After England won only their second of eight major tournament penalty shootouts, and first at a World Cup, the English media are starting to believe that anything is possible. “Football’s coming home” as far as fans of the Three Lions are concerned, but if their team is to lift the trophy for the first time in more than 50 years, there are a few roadblocks still to overcome.
Sweden are, without question, a favorable quarterfinal opponent, but that’s not to say Saturday’s match in Samara will be plain sailing for Gareth Southgate’s men. It never is as far as England are concerned, nor is it when they come to blows with this weekend’s challengers.
England have, after all, won just one of their last eight competitive meetings with the Swedes, who have developed a liking for what has become a familiar underdog status under coach Janne Andersson. Indeed, since exiting Euro 2016 and waving goodbye to their greatest-ever player in Zlatan Ibrahimovic, there has been a realization that without a star name to call upon, the players have needed to accept their limitations and, in a roundabout way, turn that into a strength.
The Scandinavians have shown this summer and well beforehand just how difficult they are to break down, simply by sticking to their rigid positions when out of possession and sitting deep. In the past 18 months, they’ve beaten Portugal, France and Italy, so they aren’t to be underestimated, keeping five clean sheets in their last six matches.
It’s relatively clear how the pattern of this match will play out, with Sweden having had a lower possession share (36%) at this World Cup than any of the remaining teams. Plus, they’re well-aware that England are struggling to create meaningful chances from open play.
England have the tournament’s top scorer in their ranks, and Harry Kane will know that if he can add to his six-goal tally, he may well wrap up the Golden Boot. While there are those who will point to his duties as the penalty-kick taker as the main reason for his success this summer, he’s taken the chances that have come his way. Plus, his performance against Colombia was arguably the Tottenham star’s best all-around display of the tournament.
Sweden may have conceded only twice, but they have allowed their opponents the most shots on goal (61) of the quarterfinalists, and Kane doesn’t need a second invitation to shoot or indeed score. With odds over evens on the striker to do so at any time, that’s a bet that’s well worth considering, but I like the winning margin odds for England in this one.
It’s never straightforward when they are involved, after all, and Southgate’s charges are the only side remaining that are yet to keep a clean sheet. While their quality should win out, you can bank on a tight result, so England to win by exactly one goal would be my tip.
There is still football to be played before we know who will be competing in the NFC and AFC Championship Games, but that doesn’t mean bettors can’t look ahead at potential matchups.
On Thursday, PointsBet posted spreads for conference championship matchups if the top-two seeds in both the AFC and NFC win this weekend.
Team
Odds
Chiefs
-3
Titans
+3
Team
Odds
Buccaneers
+1.5
Packers
-1.5
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The Titans earned the first seed in the AFC after finishing with a better record than the Chiefs which secured home-field advantage for this potential game. Green Bay got the top spot in the NFC thanks to a tiebreaker over the Buccaneers.
All four of these teams are favored in their upcoming playoff games but not by much. The Titans are favored by 3.5 points against the Bengals, the Bucs by 2.5 points against the Rams, the Chiefs by 1.5 points against the Bills and the Packers by -5.5 against the 49ers.
There are advantages and disadvantages to playing look-ahead lines. If you believe there is an edge, it can be worth it. Georgia was a 1-point favorite over Alabama in the national championship on the look-ahead lines and then opened as a 2.5-point favorite and closed at Georgia -3. But anything can happen in the games, and a serious injury can completely ruin your number.
Who’s it for? New users in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, VA, WV
If you’re planning on betting the favorites on Saturday — heavyweight Ciryl Gane and welterweight Michel Pereira — you’re looking at some short odds and relatively small payouts.
Even Francis Ngannou isn’t offer all that much of a return as an underdog.
Don’t worry — you can bet Ngannou, Gane, Pereira or any of Saturday’s other fighters at PointsBet, and you’ll get $205 as long as your chosen fighter throws a punch. Your bet doesn’t even need to hit!
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If you are new to horse racing or just need a refresher on how things work with the ponies, no worries.
We have a basic glossary of terms below to help you bet the ponies as we embark on the long road to the Kentucky Derby this weekend with the Grade III Lecomte Stakes on Saturday at Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans.
Stay tuned for complete, in-depth coverage and picks on this year’s Road to the Kentucky Derby from handicappers Andie Biancone and Jeremy Pond, who will provide their detailed thoughts and best bets for the prep races.
Where to Bet on Horse Racing
Some state racing associations, NYRA for example, offer an app for users to place bets. There are OTBs (Off-Track Betting shops) around the states.
You could also go to any race track and bet on the Derby prep races — or any race around the country for that matter. And in some states, there are select bars with betting kiosks. My favorite spot to bet horses is Churchill’s in Rockville Centre, a beautiful village on Long Island.
You’re welcome to stop by any time.
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Types of Bets: Exacta, Trifecta & More
There are plenty of ways to bet on horse racing, and while they are pretty simple once you get the hang of it, you may hear some weird track-slang thrown around. Here’s a quick rundown of the basics:
To Win: A bet on a particular horse to win. Easy enough, right?
To Place: A bet on a particular horse to finish second.
To Show: A wager on a particular horse to finish third.
Win, Place, Show: A bet on a particular horse to win, place (finish second) or show (finish third). In other words, if the horse you bet on finishes first, second or third you win.
Exacta: A bet on two horses to finish first and second, in order. In other words, if you bet an exacta with the No. 12 horse and No. 20 horse and punch in a 12/20 exacta, the No. 12 horse needs to finish first and the No. 20 horse needs to finish second. This is different from an exacta box (defined below). You can bet exactas with more than two horses.
Exacta Box: An exacta wager, but it doesn’t matter which horse finishes first and which finishes second. Example: If you play an exacta box with the No. 12, No. 20 and No. 7 horse and the No. 7 horse finishes first and the No. 20 horse finishes second, you’re a winner. There’s no limit to the number of horses you can place in an exacta box.
Trifecta: A wager picking the first three finishers in exact order. Basically, an exacta with three horses instead of two.
Trifecta Box: Same concept as the exacta box, except with the first three finishers: A trifecta wager where you don’t need your horses to finish in exact order to win. There’s no limit to the number of horses you can place in a trifecta box.
Superfecta: A bet in which you pick four horses to finish first, second, third and fourth in exact order.
After a torrid 11-1-1 stretch, the Nashville Predators have fallen into a four-game lull, most recently suffering a 3-1 home loss against Vancouver on Tuesday. The Predators will look to snap back into stronger form Thursday when they host the in-form Winnipeg Jets.
Winnipeg took a tough loss Tuesday in Washington, but converting more of its Grade A chances won’t get any easier here against goaltender Jussi Saros and the Predators. Will the Jets be able to find a way as road underdogs?
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Winnipeg Jets
Tuesday’s overtime loss in Washington moved the Jets to 4-1-1 over their last 6 contests, in which they’ve yielded a 51.99 xGF% with a markedly high xGF/60 rate of 2.92 in the process.
That’s a strong run of play from a Jets team which has often succeeded with well below average even-strength analytics with this current group, icing some deadly finishers and an elite goaltender in Connor Hellebuyck.
The Jets were probably never destined to be a legitimate Stanley Cup contender, rostering a less-than-stellar defensive unit, but no doubt were underachieving in the time leading up to head coach Paul Maurice giving his surprising resignation. However, they’ve responded well in the time since.
With Mark Scheifele producing more effectively of late with eight points in his last six contests, Pierre-Luc Dubois offering a notable bounce-back season and Adam Lowry posting some very irritating two-way play on the third line, the Jets are notably strong down the middle at the crucial center ice position, even more so should Paul Stastny return in form.
Nikolaj Ehlers will be sidelined, having been injured by a Dmitri Orlov knee on Tuesday, and that’s a massive loss, but I think enough pieces are still there to step up in his absence.
Top prospect Cole Perfetti skated well alongside Kyle Connor and Pierre-Luc Dubois in Washington, posting a 74.7 xGF% and combining for five points including Perfetti’s first NHL marker, and continued strong play from the wildly skilled young winger would be a massive boost.
Hellebuyck is one of only a handful of goaltenders to find consistently excellent form season after season over the last several years, and has done so yet again, posting a +12.9 goals saved above expected rating with a .915 save percentage.
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Nashville Predators
Nashville has been one the league’s most enjoyable stories, led by a trio of veterans offering surprising bounce-back seasons, a traditionally excellent top-two defensive pairings, a number of gritty depth forwards and the dominant play of Juuse Saros.
The result has been some really balanced play, leading to a strong 24-14-3 record.
However, with the excellent play of Mattias Ekholm and Dante Fabbro sidelined against Vancouver, Nashville posted less dominant play than usual, with both stellar defensemen notably absent from the top four on a defense who are normally a massive plus to this team.
The Predators really haven’t given a ton of indication for possible regression, but it does seem like a lot of things have gone as well as can be, and that counting on the trio of veteran forwards in Matt Duchene, Ryan Johansen and Mikael Granlund to post this strong of play all season could be tough.
That said, I really do like the play of this Nashville team, but I would still argue it will see their .622 points % trend downward to an extent moving forward. Saros will start, looking to snap the team’s four-game skid.
After the Predators snuck out a victory over the Avalanche last Tuesday with some favorable luck for their 12th win in 14 contests, I suspected that could be somewhat of a high-water mark in their season and they have followed with four consecutive defeats.
Surely, they’re somewhere in the middle between how poor things have been since then and the excellent results seen before, but with Ekholm and Fabbro missing from their defense, I think this game is closer than the current line indicates between teams I expect to post more comparable winning percentages going forward.
The Jets were notably dangerous again Tuesday in Washington, and ultimately an overtime loss was somewhat of a tough result, but the team has continued to trend into better form of late.
To me, this looks closer to a Pick’em contest, in what figures to be a very tight, hard-fought game featuring two of the league’s very best netminders battling it out in Saros and Hellebuyck.
This is certainly a spot where I would prefer to have the much longer price in a game where I see both teams trending considerably closer results-wise down the stretch, so I like backing the Jets moneyline here at +122 odds.
What a perfect time for New York to launch with online sports betting: The NFL Playoffs are here and continuing this weekend with the Divisional Round, the NBA is in full force, the NHL has nightly action, the college hoops season is heating up, and so much more. Take your pick of sports, and you’ll be able to find a bet at any point you log in to your favorite app.
Just make sure you either use the code on this page or use code ACTIONNEW, or else you won’t be eligible for these offers. Note that the ACTIONNEW code is just for New York users: If you’re in any other state, your Caesars promo code will be ACTIONRF.
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Best Caesars New York Promo Codes for Thursday NBA Action, NFL Playoffs, NHL, and More
Caesars is already becoming a juggernaut in the U.S. as an online sportsbook, casino, poker provider, and more. You’ve likely heard of them already if you’ve ever been to Las Vegas, where they have one of the most iconic casinos right on the strip. They’re now live online in 10-plus states, the most recent of which is the Empire State as of last weekend.
This offer will only last a short time, and it’s the easiest no-brainer in the world. Again, you’re looking at just a few hundred bucks in value from the other books live in New York, whereas Caesars is giving away $300 simply for signing up, and they’ll reward depositing users even more. Don’t overthink this one, and make sure not to wait because it won’t last too long.
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Remember that the money that you receive from Caesars can be used for any sport or bet that you want. If you’re an enthusiast of the NFL, here are the Divisional Round Playoff games this weekend:
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans, Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers, Saturday at 8:15 p.m. ET
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday at 3 p.m. ET
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET
If NBA is your thing, check out today’s slate:
New Orleans Pelicans at New York Knicks, Thursday at 7:30 p.m. ET
Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks, Thursday at 7:30 p.m. ET
Indiana Pacers at Golden State Warriors, Thursday at 10 p.m. ET
Caesars Odds Boosts and Offers for Thursday, Jan. 20
The savings don’t end once you become a user at Caesars. They offer special bets and odds boosts every day. Here are some available now.
Mavericks, Bruins, and Purdue all win: boosted to +475 odds
Memphis, Indiana, UConn, and Cincinnati all win: boosted to +500 odds
Devin Booker, Luka Doncic, and Steph Curry all over 29.5 points: boosted to +1200 odds
Suns, Pelicans, and Warriors all win: boosted to +425 odds
Colorado, UCLA, Washington, and Arizona all win: boosted to +600 odds
Brandon Ingram and RJ Barrett over 50.5 combined points: boosted to +250 odds
Bengals, Packers, Rams, and Chiefs all win: boosted to +1400 odds
Joe Burrow most passing yards this weekend: boosted to +550 odds
Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, and Matthew Stafford each over 2.5 passing TDs: boosted to +1200 odds
The Montreal Canadiens defeated the Dallas Stars, 5-3, as huge underdogs on Tuesday night, but that result was nothing more than a blip in a disastrous season for the Habs.
The Golden Knights have lost three in a row, and it’s hard to come up with a better opponent for a team looking to get off the schneid than the Montreal Canadiens.
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The Habs Have No Identity
This will be a rematch of last years Stanley Cup Semi-Finals, but don’t expect a very close game. The Montreal Canadiens have not been able to find an identity for their team all season long and injuries have decimated this team from Opening Night.
Montreal is last in the NHL in goals per game (2.16), but their underlying metrics do suggest the offense is creating more opportunities than that. What that tells us is that this team lacks the finishing talent to put away the modest amount of opportunities they are creating.
The Habs don’t grade out well defensively, either, as they rank 29th in expected goals allowed, 25th in high-danger scoring chances allowed and 25th in goals allowed at 5-on-5.
Sam Montembeault stood on his head in the victory against Dallas, stopping 48 of 51 shots, but he’s struggled to a .902 save percentage and a -2.3 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in 11 games this season.
Montreal will be without Carey Price, Jake Allen, Shea Weber, Joel Edmundson, Brendan Gallagher, Cole Caufield, Joel Armia and Cedric Paquette in this matchup.
A Get-Right Spot for the Knights
The Golden Knights are usually one of the best teams on home ice in the NHL, but a three-game losing streak in Vegas has pushed their record at The Fortress to 12-10-2.
Despite their recent struggles, this remains one of the league’s best teams when it is at full strength. The Knights rank sixth in goals per game (3.45), sixth in expected goals per 60 minutes (2.7) and eighth in high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (12.04) on the season.
The Knights do allow a high-volume of chances the other way — they’re 20th in expected goals against and 25th in high-danger scoring chances conceded — but Vegas seems happy to play a high-event style and bet on itself to come out ahead.
Robin Lehner has lost his last three starts, but he has been reliable all season long for the Golden Knights. Lehner has a +3.1 Goals Saved Above Expected and a .904 save percentage.
Canadiens vs. Golden Knights Pick
Vegas is in need of a strong bounce back win on home ice after dropping their last three. Montreal has been horrendous all season long and will be completely outmatched in this game. It’s hard to work up the moxie needed for a bet on the Habs and the price is just way too high on the Knights here.
Instead, I think there’s value on the Over/Under as I have a hard time seeing Montreal creating scoring chances in a matchup where they’ll be overmatched. There’s always the danger of Vegas putting up a crooked number, but they’ll need to do the heavy lifting if this game is to get over the total.
The over/under for the Rams-Bucs game is sitting at around 49 points at BetMGM. And you only need seven (well, technically six) to win $200 with this promo!
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Last week, Georgia defeated Alabama in the National Championship game. Not only was that a historic result, but it had an earthquake-like effect on the subconscious of the nation.
Everyone has now officially turned their heads toward college hoops.
Well, that happens to correspond with the midway point of the season. And during this time, Stuckey typically comes out with his college basketball update for everyone who was too busy betting college football to follow hoops during the fall (coming soon).
Well, I thought we could also dig into the major betting trends happening across the sport. So, I analyzed the most unusual, profitable and avoidable betting trends from the season so far, while looking into whether following or fading those would be strong indicators of things to come.
Without further ado, let’s dig into the top college basketball trends from the first half of the season.
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Best Team ATS
Ladies and gentlemen, your top college basketball team ATS from the first half of the season is the Auburn Tigers.
Auburn has ripped its way from being ranked 22nd in the preseason to No. 2. That meteoric rise has coincided with covering spreads. This streak includes going 12-3 ATS as a favorite and 9-2 ATS at home.
That’s right, Auburn has been an underdog just twice this season, splitting the ATS results. Given the Tigers are ranked No. 2, I wouldn’t expect them to be underdogs in many more spots — KenPom doesn’t have them projected as an underdog until Feb. 26 at Tennessee — but it’s worth noting they’ve been untested in that spot.
Bruce Pearl is 68-64-1 ATS as an underdog in his career, for a modest +0.92 units of profit. But, he’s a lousy 14-18 ATS as a home dog in his career.
So, if Auburn somehow ends up there this season, keep that in mind.
Here’s the list of the top-10 ATS teams in college basketball so far this season.
Team
ATS Record
Profit (Units)
Auburn
14-3-0
+9.61
Middle Tennessee
11-2-0
+7.94
Wisconsin
12-3-0
+7.89
Davidson
12-3-0
+7.87
Monmouth
11-3-0
+7.03
California
13-5-0
+6.95
Oakland
12-4-0
+6.86
Fresno State
11-4-0
+5.99
Toledo
12-5-0
+5.88
Louisiana Tech
9-3-0
+5.30
Worst Team ATS
Ladies and gentlemen, your bottom college basketball team ATS from the first half of the season is the Pacific Tigers.
Your WCC Tigers are 5-11 overall, but have started conference play 0-2. Their one quality win this season is against UC Santa Barbara. They beat the Gauchos at home in overtime, and UCSB currently checks in at No. 152 in KenPom.
In its 1-12 ATS start, Pacific has failed to cover by an average margin of 6.58 points.
But listen to this: ShotQuality’s metrics project the Tigers for a monstrous amount of positive shooting regression. In fact, the scientists over at SQ project Pacific should be 6-10 instead of 5-11, based on the quality of shots it produces and allows.
Therefore, it’d be wise to target Pacific going forward.
The Tigers are projected to be one-point home dogs against KenPom No. 188 San Diego on Saturday, and then three-point road dogs against KenPom No. 248 Portland next Thursday. I think we love those spots.
Here’s the list of the top-10 worst ATS teams so far this season.
Team
ATS Record
Profit (Units)
Pacific
1-12-0
-10.11
Drake
3-13-0
-9.27
Idaho State
2-11-0
-9.24
Wright State
4-12-0
-8.37
North Dakota
4-12-0
-8.32
Nevada
3-11-0
-8.28
Northern Kentucky
2-10-0
-8.17
Marshall
2-10-0
-8.15
North Dakota State
4-11-0
-7.37
Southern Utah
3-10-0
-7.32
I’d like to quickly pick on Drake.
The Bulldogs were every gambler’s darling last season. Drake covered in its first 13 games and finished the season 20-5 ATS for over 13.5 units of profit and a 54.1% ROI.
At 3-11 ATS, the Bulldogs have totally underperformed this year. While I picked them to win the MVC in the preseason, I’ve quickly pivoted to Loyola Chicago.
Meanwhile, Monmouth covered in its first 10 games this season. So, maybe remember this story when staring at Monmouth -2 at Fairfield.
The Underdog Report
Speaking of Monmouth, the Hawks are your top underdog team ATS so far this season.
Here’s the list of the top-10 underdog teams ATS so far this season.
Team
ATS Record as Underdogs
Profit (Units)
Monmouth
6-0-0
+5.49
Idaho
10-4-0
+5.14
Towson
5-0-0
+4.54
Kansas State
6-1-1
+4.45
Troy
7-2-0
+4.45
Portland
7-2-0
+4.33
Iowa State
7-2-0
+4.32
New Mexico
8-3-0
+4.19
Chicago State
11-6-0
+4.03
North Texas
4-0-0
+3.68
In case you missed it: betting unranked teams at home against ranked teams has been a cash cow this season.
However, this trend started 14-1 ATS this season. Therefore, it’s been basically a coin flip since. It’s always a solid spot to bet, but I’d tread lightly in the future.
Speaking of another solid spot to bet: it’s been a rollercoaster betting home dogs this season.
On Jan. 2, betting every home dog in college hoops this season would’ve netted you over 7.5 units of profit. But betting every home dog since then — in just the past few weeks — would’ve cost you 15.5 units.
Tracking money won or lost betting on home underdogs throughout the course of the 2021-22 season. Graph created automatically by BetLabs.
Given the variance in betting college hoops, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a huge bounce-back for home dogs in the coming month.
Best Overs Team
I don’t know why this happened — perhaps it has something to do with COVID protocols causing poor defensive play — but scoring in college hoops saw a huge surge recently.
Four points per game might not seem like a whole lot. But look at the effect it had on college basketball overs during that Dec. 20 to Jan. 10 period.
Tracking money won or lost betting on only overs throughout the course of the 2021-22 season. Graph created automatically by BetLabs.
Now, unders are the hot play again. Scoring has seemed to normalize, so I’m unsure why we aren’t seeing closer to a 50/50 split in totals over the past week. But perhaps the market overreacted a tad to the month-long boom.
I can’t predict if we’ll see another scoring boom-and-bust like this again. But I’m sure water will find its level.
Anyway, here are the top-10 overs teams in college hoops so far this season.
Team
Overs Record
Profit (Units)
Delaware
12-1-0
+9.97
Northern Iowa
11-2-0
+7.99
East Carolina
10-2-0
+7.18
Northeastern
13-3-0
+7.10
Bowling Green
11-3-0
+7.01
UMass
10-3-1
+6.11
Alabama
12-5-0
+5.82
Oregon
11-5-0
+5.15
Illinois State
10-4-0
+5.14
New Mexico
10-4-1
+5.11
Watching Northern Iowa games are so funny. Every single game just devolves into a shooting contest.
Northern Iowa ranks 52nd in 3-point rate (44.3% 3PA/FGA) while also having the third-highest opponent 3-point rate (50.4% 3PA/FGA). Moreover, Northern Iowa is 121st in 3-point percentage (34.5%) while ranking 286th in 3-point defense (35.8%).
The electric AJ Green and the UNI offense will bomb from deep on you. But the Panthers will also allow you to bomb from deep on them. It’s awesome.
There was a total of 56 3s taken in UNI’s most recent game against Valpo — a 3-point overtime loss for the Panthers. The teams combined to make 39.2% of them, finishing with 163 points after the total closed at 137.
In fact, Northern Iowa has gone over the total at an average margin of 11.19 points.
But that’s Panthers basketball! And don’t expect it to change any time soon.
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Best Unders Team
Believe it or not: Eastern Illinois is 12-0 to the under this season.
Who are the Eastern Illinois Panthers?
Just the second-worst offense in the nation. Literally. The Panthers rank second-to-last in both offensive efficiency (85) and points per game (55.8). They also rank 286th in tempo and can somewhat competently defend, which is ideal for betting unders.
Recently, the Panthers held the 10th highest-scoring offense in the nation, Murray State, to just 72 points. That’s over 10 points lower than the Racers’ season average (82.6 PPG).
In fact, Eastern Illinois has gone under the total at an average margin of 10.17 points.
But that’s Panthers basketball! And don’t expect it to change anytime soon.
Here’s the list of the top-10 unders teams in college hoops so far this season.
Team
Unders Record
Profit (Units)
Eastern Illinois
12-0-0
+10.93
LSU
12-2-0
+8.87
Kent State
11-3-0
+6.91
South Carolina
11-3-0
+6.87
Arizona State
11-3-0
+6.79
Air Force
9-2-0
+6.16
San Diego State
10-3-0
+5.91
Southern Illinois
11-4-0
+5.91
Boise State
11-4-0
+5.83
UC-Irvine
7-1-1
+5.37
It’s worth touching on LSU, which is college basketball’s biggest mystery.
LSU currently paces the nation in defensive efficiency (81.2). The Tigers also pace the nation in PPP allowed (0.716) and defensive eFG% (41.6%).
The Tigers have a deadly interior defense, and they will absolutely crush you if you’re a motion-based offense. The Tigers rank above the 95th percentile in cutting PPP allowed, pick-and-roll PPP allowed and post-up PPP allowed.
But this is where things get wild.
LSU allows the fifth-highest opponent 3-point rate (47.9% 3PA/FGA), but is also second in 3-point defense (26%). LSU also allows 42.7% of catch-and-shoot opportunities to come unguarded.
Just look at these shot charts:
Image credit: CBB Analytics
LSU allows an above-average 3-point rate from every region behind the arc, but opponents are shooting way below average in every area.
This is wildly unsustainable and teams will not continue to brick every open 3-point attempt they have.
In the future, I’m hopping on the fade LSU and LSU overs train. But we’ve been expecting regression for weeks and it has yet to arrive, which worries me considerably.
Best And Worst Conference ATS
Author’s note: Because conference play started around the new year, every conference has gone exactly 50% ATS in conference games (obviously). Therefore, this only reflects how each conference performed during non-conference play, and the money won or lost will be slightly deflated due to the juice during conference games. The average margin of money lost is about three units.
The Big 12 has been very solid all season.
It’s also the best conference in college basketball. ESPN’s bracketologist Joe Lunardi currently projects that eight of the 10 conference teams will make the tournament this season, and Baylor is likely to still grab one of the four top seeds.
Here’s the list of the top five conferences ATS so far this season.
Conference
ATS Record
Profit (Units)
Big 12
73-60-4
+6.13
CAA
63-53-2
+5.34
Atlantic 10
95-81-1
+5.25
MAAC
68-57-0
+4.77
Southern
64-54-2
+4.02
Meanwhile, the ACC is a dumpster fire.
After Duke’s road loss against Florida State, Miami (FL) currently holds the top spot in the conference at 6-1 — something everyone expected.
Despite many begging for a one-bid ACC this season, it’s likely the conference will still get three or four teams into March Madness.
Here’s the list of the bottom five conferences ATS so far this season.
Conference
ATS Record
Profit (Units)
ACC
91-118-2
-35.35
Pac-12
80-89-8
-16.55
Horizon
73-82-1
-15.52
Summit
69-76-1
-13.25
Big Sky
67-73-3
-12.12
Perhaps it would be wise to keep these two lists in mind when the tournament rolls around — in case a CAA team matches up with an ACC team.
The Stars continue their four-game road trip as they travel to Detroit to take on the Red Wings on Friday.
Detroit is searching for its third straight win as it returns to Little Caesars Arena, looking to avenge its 5-2 loss to Dallas back in November.
Can the young players in Detroit pull off the win, or will this more experienced Dallas team prove to be too much to handle once again?
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Dallas Stars
The Stars enter this game on the second half of a back-to-back, playing their third game in four nights. That many games in a short stretch is impactful halfway through the season for any team, let alone an older Dallas squad.
The Stars have flat out stunk on the road, as 13 of their 18 losses have come away from Dallas. More recently, the Stars have lost nine of their last 10 road games with that lone win coming against one of the league’s worst teams in Arizona, which started its backup goaltender.
With Braden Holtby starting Wednesday night, we should expect to see Jake Oettinger in net for Dallas tonight. While Oettinger is a promising young goaltender who should be the guy in Dallas for years to come, his performance has started to slide lately.
Oettinger has allowed nine goals in his past two starts, including five goals on 19 shots against the Canadiens, who are one of the league’s worst offenses.
As a whole, the underlying numbers are not terrific for Oettinger this season either. He ranks just 20th amongst starting goalies in 5-on-5 goals saved above expected (GSAx) per 60 minutes.
While we know about Dallas’ woes away from home, the opposite rings true for the Red Wings. The Red Wings have seen 13 of their 18 wins this season at their home barn, including nine of their last 13.
Since returning to the Detroit front office in 2019, Red Wings legend Steve Yzerman has done a great job rebuilding this roster. There’s loads of young talent on this team, specifically with future stars Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider.
One advantage of having a young roster is speed and explosiveness, and I expect to see that come into play tonight following a three-day break.
Another strong acquisition for Yzerman has been young goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic.
Nedeljkovic has been great in net recently, allowing only 12 total goals in his last six starts. While the majority of those games were against poor offensive teams, Dallas also struggles in the offensive zone, as it ranks 19th in 5-on-5 expected goals per 60 minutes (xGF).
Red Wings vs. Stars Pick
The underlying metrics suggest that these teams’ offenses are relatively equal, while the Stars have the advantage in 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA), as they rank 11 spots higher than Detroit.
The Stars may have a defensive edge, but I think the Red Wings as home dogs is the betting angle to attack. Both offenses rank similarly, the Red Wings have the goaltender edge, and the Red Wings have the home-ice advantage.
Give me the more rested team with the better goalie at home as an underdog.
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Below are the projected starting lineups for each team playing on Thursday’s NBA slate, along with notable injury news for each squad. For real-time injury updates, check out our FantasyLabs NBA news page.
NBA Injury News
Devonte’ Graham is questionable with a sore left ankle ahead of the New Orleans Pelicans’ lone visit to Madison Square Garden.
Recently acquired New York Knick Cam Reddish has been ruled out again with an ankle sprain and Nerlens Noel remains out with left knee soreness that has hampered him all season.
Deandre Ayton remains out for the Suns after suffering an ankle sprain against the Detroit Pistons on Sunday. Ayton has already missed one game this week with the injury and JaVale McGee and Bismack Biyombo will fill in at center.
Stephen Curry is not listed on the injury report after injuring his finger in their previous game, but Otto Porter Jr. will rest with a sore foot.
Domantas Sabonis has been ruled out of Thursday’s game after spraining his ankle on Wednesday against the Los Angeles Lakers. Malcolm Brogdon, who has dealt with a sore Achilles all season, is questionable on the second night of a back-to-back. Caris LeVert is also questionable with a sore right calf.
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Projected Starting Lineups
New Orleans Pelicans vs. New York Knicks (7:30 p.m. ET)
Pelicans Projected Lineup
PG – Devonte’ Graham
SG – Brandon Ingram
SF – Josh Hart
PF – Herbert Jones
C – Jonas Valanciunas
Injury news: Devonte’ Graham (Ankle) is questionable
Knicks Projected Lineup
PG – Kemba Walker
SG – Evan Fournier
SF – RJ Barrett
PF – Julius Randle
C – Mitchell Robinson
Injury news: Cam Reddish (Ankle) and Nerlens Noel (Knee) are out
Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks (7:30 p.m. ET)
Suns Projected Lineup
PG – Chris Paul
SG – Devin Booker
SF – Mikal Bridges
PF – Jae Crowder
C – JaVale McGee
Injury news: Deandre Ayton (Ankle) is out
Mavericks Projected Lineup
PG – Luka Doncic
SG – Jalen Brunson
SF – Dorian Finney-Smith
PF – Maxi Kleber
C – Kristaps Porzingis
Injury news: Sterling Brown (Foot) is out
Indiana Pacers vs. Golden State Warriors (10 p.m. ET)
Pacers Projected Lineup
PG – Malcolm Brogdon
SG – Caris LeVert
SF – Justin Holiday
PF – Torrey Craig
C – Goga Bitadze
Injury news: Malcolm Brogdon (Achilles) and Caris LeVert (Calf) are questionable; Domantas Sabonis (Ankle) is out
Warriors Projected Lineup
PG – Stephen Curry
SG – Klay Thompson
SF – Andrew Wiggins
PF – Jonathan Kuminga
C – Kevon Looney
Injury news: Draymond Green (Back) and Otto Porter Jr. (Foot) are out
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There’s heavy sharp action on Suns vs. Mavericks tonight.
This will be the most high-profile game on the NBA docket. The Suns are No. 1 in the West and haven’t lost a step since making the Finals last season. And the Mavericks are always exciting with Luka Doncic on the floor.
Normally, you’d want to target regular season NBA games of lower magnitude, where you can extract value without the broader public catching on. And there are a ton of those contests swimming around.
But for tonight’s game, there are too many signals to pass up on.
Read further to see where the smart money is going for tonight’s NBA on TNT matchup.
Suns vs. Mavericks Smart Money Betting Picks
The smart money is all over the Suns to cover. The sharps are also hammering the over.
An absurd 96% of sharp money was on the Suns at -1.5. It was enough to move the line to Suns -3. The best price on the market is with Caesars Sportsbook at Suns -2.5.
A likewise absurd 87% of sharp money was on the game to go over 213 points. That line has moved to a market consensus of 216.5.
Oddly, the sharps and retail bettors are aligned on this contest. The public is rocking with the Suns to cover and the over, too.
Smart Money PRO Pick: Suns -2.5 or better | Over 216.5 or better.
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The Bruins host the Capitals in an Eastern Conference bout Thursday night at TD Garden in Boston. It’ll be the second time these two teams square off against each other, as the Bruins pulled off a convincing 7-3 victory a week and a half ago.
Since coming out of the Christmas pause, Washington has played shaky hockey at best. It’s gone 4-4-2 in its last 10 but still holds strong on its playoff spot. Every team has a spell during the season when they’re not playing their best, but the Caps will manage their way out of it. If .500 hockey is the worst it’ll get, there shouldn’t be much worry.
On the contrary, the pause may have been the best thing for the Bruins. In their last 10 games, the B’s boast an 8-2 record even after getting pummeled by the Hurricanes Tuesday night.
Their game against the Canes is most likely an aberration, as Boston is playing its best hockey all season and has its eyes set on the playoffs.
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Washington Capitals
You’d be hard-pressed to find a team with more offensive firepower than the Capitals.
They’re consistently a threat to score three or more goals a night. With a team led by Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Tom Wilson, and John Carlson, what else would you expect?
The problem is, they will be without Carlson, Conor Sheary, Anthony Mantha, and potentially TJ Oshie in this matchup. Missing those key pieces is likely what has kept Washington from thriving after Christmas, and once they return, I expect the dry spell to end.
Washington has been exceptional all season generating plays. It’s a top-10 team in expected goals per 60 minutes with a 2.86 xGF and is the 11th-best at creating high danger chances.
It’s rather surprising how poor it is on the power play, though, since Ovechkin is such a threat. They’re scoring at only a 15.5% clip — the fifth-worst mark in the league.
The Caps bode fairly well on the defensive end. They allow a decent amount of goals and high danger chances, but not enough to be concerned about.
In net, the goalie carousel will never be easy to figure out. All season, Vitek Vanecek and Ilya Samsonov have split the starts and have handled it fairly well.
Vanecek has received the majority of the starts recently, so I expect Samsonov to take the crease. The Russian netminder has posted a .903 SV% and a poor -3.3 GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected).
Vanecek, meanwhile, has been mildly superior with a .911 SV% and a -1.3 GSAx. Either way, I don’t think whoever is in net will make a difference, as they’ve played a similar game all season.
Many thought the Bruins would be an afterthought after an incredibly mediocre start to the season. After Christmas, their top players have stepped up and silenced that chatter.
Brad Marchand is playing out of his mind, while David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron, and Taylor Hall are all contributing behind him.
With all of this newfound success, the Bruins keep climbing the rankings in expected goals per 60. They currently stand at 13th with a 2.54 xGF but haven’t created as many high danger chances as they’d like to, standing at 22nd league-wide.
With that Perfection Line of Bergeron, Marchand and Pastrnak, though, the power play has been humming as they score at a 23.6% rate, which is good enough for eighth in the league.
Boston is one of the elite defensive teams. It allows the least amount of high danger chances out of all teams, and it gives up the sixth-fewest goals.
Tuukka Rask is back in the black and gold, but I wouldn’t expect to see him back after Tuesday’s demolition. That would leave Linus Ullmark, who has performed pretty well in net.
The Swede started slow this year, but he’s managed a decent .917 SV% and a 0.1 GSAx. It seems like Ullmark is getting comfortable in Beantown, and having the veteran Rask backing him up could bode well for his future there.
Capitals vs. Bruins Pick
As deadly as Washington’s top players are, I don’t think it can be enough to penetrate the Bruins’ stifling defense. Teams need depth to slow down and frustrate teams, and Washington is missing key parts that contribute to its depth.
It could be a good game, to say the least, but I see the B’s taking this in front of their home crowd.
Chattanooga will head to Greensboro on Thursday in hopes of moving to 5-1 in Southern Conference play.
In its last game, Chattanooga snapped an eight-game skid to Furman. The 71-69 win over the Paladins moved the Mocs into first place in the SoCon and put them at 14-4 on the season.
Chattanooga’s success has been largely due to the efforts of Malachi Smith, who leads the SoCon with 21.5 points per game.
UNC Greensboro, meanwhile, is looking to snap a two-game losing streak and add to its recent success against Chattanooga. The Spartans have won six of the last eight over Chattanooga, including a season sweep last year.
The Mocs have not won in Greensboro since 2015-16. Overall, they are 15-8 at home in the series, 9-13 away, and 3-7 over the last 10.
UNCG, however, dropped back-to-back conference road games last week — one to The Citadel on Thursday and one at Mercer on Saturday. It now sits at 2-3 in conference play.
But the Spartans should be looking forward to the return home, as they have lost just one game at the Greensboro Coliseum all season and have consistently performed better in games at the friendly confines.
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Chattanooga Mocs
Chattanooga has been better than most when it comes to offense on the season, ranking 64th in the country in shooting percentage at 46.1%. It also ranks 96th in college basketball, averaging 73.7 points per game.
And while the two teams rank fairly evenly in 3-point shooting, the Mocs should have an advantage when it comes to shots from outside the arc, as they average more made 3-pointers per game.
The Mocs also have a considerable advantage in transition, as they rank 88th in the country in transition offense and defense. UNCG, meanwhile, ranks 322nd.
When it comes to rebounding, Chattanooga hasn’t been as efficient as the Spartans. However, when it can pull down rebounds, it’s been great at making the most of second-chance opportunities, ranking 51st in the country in second-chance conversion percentage.
The offensive and rebounding advantages have come via two of the top three scorers for the Mocs. Smith is the leading scorer in the Southern Conference, and Kansas transfer Silvio De Sousa leads the team with 7.5 rebounds per game.
On defense, the Mocs should have a slight advantage over UNCG, as they’re allowing opponents to average 65.5 points per game.
They’ve also been dominant at limiting opposing teams’ rebounds. The Mocs rank 12th in the country in opposing team rebounds, allowing only 30.1 per game.
Chattanooga moved to 5-1 this season when trailing at halftime following Saturday’s 38-33 deficit to Furman at the break. The Mocs are also a perfect 13-0 this season when leading with five minutes left.
The UNCG offense will likely be at a disadvantage when matched up against the Chattanooga defense.
Chattanooga ranks 127th in the nation in defensive efficiency, while UNCG is just 283rd in offensive efficiency. The Spartans have also struggled to find rhythm shooting the ball, sitting 268th in field goal conversion.
Around the basket, they’re coming down with 37.3 rebounds per game, but I don’t expect that to continue against Chattanooga, which has a serious advantage when it comes to height.
The Spartans are also one of the weaker D-I teams at converting second-chance opportunities, ranking 306th.
Turnovers have been a lingering issue for UNCG as well. It’s the 286th-worst team in the country in that area, giving the ball away 14.4 times per game. Its rating for potential points allowed off of steals is even worse, ranking 341st in the country.
On the defensive side, opposing teams have averaged a shooting percentage of just 39.8% against the Spartans. They have also been able to limit opponents to just 63 points per game, good for 33rd nationally.
The Spartans will be able to hold Chattanooga to less than their average of 73 points per contest, but the defense won’t be the biggest reason why.
It’s because this game, in all likelihood, will move at one of the slowest paces we’ve seen in college basketball all year. UNCG is the eighth-slowest team in the nation, ranking 351st in adjusted tempo. Chattanooga isn’t much faster, sitting at 331st.
Chattanooga vs. UNC Greensboro Betting Pick
Chattanooga is the much better team between these two, and while it’s coming off of a massive win over Furman — a team it had not beaten in its last eight tries — the difference UNCG has shown on its home court cannot be ignored.
But even with that advantage, I think this spread is too low for the Mocs, and I expect them to continue their domination of the SoCon.
Their ability to make the most of second-chance points — along with how much better they have been shooting the ball — will be the biggest factor when it comes to a game that is played this slow.
I got the Mocs at -3.5 and would take them as high as a 5-point favorite.
Sharp bettors and the general public are split for the heavyweight title bout between Francis Ngannou and Ciryl Gane at UFC 270.
Ngannou, the defending champion, opened as the betting favorite and has taken the majority of bets at BetMGM. However, with big money supporting Gane, the line has flipped making the champion the underdog in the days before the match.
Ngannou is now +125 from his opening number of -115. The winner of five consecutive fights, Ngannou will defend his title for the first time since defeating Stipe Miocic in March via second round knockout.
_PromoID=[5113, 13295, 13428]
Prior to the win over Miocic, Ngannou stopped Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Junior Dos Santos, Cain Velasquez and Curtis Blades. Those wins followed a loss to Miocic in his first title chance and an embarrassing performance against Derrick Lewis.
Only 36% of bets are on the challenger, but with 65% of total dollars on Gane, he’s moved to -150 from his opening number of -105. Gane, technically the interim heavyweight champion after a win over Lewis in August, is undefeated in seven UFC fights. He has two wins via submission, two knockouts and three by unanimous decision.
Elsewhere on the card, early money is on Brandon Moreno (-175) to defend his title in the trilogy fight against Deiveson Figueiredo (+145).
Bettors and dollars are aligned on the other three underdogs on the main card of the pay-per-view. Andre Fialho (+250), Cody Stamann (+170) and Wellington Turman (+225) all have more bets and dollars in their favor than their respective opponents in Michael Pereira (-300), Said Nurmagomedov (-200) and Rodolfo Veira (-300).
Colorado vs. USC is one of the best basketball rivalries no one knows about. Andy Enfield and Tad Boyle do not like each other — and that’s putting it mildly.
It stemmed from a game in 2018 in which Enfield had called a timeout with seconds left on the clock while his team was up 12. Boyle had made comments during that week about USC’s FBI investigation into basketball recruiting that Enfield apparently did not take a liking to.
USC hasn’t beaten Colorado since that game. The Buffs have won the last seven games between these two teams and are 6-1 against the spread during that stretch.
The Trojans were one of three undefeated teams remaining just a couple of weeks ago. Since then, they’ve lost two of their last three with the two losses coming against Stanford and Oregon.
The Buffs are off to a 4-2 start in Pac-12 play with the two losses coming on the road against the top two teams in the Pac-12 — Arizona and UCLA.
Games between these two teams do not lack entertainment, and The Action Network has a PRO System play on one side.
USC vs. Colorado Pick
Despite all of the recent history of this matchup, the public still loves the Trojans in this game. USC is receiving 82% of the public bets and a whopping 94% of the money.
We have a PRO system called “Fade the Public in Big Conferences” that has hit at a 57% rate over the last 15-plus years with an 11% return on investment.
It identifies teams that are playing in regular-season conference games and getting between 0% to 24% of the public action.
It goes without saying — the system likes the Buffs tonight.
The Stars head in to Buffalo desperately seeking a rare road win. A shocking 5-2 home loss to the lowly Canadiens Tuesday extended their deficit in the Western Wild Card race.
A regulation win here would go a long ways to keeping Dallas’ thin playoff hopes alive, increasing their chances to still just 16.4% (according to our friends at MoneyPuck).
Will Dallas be able to snap their seven-game road losing streak here against the Sabres?
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Dallas Stars
For Coach Rick Bowness, the Stars’ shocking home and road splits have been a large point of contention, and it’s easy to see that even a modest road record would have the Stars currently holding a Wild Card spot.
Dallas seemed to respond to their coach’s critical comments towards the team’s awful road play in Tampa. They hung tough in the second leg of the brutal Florida back-to-back before falling late for a 3-1 final after an empty netter.
The effort would be viewed as a positive, if the club didn’t follow it up with an awful home defeat to Montreal, even if a 5.90 to 3.23 Expected Goals game score suggests things could have gone differently.
The loss of Jason Robertson from the last two contests from the Stars’ ridiculously strong top line alongside Roope Hintz and Joe Pavelski has been notable, but that’s far from an excuse for Tuesday’s performance.
With Bowness’ contract expiring this year, it’s possible we could see a shakeup should the Stars’ inconsistent play continue.
A 49.74 xGF% on the month seems to be just a fair indication of what the Stars are — a borderline playoff club, consistent with their season long mark of 50.17 (14th). But that’s far better than the Sabres have fared of late.
Robertson did take the morning skate Tuesday and is questionable for this one. Alex Radulov could also likely return here.
It’s unclear whether the Stars will look towards Braden Holtby or Jake Oettinger for this one. Holtby holds a +2.1 Goals Saved Above Expected rating and .920 Save %, and Oettinger a +0.4 GSAx and .905 Save %.
Both have been solid, and the difference between the two is marginal. Oettinger has been stronger than those current numbers indicate, and consequently, I’m not overly concerned with wagering before the decision.
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Buffalo Sabres
The Sabres have stabilized over a 2-1-1 stretch, and with Alex Tuch sitting at a point per game in seven contests with the club, there are some positives right now for the Sabres.
However, a 33.09 xGF% over that span is simply dismal, and whether you put much stock in that number or not, it’s hard to argue they haven’t lucked their way into a small sample of better results.
And even still, that 2-1-1 record and 33.09 xGF% come against the likes of Detroit (x2), Ottawa, and Nashville. It is concerning that in three games against notably soft competition (considering how hard Detroit have dropped off of late), the Sabres have still posted a shockingly low control of play at even strength.
Over a bigger sample of 10 games, Buffalo is still holding a comparably poor 37.64 xGF% rate. This recent 2-1-1 stretch looks seems to be a stretch of more favorable puck-luck in a notably close league.
To expect the Sabres to continue to post results even around NHL .500 with their glaring roster flaws seems unwarranted, and I think this price sets up as a good spot to fade them.
Michael Houser was strong in his season debut against Ottawa but still is a well below average NHL option. He has posted a .900 Save % in 11 AHL starts this season and an .876 Save % in three ECHL starts.
It’s unclear whether he or Aaron Dell will start here, but neither is a strong option. Dell holds a -4.9 GSAx rating and an .892 Save % this season.
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Sabres vs. Stars Pick
I love this as a spot for the Stars to come out and bounce-back (after an embarrassing defeat to Montreal) against a Buffalo squad which has posted some shockingly poor play-driving numbers this month.
The Star’ seven-game road losing streak by no means makes it more likely the Stars are “due” to win one, but with that treacherous stretch etched in the team’s mind, we should see them come out motivated to finally end that streak in a very winnable situation.
An effort similar to what we saw in the 3-1 loss to Tampa after coach Bowness’ comments on the awful road play should do the trick here, or in the controversial 2-1 loss to St. Louis. Furthermore, I like the chances the Stars win comfortably here.
Dallas holds a notable goaltending edge with Oettinger/Holtby over either of Michael Houser or Aaron Dell, and the Stars are still holding league average play-driving rates compared to Buffalo’s 33.26 xGF% this month.
Should Jason Robertson draw back in the for the contest, it will offer a notable boost to the Stars’ value of a +110 price to win in regulation. Even should he sit, I’m very comfortable with that line and backing the Stars to find a win inside regulation from a pure lottery team here.
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All three games on Thursday’s NBA slate are loaded with value — at least according to our tools.
The Pelicans-Knicks tilt fits a 63%-winning system in our betting database, while sharp bettors are hitting the Mavericks-Suns clash.
Thursday’s Pacers-Warriors matchup, meanwhile, is the late-night game. And our projections clearly disagree with the current market spread.
Is Golden State in a solid spot with Indiana on the second of a back-to-back, or is the public underrating the road side?
Here’s the big edge to close out the evening.
Pacers-Warriors PRO Pick
When we run our PRO numbers, we recommend bettors take at least a Grade of B — or a 3.5% edge — before considering a wager based solely on projections.
Our PRO Report makes Indiana just +8 for Thursday’s game, which translates to a 7.6% edge and A- grade. It’s well off the market number of +11 and absolutely in playable range.
The Pacers have flopped on the road (4-17 straight-up in last 21) but they’ve performed oddly well on zero days rest, covering 11 of the last 13 on the second night of a back-to-back.
Although Indiana’s 13 games under .500 entering Thursday, the franchise has played the fourth-toughest schedule to date.
It won’t be a popular pick; the Warriors are getting north of 80% of the tickets and 94% of the money at the time of writing.
However, projections have no problem endorsing the road team in a game our numbers believe should be lined in the single-digit range.
The Titans take on the red-hot Bengals in the Divisional Round of the 2022 NFL playoffs this week. Cincinnati has won four straight (not counting Week 18 in which they rested their starters), including wins over the Chiefs and Raiders. The Titans had an easier go of it down the stretch, holding onto the AFC’s top seed with wins over the Dolphins and Texans
This game also likely features the long-awaited return of Derrick Henry. Securing the top seed was crucial for the Titans, as it allowed them to get their star runner back. Henry hasn’t played since Halloween but should be a major boost to the Titans offense.
Oddsmakers have the Titans as slight favorites, as questions about Henry’s effectiveness play a major role in handicapping this game. Will the Titans have enough firepower to keep up with the Bengals’ explosive offense?
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Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Bengals vs. Titans Injury Report
We’re tracking practice participation and statuses of every player on the Bengals’ and Titans’ injury reports here.
Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.
Bengals Getting Their Stripes
The Bengals offense finally lived up to its preseason hype down the stretch, with Joe Burrow looking like the next superstar NFL quarterback. He finished the season with the best Adjusted Yards per Attempt of any quarterback in the NFL despite playing behind the league’s 31st-ranked offensive line (by Adjusted Sack Rate).
Of course, throwing to (arguably) the best trio of receivers in the league makes life much easier for a quarterback. Ja’Marr Chase broke the rookie record for receiving yards, Tee Higgins had a great sophomore campaign, and Tyler Boyd continues to be a reliable option in the slot. Chase and Higgins were both top 10 receivers by PFF grade this season, and Boyd ranked a respectable 46th.
The Bengals’ ground game is solid as well, with Joe Mixon ranking third in rushing yards and fourth in rushing touchdowns on the season. Neither unit stands out from a DVOA standpoint, but that’s misleading.
The Bengals offense averaged roughly 26 points through the first half of the season. In the second half (including playoffs, not including Week 18), they’re averaging over 29. This is a team hitting its stride at the perfect time.
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Titans Getting Their Star Back
The Titans are hoping they hit their stride at the right time as well, thanks to the return of their top offensive players. Ryan Tannehill only had the trio of Derrick Henry, Julio Jones and AJ Brown available for 11% of his dropbacks this season. He averaged 9.4 yards per attempt during that time — better than Burrow’s league-leading 8.9.
He was fairly mediocre the rest of the time and downright bad with all three missing from the lineup. Fortunately for the Titans, all three should be back in the lineup — though Henry is officially questionable, he got in a full contact practice on Tuesday. They should have no problem putting up points against the 19th-ranked Bengals defense in this one.
Of course, Henry is the real story. He ranks ninth in the NFL in rushing yards despite only playing half a season. The next closest player to play fewer than 10 games ranks 41st.
It’s also a winnable matchup on the defensive side of the ball. The Titans defense is ranked 12th by DVOA, but more importantly Tennessee possesses a solid pass rush. The Titans rank 10th in Adjusted Sack Rate on defense and should be able to get after Joe Burrow behind a bad Bengals line. That limits how long the secondary has to cover Chase, Higgins and Boyd.
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Bengals vs. Titans Predictions
The 3.5-point spread with the Titans at home suggests these teams are roughly evenly matched. However, the Titans rank seven spots better in defensive DVOA, and only two spots worse in offensive DVOA — despite missing key pieces for most of the year. They also won two more games than the Bengals and have a 7-3 home record.
The week of rest is important for the Titans as well. Cincinnati was able to rest some starters in Week 18, but that’s not the same as having a bye week for the whole team.
This would make the Titans a solid value here, even if their season-long averages were representative of the team. They aren’t though, particularly on offense. I’ll take the Titans -3.5, and I’d bet it down to -4.5.
In order for you to not win with this promo, the Knicks would have to lose to the Zion-less Pelicans (currently 13th in the West) by … 201 points. Yeah, not possible.
If you haven’t heard of FanDuel’s “Spread the Love” promos before, here’s how it works: The more bettors that join in the action, the better the line gets for everyone! Plus, all bettors will receive the final enhanced spread, no matter what it was when you placed your bet.
Bet up to $50 on the “Spread the Love” enhanced spread for the Knicks vs. Pelicans game
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Patrick Mahomes racked up 30 completions in a Wild Card win last weekend, while Josh Allen completed 21 passes (including five TDs) in the Bills’ blowout victory.
And if your QB has ONE completion at Arrowhead Stadium, you win big.
Bet $20 on the Chiefs vs. Bills game as your FIRST bet (use the regular NFL market)
Note: You can bet on any NFL team this weekend and win $205 if that team completes a pass. This game, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are being used as examples.
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Bet $10 on the Chiefs or Bills moneyline as your FIRST bet
Note: You can place any first-time moneyline wager of $10+ and be rewarded with $220 in additional free bets if that team’s quarterback passes for 22+ yards. This game is being used as an example.
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Note: You can place a first-time wager of $50+ on any NFL playoff game and be rewarded with $300 in additional free bets if your team’s QB completes a pass. This game and Tom Brady are being used as examples.
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Deposit at least $10 (you don’t need a specific bonus code if you use our link)
Bet $10 on the Bucs moneyline as your FIRST bet
Note: You can place any first-time moneyline wager of $10+ and be rewarded with $220 in additional free bets if that team’s quarterback passes for 22+ yards. This game is being used as an example.
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Deposit at least $10 (you don’t need a specific bonus code if you use our link)
Bet $10 on the Packers moneyline as your FIRST bet
Note: You can place any first-time moneyline wager of $10+ and be rewarded with $220 in additional free bets if that team’s quarterback passes for 22+ yards. This game is being used as an example.
Don’t snooze on this no-brainer of a welcome offer. Head on over to BetMGM before the Packers take the field on Saturday so you can boost your bankroll!
Bet $300 on the Bengals-Titans game as your FIRST bet
Note: You can place a first-time wager of $50+ on any NFL playoff game and be rewarded with $300 in additional free bets if your team’s QB completes a pass. This game and Joe Burrow are being used as examples.
Don’t pass up on this generous welcome offer! Head on over to Betfred so you can cash in before kickoff on Saturday.
Deposit at least $10 (you don’t need a specific bonus code if you use our link)
Bet $10 on the Bengals moneyline as your FIRST bet
Note: You can place any first-time moneyline wager of $10+ and be rewarded with $220 in additional free bets if that team’s quarterback passes for 22+ yards. This game is being used as an example.
Don’t snooze on this no-brainer of a welcome offer. Head on over to BetMGM before the Bengals take the field on Saturday so you can boost your bankroll!
As of 12:30 ET on Thursday, the Knicks are 192.5 point underdogs.
The game is part of FanDuel’s “Spread The Love” promotion, which allows gamblers to bet up to $50 on their hometown team. Since the spread jumps one point for every 500 people that bet, the wager essentially becomes a guaranteed $45 win for anyone who maxes out.
The Knicks were originally 4.5-point favorites, but the spread has gone the other way thanks to nearly 100,000 bettors taking the sportsbook up on the promotion.
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At +192.5, FanDuel’s marketing expense on the promotion is $4.45 million, which is not the most expensive single game promotion in a market from an online sportsbook.
At the beginning of the NFL season, FanDuel’s competitor DraftKings, offered a similar promotion to bettors across the country. The Kansas City Chiefs eventually became a 101-point underdog against the Houston Texans and the sportsbook gave out more than $10 million in winnings.
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Bettors in New York betting on the Knicks have a guaranteed win tonight — and that’s even if the Washington Generals dress up in the blue and white instead.
We’re down to just eight teams now in the 2022 NFL playoffs, and this thing feels wide open. For the first time in years, there’s no prohibitive favorite — not in either conference. There’s a genuinely realistic path for all eight teams left to win the whole thing.
Every team has major strengths, but each one has serious flaws. There’s no juggernaut this season. Every team left can win or lose any given Sunday.
That means there’s serious value on Super Bowl futures, but only if you can figure out which team has the right case and which ones are actually frauds.
So who should you put your money on? I’ll leave that decision to you. But here’s what I can tell you instead. Below is exactly why every team remaining can still win the Super Bowl — and then precisely why they won’t.
The Packers have the best player in football in future MVP Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has done this before and gotten close plenty of other times. Green Bay is coming off a week of rest and getting healthy at the right time. The Packers are getting studs back at three key positions — LT David Bakhtiari, CB Jaire Alexander and EDGE Za’Darius Smith — and have another at WR in Davante Adams. That might be the five most important positions in football.
The Packers have won 13 games in three straight seasons, and they have a Coach of the Year candidate in Matt LaFleur. This team is a juggernaut and has the best home-field advantage in football, and currently sits just two home games away from a Super Bowl berth. The Packers offense ranks top six in Football Outsiders‘ DVOA on every down and top five in every quarter but the first. Rodgers has been miles better than any other quarterback in most advanced metrics. He will lead the way.
Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers
Why the Packers Won’t Win the Super Bowl
No MVP has won a Super Bowl this entire century. Too much reliance on one great player just doesn’t work in the modern NFL. The moment Rodgers has even a mediocre game, the Packers will crumble. Green Bay’s defense has not been reliable all season. The run defense ranks bottom five in DVOA, and the overall defense ranks 24th on first downs and 26th on second downs. And don’t forget, the Packers have the worst special teams in the entire league.
As great as Rodgers is, he’s only been to one Super Bowl for a reason. The Packers simply rely too much on his greatness, and the rest of the team around him isn’t good enough. It’s just too hard for one MVP to carry a team to a title in 2022.
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Chiefs (+400)
Why the Chiefs Will Win the Super Bowl
Patrick Mahomes is the best player in football and saves his best for the playoffs. Mahomes is 7-2 in the postseason. In three playoffs, he’s won the Super Bowl once, lost it once when his offensive line disappeared, and come up one score short of a Super Bowl berth in the other season. As long as you have Mahomes, you have a shot.
Not to mention Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Take Hill away deep and Kelce will burn you all game over the middle; take an extra half step toward Kelce and Cheetah is running past you for a 75-yard score. Kansas City ranks first in the NFL in passing offense DVOA over the last eight weeks. The Chiefs are back.
Andy Reid has coached deep into the playoffs for decades. The Chiefs have elite special teams, like always under Reid. And they just might have a Super Bowl defense now too. Melvin Ingram changed the trajectory of this team, Chris Jones is balling again, and the Chiefs have a Weighted DVOA defensive rank of 13th as they come together the back half of the season.
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Why the Chiefs Won’t Win the Super Bowl
This just hasn’t been the same Mahomes. He nearly led the league in interceptions and made critical turnovers in the red zone all season, including in the first playoff game. Those early games tell us about Kansas City too, and the Chiefs ranked just 15th in passing DVOA the first 10 games, while the defense ranked second to last in the entire NFL.
Tyreek Hill hasn’t had a 50-yard play since Week 1, and the explosive plays haven’t been there. The Chiefs have to grind out long drives now and aren’t built to do that, and their running backs are all injured. The defense is still decent at best and awful at its worst. And the Chiefs went 0-3 against the three remaining AFC teams, with worrying signs in all three losses. These just aren’t the same Chiefs of the last few seasons.
David Eulitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyreek Hill.
Bills (+500)
Why the Bills Will Win the Super Bowl
Did you see the game Saturday? When Josh Allen is dealing like that, the Bills are invincible. Allen has it all. He can run through and over defenders, and when the opponent starts to creep up to stop him, he can dime it over the top to Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders and Dawson Knox. And don’t look now, but the Bills led the league in rushing DVOA offense over the last eight weeks.
We haven’t even mentioned the defense. The Bills have the best defense in the league by DVOA. The passing defense is particularly deadly — and this is a passing league. The Bills demolished a very good Patriots team twice in the last month. They shut down the Chiefs at Arrowhead in October, and that’s who’s up next.
Buffalo won 12 games this season, all of them by 12 or more points. The Bills had the best point differential in the NFL, and point differential is predictive and shows the true strength of teams. We also know one-score games tend to be unpredictable. Buffalo went 0-5 in one-score games. What if Buffalo went 5-0 in those coin-flippy spots instead? Are the Bills an unlucky 15-1 juggernaut hiding in plain sight?
What if that 0-5 record in one-score games actually foretells a flawed team that can’t get the job done when it matters most? Josh Allen still makes those no-no-yes plays and takes unnecessary risks. What happens if a bad Allen play rears its head at the worst time? Is Buffalo really ready to shake off decades of losing? Is this the magic team?
Buffalo’s defense faded down the stretch, particularly its run D, which ranked just 16th over the final eight weeks. Buffalo played with its food a lot. The offense ranked only 16th in the first half of games, constantly letting teams hang around before running up the score late. What if the wrong team hangs around and doesn’t fade late? The Bills went only 2-4 against playoff teams in the regular season. They lost to the Titans and Bucs and lost twice to the Chiefs last year. They probably won’t play at home again either.
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Bucs (+550)
Why the Bucs Will Win the Super Bowl
A healthy Bucs roster is the best in football. Tampa Bay rolled to a Super Bowl win last season and brought back all 22 starters. Tom Brady played like an MVP most of the season, and the Bucs offense led the league in DVOA and ranked top five in both passing and rushing despite facing the second-toughest defensive schedule. The greatest to ever do it can throw behind an elite line to one of two future Hall of Fame targets in Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski, check down to Gio Bernard, or audible to a power run attack with Playoff Lenny.
The Bucs coaching staff knows how to pull all the strings on both sides of the ball. Vita Vea remains the league’s best run stuffer, and Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul can really get after the quarterback. This is an aggressive team that knows its strengths and how to get the job done. The Bucs went 5-1 against playoff teams this year. Tampa Bay is battle-tested and ready. The healthy Bucs are the best team in football.
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Tom Brady.
Why the Bucs Won’t Win the Super Bowl
Will the Bucs ever actually be healthy though? That’s the question we’ve been asking all season, and it’s getting harder and harder to be optimistic. Antonio Brown is gone and Chris Godwin is out for the year — that dangerous list of weapons is nowhere near as dangerous without those two. Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones remain question marks at running back. Barrett and JPP are banged up along with Lavonte David, and injuries at corner have crippled the team all year. Now Pro Bowl RT Tristan Wirfs and C Ryan Jensen are hurt too.
On paper, the Bucs are the best team in football, but the game isn’t played on paper and we may never actually get to see the best version of the Bucs. Some years just aren’t your season. What if it’s just not Tampa’s season? Tom Brady isn’t the same without his elite blocking. And haven’t we seen ancient QBs wilt in the freezing cold where Brady may have to play next week in Green Bay? GOAT or not, the man is 44. Surely he can’t win Super Bowls forever.
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Rams (+800)
Why the Rams Will Win the Super Bowl
Los Angeles is a city of stars, and no team in football has more stars than the Rams. Cooper Kupp is the best receiver in football and might win Offensive Player of the Year. Odell Beckham Jr. makes some of the most absurd grabs you’ll ever see. Aaron Donald might be the best defensive tackle in history. Jalen Ramsey is an elite corner, and Von Miller remains a fearsome pass rusher. Now Cam Akers looks miraculously healthy and ready to rejuvenate this rushing attack too.
And with Jared Goff finally gone, former No. 1 pick Matt Stafford has the arm and the talent to be that final missing piece Sean McVay’s offense has never had. Stafford’s cannon can hit Kupp or OBJ for a big play at any time, and we know McVay can scheme it up.
The Rams defense might be even better than the offense. It ranks top five in DVOA on the season and second in run defense over the past eight weeks. The Rams rank first in pass rush win rate, per ESPN. They can win any facet of the game. They’re the only team left playing that ranks in the top half of the league in offense, defense and special teams DVOA — and they rank eighth or better in all of them. This is the best all-around team in the NFL.
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Why the Rams Won’t Win the Super Bowl
Is Stafford really the missing piece? Or is the piece still missing? Stafford threw eight interceptions over the final four games of the season and could’ve had a few more, and he’s routinely thrown the Rams out of key games late in the season. McVay’s offense cratered down the stretch, just 16th in passing DVOA over the last eight weeks and 14th in Weighted DVOA offensively.
Stafford is 10-41 lifetime against teams over .500 in November or later. He’s 4-33 as an underdog in that spot, and the Rams would likely be underdogs three more times. The Rams went only 2-5 against playoff teams this season. Stafford may have to win two road games to get to the Super Bowl, and if he doesn’t, it’s because the Rams have to beat the 49ers, who have beat them six straight times.
This is a stars-and-scrubs roster. It looks great when it works, but what happens when a few stars get taken out of the game? Is the roster deep enough to win three more? Stafford is playing through a toe injury, and the secondary around Ramsey is a shell of itself with injuries. Stafford had never even won a playoff game until Monday. He’s really gonna win four this year?
Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images. Pictured: Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford.
Titans (+900)
Why the Titans Will Win the Super Bowl
The Titans are the 1-seed and just had a week off at the perfect time. Derrick Henry was bulldozing opponents the first two months of the season, and now Tennessee gets a rested Henry back for the most dangerous time of the year. With Henry on the field, the Titans chew up the clock and grind down already exhausted opponents.
The game is different in the playoffs, with the run game emphasized and weather a factor, and Henry is the ultimate playoff weapon. He’s by far the best RB remaining in the playoffs and if the defense collapses to stop him, the Titans can hit a rested A.J. Brown or Julio Jones over the top. With Henry back, this is a team with clear identity, built to expose modern teams’ weaknesses.
The Titans went 4-2 against playoff teams. They demolished the Chiefs and Rams, beat the Bills and also swept the very good Colts squad that didn’t make the cut. Tennessee also went 6-2 in one-score games. This team just knows how to get the job done, and the AFC road to the Super Bowl comes through Nashville. Don’t give me all your advanced metrics; none of those numbers mean anything. This is an entirely different team for the playoffs now that the offensive stars are healthy.
Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images. Pictured: Derrick Henry
Why the Titans Won’t Win the Super Bowl
Are we sure this version of Derrick Henry is the ultimate playoff weapon? We have no way to know how much Henry can even play, let alone how effective he’ll be. Henry’s entire thing is getting a ton of carries and wearing the opponent down; what if that foot just isn’t healthy enough for him to do that yet? And it’s not like Brown and Jones have been healthy all year either.
The Titans have the worst DVOA of any remaining playoff team. They have the worst offense left too. They don’t rank top 10 on passing or rushing offense, nor passing or rushing defense by DVOA. And they have the worst remaining quarterback in Ryan Tannehill. Come on, do you really think Ryan Tannehill is a Super Bowl winner? In this economy?!
All those advanced metrics do tell us something. They tell us this is the worst remaining team in the playoffs with the worst player at its most important position. They tell us Tennessee is fraudulent.
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49ers (+1200)
Why the 49ers Will Win the Super Bowl
The Niners are the team no one wants to play right now. They might be a 6-seed, but they’re also sixth in DVOA and rank top seven on both offense and defense. It took awhile for San Francisco to get rolling this season, but the team is flying high now and can beat anyone.
The three most important players on this team are LT Trent Williams, TE George Kittle and WR/RB/everything Deebo Samuel. Those three each missed time early in the season and the 49ers struggled with injuries across the defense. But when those three are healthy and playing full snaps, the 49ers are 8-3 and as good as any team.
The Niners have played 10 games against playoff teams. They’re battle-tested, and they’ve been here before. Kyle Shanahan and Jimmy Garoppolo have gone to the Super Bowl together, and the Niners have a unique ability to stretch the field and dominate with a power run attack that travels well and is built for playoff success. The 49ers are zigging while the rest of the league zags, and they are the exact wrong matchup for most of the teams left.
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Why the 49ers Won’t Win the Super Bowl
Are we sure the 49ers are healthy enough? Jimmy Garoppolo is a question mark with thumb and shoulder injuries, and rookie Trey Lance remains mostly untested behind him. Trent Williams just missed Week 18, and now Nick Bosa and Fred Warner are massive injury questions at the heart of the defense for a team that’s already shorthanded in the secondary.
It’s a passing league now, and San Francisco has a leaky pass defense and an unreliable, banged-up quarterback. The rest of the league is zagging precisely because passing is the way to win modern football games, so isn’t it bad that the 49ers will be worse in the passing game in any matchup? Besides, even a healthy Garoppolo is a threat to throw the Niners out of a game at any time. Can he really make it three more games without a season-ending mistake?
Bob Kupbens/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Jimmy Garoppolo.
Bengals (+1500)
Why the Bengals Will Win the Super Bowl
The Bengals are the hot young team, and this is their breakthrough moment. Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are ready to own the stage for the next month and put their stamp on the league. Burrow was the best quarterback in football not named Rodgers by most advanced metrics down the stretch, and Chase just had maybe the best year ever by a rookie receiver.
The Burrow-Chase connection is unstoppable right now, and the Bengals can have a big play anytime anywhere with those two. And if you try to take Chase away, you’ve still got to stop Tee Higgins, Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd. Cincinnati scored 31 or more points seven times since mid-October alone. Burrow and Chase are on the rise. By mid-February, they could be the best at each of their positions in football and finally give Cincinnati a Lombardi Trophy.
Rob Carr/Getty Images. Pictured: Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase
Why the Bengals Won’t Win the Super Bowl
The Bengals hadn’t even won a playoff game since 1991 until last week — now they’re going to win four in a row? Things never come easy for young teams. Burrow and Chase are good, but let’s not pretend they’re anywhere near the best at their positions yet. Those two looked good but faced the easiest slate of opposing defenses this season, per Football Outsiders. This offense struggled against good defenses, and that’s all that’s left now.
Cincinnati would have to win twice on the road just to make the Super Bowl, and the Bengals will be underdogs in every remaining game. They ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in overall DVOA, as well as bottom half in both offensive and defensive DVOA. The offense ranked 25th in road games, and the defense ranked 31st on first downs. The Bengals are a cute story that only made it this far by being the best in a bad division, lucking into the Raiders in round one, and escaping thanks to an inadvertent whistle.
The college basketball game to watch on Thursday evening? Elon vs. Drexel, of course.
Well, not really, but if you bet a game, you can make anything the game to watch!
Sharps are targeting this random game in the Colonial Athletic Conference between teams that have been struggling all year. Neither Drexel nor Elon is above .500, but each is at .500 within conference play, which is most important for mid-major action.
After getting through a two-game losing streak, Elon got a win Monday in dominant fashion, thrashing James Madison. Drexel lost its last outing in a tight battle with Hofstra.
Are sharps looking for the Phoenix to push the Dragons or are they seeing a rebound performance from Drexel?
Elon vs. Drexel Betting System Pick
The Action Network’s college basketball PRO Report is tracking sharp action coming in on the road underdog.
While the public is loving Drexel to get the cover, as 91 percent of the tickets and 89 percent of the money has come in on the Dragons, sharps are in disagreement, combatting the public money to keep this line at six. In fact, this line has gotten to 5.5 at some points in the past day.
Are you willing to throw down on one of the most irrelevant games of the day? If so, go with the Phoenix to try and pull off an upset in Philly.
They are eyeing totals (team and full game) and props across all three games on the evening’s slate. Check out their analysis and best bets for Thursday night below.
Joe Dellera: The Pelicans visit the Knicks and look to exact revenge from their Oct. 30 loss earlier this season. This matchup should see more points than expected based on the opening line of 208.
In that October matchup, the Knicks dropped 123 points while shooting a blistering 57.6% from 3-point range. While 57.6% is not expected to be replicated, the Knicks have an advantage from beyond the arc.
The Pelicans allow the 11th-most 3-point attempts in the league — 38.1% of their opponents’ shots come from 3-point range. This is a bold strategy considering opponents shoot 37.3% on those attempts, the second-worst allowed mark in the NBA.
This is good news for the Knicks who basically only know how to shoot 3s. They take 3s at the eighth-highest frequency in the league — 39.1% of their shots and they are successful — and covert 36.5% of their 3s as a team.
This is an exploitable matchup for the Knicks. In their October matchup, Kemba Walker, Evan Fournier, and RJ Barrett his 4, 5, and 6 3s respectively, and given Fournier’s hot performance against the Timberwolves this could be a spot to look at his 3s prop.
I’ll back the Knicks to score and while I think there’s an edge on the total I’d rather focus on the Knicks’ offense which has played better as of late, scoring 113.6 points per 100 possessions.
Kenny Ducey: The Pelicans may rate as a top-five team on the glass this season, but over the past two weeks they sit down in 13th with a 50.3% rebounding rate. In first place? That’d be the Knicks, who have collected 54.5% of available boards. Front and center has been Julius Randle, who has averaged 9.9 rebounds during that span with 16.7 points and 5.7 assists to boot.
That should mean his points, rebounds and assists total is very much in play here against his former team. We know this team to be below average on defense, and the Knicks have actually kicked it up a notch on offense over the last five games with four offensive ratings of 111 or higher in that span.
Randle’s Usage Rate has remained steady throughout the year, sitting at 27.8%, and the Pelicans have really been at a loss inside lately. This should be a very attackable matchup for the big man and he should be the top performer in what is ultimately a winning effort for the Knicks.
Brandon Anderson: Remember when Luka Doncic was starting slow once again and the Mavericks looked lost under new head coach Jason Kidd?
That feels long ago now. Kidd has Dallas playing outstanding defense, the Mavs are making a charge up the standings, and Doncic is putting up big numbers again. Over the last 10 Mavericks games, Luka is up putting up 23.9 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 9.3 assists per game, just about averaging a triple-double once again. The scoring is down a bit right now, but it’s working, both for him and for Dallas.
We’ll focus on the assists tonight, because this number is just too low. Before this 10-game stretch, Doncic had missed three weeks of action, and his numbers look different since his return. During the first part of the season, he was at 25.6 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 8.5 assists per game. It’s no coincidence that the Mavs are playing better as Doncic does a little less as a scorer but more in other areas of the game to help his team.
Doncic has gone over 7.5 assists in six of these last nine games, but the hidden numbers tell us even the unders have likely just been unlucky shooting by his teammates. That’s because Doncic is averaging a whopping 16.8 potential assists per game over this recent stretch per NBA Advanced Stats, a huge number that gives him a great shot at around nine assists a night or more if his teammates get hot. And sure enough, five of these nine games have seen double-digit dimes from Luka, including games with 12, 14, and 15.
Again, this could be a spot for an alternate over if you like, maybe 10 or 12 assists. Another way you can play aggressively is a Doncic triple-double, priced at +400 at DraftKings. That’s an implied 20%, but Luka has a triple-double in three of his last six games, a 50% hit rate. He’s had the points easily in all six and is one rebound away from double-digit boards in six straight too, so that’s essentially a bet on double-digit assists with a little more risk at a much better price.
If you want to play a few Doncic props together in a Same Game Parlay, one other prop to consider is Dorian Finney-Smith over 1.5 made 3s at +100 on DraftKings. He’s had multiple 3s in 20 of 31 games with at least 30 minutes played, a 65% hit rate, and Dallas will surely need his wing defense out there against the Suns tonight as much as they can keep him on the court. Sure enough, DFS has played twice against the Suns this season and hit a trio of 3s in each game.
We’re projecting Doncic at 9.5 assists, so that gives us a 20% edge here and makes the over 7.5 playable to -145. If you only have 8.5 available at your book, it might be time to try one of those alternate overs or a combination of the options above.
Raheem Palmer: My model makes this total much lower, but when you look at these two teams recently, you’ll see it’s clear that neither one is as good defensively as they would be if full strength. The Golden State Warriors are missing Draymond Green who has a big impact on their defense.
The Milwaukee Bucks scored 40 points in the paint in last Thursday’s 118-99 win over the Warriors. Before Green’s injury, the Warriors were second in opponent points in the paint (41) and tied for fifth in opponent second chance points (12.2).
Since he’s been out, the Warriors are 13th in opponent points in the paint (46) and 23rd in opponent second chance points (15), according to NBA Advanced Stats. The Warriors have also dropped from fifth in Defensive Field Goal Percentage (59.4%) within six feet to 24th (66.1%). Of course, some of this could be noise due to a small sample size, but it feels like an area the could be exploited.
On the other side of the ball, the Indiana Pacers are missing Myles Turner who is one of the best defensive players in the league. Last season, the Pacers were nearly five points per 100 possessions worse on defense with him off the floor. Before playing the Lakers, the Pacers gave up 139 points to the Clippers who rank 27th in Offensive Rating (106.3) this season.
The Warriors have very clearly been slumping offensively, but they should have no problems scoring here. I gave this out on the Buckets podcast last night at 216.5 and the line has since moved up but I still like the over 217.
It’s not as catchy as wearing pink on Wednesdays, and it’s not necessarily a maxim we’ll always follow either. With the NFL playoffs in full steam and Thursday games in the past, though, Thursdays belong to the NBA again now, and that means the league is putting its stars on Thursday nights — and we’re playing them.
Tonight, that means props for Kemba Walker, Luka Doncic and Stephen Curry.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
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NBA Player Props & Picks
Kemba Walker, over 2.5 3-pointers (+135)
Pelicans vs. Knicks
Knicks -4
Time | TV
7:30 p.m. ET | League Pass
Best Book
DraftKings
Walker finally returned after nearly a month away on Tuesday night against the Timberwolves, and he picked up right where he left off.
Walker was exiled from the Knicks earlier this season, but when Derrick Rose went down and left a gaping hole for an aging-but-still-great former All-Star scoring guard, Kemba was ready for the call. He had five excellent games, including one that saw him score 44 points, before he got injured in the sixth. Then, he returned in the starting lineup with 19 points against the Wolves.
During these six games since Rose has been out — not including the game with reduced minutes when Walker got hurt — Kemba is averaging 22.2 points per game. He’s done it with outstanding volume shooting behind the arc, taking 9.8 3-point attempts per game, a huge number, and averaging four makes. He’s gone over 2.5 made 3s in five of those six games, an 83% hit rate to this number.
Of course, Kemba isn’t going to keep shooting 41% from deep forever, so we’re due some regression at some point and that’s baked into this number. But the volume is key. With around 10 attempts per game, that gives us a lot of opportunity to get just three makes and hit our over.
This could also be a spot for an alternate over if you like, since Walker has games with four, five and seven 3s in this stretch. Or you could play a higher point total, since he’s scored 19 or more in four of the six, including a 29 and a 44. We also don’t know if he’ll be getting his full minutes load just yet, though, so it might be wise to stick with the more typical play.
I like Walker to keep the streaky shooting up, so I’ll play the over 2.5 made 3s at any plus number.
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Luka Doncic, over 7.5 assists (-115)
Suns vs. Mavericks
Mavericks +3
Time | TV
7:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Best Book
DraftKings
Remember when Doncic was starting slow once again and the Mavs looked lost under new head coach Jason Kidd? That feels long ago now. Kidd has Dallas playing outstanding defense, the Mavs are making a charge up the standings and Doncic is putting up big numbers again.
Over the last 10 Mavericks games, Doncic is averaging 23.9 points, 10.7 rebounds and 9.3 assists, just about a triple-double every night. The scoring is down a bit right now but it’s working, both for him and for Dallas.
We’ll focus on the assists tonight, because this number is just too low. Before this 10-game stretch, Doncic had missed three weeks of action, and his numbers look different since his return. During the first part of the season, he was at 25.6 points, 8.0 rebounds and 8.5 assists per game. It’s no coincidence that the Mavs are playing better as Doncic does a little less as a scorer but more in other areas of the game to help his team.
Doncic has gone over 7.5 assists in six of these last nine games, but the hidden numbers tell us even the unders have likely just been unlucky shooting by his teammates. That’s because Doncic is averaging a whopping 16.8 potential assists per game over this recent stretch per NBA Advanced Stats, a huge number that gives him a great shot at around nine assists a night or more if his teammates get hot. And sure enough, five of these nine games have seen double-digit dimes from Luka, including games with 12, 14, and 15.
Again, this could be a spot for an alternate over if you like, maybe 10 or 12 assists. Another way you can play aggressively is a Doncic triple-double, priced at +400 at DraftKings. That’s an implied 20%, but Luka has a triple-double in three of his last six games, a 50% hit rate. He’s had the points easily in all six and is one rebound away from double-digit boards in six straight too, so that’s essentially a bet on double-digit assists with a little more risk at a much better price.
If you want to play a few Doncic props together in a Same Game Parlay, one other prop to consider is Dorian Finney-Smith over 1.5 made 3s at +100 on DraftKings. Finney-Smith has made multiple 3s in 20 of 31 games with at least 30 minutes played, a 65% hit rate, and Dallas will surely need his wing defense out there against the Suns tonight as much as they can keep him on the court.
Sure enough, Finney-Smith has played twice against the Suns this season and hit a trio of 3s in each game.
We’re projecting Doncic at 9.5 assists, so that gives us a 20% edge here and makes the over 7.5 playable to -145. If you only have 8.5 available at your book, it might be time to try one of those alternate overs or a combination of the options above.
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Steph Curry, over 3.5 3-pointers (-150)
Pacers vs. Warriors
Warriors -12
Time | TV
10 p.m. ET | TNT
Best Book
DraftKings
Curry sure went ice cold for awhile there.
From Jan. 3-13, Curry hit only 22% of his 3s. That’s probably not a bad number if you or I get up a few shots from behind the NBA arc, but it’s certainly not what we’ve come to expect from the Greatest Shooter of All Time.
Curry has made 43% of his career 3s, though this cold stretch over the middle portion of the season has left him at just 38.6% on the season, which would be the lowest mark of his career.
The great thing about betting on Steph, though, is that you know he can’t stay cold forever.
Curry has four makes in each of his past two games, and he’s right back to 44% from deep during those two. Even better, the volume never really fell during this stretch. He still took 9.0 attempts per game during that cold stretch and that’s right where he’s at the last two games. It’s down a bit from earlier in the season, but that makes sense with Klay Thompson back and might be a bit deflated anyway since Curry has played fewer minutes in blowout wins these last couple games.
I’m always willing to bet on Curry making four 3s in a game until proven otherwise. This line was at 4.5 for much of the season and should get back there again soon enough. He has gone over 3.5 makes in 29 of his 40 games, a 73% hit rate to this prop even in his worst shooting season ever, which makes for a laughable statement if there ever was one.
At -150, we’re still at an implied 60% hit rate and have real margin for error, so I’m happy to play to -175. If it goes past that, I may pivot to an alternate over and go for five or six makes, but the books have learned not to give us very good lines on those with Curry. He’s just too darn good. Steph hasn’t made more than four 3s since New Year’s Day anyway, so let’s take the easier play.
We’re projecting Curry at 5.7 makes tonight. The only real worry here is another blowout win against a shorthanded Pacers team, but Indiana always seems to find a way to hang around and make things interesting before losing, so hopefully we get our shots in as the Splash Brothers find their rhythm.
Trust me, I’m as unhappy about this as you are, but I’m weak, oh, so weak …
Wedged between next weekend’s NFL conference championship games and Super Bowl 56 will be NASCAR’s unofficial start to the 2022 season with the Busch Light Clash (Feb. 6 at 6 p.m. ET, FOX) that will take place at the LA Coliseum.
This is an exhibition event, meaning no points are on the line, and NASCAR is leveraging that by racing on a very unique track and with a format that is unconventional.
From the track’s perspective, the surface will be a quarter-mile flat oval built inside of the LA coliseum, which will be the smallest track that drivers race on all season.
In the sports betting world “unique” can also mean “difficult to handicap” because we, as bettors, like data to fall back on when risking our money and the Busch Light Clash, well, has none.
Because of this, I had (and probably still have) very little motivation to get overly heavy on this event because it will likely be extremely random.
Again, because of the newness and randomness of this event, it’s hard to feel really good about any bet, but at this crazy longshot price, I convinced myself to bet Preece for the following three reasons:
1. Experience on “Similar” Tracks
There is nothing similar to this circuit on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule, but Preece’s background is running short, flat tracks in modifieds and doing it very well.
2. Equipment
Preece signed with Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR) during the offseason to serve as the team’s reserve driver for 2022, meaning he’ll step in in the event that a full-time driver cannot start a race.
As part of the deal, Preece will also run a handful of races across NASCAR’s top three series, including the Busch Light Clash for Rick Ware Racing.
Because Preece is a reserve driver for SHR, one of the Cup Series’ top teams in terms of resources and equipment, and that Rick Ware Racing has a technical alliance with SHR, this car might have expanded support and be more competitive than expected.
3. Randomness
Let’s face it — this race is going to be unpredictable! Throwing 23 cars on a quarter-mile track that none of these drivers have ever seen and where winning is the only thing that matters could get absolutely crazy.
Is it out of the picture that wrecks pave the wave for a surprise winner? Absolutely not.
Preece actually coming through and winning the Busch Light Clash is clearly a longshot, but for the reasons above it’s possible enough to warrant a shot at 500-1 odds — a number I expect to be long gone come race day.
In the night owl section of the day’s order of play, Gertler is looking for the American Anisimova to continue her fine run of form and push Osaka in this match.
It’s an interesting stylistic matchup that is sure to produce fireworks, and Gertler is taking his position because of it.
Nadal has cruised in his first two rounds, and he’s lost just one set in his career to Khachanov.
Does that mean he’ll do it again on Friday morning? Not so fast, says Avery Zimmerman, who has been really impressed with the level that Khachanov has brought down under.
There are three college basketball games on Thursday night that sharp and big money bettors are heavily targeting.
While Purdue vs. Indiana is exciting for a good portion of the country, the other two games mentioned in this story are firmly random.
One of those contests has fewer than 1,500 bets overall across American sportsbooks, according to The Action Network’s tracking data.
But heavy sharp action on games of low magnitude is good news for you, the reader, because you can extract value without the broader public catching on.
Read further to see which lines the wise guys are hammering today.
Thursday College Basketball Smart Money Action
Odds and information as of Thursday afternoon.
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Purdue vs. Indiana
7 p.m. ET
The sharp and big money bettors are all over the under for this matchup.
The smart money action has been enough to move the line down from its opening total of 145 to its current market-low of 140.5.
While the smart money began hammering this line at 145, there still may be value at DraftKings, where they’re pricing this contest at a market-best under 141.
Sharp, Big Money Bet: Under 141 or better (DraftKings)
New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston State
7 p.m. ET
Here come the random games.
This contest has just roughly 1,500 bets across American sportsbooks.
Among them are a handful of sharps, all of whom are on Sam Houston State at +4.5. That’s fading the public, which are betting on New Mexico State to cover.
In addition, one of The Action Network’s best college basketball handicappers is picking Sam Houston State to cover.
Sharp, Big Money Bet: Sam Houston State +4 or better
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Grand Canyon vs. Stephen F. Austin
7:30 p.m. ET
This contest has just over 2,000 individual bettors across American sportsbooks.
And while the majority of the retail bettors among those 2,000 are on Grand Canyon to cover, the smart money is on Stephen F. Austin.
Only 24% of the individual bets are on Stephen F. Austin’s spread but a ridiculous 83% of the money is, meaning a small group of big money bettors are dropping a lot of cash on that spread.
One of The Action Network’s top CBB handicappers is also picking Stephen F. Austin to cover.
Sharp, Big Money Bet: Stephen F. Austin -1 or better
We are one step closer to the college basketball weekend, but let’s not forget about the value that is being offered on Thursday evening.
While the Pac-12 and mid-majors are mostly dominating tonight’s slate, let’s not forget about a critical Big Ten battle in Indiana and a Big East affair in Rhode Island.
Our staff dives into four different games and offers up five total picks to help you formulate your college hoops betting card for Thursday evening.
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Thursday’s College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
Providence has been nothing but impressive when it’s taken the floor this season. The issue is it hasn’t done so in 12 days due to COVID-19 interruptions within the program.
The Friars are 14-2 with several marquee victories, including Wisconsin, Texas Tech and Connecticut.
They match up with Georgetown, which has been reliant on its outside shooting this season, hitting 37% of its 3-point attempts. But recently, the Hoyas have cooled off from downtown, hitting 16-of-60 (22%) over their last three games.
Scoring inside the arc has been a major issue, with the group hitting 45%, ranking 313th in the country.
The defensive pressure when Ed Cooley’s squad is playing at the Dunkin’ Donuts Center is a staple of the program. The group has been strong in defending the perimeter — holding opponents to 31% — and has been even better inside the arc, ranking 25th in defending 2-point shots.
In Providence’s last two games, it held St. John’s and Marquette to a combined 8-for-35 (23%) mark from 3-point range.
Providence plays with the 280th-fastest tempo in the country, according to KenPom, while Georgetown ranks 28th. The last thing that Providence wants is to get into a run-and-gun competition after not playing in nearly two weeks.
Expect a slow-paced defensive battle where Providence takes the air out of the ball and forces Georgetown to score in a half-court offense.
In a battle of the two slowest teams in the Southern Conference, UNC Greensboro will play host to Chattanooga on Thursday.
Chattanooga leads the way in the SoCon with a 14-4 overall record and 4-1 conference record. Although UNCG has not had the start it has wanted, it does play at a similar pattern.
The Mocs are 334th in adjusted tempo, per KenPom. Greensboro ranks 349th. Each takes 19-20 seconds per possession on offense, so this will be a slow, methodical game.
One area of concern for the over could be Chattanooga’s offensive skill, but the Spartans of Greensboro have the antidote. In fact, they carry a top-85 defensive efficiency and can rebound on both sides of the ball. Chattanooga cannot. This should negate any second chances for the Mocs.
Now, UNCG is the polar opposite. It has little offensive wherewithal, except for De’Monte Buckingham, who is lethal from 3 and averages over 13 points per game. If Malachi Smith and David Jean-Baptiste can hold him in check for the Mocs, there will be very little opportunity for the Greensboro offense to get its engine going.
If UNCG does turn the ball over, which it tends to do with a 22.4% turnover rate, Chattanooga will still maintain its typical pace.
These variables all lean to the under. There should not be room for the Spartans to be effective on the offensive end, and Chattanooga will play at a pace comfortable enough for both teams.
This is a massive game in America’s most basketball-crazed state.
The Hoosiers have lost nine straight to Purdue, encapsulating the entire Archie Miller era. Both fan bases are well aware of this streak. The last time Indiana beat Purdue came in February 2016, which feels like lifetimes ago.
In those nine meetings, the two teams have tended toward grind-it-out slogs, which is typical of rivalries across the Big Ten and college basketball. They have topped tonight’s total of 142.5 just twice in that nine-game span, including just once in the last eight meetings.
Both of these teams are middle-of-the-road in terms of tempo, with neither looking to particularly push the pace or slow things down, which can make betting the total feel risky.
Purdue has the nation’s top offense in terms of efficiency, but on the road against an in-state rival with a top-15 defense, there shouldn’t be an expectation for the Boilers to put a big number on the scoreboard.
I expect this one to be a closely-contested wrestling match, staying safely below the total.
It sure does suck betting a road favorite – especially in the Big Ten, where home-court advantage is stronger than almost anywhere.
It also sucks betting a team coming off of an emotional, double-overtime win against a huge rival. But I have good reason to fade the home dog in this “situational” spot.
Indiana has quietly become one of the best defensive teams in college basketball this season. The Hoosiers have snuck up to 12th in defensive eFG% and are allowing less than 0.8 PPP in the half-court.
But Mike Woodson’s team is carried by its frontcourt. Trayce Jackson-Davis is arguably the best two-way big in college basketball. Meanwhile, Race Thompson is a great interior defender and Miller Kopp ranks in the 84th percentile of D-I in PPP allowed (0.676).
As a result, the Hoosiers are 18th nationally in block rate and sixth in post-up PPP allowed.
But, like the Archie Miller-led teams before, the Hoosiers have pathetic guard play. Indiana is 280th in steal rate and ranks way below average in defending the pick-and-roll. Xavier Johnson, their top guard, ranks below the 40th percentile of D-I players in PPP allowed.
Indiana will likely neutralize Trevion Williams and Zach Edey. But Purdue can and will attack every which way.
In this case, Jaden Ivey is going to have a field day against the Hoosiers’ backcourt. Plus, Indiana is just average defensively in spot-up situations, and Sasha Stefanovic is currently averaging almost 1.3 PPP in those situations.
Indiana is also 0-2 this season as an underdog, and I don’t expect it to pull off the upset against the best team in the conference.
Finally, I’ll side with the sharp money that’s pushed this line up from the -2.5 opener.
Sometimes it comes down to the actual basketball being played on the court. And the Purdue mismatches are too much for me to ignore.
This is a fantastic sell-high spot on a Grand Canyon team that is due for some regression.
Sure, it’s 15-2, has an incredible defense and allows only 24.5% from behind the arc, but that’s not sustainable or relevant to this matchup because Stephen F. Austin shoots a low percentage of 3-pointers.
Stephen F. Austin loves to get out in transition, spending over 20% of possessions in that area. It boasts a 61.7% eFG% in transition, which is 22nd in college basketball, per Hoop-Math.
That is bad news for Grand Canyon, which is an elite half-court defense but really struggles to defend in transition, ranking in the bottom half of college basketball in PPP allowed, per Synergy.
Grand Canyon, offensively, loves to shoot 3-pointers. In fact, over 40% of its field goal attempts come from behind the arc. That’s not really going to work against Stephen F. Austin, which allows under 31% from deep.
Also, the Antelopes shoot only 62% from the free-throw line, which is one of the worst marks in college basketball.
Even if we look at ShotQuality’s adjusted efficiency, Grand Canyon is 130th, while Stephen F. Austin is 154th. So, there really isn’t much to separate these two teams in terms of the quality of looks they’re getting and allowing.
Despite rumors that the Carabao Cup tie between Liverpool and Arsenal would be postponed again, the match is set to be played on Thursday at Emirates Stadium.
From a betting perspective, this is an interesting game to analyze on the pitch itself, but the betting stories off the pitch appear just as fascinating right now.
The Athletic first reported Wednesday morning the FA was looking into suspicious betting patterns regarding wagers that were placed on an Arsenal player to be booked. The story adds another element of intrigue to a fixture that was already set to be a good one.
Here are my thoughts on how the game could unfold, though I can’t account for the shenanigans taking place off the field.
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Struggling Arsenal Still Winless in January
As the clock wound down on 2021, it appeared the Gunners could be on their way to a genuine top-four challenge.
Wins against Southampton, West Ham United, Leeds United and Norwich City on the bounce gave supporters a real bit of excitement, but since then Arsenal has lost two games and drawn one, which includes a defeat at the hands of Nottingham Forest in an FA Cup contest.
To be fair, one of those losses was against Manchester City and the draw came versus Liverpool from a man down last week after Granit Xhaka’s awful challenge. Nonetheless, after COVID-19 issues forced a postponement of the North London derby this past weekend, Arsenal hasn’t won a game since Dec. 26 and the positive feelings around the club’s progress appear to be fading.
That’s why this fixture will be incredibly important for Arsenal, who could use a chance at silverware with it being the last remaining competition for the Gunners outside of the Premier League.
Manager Mikel Arteta could have to deal with some fresh absences, as there has been some speculation regarding additional COVID-19 cases at the club, but it appears the speculation wasn’t based on anything concrete.
Has Liverpool Finally Found Its Footing?
The stretch of form Liverpool endured after beating Leicester City on Dec. 22 was significantly worse than what Arsenal saw, at least by the Reds’ standards. Liverpool drew four out of six games and lost its EPL rematch against the Foxes, with the lone win in that span coming against Shrewsbury in the FA Cup.
This past Sunday, Liverpool put together one of its best performances in weeks, beating Brentford in dominant fashion. The Reds won, 3-0, and obliterated the Bees in the expected-goals battle by a 3.49-0.38 margin. Needless to say, that win could be a good sign for the fixture ahead.
Defense wasn’t the issue for Liverpool in the reverse fixture at Anfield, but that’s partly because Xhaka got himself sent off in the first half. Rather, it was an anemic offensive display that limited Jürgen Klopp’s team.
The lone great chance the team got came at the end of the match, when the ball fell for Takumi Minamino in front of an open net, only to be blasted into Roz Z of The Kop. He got on the scorer’s sheet this past Sunday, though, combining with Roberto Firmino to seal the Liverpool win.
At the end of the day, getting Liverpool at plus money against Arsenal is still too hard to pass up.
The Gunners haven’t maintained an xG edge in any game against a top-six side since a Sept. 26 clash with Tottenham, and they’re dealing with some serious controversy at the moment. Who knows how the current news will impact Arsenal, but I can’t imagine it’s positive and the club is already behind the eight ball when facing Liverpool.
It was vital the Reds found an attacking rhythm against Brentford, and I think we can expect another strong lineup in this tie from Klopp. There’s no reason to think he’d back off from the competition now, and with a vulnerable Arsenal side on the other side of the pitch, he can afford to get aggressive.
Back Liverpool to get the job done inside the 90 minutes to reach to the final.
Bet $20+ on the Wizards spread or moneyline as your FIRST bet
Note: You can place any first-time wager of $20+ and be rewarded with $205 in additional free bets if that team scores a point. The Wizards and Bradley Beal are being used as examples.
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On Jan. 18, North Carolina State offensive lineman Ikem Ekwonu was a 100-1 longshot to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.
In just 24 hours, that number dropped all the way to 5-1.
It’s the latest move in what’s been an up-and-down market at DraftKings for the 320-pound sophomore. He dropped from 100-1 to 55-1 between Jan. 2 and Jan. 6. That jumped back up to 100-1 between Jan. 12 and Jan. 18.
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Now at 5-1, is he in serious consideration for the No. 1 pick?
Most mock drafts and big board rankings are heavy with offensive linemen and pass rushers at the top.
Ekwonu has been getting more and more buzz in early mock drafts. He was the No. 1 overall pick in the latest mock from The Athletic. He’s the No. 5 overall prospect according to The Draft Network, ranking as the top offensive lineman on the board. However, he is not the top pick in their latest mock.
It doesn’t take much for sportsbooks to move these more “informational” markets. A post on r/sportsbook suggested taking Ekwonu at 100-1 yesterday, and given the 262,000 members on that Subreddit, it’s possible that contributed.
The Jaguars have the top pick in the draft and are set at quarterback for now with 2021 No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence. It’s not a particularly strong quarterback class either, in case Jacksonville did want to go another direction.
In his rookie season, Lawrence threw for 3,641 yards with just 12 touchdowns to 17 interceptions. His 33.5 QBR ranked 28th among qualified quarterbacks. However, after being sacked 32 times, protecting him is a high priority.
Michigan pass-rusher Aidan Hutchinson is still the betting favorite at DraftKings at +135. That’s slightly ahead of Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux, who entered the college football season as many pundits’ top player.
Alabama tackle Evan Neal (+275) is the top offensive lineman on the oddsboard.
After the top four, there’s a steep drop to the quarterbacks. Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett (+3500) tops Matt Corral (+5500) as the No. 1 option on the betting board.
Bet $20+ on Indiana-Purdue (spread or ML) as your FIRST bet
Note: You can place any first-time men’s college basketball wager of $20+ and be rewarded with $205 in additional free bets if that team scores a point. This game is being used as an example.
Well, what are you waiting for? Head on over to PointsBet before tip-off in Bloomington!
Don’t even bother trying to explain or rationalize the slew of head-scratching results — it’s sure to twist your brain into an Auntie Anne’s pretzel.
Meet Stanford, a microcosm of the Pac-12’s funhouse of mirrors. The Cardinal host Arizona tonight after a sour conclusion to last weekend’s Washington trip.
Stanford first notched an impressive road win over a much improved Washington State team. Then, it laid an egg against Washington two nights later, ruining any chance of climbing into the top three of the conference standings.
That loss also halted a five-game cover streak for the Tree, proof that Jerod Haase’s crew is slowing rounding into form.
Tonight, they face the ultimate litmus test: Tommy Lloyd and his Tucson-based Wildcats.
Arizona has looked the part of a bonafide national title contender through and through, with its lone blemish coming in a tough road defeat at Tennessee. The Cats are already laying waste to the Pac-12 and show no signs of slowing down.
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Arizona Wildcats
Lloyd is the front man of Arizona’s basketball revolution. The longtime right hand man of Mark Few at Gonzaga has unlocked a gold mine in the global talent pool.
He’s hoarded the cream of the crop from all over the world, as English is often treated as a second language in practice and locker room communication.
Origins aside, the Wildcats all speak Lloyd’s language on the hardwood. This high-octane offense, powered by super size and super skill alike, is officially a juggernaut, neighboring on invincible at times.
Holding it all together in super glue fashion has been Estonian point guard Kerr Kriisa. In a locker room littered with foreign influence from all over the globe, Kriisa’s enigmatic personality exudes unrivaled confidence that permeates to all corners of the squad.
Unfortunately, that free-wheeling personality got him in trouble last Saturday when Kriisa, reportedly, injured himself “horsing around” just prior to the Utah game.
The Cats still steamrolled the Utes without their heady point guard and Lloyd’s already confirmed Kriisa is back in the mix for this weekend’s road trip. This is bad news for Cardinal fans.
Stanford Cardinal
Don’t look now but Stanford’s quietly assembled a respectable resume — no, it’s not yet worthy of NCAA Tournament at-large consideration, but you better believe a win over Arizona would catapult the Cardinal into the bubble conversation, and perhaps beyond.
True to their name, the “Tree” boasts exceptional positional size across the board. Per KenPom’s “Average Height” metric, the Cardinal are the fourth “tallest” team in America.
Outside of the modestly sized Michael O’Connell (6’2), Stanford will always trot out four players standing anywhere from 6-foot-7 to 6-foot-11. The secret sauce is the triumvirate of Spencer Jones (6-foot-7), Jaiden Delaire (6-foot-9) and freshman phenom Harrison Ingram (6-foot-8).
Any chance of a Cardinal upset hinges on Stanford’s length bothering, or at least neutralizing, Arizona in the paint. The concern, however, is that the Cardinal lack an intimidating bruiser needed to check the likes of Azuolas Tubelis (6-foot-11) and Christian Koloko (7-foot-1) up front.
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Arizona vs. Stanford Betting Pick
Arizona’s journey to NorCal this weekend won’t be a picnic, as this is the Wildcats’ first traditional two-leg Pac-12 road trip of the season.
The Cats dismantled Oregon State in Corvallis back in early December, but that was a one-off scheduling quirk. This marks U of A’s first two-part Pac-12 road trip expedition, which so routinely trips up the league’s most prolific power players.
Still, that spot alone isn’t enough to entice a wager on the home dog, especially given the COVID constraints will limit the home crowd to only a handful of scattered patrons.
The angle here is the under. Arizona’s frenetic tempo is nearly impossible to slow down, but the Cardinal have excelled at deflating the pace, as needed, this year.
Look for the aforementioned size and length of the Cardinal’s wing/forward corps to disturb the Cats’ offense ever so slightly.
This game between the Pelicans and Knicks has a 63% profitable against-the-spread (ATS) PRO Betting System.
The historically fruitful system dates back to 2005. If you had wagered $100 on the roughly 10 NBA games per year that have fit the algorithm since 2005, you’d be up $3,120, or about $200 per year.
That’s a solid 63% win rate over a long sample size. For reference, a success rate of 52.4% is enough to turn a profit.
The system has a historical 23% return on investment (ROI). Of course, anything above 0% is an ROI win. Any ROI above 8% beats the stock market’s average annual return.
Read further to see what the system is, the theory behind it and how to incorporate it for tonight’s game.
New Orleans Pelicans vs. New York Knicks 63% Profitable Betting System Pick
This betting algorithm targets small road underdogs coming off of an ATS loss. The algorithm also fades the public when they ride small home favorites that are coming off of an against-the-spread win.
Largely, teams coming off of ATS losses are undervalued in the market. And retail bettors love teams coming off of wins, which inflates their value.
Retail bettors are hammering the Knicks for this contest and have moved the line from its open at Knicks -2.5 all the way to Knicks -4.
That’s one key for this algorithm — line movement in favor of the road underdog in question. In this case, it’s the Pelicans at +4.
Another parameter requires the road team — in this case, the Pelicans — to have been underdog ATS losers in their previous game. New Orleans was a +5.5 underdog against Boston on Monday but lost by 12 points.
The third parameter requires the home team — the Knicks — to have covered their previous game. New York were +2.5 underdogs against Minnesota and lost by two points.
This historically profitable algorithm only fulfills 9.6 NBA games per year. This might be an opportunity to cash in — but keep in mind that this is a long-term investment.
Make sure to follow through on this betting system as the season continues.
What is it going to take for the Philadelphia Flyers to win a hockey game?
For the second time this season, the Flyers are on a nine-game losing streak. Their latest effort was pretty strong, however, and Philadelphia was unfortunate to come up short in a nine-round shootout loss to the Islanders.
That loss did a good of summing up how things have been going for the Flyers this season.
The Blue Jackets have been off since losing 9-2 to the Panthers on Saturday.
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The Jackets Have the Rest Advantage
The Columbus Blue Jackets have only played two games in the last week and they were very different contests. A week ago, the Jackets pulled off one of the surprising results of the season with a 6-0 win over the Hurricanes.
Unfortunately, Columbus followed that up with a 9-2 loss to Florida.
The Jackets started the season hot, but some hot finishing and strong goaltending really masked over some significant flaws that this team has. Columbus ranks 10th in goals scored per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, but that number should trend down over the season as it is nearly a half-goal higher than their xGF/60.
The real issue for the Jackets is that they are among the worst defensive teams in the league right now. Columbus ranks 31st in goals allowed per game, 32nd in 5-on-5 goals allowed per 60 minutes, 30th in high-danger chances allowed and 31st in expected goals allowed at 5-on-5.
That kind of defense makes life tough on the goaltenders and neither Elvis Merzlikins nor Joonas Korpisalo have covered themselves in glory this season. Merzlikins has been the better of the two, but a .907 save percentage with a +0.1 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) suggests he’s been average.
It’s also worth noting that Columbus has struggled to a 6-12-0 record on the road this season.
Can Philadelphia Stop the Rot?
The Flyers have come so close to ending this long streak, but they just haven’t been able to get the job done.
The Flyers outshot and outplayed the New York Islanders at home on Tuesday night. The Flyers had 34 shots on net and allowed 31 shots on Carter Hart, but they won the expected goals battle 3.24 to 2.68. Claude Giroux, Travis Konecny, Cam Atkinson and Joel Farabee all contributed a point in that game, which was a welcome sign for a team that has struggled offensively.
After a slight improvement in their first few games under new coach Mike Yeo, the Flyers have crumbled of late. Philadelphia sits dead-last in expected goals and high-danger scoring chances allowed, though some decent goaltending means the Flyers are “only” 24th in the NHL in goals allowed at 5-on-5.
Carter Hart is the expected starter for the Flyers and will give them the goaltending edge in this contest. Hart has a +3.9 GSAx in 24 games this season.
Blue Jackets vs. Flyers Pick
Given the two defenses facing off, both teams should have opportunities to get rubber on the net on Thursday night. And while the idea of backing a team on its second nine-game losing streak as a favorite is not anyone’s idea of fun, I think the edge in goal for the Flyers makes them bettable in this spot.
The Florida Panthers will continue their road trip on Thursday night when they travel to Edmonton to take on the Oilers.
Florida and Edmonton have been trending in opposite directions as of late, with the Panthers being the squad that is heading in the right direction. Florida as won eight of their last ten games and has been doing so in dominant fashion, while the Oilers have lost six straight games and eight of their last ten.
Edmonton has fallen into a miserable slump, but so far this season the Oilers have been able to find some success on their home ice. Will that be the case in this one, or will the Panthers dominate once again and prove why they are one of the top teams in the NHL?
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Florida Panthers
The Florida Panthers have been playing hockey at an unbelievable level as of late, and as a result they have been a tough squad to beat on a nightly basis.
Over the course of their last ten games, Florida has scored an average of 5.4 goals per game, much higher than their season average of 4.05. The Panthers have also found some success when it has come to defense and goaltending, holding their opponents to just 2.8 goals per game in that same span of games.
As a result of their recent success, this is now one of the most well-rounded teams in the league from a statistical standpoint.
Florida now has the most total goals scored in 5-on-5 situations with 111, which is 14 more than the Avalanche who are second in the league in that category. In addition, the Panthers are scoring 3.57 goals per 60 minutes in 5-on-5 while surrendering just 2.38, showing that their defense can remain strong and hold down that end of the ice and provide the offense with tremendous support.
Sergei Bobrovsky is in line to get the start in net on Thursday. Bobrovsky has won seven of his last eight starts, and in 5-on-5 this year he has an SV% of .929 and 10.3 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx).
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Edmonton Oilers
Edmonton is in a downward spiral that has put quite the damper on their season, a season where they started out red hot.
The Oilers began the 2021-22 season by winning 16 of their first 23 games and looked like they had a shot to run away with the Pacific Division. However, Edmonton has only won three games since December 1st in what has been quite the collapse, and now finds themselves in seventh place in the Pacific Division with 35 total points.
One of the most lethal scoring attacks to begin the year, led by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, has since fallen to the middle of the pack. In 5-on-5, Edmonton is ranked 19th in total goals and 13th in Expected Goals For per 60 minutes (xGF/60) with 2.47, showing that they are not getting much support from anyone besides their two stars.
Defensively speaking, Edmonton hasn’t been great either, but there is still room for some hope that they can turn the tide.
In 5-on-5 situations, Edmonton is surrendering the fifth most goals per 60 minutes with 2.91, but as a team they are in the top half of the league in Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) with 2.41. They’ve certainly had some poor moments on that end of the ice, but they have been getting unlucky in the process as well.
Between injuries and poor play, Edmonton has been rotating goalies left and right, and it looks like it will be Mikko Koskinen’s turn to attempt to stop the Panthers in their tracks. In 5-on-5 this season, Koskinen has an SV % of .906 and -6.7 GSAx.
Almost everything points towards a Panthers win in this one, but Florida’s play on the road this season is something that should be taken into consideration.
Coming into this matchup, the Panthers are just 5-5-5 while playing on their opponents ice, which is a massive difference when compared to their home record of 21-3. Furthermore, Florida has lost nine of their last eleven games on the road, which includes a 5-1 loss to Calgary on Tuesday to begin their road trip.
Edmonton clearly has not played good hockey, but they are 10-7 overall this year on their home ice and will be facing a Panthers team that is unpredictable on the road, and has given up and average of 4.67 goals per game in their last three road games.
It’s a bit of an ugly play, but I think there is value in the Oilers getting back on track tonight and taking down the Panthers.
Saint Mary’s will host Santa Clara in a pivotal WCC matchup on Thursday night. The Broncos and the Gaels find themselves both at 1-1 in conference play, and this game could show just how deep the talent is in the WCC this year.
Santa Clara dropped its last game to the WCC powerhouse and leader in Gonzaga but had won its four previous games — all by double-digits — with two of those wins coming on the road.
For Saint Mary’s, it’s won three of its last four games overall with the lone loss coming to BYU, which is also typically one of the top teams in the conference. The Gaels have only gotten better as the season has gone on, posting wins over Oregon, Notre Dame, and Utah State.
Santa Clara stunned Saint Mary’s last year in their only meeting. And while the Gaels have won eight of the last 10 meetings, the Broncos are a dangerous team on the road.
Road wins against Pacific and San Jose State still look good regardless of how bad those teams have been. The Broncos also posted a 19-point win over TCU on a neutral court.
Taking down Saint Mary’s on the road would be a great start way to get back on track in conference play after the 32-point beatdown at the hands of Gonzaga.
But when the Broncos take the floor at Saint Mary’s, they will be without Jaden Bediako (undisclosed), who is averaging 17.6 minutes per game and is second on the team in blocks. He also post 4.6 points and four rebounds per game, which could be hard to recreate given his size.
With how strong the WCC is this season, the Gaels know this game won’t be easy. But they do have a major advantage in not dealing with any injuries like the Broncos have.
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Santa Clara Broncos
Santa Clara’s offense has been one of the best in the West Coast Conference. It still scored 83 points against Gonzaga.
On the season, the Broncos rank 35th in the country in scoring offense with 77.3 points per game. They have also impressed when it comes to effective field goal percentage (23rd), free-throw shooting (31st), and 3-point shooting (26th).
Jalen Williams has been one of the best scorers in the WCC and leads the Broncos with 18.9 points per game. Santa Clara has three other double-digit scorers as well, with two of them shooting over 43% from 3-point range.
There is some concern on the defensive end, however, especially after allowing Gonzaga to score 115. The Broncos rank 245th nationally in scoring defense, but given Saint Mary’s struggles on offense, they should be able to limit the Gales considerably.
Saint Mary’s Gaels
Saint Mary’s plays at one of the slowest paces in the country, ranking 318th in adjusted tempo. And while Santa Clara’s defense is far from elite, I think the tempo will factor significantly into this being a low-scoring bout.
The Gaels have just three players averaging double figures. Matthias Tass leads the team with 12.4 points per game, while Logan Johnson contributes 10.7 per contest and Tommy Kuhse is posting 10.1.
And while Khuse may only average 10.1 points per game, he is a leader on the team and should play a major role in holding off Santa Clara.
On defense, the Gaels are one of the best teams in the country. Ranking 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency, they are limiting teams to only 59.2 points per game.
They also rank third in opponent rebounds per game, allowing just 28.4 per contest.
The Gaels may not excel on the offensive end, but against one of the worst defenses in the conference, their experience should play a big factor in leading them past the Broncos.
Saint Mary’s ranks 77th in experience compared to Santa Clara at just 112th. And while they aren’t a high-scoring team, the Gaels are efficient, ranking 108th in shooting efficiency.
Pair that with a top-10 defense that should be able to limit the high-scoring output of the Broncos, and I believe it should be enough to propel the Gaels to not only a win, but a cover.
Santa Clara is also 1-4 against the spread in its last five games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. Saint Mary’s, meanwhile, is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.
I’m taking the Gaels as a 9-point favorite and would take them as high as -10.
The Splash Brothers are reunited once again! Tonight will be Klay Thompson’s sixth game back. He has yet to play more than 23 minutes in a game thus far, but I am sure his minutes will be ramping up soon enough.
The last time these two teams met was Dec. 12 in Indiana where the Warriors rallied late to secure a 102-100 victory. The under hit in that game and has for both teams all season long. Despite that game being played a little over a month ago, both teams look a little different now heading into tonight.
Injuries have taken a toll on the Pacers and the Warriors. Most of these injuries are also very significant to each team. Even though the injuries are hard to see, they present some value on the total in this game so let’s dive into the matchup for both teams.
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How Will Injuries Impact the Pacers’ Starting Unit?
The Indiana Pacers are in a tailspin as they have lost 10 of their last 12 games. They have plummeted to the third-worst record in the Eastern Conference with a record of 16-29. They are however coming off of a victory against the Los Angeles Lakers last night 111-104. It was obviously a much needed win.
The Pacers are in the middle of their five-game west coast road trip as travel to Golden State. They are specifically awful on the road this season where they have a record of 4-17. Somehow they have been favored on the road four times. However, as road underdogs the Pacers have actually covered the spread in nine of their 14 games. The under has hit in 11 of those 14 games.
Any time there is a team that is expected to be decent but has been very disappointing, the trade rumors start swirling. The Pacers have a lot of great pieces who have been discussed in trades. The most frequent has been their center Myles Turner who is out tonight and will be out for the next four weeks.
The Pacers already have a poor defense that ranks 22nd in defensive rating this season. In three games without Turner their Defensive Rating has dropped from 112.1 to 119.9 per game. There is also a chance that the Pacers will be playing without Malcolm Brogdon. He played last night for the first time since December 21st. His status for this back-to-back is uncertain right now.
Lastly, the Pacers leader Domantas Sabonis is coming off of his fourth triple-double of the season last night where he finished with 20 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists. He has had three triple-doubles in his last seven games! However, he suffered an ankle injury in their game last night and it sounds as if he will not be available for tonight. Anther huge loss to this Pacers frontcourt.
This matchup for the Pacers is a nightmare. The Warriors lead the league in Defensive Rating and they have allowed a league-best 101.2 points per game. Their opponents shoot just 42.8% from the field which is just ridiculous. The Pacers have their work cut out for them on the offensive end of the court.
Will the Home Stand Rekindle Another Winning Streak?
After a 1-3 road trip, the Golden State Warriors returned home and absolutely dominated the Detroit Pistons 102-86. Tonight will be their second game of a seven-game home stand. Maybe the Warriors can go on another great run again as they have the league’s best home record at 19-3.
The most profitable bet on the Warriors this season has been on the under. Their game total has gone under in 28 of their 44 games played. The second most profitable bet has been the Warriors covering the spread. Especially as home favorites like they are tonight, the Warriors have covered the spread in 15 of their 22 games. For reference, the under also hit in 15 of those 22 games.
Klay Thompson is finally back! Thompson had his best shooting night since his return last game when he scored a team-high 21 points. Unfortunately as he came back, the Warriors then lost Draymond Green due to injury. Green’s injury has been significant thus far. In the 10 games that Green has missed this season, the Warriors are 4-6 while their Offensive Rating drops from 112.7 to 107.1 per game and their defensive rating drops from 101.9 to 107.7 per game.
Without Green in the lineup, the Warriors will lean on rookie Jonathan Kuminga who has been fantastic when given playing time. He is coming off of a double-double with 12 points and 10 rebounds in their last game where he played 25 minutes. He has flashed a ton of elite athletic abilities and should be a strong player on this Warriors team moving forward.
Maybe even more important is the status of Stephen Curry. He left last game with a hand injury, but the game was so out of reach his return didn’t really matter. I would imagine he will play tonight, but it is something to monitor.
This matchup against the Pacers without Sabonis and Turner presents a fantastic spot for the Warriors. They likely won’t take advantage with their starting center Kevon Looney and they also have the second least amount of drives this season as a team. However, they should be able to dominate the glass. The Warriors rank fifth this season in rebounding percentage.
The Pacers rank 23rd in pace this season. They will have difficulty scoring against the best defense in the league, especially with Turner and Sabonis out and potentially Brogdon unable to play as well. The Warriors are simply too good defensively and will suffocate the Pacers offense tonight.
The Warriors are heavy 10-point favorites tonight. That line may sway depending on who is available to play for each side. I would lean the Warriors covering, but the bet that popped throughout this entire article has been the under. That has where I am going tonight. I would bet this down to 215 points.
Pac-12 rivals will square off on Thursday night as the ninth-ranked UCLA Bruins travel to Utah to take on the Utes.
The Bruins sit second in the Pac-12 at 11-2 on the season and 3-1 in the conference.
Utah, however, has struggled severely, playing in a way that has made it the worst team in the conference standings. Even though they do post an overall record of 8-10, the Utes are 1-7 in conference play.
Last time out, the Bruins came through with an 81-65 home win over Oregon State. The win over the Beavers was a great bounce-back game for UCLA after suffering titseir first conference loss of the season to Oregon.
Against Oregon State, the Bruins were led by Johnny Juzang, who posted 24 points, six rebounds, three assists and two steals. Jules Bernard was also a key factor, accounting for 16 points. Oregon State had no answer for UCLA around the rim, allowing the Bruins to shoot 27-of-35 from 2-point range.
Utah, however, continued to struggle, losing 64-62 to Arizona State on the road in its last game.
The Bruins won both meetings over the Utes last season to extend their head-to-head winning streak to four straight games. They also lead the all time series, 11-8.
The Utes and first-year head coach Craig Smith had some issues early in the season, but since conference play began, they have gotten out of hand. Utah has now lost 10 of its last 13 games.
Getting back on track will be a tall task against one of the best teams in the Pac-12 in UCLA.
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UCLA Bruins
The Bruins boast the 20th-best scoring offense in the country, averaging 80.6 points per game. And while they’ve posted respectable numbers — shooting 47.5% from the floor and 32.5% from outside the arc — the offense will be without key pieces against Utah.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. has dealt with an ankle injury lately and missed the Oregon State game. He returned to practice on Tuesday, which means he should be able to play at some level against Utah. Forward Mac Etienne has also been dealing with a knee injury and hasn’t played yet this season.
But the Bruins will have Johnny Juzang, who has been UCLA’s top scorer with 17.2 points per game. Jaquez adds 13.3 points and 5.6 rebounds per game at full strength. Tyger Campbell is also an effective point guard with 12.6 points, 4.5 assists and 1.2 steals per contest.
UCLA’s defense has been consistent, but there are definitely some issues. It allows 66.8 points per game, while also allowing teams to shoot 47.5% from 2-point range and 32.5% from beyond the arc.
Despite their extended losing streak, the Utes are 7-10-1 against the spread this season, which includes covering in both of their last two losses.
Utah isn’t a horrible team offensively; it’s just nowhere close to UCLA’s level. The Utes average 70.7 points per game and shoot just 42.1% from the floor, which ranks 243rd in the country.
Utah’s biggest issue, however, has been its personnel.
Branden Carlson, who averages 13.3 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game, is recovering from appendicitis and has missed the last three games. He’s expected to miss at least two more as well. Bostyn Holt is also out for the year due to a knee injury.
Both Gach is Utah’s top healthy scorer with an average of 10.8 points per game. UNLV transfer David Jenkins Jr. is also in double figures at 10.7.
Utah’s defense has been its best unit, allowing only 69.3 points per contest and limiting opposing teams to 42.9% from the floor. It’s been specifically great at defending the 3, ranking 29th in the country in 3-point shooting defense.
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UCLA vs. Utah Betting Pick
If Utah was a healthy team, it could definitely be a live dog at home. Unfortunately for the Utes, that’s not the case, and the Bruins have proven their ability to win on the road.
This is a tough UCLA offense to deal with. It has shot the ball well, ranks 23rd in rebounds per game, and turns the ball over just 14% of the time. Showing it can win without Jaquez in its last game was also a defining moment for the team.
The Bruins are 0-3-1 against the spread in their last four games. I think that changes Thursday night.
They’ve played some of their best ball in their three true road games, and I think the offense will be too much for Utah to keep up with.
I have UCLA at -9.5 and would take it as high as a 12-point favorite.
Yes, Thursday’s college basketball schedule officially gets underway with North Florida vs. Florida State at noon ET, but for most fans and bettors, it’s Georgetown vs. Providence at 5 p.m. ET that marks the start of today’s slate.
First, those who work 9-to-5s will be too busy to handicap, bet and sweat early afternoon games, but should be home with plenty of time to at least catch the second half of Georgetown vs. Providence.
In addition, this game will be nationally-televised on FS1, again, making it easy for casual bettors to watch.
So if you’re looking to take a side on Georgetown vs. Providence, what is the smartest way to approach this game?
Using The Action Network’s PRO betting tools, let’s break down the sharp side.
Georgetown vs. Providence Pick
Providence is a healthy double-digit favorite over Georgetown per the latest college basketball odds, but pro bettors have already eaten into a chunk of the Hoyas’ line value.
Georgetown opened at +13.5 across the market for Thursday’s game and pro bettors were quick to jump on the points, which is why we’ve seen this spread correct to +11 as of the time of writing.
Interestingly, 60% of Georgetown vs. Providence spread bettors are laying the points with the Friars, but those with the respect and resources to move college basketball lines have taken an early position on the road underdog.
Odds via FanDuel. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here.
The aces are sure to be flying on Thursday as two of the more eccentric power-players in the men’s game meet in the third round of the Australian Open. Reilly Opelka will look to keep up his hot play in Australia while Shapovalov is still looking for consistency.
Considering the form of both men, does the underdog deserve more love here? Let’s have a closer look at this matchup.
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Opelka Improving Other Aspects of His Game
For the unfamiliar, Opelka is who we would affectionately refer to as a “servebot,” a player who relies on their serve to win the vast majority of points. While the tall American will never shake that stigma with one of the best serves on tour, he’s done well over the last two weeks to win points from the baseline.
His last match was no exception. Opelka managed to erase a break deficit in the first set against Dominik Koepfer — an opponent who entered with a win in each of their last three meetings. It was an incredibly rare feat, and to come away with another break to take the set was something to marvel at for a player who’s not known for his returning.
Opelka has been piling up big wins for a couple of weeks now in Australia and looking dangerous. He took out Brandon Nakashima in Sydney before falling just short against Andy Murray in an epic three-set affair. He’s been using his forehand as a weapon and hanging tough in rallies. That should help even the score here against Shapovalov.
Shapovalov’s Road to Third Round Has Been Rocky
While Opelka has breezed through the first two rounds in straight-set affairs, Shapovalov’s road to this match has been treacherous. He dropped a set to Laslo Djere — a clay-courter — and struggled to come through in two tight sets. He then blew a double-break lead in the first set against Soonwoo Kwon and went the distance, where he had to dig very deep for the win..
Shapovalov’s serve could have been steadier in that match, getting broken four times in the five sets. His unforced errors also piled up (he had 77), but 81 winners would make up for it in the end. Put simply, he’s continued playing the sloppy brand of tennis which led to his tumultuous 2021 season. While we know how good the Canadian can be with this type of power and skill, we also sadly know how fragile he is.
The good news here for Shapovalov here is that while his first two matches haven’t been the easiest, he does come in on a five-match winning streak dating back to Canada’s win at the ATP Cup. That should give him the confidence he needs entering this match.
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Betting Value
Opelka’s play from the back of the court has been inspiring in the early going, and he is going to be a very tough out here for Shapovalov. His returning is the best it’s ever been, and the big man seems very spry entering this one.
While Shapovalov has more than enough best-of-five experience entering this one and fitness isn’t the biggest concern, fatigue should certainly play its part here. A graphic on ESPN late in the match with Kwon told us that Shapovalov had actually set a personal record for the number of kilojoules burned in a match in what was an incredibly grueling four-and-a-half hour match.
Opelka will have the fresher legs, and in what is essentially a serving contest, that should make a difference. I also think, even though he’s not as strong from the baseline as Shapovalov, that Opelka is playing the cleaner tennis of the two. Judging by his match with Koepfer, he should win more than enough points to pressure the Canadian’s serve and negotiate breaks.
This is the value play here, and the only reason Opelka isn’t the favorite at this point is he’s the less familiar name.
Thursday is truly college basketball’s time to shine.
With college football done and the NFL into its postseason (meaning no more Thursday Night Football), a day that has been dominated by football since August is once again in the capable hands of basketball.
Coincidentally, it’s not a huge NBA night with just a three-game schedule on the docket, allowing college hoops to take center stage with its monster 73-game slate.
While the majority of Thursday’s college basketball doesn’t get underway until 7 p.m. ET, there is a very early appetizer — a 12 p.m. ET standalone game between North Florida and Florida State.
I’m not breaking any news here by saying that North Florida vs. Florida State is unlikely to garner much attention from recreational bettors, but sharps, on the other hand, don’t care when a game is played — all that matters is value.
And according to our college basketball betting tools, North Florida vs. Florida is offering plenty of value.
Let’s take a deeper dive into the early Thursday matchup, including the wager that has professional bettors so excited.
North Florida vs. Florida State Pick
When it comes to North Florida vs. Florida State, all was quiet, eerily quiet, on the smart money front until about 8:18 a.m. ET, and that’s exactly when the wiseguys struck.
At this moment, sharp action flooded the North Florida vs. Florida State over, driving this total from a consensus line of 137.5 up to 138.5 at most sportsbooks across the market.
In fact, Circa Sportsbook, a market-setting shop in Las Vegas, has pushed one point further to 139.5.
Still, maybe because it’s early or because they haven’t seen the action specifically hit their books, there are still some spots at 138, so be sure to shop the market and identify the best number possible if tailing the pros in Thursday’s North Florida vs. Florida State matinee.
While Louisiana sports bettors wait for the official launch, operators have been hard at work gearing up for the big day. Gov. John Bel Edwards signed Louisiana’s sports betting regulation bill in June 2021, allowing as many as 41 mobile operators to enter the Pelican State. The bill allows each of the state’s 20 combined casinos and pari-mutuel horse tracks to partner with two online operators apiece.
When Louisiana online sports betting goes live six sportsbooks will be available for bettors to choose from. They are:
More online sportsbooks could launch in the future. Other gaming operators with existing brick-and-mortar locations in the state like Penn National (Barstool Sportsbook), Churchill Downs (TwinSpires) and Boyd Gaming (Boyd Sportsbook) are expected to pursue licensure and open sportsbooks down the road.
Louisiana is the first state to approve mobile sports betting on a county-by-county (or parish-by-parish) basis. Fifty-six of the state’s 64 parishes approved retail and mobile sports betting in 2020. Sports bettors can place wagers from any approved parish, which includes those around Baton Rouge, New Orleans, Shreveport and most other population centers.
Although mobile sports betting is around the corner, in-person wagering has already begun — Louisiana opened legal retail sports betting in October 2021. Paragon Casino Resort in Marksville accepted the state’s first legal wager at its Betfred sportsbook.
The Pelican State will be just the third mobile wagering market in the South, after Tennessee and Virginia.
For further updates on Louisiana and other states that will legalize online sports betting in 2022 and beyond, check out our legalization tracker.
Odds via BetMGM. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here.
As soon as the men’s draw came out last week, the excitement began to build towards a potential third-round clash between “The Hammer” Matteo Berrettini and young upstart Carlos Alcaraz. The two met in an epic clash last season in Vienna, and if that is any indication then we are in for a real treat.
With a big match comes a multitude of betting options. I think I’ve picked out the right way to go about this, and I’ll explain why below.
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Berrettini a Problem-Solver in First Two Rounds
The world number seven has had a very topsy-turvy start to his Australian Open campaign. He battled stomach issues in his opening-round match against Brandon Nakashima, coming through in an impressive and gutsy four-set performance and dedicating the victory to Imodium. Two days later he was feeling better, but he played an unorthodox opponent in Stefan Kozlov, struggling a bit to get a read on the young American and dropping a set in another four-set victory.
The fact that he looked as good as he did in the first round against a very good opponent in Brandon Nakashima and problem solved against the slow-hitting Kozlov are encouraging signs in my eyes. Oddsmakers have other ideas, depressing Berrettini’s price in this match after winning two matches in unconvincing fashion. You can choose to read into them however you want, but I’m not all that concerned.
Berrettini has started to find some form here in Australia after a rough end to last season. He lost to Alcaraz in the Vienna quarterfinal before an abdominal injury forced him to retire from the ATP Finals in his home country in what was an incredibly emotional scene. The Italian number one has won three of his last four matches, dropping just the one match to Daniil Medvedev but taking a set off of him along the way.
Alcaraz Getting Better and Better
The 18-year-old opened around -145 in this matchup before the money came flying in on the fan favorite. Just about everyone wants a piece of Alcaraz these days, and you can’t really blame them. He’s picked up right where he left off last season with two easy straight-set wins in Melbourne. With the victories, Alcaraz has now won seven straight matches, dating back to his win at the ATP Next Gen Finals.
Alcaraz has gotten notably larger since the start of last season, packing even more of a punch with his relentless groundstrokes. He has blown away his competition in Melbourne with power, and with the way he’s running he’s got his eyes set on much more than just a second straight Grand Slam quarterfinal.
The Spaniard holds the advantage in the head-to-head, taking out Berrettini in that aforementioned match in Vienna. Alcaraz found himself a break up in the third set before donating it right back to Berrettini and fighting in a third-set tiebreaker. It was a tight and grueling match, but one which would have been a bit more academic if not for his relatively weak serve. If there’s something not to like here, that would be it.
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Betting Value
The steam has moved this line to a semi-ridiculous place. Alcaraz does have Grand Slam experience and a 1-0 advantage in the head-to-head, but context is always important. While Alcaraz did get past Stefanos Tsitsipas at the US Open last season to achieve the biggest win of his career, he also fell behind two sets to one to Peter Gojowcyzk the following match then was forced to retire in the quarterfinal.
The bottom line here is that while Alcaraz is destined for the top five in the near future, this moment in time may not be his. He still needs to improve his serve and gain more match fitness, learning how to sustain multiple best-of-five matches in a week or two’s time.
I do think Berrettini is a bit undervalued here given the nature of his first two wins and that Vienna match. The fact is, he’s more accomplished and, at worst, on the same level as Alcaraz. The only people to defeat him at Grand Slams last year were Novak Djokovic and himself, pulling out of the Australian Open with an injury.
The Italian packs a real punch, and I’d take him over anyone in a ball-bashing contest. That’s what this should turn into, and I think Alcaraz’s struggles on serve could help Berrettini get a nose in front. I’m expecting him to win two sets at the minimum in this one.
Odds via PointsBet. For tips on how to watch tennis, click here.
Victoria Azarenka’s start to the 2022 Australian Open has been perfect. Azarenka has dropped seven games in her first two rounds combined, dominating from the baseline and showcasing why she’s still a huge threat in women’s tennis.
In the first round against Panna Udvardy, Azarenka put together a complete performance in the 6-3, 6-1 victory. The world number 25 won 80% of her first serves and only was broken once all match. On return, she won 59% of Udvardy’s service points.
Against a clay-courter in Udvardy, Azarenka knew she had to play within herself. She hit 13 winners compared to 16 unforced errors, and while she came to net only ten times, she won nine of her net points.
In the second round against Jil Teichmann, a player who can play on hard courts and whose lefty game gave players fits last season, Azarenka was even more impressive.
The world number 25 beat Teichmann 6-1, 6-2, winning 69% of her service points while not getting broken. Teichmann only won 31% of her service points and was broken in four of her seven service games. Azarenka was in full control of the baseline, but once against played within herself, with 12 winners and 13 unforced errors.
Elina Svitolina has had a rockier road to the third round. In the first round against Fiona Ferro, Svitolina took down the Frenchwoman 6-1, 7-6(4), but Ferro served for the second set and allowed her level to drop.
Svitolina did a good job on return, winning 51% of her return points and her serve was good enough, winning 65% on that front. She actually had a positive winners to unforced errors ratio, with 27 winners compared to 22 unforced errors.
In the second round against world number 107 Harmony Tan, Svitolina looked more pedestrian. She only won 59% of her service points in this match, was broken five times, and this time the usually-rock solid Ukrainian hit 32 winners compared to 43 unforced errors.
Svitolina was also a bit fortunate (from a tennis perspective) that Tan injured herself, eventually having to retire with Svitolina leading 6-3, 5-7, 5-1.
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Betting Value
This is a classic matchup between a powerful baseline-centric player in Azarenka and a really good counterpuncher in Svitolina. However, Azarenka is clearly playing the better tennis of the two players.
Whether it be her two dominating performances in Melbourne, or even beating world number six Paula Badosa and getting a set off of world number nine Iga Swiatek in Adelaide, Azarenka has rocketed out of the gates in 2022. It’s truly been an incredible resurgence, highlighted by her Indian Wells final appearance last season.
Svitolina, on the other hand, went 0-2 in the warmup events and just hasn’t looked herself. Her shots aren’t as deep in the court, she’s more prone to unforced errors, and less willing to grind than she used to be.
When looking at Elo ratings, it’s important to note that Azarenka has a 70.1 greater overall Elo rating and a 68.2 difference on hard courts. Azarenka has the overall seventh-best Elo rating and sixth-best on hard courts.
At the end of the day, there’s nothing Svitolina can do here to hurt Azarenka. The Belarusian has plenty more firepower from the baseline and, while Svitolina may be a bit more consistent from the baseline, with the depth on her shots lacking, Azarenka won’t have problems taking control of rallies.
While past head to head meetings don’t mean much, it is worth noting that Azarenka would have covered today’s 3.5-game handicap in all four of their previous matches
Odds via FanDuel. For tips on how to watch tennis, click here.
Amanda Anisimova has had a dream start to the season in Australia. She won the Melbourne Summer Set 2 warmup event,defeating Aliaksandra Sasnovich in the final 7-5, 1-6, 6-4.
Then, after a disastrous first set of the Australian Open which saw her down 2-6 to qualifier Arianne Hartono in half an hour, Anisimova settled in and started to control her groundstrokes better once again.
In the first set, Anisimova only won 42% of her service points and was broken three times in four service games. However, in the second and third sets, she won at least 60% of her service games and was only broken three times in the two sets combined. On the other hand, after only breaking Hartono once in the first set, Anisimova broke Hartono five times in the last two sets.
Ultimately, while it wasn’t the American’s best performance, it was enough to advance with a 2-6, 6-4, 6-3 victory.
In the second round, against Olympic gold medalist Belinda Bencic, Anisimova would have to be much better. And the world number 60 answered the call.
Anisimova comfortably beat Bencic 6-2, 7-5 on the back of 28 winners compared to 24 unforced errors. Anisimova also won 74% of her first-serve points while holding Bencic to 58% of her first serves won and 38% of her second serves won. Anisimova broke the Bencic serve five times in ten service games.
Naomi Osaka has also had an impressive beginning to her Australian Open. After aninjury to her abdomen caused her to pull out of the Melbourne Summer Set 1 warmup event, Osaka has looked healthy and dangerous in her opening two matches of the Open.
Facing Maria Camila Osorio Serrano in the first round, Osaka put together a professional performance, only getting broken once while winning 67% of her service points and 44% of her return points.
Osaka won6-3, 6-3, putting a ton of pressure on all aspects of Osorio Serrano’s game while not allowing the grinder to establish herself from the baseline. While there were times Osorio Serrano frustrated Osaka, she was ultimately able to hit through the Colombian.
In Osaka’s next match she played Madison Brengle, another player who is very baseline-centric and lacking power. Osaka punished the weaker Brengle game during her 6-0, 6-4victory over the American.
Despite return being the strength of the Brengle game, she was only able to break one time, and Osaka dominated on return. The four-time slam champion was able to win 78% of her first serves and she hit 37 winners compared to 32 unforced errors.
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Betting Value
This is a fascinating showdown between two players who, given a different draw, could be meeting at a much later stage of the tournament.
Anisimova still has times where she’s spraying unforced errors, such as the 16 she hit in the first set against Hartono, but overall she’s doing a much better job of hitting with controlled aggression.
Can she hang in there against an in-form Osaka, though? Osaka has the ninth-best overall Elo rating and third-best on hard courts. It’s important to note that Anisimova’s Elo is much better than her current ranking of 60. Anisimova has the 31st-best overall Elo and has the 26th-best on hard courts.
Those ratings accurately, if not underestimate, Anisimova’s current level. With tennis savant Darren Cahill now on her team, the American’s game has gone to another level. She’s doing an excellent job of being aggressive on weaker serves and short balls, putting opponents on the run almost instantly during points.
We know that Osaka is going to serve huge, hit powerful groundstrokes and try to take control from the baseline.
But given how Anisimova’s playing, I feel confident that she can at least match Osaka to the extent of sending this match over the total.
Odds via Caesars. For tips on how to watch tennis, click here.
Rafa Nadal will get his first real test of the Australian Open when he faces Karen Khachanov in the third round.
The 20-time slam champion hasn’t dropped a set since arriving in Australia for the start of the year, winning the Melbourne Summer Set tournament in three straight-set victories and getting through his first two Aussie Open opponents without any trouble.
Nadal beat the American Marcos Giron with an absolutely dominant service performance that included a 71% first serve rate and a 68% win rate behind his second serve. You’re not going to beat Rafa when he’s putting up those numbers, and Yannick Hanfmann wasn’t able to take any advantage of a far worse serving performance.
Against the powerful German, Nadal posted just one ace against five double faults while only making 54% of his first serves. The Spaniard was simply too good on the ground, creating 16 break points and limiting Hanfmann to two.
Khachanov has looked really good in his opening rounds, which came against Denis Kudla and Benjamin Bonzi. Both players are strong off the ground, so Khachanov’s effective performance off both wings has served him well. The Russian has hit 107 winners in his first two rounds, which indicates an emphasis on aggressive first strike tennis, which he’ll have to do against Nadal.
However, that type of style leaves him open to a problem he’s dealt with for his whole career, which is spells of loose play. Khachanov has totaled 83 errors in that span, and while he can get away with that without much fuss against Kudla and Bonzi, he’ll have to be tighter against one of the best defenders of all time.
Shots that would go for winners against most players often won’t against Nadal, and that has caused trouble for Khachanov in the past, as he’s taken just one set in seven meetings against him. In those matches, seven of seven tiebreakers have gone the way of Nadal, an indicator that Khachanov’s propensity for losing focus in big moments has killed him against a mental warrior in Nadal.
Does he have any chance of turning the tide in a massive spot?
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Betting Value
While Khachanov has struggled brutally in pressure moments against Nadal, he’s been able to cause problems for him on frequent occasions.
They certainly haven’t been enough to register anything productive, but the hitting style that Khachanov plays with can take the racquet out of even the best players at times. That means free points will be vital for Khachanov, and we’ve seen in the past that generating them can keep him tight with Nadal.
In their last two meetings, which came in 2019, Khachanov amassed three tiebreakers in four sets, partly due to the 19 aces and just one double fault that he hit. Khachanov obviously wasn’t able to take any of those breakers, but he’s going to have an advantage on serve in this matchup if current form holds.
Khachanov’s 36 aces and four double faults through two rounds are a very encouraging sign, especially when Nadal’s ratio is eight-to-seven. That doesn’t account for service winners, but it could create a big edge for a player that sorely needs it.
I have faith in Khachanov’s ability to continue his good form, and while fading Nadal isn’t a historically profitable play, there are genuine reasons to believe that Khachanov can generate some of the magic that he found at the US Open in 2018.
The PGA TOUR heads out west to California for the 2022 The American Express.
The tournament is usually a Pro-Am played at three different courses: PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Course, and La Quinta Country Club. Last year, with the Pro-Am being dropped, the round at La Quinta Country Club was also dropped. This year the event will be played at all three courses once again.
Therefore, each golfer will play two rounds at PGA West Stadium Course, one round at PGA West Nicklaus Course, and one round at La Quinta Country Club. The Stadium Course is a 7,113-yard par 72 that was designed by Pete Dye in 1986. The Nicklaus Course is a Par 72 measuring 7,159 yards. La Quinta Country Club is a par 72 measuring 7,060 yards. All of the courses are short for a Par 72 and typically play easy, resulting in some low winning scores.
The 2022 The American Express field is a full-field event comprised of 156 golfers. Some notable entrants to the event include Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Phil Mickelson, Matthew Wolff, Scottie Scheffler, Sungjae Im, Abraham Ancer, and Tony Finau.
We’ve back tested past tournaments at these two courses to see which metrics matter this week.
Bet the American Express at Caesars and get a $5,000 risk-free first bet.
Let’s take a look at several metrics for PGA West to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:
Strokes Gained: Approach
The American Express is another tournament where distance off the tee is not going to be a major factor. With none of the three courses being long this week, strong iron players tend to do very well at PGA West.
All three courses this week are among the easiest on TOUR. In order to win, golfers are going to have to go very low. Creating as many chances as possible to make birdies from 15 feet and in this week will be crucial.
Total Opportunities Gained in past 24 rounds:
Jason Dufner (+37.1) (+27500)
Russell Henley (+25.6) (+3300)
Tom Hoge (+23.2) (+11000)
Jon Rahm (+21.5) (+650)
Chan Kim (+20.8) (+35000)
Proximity 150-175
Approach shots from 150-175 are the most common yardages year after year at The American Express.
Proximity 150-175 in past 24 rounds:
Christian Bezuidenhout (+12.0) (+5500)
Adam Svensson (+11.9) (+14000)
Russell Henley (+11.8) (+3300)
Patrick Cantlay (+10.7) (+900)
Sepp Straka (+10.4) (+22500)
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
With small greens, there are very few three-putts in this event. Golfers will need to ball strike their way to low scores with smaller greens than TOUR average.
With two of four rounds on the Pete Dye designed PGA West, it will be important to target players who excel on Pete Dye tracks. Golfers with good history at these styles of course tend to pop up on leaderboards of Dye designs on a regular basis.
Total Strokes Gained: Pete Dye in past 24 rounds:
Abraham Ancer (+45.7) (+2500)
Patrick Cantlay (+43.5) (+900)
Brian Harman (+39.5) (+7500)
Justin Rose (+34.0) (+4000)
Jon Rahm (+32.1) (+650)
Statistical Model
Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.
These rankings are comprised of SG: App (27%); Opportunities Gained (22%); SG: Ball Striking (22%); Proximity 150-175 (13%); and SG: Pete Dye (16%)
Russell Henley (+3300)
Talor Gooch (+3000)
Patrick Cantlay (+900)
Jon Rahm (+650)
Tom Hoge (+11000)
Chez Reavie (+10000)
Adam Svensson (+14000)
Emiliano Grillo (+11000)
Jason Dufner (+27500)
Scottie Scheffler (+2000)
Bet the American Express at BetMGM and get a risk-free bet up to $1,000.
I am incredibly bullish on Justin Rose overall for the 2022 season. At 41 years old, he should still have a few seasons left where he can play at a high caliber level before moving to the next stage in his career.
Rose seems intent on being committed to the PGA TOUR this season and playing in The American Express this week (an event he rarely plays) is proof of that. At the Hero World Challenge, Rose finished in a tie for 9th and ended the week hot as he fired a -6 on Sunday.
Sitting at 47th in the Official World Golf Rankings, “Rosie” is highly motivated and should begin his 2022 season with a chip on his shoulder. Although he hasn’t played at PGA West much, he does have some recent success at Pebble Beach, another shorter West Coast track where he contended for the U.S. Open in 2019. The Englishman has the ability to get hot with the putter on Bermudagrass, which is what we’ve seen many winners of this event do in the past.
In a week where it will be tough to beat the two superstars at the top (Rahm and Cantlay), there is a lot of value on starting a betting card at a great price on Justin Rose.
Michael Thompson +9000
Michael Thompson was one of the most impressive golfers at last week’s Sony Open. The 36-year-old gained 6.5 strokes on approach, which was good for third in the field. He struggled a bit off the tee, but that shouldn’t be much of a detriment at The American Express with the rough not being overly penal on any of the three courses.
In addition to his performance last week, Thompson also has shown he likes playing at PGA West. Last year, he finished in fifth place and also finished ninth at the event in 2019. Early in the season, journeyman golfers who get hot tend to stay hot for a stretch, and Thompson has been a streaky player throughout his career. At close to triple digit odds, it makes sense to see if he can roll the momentum into another strong performance this week.
Phil Mickelson +12000
I still am of the belief that despite being 51 years old, Phil Mickelson is still capable of winning on the PGA TOUR in certain spots. PGA West is one of those spots.
In 2019, “Lefty” finished in second place at The American Express, despite losing 2.0 strokes the field putting, which is uncharacteristic. He also has a third place finish in 2016 with some other solid finishes sprinkled throughout his career. The veteran lives close to the course and has always played some excellent golf in the area. There also might be something to be said for his affinity to socializing during the pro-am. Two weeks after his second-place finish here in 2019, Mickelson won the Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Bet Phil Mickelson at FanDuel and get a $1,000 risk-free bet.
Lucas Glover put in an excellent performance last week at the Sony Open, finishing in fifth place. Glover gained 9.5 strokes on approach, which led the field by a large margin. At a course where approach play will be a major factor with smaller than TOUR average greens, it should be a nice fit for his hot irons.
Glover’s course history at PGA West is a bit up and down, but he may be in a bit of a career resurgence have just won the John Deere Classic in July after a ten-year winless streak (2011 Wells Fargo Championship).
It’s rare that you can bet a golfer who led the field in approach the previous week at well over 100-1 on the odds board. If he can find a way to putt to field average, he has a great chance to contend for the second consecutive week. DraftKings has the best number on Glover.
James Hahn +28000
Despite some up and down form in 2021, I believe James Hahn has some win equity relative to his odds heading into 2022. With two TOUR wins on his resume, he has shown he is capable of getting it done on a week where he finds himself in contention.
The 40-year-old has played some of the best golf of his career on desert tracks on the west coast. He has a fourth place at PGA West back in 2013, but it’s his recent performances on corollary courses that make him stand out this week. Hahn has a fifth place finish at the Shriners in 2020 and a 10th place finish at the Waste Management Phoenix Open last season. The South Korean always plays TPC Scottsdale well, and there has been some obvious carry over on leaderboards between that event and The American Express.
Hahn is a volatile golfer, but as win only bet on a course where longshots have historically come through quite often, he is worth a shot. The best number on Hahn can be found at FanDuel.
The PGA TOUR returns to the mainland this week, with The American Express serving as year’s first California-based event.
Since this tournament was shortened to four rounds a decade ago, every winner has posted a total of at least 20-under 268, with 263 in play on half of those occasions.
While low scoring in the pro-am format is predictable, the winners themselves aren’t, as the past 10 years have proven this to be one of the most difficult to handicap on an annual basis.
Winner (Year)
Pre-Tournament Odds (via GolfOdds.com)
Si Woo Kim (2021)
+6000
Andrew Landry (2020)
+20000
Adam Long (2019)
Field bet
Jon Rahm (2018)
+800
Hudson Swafford (2017)
+5000
Jason Dufner (2016)
+4000
Bill Haas (2015)
+2500
Patrick Reed (2014)
Field bet
Brian Gay (2013)
+8000
Mark Wilson
Field Bet
During this time, we’ve witnessed everything from Rahm winning from the favorite position to Landry winning as a 200/1 longshot to three players winning who weren’t even individually listed in many books beforehand.
With that in mind, don’t be afraid to take some chances this week. I’ve listed plenty of players with big prices below, plus my favorite play on the board – a guy who appears ready to win once again.
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Outright Winner
One player to win the tournament.
Matthew Wolff (+2800)
Anyone with even tangential knowledge of the subject understands that last year was a tough one for Wolff, both on and off the course, from his DQ at the Masters to an extended absence afterward.
What some might not realize, however, is that by year’s end, Wolff looked very much like the same player who’d previously been in the fast lane on the road to superstardom. He’s finished 17th-or-better in all four starts so far this season, including a runner-up at the Shriners Childrens Open.
This week, at an event where birdies should be in abundance, the guy who ranks 11th on the PGA TOUR in birdie average could go exceptionally low. I believe that next victory is coming soon for Wolff, a symbolic bridge of his return to relevance. In fact, I think he’ll not only win this year, but contend for a major again, climb back into the world’s top-10 and make the U.S. Presidents Cup roster.
With odds that aren’t too short this week, this is a high-ceiling play which should look like a great value when we review it in months to come.
Bet Matthew Wolff at BetMGM and get a risk-free bet up to $1,000.
The opening odds Monday morning show a pair of big-time ball-strikers making their 2022 debuts as severely underpriced, though I’m guessing that by the time I finish typing this sentence, some early sharp money will move them to a more sensible number.
In any case, if you can get ‘em at something close to 55/1, I don’t mind it – just as I don’t mind either for what should be low-owned OAD plays with some obvious value.
Adam Hadwin (+6500)
While some of your fellow OADers are undoubtedly watching PGA TOUR events on a weekly basis and using the betting markets to help assess their choices, some of the less-involved poolers will simply examine recent history and make a decision based on prior results.
In those scenarios, Hadwin should be a very popular play, considering last year’s T-32 was preceded by four straight top-six finishes, including a pair of runners-up, one of which featured a third-round 59.
He’s obviously comfortable on these courses, but if you play him in OADs, just know that it could be a very chalky pick.
Luke List (+6500)
I’m on the record as saying that this will finally be the year when the 37-year-old breaks through for his first career PGA TOUR win. I don’t know that this is the perfect place for that prediction to come to fruition – he owns just one top-10 finish in seven starts and was T-21 last year – but List is a guy I’ll certainly be watching anytime he tees it up against a less-than-stellar field.
I don’t love him at 65/1 for betting purposes, but if you’re not burning one of the 5-10 top players in this one, he’s certainly a viable alternative for OADs.
Plenty of players would be overjoyed at the prospect of a top-five finish this week, but those guys aren’t ranked 14th in the world and without a victory yet. I’m guessing Scheffler might not say it publicly, but he’s gotta be growing tired of consolation prizes.
With three top-five finishes in his last four starts and an impressive 10 already in his young career – including a third-place finish at this one two years ago – it’s only a matter of time until Scheffler finally breaks through and claims a trophy. Until then, though, let’s keep backing him to pile up those potentially frustrating top-fives.
Top-10
One player to finish top-10.
Sahith Theegala (+1800 for top-10)
I very nearly swung for the fences and made this 250/1 longshot my favorite outright play this week. Instead, I’ll hedge just a bit and list Theegala for a top-10, but I obviously don’t mind a shot on him at that massive outright price, as well. An all-everything collegiate player at Pepperdine – he won the Haskins, Hogan and Nicklaus awards – the California native is on the verge of big things at the professional level and history suggests it could happen here in his home state. We won’t be able to get him at these current odds for much longer; I was worried that an opening 65 at last week’s Sony Open would hurt his number for this week, but three subsequent rounds of “only” 69 left him in a share of 48th place and left his price untouched. I strongly encourage a play on him in some form until the books finally realize his impending potential.
Bet the American Express at Caesars and get a $5,000 risk-free first bet.
Last year’s FRL at this event, Hagy finished T-21 for the week. His past results suggest he’s more of a course horse than most others; essentially, he tends to play well at some of the same events each year. One of the game’s longest hitters and a guy with plenty of firepower, I like him when scores are low and birdies can be made in bunches.
There is a little caveat emptor at play here, though. Hagy was brutal in seven starts to begin this season, with just four made cuts and nothing inside the top-50. Here’s hoping he turned things around during the lengthy break.
Top-30
One player to finish top-30.
Trey Mullinax
If we’re holding our nose this week while playing Hagy, due to those latest results, then we’ll be doing the same with Mullinax, who hasn’t made a paycheck since the second week of October.
Then why should we like him here? Well, the price is right, first of all, but he’s also got a few other trends helping him out. He’s never missed the cut in three previous starts at this event and while he failed to reach the weekend at Waialae, his ball-striking numbers were all above field average, suggesting he’s primed for some better things.
Top-40
One player to finish top-40.
Kevin Tway
Look, I’ll admit it: There’s a lot to sneer at in these prop plays. A runner-up finish in Houston last fall remains Tway’s only finish better than 30th in his past 10 starts.
Again, though, against this field, I’m looking for some big prices to pop and Tway is a guy who could/should be on the rise after a couple of tough years.
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A safe plug-and-play option for DFS.
Patrick Cantlay
With plenty of solid lower-priced options this week, there’s a decent chance you’ll want to spend up for one of the studs. Well, here’s the part where I attempt – perhaps unconvincingly – to recommend Cantlay over tourney fave Jon Rahm in DFS platforms.
Now, don’t get me wrong: This isn’t some “Fade Rahm” position. He’s obviously talented enough to beat up on fields superior to this one; in fact, he won this event in 2018 and was solo sixth the following year, which was the last time he played here. There are, however, two reasons why I won’t necessarily target him. The first is that I’m always wary of a player who fared well at a specific event, then took it off his schedule. Maybe Rahm just felt like he needed an extra week of rest in the past two years, maybe he didn’t want to suffer through the pro-am format. There have been other events in the past few seasons where Rahm might have been playing for reasons other than getting the competitive juices flowing and going after a victory; this might be one of those circumstances or it might not. But it leads to the second reasons why I’d rather not play Rahm here.
Since he first reached No. 1 in the world a year-and-a-half ago, he’s played 31 tournaments. He’s only missed three cuts during that span, but they’ve been three curious ones. Instead of majors or other big-time events, he’s MC’d at the Wells Fargo Championship, Fortinet Championship and the Estrella Damm Andalucia Masters. That’s not a huge sample size, but there’s at least some results to suggest that he might not be fully committed against inferior competition. That brings us to Cantlay, whose record during the same time period isn’t quite as sterling – of course, nobody’s is compared to Rahm – but he has shown a desire to grind out results when he’s not necessarily playing against his fellow elite-level stars.
Last year’s runner-up finish at this event is only one of those examples, but there’s certainly reason to value the reigning POY in these types of situations over the guy he beat last season. I’ve written many times already that I’m very bullish on Cantlay this year.
While I won’t be chasing his low price in the betting markets this week, if I’m spending up in DFS, I’ll clench my teeth and take him over Rahm.
DFS ‘Dog
A lower-priced option for DFS.
John Huh
We all have a blind spot and I’ll admit that among my many of ‘em, I’m terrible at predicting DFS ownership percentages. Luckily, our folks at Fantasy Labs take that task out of our hands each week. When those percentages are revealed, my guess is that Huh won’t have a big number next to his name. He often goes overlooked, as if his last name is the reply to any question about rostering him. He’s got some nice metrics this week, though, having made 6/7 cuts at this event, including a T-21 last year.
As for recent form, well, he MC’d last week, though it was largely due to an ice-cold putter; prior to that, he’d finished top-15 in two of his previous three starts. In what should be a week with some unforeseeable names on the leaderboard, I don’t mind taking some chances. With a guaranteed three rounds this week, you’re assured of 54 holes anyway.
This one could pay off nicely.
Alex Goodlett/Getty Images. Pictured: Rickie Fowler.
First-Round Leader
One player to post the low score Thursday.
Rickie Fowler
Let’s start this section with a caveat: I’m writing this preview on Monday morning, more than 24 hours before this week’s tee times will be released, so I’m taking a bit of a guess here.
Last year, with no pro-am portion of this event due to COVID, it was played on two different courses – the Nicklaus Tournament Course and the Stadium Course. This year, it’s back to the usual three-course rotation, with La Quinta involved, as well. Going back to 2020, the last time all three venues were used, La Quinta owned the lowest scoring average, followed by the Nicklaus, then the Stadium. Without question, my suggestion is to wait on FRL plays until those tee times are out, then give a little more thought to those with the little (LQ) next to their names.
I’d like to have a little equity on Fowler this week; should he indeed be one of those starters on La Quinta or even the Nicklaus, I think FRL is a decent way to get involved. It’s no secret that Rickie hasn’t had his best stuff over the past few years, but this tends to be a good spot for him, even when he’s struggling elsewhere. Two years ago, his T-10 result ranked as his second-highest finish of the entire year; last year, a T-21 was better than each of his previous eight starts.
My outlook on Fowler for the entire year is what I would term “cautious optimism,” but this is a decent week to buy more than you’ll sell.
Matchup Man
One player who should beat comparable players.
Talor Gooch (+2000)
As I’ve so often written, my favorite matchup bets are those which give us two chances to win. What do I mean by that? I want a player who usually makes the cut, meaning H2Hs against trunk-slammers will pay out on Friday.
I also want a player who can climb the leaderboard on the weekend, winning these bets on Sunday, too. OK, fine – we’re all looking for that high-ceiling/high-floor on a regular basis, but it’s an especially valuable combination for these plays. In any case, Gooch has it.
He currently ranks sixth on the PGA TOUR in consecutive cuts made with 10, which is more than anyone else in this week’s field. He’s also finished 21st-17th-4th at this event over the past three years. That’s enough to warrant a look in various type of bets, but I’ll especially target him in matchups this week.
Also Receiving Votes
Other players who should provide value.
Doug Ghim (+13000), Dylan Frittelli (+15000), Wyndham Clark (+15000), Taylor Pendrith (+18000), Nate Lashley (+30000)
Andy Lyons / Getty Images. Pictured: Sungjae Im
The Big Fade
One top player to avoid at this tournament.
Sungjae Im (+1800)
I’m reversing course on Sungjae after he was one of my favorite plays last week, only to MC at the Sony Open. Not to be overreactive, but there are plenty of signals that when he misses a cut, it usually takes a while for him to find his game again. Over the past two years, there have been eight previous instances of Im failing to reach the weekend. In those circumstances, these are his results in his next start: 39th-9th-56th-14th-13th-17th-MC-35th.
None of that is terrible, of course – and I’m not sure there are a ton of players with better records following an MC – but for a player who’s fourth on the board entering this week’s event, I’m not exactly optimistic about his chances of retaining value at this one. I’ll need to see a solid finish or two before I hop back on the Sungjae train.
The Western Conference-leading Phoenix Suns visit the surging Dallas Mavericks, who just played the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday night.
Will the Suns’ rest come into play against a Mavericks team that has been red hot of late?
Let’s break it down.
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No Ayton, No Problem for Phoenix
The Phoenix Suns will be without Deandre Ayton for Thursday night’s showdown, but they’ve managed without him due to their depth at Center between JaVale McGee, Jalen Smith and even … Bismack Biyombo.
Maybe it’s perception, but the Suns are doing this quietly. They are 34-9, with a 2.5-game lead on the Warriors in the West. Phoenix is six games ahead of the Bulls, who are in first place in the Eastern Conference.
The Suns are the best team in the league in terms of record and they have the second-best Adjusted Net Rating in the NBA (+7.3). They have the fifth-best Adjusted Offensive Rating (112.7) and the third-best Adjusted Defensive Rating (105.4). Phoenix performs well on both sides of the floor, and it can hang with any team late in games with elite shotmakers like Chris Paul and Devin Booker.
Not only are the Suns able to score effectively in the half-court, but they can also score in transition. They do not push the pace much, but they score 129.9 points per 100 transition plays., third-best in the NBA, and even if you can slow Phoenix down, they score 97.8 points per 100 plays in the half-court, fourth-best in the NBA. On the opposite side of the floor, the Suns allow just 88.6 points per 100 half-court plays (second) and 120.0 in transition (12th), per Cleaning the Glass.
Dallas’ Defense Remains Elite
The Mavericks are playing in the second game of a back-to-back and their third game in four days. They are at a clear disadvantage here and although Kristaps Porzingis has played in back-to-back sets, this would be his first since returning from the league’s health and safety protocols. That’s something to monitor considering his injury history and the game last night.
The Mavericks have been exceptional of late. At the time of this writing, they have a +13.1 point differential over the last two weeks with the league’s best defense, allowing just 101.3 points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass.
Dallas’ offense has improved of late due to Jalen Brunson joining the starting lineup alongside Luka Doncic. Brunson helps Doncic facilitate and play without the ball, and it keeps the offense from becoming stagnant.
Since Dec. 1, Dallas has the fourth-best half-court offense at 98.3 points per 100 plays, but the Mavs have struggled in transition, scoring just 115.0 per 100, per Cleaning the Glass.
This matchup puts two red-hot teams against each other. I think there’s value on one side: the Suns.
Phoenix can attack and defend every style of play, while the Mavericks have pigeon-holed their offensive attack into the half-court. Phoenix has an edge due to its versatility.
I also think there’s additional value here due to the rest and the possibility that Porzingis sits. Regardless, I like the line as it is for the Suns. Moreover, this is a spot the Suns have excelled in — they’re 11-6 against the spread and 15-2 straight-up as a road favorite.
I’ll lay the points and expect the Suns to remain hotter than the Mavs. As of Wednesday night, you can still find -1.5 so be sure to get the best number.
Rams vs. Buccaneers will kick off the two-game slate on Sunday. The Buccaneers finished 13-4 during the regular season and secured the No. 2 seed in the NFC. They advanced to the NFL Divisional Round after defeating the Eagles 31-15 in the Wild-Card Round and will have home-field advantage for this contest. The Rams finished 12-5 during the regular season and advanced to the Divisional Round after defeating the Cardinals 34-11.
Kickoff is scheduled for 3 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla. Temperatures are expected to hover in the 40s with mild winds in the 5 to 10 mph range.
The first injury report of the week was released on Wednesday and was crowded: 12 players were listed on the Buccaneers’ side while six players were listed on the Rams’ side.
The Wednesday injury report for the Buccaneers was loaded with 12 players total: Seven offensive players and five defensive players.
The Tampa Bay offensive players listed were running back Ronald Jones II (ankle) and Giovani Bernard (hip/knee), wide receivers Breshad Perriman (hip/abdomen) and Cyril Grayson Jr. (hamstring), center Ryan Jensen (ankle) and right tackles Tristan Wirfs (ankle) and Josh Wells (quadriceps). Jones and Grayson — who were both inactive last week — along with Perriman, Jensen and Wirfs were non-participants in Wednesday’s practice. Jones is dealing with a lingering ankle injury. Bernard and Wells were limited participants.
The Tampa Bay defensive players listed were linebackers Lavonte David (foot), Shaquil Barrett (knee) and Jason Pierre-Paul (not injury related – personal), safety Mike Edwards (elbow) and cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting (hamstring). Murphy-Bunting and Pierre-Paul were non-participants, though Pierre-Paul’s absence was not injury-related. Murphy-Bunting also missed the wild-card round with a hamstring injury. David was limited today while Barrett and Edwards were full participants.
A noteworthy omission from the report is running back Leonard Fournette (hamstring). Fournette had been activated off of injured reserve ahead of the wild-card round, but was ultimately held out of the game due to his lingering hamstring injury. His status will be crucial for the Buccaneers’ run game, especially with Jones ailing as well.
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The Wednesday injury report for the Rams included six players total: four offensive players and two defensive players.
The Los Angeles offensive players listed were wide receivers Brandon Powell (ribs) and Ben Skowronek (back), running back Buddy Howell (hamstring) and left tackle Andrew Whitworth (knee). Whitworth — who left Monday’s game after one play due to a leg injury — and Howell — the team’s fourth-string back who did not play at all in the wild-card round — were non-participants with knee and hamstring injuries, respectively. Whitworth was rolled up on by another player, but avoided a major injury aside from swelling in the knee and ankle. There is major uncertainty if he can play this week, however. Both wideouts Powell and Skowronek played last week and were limited today.
The Los Angeles defensive players listed were safety Taylor Rapp (concussion) and linebacker Troy Reeder (ankle). Rapp is currently in the concussion protocol and missed last week. He did not practice today. Reeder was a limited participant due to an ankle injury.
The Sharks and Kraken face off for the second time this season in a Pacific Division battle. The first-ever matchup between these two teams back in mid-December saw a low-scoring affair with Seattle grabbing the road win 3-1.
Can we expect to see more of the same Thursday night?
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The Sharks Are Running Hot
The Sharks are coming off of a big 6-2 win over the Pacific Division’s second-place Los Angeles Kings, where Timo Meier went berserk scoring five goals in the first two periods. While Timo has been electric on the offensive end all season, the six-goal outing is very uncharacteristic for this squad. San Jose has only scored five or more goals in seven of its last 36 games.
Outside of Meier, the Sharks offense leaves much to be desired. They rank 20th in expected goals per 60 at 5-on-5, 21st in goals per game, 17th in Shots on Net percentage at 5-on-5 and 22nd in power play percentage. San Jose is extremely top-heavy, with just Meier and Hertl accounting for 36% of all the team’s goals this season.
I expect the Kraken to dial in on those two guys, and while Seattle is below-average in almost every aspect of the game, they suffocate opponents’ shooting ability and make life difficult for snipers to find the net.
While San Jose’s offense has been struggling, projected starter Adin Hill has found a groove in net lately. Hill has not allowed more than two goals in five straight starts, including his last effort against the powerhouse Penguins where he stopped 25 of 27 shots.
In front of the net, the Sharks’ defensive numbers illustrate a much different story than their stagnant offense. San Jose ranks 14th in expected goals against per 60 minutes, first in Shots on Net percentage at 5-on-5 and has the 8th best penalty-killing unit in the league.
Kavin Mistry/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Timo Meier, Brent Burns
The Kraken Can’t Generate Any Offense
The Kraken continue their six-game homestand following a shootout win over the Chicago Blackhawks, a low-scoring affair with Seattle notching the 3-2 victory.
Much like San Jose, the Kraken’s offense is very suspect. Seattle ranks 30th in expected goals for per 60, 23rd in Shots on Net percentage at 5-on-5 and 19th in PP%. The Kraken have only scored more than three goals twice in their last 14 games, a stretch of some brutal offensive performances.
I am not quite sure what GM Ron Francis had in mind when constructing this roster during the expansion process, as he seemed to go in the direction of defense and size in a league that is transitioning more towards speed and skill.
Again, like San Jose, the Kraken’s strength rests in their ability to force the opponent to only score difficult chances. The Kraken rank 6th in expected goals against per 60 minutes and 16th in 5v5 Shots Against on Net %.
Sharks vs. Kraken Pick
Both of these teams’ advantages rest with their defenses. Both the Sharks and the Kraken rank in the top half of the league in expected goals against and Shots Against on Net percentage, while at the same time they both rank in the bottom half of the league in expected goals created and Shots on Net percentage.
The trends also suggest a low-scoring affair, as the Sharks have stayed under 5.5 in five of their last six games while the Kraken have stayed under 5.5 in three straight contests.
Just like their first meeting, I think this game will stay under the total.
The Pac-12 is slowly developing into a two-team race for the regular season crown.
Arizona is the current favorite (+105), but UCLA is not too far behind at (+160). USC, which once looked like a possible competitor, has begun its descent back to mediocrity. Meanwhile, there’s a new Pac-12 team quickly rising the ranks after a slow start to the year.
Here are three storylines around the conference over the last couple of weeks, including a deep dive into what is lining up to be the game of the year in the conference.
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Oregon Makes a Statement
In the last State of the Pac-12 article, I wrote about how Dana Altman seemed to have righted the ship in Eugene, and the Ducks’ real test would come during their LA road trip against UCLA and USC.
The end result? Two gigantic resume-boosting wins.
This mixed bag of Power 5 misfits have finally begun to gel, and fans are starting to see the ceiling of this Oregon team. We saw 28 points from Jacob Young in the overtime win against UCLA and 16 from De’Vion Harmon a couple days later against USC.
Also, N’Faly Dante has returned to full health, and the offense is slowly becoming less of a one-man band and a more well-rounded team of scorers.
It is also important to note that in games where Will Richardson has at least 16 points, the Ducks are 9-1. That lone loss was a second-half collapse against Baylor, a game that could’ve easily swung in Oregon’s favor.
There’s still a long way to go with this Ducks team. They struggle defending the interior — 281st in 2-point defense — and allow too many second-chance opportunities. But they’ve taken a huge step in the right direction, and their schedule only lightens up from here.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Oregon rip off a double-digit win streak and continue its recent success. No more fading the Ducks, who are a completely different team since they started out 0-2 in Pac-12 play.
USC Slips
After a 13-0 start to the season, USC has lost two of its last three. The Trojans were completely outplayed from start to finish by Oregon on their home floor, but that Stanford loss was a breakdown.
The glaring weakness for this Trojans team is free-throw shooting. They are the sixth-worst team in the entire country at the charity stripe, shooting 61.3%. In that loss to the Cardinal, the Trojans missed 11 free throws in an eventual six-point defeat.
This is still one of the four best teams in the Pac-12, but it is beginning to fall back down to earth. Length will continue to be a driving factor toward the Trojans’ success, as they still rank seventh in eFG% and fifth in 2-point defense.
It will be interesting to see if USC is able to hold close leads down the stretch.
The Trojans’ next biggest test is Thursday when they travel to Boulder to take on Colorado. The Buffaloes have lost just one game on their home floor and hold a sparkling 9-1 record inside the CU Events Center.
With USC’s recent losses to Stanford and Oregon, it’s become all but a two-team race for the Pac-12 crown. And on January 25th, the current favorite, Arizona, travels to Pauley Pavilion to take on UCLA.
Since the Wildcats’ loss to Tennessee, they’ve responded with three straight blowout wins. And that lone loss came when two of Arizona’s three leading scorers — Christian Koloko and Azuolas Tubelis — battled foul trouble. Neither eclipsed the 20-minute mark.
That just proves how talented this Arizona team is. Tommy Lloyd has all the pieces for a National Championship contender. There’s not one area where the Wildcats lack.
They have the most assists per field goals made in all of college basketball. They’re the second-tallest team in the country. And they boast a top-15 offense and defense!
The Bruins on the other hand returned to action after a near-month break, and have gone 3-1 since, with their lone loss coming to Oregon in overtime.
While Johnny Juzang has continued to fill his role as the star of the offense, one player that has been a pleasant surprise is Tyger Campbell. The playmaker of the offense, Campbell has taken a huge step in year three.
I know it’s still early, but he’s become an incredibly efficient scorer to combine with Juzang, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Jules Bernard. All four players average 12.6 points per game or more, with none shooting better from the perimeter than Campbell (47.3%).
Looking at this from a matchup perspective, if any team has a shot at taking down Goliath, the Bruins are best built for it.
All eyes will be on Juzang and Bennedict Mathurin, who will surely go head-to-head offensively. We saw how Juzang completely took over in March, and we have seen Mathurin’s potential against top-tier opponents like Illinois and Tennessee.
For me, I’ll be keeping an eye on how UCLA combats Arizona’s size on the interior.
Myles Johnson and Cody Riley should be able to help slow down Koloko and Tubelis, but Mick Cronin will have a huge decision to make on whether he’ll play both bigs together, or trust 6-foot-7 Jaquez Jr. against one of the Wildcats’ interior players.
KenPom currently projects this game in favor of UCLA by one. I give the slight edge to Arizona here, but anything can happen at Pauley Pavilion.
I’ll be looking to get in this game live after seeing how both teams game plan for this top-25 matchup.
The league’s hottest team continues their west coast swing, as the Colorado Avalanche head to Los Angeles to take on the Kings. The Avalanche are undoubtedly a powerhouse and are currently the favorites to hoist the Stanley Cup.
The Kings are coming off weak performances against the Sharks and Lightning. Next up is defending their home ice against the Avs.
Can the Kings pull off the big upset, or will Colorado be too much to handle?
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Avalanche Coming to End of Difficult Stretch
It is no secret that the Avs are one of the best teams — if not the best — in the NHL. Colorado has just two losses in its last 15 contests, a league-low in that span, with both of those losses coming against division-rival Nashville.
With that said, the Avalanche may find themselves in a tough spot on Thursday night. Colorado comes to Los Angeles on the second half of a road back-to-back, playing its third game in four nights. No matter how much of a wagon a team is, that is a demanding stretch.
The Avs have been a different team on the road than they have when defending their home ice, as eight of Colorado’s 11 losses this season have come on the road. More recently, the Avalanche have either lost or gone to overtime in six of their last 10 road games.
Quick Could Power Kings vs. Colorado
The Kings are out to defend home ice following two contests that saw them outscored by a combined 12-6. I think there is reason to be optimistic in a rebound game for Los Angeles despite the red-hot Avs coming to town, though, and that reason is Jonathan Quick.
Quick got shelled Monday night against San Jose, allowing six goals on just 17 shots. This performance is extremely uncharacteristic of him, as he has been nothing short of spectacular this season. Quick ranks first in the league in 5-on-5 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) per 60 minutes. That gives Los Angeles a massive advantage over Avs goalie Darcy Kuemper, who ranks 27th.
The last time Quick got shelled like he did against San Jose, he followed It up with a solid performance that saw him allow just one goal. Returning to home ice is a great spot for some positive regression, as Quick has been one of the league’s best between the pipes this season.
Just as Colorado is a much weaker team on the road, the Kings are a much stronger team at home, with 13 of their 20 wins coming on home ice. More recently, Los Angeles has either won or gone to overtime in seven of its last 10 home contests.
I think the Kings are getting far too much value here with the better goaltender and catching a team on the second half of a road back-to-back and playing its third game in four nights.
While the Avalanche are undoubtedly a better team, the analytics suggest that the price should not be this high for the Kings. These teams’ analytics are fairly even, as the Kings have the advantage in 5-on-5 expected goals for per 60 minutes, while Colorado has the advantage in 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60.
With the underlying numbers illustrating a closer matchup than the price states, and the Kings having a far superior goalie in net, I think a Double Chance bet on the Kings is the way to go.
Odds are that if you are reading this article you are aware of double chance bets, but for those who are not, a double chance bet is one where you win whether your side wins or the game goes to overtime. Even if your team loses in overtime, the wager is still a winner.
Below are the projected starting lineups for each team playing on Wednesday’s NBA slate, along with notable injury news for each squad. For real-time injury updates, check out our FantasyLabs NBA news page.
NBA Injury News
9:30 p.m. ET Update: LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony (Back) and Dwight Howard (Knee) will play for the Lakers. Malcolm Brogdon (Achilles) and Jeremy Lamb (Knee) are active for the Pacers. Richaun Holmes (Conditioning) will have a minutes restriction for the Kings. Marcus Morris (Personal) is out while Luke Kennard (Conditioning) will play for the Clippers. Killian Hayes (Hip) is out Wednesday for the Pistons.
7:30 p.m. ET Update: Jrue Holiday (Ankle) is active for the Bucks. Gary Trent Jr. (Ankle) is out Wednesday for the Trail Blazers.
7 p.m. ET Update: Maxi Kleber (Knee) and Reggie Bullock (Knee) will both play Wednesday for the Mavericks.
6:30 p.m. ET Update: Alex Caruso (COVID Protocols) will be limited to 22-24 minutes against the Cavaliers. CJ Elleby (Ankle) is available to play for the Trail Blazers.
6 p.m. ET Update: Robert Williams (Personal) is out for the Celtics. Kelly Oubre Jr. (Conditioning) will play Wednesday.
5:30 p.m. ET Update: Wendell Carter Jr. is out for the Magic against the 76ers.
LeBron James (Abdominal) is probable to play for the Lakers against the Pacers in the last game of the night at 10:30 p.m. ET at crypto.com Arena. James has been listed as probable with the same injury all month and has not yet missed a game due to the injury.
Jrue Holiday (Ankle) is questionable to return to the Bucks lineup after missing six straight games since January 5th. Malcolm Brogdon (Achilles) is questionable to return for the Pacers after missing their last two games. Kelly Oubre Jr. (Conditioning) is questionable to return for the Hornets after clearing COVID protocol.
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Projected Starting Lineups
Brooklyn Nets vs. Washington Wizards (7 p.m. ET)
Nets Projected Lineup
PG – Kyrie Irving
SG – James Harden
SF – Kessler Edwards
PF – LaMarcus Aldridge
C – Day’Ron Sharpe
Injury news: Paul Millsap (Personal) is out, Kevin Durant (Knee) is out, Joe Harris (Ankle) is injured, DeAndre Bembry (Back) is out, and Nic Claxton (Hamstring) is out.
Wizards Projected Lineup
PG – Spencer Dinwiddie
SG – Bradley Beal
SF – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
PF – Montrezl Harrell
C – Kyle Kuzma
Injury news: Nothing new
Orlando Magic vs. Philadelphia 76ers (7 p.m. ET)
Magic Projected Lineup
PG – Cole Anthony
SG – Gary Harris
SF – Franz Wagner
PF – Chuma Okeke
C – Mo Bamba
Injury news: E’Twaun Moore (Knee) is out, Michael Carter-Williams (Ankle) is injured, Markelle Fultz (COVID Protocols) is out, Jonathan Isaac (Knee) is injured, and Wendell Carter Jr. (Hamstring) is out.
76ers Projected Lineup
PG – Tyrese Maxey
SG – Seth Curry
SF – Tobias Harris
PF – Furkan Korkmaz
C – Joel Embiid
Injury news: Danny Green (Hip) is out, Ben Simmons (Personal) is out, Shake Milton (Back) is out, and Matisse Thybulle (Shoulder) is out.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Atlanta Hawks (7:30 p.m. ET)
Timberwolves Projected Lineup
PG – D’Angelo Russell
SG – Anthony Edwards
SF – Jaden McDaniels
PF – Jarred Vanderbilt
C – Karl-Anthony Towns
Injury news: Jordan McLaughlin (COVID Protocols) is out, and Jaylen Nowell (Ankle) is probable.
Hawks Projected Lineup
PG – Trae Young
SG – Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot
SF – Kevin Huerter
PF – John Collins
C – Onyeka Okongwu
Injury news: Clint Capela (Ankle) and Bogdan Bogdanovic (Knee) are out.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Boston Celtics (7:30 p.m. ET)
Hornets Projected Lineup
PG – Terry Rozier
SG – LaMelo Ball
SF – Gordon Hayward
PF – Miles Bridges
C – Mason Plumlee
Injury news: Kelly Oubre Jr. (Conditioning) is questionable.
Celtics Projected Lineup
PG – Payton Pritchard
SG – Jaylen Brown
SF – Jayson Tatum
PF – Al Horford
C – Grant Williams
Injury news: Marcus Smart (Conditioning) is out, Robert Williams (Personal) is out, Bol Bol (Foot) is out, and Aaron Nesmith (Ankle) is out.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Miami Heat (7:30 p.m. ET)
Trail Blazers Projected Lineup
PG – Anfernee Simons
SG – CJ McCollum
SF – Robert Covington
PF – Nassir Little
C – Jusuf Nurkic
Injury news: Norman Powell (Personal) is out, Larry Nance Jr. (Knee) is out, Damian Lillard (Abdominal) is injured, Cody Zeller (Knee) is out, Dennis Smith Jr. (Ankle) is probable, and CJ Elleby (Ankle) is probable.
Heat Projected Lineup
PG – Tyler Herro
SG – Jimmy Butler
SF – PJ Tucker
PF – Max Strus
C – Bam Adebayo
Injury news: Kyle Lowry (Personal) is out, Markieff Morris (COVID Protocols) is out, Victor Oladipo (Quad) is out, Tyler Herro (COVID Protocols) is out, KZ Okpala (Wrist) is out, and Marcus Garrett (Wrist) is out.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Chicago Bulls (8 p.m. ET)
Cavaliers Projected Lineup
PG – Darius Garland
SG – Evan Mobley
SF – Isaac Okoro
PF – Lauri Markkanen
C – Jarrett Allen
Injury news: Rajon Rondo (Hamstring) is out, Ricky Rubio (Knee) is out for season, and Lamar Stevens (Knee) is out.
Bulls Projected Lineup
PG – Coby White
SG – DeMar DeRozan
SF – Alfonzo McKinnie
PF – Ayo Dosunmu
C – Nikola Vucevic
Injury news: Zach LaVine (Knee) is out, Derrick Jones Jr. (Knee) is out, Lonzo Ball (Knee) is out, Patrick Williams (Wrist) is injured, and Javonte Green (Adductor) is out.
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Memphis Grizzlies vs. Milwaukee Bucks (8 p.m. ET)
Grizzlies Projected Lineup
PG – Ja Morant
SG – John Konchar
SF – Ziaire Williams
PF – Jaren Jackson Jr.
C – Steven Adams
Injury news: Tyus Jones (COVID Protocols) is out, Kyle Anderson (COVID Protocols) is out, Dillon Brooks (Ankle) is injured, Killian Tillie (COVID Protocols) is out, Desmond Bane (COVID Protocols) is out, Tyrell Terry (Illness) is out, and Shaq Buchanan (COVID Protocols) is out.
Bucks Projected Lineup
PG – Grayson Allen
SG – Wesley Matthews
SF – Khris Middleton
PF – Giannis Antetokounmpo
C – Bobby Portis
Injury news: Brook Lopez (Back) is injured, and Jrue Holiday (Ankle) is questionable.
Toronto Raptors vs. Dallas Mavericks (8:30 p.m. ET)
Raptors Projected Lineup
PG – Fred VanVleet
SG – Scottie Barnes
SF – OG Anunoby
PF – Pascal Siakam
C – Chris Boucher
Injury news: Goran Dragic (Personal) is out, Khem Birch (Nose) is out, and Gary Trent Jr. (Ankle) is out.
Mavericks Projected Lineup
PG – Luka Doncic
SG – Jalen Brunson
SF – Dorian Finney-Smith
PF – Kristaps Porzingis
C – Maxi Kleber
Injury news: Reggie Bullock (Knee) will play, Sterling Brown (Foot) is out, and Maxi Kleber (Knee) will play.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs (8:30 p.m. ET)
Thunder Projected Lineup
PG – Josh Giddey
SG – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
SF – Lu Dort
PF – Darius Bazley
C – Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
Injury news: Kenrich Williams (COVID Protocols) is out, and Aleksej Pokusevski (Undisclosed) is out.
Spurs Projected Lineup
PG – Dejounte Murray
SG – Derrick White
SF – Doug McDermott
PF – Keita Bates-Diop
C – Jakob Poeltl
Injury news: Zach Collins (Foot) is injured.
Houston Rockets vs. Utah Jazz (9 p.m. ET)
Rockets Projected Lineup
PG – Kevin Porter Jr.
SG – Eric Gordon
SF – Jae’Sean Tate
PF – Christian Wood
C – Jalen Green
Injury news: John Wall (Personal) is out.
Jazz Projected Lineup
PG – Mike Conley
SG – Donovan Mitchell
SF – Bojan Bogdanovic
PF – Royce O’Neale
C – Rudy Gobert
Injury news: Rudy Gay (Heel) is out, Hassan Whiteside (COVID Protocols) is out, and Donovan Mitchell (Concussion) is out.
Detroit Pistons vs. Sacramento Kings (10 p.m. ET)
Pistons Projected Lineup
PG – Killian Hayes
SG – Hamidou Diallo
SF – Saddiq Bey
PF – Cade Cunningham
C – Isaiah Stewart
Injury news: Kelly Olynyk (Conditioning) is expected to play, Jerami Grant (Thumb) is out, Frank Jackson (Conditioning) is out, Isaiah Livers (Foot) is out, Chris Smith (Knee) is injured, and Killian Hayes (Hip) is doubtful.
Kings Projected Lineup
PG – De’Aaron Fox
SG – Terence Davis
SF – Harrison Barnes
PF – Richaun Holmes
C – Chimezie Metu
Injury news: Tyrese Haliburton (COVID Protocols) is out.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets (10 p.m. ET)
Clippers Projected Lineup
PG – Reggie Jackson
SG – Nicolas Batum
SF – Terance Mann
PF – Marcus Morris
C – Ivica Zubac
Injury news: Nicolas Batum (COVID Protocols) is out, Paul George (Elbow) is injured, Kawhi Leonard (Knee) is injured, Luke Kennard (Conditioning) is questionable, and Jason Preston (Foot) is injured.
Nuggets Projected Lineup
PG – Monte Morris
SG – Will Barton
SF – Jeff Green
PF – Aaron Gordon
C – Nikola Jokic
Injury news: DeMarcus Cousins (None) is doubtful, JaMychal Green (COVID Protocols) is out, Jamal Murray (Knee) is injured, Michael Porter Jr. (Back) is out for season, and Vlatko Cancar (Foot) is injured.
Indiana Pacers vs. L.A. Lakers (10:30 p.m. ET)
Pacers Projected Lineup
PG – Duane Washington
SG – Caris LeVert
SF – Torrey Craig
PF – Domantas Sabonis
C – Goga Bitadze
Injury news: Myles Turner (Foot) is out, Jeremy Lamb (Knee) is questionable, TJ Warren (COVID Protocols) is out, TJ McConnell (Wrist) is out, and Malcolm Brogdon (Achilles) is questionable.
Lakers Projected Lineup
PG – Russell Westbrook
SG – Malik Monk
SF – LeBron James
PF – Talen Horton-Tucker
C – Dwight Howard
Injury news: Anthony Davis (Knee) is out, LeBron James (Abdominal) is probable, Carmelo Anthony (Back) is questionable, Dwight Howard (Knee) is probable, Kendrick Nunn (COVID Protocols) is out.
It was once smooth sailing for USC, which opened the season winning its first 13 games by an average of 15 points per game. But the ship has now hit rocky waters over the last three games, with losses to Stanford and Oregon followed by a 10-point win over Oregon State in which is had to rally as a 15-point favorite after trailing at halftime
This is the time to straighten this ship as the program travels to Colorado, which has yet to post an impressive victory to its resume. The Buffaloes are 12-4 with all 12 victories coming against teams that rank outside the top-50, according to KenPom.
They’ve faced three opponents that rank in the top-50 in UCLA, Tennessee and Arizona and lost all three of those matchups by an average of 15 points.
Colorado was lucky to sneak past some of the cake walk opponents this season, needing overtime to defeat Montana State and Duquesne. The group lost to Southern Illinois and beat Brown and Eastern Washington by just one possession each.
USC may be on a bit of a downward trajectory, but the Trojans they being undervalued against an unproven Colorado program?
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USC Looks to Get Back on Track
USC dropped 11 spots in the AP Top 25 after its recent struggles. Much of that can be attributed to the Trojans playing three games in a five-day span after returning from a 19-day layoff due to COVID issues.
The defense has been another sour spot for the program since returning from the pause. The Trojans held every opponent to below 40% shooting from the field in the first dozen games. In the four games back, each opponent has surpassed that mark. The Trojans will now match up against a Colorado offense that has struggled hitting shots this season and will have a good opportunity to get back to its defensive roots.
Offensively, USC has four players averaging double-digit points and the group is led by Isaiah Mobley. The 6-foot-10 forward is putting up 15 points and 9.2 rebounds per contest while hitting 44% from behind the arc. Chevez Goodwin, a 6-foot-9 senior, is averaging 13 points to go along with 7 rebounds.
USC is the third-tallest program in the country and can exhibit four players standing 6-foot-7 or taller on the floor at any given time. That size has led the Trojans to a top-30 offensive efficiency ranking and the second-best offensive rebounding mark in the Pac-12. It’s also the reason that the Trojans defend inside the perimeter so well, holding the fifth-best 2-point defense in the nation.
Colorado is coming off an 18-point home victory over Arizona State. But that was the Sun Devils’ second game in 27-days and rust was clearly a major factor as they shot just 33% from the field.
The Buffaloes own a well-balanced offense with six players averaging seven points or more. Jabari Walker is the leading scorer with 13 points per game, but he’s only hit 23% of his 3-point attempts. He’s scored double-digits in 14 of his 16 games this season, but was shut down by Arizona and held to four points.
Colorado has hit just 32% from 3-point territory (237th) and 50% inside the perimeter, which ranks 151st nationally. The offense has averaged 71 points per contest and that comes against a relatively easy schedule. In the games against top-25 opponents, the Buffaloes have averaged a measly 56 points per game.
The Buffaloes have been mediocre defensively, owning the 67th defensive efficiency ranking. In their six conference games, they have allowed 35% from 3-point range, which ranks 10th in the Pac-12.
An important factor will be how they defend inside the arc, as that’s where 59% of the USC points come from. On the season, they have allowed teams to hit 47% from that range. But the group allowed Arizona, Tennessee and UCLA to hit 75-of-116 2-points attempts, good for a staggering 65%.
USC vs. Colorado Betting Pick
Colorado has beaten up on bad teams this year and been exposed by good competition. The Buffaloes allowed a staggering 65% on 2-point attempts in their three matchups against top-25 competition. That’s a major issue as USC thrives at scoring in the paint with its size advantage.
USC dominates the paint defensively, owning the fifth-best 2-point defense. Colorado only takes 31% of its field goal attempts from behind the arc and hit at a 32% clip. It’s safe to say that Colorado will struggle to find buckets in this matchup.
USC is primed for a big bounce-back spot and has had five days off to prepare after its recent struggles. Colorado has owned this matchup at home in the last four years, but its time that the Trojans get over the hump.
Anytime the two Big Ten universities located in the state of Indiana square off in hoops, it’s a big deal. This year’s first matchup feels just a little bit bigger.
Purdue has legitimate Final Four aspirations in 2022, and this very well may be the best team Matt Painter has had in his tenure in West Lafayette. The Boilers don’t really have a weakness and Painter can comfortably go nine to 10 deep in his rotation.
For Indiana, the Mike Woodson era has gotten off to a pretty solid start thus far. The Hoosiers have let a couple of games slip away on the road, but they are winning the matchups they are supposed to win.
What makes Thursday night’s contest even more intriguing is the fact that the Boilermakers are going for their 10th consecutive win in this rivalry.
You read that correctly, Indiana has not beaten Purdue since February of 2016.
Can Purdue pile on another win at Assembly Hall, or will Indiana rise up and end the skid against its in-state rival? Let’s get into it.
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Purdue Boilermakers
The Boilers enter this game coming off of a massive road victory in Champaign over the Illini. Purdue sits at 15-2 on the year, with the only losses coming at the buzzer at Rutgers and at home to Wisconsin.
Much of the Boilers’ success can be credited to sophomore guard Jaden Ivey. Ivey will be a top-10 pick in next year’s draft, and is making an impact on both ends of the floor. He has improved in pretty much every statistical category from his freshman year, most notably, his 3-point shooting percentage.
On the inside, the two-headed monster of Zach Edey and Trevion Williams has been absolutely dominant. Painter rarely plays these two together, which helps both to be very fresh when on the floor.
Williams has been the closer in end-of-game situations, and he seems to always deliver when he catches it on the block in crunch time.
Lastly, and what will be key in Thursday night’s matchup, are the shooters that Purdue has to spread the floor. Sasha Stefanovic has really hurt Indiana in prior meetings, so the Hoosiers will need to make sure they have eyes on the senior at all times.
Indiana Hoosiers
As good as the start to the year has been for Indiana, the Hoosiers have yet to deliver that statement win. Indiana led by double digits in the second half in Madison, but couldn’t quite finish the deal against the Badgers.
Thursday night presents another opportunity for a big splash that could really catapult the Hoosiers as the year goes on.
The key reason to Indiana’s success this season has been its defense. Indiana enters this game ranking 12th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
Moreover, the Hoosiers check in at third in Effective FG%, and are holding opponents to under 30% shooting from 3-point range.
On the other side of the ball, All-American candidate Trayce Jackson-Davis has been Mr. Reliable for the Indiana offense. The junior forward is really hard to cover 1-on-1 on the block, and he is relentless on the offensive glass.
Indiana will need Parker Stewart and Miller Kopp to step up and knock down some shots to be able to hang around with the potent Purdue offense.
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Purdue vs. Indiana Betting Pick
This game is going to be appointment television on Thursday evening.
The interior matchups of Williams and Edey squaring off against Jackson-Davis and Race Thompson will be fascinating to watch. Both teams will need their bigs to stay out of foul trouble in what is bound to be a very physical game.
Most teams that play Purdue this year are going to be at a significant disadvantage on the interior. I don’t think that’s the case with the Hoosiers.
Jackson-Davis came back to Bloomington to play in matchups like this, and I believe he is bound for a big night at home.
Lastly, as someone who attended 20-plus games in my four years in Bloomington, I am very aware of how loud Assembly Hall can get. I expect the building to be on another level on Thursday night.
Given Indiana has the front line to hold its own against Purdue, home-court advantage and some capable shooters from the outside, I think the value lies with the Hoosiers as a short home underdog in this game.
I’m going to play it safe and take the 3.5, but I certainly don’t hate a play on the money line either.
I’m looking forward to sitting back and watching the 40 minute dogfight that this one will be. Give me the Hoosiers and the points.
Outside of Houston’s Thanos-esque inevitability, the American has been something of a mystery box this year. The second-best team changes constantly, and both of these squads have had their turn in the spotlight.
Memphis was the preseason darling, and after a couple early stumbles, the Tigers destroyed Alabama and Wichita State while winning four of five.
Key injuries have sapped them of playmakers, though. That has crippled the offense, leading to two straight road losses and a disappointing 9-7 record (3-3 in the league).
SMU, meanwhile, entered the year with Tim Jankovich sitting squarely on a scorching hot seat. A 3-3 start — with losses to Missouri and Loyola Marymount — did nothing to quell those concerns.
Lo and behold, though, the Mustangs have gotten hot. They have now won 10 of their past 11, including key victories over Vanderbilt, Dayton and UCF. They sit alone at 4-1 in the American — second in the conference — and the stock ticker continues to point up.
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Southern Methodist Mustangs
For the Ponies, it all starts with their devastating offense, led by one of the country’s best guards in Kendric Davis.
“King Kendric,” as I call him, has emerged as a sneaky All-American candidate. He leads the AAC in scoring, ranks third in assists and currently has 46.7%/40.2%/89.0% shooting splits (FG, 3P, FT).
He’s lightning quick and has the ball on a string, allowing him to get wherever he wants on the floor. Shooters dot the perimeter around him, and Davis feeds Emmanuel Bandoumel and Zach Nutall a steady diet of open jumpers.
Michael Weathers is another terrific slasher who takes advantage of the Ponies’ tremendous spacing
A physical frontcourt adds to the onslaught, with Marcus Weathers — Michael’s brother — and Tristan Clark battering foes on the glass. The Mustangs did recently lose Isiah Jasey for the season, straining their depth up front.
Jankovich may have to lean more into small ball without Jasey.
Memphis Tigers
The Tigers’ struggles are well-documented. After copious offseason hype, they have become a punching bag for many (myself included).
Context matters, though. Memphis is just 1-3 without DeAndre Williams, a versatile forward who makes plays for others and cleans up many of the messes left by a young team.
Additionally, point guard Alex Lomax has been out for multiple games, and Landers Nolley II (the Tigers’ best shooter) missed the loss at East Carolina.
The Tigers have still thrived with relentless rim attacks, though. Thanks to Jalen Duren, Malcolm Dandridge, Josh Minott and even Lester Quinones, they rank sixth nationally in offensive rebound rate and 10th in free throw rate.
Few teams can handle the wave after wave of high-level athleticism Penny Hardaway has at his disposal.
Where those athletes have surprisingly struggled is on the defensive end. Three straight foes — and eight of 11 — have scored better than 1.0 points per possession. That’s stunning for a team that should be a total pain to score against.
The interior defense has been stout — Memphis is 25th in 2P% defense and fourth in block rate — but the Tigers surrender too many open shots. Lackluster on-ball defense and sloppy rotations have allowed opponents to feast on the perimeter. That could be an issue against SMU’s prolific snipers.
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SMU vs. Memphis Betting Pick
With his incredible quickness, “King Kendric” can will live in the lane against this Memphis defense. But if Memphis is smart, it will force the diminutive dynamo to finish over size at the rim rather than help off of shooters. That is a gigantic if, however.
On the other hand, Memphis could overwhelm a Jasey-less SMU in the paint. Plus, the Tigers’ best effort this season came against Alabama in a hype home spot after a multi-game losing streak. In that spot once again, Memphis could come out throwing haymakers.
This one ultimately comes down to the number and player availability. With Williams, Nolley, Lomax and Jayden Hardaway all classified as true “game-time decisions” by Penny, betting this one overnight is a serious challenge.
My best recommendation is to track Williams’ status. Without him, I think the over is a great bet up to 155. If he’s in, then I like Memphis up to -7. Not all players matter, but Williams definitely does!
Pick: Over 152.5 if Williams is out | Memphis -6 if Williams plays
Click for American Express outright odds via PointsBet.
Player
Odds
Jon Rahm
+600
Patrick Cantlay
+800
Scottie Scheffler
+1800
Sungjae Im
+2000
Seamus Power
+2500
Tony Finau
+2500
Abraham Ancer
+2800
Corey Conners
+2800
Talor Gooch
+2800
Matthew Wolff
+3300
Russell Henley
+3300
Patrick Reed
+3500
Cameron Tringale
+5000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
+5000
Justin Rose
+5000
Rickie Fowler
+5000
Si Woo Kim
+5000
Will Zalatoris
+6000
Alex Noren
+6600
Jhonattan Vegas
+6600
Luke List
+6600
Adam Hadwin
+7000
Carlos Ortiz
+7000
Charles Howell III
+7000
Michael Thompson
+7000
Brian Harman
+8000
Russell Knox
+8000
Taylor Moore
+8000
Jason Day
+9000
K.H. Lee
+9000
Lucas Glover
+9000
Adam Long
+10000
Adam Svensson
+10000
Andrew Landry
+10000
Brendan Steele
+10000
Brendon Todd
+10000
Cameron Champ
+10000
Chez Reavie
+10000
Chris Kirk
+10000
Denny McCarthy
+10000
Doug Ghim
+10000
Gary Woodland
+10000
Harold Varner III
+10000
Hayden Buckley
+10000
Kevin Streelman
+10000
Lanto Griffin
+10000
Patrick Rodgers
+10000
Phil Mickelson
+10000
Sebastian Munoz
+10000
Aaron Rai
+12500
Alex Smalley
+12500
Andrew Putnam
+12500
Danny Lee
+12500
Emiliano Grillo
+12500
Kramer Hickok
+12500
Patton Kizzire
+12500
Tom Hoge
+12500
Troy Merritt
+12500
Vincent Whaley
+12500
Adam Schenk
+15000
Brandt Snedeker
+15000
Chad Ramey
+15000
C.T. Pan
+15000
Davis Riley
+15000
Dylan Frittelli
+15000
Francesco Molinari
+15000
Henrik Norlander
+15000
Hudson Swafford
+15000
John Huh
+15000
Rory Sabbatini
+15000
Scott Piercy
+15000
Scott Stallings
+15000
Taylor Pendrith
+15000
Wyndham Clark
+15000
Zach Johnson
+15000
Dylan Wu
+20000
Greyson Sigg
+20000
Hank Lebioda
+20000
Harry Higgs
+20000
Joseph Bramlett
+20000
Matthew NeSmith
+20000
Nick Hardy
+20000
Nick Taylor
+20000
Robert Streb
+20000
Andrew Novak
+25000
Ben Kohles
+25000
Brian Stuard
+25000
Bronson Burgoon
+25000
Cameron Young
+25000
Doc Redman
+25000
Graeme McDowell
+25000
J.J. Spaun
+25000
James Hahn
+25000
Jason Dufner
+25000
JT Poston
+25000
Lee Hodges
+25000
Max McGreevy
+25000
Pat Perez
+25000
Peter Uihlein
+25000
Roger Sloan
+25000
Ryan Moore
+25000
Sahith Theegala
+25000
Sepp Straka
+25000
Tyler Duncan
+25000
Tyler McCumber
+25000
Wesley Bryan
+25000
Anirban Lahiri
+30000
Austin Smotherman
+30000
Brandon Wu
+30000
Brice Garnett
+30000
Camilo Villegas
+30000
Chan Kim
+30000
David Lipsky
+30000
Jonathan Byrd
+30000
Kevin Chappell
+30000
Kevin Tway
+30000
Luke Donald
+30000
Nate Lashley
+30000
Peter Malnati
+30000
Richy Werenski
+30000
Sam Ryder
+30000
Austin Cook
+35000
Brandon Hagy
+35000
Chesson Hadley
+35000
Jim Herman
+35000
Justin Lower
+35000
Kurt Kitayama
+35000
Sung Kang
+35000
Trey Mullinax
+35000
Brett Drewitt
+40000
David Skinns
+40000
Jimmy Walker
+40000
Michael Gligic
+40000
Nick Watney
+40000
Paul Barjon
+40000
Seth Reeves
+40000
Seung-yul Noh
+40000
Bill Haas
+50000
Brian Gay
+50000
Callum Tarren
+50000
Chris Stroud
+50000
Curtis Thompson
+50000
Davis Love III
+50000
Dawie van der Walt
+50000
James du Preez
+50000
Jared Wolfe
+50000
John Pak
+50000
Jonas Blixt
+50000
Joshua Creel
+50000
Kelly Kraft
+50000
Kyle Mendoza
+50000
Mark Wilson
+50000
Martin Trainer
+50000
Scott Gutschewski
+50000
TJ Vogel
+50000
Stephen Stallings Jr.
+50000
Scottie Scheffler has been close before, but he’s yet to earn his first career victory on the PGA TOUR. Will that change at this week’s The American Express?
Bettors sure hope so.
According to data released by BetMGM on Wednesday morning, Scheffler is shaping up to be one of the sportsbook’s biggest liabilities in the outright market.
Scheffler is +2000 to win the tournament, which has top players Jon Rahm (+600) and Patrick Cantlay (+900) at the top of the oddsboard. The Texan in second in total bets this week at La Quinta Country Club.
Scheffler has played five tournaments in the official 2021-22 season, with three top-4 finishes. He was second at the Hero World Challenge in December, second at the Houston Open in November and fourth at Mayokoba. This will be his first tournament since December 5.
The player with the both the most bets and total dollars taken in the outright market is Abraham Ancer, making him the book’s biggest liability should he win. Ancer is down to +2500 from his opening number of +3300. His missed cut at last week’s Sony Open isn’t worrying bettors.
Tony Finau is the third-biggest liability of the week for BetMGM. at +2500, Finau is third in total handle. Only Ancer and Rahm have taken more dollars than him this week.
The longshot getting attention is Adam Hadwin at +8000. He’s in the top 10 for most bets and dollars, although his odds have held steady at the same price.
The trendy underdog seeing his market move is Michael Thompson, who is down to +6600 from his opening odds of +8000. Thompson is popular in the outright, placing and DFS market this week.
Bills vs. Chiefs will be the second of two games on Sunday to put a bow on the NFL Divisional Round. The Chiefs finished 12-5 during the regular season and secured the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Kansas City beat Pittsburgh 42-21 at Arrowhead Stadium, where this game will also be played. The Bills finished 11-6 during the regular season and advanced to the Divisional Round by routing the Patriots 47-17.
Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET at Arrowhead. Temperatures are expected to hover in the 40s with winds in the 10-15 mph range.
The second injury report of the week was released on Thursday and was busier than the last: One player was listed on the Bills’ side and eight players were listed on the Chiefs’ side (three more from Wednesday).
The Thursday injury report for the Bills was lean once again. Defensive end Mario Addison (shoulder) was the lone Buffalo player listed. He was limited for the second day in a row due to a shoulder injury that he suffered in the second half of Sunday’s game against the Patriots.
The Thursday injury report for the Chiefs featured three new additions: linebackers Willie Gay (NIR-Personal) and Anthony Hitchens (back) and left tackle Prince Tega Wanogho (rib). Gay was a non-participant for personal reasons, while Hitchens and Wanogho were limited participants with back and rib issues, respectively.
Running back Darrel Williams (toe) and cornerback Rashad Fenton (back) were the other DNPs on the report; neither participated in Tuesday’s practice due to toe and back issues, respectively. Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (shoulder), wide receiver Tyreek Hill (heel) and cornerback L’Jarius Sneed (knee) were all full participants for the second day in a row. Edwards-Helaire has been held out of the last three games and was a non-participant in practice last week. His return could be crucial for the Chiefs’ run game with Williams ailing.
Wednesday Update
The Wednesday injury report for the Bills was extremely lean with just one player mentioned. Defensive end Mario Addison (shoulder) was limited due to a shoulder injury that he suffered in the second half of Sunday’s game against the Patriots.
The Wednesday injury report for the Chiefs was relatively light with five players total: Three offensive players and two defensive players.
The Kansas City offensive players listed were wide receiver Tyreek Hill (heel) and running backs Clyde Edwards-Helaire (shoulder) and Darrel Williams (toe).
Edwards-Helaire was a full participant today and has been battling a shoulder injury that has held him out of the last three games. He did not participate at all last week, so a full session is a vast improvement and step in the right direction toward playing this week.
Hill was listed as a full participant due to an injury he suffered in the final week of the regular season. He caught all five targets for 57 yards and a touchdown last week against the Steelers.
Williams did not participate due to a lingering toe injury that held him to just one rush for four yards last week. Backup Jerick McKinnon was the next man up and saw 12 carries for 61 yards and six catches for 81 yards and a touchdown. McKinnon could play a larger role if Williams and Edwards-Helaire miss this game.
The Kansas City defensive players listed were cornerbacks L’Jarius Sneed (knee) and Rashad Fenton (back). Sneed was a full participant with a knee issue while Fenton was a non-participant due to a back injury. Both were on the injury report last week, but Sneed ultimately played while Fenton did not.
NFL Injury Report Glossary
For Daily Practice Statuses
DNP: Acronym for “did not participate” in practice that day.
LP: Acronym for “limited participation” in practice that day.
FP: Acronym for “full participation” in practice that day.
There has been a massive shakeup to the NBA MVP odds board after Kevin Durant suffered a knee injury.
Durant was the +160 favorite during the odds update last week, he has fallen all the way down to +2000. His knee injury isn’t supposed to keep him out for the rest of the season but he will miss significant playing time.
To no one’s surprise, Steph Curry took over as the favorite to win MVP at +160. But Giannis Antetokounmpo is close behind at +280 and Nikola Jokic (+800), Joel Embiid (+1000) and Ja Morant (+1500) are in striking distance.
The players who have fallen on the odds board, though, are the bigger story. Luka Doncic opened as the favorite but has dropped all the way to 50-1.
LeBron James has seen the most movement this season. He’s been as high as 14-1 and as low as 60-1 this season. Now, he finds himself in the middle and not out of contention at 33-1.
PointsBet has also thinned out the betting pool, dropping some players off the board completely, while lowering many longshots from the 150-1 range to closer to 500-1.
Anyone can technically win an MVP, but here are a few criteria the victors usually have:
At least 23 years old, younger than 35
On a great team
Past MVP consideration
Scorer and/or stat-sheet stuffer
Bonus: Poor defense doesn’t disqualify you
The NBA MVP award will generally go to a scorer (and offensive all-around star) on a great team who has been in the mix before. So take those into account when placing any bets.
Let’s dive into each key contender below:
1. Stephen Curry (+160)
The Warriors look terrific, and Curry is the biggest reason for that. He has been in the top two of the MVP race throughout the season and barring anything significant, he should be there at the end.
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2. Giannis Antetokounmpo (+240)
“The Greek Freak” didn’t get off to the best of starts but he is quickly gaining some steam in the MVP conversation. Don’t count out someone that’s already won this award twice and is just now starting to play his best basketball.
3. Nikola Jokic (+800)
Well, well. The reigning MVP entered last season at 25-1 to win the award and is playing as well as ever.
The market is taking notice. All the analytics point to him being the best player in the NBA so far this season, and he’s even stepped up his game defensively. But with his team on the fringes of a playoff spot, he has an outside chance of winning MVP.
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4. Joel Embiid (+1000)
Embiid was just last week +3300 to win this trophy. But the Durant injury and some stellar play over the last few weeks have moved him into contention.
5. Ja Morant (+1500)
The third-year player has really come into his own as a perennial All-Star and elite guard in the league. He seems to have gained lots of momentum over the last week with some highlight-reel plays. This year might not be the year but he should be in the conversation for many years to come.
6. Kevin Durant (+2000)
Durant was the favorite to win MVP as of Jan. 11 but things have changed after he suffered a knee injury that could keep him out until the postseason. Luckily, it wasn’t season-ending but it probably ruined his chances of winning MVP.
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7. LeBron James (+3300)
The Lakers’ early struggles and James missing games had dropped him down the board to 60/1. But with teammate Anthony Davis missing significant time with an injury, James will have to carry the load for the Lakers and it’s worth a flyer for the most popular player in the league.
8. DeMar DeRozan (+3300)
DeRozan is the key cog in the resurgent Bulls lineup and has shot up the MVP odds board as a result.
9. James Harden (+3300)
Harden’s odds rose significantly after the Durant injury. He will be taking on a much bigger role to finish off the season which could allow him to get into the MVP conversation. But it might be too late.
10. Luka Doncic (+4000)
Doncic was the betting favorite at every sportsbook before the season, and with good reason. He’s finished fourth and sixth the last two years, and entered his age-23 season as the focal point of a Mavericks team that was expected to take the next step with him leading the way.
11. Devin Booker (+5000)
Booker is the alpha in Phoenix now with Chris Paul clearly on the backside of his career. The Suns are one of the best teams in the Western Conference but it would take a miraculous second half of the season to catch the MVP favorites.
12. Trae Young (+6600)
Young and the Hawks broke through with a playoff appearance and two series wins in his third season. Would an MVP-caliber next step be too much to ask? Probably, but offense is most of what matters here since his lack of defense won’t hurt him as much as it should.
13. Jimmy Butler (+8000)
The Heat retooled a bit over the offseason and have shown promise when healthy in the Eastern Conference. Butler doesn’t have the offensive output to compete with the names at the top, though. At 32 years old, we know who he is.
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16. Rudy Gobert (+8000)
Gobert is one of, if not, the best defensive players in the league. But his offensive output isn’t good enough to be lifting any NBA trophies.
13. Donovan Mitchell (+10000)
Mitchell tends to find himself in the conversation as one of the top guards in the league. Now it’s time for him to prove it.
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14. Paul George (+10000)
George looked like an MVP-caliber player in the postseason, carrying the Clippers to the franchise’s first Western Conference Finals without Leonard. They’ll be missing Kawhi for the rest of the season, too, so maybe George makes some noise in this race.
15. Chris Paul (+10000)
Paul was in the conversation last season. But as he ages, his role diminishes and he’s no longer the best player on his team.
When Will the 2022 NBA MVP Be Announced?
The NBA MVP award is generally announced at the end of June.
Following a weekend packed with Copa del Rey action, La Liga returns for a midweek slate that includes five matches over three days and a big opportunity in the title race.
The headliner of the fixtures is Sevilla making a trip to Valencia on Wednesday, with a win moving the visiting side to within two points of league leader Real Madrid. This is the game in hand the Andalusian club has over Madrid, which makes it even more vital to take advantage of this opportunity.
As for the other games, Real Betis looks to keep its place in next season’s Champions League with a victory against Alavés, while potential relegation sides Cádiz and Getafe continue their fights to stay in the Spanish top flight.
It should be an entertaining and important set of fixtures, but here are my three best bets of the schedule.
Our first bet comes from the match featuring Celta Vigo and Osasuna, which is a fixture I’m not expecting to generate many goals.
If you look over their last five league games, these two teams have been combining for some of the lowest expected goals numbers. Osasuna’s matches have averaged 2.05 combined xG, according to fbref.com, which is a number that drops below two goals on average if you remove the recent outlier contest against Cádiz.
This is also the same Osasuna team that ranks in top five in the league with just 1.02 xG allowed per match, while also being one of the five worst teams offensively with 0.98 xG per 90 minutes.
As for Celta Vigo, its last five matches have averaged 2.3 combined xG goals, but if you remove the win over Betis that included 3.6 xG, the average drops to 1.98 per outing.
I try to avoid betting over -130 to -135 odds on games, which is why I’ll be playing the total staying under 2.25 goals on the Asian Handicap at -115 odds. If you want the extra protection, I don’t hate laying -150 odds to get the full 2.5 goals on the total, but with either bet, it still takes three goals to fully beat you.
For the most important match of the midweek slate, Valencia hosts second-place Sevilla and I think there’s great value in taking the home underdog.
This game pits together sides that enter the contest on great form, with the visitors undefeated in their last six league games and Valencia picking up 10 points in five outings.
However, Sevilla hasn’t been dominating teams in this stretch, posting a -3.3 xG difference and losing the expected goals battle in four of six games. This is also the same club that has averaged just 0.53 xG per match in that span.
Set pieces are going to play a major role in this match, with the sides combining for 18 goals from set pieces. Meanwhile, Valencia is one of the worst teams at defending set pieces, allowing seven goals this campaign.
At some point, Sevilla won’t be able to get away with poor performances, and in such a high-pressure game on the road, I think this is a great spot to oppose the favorite on either the Draw No Bet line (+120) or Asian Handicap markets.
The final game of the slate is between teams in the bottom half of the table in Getafe and Granada, which is another spot where all of the value lies with the underdog.
The visitors have been on their best form of the season, entering this match undefeated in their last seven in the league with a +1.1 xGDiff during that span.
Meanwhile, Getafe has also been solid the last month with just one loss in its last seven fixtures, including an upset of Real Madrid.
This is still the same side that has only averaged 0.89 xG per match during that stretch and has the lowest season average for the same stat this season (0.71) in La Liga.
Granada has also had a knack of picking up draws away from home, with Athletic Club (eight) only having more away draws than Granada’s six this campaign.
Because of the high amount of stalemates , this is a spot where I’m going to pay up on Granada getting +0.5 on the spread line at -135 odds, but I don’t hate the +0.25 number at +105 if you want a better price.
The Golden State Warriors and Philadelphia 76ers are in two different conferences and two different tiers as we enter the latter half of the NBA schedule.
The Warriors started off dominating the league and, for a while, only the Phoenix Suns seemed like a true match for their dynamic team. They are the clear No. 2 team out West, but their fortunes took a turn recently when their defensive star Draymond Green was sidelined with a calf injury turned back issue. Green is expected to miss at least two weeks and could be out for more depending on the severity.
The 76ers began the season with the drama of Ben Simmons’ holdout hanging over them. That combined with COVID absences caused them to stumble out of the gates, but they have been rolling in recent weeks and currently sit sixth in the East. Injury misfortune to two teams ahead of them — the Chicago Bulls and Brooklyn Nets — and the looming trade of their absent point guard could have a positive impact on the Sixers moving forward.
With that in mind, we’ve turned to our NBA analysts Matt Moore, Raheem Palmer, Brandon Anderson and Joe Dellera, to sort out what we should make of these teams in the short and long term and if there’s opportunities to find a betting edge on either team.
How does the current roster without Draymond Green affect the way you will bet on or against them?
Palmer: The current Warriors roster is solid without Draymond Green, however his impact can’t be understated. He’s primarily responsible for the Warriors’ defensive identity as he’s one of the best and smartest defenders of all time and his ability as a playmaker allows Stephen Curry to play off the ball.
The Warriors should have no problems beating up inferior teams or teams without dominant bigs, but against teams Milwaukee Bucks. they’re likely to struggle while Green is sidelined. The Bucks scored 40 points in the paint their recent 118-99 win over the Warriors.
Before Green’s injury, the Warriors were second in opponent points in the paint (41) and tied for fifth in opponent second chance points (12.2). Since he’s been out, the Warriors are 13th in opponent points in the paint (46) and 23rd in opponent second chance points (15), according to NBA Advanced Stats. We also see the Warriors go from fifth in Defensive Field Goal Percentage (59.4%) in opponent field goals less than six feet to 24th (66.1%).
Of course, some of this is noise due to a small sample size, but it feels like the loss of Green is rearing its ugly head most on defense.
Dellera: The Warriors can survive Green’s injury during the regular season because, as Raheem mentioned, they will play bad teams and they should destroy them.
However, when the Warriors play some of the better teams in the league his absence is notable. Raheem also mentioned the game against the Bucks, and it’s no surprise that Milwaukee steamrolled the Warriors without Green. He’s the favorite to win DPOY for a reason.
Patrick McDermott/Getty Images. Pictured: Draymond Green #23 of the Golden State Warriors.
His impact, and now absence, on offense is notable as well. Green is a key cog for this Warriors’ offense because of his role as a facilitator, a shot creator, and a disruptor. He sees passing lanes before they open up, he works effectively in the pick and roll, and he allows Curry to play off-ball — something no other Warrior does as well.
Losing Draymond caps this team’s ceiling and versatility. They should still breeze by bad teams, but I’ll be cautious before backing them against the league’s best.
Does Green’s injury open the door for DPOY and is there value there for someone else?
Dellera: If I am holding a Green ticket for DPOY, this might be an opportunity to hedge on Rudy Gobert, the clear second choice at +175.
However, we don’t know how much time Green will miss, and if he misses just the two weeks the team mentioned this week, you’ve essentially bought the top of Gobert’s odds.
Justin Ford/Getty Images. Pictured: Rudy Gobert (No. 27) and Ja Morant (No. 12).
If you’re going to take a longshot, those odds are unlikely to change much because Gobert’s odds are so close to Green’s. I’ll likely just sit tight on this award and assess if his injury becomes a lingering issue.
Palmer: I think it does and one name that immediately stands out to me is Mikal Bridges at +2000. The Suns are the best team in the West, so we could see voters reward one of the best wing perimeter defenders in the league if the Green injury is serious enough to knock him out of contention.
Anderson: I do think it opens the door, but I’m not that worried about Green missing a few weeks right now. This is not a stats award, and it’s not one of those awards where we will penalize someone for missing 15 or 20 games as much as the others. If Green comes back in a few weeks and is healthy the rest of the way, I’m still confident he’ll win.
Part of the reason for that is that I still don’t see a great alternate option. I don’t see Gobert winning this (sorry, Joe). The Jazz just aren’t a hot team or one anyone wants to vote for, and I think there will be a lot of Gobert voter fatigue. That’s why Green was my pick for this award back in the preseason when he was at +2800, and I’m still feeling great about that ticket.
I also don’t know if there’s another name I can get too excited about yet. I don’t buy a perimeter player like Mikal Bridges winning it (sorry, Raheem). Cavaliers bigs Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen would likely split votes. Giannis Antetokounmpo already has one.
I might nibble a little on Joel Embiid at +3000 at DraftKings as more of a career achievement award, especially if he stays healthy and the Sixers climb to the top of the East.
As of today, the Warriors are still the favorites to win the West (+225). Are they overvalued?
Anderson: Everything happening with the Warriors makes them a wait-and-see on futures. I’ve said for years that Green is the most important player on this team. He’s Golden State’s identity, and he’s the heart and soul of this team.
Green is older and has always profiled as a player whose game might disappear quickly once it started to go, because of his smaller size as a center and the way he plays. And a back injury is the exact sort of thing that could derail a whole season or even a career.
If the Warriors don’t have a healthy Green, I’m not interested in any Warriors futures — like, not even a first-round series necessarily. He’s just that important.
That means I’m not looking to add to any Warriors positions right now, and it means I’m not willing to bet on Golden State until I see Green back healthy and rolling again for a couple weeks so I can be confident this injury scare is behind us.
Palmer: I’m going to be honest, I’ve never truly been a believer in this Warriors team. Although the Warriors have the league’s top ranked defense, holding opposing teams to 103.5 points per 100 possessions in their non garbage time minutes according to Cleaning The Glass, it’s the offense that’s a concern for me.
Curry is the most unique player in NBA history. His ability to the floor allows for teammates to play three-on-four with his mere presence creating open shots for teammates. He’s like the perimeter version of Shaquille O’Neal in terms of cheating gravity, however he is a smaller guard whose size isn’t ideal for the physicality of playoff basketball.
When the playoffs start and officials are calling fewer fouls and allowing more physicality, what happens when teams start trapping Curry? He is in the midst of one of the worst shooting seasons of his career and while that may not continue, he is getting older so we can’t expect 2016 again. Even with Klay Thompson back, do we really trust Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole and Otto Porter to consistently hit shots?
Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Stephen Curry and Jordan Poole.
One of the big problems the Strength and Numbers Warriors had was not having another player who could bend the defense and create their own shot when Curry was trapped. I’m seeing similar issues on this roster and I believe it can hurt them against teams like the Phoenix Suns, Milwaukee Bucks, Brooklyn Nets and even the Memphis Grizzlies.
With Green’s injury, if it is as serious as it appears to be, the Warriors could be all but drawing dead.
Does the Kevin Durant injury place value on the 76ers in Division (+155) or Eastern Conference (+900)?
Anderson: The Durant injury doesn’t move the needle for me on futures, because seeding is not important for the Brooklyn Nets and I expect KD back healthy by the playoffs. It does affect regular season positioning, and that means it opens the door for the Sixers or others. Theoretically that means value, yes. But I’m not sure the +155 division is the way to bet it.
If Philly does pass Brooklyn, it probably means getting up to a No. 2 or No. 3 seed. At that point, I’d rather bet on Joel Embiid to win MVP and/or Doc Rivers getting some Coach of the Year votes. I don’t think the division odds are juicy enough for the upside of things going right for Philly.
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyrie Irving #11 of the Brooklyn Nets, Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers.
I’ve never been a believer in Embiid personally, but he’s an awesome player and an MVP when he’s healthy and at his best. Right now, at +1600, he’s a very intriguing candidate and a good number. If he actually stays healthy the rest of the way, he has a much better than 5.8% implied chance of winning it. That’s the move here, not just division.
Palmer: It’s very difficult for me to trust this 76ers team.
They’re 16-8 straight up as a favorite, but consistently underperform: They lost as a -670 home favorite against the Atlanta Hawks and as a -360 home favorite against a short handed Miami Heat team. Games like those say a lot about Glenn Rivers’ shortcomings as a head coach. I simply don’t trust this team to win the games they’re supposed to win.
Although Embiid is putting up another MVP caliber season like Brandon mentioned, he is injury prone and this team is one injury to him away from a total collapse.
The rest of this roster is blah, particularly with Ben Simmons sitting out this season hoping for a trade. Until Morey makes a trade to get Embiid some help, I’m not willing to play any futures on the 76ers.
How should bettors approach betting the 76ers ahead of the trade deadline in anticipation of a Ben Simmons move?
Moore: Let’ run through the scenarios.
The Sixers will see their futures remain flat and gain EV if they trade for a composite of role players who can fit around Joel Embiid along with picks. Think of a trade that involves Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby, or DeAaron Fox and Harrison Barnes (preferably Buddy Hield for spacing). This would fill in the holes around Embiid and address central needs (shooting, versatility) around an already effective core.
Unfortunately, this is the least likely outcome.
Morey wants a superstar in return for a superstar and is willing to wait as long as necessary to get one (if that ever happens.)
The Sixers will see their futures shorten, but lose EV if they manage to trade for a star. It’s difficult to identity what star that might be, especially given the confidence from the Washington Wizards that Bradley Beal does not wish to be dealt.
Damian Lillard is almost definitely off the table, so any star that the Sixers can trade for (and Siakam honestly fills this definition as well) is going to be more of a name that an impact player.
The odds will shorten but the biggest area that President of Basketball Operations Daryl Morey tends to very purposefully disregard is fit. With Chris Paul and James Harden, there were fit questions and the two made it to within a game of the Finals and a likely championship. Never mind that a year later that combination imploded.
So if there’s a big name player that doesn’t fit with Embiid, that’s likely optimum return, but that doesn’t help the Sixers in matchup problems in the playoffs or addressing central issues.
The Sixers will see their futures remain flat and maintain EV if they don’t trade Simmons at all, which might be them most likely outcome. The Sixers are underrated in the East right now with the 16th-ranked adjusted offensive rating and 10th-ranked adjusted defensive rating despite injuries and COVID concerns having derailed them.
They’re in a pretty good spot. That may not mean that they can get through the East, but bear in mind that the Nets have no frontcourt defense, the Bucks are still without Brook Lopez and Miami’s offense comes and goes.
If you want sure things you can feel good about, this is not the team for you no matter what. But if they lower the asking price and improve the overall make up of the roster? The Sixers will quietly have value in a vulnerable Eastern conference.
The best team in the NHL (according to the latest Stanley Cup odds) matches up with one of the most surprising teams in the NHL on Wednesday night.
The Colorado Avalanche travel to Orange County to take on the Anaheim Ducks.
The Avs are not only the Stanley Cup favorite but also one of the hottest teams in the NHL. They’re on a three-game winning streak and are 8-1-1 in their last 10 games. The Avs currently sit in first place in the division with a 25-8-3 record.
The Ducks are heading in the opposite direction. They were sitting atop the Pacific Division just a few weeks ago but now find themselves in third, battling for a playoff spot with a 19-15-7 record.
Action Network’s NHL power ratings have identified a play on the total in this game.
Avalanche vs. Ducks Pick
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Avs’ moneyline and puck line bettors are having a profitable season but there’s nothing more profitable than Avs over bettors.
The over in Colorado games this season is 24-8-4. The total has gone over in seven of Colorado’s last eight games.
Our PRO projections project this total at 6.81. The total on most sportsbooks is 6.5, but Fox Bet still has the over/under at 6.
Action Network’s power ratings give over 6.5 a 3.8% edge. And if you’re betting the total at 6, the over has closer to a 10% edge.
Whether you are a trend bettor or a model bettor, the signs are pointing towards the over in this game.
For the first time ever, the NASCAR Cup Series will run the Busch Light Clash (Feb. 6 at 6 p.m. ET, FOX), its annual preseason event, on a quarter-mile track built inside the LA Coliseum.
The Busch Light Clash will have a very unique format as well, including heat races that will ultimately decide which drivers qualify for the main event.
Since this is a very unique event, there is no data to fall back on to truly handicap which drivers should excel in the Busch Light Clash.
But still, oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook have taken on the unenviable task of setting numbers and have opened Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin as Busch Light Clash co-favorites at +550.
Chase Elliott is next at +600, followed by Kyle Busch (+650) and Joey Logano (+700).
Interestingly, last season’s NASCAR Cup Series champion and winner of 10 races, Kyle Larson, is sixth on the odds board at +750.
Below is the full list of 2022 NASCAR Busch Light Clash odds.
Every week during the PGA TOUR season, “The Gimme,” our streaming show on the GolfBet platform, will offer an exclusive prop bet with boosted odds that is available through BetMGM. Here is the breakdown for this week’s Gimme prop.
Bet Phil Mickelson at BetMGM and get a risk-free bet up to $1,000.
Phil Mickelson to finish top-20 (including ties): +450
Old-school golf fans still lovingly refer to this week’s event as simply The Hope — as in comedian Bob Hope, who long served as the tournament’s host back in its glory years.
Over the past dozen iterations of this one, the eclectic list of hosting duties ranged from George Lopez to Arnold Palmer to Yogi Berra. Two years ago, the Phil Mickelson Foundation took over as tournament organizer, leading to its namesake similarly taking over as tournament host.
Since 2000, Mickelson has only missed competing in this event six times — and the 16 that he’s played have tended to be all-or-nothing results for the ebullient lefty.
True to his image as one of the game’s ultimate high-ceiling/low-floor stars, Mickelson has won here twice (2002 and ’04) and also owns a second-place finish, a third and two other top-10s. When it hasn’t gone his way, though, it really hasn’t gone his way, as he’s failed to reach the weekend in three of his last four starts at this event, including each of the past two years.
In fact, betting Phil for a top-20 doesn’t seem to fit his narrative here, as those half-dozen top-10s have only been accompanied by one other result inside the top-20. Based on those previous results, we might be better off only playing him for a top-five or top-10 at a longer number than a seemingly cautious top-20.
Then there’s the fact that in his last 28 starts on the PGA TOUR, Mickelson owns exactly two top-20 finishes. One of them was a T-17 against a limited field at last year’s WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. The other one was his victory at the PGA Championship.
So, yeah, there isn’t exactly a whole lot of equity in a “safe” play on Lefty for a top-20.
Which is exactly why I like it.
Think about it: Mickelson has made an entire career out of doing the unexpected – both on the positive side and the negative. When you think he’ll win, he finds a way to lose; when you think there’s no way he can win, he finds a way.
There’s little in those past results — either at this event or in general over the past couple of years — to suggest a top-20 should be a viable option, but Phil doesn’t often do “viable” too well.
I’m not putting the mortgage on it by any means, but I think there’s some pride at stake, considering the tournament host hasn’t played a Sunday round since he’s taken over, which offers some value here.
With the boosted odds, this feels like a decent time to play Phil — especially if you were going to spend the next few days rooting for him anyway.
Derrick Henry appears to be on his way to returning for the Tennessee Titans in the Divisional Round on Saturday, and bettors are jumping on him now as a potential Super Bowl 56 MVP.
Henry has not played a game since breaking a bone in his foot on Oct. 31, but Tennessee’s star running back has been checking boxes, setting up his return on Saturday.
As a result, bettors have hammered his Super Bowl MVP odds, moving him from +2500 to +2000 and making him BetMGM’s largest liability in the market.
The Titans earned a first-round bye after taking the No. 1 seed in the AFC. They’ll now meet the Cincinnati Bengals at home, a team that allowed just 102.5 yards per game on the ground during the regular season.
Despite playing in just eight games, Henry still led the Titans with 937 rushing yards on the season. D’Onta Foreman finished the year with 566 yards on the ground.
Henry and the rest of the field are chasing regular season MVP favorite Aaron Rodgers on the oddsboard. Rodgers (+400) is just ahead of Patrick Mahomes (+500), who had the advantage of an extra game to throw up video-game numbers against the Steelers in the Wild Card Round. Mahomes threw for 404 yards with 5 touchdowns in the 42-21 win.
Tom Brady and Josh Allen are right there at +600, with Matthew Stafford rounding out the top five at +1000.
Outside of Henry, Rodgers and San Francisco 49ers playmaker Deebo Samuel (+3000) are BetMGM’s biggest potential losses on the award.
During the postseason, NFL lines become even sharper since oddsmakers and bettors have a full season of data to inform their decisions. It’s when the market is as close to full efficiency as it will get all season.
That makes shopping for the best lines even more important, especially when spreads and totals sit around key numbers as they do for this week’s Divisional Round of the 2022 NFL playoffs. I’m going to focus on totals in the following analysis before diving into three of the four on my radar for this weekend.
The chart below shows the frequency of total points scored in all NFL games (including the postseason) since 2015, when the NFL moved the extra point back.
Key Numbers For NFL Totals
It’s worth noting that 80% of all games in this seven-season sample ended with between 30 and 65 total points scored. The 10 most frequent combined points — which all had a frequency of at least 2.65% and are highlighted in the darker green above — include the following:
33 (2.66%)
37 (2.92%)
40 (3.72%)
41 (3.29%)
43 (3.24%)
44 (3.77%)
47 (3.4%)
50 (3.03%)
51 (3.77%)
55 (2.81%)
You should always shop for the best possible number when betting totals, but especially when they’re around a key number. Simply becoming more familiar with those key numbers for totals will make you a smarter bettor. From there, you can monitor your available books and will learn more about the market over time. That’s the art part of betting that simply takes experience, information and a little bit of intuition.
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For the Divisional Round, all four totals are sitting right around one of the above key numbers (listed in order of kickoff):
Bengals at Titans: 47
49ers at Packers: 47.5
Rams at Bucs: 48
Bills at Chiefs: 55
For what it’s worth, playoff unders with a total between 47 and 55.5 points have gone 48-36-2 (57.1%) since 2003, per our Action Labs data. The under hit rates improve even more for games played outdoors at 37-20-2 (64.9%), falling short of totals by an average margin of 2.65 points per game.
All four games this weekend will be played outdoors.
In regards to weather, it will be cold in Nashville and Kansas City, but nothing crazy. The forecast to watch is in Green Bay, where we will likely see frigid conditions with potential impactful winds and even a chance of snow.
I think the Titans-Bengals total is about right, so I have no interest in betting it. However, I do have my eyes on potential under bets in the other three games. Let’s dive deeper into each.
I’m looking at this under, especially if I can get it above 48 (compare real-time NFL odds here). There are variables worth monitoring, namely Nick Bosa’s status and the weather forecast — both could have a significant impact on how this game plays out.
In contrast to the Rams-Bucs affair (which I’ll dive into next), this NFC matchup involves two teams that rank bottom-five in almost every pace category. This game won’t be played at lightning speed.
The Packers’ run defense issues are well documented. They ranked 29th in both Expected Points Added (EPA) per Rush and Rush Success Rate on early downs during the season. However, part of that was driven by scheme. I don’t think their run defense is as bad as it has been in years past, primarily due to a significant improvement in tackling.
The defense as a whole should also receive a major boost with the return of a pair of Pro Bowlers who missed the majority of the season in Jaire Alexander and Za’Darius Smith.
You can expect the 49ers to come out and run, run, run, and run some more. Their game plan might resemble what we saw when these two clubs met in the 2019 season’s NFC Championship Game. San Francisco won it 37-20 despite Jimmy Garoppolo finishing only 6-of-8 for 77 yards. Green Bay’s run defense simply had no answers for a San Francisco backfield that ran it 38 times for 286 yards on a gaudy average north of 7.5 yards per carry.
Not only is that the 49ers’ identity, but questions linger about Jimmy G’s health. He now has a shoulder injury to go along with a thumb injury, both of which could get worse in the freezing cold temperatures at Lambeau Field. I’m sure the Packers will load the box and middle of the field, daring Jimmy G to beat them by throwing to the sidelines.
When these teams met earlier this season in San Francisco, the Packers held on for a 30-28 victory. The total in that game closed at 50.5 and went over thanks to a 27-point outburst in the fourth quarter.
What has changed since then? Well, the 49ers offense is much better than what the Packers saw that day. Elijah Mitchell, who ranks fourth in the league in yards after carry among qualified backs, didn’t play that day. Deebo Samuel has also been unleashed in the running game of late.
Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: 49ers WR Deebo Samuel
The 49ers defense is playing at a much higher level as well.
The secondary was in shambles for the first meeting due to injuries and the defensive line has played at an elite level in the second-half of the season after some schematic changes and under-rated, under-the-radar acquisitions. The defensive line is dominating the line of scrimmage every week and the secondary is arguably in the best shape it has been all year.
It’s still worth noting that the Packers defense held the 49ers to 67 yards on 21 carries in that first meeting. The Green Bay offense has also started slow all year, ranking 25th in average points per first quarter. Therefore, a first-half under might be also worth exploring.
Things could get dicey if Rodgers goes into comeback mode against a 49ers secondary that’s trending up but still has holes. And Jimmy G trying to bring the 49ers back with his arm wouldn’t be doing under backers any favors — whether he’s throwing it to his receivers or Packers linebackers.
These teams met earlier this season in Los Angeles when the Rams pulled out a 34-24 victory. Interestingly enough, the game went over a closing total of 55. Now, the total is a full touchdown below where it settled for the regular-season matchup.
In fairness, this is a postseason game, and it will be played in Tampa this time. Also, the Bucs have lost a few key offensive weapons since, although they didn’t have Antonio Brown for that first meeting and Rob Gronkowski left with a rib injury. The more important factor here is the status of a few key offensive linemen.
Pro Bowl right tackle Tristan Wirfs left their wild-card game with an injury as did swing tackle Josh Wells. If neither are able to go, Alex Cappa would likely get the nod at right tackle and Aaron Stinnie at guard. Additionally, Pro Bowl center Ryan Jensen left that game with an injury to add insult to injury. He’s likely to play, but his status is worth monitoring, and I’m sure neither he nor Wirfs would be at 100% if they do.
The offensive line issues could spell trouble against Aaron Donald and Co. The Rams finished in the top-seven of both Pressure Rate and Adjusted Sack Rate. And the way to neutralize Tom Brady is to generate natural pressure, especially up the middle — something Donald has succeeded doing in the past.
It’s also worth noting that the Bucs defense got a few reinforcements back last week. As a result, they looked as strong as they have in quite some time.
This is still an elite run defense that can neutralize what Rams head coach Sean McVay wants to do to set up the offense. However, if Matthew Stafford can ride the momentum of last week to carve up the Bucs secondary once again, the Rams do have a path to victory through the air against the much more vulnerable area of the Bucs defense. He has had success against the blitz, which Bucs defensive coordinator Todd Bowles loves to bring.
If I were to bet this total, I’d look at the first-half under. The Bucs offense has started slow in the second half of the season, and these are two fairly conservative coaches early in games.
The full-game total scares me a bit if either team has to go into comeback mode, especially once Brady gets cooking. I also fear the Bucs may utilize a super up-tempo pace in order to neutralize the Rams pass rush, especially if the offensive line isn’t at full strength. Tampa’s offensive numbers were elite when it went no huddle this year and the pressure rate dropped to almost nothing in those sets.
Head coach Bruce Arians even hinted at such: “When you look back and do the self-scout, that’s when we’ve been at our best this year, so why not do it more?”
This is still a matchup of two very capable offenses that operate at top-five situational-neutral pace, so an explosion of points could come at any time.
Totals this high are becoming more normal in today’s offensive-friendly NFL, but still not the norm. We have seen 83 instances in the regular season with the under cashing at a 59% clip (49-34) and another 15 in the playoffs.
With this total sitting right at the key number of 55 and just above a semi-key number of 54, getting the best number is critical regardless of which side you prefer.
As you could see in the chart at the top of this story, games have landed on 54 or 55 in more than 5% of games since 2015, including the postseason.
We’ve seen only nine totals in the playoffs that have closed above between 54 and 56 points since 2003, per Action Labs. In those games with totals that span that key range, the under has cashed eight out of nine times by an average margin of 13.5 points per game.
Interestingly enough, the one game that did go over was Bills-Chiefs in last season’s AFC Championship Game. None of the others even eclipsed 50 total points.
It’s also worth mentioning that unders in outdoor games with a total of at least 51 — tied with 44 as the most frequent total points since 2015 — have gone 17-7-2 (70.8%), going under the total by just fewer than six points per game on average.
I do like this under — assuming you can get at least 55. I prefer it at 55.5, though, and wouldn’t play it at 54.5 (shop for the best line here).
So, why am I looking this way in a matchup between two teams that have combined for 62 and 58 points in their two meetings over the past two seasons?
One, I’m apparently an insane person based on other’s responses to when I tell them I’m looking at this under. That may be true, but here’s my reasoning.
Last year, the Chiefs offense did almost all of the damage before the Bills added points in garbage time. Well, in the offseason, the Bills made it a point to bolster the defensive line just for this particular matchup. It knew it had to generate natural pressure on Patrick Mahomes. The results have been great this season as the Bills’ 30.8% pressure rate led the league by more than two full percentage points. Last season, that number was 22.2%.
Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
You saw the Bills’ defensive improvement when these teams meet earlier this season, when the Bills held Mahomes to 4.9 yards per attempt while forcing two interceptions. In last year’s playoff meeting, he averaged 8.3 yards per attempt without a single interception.
It’s also worth mentioning this Chiefs offense is much more methodical in nature in response to opposing defenses (sans the Raiders) making consistent scheme changes to take away the explosive play.
It’s still an elite offense, but we’ve seen some more inconsistencies and the drives are taking much longer on average. Plus, the Bills ranked No. 1 in explosive pass play rate allowed. I do have some concern about the loss of corner Tre’Davious White for this particular matchup, but Buffalo’s secondary has held together without much issue since his injury — although the caliber of opposing pass offenses hasn’t been spectacular to say the least.
Now, in the meeting earlier this season at Arrowhead, the game went over because the Bills offense exploded. Well, that came against a Chiefs defense that was playing at an atrocious level, grading out as the worst in the league in many metrics. That’s no longer the case after getting some guys back healthy and making some schematic changes.
Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo usually has his defense peaking come playoff time, as the Chiefs defense routinely over-performs expectations relative to their regular-season metrics. A lot of that has to do with figuring out which schemes work best as Spags likes to really switch up looks based on the opponent.
Through the first eight weeks of the season, the Chiefs ranked 30th in EPA per Play and 32nd in Success Rate. If you charted them over that span, they were in the same neighborhood as the Texans and Jaguars. However, since Week 9, the Chiefs rank seventh in EPA per play and 17th in Success Rate. That’s a remarkable turnaround and illustrates how different of a unit the Bills will be facing compared to the one they saw earlier this season.
Now, Kansas City did get a bit fortunate in regards to points per opportunity allowed, but there’s no denying the drastic improvement. This is now a competent defense. Buffalo saw a completely helpless unit earlier this season.
These teams also have a lot of familiarity with each other, which I believe favors the defenses in this particular case. This will mark their fourth meeting over the past two seasons. I’m sure the Chiefs will focus on taking away the deep ball, and they now have some tape on Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll unleashing Josh Allen in the run game.
There are many more paths to an under than there are to seeing another shootout, which is certainly possible with these two offenses, but it’s not like we haven’t seen both offenses have a few clunkers this season. And it’s just so hard to duplicate back-to-back sparkling performances in this league after putting up 40+ as both teams did last week.
If you’re looking for another trend to push you over the edge, unders in Chiefs home games with Andy Reid at the helm have gone 47-36-1 (56.6%), including the postseason. That also includes a 5-2 under record in games with totals of 55 or greater, going under by 8.2 points per game albeit in a very limited sample size.
I might end up looking like a fool, but it won’t be the first or last time. I’m biting on the under at 55 or better.
The Big East has been one of the most exciting conferences in basketball this year.
They have a couple of elite teams in Villanova and Xavier and then a bunch of NCAA tournament bubble teams right behind them.
The Marquette Golden Eagles will look to improve their NCAA tournament resume as they go on the road to take on the No. 11 Villanova Wildcats.
Marquette is 12-6 on the season and has started Big East play 0-3. They lost in overtime to Creighton and then lost to Xavier and UConn–two of the best teams in the Big East.
Villanova is 13-4 and is off to a roaring 6-1 start in conference play. They’ve won their last six games after opening with a conference loss to Creighton.
Villanova has covered their last six games while Marquette has covered their last four.
This should be an exciting game of Big East basketball and Action Network has tracked sharp action coming in on one side.
Marquette vs. Villanova Pick
The spread in this game opened at Villanova -11.5. It made some early steam moves and currently sits at Villanova -14 on most sportsbooks, but BetMGM is still showing Villanova -12.5.
Those steam moves likely happened due to sharp action coming in heavily on the Wildcats. Nova is currently getting 30% of the public bets and a whopping 77% of the money.
Although it is likely many of the pro bettors hopped on the line at less than 14, it’s clear that the sharps are on Villanova in this game.
Since Canada legalized single-game betting on Aug. 27, 2021, only a handful of Canadian-based sportsbooks have launched in their respective provinces.
Canadians can bet at sportsbooks like Sports Interaction, Proline, PlayNow, Play Alberta, BetRivers and Coolbet in their provinces, which are limited options for sports bettors.
Here’s a list of potential sportsbooks that could be legalized in Canada in 2022. They’re among the biggest operators in the United States and will look to capture a new market that features millions of sports fans who consume American sports content.
TheScore Bet: Canadian-based company operating in four U.S. states that will launch in Canada at some point this year.
BetMGM: One of the most well-known sportsbooks in the U.S. plans to launch sometime this year and expand their reach throughout casinos in the country.
PointsBet: Within the last several weeks, PointsBet Canada (subsection of PB) was created in Toronto to prepare for an impending launch.
DraftKings: Canadian Gaming Association member and DFS games operator in Canada.
After only two NBA games last night, it’s a fully loaded slate tonight with 13 games on tap. That means a very juice props slate with a ton of options.
Tonight’s three players all have something in common. D’Angelo Russell, OG Anunoby, and De’Aaron Fox are young stars in this league, but they’re stars who have been up and down, both this season and in their careers. Tonight we’ll zoom in on a recent stretch that has each of them heading in a new trajectory and look at how to play that in our favor.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
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NBA Player Props & Picks
D’Angelo Russell Over 9.5 Assists (+600)
Timberwolves vs. Hawks
Hawks -1.5
Time | TV
7:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Best Book
PointsBet
Let’s get aggressive right out of the gates, shall we?
D’Angelo Russell has quietly had a very nice season for the Timberwolves. Karl-Anthony Towns is this team’s superstar and likely All-Star, and Anthony Edwards got next as the new face of the franchise. But Russell’s resurgence has played a big part in this team’s winning ways. He leads the team in On/Off Rating at +7.6 points per 100 possessions, and he’s at 18.6 points and 7.0 assists per game.
The scoring remains inconsistent and inefficient at times, but Russell’s passing genes have always been clear, and he’s starting to put up some big time assist numbers lately. Just check out his last nine games on the court: 9.2 assists per game, including six of those nine games with double-digit dimes.
That number can crater at times — Russell had only four dimes last game and had a three-assist game in this stretch too. But we don’t really care how low the number is, since a miss is a miss. We’re looking for ceiling outcomes, and Russell has hit this over in 67% of his last nine games versus an implied 14% at this number.
Per NBA Advanced Stats, Russell is averaging an outstanding 15.4 potential assists per game during this stretch. That’s way up from his season average and ranks top 10 in the entire NBA during that stretch, and it shows that this production is no fluke. The way Russell is playing right now, he’s a nightly threat for double digit assists.
And don’t forget, DLo is facing Trae Young and the Hawks tonight. They rank second to last in Defensive Rating and allow the second-most assists in the league.
You can play the more traditional assist line if you want — that’s over 6.5 at plus juice — but I’d rather be more aggressive since his numbers are high variance. Heck, I might even nibble on Russell to have 12 assists on FanDuel at +1400. He’s done that in four of these nine games. It’s an outlier result but one totally in his range.
These numbers are badly mispriced. We’re still more likely to lose than win, but the upside here is too hard to pass on. Let’s take a swing.
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OG Anunoby Over 16.5 Points (-115)
Raptors vs. Mavericks
Mavericks -3.5
Time | TV
8:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Best Book
PointsBet
OG Anunoby was one of my favorite breakout candidates coming into this season and an early favorite for Most Improved Player. This season feels a bit disappointing in that light, but that’s mostly because Anunoby has been overshadowed by rookie Scottie Barnes and Fred “Freddy All-Star” VanVleet.
That doesn’t mean Anunoby hasn’t been good, though. It’s more that he hasn’t needed to take on a huge usage and star load for Toronto because the team around him has been a bit better than expected. He’s still having a very nice season.
And it looks like he’s starting to settle in. In 10 games back after returning from a long absence, Anunoby is averaging 18.9 points per game, and he’s not even shooting that well yet, but the scoring has come. OG has scored at least 14 points in all but one of those games, giving us a very comfortable, high floor to rely on each night.
Anunoby has only gone over this line in five of the 10 games, a 50% hit rate, but he’s been within one bucket of hitting in 90% of them. With the volume he’s getting these days, this line should probably be closer to 19 or 20. The poor shooting is actually buying us some value before the line adjusts. You can play him to score at least 20 at FanDuel at +164, but I’ll stick with the traditional line tonight.
I like the over, and I’ll play to -130. We’re projecting OG at 20.3 points tonight.
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De’Aaron Fox Under 6.5 Assists (+115)
Pistons vs. Kings
Kings -7
Time | TV
10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Best Book
PointsBet
De’Aaron Fox is supposed to be the franchise player for the Sacramento Kings, and he certainly has the max contract to prove it. But this season has not gone according to plan, and the whispers have gotten loud as the Kings shop Fox around and look to take the franchise in another direction.
Part of the reason for that is the emergence of sophomore Tyrese Haliburton. He’s been terrific, and the Kings are running their offense through Haliburton now. He’s the point guard, and he’s been great at diming up his teammates while also limiting turnovers, always a Haliburton specialty.
All of that has meant a downturn in De’Aaron Fox’s numbers this season. He’s dropped from 25.2 points and 7.2 assists per game last season to just 20.9 and 5.1 this year. It’s a stark drop off, and the numbers have dipped even lower lately.
Over the last nine games, Fox has gone under 6.5 assists eight times, hitting this under 89% of the time. He’s averaging just 5.0 APG during this stretch, and the Potential Assists numbers bear it out. At NBA Advanced Stats, he’s at just 10.0 Potential Assists per game over this stretch. Players typically convert about half of their Potential Assists, so that’s right where the 5.0 sits.
If you want a more certain win, you can play Fox to go under 7.5 dimes at books like DraftKings, but you’ll have to drink a lot of juice. I’d rather get this under 6.5 at any plus number, so that’s our third play tonight.
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Bonus Prop Bets
Russell Westbrook Over 7.5 Rebounds (-120 PointsBet): Westbrook’s assist numbers and usage continue to take a tumble, but he’s averaging 9.1 rebounds per game over the last 14 without Anthony Davis. He’s over 7.5 boards in nine of those 14 (64%) and one rebound away in three more.
Mason Plumlee Over 6.5 Rebounds (-105 DraftKings): We’ve played Plumlee’s rebounding a few times lately, and it’s still hitting. Last 13 games, he’s averaging 6.9 RPG and over this line in nine of 13, a very nice 69% hit rate.
Hamidou Diallo Over 5.5 Rebounds (-110 DraftKings): This is another one worth coming back to. Diallo has over 5.5 boards in six of his last seven games (86%) with 7.1 RPG during that stretch, but the number hasn’t adjusted up yet. He had 13 boards last night against the Warriors. He’s getting minutes, and his energy and athleticism do the rest.
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Two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference go head-to-head tonight in Madison Square Garden as the Toronto Maple Leafs travel to the mecca to take on the New York Rangers.
The Leafs sit in third in the Atlantic Division with a 24-9-3 record. They are eight points back of the first-place Lightning, but have played five fewer games than them.
The Rangers are in a tie for first place in the Metropolitan Division, but they have played three more games than the Hurricanes. The four teams atop the Metro are all within three points of each other.
This game is getting sharp action and a PRO system aligned on the same side as well as a PRO projection edge on the total.
It’s rare to have so many actionable signals on one game.
Maple Leafs vs. Rangers Pick
Our PRO system, Well Rested Visiting Faves, has identified a pick on the visiting Leafs. The system has hit at a 64% rate over the last 15+ years with a 560-320 record and 10% return on investment.
The system identifies favorites that have had three or four days off and are playing on the road against a team that did not make the playoffs last season.
We have also tracked sharp action coming in on the Leafs moneyline. Toronto is currently getting 54% of the public bets and 59% of the handle.
On the over/under, our NHL power ratings projects the total at 6.08, giving over 5.5 a 4.2% edge.
Bet $300 on the Chiefs-Bills game as your FIRST bet
Note: You can place a first-time wager of $50+ on any NFL playoff game and be rewarded with $300 in additional free bets if your team’s QB completes a pass. This game and Patrick Mahomes are being used as examples.
Don’t pass up on this generous welcome offer! Head on over to Betfred so you can cash in before kickoff on Sunday.
Note: You can place a first-time wager of $50+ on any NFL playoff game and be rewarded with $300 in additional free bets if your team’s QB completes a pass. This game and Tom Brady are being used as examples.
Don’t pass up on this generous welcome offer! Head on over to Betfred so you can cash in before kickoff on Sunday.
Bet $300 on the Packers-49ers game as your FIRST bet
Note: You can place a first-time wager of $50+ on any NFL playoff game and be rewarded with $300 in additional free bets if your team’s QB completes a pass. This game and Aaron Rodgers are being used as examples.
Don’t pass up on this generous welcome offer! Head on over to Betfred so you can cash in before kickoff on Saturday.
Bet $300 on the Bengals-Titans game as your FIRST bet
Note: You can place a first-time wager of $50+ on any NFL playoff game and be rewarded with $300 in additional free bets if your team’s QB completes a pass. This game and Joe Burrow are being used as examples.
Don’t pass up on this generous welcome offer! Head on over to Betfred so you can cash in before kickoff on Saturday.
Who’s it for? New users in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, WV and VA
Patrick Mahomes racked up 30 completions in a resounding Wild Card win last weekend, while Josh Allen completed 21 passes (including five TDs) in the Bills’ blowout victory.
And if your QB has ONE completion at Arrowhead Stadium, you win big.
Bet $20 on the Chiefs vs. Bills game as your FIRST bet (use the regular NFL market)
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Virginia Tech will square off against NC State for the second time this season on Wednesday. Virginia Tech comes into the matchup fresh off snapping a three-game losing streak, having taken down Notre Dame 79-73 on Saturday.
NC State, meanwhile, is just just trying to string a few wins together. The Wolfpack had an awful end to 2021, winning just two of nine December games. Things have gone somewhat better in 2022 at 2-3, with one of those wins being a 68-63 triumph over Virginia Tech on Jan. 4. The Wolfpack suffered their fifth conference loss in their last game, which saw them fall 88-73 on the road against Duke.
While most teams would feel some relief in heading home for two games after playing three of the last four on the road, that is not the case for NC State. The Wolfpack are 6-5 in Raleigh this season and are winless there in conference play. Most importantly for us, NC State is 3-9 against the spread (ATS) on its home court.
Can NC State begin to salvage its conference schedule with its first home league win? They have already bested the Hokies once this season.
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Virginia Tech Hokies
Similar to NC State, it’s been a rough start to conference play for the Hokies. Tech is 1-4 in conference play so far this season, but its one win did come against fifth-place Notre Dame. The Hokies are a more respectable 8-8 ATS this season compared to their opponents on Wednesday.
The Hokies have been solid offensively and should have a considerable edge over the Wolfpack defense, as they rank 41st nationally in effective field goal percentage. While Tech only averages 69.9 points per contest, its 13th-ranked defense and one of the slowest paces of play in the nation cater to the average scoring offense. The Hokies rank 336th in adjusted tempo, per KenPom.
Two seniors lead the Hokies in every major offensive statistic, with Keve Aluma leading the team in points at 15.8 per game and Justyn Mutts pacing them in rebounds (7.3) and assists (2.8).
Virginia Tech has also been dominant outside the arc at both ends of the floor. The Hokies rank seventh nationally in 3-point shooting percentage at 39.3%, while also 13th in 3-point defense by limiting teams to just 27.6% from deep.
The Hokies don’t give up many turnovers at just 10.9 per game, but neither does NC State. Both teams also rank outside the top 150 in forced turnovers, so I don’t see that being a factor.
On defense, the Hokies are allowing opponents to record an effective field goal percentage of just 46.4%. While Tech’s defense will be one of the biggest keys to splitting the series with NC State this year, I think their experience will be an even bigger factor. Virginia Tech ranks 91st in experience per KenPom, while NC State is 303rd.
NC State ranks 50th in the country in scoring at 76.1 points per game. The Wolfpack also grade out as a much better rebounding team than Virginia Tech with 37.3 boards per contest. When they come down with those rebounds is when they will have their biggest advantage, since they’re 56th in the country in second-chance points. NC State will be going up against a Hokies team that ranks 247th in second-chance points allowed.
The Wolfpack offense has been led by the second-leading scorer in the ACC in Dereon Seabron, who is averaging 19.6 points and 9.7 rebounds per game (second in the conference). Terquavion Smith and Jericole Hellems are the only other players for the Wolfpack averaging double-digit points.
The Wolfpack are 235th in effective field goal percentage and rank outside the top 200 in both 2- and 3-point shooting. They also rank 254th in offensive block percentage, being rejected on 10.2% of their attempts.
Defensively, the Wolfpack have had serious issues, allowing opposing teams to post an effective field goal percentage of 51.5%. They rank outside the top 200 in 2- and 3-point defense as well.
Virginia Tech vs. NC State Betting Pick
Both of these teams have had a difficult start to the season and while the Wolfpack have already beat the Hokies once, they have been significantly worse at home.
NC State will need to have one of its best shooting performances of the season and dominate the paint if it wants to sweep this season series, something I don’t think an experienced Hokies team letting happen.
Like NC State, Virginia Tech has been better on the road. I think slowing down the pace against a team that already struggles on offense will lead to a win for the Hokies.
I got Virginia Tech at -1, but this line opened at -3 and is dropping as NC State catches more and more money as a home underdog. Nothing wrong with waiting for plus money, but if it starts to shift back then I would take the Hokies at no higher than -2.
The PGA TOUR returns to the mainland this week after two weeks in Hawaii. While much of the country still shivers through the chills of winter, the TOUR will once again be played under sun and palm trees, this week at The American Express at PGA West outside of Palm Springs.
Handicapping this event is more difficult than most, with three different courses in play throughout the four rounds of tournament play. Finding a player that fits three courses is a tougher task, but with years of data from this venue, we should be able to not just find some strong picks among the favorites, but also a few longshots who could compete this weekend.
The TOUR’s best players are beginning to emerge from their offseason hiatus, making things tougher for typical longshots. World No. 1 Jon Rahm is back in action this week, along with reigning FedEx Cup champion Patrick Cantlay.
Deeper down the board, there are a few names that pop out with the potential to sneak into the winner’s circle by Sunday night.
Bet the American Express and get a $5,000 risk-free first bet.
After missing seven of 10 cuts to end last season, Hadwin’s game appears to have rounded back into form. He’s begun this PGA TOUR season with five straight made cuts, including a top-10 back at the Shriners. The turnaround has been largely due to his putting, which ranks 29th worldwide over the last three months.
That form could continue this week as the Canadian returns to an event where he has seen heaps of success. In six appearances at the American Express, Hadwin is yet to miss a cut and boasted four straight top-10 finishes from 2016 to 2019.
Though this tournament is played at multiple courses, which can make it hard for a player to be better suited for the event that a single course set-up, Hadwin clearly likes something about this venue. Back in 2019, Hadwin fired a course record 59 in the third round at this event.
He’s worth a flyer this week, with hopes he can re-capture that magic.
Michael Thompson +11000
Whether you prefer finding players currently playing their best or players who have played well at this venue before, Thompson could be your guy.
The newly-bearded TOUR veteran is coming off a top-5 finish this week at the Sony Open. He’s also returning to the site of a top-5 finish last year at the American Express.
After starting his season with six straight made cuts, Thompson has announced himself as a factor in the early PGA TOUR campaign.
His recent strong play has been fueled by a hot short game. Thompson ranks 13th in the world in Strokes Gained: Around the Green over the last three months per DataGolf, a key statistic as the TOUR returns to different grass in the continental United States this week. His ability to adapt will be key.
Bet at BetMGM and get a risk-free bet up to $1,000.
Aside from the PGA Championship, most of Lefty’s recent success has come on the Champions Tour, though his weekend at Kiawah proved that Mickelson can still catch lightning in a bottle for a four-round tournament. Especially at a venue that suits his eye and his penchant for hitting (and occasionally spraying) his driver, Phil can still be a factor a few times a year against the world’s best.
Mickelson has played well here in the past, with top-three finishes in 2016 and 2019. Those aren’t yesterday, but also aren’t ancient history. Phil’s next level thinking around a golf course where he has already played well is always a leg up on players with less experience.
Even in his fifties, Phil is able to compete on TOUR, making cuts in six of his last nine full-field events.
As NFL teams advance deeper in the playoffs, football card investors are thinking about what futures they want to put their money into. Value depends on current prices and the potential of that player to go far.
As usual, the focus is on the quarterbacks. But it’s not a simple game.
Patrick Mahomes prices, for example, factored in a Super Bowl win last year. When he didn’t win, the market came down significantly. And despite the Rams looking good — +700 to win the Super Bowl — there has been very little investment in Matthew Stafford.
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So who is the market speculating the most on?
Even though his prices have risen significantly since his 525-yard passing game against the Las Vegas Raiders three weeks ago, Joe Burrow is the most investable QB at this point, according to marketplace data.
You can see it from the relatively lower end cards that are trading more frequently. Burrow’s 2020 Rookie Orange Prizm (#309) could be had for $500 in a PSA 10 in late October. It’s now $850 for that card, which is even selling raw for $300.
“I realize it’s a long shot (+1200), but if Burrow makes the Super Bowl, he’s going to shoot up more,” said Rick Probstein, eBay’s largest trading card seller. “If he wins the Super Bowl, he’s going to Mahomes-type levels.”
“The bottom line is Burrow is still affordable,” said Dave Amerman, auctions director for Goldin Co., which has sold the most expensive Burrow cards, including one card that sold for $96,000 earlier this month and the all-time record card, a 2020 Panini Contenders Super Bowl Ticket card, which sold for $185,730 in May 2021.
Probstein confirms that volume on Stafford is virtually non-existent. “That’s because I don’t think if the Rams win the Super Bowl, people are going to give credit to him. It will be Aaron Donald or Von Miller or Cooper Kupp or Odell Beckham Jr.”
Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are obviously already heavily invested in, but the thinking among insiders is that they both need titles to add to their lore and price. Brady wasn’t expected to win another one last year and got a bump.
Both Amerman and Probstein agree that Rodgers, whose Packers are now the favorite to win the Super Bowl at most books, needs the Super Bowl.
“If he wins the Super Bowl, he has two titles and can enter the conversation as one of the best ever,” Probstein said.
The GOAT did GOAT things against the Eagles on Sunday. Now Brady has the chance to return to the conference championship for the millionth time in his career.
And if the he throws for 22+ yards against the Rams, you can win big thanks to BetMGM:
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Kody Malstrom:Another two weeks have come and gone, and some changes have been made at the top of the board.
This begs the question: who is the clear-cut No. 1 team this year? No one, and that’s what makes this sport awesome. The more disparity, the better for our viewership as this is shaping up to be a tournament filled with upsets.
Speaking of upsets, that’s one sure-fire way to peak my interest when it comes to futures — especially when a few installments of this biweekly article featured long-shot numbers on Colorado State and Xavier.
The timing of this article comes at a great time. My focus will be on a team that took Purdue to double overtime in a thriller Monday afternoon that had me distracted and nearly got me fired from my day job.
Mike, on the other hand, also has his eyes on the Big Ten.
While I don’t have a dating analogy that my colleague Mike used in our last installment, I will leave you with this: you miss 100% of the futures you don’t bet.
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National Championship Picture
Illinois Fighting Illini
To Win National Championship +2500
Kody Malstrom:Illinois came into this season with dampened expectations after embarrassingly losing to Loyola Chicago early in the tournament last year, and losing some top-tier talent.
The Illini were still regarded as one of the better Big Ten teams coming into this year, but everyone thought it would be a battle between Michigan and Purdue at the top of the league.
I’m not the only one that likes Illinois for a run at the national title, as Kyle Remillard also recently wrote a column about the Illini in his Final Four dark horse contenders.
Since his return to the lineup, Kofi Cockburn has averaged 22 points and 12 rebounds per game, and is reminding everyone why Illinois is poised for a deep run — a redemption run.
He’s not the only one to make his return either.
Enter Andre Curbelo. The point guard made a splash in his return on Monday against Purdue. He scored 20 points, added six rebounds and dished out three assists, as well as making the game-tying layup to go to overtime.
With Curbelo back, Illinois adds another lethal scorer. The Illini also have three others scoring in double figures in Alfonso Plummer (16.4 PPG), Trent Frazier (13.4 PPG) and Jacob Grandison (11.4 PPG).
Sitting at 13-3, Illinois is back to being a legitimate contender for the Big Ten title. Michigan has taken a drastic step back, Purdue’s defense is consistently giving up open looks and getting burned on the perimeter and Ohio State is top heavy with a shaky defense, as well.
Illinois is one of the more balanced teams, per KenPom, a metric I look for in any squad in a tournament-style format. As of writing, Illinois is 11th in AdjO and 20th in AdjD. The offense has been lethal with premium shooters surrounding the perimeter while Cockburn works his monstrous magic down low.
The Illini shoot 38% from 3, which ranks 16th in the nation.
If Cockburn can stay out of foul trouble and remains healthy, then Illinois will be primed and ready for a deep run in March. I will grab +2500 now before the number starts to plummet with Curbelo back.
At +2500, you are looking for Illinois to make at least the Eight Eight before a buy back opportunity. If it reaches the Final Four, it gives you serious hedging opportunities. Reminder, this is all about securing profits and lining our pockets.
Mike Calabrese:Halfway through January and we already have a clear separation between the teams with legitimate conference title hopes and those simply looking to play spoiler.
That is particularly true in the Big Ten, with the top-five programs (Wisconsin, Illinois, Sparty, Ohio State, Purdue) all sitting within one and a half games of one another.
The Badgers are tied with the Fighting Illini at the top of the Big Ten standings and are currently on a seven-game winning streak.
Johnny Davis has been nothing short of sensational, but the general public still views the Badgers as a pretender. Statistically, UW doesn’t pop off the page. In fact, a quick review of the Badgers’ resume could lead a casual observer to assume they were a middling bubble team.
On the floor, however, they have been a well-oiled machine that simply doesn’t beat themselves. Wisconsin is only turning the ball over 8.2 times per game (2nd) and its rarely sending teams to the line (9.2 FTM, 23rd).
Teams need to shoot really well to beat UW because its refusing to give up easy buckets or opportunities from the line. That has translated to the Badgers’ best start since 2015.
Having already split a pair of road games to Ohio State and Purdue, the rest of the conference slate is more than manageable for the Badgers.
Trips to East Lansing, Champaign and Piscataway will shape their stretch run. All three of those opponents have shown vulnerability at home, particularly Michigan State, which just lost to Northwestern outright at the Breslin Center.
Rutgers balanced out an upset of Purdue with a home loss to Lafayette, while Illinois has dropped half of its games this season on its home floor.
The road is manageable at this price, so I’m more than happy to hitch my wagon to a team that doesn’t have much sex appeal. What they do have is a National Player of the Year candidate and a brand of basketball that makes them a tough out in every contest the rest of the way.
What to Watch For
SEC Team To Win National Championship
+500
Mike Calabrese:As Stuckey pointed out this week on the Big Bets on Campus podcast, the SEC can make a legitimate claim that it’s the best conference in college basketball. According to Bracket Matrix, the SEC currently has eight teams in the field of 68 with two (Arkansas, Ole Miss) on the bubble.
Digging deeper, the conference has five teams on the six-line or better, with Auburn and LSU sitting as ones and twos, respectively. Then you have the suddenly resurgent Kentucky Wildcats.
Winners of seven of its last eight games, UK has a pair of monster opportunities just around the bend. On Jan. 22nd, Big Blue Nation travels to the Plains to take on Auburn, and then, they head to Lawrence, Kansas at the end of the month for a non-conference heavyweight fight with the Jayhawks.
A mere split would position them to land on the two- or three-line come March, while a sweep would suddenly give them the inside track to a No. 1 seed.
Given the success of the coaches involved with these teams, including Final Four appearances by Bruce Pearl, Coach Cal, Rick Barnes and Ben Howland, I feel confident that at least one will punch a ticket to the Final Four this spring.
That would provide a nice hedge opportunity and turn this future into cash.
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Note: You can place any first-time moneyline wager of $10+ and be rewarded with $220 in additional free bets if that team’s quarterback passes for 22+ yards. This game is being used as an example.
Don’t snooze on this no-brainer of a welcome offer. Head on over to BetMGM before the Packers take the field on Saturday so you can boost your bankroll!
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Bet $10 on the Chiefs or Bills moneyline as your FIRST bet
Note: You can place any first-time moneyline wager of $10+ and be rewarded with $220 in additional free bets if that team’s quarterback passes for 22+ yards. This game is being used as an example.
Don’t snooze on this no-brainer of a welcome offer. Head on over to BetMGM before the Chiefs and Bills take the field on Sunday night so you can boost your bankroll!
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Bet $10 on the Titans moneyline as your FIRST bet
Note: You can place any first-time moneyline wager of $10+ and be rewarded with $220 in additional free bets if that team’s quarterback passes for 22+ yards. This game is being used as an example.
Don’t snooze on this no-brainer of a welcome offer. Head on over to BetMGM before the Titans take the field on Saturday so you can boost your bankroll!
