former, I laid out above why I am passing on Ohtani this season.

And for the latter, that’s why it’s +1200 and not +600 or so. I’m definitely a bit worried about this hand injury Alvarez is carrying right now. The Astros have been vague about any updates, and he’s only just started swinging a bat. It feels like the type of injury that could definitely linger all season and sap power. It’s why I actually targeted Alvarez to go against in terms of head-to-head home run props.

But there’s a big difference in betting Alvarez’s floor vs his ceiling. There are also plenty of times in which people hear these stories during preseason and get scared off, only to have the player fully locked and loaded all season, and there are very few players in the sport with a higher ceiling than Alvarez. He totaled 6.8 rWAR in just 135 games last season, mostly as a DH. His 187 OPS+ would’ve led all of baseball five of the past 10 seasons.

There’s definitely some inherent risk here, but at 12:1 and with the ceiling he has, Yordan Alvarez for AL MVP is my second favorite bet this season.

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Los Angeles Angels

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +550
Pennant Odds +1800
World Series Odds +4000
Regular Season Wins 82.5
To Make Playoffs Yes +146 / No -180

Best Bet: Mike Trout To Be Home Run Leader (+1200)

Nick Shlain: Mike Trout isn’t No. 1 in my home run projections, he’s third behind the Yankees’ Aaron Judge and the Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber. Still, there’s lots of value in this number at +1200 on Caesars.

Trout to lead the league in home runs is as low as +275 on BetRivers and for good reason. Trout is the closest player we’ve seen to Mickey Mantle since number seven was trotting around in pinstripes. Last year, Trout hit an absurd 40 home runs in just 119 games. He was so hot to start the second half in 2022 that he hit 16 home runs in just 40 games.

Unfortunately, Trout has battled injury problems constantly in recent years. He hasn’t played even 145 games since 2016, but those injury problems are basically the only thing stopping him from leading the league in home runs.

This bet equates to if this guy stays healthy, we have a good chance to cash in or at least have a late season sweat. I like this as a health bet, similar to Judge last year when he played 150 games for the second time in his career as he set the American League record for home runs.

Trout won’t have to break any records this time around as Judge is likely to take a big step back from his career outlier season. Maybe even Schwarber will attempt to hit for more contact this year with defenses unable to shift on him, though I wouldn’t exactly count on that.

Still, if Trout can just stay healthy he has a very legitimate chance and at these odds it’s too good to pass up.

Oakland Athletics

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +25000
Pennant Odds +30000
World Series Odds +100000
Regular Season Wins 59.5
To Make Playoffs Yes +3000 / No -20000

Best Bet: To Finish With Fewest Wins In The League (+330)

Alex Hinton: After four consecutive winning seasons, the Athletics went 60-102 last season, good for the second worst record in the MLB. In the offseason, the club sent catcher Sean Murphy and his 3.5 WAR to Atlanta. Shea Langeliers will replace Murphy and look to cement himself as the team’s catcher of the present and future. The team is also excited about starters Ken Waldichuk and Kyle Muller and outfielder Esteury Ruiz. 

However, 2023 is expected to be another lean year. Let’s start with the AL West, which is one of MLB’s strongest divisions. 

The Astros are the defending World Series champions and are loaded for another postseason run. The Mariners ended their postseason drought last and have much bigger aspirations in 2023. The Rangers may emerge as a wild-card contender after free agent spending over the last two offseasons.

The Angels, Oakland’s opening day opponent, still have the best players in the sport and are fully healthy to begin the year. Wins in the division will be hard to come by for Oakland. 

Other contenders for the worst record include the Royals, Tigers, Rockies, Reds and Pirates. The Royals and Tigers will steal wins in a weak AL Central. The Reds and Pirates are also in a weak division, and the Rockies generally are a hard enough out at Coors Field to not be a factor as well. 

That means the Athletics’ primary competition for this bet could be the Nationals, who had the worst record last year. Like Oakland, the Nationals figure to lose a lot of games to divisional opponents in the NL East. However, their season win totals are just a game apart — 59.5 for Washington and 60.5 for Oakland. 

The Nationals are +250 to have the fewest wins on DraftKings. However, on FanDuel, the odds are much closer- +260 for Washington and +270 Oakland. With the slight value on DraftKings, the Athletics are a great flier for this bet.

Seattle Mariners

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +360
Pennant Odds +1000
World Series Odds +2000
Regular Season Wins 86.5
To Make Playoffs Yes -150 / No +122

Best Bet: Julio Rodriguez AL MVP (+1000)

Sean Zerillo: Shohei Ohtani is the obvious favorite, and toward the end of last season, I suspected he would be closer to even money for AL MVP heading into 2023.

Mike Trout closed between +110 and +130 during the height of his AL reign. Ohtani still received first-place votes for MVP last season, even though Aaron Judge posted the best individual season for a position player since Barry Bonds retired.

Assuming Ohtani stays healthy, someone else must post a historic offensive season to get into the conversation. If you want to fire a single bullet at an Ohtani MVP future (+225 at Superbook), I won’t fault you; he is likely a once-in-a-lifetime type of talent and in the midst of his prime.

That’s not how I bet baseball futures, though. I would prefer to structure a portfolio in each category at reduced risk for longer odds. A two or three-week IL stint is enough to derail any season-long player future.

Sorting by average production as a component of playing time, Trout, Yordan Alvarez, Julio Rodriguez, Jose Ramirez and Corey Seager are the only players who approach Judge in terms of average production. In terms of value, Seager is likely the best bet in the AL.

Considering any player expected to average below 0.2 WAR per 25 PA as a potential MVP candidate is difficult.

I bet Judge last year (0.25u at +2500) among a group of six AL hitters. At the time, he ranked third in my average WAR filter (0.24 per 25 PA); health was the only question.

And the odds for Rodriguez (+1000 at Superbook) are likely too short given his projections, but I firmly believe J-Rod is bound for multiple MVP awards throughout his career, and I’ll bet him blindly every year in this price range.

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Texas Rangers

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +1000
Pennant Odds +2500
World Series Odds +5000
Regular Season Wins 81.5
To Make Playoffs Yes +205 / No -260

Best Bet: Corey Seager To Win AL MVP (+4500)

Jim Turvey: Seager was the bet I gave out for my earliest roundtable when these lines were first released. He was 50:1 at the moment, but the price still isn’t bad at +4500 at FanDuel. He fits this criteria to a T. Seager is 29-years-old, has a third-place MVP finish in a Rookie of the Year season. He is playing for a team that if he is having an MVP-worthy season could well be in the breakout bucket. And even in his down seasons, like last year, he does very well by WAR (3.9 rWAR and 4.6 fWAR in 2022).

There’s also the fact that no batter should benefit more from the shift than Seager, and that he is smoking the ball in preseason (look at the exit velocities rather than the raw numbers if you’re going to pay any attention to Spring Training at all), and he remains a best bet.

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National League East

Atlanta Braves

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +100
Pennant Odds +380
World Series Odds +750
Regular Season Wins 95.5
To Make Playoffs Yes -650 / No +440

Best Bet: Max Fried To Have Most Wins (+2500)

Sean Zerillo: In any stat leader market, I’m looking to identify players near the top of the projection leaderboard who aren’t correctly bucketed — on the odds board — relative to their projection peers.

For example, Max Fried (+2500) immediately stands out on the list above. I have him tied for the league lead with Gerrit Cole and project Fried for the most starts on the team with my highest projected win total.

Fried is my favorite bet in the wins market.

Miami Marlins

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +4000
Pennant Odds +4000
World Series Odds +12000
Regular Season Wins 75.5
To Make Playoffs Yes +430 / No -620

Best Bet: Over 74.5 Wins

Sean Zerillo: We bet the Marlins Over 74.5 wins last season and will try it again — although I wouldn’t bet the number past 75. The composite projection gives you an extra half-win bump to 75.5, while the market projections (namely PECOTA) create actionability to Over 76.

Miami leaned into the ruleset with high-contact offensive additions (Luis Arraez and Jean Segura). However, they could be a mess defensively without the shift.

That said, they can get a quality start every time out with their young, high-upside rotation pieces, including likely returnee Sixto Sanchez and the potential arrival of No. 2 overall prospect Eury Perez.

New York Mets

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +155
Pennant Odds +500
World Series Odds +900
Regular Season Wins 93.5
To Make Playoffs Yes -500 / No +360

Best Bet: Pete Alonso To Win NL MVP (+1600)

Nick Shlain: Most Valuable Player awards in baseball typically go to the best player on the best team. Even if one of the best sluggers in the league is taking the mound every fifth day like Shohei Ohtani, a player having his best season on a playoff team can swoop in and win the award like Aaron Judge did in the American League last year. 

Alonso is similar to Judge in that he plays on one of the best teams in baseball in the spotlight of New York City. The Mets were a playoff team last year and despite the loss of All-Star closer Edwin Diaz they should be much improved this year. New York added Justin Verlander and Kodai Senga to a rotation that already had Max Scherzer. 

The Mets also start the year with David Peterson in the rotation after his impressive finish to last season and scoreless spring training appearances this year.

Alonso has hit at least 37 home runs in every season he’s played in the majors that wasn’t shortened by COVID-19. While my projections have Alonso for only 32 home runs this season, Vegas is more bullish on his home run potential and I’m inclined to agree. His over/under home run total at DraftKings is 37.5. 

He’s +900 to lead the league in home runs this year so at +1600 on FanDuel to win the Most Valuable Player there is certainly value in this number.

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Philadelphia Phillies

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +400
Pennant Odds +750
World Series Odds +1500
Regular Season Wins 88.5
To Make Playoffs Yes -192 / No +154

Best Bet: Under 89.5 Wins

Sean Zerillo: At 89.5 (+100), this was my favorite win total bet in the National League. At 88 (-110), I would probably only bet it for a half unit.

Technically, my projection likes the Phillies Under down to 87.5. Still, the projection market is much more closely aligned with their total — Davenport and PECOTA leaning Over 88.5.

Compared to their chief divisional rivals, the Phillies are worse on defense (25th in Defensive Runs Saved) and have far less organizational depth.

If everyone stays healthy — and Bryce Harper returns earlier than anticipated — they can surpass this number and threaten the division.

Average injury luck puts them Under, however. Their win total improved by three wins, but their composite projection declined by 1.3 wins.

The Phillies were my favorite longshot last season — their roster was always live if they found a way to make it to October. In terms of depth, they are not built as well to win in the regular season as they are laden with a star talent for the playoffs.

Washington Nationals

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +25000
Pennant Odds +20000
World Series Odds +50000
Regular Season Wins 58.5
To Make Playoffs Yes +3000 / No -20000

Best Bet: Under 59.5 Wins

Anthony Dabbundo: The Nationals don’t have a single hitter projected to be above-average by The BAT X projections this season. The roster is almost completely barren of everyday MLB talent and it’s not like the Nationals are in a position to have top young prospects come up and make an immediate impact in 2023, either.

Most of the guys they got in the Juan Soto trade are still developing. CJ Abrams is a nice shortstop defensively, but his bat still needs work. The pitching situation isn’t all that much better. The Nationals had a solid bullpen in 2022, but that’s hard to rely on year to year.

The rotation features Patrick Corbin, who had one of the worst fastballs in baseball last year and lost 19 games himself. They lost top pitching prospect Cade Cavalli to Tommy John and will have low upside journeymen Chad Kuhl and Trevor Williams in the starting rotation alongside promising youngsters Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore. 

PECOTA does have them at 61 wins, but I’m much closer to the FanGraphs projection for 55 wins in 2023. This is the league’s worst team, and not even a somewhat more friendly schedule with fewer games against the top of the NL East will save them from that.

The Nationals played at a 55-win pace after trading Josh Bell and Soto at the deadline.

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National League Central

Chicago Cubs

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +600
Pennant Odds +4000
World Series Odds +8000
Regular Season Wins 76.5
To Make Playoffs Yes +320 / No -430

Best Bet: Cubs To Win NL Central (+700)

Dylan Wilkerson: The NL Central was the laughing stock of the National League last year, and when you take a look at the league as a whole, you can understand why. The Central’s only representative in the playoffs last season was the Cardinals who won the division. 

When you consider that the winner of the division only has to beat out the Brewers, Pirates, and the Reds (aka Seattle’s farm team), there seems to be one team that rises out of the muck, the Chicago Cubs. 

The Cubs made major moves in the offseason, as they both retained and acquired talent from across the league. Trey Mancini signed after having a great season with both the Orioles and Astros. His production and reliability should add some consistency to the Cubs’ roster as he has played in 140+ games every year since 2017. 

Nico Hoerner will be back this season and bring his exceptional plate discipline with him. His transition to second base should be smooth, and he will be a great complement to the newly acquired shortstop, Dansby Swanson.

The Cubs’ pitching struggled last season, allowing the third-most home runs in the league. Chicago’s pitching was in the middle of the league in a variety of other stats, but their acquisitions may elevate them to the top. Jameson Taillon should be helpful in the rotation alongside Marcus Stroman and Kyle Hendricks, and there are plenty of intriguing young arms, too, such as Justin Steele and Hayden Wesneski. 

This is both a play on the moves that the Cubs made in the offseason, as well as the weakness of their division. At +650 to win one of the weakest divisions in baseball? Sign me up.

Cincinnati Reds

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +6000
Pennant Odds +10000
World Series Odds +25000
Regular Season Wins 65.5
To Make Playoffs Yes +1800 / No -8000

Best Bet: Hunter Greene To Have Most Strikeouts (+4000)

Sean Zerillo: Last season I only placed one strikeout leader bet (Dylan Cease). I projected 11 pitchers for 200+ strikeouts in 2022, but only two were listed at +2000 or higher on the board.

The betting landscape for strikeout leaders has changed for 2023. I have 14 pitchers projected for 200+ strikeouts, but six are +2000 or higher on the odds board, and four of those pitchers are +3000 or higher.

Among the projected strikeout leaders, I prefer Nola, a workhorse with a low injury risk (13.4%) who ranks second behind Cole in total strikeouts since the start of the 2019 season. If the other projected leaders miss time — and all except for Corbin Burnes present a higher injury risk — Nola could grind his way ahead of the pack. He has a higher floor than anyone else.

My favorite speculative strikeout plays are Javier, Luis Castillo and Hunter Greene, each offering drastically superior odds compared to their projected contemporaries, all of whom improved in the second half of the 2022 season.

Typically, I try to limit my selections to about five or six bets per category. If I had gone deeper into the strikeout market, I’d look at Kevin Gausman and Brandon Woodruff. However, both pitchers saw a decreased workload per start last season relative to previous years.

Shohei Ohtani (who operates in a six-man rotation) will struggle to surpass 30 starts in an entirely healthy season, otherwise he would be easier to justify at his price point.

I love Gausman and Ohtani, but I would rather bet both in the Cy Young market than the strikeout leader market (and I already have). We’ll talk about both of them more in Part III of my MLB futures guide.

I don’t necessarily have a favorite bet in this category, but I am partial to Greene and Javier at their prices.

Milwaukee Brewers

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +165
Pennant Odds +1500
World Series Odds +3500
Regular Season Wins 86.5
To Make Playoffs Yes -110 / No -110

Best Bet: Corbin Burnes To Have Most Strikeouts (+900)

Nick Shlain: Corbin Burnes is the second favorite for the National League Cy Young award at +550 on DraftKings Sportsbook behind defending Cy Young award winner Sandy Alcantara.

I’m bearish on Alcantara’s chances to successfully defend this award and while there’s value in Burnes’ number there’s another season-long prop I have my eye on here.

Burnes is +900 to lead the league in strikeouts, behind the Yankees’ Gerrit Cole and the Braves’ Spencer Strider. Cole and Strider are both ahead of Burnes in strikeouts in my projections, but Burnes would take the strikeout title down if he were to repeat the 243 strikeouts he posted last year compared to their projections.

He also threw over 200 innings for the first time last year while Strider managed only 131 2/3 innings before succumbing to injury. Cole has struck out at least 243 batters in each of the last two years, but his inning totals have been 181 1/3 and 200 2/3, respectively.

Burnes notably lost his arbitration case with the Brewers this past offseason despite a great season, while Cole has already cashed in on a long term deal in free agency. Burnes is headed back to the arbitration table this offseason and has extra motivation to toss more innings and thus strike out more batters this time around.

On the other hand, Cole could have his workload managed towards the end of the season if the Yankees are already settled in playoff position.

At +900, there’s certainly value on Burnes leading the league in strikeouts.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +3800
Pennant Odds +8000
World Series Odds +20000
Regular Season Wins 67.5
To Make Playoffs Yes +1500 / No -5000

Best Bet: Over 67.5 Wins

Mike Ianniello: You’d be hard-pressed to find a fanbase that deserves better than Pittsburgh Pirates fans. Pittsburgh is one of the best sports towns in the country, yet the Yinzers are stuck watching a team every year assembled by an owner who continues to not care. The Pirates have missed the playoffs seven straight years and have just three postseason appearances in the last 29 years.

The Buccos won just 62 games last season, the third-worst record in the league. However, I see a reason for some optimism this year. Will they contend for the postseason? No. But they should be fun to watch and resemble a competent ball club this year. Last year, the Pirates were basically a Triple-A team. Daniel Vogelbach was second on the team in wRC+ and played just 75 games with Pittsburgh.

Well, this season we will actually see some major league-caliber players take the field along the Allegheny River. The Pirates continue to work on a contract extension for All-Star center fielder Bryan Reynolds, and young stars Oneil Cruz and Ke’Bryan Hayes are an electric duo on the left side of the infield that should only continue to improve. 

This offseason they added Ji-Man Choi, Carlos Santana, Austin Hedges, and of course the return of former MVP, Andrew McCutchen. The longtime face of the franchise will provide an instant injection of life into that locker room and the fan base. Not to mention he is just one year removed from a 27-home run season. 

A talented group of young arms in Mitch Keller, Roansy Contreras and JT Brubaker are joined by veterans Rich Hill and Vince Velasquez, and Pittsburgh somehow always manages to have a stud closer. I think we see a big jump up from this Pirates team. Even league-average players throughout the lineup is an upgrade from last season. 

Take the Pirates to raise the jolly roger at least 68 times this season.

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St. Louis Cardinals

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds -130
Pennant Odds +1000
World Series Odds +2000
Regular Season Wins 88.5
To Make Playoffs Yes -220 / No +176

Best Bet: Jordan Walker To Win NL Rookie Of The Year (+600)

Sean Zerillo: Corbin Carroll (the No. 2 overall prospect) is a bit clearer of a favorite in the National League than Gunnar Henderson is in the AL, despite the spring buzz surrounding Jordan Walker (No. 4 prospect), who I bet in late February on a scouting assumption, as opposed to a combination of scouting and projections (like Anthony Volpe).

While my projections for Walker have improved since the preseason (by about 150 plate appearances), his stats aren’t in the territory to justify a wager as essentially a co-favorite with Carroll. Walker was my favorite rookie bet in the NL at +1000; however, I wouldn’t play him below the best current price (+600 at bet365).

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National League West

Arizona Diamondbacks

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +4000
Pennant Odds +5000
World Series Odds +12000
Regular Season Wins 75.5
To Make Playoffs Yes +430 / No -620

Best Bet: Over 74.5 Wins

Anthony Dabbundo: Stolen base attempts are up 20% in spring training this season compared to last year’s spring training. From a team speed perspective, few are better positioned to take advantage of the stealing enhancement than the Diamondbacks.

Corbin Carroll was the fastest player in all of MLB in his debut last September. Jake McCarthy is projected to swipe 25-plus bases. Josh Rojas stole 23 last year, and Alek Thomas is in the 95th percentile for sprint speed on Baseball Savant.

Arizona could also turn to Jordan Lawlar — one of its top prospects — in the middle of the season, and he’d add more speed to the basepaths as well.

This team will put a ton of pressure on opposing defenses because of its speed, and the Diamondbacks are also projected to be a well above-average defense too. By outs above average, no team was even close to Arizona last season with a +44 rating. The next best was Houston at +36.

The defense and the speed are small difference-makers that season-long projections can sometimes miss on a team.

The upside for this roster comes from its young pitching. Ryne Nelson, Drey Jameson and Brandon Pfaadt all add depth to this starting rotation behind the solid front three of Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Madison Bumgarner. Nelson registered a 117.8 Stuff+, per Eno Sarris’ model from The Athletic, and paired that with above-average command. He has three good pitches and could become a rotation regular.

Pfaadt struggled with homers in the PCL in the minors, but his high fastball should be electric in a more friendly pitching environment. Jameson doesn’t have overwhelming stuff but locates well and has a decent floor as a back-end starter because of it.

Last season, The Diamondbacks were one of the most profitable first-five teams in the whole sport but couldn’t carry it through nine innings. The bullpen once again is a weakness on paper, but the natural variance and randomness to bullpens on a year-to-year basis suggest there’s room to regress positively.

There’s some disagreement in the models on Arizona this season. ZiPS has it at 81 wins, PECOTA is at 73.8 and FanGraphs is at 77.

I love the young pitching, and the Diamondbacks are my favorite win total of the season at over 74.5 wins. I’d play the over at 75.5 but no higher than that.

Colorado Rockies

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +15000
Pennant Odds +10000
World Series Odds +50000
Regular Season Wins 64.5
To Make Playoffs Yes +2500 / No -10000

Best Bet: CJ Cron To Have Most Home Runs (+9000)

Kenny Ducey: You wanna get nuts? Let’s get nuts.

Oh, did you expect to take the easy road here and tell you that Ezequiel Tovar at +1200 has a real chance to win Rookie of the Year? He very well may, but that’s not the biggest value on the board in my eyes.

No, I think CJ Cron has a better than the implied 1.1% chance to lead the league in homers. There are certainly some formidable names in front of him like Aaron Judge, Matt Olson, Kyle Schwarber and others, but Cron isn’t too far away from the league’s top tier when it comes to homers.

The big man has big power at 6-foot-4, 235 lbs, and gets to put it to use in the friendliest park in the league. He’s averaged right around 29 homers the last two seasons and even made his first All-Star Game last year as his career continues on an upward trajectory.

Now, Cron is 33 and there’s certainly a real chance that 2022 was his peak, and that he starts getting worse. There’s also a chance that the last two seasons are reason enough to believe he’s finally found his rhythm at the plate. He’s been a virtual lock to come in around or just under 30 homers for his past four healthy seasons, which normally puts him in the top 25 of all home run hitters.

It’s certainly a longshot, but it’s the most fun you can possibly have betting on the Colorado Rockies. Another thing to love here is the fact that Cron has played 292 of a possible 324 games over the past season, so he should be on the field to give this home run crown a real run.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds -125
Pennant Odds +380
World Series Odds +750
Regular Season Wins 96.5
To Make Playoffs Yes -800 / No +520

Best Bet: Under 96.5 Wins

Anthony Dabbundo: The Dodgers look as vulnerable as they have in multiple seasons.

Gavin Lux tore his ACL on Monday, leaving them dangerously thin in the infield since Justin Turner and Trea Turner left in the offseason. The current infield is likely to feature rookie Miguel Vargas at second base and mediocre veteran Miguel Rojas at shortstop.

They’re also likely to start Trayce Thompson in center field and David Peralta in left.

The Dodgers could be starting as many as four or five players who are league-average hitters at their positions, and Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts and Will Smith are not enough to make up for that themselves.

Without an additional star, the Dodgers’ lineup goes from impossibly deep to just above average. Look across the National League, and it’s apparent that St. Louis, San Diego, Philadelphia, New York and Atlanta all look better than this unit from top to bottom.

Los Angeles has been a pitching factory for years, and betting against it in this department is asking for trouble. But even the rotation has more questions about durability than ever.

Clayton Kershaw remains elite when on the mound, but he took extra rest often last year between starts and shouldn’t be counted on for more than 120 innings. Tony Gonsolin is unlikely to repeat his absurd success in the first half of 2022. Noah Syndergaard could improve his velocity again, but if he doesn’t, he’s a below-average MLB starter.

If everything goes right, it’s a top-five rotation in baseball once again. But the depth behind the main starters is diminished from last season barring a huge step forward in command from prospect Ryan Pepiot.

The lineup lost three near-everyday starters at shortstop, third base and center field and didn’t replace any of them in free agency. That’s going to cost them wins, and it may cost it the division too.

PECOTA has the Dodgers at 95.2 wins, FanGraphs is at 87, ZiPS sits at 91 and Zerillo comes in at 95.7. Davenport is also at 95 for them.

They’re a public team, and their dominance of the sport should be respected. But this team looks weaker on paper than any Dodger team in recent memory. I’d bet under at 95.5 or better.

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San Diego Padres

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +120
Pennant Odds +500
World Series Odds +1000
Regular Season Wins 93.5
To Make Playoffs Yes -480 / No +350

Best Bet: Juan Soto To Win NL MVP (+550)

Sean Zerillo: I bet on Juan Soto to win the NL MVP before the pandemic-shortened 2020 season (at +1200), and before the 2021 season, I bet him at +850 and said that I would keep betting on Soto until he wins an MVP award.

Ultimately, I lied. Soto’s odds dropped to +300 before last season, and I never pulled the trigger, but I’m back in for 2023 at a far more reasonable price point.

Aside from his teammate, Fernando Tatis Jr. — who is suspended for 20 games to start the season and, in my opinion, the worst player to bet in any market for 2023, and Dodgers catcher Will Smith — Soto laps the NL field in terms of production as a component of playing time.

Soto to win NL MVP is my favorite player awards bet; you can play him down to +400.

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San Francisco Giants

Betting Overview
Divisional Odds +1200
Pennant Odds +2700
World Series Odds +5000
Regular Season Wins 81.5
To Make Playoffs Yes +184 / No -230

Best Bet: Logan Webb To Win NL Cy Young (+3000)

Sean Zerillo: I bet on Logan Webb, whose average production (0.18) pales compared to his teammate Alex Cobb (0.20); and falls below my benchmark.

I’ve watched a lot of Webb’s starts over the past two seasons, and I’m convinced he’s better than his underlying metrics indicate. He prevents extra-base hits, generates a ton of groundballs (58.6% career) to kill rallies, and rarely allows the backbreaking three-run homer (0.60 HR/9). Webb is tough to barrel up (5.5%), and his skill set may be better suited to a playing environment with an increased number of balls in play.

That said, +3000 is far less enticing than the +4000 I locked in.

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Anthony Joshua vs. Jermaine Franklin Odds, Pick & Prediction: Target Over-under in Heavyweight Clash (Saturday, April 1)

Anthony Joshua vs. Jermaine Franklin Odds

Joshua Odds
-1250
Franklin Odds
+650
Over/Under
7.5 (+105 / -135)
Venue
The O2 (London)
Time
2 p.m. ET (5 p.m. ET main event)
Channel
DAZN
Odds as of Wednesday and via PointsBet

Anthony Joshua is back!

Some of you read that and got excited, some of you rolled your eyes, and other boxing fans just want me to get on with it. Fine.

The polarizing former unified world heavyweight champion will embark on his first fight since losing back-to-back times against current IBF, WBO and WBA champion Oleksandr Usyk, the last of which took place in August.

(Usyk also has the IBO, but it isn’t recognized as a major world title – the last of which is held by Tyson Fury, the current WBC champion. Yes, it’s confusing and stupid, but I’m here to help!)

Joshua (24-3, 22 KOs) returns to the ring against heavyweight contender Jermaine Franklin (21-1, 14 KOs) this Saturday (2 p.m. ET, DAZN) at The 02 in London, where “AJ” hasn’t fought since 2016.

Joshua may be 0-2 in his last two fights and 2-3 in his last five going back to the famous Andy Ruiz knockout from 2019 – arguably the biggest sporting upset in Madison Square Garden history. Still, he’s one of the 10 or so biggest names in the sport, eyeing what could be his first win in 28 months.

He enters as a huge favorite over Franklin – we’ll get to that – but his challenger isn’t one to be flatly dismissed.

Franklin last fought against fellow Brit and former Joshua foe Dillian Whyte in November and boxed him to a majority decision loss while on his opponent’s home soil. To me, Franklin deserved a close victory or at least a draw, but the sport is the sport.

Now, let’s size this one up.

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Joshua vs. Franklin Fight Analysis

Joshua will have all the physical advantages here, as he’s had for nearly all of his fights – including his losses.

Joshua stands 6-foot-6 with an 82-inch reach and could be a nightmare when he decides to actually apply these gifts and box. Franklin is 6-foot-2 with a 77-inch reach, and while he did a healthy amount of damage and provided great difficulties for Whyte – 6-foot-4 with a 78-inch reach – he’ll have to be much craftier to penetrate Joshua’s defense.

Joshua is now working with lauded trainer Derrick James for the first time. James, widely considered among the best trainers in boxing, currently works with undisputed super welterweight champion Jermell Charlo and unified welterweight champion Errol Spence – two of the top-10 pound-for-pound fighters in the sport.

Joshua, to his credit, corrected himself in both notable rematches during his career. Against Ruiz, he was a bulky 247.75 pounds. He started well, boxing – using his jab and reach – even dropping him in Round 3. Then he fought the fight arrogantly, trying to steamroll Ruiz on the inside – to the smaller challenger’s advantage – and was lit up and dropped four times before being stopped in the seventh.

Comparatively, Franklin doesn’t have Ruiz’s overlooked speed, but he does carry similar pop, is the same height, and has a longer reach by three inches.

Usyk simply outboxed Joshua twice, though Joshua made adjustments and looked better in the second fight. Usyk – 6-foot-3 with a 78-inch reach – is just too good.

What Franklin did successfully against Whyte is also relevant in the Joshua fight. He was patient, he established his jab to both the head and body in Round 1 and carried it over, he countered well – especially with his left hook – he didn’t get careless, he displayed a solid chin, he didn’t ignore Whyte’s body to excessively head-hunt, and his work rate was consistent.

He did, however, eat more shots in the pocket than you would’ve liked, especially in the final championship rounds, where he seemingly gassed out.

Joshua – who famously knocked out Whyte in 2015 – is a different beast when he’s on. James training him shouldn’t exactly hurt, either. But Franklin has earned this opportunity and should arguably be undefeated right now. (Whyte’s body language after “defeating” Franklin could attest to this.)

For what it’s worth, Joshua and Franklin also share October birthdays: Joshua, 33, is four years older.

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Joshua vs. Franklin Pick

Ignore the moneyline, where Joshua is around -1200, unless you think Franklin is poised for an upset as the +750 underdog (via PointsBet).

(I actually did sprinkle on Franklin to beat Whyte months ago, for what that’s worth.)

Somewhat surprisingly, I’ve seen Joshua is -400 to win by knockout, with even worse odds than that at some books.

At FanDuel, Joshua is +500 to win by decision, which he’s only done twice: once against Ruiz in the rematch in December 2019 and against then-undefeated Joseph Parker in March of 2018.

As much as I like Franklin, I’m not positive he beats Joshua, especially one now partnering with James. But I do think Franklin survives longer than some oddsmakers appear to outline.

But the lines for Joshua’s knockout, to me, aren’t as trustworthy as a straight-up, old-school, over/under – and that’s the bet. The over/under for rounds is 7.5, with the expected outcome to come under (-135) as opposed to over (+105). This is an over for me. I think Franklin makes it into the latter stages of the fight. He’ll likely get knocked out then, too, but I’m more confident he at least gets there than he doesn’t.

My favorite bet: Over 7.5 rounds at +105 in the fight overall.

As far as the result, it’s likely Joshua gets the stoppage, but if you’re so inclined to sprinkle on the underdog, Franklin by KO at +1200 straight up is not a bad ticket. Joshua’s been dropped five times in his career – once by Wladimir Klitschko and four times by Ruiz. He was also buckled badly, nearing a knockdown, in fights against Whyte, Alexander Povetkin and the first Usyk fight – and this is all in Joshua’s peak.

Franklin winning would be a less shocking upset than Ruiz over Joshua, that’s for sure, but I’m taking the over on rounds, at least.

The Pick: Anthony Joshua vs. Jermaine Franklin over 7.5 rounds (+105 at PointsBet)

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Bonus Betting Analysis: Ramirez vs. Dogboe

For the second week in a row, a fight on ESPN may get dwarfed by other fights and sports. This week, we have Robeisy Ramirez (11-1, 7 KOs) vs. Isaac Dogboe (24-2, 15 KOs) for the vacant WBO featherweight title on ESPN (7 p.m. ET).

Ramirez is a -850 favorite on FanDuel (he was in the -700s weeks ago). Ramirez is the better all-around fighter and has KO’d his last three opponents. Dogboe’s two losses were both to previous champion and current super featherweight titleholder Emanuel Navarrete.

In both instances, Dogboe made it to the 12th round  – he just got knocked out the second time.

Ramirez is +120 on points and +130 by knockout. And I think he wins this on points in a Cuban-style counter-punching exhibition – and he should, because Ramirez will never get an opportunity catered to him like this again.

The KO can happen, but I think Dogboe makes it all 12 (and survives the last). (The fight going to distance is -102, even for yes and no, for what that’s worth.)

Pick: Robeisy Ramirez by Points or Decision (+125 at DraftKings)

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2023 Final Four Player Props: FAU vs San Diego State & Miami vs UConn Picks for Johnell Davis, Nijel Pack

final four-player props-picks-johnell davis-nijel pack-fau vs san diego state-miami vs uconn-2023

And then there were four.

After running my numbers, I’ve found two Final Four player props to bet before the numbers are gone. I have a unique market in mind for FAU’s Johnell Davis, while we’re going to fade Miami guard Nijel Pack.

Check out my Final Four picks for FAU vs. San Diego State and Miami vs. UConn below.

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Johnell Davis — Most Points Scored (+380, FanDuel)

The first semifinal is going to be a low-scoring game. Both teams rank inside the top 30 in bench minutes, so you could see up to nine players get between 15-30 minutes for each team.

Davis has our highest point projection (13.6%) in this game. Only three other players have a point projection over 10% (two for Florida Atlantic). The only San Diego State player with a projection over 10 is Matt Bradley, who has been held to eight total points over the Aztecs’ last two games. He has seen his playing time go way down, with just 20 total minutes over his last two games.

Davis has the ideal floor/ceiling combo to take down this market. In 11 games since becoming a starter, he’s finished with fewer than 12 points only once. He’s scored at least 15 points in five of those 11 games, and that could be enough to finish as this game’s top scorer.

San Diego State is a great defensive team that ranks 20th in the country in effective field goal percentage (eFG%) allowed.

Where Davis has an edge, though, is his ability to get to the free-throw line, where SDSU can’t defend him. Davis gets to the charity stripe at the highest rate among FAU players and is an 86% shooter when he gets there. That’s where I think he can overcome a tough defense and emerge as this game’s leading scorer.

Based on my simulations, I have Davis finishing as the top scorer 23.8% of the time. A fair line would be closer to +320.

You can find this bet at FanDuel (if your state allows betting on college player props) under the “Player Points” tab at “Top Points Scorer.”

Pick: Johnell Davis — Most Points Scored (+380)

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Nijel Pack Under 14.5 Points (-120, BetMGM)

Pack has cleared this line in nine of his last 15 games, averaging 15.7 points in that span. Miami’s opponent, UConn, has scored 80.7 points per game as a team in that span.

UConn’s defense is a tougher test than usual for Pack and the Canes, though. The Huskies rank 11th in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency and have a team total of 71.5 for this game. It’s an even tougher matchup for Pack, considering UConn has allowed the eighth-lowest eFG% in the country.

The Huskies also tend to send opponents to the free-throw line at one of the highest rates in the country. Pack tends to get most of his points from the field and doesn’t get to the line very often.

Isaiah Wong, Norchad Omier and Jordan Miller all get to the free-throw line two or three times more often than Pack, which means they should see a slight uptick in scoring.

We’re projecting Pack for closer to 12.5 points in this game with a 61% chance of staying under 14.5.

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NBA First Basket Expert Prop Pick: Value on Jaren Jackson Jr. & Xavier Tillman in Clippers vs. Grizzlies (Wednesday, March 29)

nba first basket-jaren jackson jr-xavier tillman-clipeprs vs grizzlies-march 29

NBA First Basket will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day here, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

Clippers vs.

Grizzlies

NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Jaren Jackson Jr. & Xavier Tillman

Odds Jackson (+460) · Tillman (+750)
Time 8 p.m. ET
Book  FanDuel · DraftKings

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The Los Angeles Clippers head to Memphis on Wednesday to take on the Grizzlies.

Ivica Zubac (49% opening tip win rate) will jump against Jaren Jackson Jr. (71% win rate) for the opening tip-off.  Jackson won a tip-off last season versus Zubac, while Zubac won an awkward tip-off earlier this month in Los Angeles.  I would still expect Memphis to win the tip in this one.

In the only game this year between the two teams, David Roddy stole the ball from Marcus Morris Sr. and dunked it for the first basket.

Ja Morant sat out yesterday’s game versus Orlando but is expected to be back in the lineup tonight.

Memphis’ first baskets are pretty evenly distributed on the season, but since the All-Star break, Jackson and Xavier Tillman have combined to take the first shot in 13 of the Grizzlies’ 18 games.  They have also combined to score the first team points in 12 of the last 18 games.

I’ll take both big men tonight to make the first basket.

The Picks:

  • Jackson 1st Basket on FanDuel +460 (Play to +400 · 0.65 Units)
  • Tillman 1st FG on DraftKings +750 (Play to +600 · 0.35 Units)

Pick: Jackson 1st Basket +460

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Clippers vs. Grizzlies First Basket Prop Data

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Clippers vs. Grizzlies Odds, Expert Pick, Prediction | NBA Betting Preview (Wednesday, March 29)

clippers-vs-grizzlies-odds-pick-prediction-preview-nba-march-29-2023

Clippers vs. Grizzlies Odds

Clippers Odds +5
Grizzlies Odds -5
Over/Under 227.5
Time 8 p.m. ET
TV NBA League Pass
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Los Angeles Clippers head to Memphis to face the Grizzlies Wednesday night in what could end up being a first-round playoff preview.

Memphis is on the second night of a back-to-back. The Grizzlies have won seven in a row and 10 of 11 and are now sitting comfortably as the 2-seed at 48-37, with a three-game cushion in the standings on either side.

This Clippers have won seven of 10 to bounce back after a five-game losing streak, but this one means much more to Los Angeles in the standings, trying desperately to stay above the fray and out of the play-in. But they’ll have to do it without Paul George, at least for now.

These teams played earlier this month, their only meeting of the season. Memphis shot the ball really well, hitting 18-of-34 3s (53%), but the Clippers lived at the line with 35 free throw attempts and absolutely dominated the glass, more than doubling the Grizzlies up with a 53-26 rebounding advantage to get the win.

That game was in LA. Can the Clippers repeat the feat in Memphis?

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Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers won’t have George in this one, nor Norman Powell. They were also without usual starter Marcus Morris on Monday, though he was out with an illness and could return.

This is a deep roster, though, and there are plenty of bodies to step in and get minutes. Russell Westbrook is always ready to soak up some more usage, and guys like Eric Gordon and Bones Hyland are always a threat for a big game.

Lately it’s been another name that’s surprised. Nic Batum has really stepped up his 3-point volume these last three games with PG on the shelf. He’s scoring 16.3 points per game with at least 12 in each of them, and he’s hit 16-of-22 3s during that stretch.

Batum obviously won’t shoot 73% forever, but the increase from 3.9 to 7.3 attempts per game is notable. Look for a Batum 3-pointers over, especially if Morris sits again.

This game means more to the Clippers, but there’s one split that should really make you think twice before backing LA to win this one. The Clippers have been dominant this season against teams below .500 at 29-10, but they’re an awful 11-26 against teams above .500.

In other words, the Clippers play like a 61-win team against the bad teams and a 25-win team against the good ones. Yikes.

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Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies are shorthanded, too — but the question is just how much. Brandon Clarke and Steven Adams will be missing, and that’s left the Grizzlies really short — quite literally — on bigs. Remember, the Clippers out-rebounded Memphis 2-to-1 earlier this month. That’s a pretty tough math problem to solve.

Watch the injury report to see whether Ja Morant will be in the lineup. He’s back from suspension now but didn’t play Tuesday night with a thigh injury and is listed as day-to-day, though it’s possible he just sit the first night of a back-to-back with the bigger game coming Wednesday. The Grizzlies are 11-8 without Morant this season, including 6-3 in this recent stretch — but one of those losses came in that game against the Clippers.

If Morant does sit, expect another good game from Tyus Jones in his place. Jones is averaging 15.5 points and 8.2 props/assists”>assists per game the last 10 games without Morant with a double-double in half of those games. That includes 25 and 12 with five steals against these Clippers. He looks like a good props target if Morant is out — perhaps an assists over or double-double. Jaren Jackson Jr. is another potential prop target, averaging 22.3 PPG from March 5 forward.

This could be a Luke Kennard revenge game spot, though. Kennard has really found a home in Memphis and is shooting the cover off the ball lately. He’s scored double-digits in eight straight, averaging 15.5 PPG during that stretch, and he’s an ungodly 35-of-56 on 3s that span. That’s 63% from deep on seven attempts a game, with at least four makes in six of the eight games.

Kennard also went 5-for-5 against the Clippers a few weeks ago. The volume usually isn’t huge with Kennard, but when he’s shooting this hot from deep, you have to look at his odds to hit 4+ 3s as a top play. His line has been set at 2.5, so you can play the traditional over if you prefer or go for an alternate line.

Memphis has been a home fortress for the Grizzlies. They’re nearly unbeatable there at 33-5 versus just 15-22 on the road. Be careful, though. Like the Clippers, Memphis has rolled up wins against poor competition at 30-9 against sub-.500 teams, so that gaudy home record shrinks without those easy ones.

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Clippers-Grizzlies Pick

Remember, you’ll need to wait to get clear Morant news before making any decision here.

If Morant sits, Jones props look like a good play, particularly any double-double at plus odds. If Morris sits for LA, a Batum 3s over could play. I still like riding Kennard’s hot hand best, especially in a revenge spot against his old team, and even more if Morant sits and frees up more shots. I’ll look to play Kennard’s 3s over and maybe go with 4+ or more on an escalator play.

If you’re looking for a side, the Clippers are in the more desperate spot but have struggled against top teams, and Memphis has been so good at home, with or without Morant. I’d lean toward a home cover but prefer the props.

Pick: Luke Kennard 3-point overs

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Valero Texas Open Market Report: The Betting Public Loves Rickie Fowler at TPC San Antonio

valero-texas-open-market-report-the-betting-public-loves-rickie-fowler-at-tpc-san-antonio

One week before the Masters, the PGA Tour is in San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open.

It may seem like an off-week to some after the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play last week and one of the biggest tournaments of the year next week, but there are still plenty of Tour players competing for high stakes this week.

The winner this week will find themselves in the Masters field next week along with $1.602 million.

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Rickie Fowler is one of those players seeking a spot at Augusta National next week. He has been flirting with the top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings over the last few weeks, which would have automatically gotten him into the Masters, but he finds himself at No. 59 and needs a win at TPC San Antonio to get in.

Fowler has been by far the most popular bet at BetMGM this week. At +1800 odds, he has been getting 12.8% of the bets and accounts for 18.1% of the handle. Consequently, he is BetMGM‘s biggest liability.

Si Woo Kim is another popular pick this week. As the third-biggest liability, he is getting 6% of the tickets and accounts for 7.6% of the money. He is also +1800 to win.

Matt Kuchar is the other major liability for BetMGM this week. He is getting 4.1% of the bets and accounts for 7.6% of the handle. Kuchar is currently +2800 to win.

Tyrell Hatton is the favorite this week and has been garnering some interest from bettors. The No. 17 ranked golfer in the world is getting 2.9% of the tickets and 5.8% of the handle.

Some other players who are popular bets this week include Hideki Matsuyama, Corey Conners, Cam Davis and Davis Riley.

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2023 MLB Win Totals: Every Team’s Odds, from Dodgers to Nationals

mlb-win-totals-every-team

The 162-game baseball schedule can be a grind, but that shouldn’t deter bettors from dabbling in MLB win totals. There’s plenty of value out there.

If you haven’t already, check out how our expert Sean Zerillo’s betting 2023 MLB win totals (and other player, division and World Series futures).

Ahead of Thursday’s Opening Day, here’s every team’s win total for the MLB season, with over/under prices reflected.

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2023 MLB Win Totals

Team Win Total
Dodgers 96.5 (-105/-115)
Braves 95.5 (-115/-105)
Astros 95.5 (-112/-108)
Padres 93.5 (-110/-110)
Mets 93.5 (-106/-114)
Yankees 93.5 (-104/-118)
Blue Jays 91.5 (-110/-110)
Rays 89.5 (-110/-110)
Cardinals 88.5 (-120/+102)
Phillies 88.5 (+100/-122)
Mariners 86.5 (-134/+110)
Guardians 86.5 (-128/+104)
Brewers 86.5 (+110/-134)
Twins 84.5 (-110/-110)
White Sox 83.5 (+106/-130)
Angels 82.5 (-115/-105)
Rangers 81.5 (-105/-115)
Giants 81.5 (+100/-122)
Red Sox 78.5 (-105/-115)
Cubs 76.5 (-128/+104)
Orioles 76.5 (-122/-102)
Marlins 75.5 (-122/+100)
Diamondbacks 75.5 (-115/-105)
Tigers 69.5 (-105/-115)
Royals 68.5 (-115/-105)
Pirates 67.5 (-115/-105)
Reds 65.5 (-120/-102)
Rockies 64.5 (-105/-115)
A’s 59.5 (-115/-105)
Nationals 58.5 (-122/+100)

Odds via FanDuel as of March 30. Ready to place your bets? Check out the newest, best FanDuel promo codes here!

The Dodgers own the top win total for the third consecutive season. They paced the majors with 101.5 in 2021, then again last year at 97.5.

See how our Anthony Dabbundo is betting the Dodgers win total – and others – here.

While L.A.’s part of the 2023 contender crop, other MLB win totals lower down the board have been popular, too.

For instance, the Pirates were peppered with action at one particular sportsbook, to the extent they were the most-bet “over” team in late February.

For more Action Network coverage of the 2023 MLB season, check out the latest MLB odds, as well as the public betting percentage breakdowns for all of the 2023 baseball games.

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Get Up to $1,500 Back in Bonus Bets if Your Bet on the Red Sox Loses!

The Red Sox are back in action, and now you can bet on them in Mass!

And if your first Sox bet loses, you’ll get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets from Caesars:

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Check out the details below.

Caesars Sportsbook

MA Offer: Bet Any Red Sox Game Up to $1,500, Get Refunded in Bonus Bets if You Lose!

Claim now: Click here

  • Who’s it for? New users in MA

How does betting with house money sound? At Caesars, your first wager on the Red Sox will be insured up to $1,500 in bonus bets.

To claim this offer:

Click here

  • Select your state
  • Register an account with code ACTION21BET
  • Make a deposit of at least $10
  • Place your first real-money wager of at least $10 on any Red Sox game

Note: If your bet loses, you’ll receive a bet worth 100% of the value within two business days of the qualifying bet settling.

If your bet wins, you’re looking at a big payout. And if it loses, you’ll have a bonus bet of the same amount to use on the market of your choice!

Head over to Caesars today to take advantage.

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MA only. 21+. New users and first wager only. Must register with eligible promo code. Bet amount of qualifying wager returned only if wager is settled as a loss. Maximum additional Bonus Bet of $1,500. Bonus Bet must be used within 14 days of receipt. See Caesars.com/promos for full terms. Void where prohibited. Know When To Stop Before You Start.® Gambling Problem? If you or a loved one is experiencing problems with gambling, please call 1-800-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org for 24/7 support. FOR HELP, CALL 1-800-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org
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2023 Valero Texas Open Expert Picks: Bet Matt Kuchar in Matchup Over Davis Riley

2023-valero-texas-open-expert-picks-bet-matt-kuchar-in-matchup-over-davis-riley

Can you smell the pimento cheese and blooming Azalea flowers approaching from Augusta National next week? While I know I can, there is a meaningful conversation to have about all tournaments counting the same way for bankroll growth.

Funds shouldn’t all of a sudden be increased to account for a major championship. Even if I am generally okay with the idea of getting down more wagers at the Masters because there are better markets open, it doesn’t mean we want to change the structure of how we build betting cards. In reality, the more proper gambling markets tend to occur during your watered-down contests.

Tournaments like this week’s Valero Texas Open possess tangible opportunities to attack a weaker market, so let’s talk about some of those options down below.

If you haven’t already, you can find me on Twitter @TeeOffSports. There, I will provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.

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Valero Texas Open Picks and Strategy

Matt Kuchar -115 Over Davis Riley (PointsBet)

I talked about Nick Taylor -110 over Adam Schenk on yesterday’s Links + Locks podcast that I do for Action Network. The general assessment behind that play stemmed from Schenk’s ranking of 97th in my model from a recalculated Strokes Gained sense. That potential pitfall was enhanced by an around-the-green game that was due for regression and a GIR rate that might find trouble at a course that delivers a seven percent expected decline in production.

Listeners of the show quickly turned that wager into something that is not quite doable anymore at its new -130 total. So instead of recycling old material that you could hear directly on that program, let’s go with a wager over at PointsBet that is brand-new which will allow me to take on another overrated commodity who my model was looking to fade from an in-tournament perspective this week in Davis Riley.

I want to clarify that I don’t believe this is a situation where Riley grades as some troubling prospect with a ton of missed-cut potential. The profile isn’t perfect, but it is more about a number-grab condition that should allow me to seize a price about 20 points off from where it should be because of Kuchar’s overall safety that mixes with an over-projected Riley.

My model seems to believe that the 26-year-old has these glaring holes in his course-specific makeup, generating lower levels of safety when we talk about his short game and wind play than it would care to see for the week.

Sure, the weighted proximity and total driving render this immaculate expectation that will shoot him up your model if you are running your own data. However, it is essential that we don’t forget about the seven percent decrease in GIR percentage that can quickly start to enhance if the Texas wind plays as much of a factor as I believe it might.

When we start looking more into that territory of avoiding errors, Riley’s expectations this week will begin to crumble. My model ranked him 99th over his past 50 rounds in moderate-to-severe wind conditions, and the weighted short game continues this downturn that has witnessed him rank 128th in this field in SG: Around the Green over a two-year regression model.

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