World Cup: Can England Solve Sweden’s Stalwart Defense?

England vs. Sweden, 10 a.m. ET, Fox

  • England -112
  • Sweden +390
  • Draw +225

Bet to Watch:

England To Win By 1 Goal +246 

After England won only their second of eight major tournament penalty shootouts, and first at a World Cup, the English media are starting to believe that anything is possible. “Football’s coming home” as far as fans of the Three Lions  are concerned, but if their team is to lift the trophy for the first time in more than 50 years, there are a few roadblocks still to overcome.

Sweden are, without question, a favorable quarterfinal opponent, but that’s not to say Saturday’s match in Samara will be plain sailing for Gareth Southgate’s men. It never is as far as England are concerned, nor is it when they come to blows with this weekend’s challengers.

England have, after all, won just one of their last eight competitive meetings with the Swedes, who have developed a liking for what has become a familiar underdog status under coach Janne Andersson. Indeed, since exiting Euro 2016 and waving goodbye to their greatest-ever player in Zlatan Ibrahimovic, there has been a realization that without a star name to call upon, the players have needed to accept their limitations and, in a roundabout way, turn that into a strength.

The Scandinavians have shown this summer and well beforehand just how difficult they are to break down, simply by sticking to their rigid positions when out of possession and sitting deep. In the past 18 months, they’ve beaten Portugal, France and Italy, so they aren’t to be underestimated, keeping five clean sheets in their last six matches.

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It’s relatively clear how the pattern of this match will play out, with Sweden having had a lower possession share (36%) at this World Cup than any of the remaining teams. Plus, they’re well-aware that England are struggling to create meaningful chances from open play.

England have the tournament’s top scorer in their ranks, and Harry Kane will know that if he can add to his six-goal tally, he may well wrap up the Golden Boot. While there are those who will point to his duties as the penalty-kick taker as the main reason for his success this summer, he’s taken the chances that have come his way. Plus, his performance against Colombia was arguably the Tottenham star’s best all-around display of the tournament.

Sweden may have conceded only twice, but they have allowed their opponents the most shots on goal (61) of the quarterfinalists, and Kane doesn’t need a second invitation to shoot or indeed score. With odds over evens on the striker to do so at any time, that’s a bet that’s well worth considering, but I like the winning margin odds for England in this one.

It’s never straightforward when they are involved, after all, and Southgate’s charges are the only side remaining that are yet to keep a clean sheet. While their quality should win out, you can bank on a tight result, so England to win by exactly one goal would be my tip.

2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Sleeper Picks: Will Gordon, Matthew NeSmith Among Value Plays

2023-att pebble beach pro am-sleeper-picks-will gordon-matthew nesmith

The PGA Tour heads up the West Coast from San Diego to the Monterey Peninsula for the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Three of the top 16 and seven of the top 50 players in the world will be playing in the fourth full-field event of the 2023 calendar year on TOUR at a tournament where longshots have had recent success.

Vaughn Taylor (+30000), Ted Potter Jr. (+50000) and Nick Taylor (+16000) have all emerged as winners despite long odds at Pebble Beach since 2016.

The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is the final multi-course event of the 2023 PGA TOUR season. Players will participate in a pro-am and play the three courses (Spyglass Hill, Pebble Beach and Monterey Peninsula) once over the first three rounds each before playing at Pebble Beach for the final round after a 54-hole cut.

Let’s take a look at which players have betting value to win outright and place in the top-20 market.

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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Sleeper Picks

Will Gordon +7000 (FanDuel)

Will Gordon is a player whose game fits Pebble Beach, and I’m generally higher on him than the market.

Gordon is long and relatively accurate off the tee, and this will be an advantage when he clubs down to find fairways at Pebble Beach, especially on the front nine.

His approach and off-the-tee game is strong and will put him in position to score on all three courses if his short game cooperates. He hasn’t lost more than 0.25 strokes on approach in any of his eight tracked tournaments this season, and he has also gained strokes off the tee in all eight tracked events.

He also has encouraging course history at Pebble Beach. He finished T21 here in his tournament debut in 2021. Although Gordon struggled with his game in the 2021 season, this was his second-best finish all season on TOUR that year. He also made it to the quarterfinals of the 2018 US Amateur at Pebble Beach.

I love this as a buy-low spot on him after coming off of consecutive missed cuts at the AmEx and Farmers, as he gained strokes on approach and off the tee in both events but lost over 2.0 strokes either around the green or with his putter.

If he avoids a disaster with his short game, he can contend this week and even win.


Matthew NeSmith +8000 (BetMGM) | Top 20 +300 (bet365)

Matthew NeSmith is a strong player on approach, which gives him a higher ceiling than a lot of other players in this relatively weak field.

He’s 20th in Strokes Gained: Approach this season on TOUR and has gained at least 1.20 strokes on approach per round in four of his seven tracked tournaments this season.

His biggest weakness is his middling-at-best driving distance, but his accuracy off the tee and strong approach play render that lack of distance much less important this week than last week at Torrey Pines, where he missed the cut.

He has decent tournament history on the Monterey Peninsula, as he has top-16 finishes in two of his three starts at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He’s in the best form of his pro career with his irons, and with only three elite players in the field, he has a chance of winning this week.

I bet him to win outright at +8000 and have also played him for a top-20 finish at +300 on bet365.

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Sean Payton to the Broncos: Historical Trends & Betting Notes

sean-payton-broncos-betting-notes

News broke on Tuesday afternoon that the Denver Broncos hired Sean Payton as their new coach, meaning Broncos fans will have one of the best against-the-spread coaches in recent history.

Payton’s arrival in Denver means that the Broncos will have to send back a first round pick in 2023 and a second round pick in 2024 to the New Orleans Saints, and they’ll get a 2024 third round pick in return.

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Interestingly, Ian Rapoport reported that Payton was actually the second choice for the Broncos, who preferred DeMeco Ryans, but lost out to the Houston Texans.

However, betting trends indicate that Broncos fans should have no fear, for whatever that is worth.

According to the Action Network’s Evan Abrams, Payton was the second-best coach ATS from 2006-2021, trailing only Bill Belichick.

He posted a mark of 133-105-3 ATS for the past 20 years, which would earn him the third-best position.

Additionally, Payton has been particularly profitable as an underdog, with a 50-30-2 ATS mark with that designation. A $10 bettor would be up $185 backing Payton as a dog. Only Mike Tomlin has a bettor record.

In terms of the general outlook for the Broncos, DraftKings shifted their Super Bowl price on the Broncos from 40-1 to 28-1, but it would be surprising to see bettors flock to that number in any meaningful way.

The priority for Payton and his Broncos staff now becomes free agency and the NFL Draft, which are both rapidly approaching.

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College Basketball Odds, Picks, Prediction for Villanova vs Marquette (Wednesday, Feb. 1)

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Villanova vs Marquette Odds

Wednesday, Feb. 1
8:30 p.m. ET
FS1
Villanova Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+9
-110
144
-110o / -110u
+330
Marquette Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-9
-110
144
-110o / -110u
-440
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

It would be hard to believe at the beginning of the college basketball season that Villanova would be close to a double-digit underdog at Marquette when the two teams met to begin February.

When you consider that Villanova is finally healthy with Justin Moore back in the lineup, it’s even more improbable.

Marquette has been the best team in the Big East to this point with a 7-2 record and two road losses by nine combined points, with one of them coming in overtime.

The offense ranks No. 1 in the KenPom efficiency ratings by a solid margin. It’s been a resurgent year for Shaka Smart in Year 2 in Milwaukee, and the Golden Eagles look like legitimate Final Four contenders.

Villanova is in a transition year after the surprise retirement of head coach Jay Wright last season. It’s just 4-6 in the Big East and 10-11 overall in Kyle Neptune’s first season.

From a buy-low, sell-high perspective, this is a great spot for Villanova. The Wildcats match up really well with the Golden Eagles and should grind this game into the half-court and stay within this inflated number.

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Villanova Wildcats

When a team plays Marquette, it won’t be successful if it turns the ball over often or lets the Golden Eagles run in transition.

Villanova is excellent at getting back in transition defense. It doesn’t turn the ball over, and it shoots free throws better than every team in the country. The Wildcats have had their offensive struggles this season in the half-court, but Villanova is still top-30 in offensive turnover rate and now has a key ball-handler in Moore back in the rotation.

The Wildcats sit in the 93rd percentile nationally in transition defense and don’t really let teams run with any real frequency. In the first meeting between the two teams, Marquette won the game on the road but played in the half-court for almost the entire second half.

That favors the Wildcats to keep this close significantly.

The main issue for Villanova is that the offense went from one of the best in the country from 3-point range last season to quite mediocre this season. Part of that is losing Collin Gillespie, but some of it is guys just shooting below their career percentages.

If you look at the Wildcats offense in the league alone, you can see where the Golden Eagles would be able to turn them over and run away with this game at home.

Villanova has had turnover issues in the league, but Moore’s return is a massive upgrade in the Villanova backcourt. He played 31 minutes in the loss to Providence on Saturday and had four assists to just one turnover.

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Marquette Golden Eagles

The Golden Eagles have the best offense in the country by KenPom and rank sixth, per ShotQuality. They don’t turn the ball over, and they take high-quality shots from either the rim or the 3-point line.

Tyler Kolek has the eighth-best assist rate in the country and is extremely effective in the pick-and-roll for the Golden Eagles.

Marquette doesn’t play with a traditional big and usually has four players minimum on the floor who can shoot the ball from deep at all times.

Against most teams, the Golden Eagles are able to create mismatches and switching advantages through the ball screens — or they can get the defense to collapse and leave shooters.

For most teams, the Golden Eagles’ spacing and positional versatility is a matchup problem. However, Villanova has five players capable of switching on the floor at all times, and Eric Dixon is one of the most mobile defensive bigs in the entire country.

That should help the Cats contain Marquette enough to stay in this game. Villanova also ranks 84th percentile in pick-and-roll defense, per Synergy.


Villanova vs Marquette Betting Pick

Marquette’s defense is still pretty flawed — both at the rim and from 3 — and this could be a decent spot for the Wildcats to finally make some perimeter shots. Villanova ranks ninth in conference play in 3-point percentage. However, ShotQuality says it should be making 3% more from deep in league play.

This is a similar spot for Villanova as when it went to Connecticut to begin conference play. The Wildcats were struggling and entered as 14-point underdogs while UConn was at the peak of its market rating.

The Wildcats lost the game by eight and never really threatened to win in the final five minutes. But the cover was also never really in doubt, as Villanova never trailed by more than 10.

The Wildcats are physical. They compete and should control the glass. With the extra ball-handler now, Villanova will be competitive and stay inside this number, even if it doesn’t get enough stops against this elite Marquette offense to win.

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Promoguy: How to Bet DraftKings’ Early Win NBA Promotion for Tuesday

DraftKings has announced it will bring back its early win promotion, this time targeting the NBA. I’ll be tracking my bets below.

Just opt-in to the promo and if the team you bet on the moneyline goes up 10 points or more at any point in the game, your bet cashes. If they don’t go up 10 but win the game anyway, you still win your bet.

The promo is expected to run every day for the rest of the season — or until it gets pulled. You get one bet per day and it’s available for new and existing users.

When DraftKings had the promotion available for the NFL earlier this season, I made picks on every game and used a similar strategy as I do for the NBA.

A $100 per game bettor would have been up a profit of $1,050 for a total of $3,000 risked. That’s an ROI of 35%.

This promotion was also live for Game 1 of the 2022 NBA Finals, in which our bet won.

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Here’s how the promotion works for this year:

  • Place one (1) pre-game moneyline bet per day and if the team you choose leads by 10 points or more at any time in the game, your bet wins
  • Bet will be settled as a winner when your team goes up 10 points
  • If your team never goes up by 10 points, you can still win your bet. In that event, regular moneyline rules go into effect
  • You must attach the token to your wager in order to apply the promotion
  • VIP bettors or those with Diamond status have maximum wagers of $500. Others have max bets of $200, $100 or $50

The general principles?

  1. Wager on underdogs.
  2. Target games with high over/unders. Games with more points scored have a positive correlation with teams blowing 10-point leads. Logic backs up the numbers as 10-point leads are easier to obtain, and easier to come back from, when a game is very high scoring vs low scoring.
  3. Pick moneylines that are better priced than other sportsbooks.
  4. The max bet for some is $200 but I don’t recommend going more than 1 unit, whatever that is for you. I explained more on Twitter.

Tuesday, Jan. 31

The Hornets fit my criteria above — a big underdog with what the betting market thinks will be the highest-scoring game on the board.

The Hornets are +410 at DraftKings against the Bucks in Milwaukee, with the total at 244.5.

Pick: Hornets +410

Monday, Jan. 30

For Wizards vs. Spurs, those philosophies apply to the Spurs’ moneyline at a price of +180.

The over/under of 240 is the second-highest on the docket tonight. Its price is just about the best on the market, behind a +185 clip at BallyBet.

Overall, this pick has a 49% win probability and has 38% in total expected value.

Pick: Spurs +180

Kentucky vs Ole Miss Odds, Prediction: 2 Ways to Potentially Play This SEC Affair

college basketball odds-picks-prediction-kentucky wildcats vs ole miss rebels-tuesday january 31

Kentucky vs. Ole Miss Odds

Tuesday, Jan. 31
9 p.m. ET
ESPN
Kentucky Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-7.5
-114
135.5
-110o / -110u
-335
Ole Miss Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+7.5
-106
135.5
-110o / -110u
+260
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

In the return to SEC play, Kentucky looks to get back on track with a victory at Ole Miss on Tuesday night.

Both programs lost in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge over the weekend, with the Wildcats falling to No. 8 Kansas to snap their four-game winning streak.

Meanwhile, the Rebels are reeling over the last month, losing nine of their last 10 to sit at 9-12 overall and 1-7 in the SEC.

This should be a perfect spot for the visitors to get back on track against a squad that is struggling with multiple injuries.

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Kentucky Wildcats

The betting market has really started to get behind coach John Calipari’s team in recent weeks. After entering the Tennessee game as a double-digit underdog, the Wildcats closed as a favorite at home against the Jayhawks.

Beyond the impressive win over the Volunteers, Kentucky has been playing its best ball over the last few weeks, picking up dominant wins over Texas A&M, Georgia and Vanderbilt.

One key player during this stretch has been center Oscar Tshiebwe, who leads the team in scoring (16.6 PPG) and rebounds (13.7 RPG). His value truly shows when crashing the offensive glass, where the senior big man averages the most offensive rebounds per game in the country (5.5).

Going up against an Ole Miss squad that is 245th in the nation in defensive rebounding (according to Bart Torvik), this will definitely be a spot where Calipari’s program will attack.

Ole Miss Rebels

Who is going to be available for the Rebels in this contest? In the blowout loss over the weekend at Oklahoma State, coach Kermit Davis was without Matthew Murrell, Daeshun Ruffin and Malique Ewin.

Ewin has not made much of an impact in his freshman season, but Murrell and Ruffin are arguably Ole Miss’ two best players. Murrell is the only Rebel to average double figures this season, while Ruffin is the second-leading scorer on the team.

Someone who has been stepping up in their absence is Jaemyn Brakefield, who is averaging 11.5 points to go along with 4.9 rebounds per game in SEC play. Brakefield will also be one of the key big men who will be trying to contain Tshiebwe.

At this point in the season, it will take a pretty long run of victories for Ole Miss to have a chance of receiving an invite to any postseason play, but everyone in the SEC likes to give Kentucky their best shot.

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Kentucky vs. Ole Miss Betting Pick

The handicap for this game comes down to the status of Murrell and Ruffin.

Here is how I would bet on this matchup based on the different scenarios.

If either Murrell or both suit up, I would play the under on the Rebels’ team total of 65, which has value to 62.5. This is still the same squad that ranks outside the top 220 offensively in EFG% (291st), 2-point% (221st) and 3-point shooting (327th).

In the SEC contests where the duo has played, Ole Miss is averaging just 61.9 points per game, failing to top this total in five of seven games.

For the scenario, if neither is available, I would turn my attention to backing Kentucky on the spread of -5.5, which I would bet to 9.5. This is also how I would play it if Murrell is out by himself.

You just have to look at how the team performed in the last two contests to see how important the two are. The Rebels lost to Missouri by 12 at home without their leading scorer before falling to the Cowboys by 22 points without the duo, allowing both programs to top 80 points.

This could be a letdown spot for the Wildcats after playing Kansas this past weekend, but the fact that they lost makes me think that Calipari will have his team ready to go in this one.

You will need to be following the beat writers and news on Twitter as the lines will move quickly.

Pick: Ole Miss TT U65 (Play to 62.5) | Kentucky -5.5 (Play to -9.5) Based on Player Availability Above

Indiana vs Maryland Odds, Picks: Target This Total in College Park

college basketball odds-picks-prediction-indiana hoosiers vs maryland terrapins-tuesday january 31

Indiana vs Maryland Odds

Tuesday, Jan. 31
9 p.m. ET
ESPN2
Indiana Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+2.5
+100
139.5
-104o / -118u
+128
Maryland Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-2.5
-122
139.5
-104o / -118u
-156
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

Indiana and Maryland will meet on Tuesday night in a matchup between two teams trending in the right direction.

Indiana sits in a tie for third place in the Big Ten standings at 6-4, while the Terrapins are just one game back at 5-5.

Mike Woodson and the Hoosiers have been on fire, winning their last five games in the Big Ten, with four of the five wins coming by double digits.

Similarly, Maryland has won three of its last four, with its only loss coming to Purdue by three points on the road.

To find out which team will continue their hot-streak, let’s take a look at the odds and make a prediction for Indiana vs. Maryland.

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Indiana Hoosiers

The Hoosiers have completely turned their Big Ten season around after starting conference play with three straight losses to Iowa, Northwestern and Penn State.

Since this start, the Hoosiers have been effective at both ends of the floor, resulting in their second-longest winning streak of the season.

During this winning streak, Indiana has held its opponents to just 61.2 points per game through its ability to protect the rim.

The Hoosiers have a block percentage of 15.4%, the seventh-highest rate in the country.

This ability to defend the interior can be attributed to the play of All-American Trayce Jackson-Davis, who boasts 3.2 blocks per game.

This defense has put Indiana on another level given the consistency it has produced on the offensive end. The Hoosiers rank 16th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency through their ability to create high-percentage close-range shots.

These high-percentage shots result in Indiana scoring 58.9% of its points on the interior, the 19th-highest rate in the country.

This offensive tendency will be crucial against a Maryland team struggling to prevent penetration this season. The Terps are allowing teams to score 56.4% of their points from 2-point range the 26th-highest rate in the country.

Overall, I expect Indiana to keep rolling on the offensive end.

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Maryland Terrapins

Kevin Willard and Maryland have had an up and down Big Ten season, resulting in a 5-5 overall record.

The one consistency for the Terrapins has been their ability to execute on their home floor, as all five of their wins in conference have come in College Park.

Much of the success Maryland has been able to produce at home has come on the offensive end. In its five home Big Ten victories, Maryland is averaging 74 points per game, three points higher than its season average.

Although Indiana’s defense has been trending in the right direction, Maryland will have the personnel to be successful on Tuesday night. The Terrapins rank 64th nationally in average height, rivaling the Hoosiers’ ranking of 23rd in the same category.

This frontcourt size has allowed for Maryland to score 52.3% of its points on the interior, which is above the national average. This paint presence will be crucial against a Hoosiers defense giving up the majority of its points from this range (50.3%).

Look for Maryland to rely on its offense to make up for its shortcomings on the defensive end.

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Indiana vs. Maryland Betting Pick

For Maryland to be able to keep up with an Indiana offense averaging 78.6 points per game, it will need to try and match the Hoosiers on the offensive end.

This offensive success will continue for Jackson-Davis and Indiana. Maryland is giving up 56.4% of its points on the interior, an area the Hoosiers have keyed in on to score 58.9% of their points.

Luckily for the Terrapins, they have been at their best offensively on their home floor, boasting a 10-3 overall record while scoring 74 points per game.

Even given these offensive tendencies, the market is moving this total in favor of the under, seeing it drop from 141.5 to 139.5 at the time of writing.

Given this steam, I believe there will be a great buy-back opportunity on the over in a matchup between two competent offenses.

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Northwestern vs Iowa Odds, Picks: Hawkeyes to End Wildcats’ Win Streak

college basketball odds-picks-prediction-northwestern wildcats vs iowa hawkeyes-tuesday january 31

Northwestern vs. Iowa Odds

Tuesday, Jan. 31
9 p.m. ET
Big Ten Network
Northwestern Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+6.5
-110
150.5
-106o / -114u
+240
Iowa Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-6.5
-110
150.5
-106o / -114u
-300
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

Northwestern travels to Iowa City to take on the Hawkeyes in a crucial Big Ten clash.

Northwestern is now past dealing with its COVID issues that caused it to cancel a few games.

The Wildcats have ripped off three straight wins out of their COVID pause and are now up to second place in the Big Ten. But the three opponents they faced out of the break were Wisconsin, Nebraska and Minnesota, so Iowa will be a much more difficult challenge.

Iowa ended its two-game skid by hanging 93 points on Rutgers, which is one of the best defensive teams in the country.

Fran McCaffery’s team is currently sitting at 5-5 in the Big Ten and needs to avoid a meltdown in February to make sure it gets an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.

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Northwestern Wildcats

Northwestern is one of the more underrated teams in college basketball, and now people are starting to take notice.

The Wildcats do two things very well offensively: they attack the rim at an elite level and they run a ton of pick-and-roll. Northwestern is 10th in the country in PPP at the rim and has the highest pick-and-roll frequency in the Big Ten — although it’s only sixth in PPP in that set, per ShotQuality.

Northwestern also does a fantastic job spacing the floor and getting the best shot possible, but that really only applies to field goal attempts inside the arc.

As you can see below, Northwestern is 354th in open 3-point rate, which is a problem because during Big Ten play, 42% of its 3-point attempts are coming from behind the arc.

On top of that, Iowa is allowing the highest 3-point percentage in the Big Ten this season, so Northwestern will have to do a better job of getting open looks from 3-point range.

Image via ShotQuality

Northwestern is getting to the free-throw line at the highest rate during Big Ten play, but Iowa is top-five in the country at preventing teams from getting to the free-throw line.

Northwestern’s defense has been running pretty well this season. It’s up to 22nd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom, but it’s just seventh in that same category during conference play.

The shooting regression indicators are also showing that Northwestern is likely going to head in the wrong direction sometime soon.

Image via ShotQuality

The one thing about Northwestern is it played a relatively easy non-conference schedule, so some of its defensive metrics are a bit inflated.

The biggest one is 2-point field goal percentage allowed. For the season, the Wildcats are only allowing 43.1% from inside the arc, which is seventh in the country.

That’s very impressive, but so far during conference play, they’re allowing 49.3% from inside the arc, which is ninth in the Big Ten.

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Iowa Hawkeyes

Iowa is an outstanding offensive team, ranking seventh in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, per KenPom.

It also just put up 93 points and 1.21 PPP on Rutgers, which is ranked second in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom.

What the Hawkeyes do a good job of is attacking the rim and taking quality 3-point shots, which are the two most valuable shots on a basketball court.

During Big Ten play, Iowa has the third-highest Rim & 3-Point Rate and is averaging 1.07 PPP on those shots. It also spaces the floor incredibly well, which has led to it being a top-10 team in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.

It also helps that Iowa is top-10 in turnover percentage on offense.

Image via ShotQuality

Iowa has one of the best offensive players in the country at its disposal in Kris Murray. He’s every bit as good as his brother, Keegan, who now plays for the Sacramento Kings.

Kris is averaging 20.8 points and 8.6 rebounds per game while also shooting 61.4% from inside the arc and 36% from 3-point range.

The problems that have existed for Iowa have been on the defensive end of the floor. For whatever reason, teams are just shooting lights out against the Hawkeyes, as they’re 128th in defensive efficiency on KenPom but 41st on ShotQuality

Iowa is very bad at defending in transition, allowing 1.37 PPP, which is 294th in the country.

It’s also well below average at defending catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, which is a problem against a Northwestern team that takes them at a top-20 frequency in the country.

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Northwestern vs. Iowa Betting Pick

This is a really good spot for the Hawkeyes at home, where they’ve played their best this season, going 10-2.

The return of Patrick McCaffery to the lineup was huge for Iowa to put up insane offensive numbers against the second-best defense in the country.

Now the Hawkeyes are facing a Northwestern team that’s due for a ton of negative shooting regression on defense. The Wildcats are also coming in on a three-game winning streak against three teams ranked outside the top 70 on KenPom.

So, I love the Hawkeyes -6.5 (FanDuel) to end the Wildcats’ win streak.

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Responsible Gaming: The Importance of Odds Shopping Across Sportsbooks and Ignoring Sportsbook Loyalty

With sportsbooks’ ever-increasing efforts to ensure long-term profitability and sustained success, it is more important than ever to understand the utility of odds shopping.

Sportsbooks are increasingly adjusting their listed odds to improve their chance of profitability and limit what bettors can earn. They are businesses, after all. As such, odds shopping is a crucial factor in being a more successful bettor in the online sports betting era.

If you’re not familiar with odds shopping, it’s essentially the practice of looking at odds for the same market across a number of different sportsbooks.

Odds Shopping

Over the long term, only an extremely small percentage of people will be profitable through betting on sports. There are a number of factors that go into this, but one of the primary ones “juice,”which is officially called vigorish.

This is the (-110) that you see after a spread, and it’s the reason you win $9.10 on a standard $10 spread wager.

However, those numbers in the parentheses and even the spread numbers themselves (as well as other lines, such as money lines and totals) can vary from sportsbook to sportsbook, making it imperative that you explore all of the options available to you in order to maximize your long-term profitability.

After all, you’d rather win more money betting on sports than less money when your bets are successful, and this is crucial for that effort.

For example, let’s examine the Baylor vs. Texas college basketball game that was set to be played on Jan. 30.

At 11:35 a.m. ET, different sportsbooks had the spread on the game at a full point different. At DraftKings, Texas was a -3.5 (-115) favorite, while it was a -4.5 (-105) favorite at BetMGM.

As you can see, bettors have the option of taking either side with different odds and juice — but if you had to take Texas -4.5, the importance of odds shopping becomes even clearer.

While BetMGM has listed Texas -4.5 at -105, DraftKings has the same line at +100. If you wanted Baylor at +4.5, the price on the Bears is also significantly worse at DraftKings.

You may think that this is a marginal difference, but over the long term, this is significant. For example, take the following chart of winnings for a $100 bettor over a 400-game sample size in which the bettor won just over 50% of their bets.

Record Average Price Profit
210-190 +100 $2,000
210-190 -105 $1,000
210-190 -110 $90
210-190 -115 -$739

Chart taken from, “9 Common Sports Betting Mistakes to Avoid.”

As you can see, an average price differential of -115 versus +100 creates a $2,739 difference in winnings.

Sportsbook Loyalty

Many sports bettors are loyal to certain sportsbooks for a few reasons. These include but are not limited to:

  • Downloading one sportsbook first.
  • Enjoying the user experience of a certain sportsbook over another.
  • Seeking to gain rewards or VIP status at a certain sportsbook

While these reasons are understandable, being loyal to sportsbooks and failing to utilize odds shopping can hinder your long-term success with sports betting.

Again, though sports betting is a recreational activity for a vast majority of bettors, when money gets involved it’s still better to be smarter with regard to your funds than reckless.

Odds shopping and limiting your sportsbook loyalty is a great way to maximize your outcomes.

West Virginia vs TCU Odds, Picks: Miles’ Absence to Impact Frogs

college basketball odds-picks-prediction-west virginia mountaineers vs tcu horned frogs-tuesday january 31

West Virginia vs. TCU Odds

Tuesday, Jan. 31
9 p.m. ET
ESPNU
West Virginia Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+1.5
-105
143.5
-105o / -115u
+105
TCU Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-1.5
-115
143.5
-105o / -115u
-132
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

West Virginia and TCU both return to conference play after battling it out in their respective SEC/Big 12 Challenge matchups on Saturday.

West Virginia was able to outlast Auburn in Morgantown behind a 31-point explosion from Erik Stevenson.

This performance allowed the Mountaineers to amass a 17-point second-half lead before the Tigers were able to make things interesting late.

On the other side, TCU was rattled in its game against Mississippi State due to Mike Miles’ injury. Luckily, Miles’ MRI came back negative, meaning the Horned Frogs won’t lose the key to their offense for the entire season.

Even without Miles, the Horned Frogs were able to force overtime against a stifling Mississippi State defense.

In order to find out how TCU will fair moving forward in Big 12 play, let’s take a look at the odds and make a prediction for West Virginia vs. TCU.

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West Virginia Mountaineers

Bob Huggins has finally built some momentum with this 2022-23 West Virginia team, as it has won three of its last four games. These recent wins are crucial for the Mountaineers, who opened Big 12 play on a five-game losing streak.

These three wins included a 74-65 victory against TCU on Jan. 18. The Mountaineers forced a total of 19 turnovers in that matchup thanks to their defensive pressure, which is creating turnovers at a 21.8% rate (top-40 nationally).

TCU’s inability to grapple with West Virginia’s pressure will be highlighted without Miles, who has a 19.9% assist rate this season.

In addition, Miles was crucial for the Horned Frogs on the offensive end in that game, as he led all scorers with 21 points.

Look for TCU’s offense to be looking for answers against a West Virginia defense that excels at making its opponents uncomfortable.

On the offensive end, the Mountaineers rank 22nd in adjusted efficiency due to their ability to create second chances and get to the free-throw line. West Virginia ranks 28th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, creating second looks on 34.4% of its shots.

This will be significant against a Horned Frogs defense allowing offensive rebounds on 31.6% of their opponents’ attempts (298th nationally).

In addition to this success on the glass, West Virginia will look to continue its success from the perimeter. The Mountaineers shot 45% from beyond the arc against Auburn on Saturday, a great sign for a West Virginia team getting just 28% of its points from 3-point range.

Overall, I expect the Mountaineers’ offense to continue to progress while TCU scrambles to replace Miles on the other end.

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TCU Horned Frogs

The Horned Frogs have had a successful season due to their ability to get out in transition on the offensive end. TCU ranks 38th nationally in average possession length, using an average of just 16.1 seconds.

This ability to expose teams in space can be attributed to the play of Miles, who leads the Horned Frogs with 18.1 points per game. In addition to his scoring ability, Miles is second on the team in total assists with 3.0 per game.

This play by Miles has resulted in TCU scoring 58.8% of its shots from the interior, the 20th-highest rate in the country.

Because of this, the Horned Frogs don’t shoot much from the perimeter — just 29.6% of their total attempts come from beyond the arc (333rd nationally).

In order to keep up with a West Virginia offense continuing to progress, the Horned Frogs will need to replace Miles’ ability to score and facilitate for others.

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West Virginia vs. TCU Betting Pick

Overall, TCU was able to step up without its star Miles, taking a four-point lead into the under six timeout on the road against Mississippi State.

However, I believe this matchup with West Virginia is where TCU truly begins to feel the weight of Miles’ absence.

Huggins and the Mountaineers have been successful at making teams uncomfortable by creating pressure on the defensive end.

On the other end, West Virginia has begun to find success from the perimeter, giving its offense a much needed second dimension.

Pick: West Virginia +3.5 or Better

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NCAAB Odds, Best Bets: 6 Top Picks for Kansas State vs. Kansas & More

college basketball odds-best-bets-picks-kansas state vs kansas-tuesday january 31

Monday featured the drama of Iowa State blowing a 20+ point lead vs. Texas Tech, but we have an even bigger Big 12 matchup on Tuesday.

Kansas State travels to Lawrence to take on Kansas in a top-10 duel.

However, that’s not all we’re looking forward to on Tuesday.

Our staff has six total best bets for tonight’s slate, giving you a plethora of betting value to help formulate your college basketball card.

Dive in below and get the top college basketball odds and picks for Tuesday’s slate.

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Tuesday’s 6 College Basketball Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball staff is targeting from Tuesday’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game
Time
Pick
8 p.m. ET
Kansas State +8.5
8 p.m. ET
Kansas State +8.5
8 p.m. ET
Under 146
9 p.m. ET
West Virginia +2.5
9 p.m. ET
Indiana +3
9 p.m. ET
Indiana +3
Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Kansas State vs. Kansas

Tuesday, Jan. 31
8 p.m. ET
ESPN+
Kansas State +8.5

By Brett Pund

Kansas State won the first matchup of the Sunflower Showdown at home, and I feel the bookmakers are giving Kansas too many points in the rematch.

For one, this is a more difficult scheduling spot for the Jayhawks after they had to travel to Rupp Arena to take on Kentucky on Saturday night.

I would expect head coach Bill Self to have his team up for this rivalry game, but you know the Jayhawks already had to get up to beat the SEC program.

Another reason for this bet is how Kansas has played at home in conference play. In the four contests at Allen Fieldhouse, Self’s squad failed to cover this number in all four, with an average margin of victory of just 2.67.

This also includes a TCU team coming in and beating the Jayhawks by 23 points in their last home game.

Meanwhile, Kansas State has victories on the road at Texas and Baylor in Big 12 play, so it’s proven it can play well away from home.

In the first matchup, Kansas closed as a -1.5 favorite, which makes you wonder what’s causing this big change after Kansas State won that game. It’s just too many points for me.

Pick: Kansas State +8.5 (Play to +7.5)

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Kansas State +8.5

By Cooper Van Tatenhove

Kansas State and Kansas will meet in a rematch of one of the most entertaining games in the Big 12 so far this season. In their first meeting, the Wildcats were able to outlast the Jayhawks, 83-82, in overtime.

This loss sparked an uncharacteristic three-game losing streak for Self and the Jayhawks that included losses to TCU and Baylor.

This Saturday, the Jayhawks were able to get back on the winning side in Lexington against a Kentucky team that has had its ups and downs this season. Kansas was led by junior Jalen Wilson, who scored a game-high 22 points on 9-of-18 shooting.

Although this is a great spot to back a Jayhawks team looking for revenge at Allen Fieldhouse, I believe this number has gotten too high considering what Kansas State brings to the table.

On the offensive end, Kansas State is able to score 65.5% of its shots off an assist, the sixth-highest rate in the country. This ability to create in the open floor and half-court is critical when facing a Jayhawks defense that is limiting its opponents to 47.6% of their baskets off an assist.

The one area this Wildcats team has struggled offensively is from the 3-point line. As a result, the Wildcats score just 28% of their points from beyond the arc, which is 273rd nationally.

However, this is also an area Kansas has struggled in defensively in Big 12 play. The Jayhawks are allowing teams to shoot 36.1% from deep (10th in the Big 12).

In the first matchup, the Wildcats were able to connect on seven of their 17 total 3-point attempts.

Additionally, Kansas State has thrived on its ability to get to the free-throw line, scoring 20.6% of its points from the charity stripe. This is an area the Wildcats can expose a Kansas defense that is allowing 20% of its opponents’ points to come from this range.

A Jayhawks team that lost Zuby Ejiofor to a foot injury and has Kevin McCullar Jr. practicing through an ankle injury can’t afford to get into foul trouble.

Overall, I’m happy to back Kansas State to cover a spread that has ballooned to over two possessions against a Kansas team that has won just one game by double digits in Big 12 play.

Pick: Kansas State +8.5 (Play to +8)


Under 146

By Patrick Strollo

The No. 8 Kansas Jayhawks host the No. 7 Kansas State Wildcats in a battle for hegemony in the Big 12 and the Sunflower State.

Tonight’s high-stakes matchup will be the 10th duel when both teams are ranked in the top 10 and the first top-10 matchup between the two since the 2010 Big 12 Championship.

Both teams last met on Jan. 17 in a game that saw Kansas State defeat Kansas in overtime, 83-82. Had the game not gone to overtime, the final total would have been 144.

I think taking the under is the angle here, as both teams will have a better feel for what to expect tonight.

The Wildcats were lethal from downtown in that victory, connecting on 41.2% of attempts from deep. The Jayhawks will look to contest the deep ball more effectively in this game.

We should see a mean reversion from beyond the arc for a Wildcat team that has a season average of 35.5% from 3-point land.

Both teams play at a moderate tempo, with each program averaging 68 possessions per game. Kansas and Kansas State rank 121st and 82nd in Adjusted Tempo, respectively. This should allow the Kansas defense to gain traction on its home court.

Look for redshirt senior McCullar to be a difference maker for the Jayhawks on defense. McCullar leads the Big 12 in steals (2.5), which ranks ninth in the nation. He had just one steal in the previous meeting, but I expect him to have a stronger performance tonight.

Expect both teams to have a better grasp on each other this time around after the high-scoring, feeling-out game that took place in Manhattan.

I like the Kansas defense to make a stand at home as the Jayhawks look to even out the season series.

I am projecting the total for this game at 140.5, and I recommend playing the under at 144 or higher.



West Virginia vs. TCU

Tuesday, Jan. 31
9 p.m. ET
ESPNU
West Virginia +2.5

By Stuckey

I know TCU has revenge on its mind after a loss in Morgantown to these Mountaineers earlier in the season.

I also am aware TCU is coming off of a loss, so it’s not the best spot on the surface.

However, I’m willing to back the road dog here and fade a TCU team that I believe will be lost without star guard Mike Miles.

Miles is just so important to the Horned Frogs’ transition offense, which is the deadliest in the country. He’s the engine that makes the entire car go and also takes all of the biggest shots in the clutch.

It will take some time for the Frogs to adjust to life without him.

Meanwhile, West Virginia is playing great basketball of late and is due for some positive shooting regression in league play.

It should also dominate the offensive glass in this particular matchup.


Indiana vs. Maryland

Tuesday, Jan. 31
9 p.m. ET
ESPN2
Indiana +3

By BJ Cunningham

The Hoosiers are hot right now — winners of four straight — and this is a fantastic matchup for them.

Ever since Indiana got Trayce Jackson-Davis back from injury, it’s been attacking the rim at an elite level. The Hoosiers are putting up 1.30 PPP and are shooting 65% on shot attempts at the rim, which is a top-35 mark in the country.

During Big Ten play, Maryland is 13th in FG% allowed at the rim.

Indiana is also one of the higher-frequency transition teams in the Big Ten, which will work out well against Maryland. The Terps are second-to-last during conference play in PPP allowed in transition.

On top of that, Indiana is putting up 0.99 PPP in the half-court during conference play while Maryland is 10th defensively.

During Big Ten play, Maryland is 13th in effective field goal percentage and is shooting under 32% from behind the arc. The Terrapins are one of the highest-frequency teams in the country running pick-and-roll, and it’s second in the Big Ten in PPP in pick-and-roll.

Meanwhile, Indiana is pretty average at defending PnR sets, so that will be the Terps’ best path to success offensively. However, the Terps are not finishing at the rim at a high level, and like I already mentioned, they’re struggling shooting from deep, so that means they will be forced into a lot of mid-range jumpers.

During conference play, Indiana owns a +6.6 adjusted efficiency differential while Maryland is at -2.5. I really don’t think Indiana should be an underdog, so I like the value of +2.5.

Pick: Indiana +3 (Play to +1)


Indiana +3

By Mike McNamara

I get that the XFINITY Center will be absolutely rocking tonight, but I still think the wrong team is favored here.

Maryland enters its final leg of a three-game home stand after dominating both Wisconsin and Nebraska over the last week.

The Terps are playing good basketball right now, but the Hoosiers are on another level.

Indiana has won five in a row, with only one of those games being decided by single digits.

The biggest reason for the uptick in IU’s play? A commitment to the defensive end of the floor.

That defense should travel to College Park on Tuesday night, and the Hoosiers also have a big advantage on the interior in this one.

Maryland doesn’t really have anybody that can cover Jackson-Davis one-on-one on the block, which should lead to plenty of kick-out, catch-and-shoot opportunities for guys like Miller Kopp and Trey Galloway.

I like the Hoosiers’ chances of securing the road victory and moving their winning streak to six games, so I will gladly back them as short underdogs in this one.

Pick: Indiana +3 (Play to +2)



Kentucky vs. Mississippi Tuesday College Basketball Odds, Best Bet: The Elite Betting Algorithm Pick (Jan. 31)

kentucky-vs-mississippi-tuesday-college-basketball-odds-best-bet-elite-betting-algorithm-pick-jan-31

Kentucky vs. Mississippi Odds, Best Bet

Kentucky Odds -7.5 (-114)
Mississippi Odds +7.5 (-106)
Over/Under 135.5
Date Tuesday, Jan. 31
Time 9 p.m. ET
Channel ESPN

*Odds as of Tuesday night according to FanDuel.

The Action Network has developed an elite betting algorithm that targets roughly 50 college basketball games per year and encompasses UK vs. Ole Miss on Tuesday night.

The proprietary algorithm has gone 492-373-22 (57% win rate) since 2005, returning an annual 11% on investment during that timeframe.

Since 2005, if you had wagered $500 on the roughly 50 college basketball games per season that have fit this algorithm, you’d be up more than $45,000.

We don’t recommend using this betting algorithm as an alternative to investing — variance is a much sturdier constraint in sports gambling compared to the financial markets — but similar principles apply in regard to gains over a long time horizon.

Kentucky vs. Mississippi College Basketball Best Bet, Prediction: The Elite Algorithm Pick 

This betting algorithm has a list of parameters it considers when targeting a specific game and line. In general, it fades the public during conference games.

The public tends to overvalue popular conference opponents — while wagering on them heavily — and sportsbooks are forced to price lines accordingly.

“Fade the public,” indicates empirically that fewer than 25% of bettors are riding with the team that you’d be betting on. Conversely, 75% or more of the public is enamored with the team you’d fade.

In addition, the game in question must have a lower total (between 128 and 146.5) in order to temper variance.

Lastly, the conference game needs to take place in the Big 12, SEC, Pac-12, ACC, Big Ten or Big East. So, only big-time conferences work for this ATS system.

All those parameters fit Ole Miss’ point spread tonight. The Action Network’s proprietary tracking data reports that only 22% of wagers from all major American sportsbooks are on the to cover on Thursday.

The best price on the market is with FanDuel at +7.5  (-106).

Pick: Ole Miss +7.5

78% of the public is taking the points with Kentucky. The total also fits the aforementioned parameters.

Keep in mind that this historically profitable algorithm applies to about 50 college basketball games per year. While Tuesday night might be an opportunity to cash in, this is a long-term investment.

In order to maximize your 11% return on investment, make sure to follow through whenever this algorithm provides picks for the rest of the season.

PRO Pick: Ole Miss +7.5 (-106)

Mississippi State vs. South Carolina Odds, Pick: Tuesday’s College Basketball Spread Landing Smart Money

mississippi state vs south carolina odds-picks-predictions-college-basketball-tuesday

Mississippi State vs. South Carolina Pick

Mississippi State Odds -9.5
South Carolina Odds +9.5
Over/Under 126.5
Date Tuesday, Jan. 31
Time 6:30 p.m. ET
Channel SEC Network

*Odds as of Tuesday morning

Tuesday’s college basketball odds board is 27 games deep and gets started with Mississippi State taking on South Carolina.

Mississippi State is nearly a double-digit road favorite against South Carolina, which isn’t all that unexpected based on each team’s respective record.

But for our purposes, the most important factor is which team is most likely to cover the Mississippi State vs. South Carolina spread. When it comes to our college basketball picks and predictions, that answer is clear.

Let me explain.

Mississippi State vs. South Carolina Pick

As mentioned, Mississippi State is a 9.5-point favorite against South Carolina based on the latest college basketball odds, and wiseguys have already impacted this line.

The Gamecocks actually opened at +10, but sharps quietly steamed South Carolina at that number, pushing this spread down to a consensus of +9.5 and even further to +9 at shops like PointsBet and Circa Sports in Las Vegas.

Steam refers to sudden uniform line movement across that market that’s often the result of bettors with the respect and resources to move odds getting down on the same side of the same game at multiple sportsbooks, all at once.

And finally, be sure to do yourself a favor and visit the Action Network’s College Basketball Live Odds Page to pick off South Carolina at the best price possible since this line does vary depending on the shop.

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Caesars Sportsbook Promo Code Scores $1,250 in Most States, $1,500 in Ohio for Tuesday CBB

caesars sportsbook promo code graphic with gradey dick of kansas

Tuesday evening’s selection of college basketball features several compelling matchups for sports bettors to use the Caesars Sportsbook promo code ACTION4FULL to seize up to $1,250 in bet value.

If you’re betting in Ohio, the ceiling is kicked up to a $1,500 offer with Caesars Sportsbook promo code ACTION41BET. It works the same, just a higher value.

Caesars Promo Code State Bet Amount
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Alright, so what does any of this mean? Let’s dive deeper into some Tuesday college basketball bets and walk through it together.

First Bets on the House

Before we get into it, take a quick look at our 12 sports betting tips and a how-to for reading American odds guide.

Your first bet with the book will be your “first bet on the house.” So it’s a good idea to consider a play that’s comfortably researched, but has a higher payout.

It might seem tempting to place a bet on a team that’s hot. Or, fade the team that’s in a slump. You shouldn’t do either. Historically, both are overvalued.

There are several ways to boost your line. For this example, we’ll compile a three-leg parlay of several Tuesday best bets from our staff to make things interesting.

Brett Pund on Kansas +8.5:

In the four contests at Allen Fieldhouse, Self’s squad failed to cover this number in all four, with an average margin of victory of just 2.67. This also includes a TCU team coming in and beating the Jayhawks by 23 points in their last home game.

Meanwhile, Kansas State has victories on the road at Texas and Baylor in Big 12 play, so it’s proven it can play well away from home. In the first matchup, Kansas closed as a -1.5 favorite, which makes you wonder what’s causing this big change after Kansas State won that game. It’s just too many points for me.

BJ Cunningham on Indiana +3:

Indiana is putting up 0.99 PPP in the half-court during conference play while Maryland is 10th defensively.

During Big Ten play, Maryland is 13th in effective field goal percentage and is shooting under 32% from behind the arc. The Terrapins are one of the highest-frequency teams in the country running pick-and-roll, and it’s second in the Big Ten in PPP in pick-and-roll.

Meanwhile, Indiana is pretty average at defending PnR sets, so that will be the Terps’ best path to success offensively. However, the Terps are not finishing at the rim at a high level, and like I already mentioned, they’re struggling shooting from deep, so that means they will be forced into a lot of mid-range jumpers.

Stuckey on West Virginia +2:

I’m willing to back the road dog here and fade a TCU team that I believe will be lost without star guard Mike Miles.

Miles is just so important to the Horned Frogs’ transition offense, which is the deadliest in the country. He’s the engine that makes the entire car go and also takes all of the biggest shots in the clutch.

It will take some time for the Frogs to adjust to life without him. Meanwhile, West Virginia is playing great basketball of late and is due for some positive shooting regression in league play. It should also dominate the offensive glass in this particular matchup.

So, we have the following to use as our bet on the house:

Bet Odds
Kansas State +8.5 -110
Indiana +3 -110
West Virginia +2 -110
Total Odds +596

We can bet anything up to $1,250. If you can afford it, it’s best to maximize the value of the offer by betting the full amount. So that’s what we’ll do in this mock bet.

If we bet $1,250 on this parlay at +596, we’ll see back a $7,450 for an $8,700 total payout. That’s if it all hits. If one of the legs misses, the bet loses and we see back $1,250 in bet credits form.

Those can’t be cashed out though. The catch is to bet with them to win real profits back. Let’s talk about how we can take an angle to doing so.

A Strategy to Bet Credits

The bet above has an implied improbability of 14.4%. In the case it doesn’t hit, we have $1,250 in bet credits. We are essentially getting double the opportunity with the money we deposited.

We’ll still want longer odds. So we’ll break off $100 of our $1,250 pot and place a straight-up bet on Florida to defeat Tennessee on Wednesday night. These odds are at +230 at the time of publish.

We have $230 ($100 stake is taken back) in real cash if Florida wins, but we lose the $100 without profiting anything if they lose.

Signing Up With Caesars

  1. Click here and select your state, and input the Caesars promo code ACTION4FULL (or ACTION41BET in Ohio).
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  4. Download the Caesars Sportsbook app and login.
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Here’s everything you need to know if you’re traveling and betting.

Virginia Tech vs. Miami Tuesday College Basketball Best Bet: Algorithm, Expert Pick (Jan. 31)

virginia-tech-vs-miami-tuesday-college-basketball-best-bet-algorithm-expert-pick-jan-31

The Action Network has developed an elite betting algorithm that indicates one of the biggest college basketball edges on Tuesday night is on Virginia Tech vs. Miami.

The algorithm is on the spread and has a betting edge of roughly 5% for this matchup, which tips off at 7 p.m. ET.

Effectively, you’ll be receiving a 5% discount relative to its market price.

Another way to think about it: you’re accumulating 5% in expected value by making that pick. Over the long run, if you exclusively bet on things that provide positive expected value, you’re guaranteed to make a profit. In the short term, of course, variance is a constraint.

Our proprietary tracking data says that — besides our algorithm — sharp and big moneyed bettors across the nation like this side of the spread as well.

And one of our premier college basketball handicappers is also on this side of the spread.

We don’t recommend using this betting algorithm as an alternative to investing — variance is a much sturdier constraint in sports gambling compared to the financial markets — but similar principles apply in regard to gains over a long time horizon.


Virginia Tech vs. Miami: The Elite Algorithm Pick for Tuesday 


This betting algorithm, sharps and experts are in conjunction on one thing: fade Miami at home and go with the road underdog.

Virginia Tech should be closer to +2 underdogs at home tonight, according to our proprietary algorithm. But the best price on the market is at +3.5 (-105).

That’s the aforementioned 5% betting edge, especially at that -105 vig.

PRO Pick: Virginia Tech +3.5 (-105)

Manchester United vs. Nottingham Forest League Cup Odds, Pick: Soccer Expert Predicts Low-Event Second Leg

chelsea-vs-manchester-united-preview-prediction

Manchester United vs. Nottingham Forest Odds

Wednesday, Feb. 1
3 p.m. ET
ESPN+
United Odds -250
Forest Odds +700
Draw +350
Over/Under 2.5 (-134 / +105)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) (+100 / -124)
Odds via bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here.

No team has ever come from three goals down in the second leg of a League Cup semifinal in the cup’s history. After Manchester United thrashed Nottingham Forest 3-0 at the City Ground last Wednesday, that’s the task facing Steve Cooper’s Nottingham Forest side as the two-legged semifinal shifts to Old Trafford in Manchester.

Forest had their chances to remain within touching distance — a disallowed goal that would have leveled the match at 1-1 and an 89th minute Bruno Fernandes goal made it 3-0. Manchester United produced more than 2.5 xG in the match and were clearly deserved winners.

The question surrounding this second leg is what choices United make with their top talent. Christian Eriksen is out until April and Scott McTominay has been ruled out, which means you can expect a midfield pairing of Casemiro and Fred. Bu,t this is also United’s 10th match since New Year’s Eve.

Erik Ten Hag has to make a decision on whether he’ll play star attackers Marcus Rashford and Bruno Fernandes, knowing they have three league matches in the next 10 days. With some rotation expected and no need for United to chase margin or goals, there is a value side.

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Manchester United Improving in Numerous Ways

United’s main improvements this season haven’t come from the attack, but from the defense. The Red Devils have drastically improved in transition defense, out of possession structure and set piece defending. All three were major issues for Man United under Ralf Rangnick and especially Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.

Now, United are fourth in ball recoveries, third in xG per set piece allowed and fifth in big scoring chances conceded. All of that contributes to 8.6 xGA allowed in nine home league matches this season. The attack has mostly been carried by the red-hot goal scoring streak of Marcus Rashford, who I don’t expect to start this match with a three-goal lead on aggregate.

Rashford has more than double the xG and goals of any player at the club — twice as much as Fernandes. This could be a prime spot for both to rotate out of the side as Ten Hag turns to youngsters Anthony Elanga and Alejandro Garnacho. Both have shown plenty of promise in limited spells, but neither are as productive as Rashford when he’s in form like this.

Losing Eriksen is more of a loss to this United attack than you’d think too. Eriksen had 0.42 assists per 90 and seven total assists this season. Only Fernandes had more progressive passes in the whole side, and no one completed more passes into the final third than Eriksen. Fred is more of a ball-winning and defensive choice, but he doesn’t have the passing range to break open a defense that Eriksen does.

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Nottingham Forest in Deep Trouble

The main problem for Nottingham Forest in the first leg is that they were able to generate 13 shots, but most of them were low quality. Forest were a bit unlucky to not get that goal in transition because of the offsides, but they only created 0.65 xG at home in 90 minutes. They are now dealing with plenty of injuries of their own.

Morgan Gibbs-White has been the best ball progressor for this Forest side and he went off injured last match. He leads Forest in passes completed into the penalty area, dribbles completed and touches in the attacking third. Without Gibbs-White, Forest lose their most talented and productive attacker.

Taiwo Awoniyi will miss this match up front for Forest as well, which leaves Brennan Johnson and potentially Emmanuel Dennis up top. Dennis has produced 0.17 xG per 90 in four 90s this year, which is not nearly good enough. Jesse Lingard could play in this match, but his 0.18 xG + xA per match is not inspiring as a potential Gibbs-White replacement.

Forest don’t have a clear way of exploiting United on the road, especially if the Red Devils play a first choice defense and don’t take a ton of chances in possession up 3-0 in the tie.

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United vs. Forest Pick

The over/under closed at 3 for this exact fixture on Dec. 27 in the Premier League, so you are paying a bit of a cup tax and a second leg tax with the total sitting just north of 2.5 on Wednesday.

Given how well the United have run relative to their xG in the last couple of months, it’s a good time to sell high on an attack that is unlikely to have Rashford and questionable to have Fernandes. Expect to see United in second gear for most of this match given that Ten Hag played a strong side against Reading in the FA Cup last weekend.

Forest’s attack should also be weaker given its injuries and United’s stellar defense at home, so I’ll take this under at -105 or better.

Pick: Under 2.5 (-105 or better)

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Kansas State vs Kansas Odds, Picks: Your NCAAB Betting Guide

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Kansas State vs. Kansas Odds

Tuesday, Jan. 31
8 p.m. ET
ESPN+
Kansas State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+8.5
-110
145.5
-110o / -110u
+300
Kansas Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-8.5
-110
145.5
-110o / -110u
-385
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

The No. 8 Kansas Jayhawks look for revenge as they welcome in-state rival No. 7 Kansas State to Allen Fieldhouse on Tuesday night.

After a three-game losing streak amid conference play, Kansas responded with a road win against Kentucky in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge.

The Jayhawks now return home to face the Wildcats, who took down Kansas in overtime two weeks ago.

KSU has won three of its last four and is tied for first in the conference standings.

Can Kansas State get the better of Kansas yet again, or will the Jayhawks come out with vengeance and take down their rival in dominant fashion?

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Kansas State Wildcats

One of the best storylines of the season has been first-year head coach Jerome Tang and his litter of transfers in Manhattan. Kansas State is 18-3 and first in the Big 12, thanks to a 6-2 conference record.

This is a veteran squad that’s 32nd in Division I experience. The Wildcats aren’t a tall or deep group, but they’re physical and aggressive.

The Wildcats attack the rim at the fourth-highest rate and often work in isolation. They draw a lot of fouls and use a fast-paced offense to open up offensive looks.

From a PPP perspective, Kansas State is more dominant out of the half-court, but it runs in transition at an extremely high rate.

Keyontae Johnson leads the way with 18.0 points per game, and has been the perfect complement to Markquis Nowell.

Nowell averages 16.9 points and 8.2 assists per game.

The Wildcats’ aggressiveness and up-tempo nature leads to frequent trips to the free-throw line, but it also sets them back in the turnover department (235th). The offense often goes as Johnson and Nowell does.

Defensively, this is a team playing above its pay grade. The Wildcats’ physicality leads to turnovers at a top-50 rate, but it also leads to foul trouble. They struggle on the offensive glass and are last in conference play at defending finishes at the rim.

They’re the 11th-best 3-point defense in the country, but that’s due for negative regression when looking at the Wildcats’ ShotQuality‘s metrics. They hold opponents to a 28% clip from beyond the arc while SQ metrics projects a 33% rate.

KSU is 90th in off-the-dribble 3s and outside the top 100 in catch-and-shoot 3s.

In Big 12 play, Kansas State is about average out of the half-court and less efficient in transition.

It’s 4-0 in overtime games and has been riding a bit of luck. On the road, the Wildcats are just 3-3.

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Kansas Jayhawks

After a dominant start to the season — Kansas opened with a 16-1 record that included five straight Big 12 wins — the Jayhawks stumbled to three consecutive losses.

But as Bill Self does, he righted the ship and avoided losing his fourth straight — which would have been a new career record — with a road win against Kentucky.

It’s hard to encapsulate the junior year leap Jalen Wilson has taken. The 6-foot-8 forward takes 32.7% of shots while on the floor and averages 21.4 points and 8.6 rebounds per game. He doesn’t turn the ball over much and his physicality has led to consistent trips to the free-throw line.

Kansas’ offense runs primarily through the pick-and-roll. This forces opposing defenses into tougher decisions, which often leads to finishes at the rim or off-screen ball movement from Gradey Dick on the perimeter.

While the Jayhawks aren’t a great 3-point shooting team, Dick has been a game-changing freshman. He’s shooting 42.7% from 3 and rarely turns the ball over.

Like its in-state foe, Kansas doesn’t have a deep roster. A big reason behind its eventual overtime loss to KSU was foul trouble, as Dick, KJ Adams Jr. and Kevin McCullar Jr. all fouled out. The Jayhawks are outside the top 200 in FTA/FGA.

On the defensive end, Kansas is dominant defending the pick-and-roll. It defends the perimeter well and has been above-average at stopping finishes at the rim, per ShotQuality.

The Jayhawks’ biggest issue lies in the mid-range — dead last in PPP during conference play and 331st overall — and out of the post.

The good news? Kansas State rarely attacks in the mid-range and is extremely inefficient out of the post.

The way to beat this KU defense is in transition and not allowing it to get set. The Jayhawks can often switch without issues and defend well, both on the perimeter and near the rim.

That also leads to plenty of turnover opportunities and fast-break chances the other way.

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Kansas State vs. Kansas Betting Pick

If you take away the motivation factor and look at plain X’s and O’s, Kansas is the better team here.

The way to beat the Jayhawks is in transition and by forcing them into early foul trouble. We saw it become a problem in Manhattan, and that’s an area Self is more than aware of entering a second go around.

Kansas State is too reliant on its finishes at the rim and the two-man game between Nowell and Johnson.

Kansas State had absolutely no answer for Wilson a couple weeks ago, and the same will ring true on Tuesday. He scored 38 points, was 9-of-15 on 2-point attempts and added 11 free throws.

That was all with McCullar being a non-factor while battling foul trouble. He eventually fouled out after 23 minutes.

KSU should have no answer for Kansas’ physicality inside and second-chance opportunities should be plentiful.

The Wildcats have blatant turnover issues, which Kansas can exploit and turn into quick transition opportunities the other way. And this time, the Manhattan crowd won’t be there in support as the game begins to slip.

The biggest edge lies in the pick-and-roll, though. That’s where Kansas operates, and Kansas State is 195th defending the PnR from a PPP perspective, per ShotQuality.

That’s where the game will be won for Kansas, as it has a relentless offense inside and can use Dick on the perimeter for added success.

When you factor in the added motivation of a revenge spot — plus the fact that Kansas will be at The Phog in what will be a raucous environment — I love backing the Jayhawks here.

Pick: Kansas -6.5

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Nebraska vs Illinois Odds, Picks: Why to Target the Under

college-basketball-odds-picks-prediction-nebraska-cornhuskers-vs-illinois-fighting-illini-tuesday-january-31

Nebraska vs Illinois Odds

Tuesday, Jan. 31
7 p.m. ET
Big Ten Network
Nebraska Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+13.5
-102
135.5
-110o / -110u
+740
Illinois Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-13.5
-120
135.5
-110o / -110u
-1200
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

The Illinois Fighting Illini have now won six of their last seven games and will host the Nebraska Cornhuskers on Tuesday night.

The Illini have thrived on the defensive end, ranking 18th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom, and forcing opponents into poor shots. However, they do run at the 77th-quickest Adjusted Tempo, per KenPom.

Nebraska ranks 257th in Adjusted Tempo, and even though the Cornhuskers only have three Big Ten wins, they have the 56th-ranked Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.

Illinois is 12-8 to the under while Nebraska is 16-6. Even though Nebraska is now without Emmanuel Bandoumel, Juwan Gary and Blaise Keita, it may be able to hold the Illini offense in check slightly. The Illini should do the same to Nebraska.

The Cornhuskers are obviously dealing with a litany of critical injuries at the moment. Should we continue to play into both teams’ unders trend on Tuesday night?

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Nebraska Cornhuskers

The Cornhuskers rank fifth in the country defensively in Shot Selection, per Shot Quality. They also rank 45th in Open Three Rate and 43rd in Rim and Three Rate. The Illini may be shooting 32.5% from deep, but they rank 53rd in the country in 3-point attempt percentage.

Rim and Three Rate matters in these circumstances because the Illini are shooting 55.3% on 2-pointers this season. They also rank 49th in the country, per Shot Quality, in attacking the rim and getting out in transition. Since Nebraska tends to slow the game down to its pace, it should be able to limit how often the Fighting Illini get clear lanes to the hoop.

CBB Analytics

Derrick Walker is going to be the crux of Nebraska’s defense going forward because Wilhelm Breidenbach is a bit slow when defending the dribble. Walker is essentially the last line of defense left down low for Fred Hoiberg and the Cornhuskers. He will be tasked with defending Dain Dainja and Coleman Hawkins (at times), and these two play major roles in the offensive attack for the Illini.

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Illinois Fighting Illini

Illinois ranks 31st in PPP in transition and loves to push the pace, particularly with Terrance Shannon, Jr. Shannon has 139 free throw attempts this season and will draw contact on the drive. How often he is able to push the ball down floor and draw contact from Nebraska’s bigs will tell us how this game plays out.

Nebraska ranks eighth in the country in free throw attempt percentage defensively, and Illinois only shoots 66.2% as a team. Shannon shoots 78.4% from the stripe, but the Illini are otherwise relatively weak from the line. Unless Walker is doing the fouling, Nebraska should be in OK shape.

Nebraska ranks 329th in seconds per possession on defense. More often than not, even after a turnover, Nebraska can slow Illinois down.

How often both of these teams turn the ball over will go a long way toward deciding the total. Illinois ranks 221st in turnover percentage (19.1%), and Nebraska ranks 237th (19.2%). Illinois turns opponents over defensively 20% of the time, but Nebraska only does so 18% of the time.

If there are turnovers, Illinois will be forcing them and Nebraska should be able to catch up to the Illini and force a longer, half-court possession.

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Nebraska vs. Illinois Betting Pick

The market has not caught up to either of these programs, and their ATS records show on totals.

Last time out, these teams scored 126 combined points. Granted, Bandoumel and Gary (partially) were playing, but they played at Nebraska’s standard pace.

Take an under in this game to 134.5.

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No. 8 Kansas hosts No. 7 Kansas State for a rivalry matchup on Tuesday night.

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Clemson vs. Boston College Tuesday College Basketball Best Bet, Prediction: Sharp, Expert Pick (Jan. 31)

clemson-vs-boston-college-college-basketball-best-bet-prediction-sharp-expert-pick-jan-31

The Action Network has developed an elite betting algorithm that targets roughly 50 college basketball games per year and lights up for Clemson vs. Boston College on Tuesday night.

The proprietary algorithm has gone 492-373-22 (57% win rate) since 2005, returning an annual 11% on investment during that timeframe.

Since 2005, if you had wagered $500 on the roughly 50 college basketball games per season that have fit this algorithm, you’d be up more than $45,000.

We don’t recommend using this betting algorithm as an alternative to investing — variance is a much sturdier constraint in sports gambling compared to the financial markets — but similar principles apply in regard to gains over a long time horizon.

Clemson vs. Boston College College Basketball Best Bet, Prediction: Sharp, Expert Pick 

This betting algorithm has a list of parameters it considers when targeting a specific game and line. In general, it fades the public during conference games.

The public tends to overvalue popular conference opponents — while wagering on them heavily — and sportsbooks are forced to price lines accordingly.

“Fade the public,” indicates empirically that fewer than 25% of bettors are riding with the team that you’d be betting on. Conversely, 75% or more of the public is enamored with the team you’d fade.

In addition, the game in question must have a lower total (between 128 and 146.5) in order to temper variance.

Lastly, the conference game needs to take place in the Big 12, SEC, Pac-12, ACC, Big Ten or Big East. So, only big-time conferences work for this ATS system.

All those parameters fit Boston College’s point spread tonight. The Action Network’s proprietary tracking data reports that only 18% of wagers from all major American sportsbooks are on the Boilermakers to cover on Thursday.

The best price on the market is with FanDuel at +4.5 (-115).

Pick: Boston College +4.5 (-115)

A ridiculous 82% of the public is taking the points with Clemson. The total also fits the aforementioned parameters.

Keep in mind that this historically profitable algorithm applies to about 50 college basketball games per year. While Tuesday night might be an opportunity to cash in, this is a long-term investment.

In order to maximize your 11% return on investment, make sure to follow through whenever this algorithm provides picks for the rest of the season.

PRO Pick: Boston College +4.5 (-115)

Lakers vs. Knicks Odds, Expert Pick, Prediction | NBA Betting Preview (January 31)

Lakers vs. Knicks Odds

Lakers Odds +2.5
Knicks Odds -2.5
Over/Under 237
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
TV TNT
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Los Angeles Lakers take on the New York Knicks at Madison Garden on Tuesday night in their first meeting of the season.

The Lakers were without LeBron James and Anthony Davis in Monday night’s loss to Brooklyn, but expect them both to suit up against Julius Randle and the Knicks.

James has made his feelings about Madison Square Garden public — he loves to play there — and his absence Monday in Brooklyn was undoubtedly to ensure his best effort on the NBA’s biggest stage.

The Knicks will look to send the Lakers away from New York without a win and hand them their third-straight loss.

I’ll break down the odds and give my prediction for Tuesday night’s marquee matchup of the Los Angeles Lakers vs. the New York Knicks.

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Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers’ season has been a disappointing one, largely shaped by a 4-10 start.

Since that first month, the Lakers have played much better thanks to adjustments by Darvin Ham and an MVP-caliber run from Davis prior to a foot injury (surprise, surprise) that kept him out for 20 games in December and January.

Even during their slow start to the season, the Lakers started their games hot. They were one of the best first-half teams in the league at 9-5 against the spread, but they struggled to maintain momentum throughout the course of the game, giving up big leads in the second half.

The Lakers remain a top-tier first-half team with the sixth-best record in the league (29-21, according to EV Analytics), but lately they’ve struggled early.

In their last 10 games, their first-half road record is just 3-7 against the spread and 1-4 overall in their last five.

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New York Knicks

The New York Knicks have been a dominant first-half team all season at 36-15 against the spread (34.9% ROI).

Unlike the Lakers, the Knicks have sustained that dominance — especially at home. In their last 10 home games, the Knicks are 7-3 against the spread in the first 24 minutes.

New York’s early success can be largely attributed to the phenomenal play of Randle, who is having a high-caliber season after a disappointing 2021-2022.

Randle is averaging 24.7 points per game, 14.2 of which are coming in the first half — the ninth-most in the league, according to NBA.com.

Unsurprisingly, his scoring output is a result of high-volume shot attempts and solid efficiency. Randle ranks eighth in field goal attempts (10.2) and sixth in 3-point attempts (4.8) in the first half and he’s doing so on good percentages (47.3% and 37.7% respectively).

Lakers-Knicks Pick

No surprises here. I like the Knicks at home in the first half — a spot in which they’ve consistently delivered. If you have a book that accepts player props by half, I’d look to the over for both James’ and Randle’s first-half lines, too.

Pick: New York Knicks 1H -0.5 (-120) play to -1 (-115)

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NBA Player Prop & Expert Pick: How to Bet Anthony Davis in Lakers vs. Knicks (January 31)

nba-player prop-picks-betting-anthony davis-lakers vs knicks-january 31

PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.


NBA Player Prop & Pick

Anthony Davis to Record Double-Double

Odds -120 (Play to -135)
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
Books Available DraftKings

The theme of Anthony Davis’ season (and career, really) has been injuries and availability. While the 11-year veteran is having one of his best seasons statistically, he’s played in just 27 of his team’s 51 games.

With Davis coming back from his latest foot injury that sidelined him for more than a month, Lakers head coach Darvin Ham has elected to bring his prized big man off the bench in an effort to ease him back into his regular workload.

Despite the limited minutes, Davis has recorded a double-double in each of his first two games back in action.

In fact, in the 25 full games Davis has played, he’s recorded at least 10 points and 10 rebounds in 20 of those contests. This includes each of his last 15 games. The eight-time All-Star is having a resurgent season rebounding the ball, averaging 12 per game — a mark that would tie his single-season high.

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With Davis being load-managed last night, it would not surprise me to see him slide back into the starting lineup against the Knicks. And if not, I’m still comfortable with the workload he’s received off the bench, which included a 34-minute outing against the Celtics on Saturday.

On the other side, the Knicks will be without their man in the middle, Mitchell Robinson. Since he went down with a hand injury, opposing big men have recorded a double-double in 5-of-6 games against the Knicks (the one miss was Clint Capela, who finished with nine boards in only 19 minutes).

I have Davis projected to notch his 21st double-double of the season tonight and would play this line (or over 9.5 rebounds) up to -135.

Pick: Anthony Davis to Record Double-Double (-120 · Play to -135)


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NHL Odds, Preview, Expert Prediction: Senators vs. Canadiens (January 31)

Senators vs. Canadiens Odds

Senators Odds -180
Canadiens Odds +155
Over/Under 6.5 (+100 / -120)
Time 7 p.m. ET
TV TSN2
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

After a convincing shutout win, the Ottawa Senators head to Montreal to take on the Canadiens for the second time in as many games.

The Sens have played some decent hockey as of late, winning three in a row and going 5-5 in their last 10.

Montreal hasn’t had as much luck as its counterparts. Riddled with injuries, the Habs have gone 4-5-1 in their last 10, and they have lost four out of their last five. They also sit at the bottom of the Atlantic Division.

Here’s a look at our odds, as well as our prediction for the Ottawa Senators vs. Montreal Canadiens.

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Who Are the Ottawa Senators?

The Senators are an anomaly this year to me. They place toward the bottom of the Atlantic Division but have a solid core in place. But they’re also very top-heavy.

Captain Brady Tkachuk leads the squad in scoring, and veteran Claude Giroux has been a great pickup. Behind them, Tim Stutzle, Alex Debrincat and Drake Batherson have played exceptionally, but they haven’t got much outside of those five.

Even though the Senators don’t shine in the standings, they have a fairly decent even-strength game. They place 18th in expected goals with a 51.39 xGF% and average a little more than 10 high-danger chances.

Defensively, they’re really not terrible either. They’re about middle of the road, averaging 3.16 goals allowed, and 13th in expected goals allowed.

I think Ottawa would like to have better goaltending luck. Both Anton Forsberg and Cam Talbot have been inconsistent while splitting starts. Talbot’s been dealing with an injury, so expect Forsberg to take the crease. The Swedish netminder is playing to a +10.7 goals saved above expected (GSAx) and a .906 SV%.

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Montreal Canadiens Low on Scoring Options

With Cole Caufield out for the rest of the season, the Habs are going to have a much harder time creating offense. Beyond Caufield’s injury, there are also six players who are out with injuries.

Captain Nick Suzuki and Kirby Dach will do their best to will their team to the end of the season. Behind Suzuki and Dach, it’s incredibly slim pickings as they don’t have anyone else scoring above 20 points.

Montreal has had a really tough year generating an even-strength attack. It’ll be even harder with Caufield out. The team ranks 28th with a 43.42 xGF% and generates only a bit more than eight high-danger chances per game.

On the defensive end, they’re also a mess, allowing 3.68 goals per game and the second most expected goals allowed.

Jake Allen has been on and off the IR, and Sam Montembeault may be taking sole possession of the No. 1 goalie in Montreal. However, it was announced that Allen will be starting tonight. The veteran is playing to a +0.9 GSAx and an .893 SV%.

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Senators vs. Canadiens Pick

According to DraftKings, the Senators are a heavy favorite on the road, and I can see why.

The Canadiens haven’t had great luck as of late, and missing their top goalscorer for the rest of the season hurts bad. While I think there will be some motivation on Montreal’s side to correct its dreadful 5-0 loss, the Senators are just too hot right now as there’s still hope to make a playoff push.

Ottawa is a solid team that just hasn’t had the luck it’s been looking for. Part of the issue is I’m not crazy about D.J. Smith as head coach because looking at this roster, you can imagine why this team should contend for a playoff spot.

The difference between the Sens and an injury-riddled Canadiens roster is pretty drastic. I can see Ottawa coming out on top in regulation, so I will be betting them on the 60-minute moneyline (three-way line).

Pick: Ottawa Senators 60 Minute Moneyline (-110 at DraftKings)

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Heat vs. Cavaliers Odds, Expert Pick, Prediction | NBA Betting Preview (January 31)

Heat vs. Cavaliers Odds

Heat Odds +5.5
Cavaliers Odds -5.5
Over/Under 211.5
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
TV NBA League Pass
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Miami Heat will play their second game of a four-game road trip on Tuesday night when they go head-to-head with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The first game of Miami’s road trip did not go as planned, as the Heat suffered a 122-117 loss at the hands of the Charlotte Hornets. However, the Heat have still played good basketball as of late and had won four of five games prior to that loss.

On the other hand, Cleveland has been all over the place in the month of January. The Cavs are 8-7 overall this month and have not won two games in a row since January 4th.

Both Miami and Cleveland will look to find more consistency in this matchup, but injuries for both squads are likely to play a role. Here are the odds and prediction for the Eastern Conference matchup between the Miami Heat and Cleveland Cavaliers.

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Miami Heat

The Miami Heat managed to put up 117 points in a loss to the Hornets on Sunday afternoon, but that level of offensive production has not been the norm for the Heat this season.

According to TeamRankings, Miami ranks last in points per game with just 108.6. The Heat have been held to 100 points or fewer in three of their last five games, further displaying that this is an offense that lacks consistent fire power.

The biggest reason for such a low scoring output is Miami’s lack of a consistent perimeter shooter. Tyler Herro and Caleb Martin both shoot 37% from behind the arc, but everyone else on the Heat roster is below 34%. As a result, the Heat are shooting just 33.4% from three as a team this season, down from their league-leading 37.9% a season ago.

Another issue facing the Heat is their pace of play. According to NBA.com, the Heat rank 28th in Pace this season, generating just 97.18 offensive possessions per game. Pace doesn’t always have a large impact on the game, but combining Miami’s shooting inefficiencies with the fact that the Heat don’t give themselves many opportunities to score is a recipe for a low offensive output.

Miami is going to need to figure some things out on the offensive end of the floor if it wants to compete in this matchup.

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Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers have had an up and down start to 2023, but Cleveland has had plenty of success on its home court in January and the entire season for that matter.

Cleveland has played six games at home since January 1st, a stretch of time in which it has gone 5-1 overall. In those six games the Cavaliers are scoring an average of 116.3 points per game while simultaneously holding their opponents to an average of just 107.7 points per game, showing that this team is getting the job done on both ends of the floor.

That has been the story for most of the season for Cleveland. The Cavaliers are 10th in Offensive Rating at home (116.2) and third in Defensive Rating at home (107.8). That Net Rating of 8.4 ranks fourth in the NBA.

The main reason for Cleveland’s up and down month has been the absence of Donovan Mitchell, but it appears that he will back in the lineup after being taken off of the injury report and playing on Sunday against the Clippers. That gives this team a much-needed boost on the offensive end.

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Heat-Cavaliers Pick

Both Cleveland and Miami boast a great defense, but the gap in offensive production between the two teams leans heavily in Cleveland’s favor. I believe that will give the Cavaliers the edge in this matchup.

Cleveland has also been the most dominant team against the spread at home this year. The Cavs’ dominance on both ends has allowed them to have an ATS record of 17-8-1 at home this season (TeamRankings), while Miami’s ATS record on the road is just 10-13-1.

Jimmy Butler is also questionable for this matchup, which would certainly not help Miami’s struggling offense. His status is something to keep our eyes on.

I like Cleveland to continue its against-the-spread dominance in this one even if Butler is available for Miami. I would play the spread to 6.5.

Pick: Cavaliers -6.5 or Better


NBA Same Game Parlay Odds & Picks: 2 Bets for Pelicans vs. Nuggets (January 31)

Pelicans vs. Nuggets Odds

Pelicans Odds +6.5
Nuggets Odds -6.5
Moneyline +225/ -285
Over/Under 231.5
Time 10 p.m. ET
TV TNT
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The New Orleans Pelicans travel to Denver to take on the Nuggets while playing the second game of a three-game road trip. The Pelicans have lost eight of their last 10 overall and are fresh off a 135-110 romp Sunday night by the Milwaukee Bucks.

As for the Nuggets, they return home after a three-game road trip where they boast a 22-4 record on their own court. They will take on the Pelicans in the third game of a four-game season series, which is tied 1-1.

Last time these two teams met up, it was a back-and-forth affair with the Nuggets taking the lead in the final few seconds. Looks like we are in for another close contest especially with the Pelicans getting some key weapons back and healthy.

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NBA Same Game Parlay Odds & Pick

The Parlay: (+310)

  • Brandon Ingram Over 4.5 Assists (+105)
  • Michael Porter Jr. Over 15.5 Points (+100)

Brandon Ingram Over 4.5 Assists

Brandon Ingram is back for the Pelicans and will play his third game since missing more than two months with a toe injury. In the prior two games since coming back, Ingram struggled with efficiency and has shown signs of rust.

He’s averaged 17.5 points on 30% shooting from the floor. He’s really struggled from beyond the arc hitting only one made 3-point shot through 11 attempts.

Last season, we saw Ingram put up huge numbers against Denver, averaging 25.7 points on 46.4% shooting. But it’s tough to trust him in this spot given the time away. Throughout the three regular season meetings last year, Ingram logged five, 12, and nine assists per contest.

Looks like we could see him contributing more in that role against a very tough Nuggets defense.


Michael Porter Jr. Over 15.5 Points

Denver’s Michael Porter Jr. missed a month of time with a heel injury Nov. 22, which kept him sidelined until Dec. 23. Since coming back, he’s averaged 16.1 points per game on 49.5% shooting from the floor and 39.3% from beyond the arc.

He put up some huge numbers versus the Nuggets over the last three head-to-head meetings, averaging 38.3 minutes of game time and shooting 55.8% from the floor and 52.6% from beyond the arc. He’s logged 23.3 points per contest and 3.3 made 3-point shots.

Jamal Murray is questionable tonight with injury management of his knee, and this could be a prime opportunity to see a little more MPJ. Although his playing time has been much lower this season, this game could see him logging some good numbers.

He should be beaming with confidence with how well he’s been shooting as of late, especially in a favorable matchup against the Pels.

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FanDuel Ohio Promo Code Fetches $3,000 No-Sweat Bet on Heat-Cavaliers, All Tuesday NBA

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Tuesday’s Eastern Conference bout between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat arrives with a FanDuel Ohio promo code that allots $3,000 in total value on this game or any other around the league.

So this means that bettors in Ohio or any other state can place any wager up to $3,000 at FanDuel Sportsbook for Tuesday’s docket of games. And if the bet loses, they’ll be reimbursed with the amount they lost in bonus bets.

It’s good to note that there’s no code needed (or promo field in the FanDuel Sportsbook checkout flow).

Here’s a quick example before we discuss further: I bet $1,000 on the Heat to win straight up at +146 moneyline odds. If Miami wins, the bet would return a $2,460 payout, including the $1,000 I bet. If Cleveland emerges, I’d get my $1k back in bonus bets.

A Guide to FanDuel’s Promo Code

This offer is live in both Ohio and all other legalized sports betting states.

Let’s talk about how we can use the offer to our advantage with Tuesday’s selection of NBA.

Betting for Bonus Bets

We can never stress our key bonus betting strategy enough, which is to place you wagers on plus money. It benefits your pockets in the long run as opposed to always taking the juice.

In the meantime, we also suggest to follow sharp action. Those are the bettors that have made names for themselves with great track records. You can identify sharp action by finding where reverse line movement is: Lines move in opposite directions of the betting percentages because the market notes how sharp bettors are betting. Action’s PRO Report is a good tool for identifying these trends.

OK, let’s put together a bet for Tuesday’s Heat-Cavaliers game.

These two rest at sixth and fifth, respectively, in the Eastern Conference race. The last meeting on Nov. 20 resulted in a 113-87 Cleveland blowout. Cleveland has had an inconsistent January, but it remains an above .500 team both SU (31-21) and ATS (26-24-2). Miami (28-23) won three of its last four contests, but hasn’t had the same success ATS at 19-29-3.

Jacob McKenna made a sound argument for the Cavaliers to cover against the Heat again Tuesday evening:

Both Cleveland and Miami boast a great defense, but the gap in offensive production between the two teams leans heavily in Cleveland’s favor. I believe that will give the Cavaliers the edge in this matchup.

Cleveland has also been the most dominant team against the spread at home this year. The Cavs’ dominance on both ends has allowed them to have an ATS record of 17-8-1 at home this season (TeamRankings), while Miami’s ATS record on the road is just 10-13-1.

Jimmy Butler is also questionable for this matchup, which would certainly not help Miami’s struggling offense. His status is something to keep our eyes on.

I like Cleveland to continue its against-the-spread dominance in this one even if Butler is available for Miami. I would play the spread to 6.5.

FanDuel has the Cavs at -4.5, so we’d be playing the alternate spread here. This gives us more attractive plus-money odds at +120.

A $1,000 bet on this returns the $2,200 payout. But if they don’t cover, as mentioned above, we get the $1k back in our accounts.

But bonus bets aren’t hard cash. They can only be used to bet with; let’s take a closer look.

Using Bonus Bets on Longshots

In the case of a loss, say we have our $1k in bonus bets. So once again, we want plus money to maximize returns over time.

Keeping the theme of the alternate spread alive, let’s turn to Pelicans-Nuggets at 10 p.m. ET.

The market has the point spread set at around 6.5 points. Kenny Ducey makes the case for shaving a point off in the Pelicans’ favor:

There are too many variables here for me to get interested in Denver. The line is on the move towards the Pelicans, and I’d continue to follow the money until the number gets inside of 5.5 points.

I’d expect a better game out of McCollum this time around, given he’s averaged 24.8 points since Williamson was injured and with the Nuggets’ struggles against opposing point guards. The likelihood of a big night increases if Murray misses this one, too.

Denver has gotten abused on the glass over the last eight games, ranking 18th in the NBA, and it also was taken to school by New Orleans down low the last time these sides met.

The combination of a big McCollum night, ownership of the paint and the potential absence of Murray has me strongly leaning towards taking the points here.

Pelicans +5.5 gets us to +102 odds, so we’ll take it. Let’s use $500 of the $1k in bonus bets on them to cover this alternate spread. Here’s how things shake out:

  • If the Pelicans cover 5.5, we see a $510 payout and the $100 stake is taken back by FanDuel.
  • If the Pelicans do not cover 5.5, we lose the $500 and profit nothing.

FanDuel Sign Up

Here’s how to actually get started at FanDuel.

  1. Use this link if you’re in Ohio, and remember, no FanDuel promo code is required (the link includes what you need!). Residents in other states can sign up for FanDuel here.
  2. Enter all your real signup information. If you try to fake your address or the address of a friend you’re visiting, FanDuel won’t be able to verify your identity and you can’t make a deposit. So even if you live in Minnesota but are in Ohio, use your Minnesota address.
  3. Deposit using a bank account, credit card, or PayPal (minimum $10)
  4. Make your first bet of $5 or more to claim the FanDuel promotional offer

Also, use the checklist below to ensure you’re eligible before signing up.

  • New users must be 21+
  • You must be in Ohio (or another legal betting state). You don’t have to live there, but you must enter all your accurate personal details so FanDuel can verify your identity.
  • Access to valid deposit method (credit/debit card, bank account, or other accepted medium)

Must be 21+ and present in OH. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. A Problem Gambling Helpline is available 24/7 at 1-800-589-9966 or texting 4HOPE to 741741.

NHL Odds, Preview, Expert Prediction: Kings vs. Hurricanes (January 31)

nhl-odds-preview-prediction-kings-vs-hurricanes-january-31

Kings vs. Hurricanes Odds

Kings Odds +168
Hurricanes Odds -205
Over/Under 6 (-105/-115)
Time 7 p.m. ET
TV NHL Network
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

Still at work when most NHL teams are on their All-Star Break vacations, the Los Angeles Kings and Carolina Hurricanes will meet up in Raleigh on Tuesday as one of three games on the slate.

The Kings are wrapping up a long eastern road trip, where they’ve gone 3-2-0 so far. The Hurricanes are on a five-game winning streak and coming off a satisfying 4-1 takedown of the league-leading Boston Bruins last Sunday.

Here’s the latest on both teams, and your best bet for Tuesday’s contest.

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Los Angeles Kings

With a recent swoon by the Vegas Golden Knights, the standings in the Pacific Division are getting tight. Just three points separate first-place Seattle (63 pts) from fourth-place Edmonton (60 pts). The Kings sit third with 62, but will have played three more games than the Oilers after Tuesday night.

After a surprising playoff appearance last season, the Kings have quietly stayed in the mix this year — with a big nod to journeyman goaltender Pheonix Copley, who has carried the load in net for the better part of the last two months.

Copley is now 15-3-0, with 1.1 goals saved above expected, and got the night off when the Kings dropped a 5-2 decision to the Tampa Bay Lighting on Saturday. He should slot back in for his team’s last game before the All-Star Break.

The Kings play a well-structured game, controlling 52.23% of expected goals at 5-on-5. Their power play can hurt opponents, but is just 2-for-13 on this road trip. But Copley’s 2.82 goals-against average gives Los Angeles a chance to win nearly every night.

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Carolina Hurricanes

Riding a five-game winning streak, the Hurricanes are currently the hottest team in the league. They’re second overall in the NHL standings, nine points behind league-leading Boston, but dished out a 4-1 smackdown on the Bruins in their last game on Sunday.

The Hurricanes look elite this season from almost any angle. They control 59.78% of expected goals at 5-on-5, more than four percent better than any other team.

They’ve got three solid goaltenders in the fold — currently running with Antti Raanta and Frederik Andersen, who’s 5-0-0 since returning from injury in mid-January and hasn’t given up more than two goals in a game so far in 2023.

The Canes may not be as offensively dangerous as you’d like from a top team, but they make up for it with their smart play and timely scoring.

And a testament to Carolina’s team play: the last four wins have come without arguably its most important defenseman, Jaccob Slavin. He’s listed as day-to-day with a lower-body injury, but the Canes have managed well with Dylan Coghlan playing a regular role.

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Kings vs. Hurricanes Pick

The Kings will wrap up a six-game, 12-day road trip on Tuesday that took them from the west coast to Nashville, Chicago and Philadelphia before veering down south. The team has showed impressive resilience, avoiding injury and faring relatively well, especially when Copley’s in net. But will the siren song of the impending 10 days off prove to be a distraction?

The Canes face a different mental challenge — pressing on through a busy part of their schedule that sees them playing five games in eight nights, with one more to come on Wednesday. They may also be poised for a potential letdown following their big win over Boston.

Certainly, the Hurricanes have the edge on paper, and they earned the 4-2 win when they visited Los Angeles back in December. It makes sense for them to be strong favorites, but there’s enough potential variability in this situation that the road dogs could cause an upset — especially if Slavin is missing once again. Just look back at Carolina’s last loss — a 4-3 home-ice shootout defeat at the hands of the Vancouver Canucks on Jan. 15.

If you’re feeling bold, back the Kings on the moneyline at a juicy +175 on DraftKings. If you’re looking for a safer bet, consider the under as both these well-disciplined sides daydream about their All-Star Break vacations.

Pick: Under 6 (-130 or Better)

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Tom Brady Next Team Odds: 49ers New Betting Favorites with Brock Purdy Injury

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Tom Brady Next Team Odds 

Team Odds
49ers +150
Raiders +175
Buccaneers +250
Dolphins +750
Patriots +1200
Titans +1400
Jets +1600
Panthers +2000
Commanders +2000
Lions +2200
Seahawks +2500
Giants +2500
Colts +2500
Saints +2500
Ravens +3500
Steelers +4000
Vikings +5000
Cowboys +6500
Rams +7500
Falcons +7500
Packers +10000
Texans +10000
Cardinals +10000
Broncos +12000
Eagles +15000
Bears +15000
Chiefs +20000
Browns +20000
Bills +20000
Chargers +20000
Jaguars +20000
Bengals +20000

*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of Jan. 31. Ready to place your bets? Check out the best DraftKings promo codes here!

The 2023 quarterback carousel will be bananas.

Tom Brady is among the names on the market, and his next-team odds were previously led by the Las Vegas Raiders. That all changed Tuesday.

Brady, who grew up in San Mateo, California, and is set to become a free agent in March, has a new link to the San Francisco 49ers.

The franchise now paces the pack for Brady’s services, especially after Brock Purdy’s UCL tear that will sideline the rookie for an extended period of time.

And Brady’s not the only California native in the mix to take snaps for the 49ers in 2023.

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Tom Brady to the 49ers: +150

Jimmy Garoppolo’s likely gone, Trey Lance is off injury, and Purdy’s on the shelf.

One of the most talented rosters in football just needs a quarterback. Is head coach Kyle Shanahan even allowed to have one?

The 49ers got a good look at Brady when the Bucs and Niners met in the Bay back in Week 14. San Francisco mopped up TB12 and Tampa, 35-7.

Despite the quarterback issues, San Francisco was the fourth-best bet in football, going 13-7 against the spread (65%).

Tom Brady to the Raiders: +175

The Raiders are another quarterback-needy franchise well-suited for Brady’s services.

Vegas closed the book on nine-year veteran Derek Carr, paving the way for another signal caller to take the reins.

Brady notably spent the bulk of his career with Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels, who was on the Patriots’ dynastic coaching staff.

The good news: There’s plenty of talent in the skill corps.

The bad news: The Raiders offensive line isn’t particularly attractive for a 45-year-old pocket quarterback.

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Virginia Tech vs Miami Odds, Picks: Fade the Canes?

college-basketball-odds-picks-prediction-virginia-tech-hokies-vs-miami-hurricanes-tuesday-january-31

Virginia Tech vs Miami Odds

Tuesday, Jan. 31
7 p.m. ET
ESPNU
Virginia Tech Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+3.5
-102
141.5
-114o / -106u
+146
Miami Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-3.5
-120
141.5
-114o / -106u
-178
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

Two of the best offensive teams in the ACC will face off on Tuesday night in Coral Gables, Fla., when the Miami Hurricanes host the Virginia Tech Hokies.

Just like a year ago, Virginia Tech has gotten off to a slow start to conference play and has been on the wrong end of a lot of close games. The Hokies rallied last season, ultimately winning the ACC Tournament and getting into the Big Dance.

If the last two outings are any indicator, there’s reason to believe VT can once again have a strong February and play its way back into the tournament picture.

Tech beat Duke in a tight one, and then dominated Syracuse from start to finish on Saturday night.

Meanwhile, Miami heads home after a three-game road trip. The Canes finished 1-2 in that stretch, narrowly losing to both Duke and Pittsburgh.

The Pitt game in particular was one that the Hurricanes really let slip away.

Jim Larranaga’s team will be in bounceback mode, which has been a friendly place for it all year. Miami has yet to drop two games in a row at any point this season.

Will that trend continue, or can Virginia Tech move its winning streak to three? Let’s discuss.

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Virginia Tech Hokies

Hunter Cattoor’s elbow injury was a big part of the reason why Virginia Tech went on a seven-game skid in January.

The veteran sharpshooter is back healthy, and his presence has certainly been felt in the last two wins.

Cattoor hit five threes against Duke and followed that up with six in the Syracuse game.

In addition to his shooting prowess, the senior gives the Hokies a leadership presence on the floor, and he is always in the right spot defensively.

Wright State transfer Grant Basile continues to give VT some scoring and defense on the inside, and very few bigs are more seasoned than Justyn Mutts.

Virginia Tech is not an elite defensive team due to overall personnel, but has the potential to be a very efficient offensive unit. The passing and ball movement has been on full display over the last week.

Miami can really score it, so that same level of efficiency will be needed to outpace the Hurricanes in this one.

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Miami Hurricanes

A main reason why Miami hasn’t lost consecutive games all season? You’d be hard-pressed to find many backcourts in America better than the duo of Isaiah Wong and Nijel Pack.

Both are experienced, and can each score it at all three levels. It took Pack a bit of time to sync with Larranaga’s offensive style coming over from Kansas State, but he has been really efficient in recent weeks.

Sophomore Norchad Omier gives the Hurricanes an athletic forward who can do a little bit of everything on both ends.

The weakness of this Miami group lies on the defensive end. The Canes still rank outside the top 100 in adjDE, which is cause for concern against a Virginia Tech team that has shooters galore.

Miami also gives up a high percentage of offensive rebounds, which is another area that could make it vulnerable against a pretty athletic Hokie team.

If the Hurricanes want to make another deep run come March, they must commit to the defensive end.

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Virginia Tech vs. Miami Betting Pick

Both offenses have the advantage in this matchup, so I certainly would not be against a play on the over in this one. That said, with a relatively high total of 144, I think the safer bet is on Virginia Tech.

Mike Young’s team understands it has to be close to perfect the rest of the way as a result of the seven-game losing streak, so I think you’ll see another focused effort from the Hokies in this one.

Virginia Tech has looked like a different team in its last two outings, and should be able to continue that level of offensive efficiency against a mediocre Miami defense.

Miami’s home court advantage is one of the least intimidating in the ACC, and Virginia Tech has been a pretty good road team in recent years.

I think the Hokies have a great chance of winning this game outright, so I will gladly back Tech catching the points.

Pick: Virginia Tech +3 or Better

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Lakers vs. Knicks Odds: Expert Prediction on Tuesday NBA Spread

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NBA Odds: Lakers vs. Knicks

Lakers Odds +1.5
Knicks Odds -1.5
Over/Under 232
Date Tuesday, January 31
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
Channel TNT

*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Tuesday. Ready to place your bets? Check out the newest, best FanDuel promo codes here!

The New York Knicks are priced as short betting favorites against the Los Angeles Lakers alongside the second-highest over/under on Tuesday’s NBA odds.

LeBron James will suit up tonight, and the betting markets have taken notice.

Experts —  including sharp action we log via our NBA public betting data and top bettors in our app — evidently spot a big prediction against the spread.

Lakers vs. Knicks odds have been booming in PRO Report all Tuesday morning. It’s the most-bet game — by a lot — and it’s backed by experts.

New York is one of only 10 NBA teams profitable against the spread this season (26-23-1, 53.1%). Los Angeles, meanwhile, is just 24-26 ATS (48%).

Tonight’s expert prediction might surprise you.

Lakers vs. Knicks Prediction

There’s nothing quite like a pros vs. joes matchup in the betting markets. We’ve noticed public tickets are piling up on one team to cover tonight.

The big money and experts, however, are leaning the other way.

PRO Report suggests betting on the Los Angeles Lakers plus the points tonight.

Among Action Network’s five expert PRO signals, three match on the Lakers to cover tonight.

LeBron and the Lakers are attracting just 42% of the tickets against the spread Tuesday. However, the road team comprises the bulk of money – about 85% of the coin is taking the points.

Sharp Action and Big Money alerts sounded, and the former signal was a strong move.

To top it off, a top NBA expert in our app is also betting the Lakers.

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College Basketball Odds, Pick for Fresno State vs. Wyoming: Best Angle to Late-Night Game

college basketball-odds-picks-wyoming vs fresno state-jan 31

Fresno State vs. Wyoming Odds

Fresno State Odds +4.5
Wyoming Odds -4.5
Over/Under 127.5
Date Tuesday, Jan. 31
Time 10 p.m. ET
How to Watch FS1

*Odds via PointsBet as of Tuesday at 1:15 ET

Fresno State and Wyoming will clash in one of the late-night college basketball games of the evening,

The Bulldogs and Cowboys have not had inspiring seasons, to say the least. The former is 7-13 on the season, while the latter is 6-14. Both of those records are disappointing for teams that returned a significant amount of talent heading into the season.

Nonetheless, this game serves as one of the nightcaps to the evening, and sharp bettors are getting involved in the contest.

Read on to see where Action Network’s college basketball PRO Report is seeing value on this game.

Fresno State vs. Wyoming PRO Report Pick

Odds and betting data updated as of 1:15 ET

The best play to make on this game, according to sharp bettors, is not one that resonates with the majority of the public.

Fresno State is tracking just 19% of the betting tickets and 31% of the handle, but the Bulldogs have received more wagers from respected bettors.

At the moment, the best line on the market comes at PointsBet, which has +4.5 at -105. It’s important to always get the best price available to ensure long-term profitability.

PRO Pick: Fresno State +4.5 (-105 via PointsBet)

NBA Odds, Expert Picks, Predictions: Best Bets For Pelicans vs. Nuggets (January 31)

nba-betting-odds-expert-picks-predictions-pelicans vs nuggets january 31-2023

Tuesday night’s NBA schedule features a five-game NBA slate, including a national TV doubleheader on TNT.

The first of those two games — Lakers vs. Knicks, 7:30 p.m. ET — will mark LeBron James’ first game in Madison Square Garden (assuming he plays tonight) in three years as he continues his chase of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s for the NBA’s all-time scoring record. The second game — Pelicans vs. Nuggets 10 p.m. ET — is Nikola Jokic’s first game back home after losing back-to-back games on the road to two Eastern Conference contenders.

Our betting analysts are all over the late game with a pick on the spread, the total and a player prop bet. You can find their best bets for Pelicans vs. Nuggets below.

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NBA Odds & Picks

Click on a pick to skip ahead
Pelicans vs. Nuggets Spread
Pelicans vs. Nuggets Total
Pelicans vs. Nuggets Player Prop

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Denver Nuggets

Pick
Nuggets -6.5
Book
FanDuel
Tipoff
10 p.m. ET
TV
TNT

Matt Moore: There’s a lot of betting analysis is focused on when to fade streaks. If a team has been playing badly, it’s a buy low spot. But you need to see the team actually stabilize toward a better “correct” number before that happens.

That is not the case with the Pelicans without Zion Williamson. The Pels have lost eight in a row and 13 of the last 16, and failed to cover in 12 of the last 16.

Don’t try and catch a falling knife.

Denver at home has been dynamite this season and Denver is 3-2 ATS in late start games since they turned their season around after the December 6 loss to the Mavericks at home.

Plus, Denver is coming off a two-game losing streak. The Nuggets are 53% ATS off a loss with Nikola Jokic in the lineup and 8-5 ATS off a losing streak.

I’ll lay the points with the Nuggets; things don’t get better for the Pelicans. Not yet.


» Return to the table of contents «


New Orleans Pelicans vs. Denver Nuggets

Pick
Under 232
Book
PointsBet

Andrew O’Connor-Watts: These teams have faced each other twice already this season and both games went under the total. In their most recent meeting, neither team cracked 100 points.

I don’t expect this game to be quite that low-scoring, but I think the current total is too high. The Pelicans offense has been stagnant lately. In their last five games, they have an Offensive Rating of 103.2, according to NBA Advanced Stats — last in the league.

On the other side, the Nuggets have shown improved defensive capabilities over the last month. At the beginning of January, the Nuggets ranked 25th in Adjusted Defensive Rating (115.2), according to Dunks and Threes — a stat that factors in the opponent’s Offensive Rating in its calculation. Denver currently sits at 17th (114.1). Meanwhile, the Pelicans have been a consistently great defensive team all season at sixth (112.2).

One cause for concern could be Denver’s historic offense. The Nuggets have an Adjusted Offensive Rating of 117.4 — tied with the Celtics for second in the league — and trails only the Kings this season and the 2020-21 Nets as the best offense in the history of the league.

But in a historic offensive year, that is already factored into the current number and Denver plays at a slow enough pace that I’m not concerned. They rank just 21st in Pace (98.6) and 22nd in Offensive Possession Length (14.8). The under has already taken some steam, so shop around for the best number down to 230.5.


» Return to the table of contents «


New Orleans Pelicans vs. Denver Nuggets

Pick
CJ McCollum Over 22.5 points
Book
FanDuel

Kenny Ducey: Ever since Zion Williamson was injured at the start of the month, it’s been the CJ McCollum show in New Orleans. In 12 games without the star big, he’s averaged 24.8 points per game and gone cashed this over on eight of 12 occasions, including the last two games.

With Williamson off the floor this season, McCollum has seen a Usage Rate bump of 3.3% and has scored 2.7 more points per 36 minutes. Now, he gets to face a defense that is allowing 26.6 points per game to opposing point guards, which is the second-worst mark in the league.

McCollum went 0-for-8 from three against the Nuggets last week and turned the ball over six times, yet still missed this total by three. He should fare better this time around given what we’ve laid out above, and it’s also worth noting that Jamal Murray made a surprise appearance on the injury report and could miss this one. That’d make me all the more confident in McCollum scoring 23 or more.


» Return to the table of contents «


2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Van Rooyen, Suh Among Course Fits

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The PGA TOUR heads to beautiful Pebble Beach this week to play the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

The tournament will once again feature a three-course rotation utilizing Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Course and Monterey Peninsula Country Club. The golfers will play one round at each course before a 54-hole cut with the final round being played at Pebble Beach.

The field this week is made up of 156 players, including Patrick Cantlay, Matt Fitzpatrick, Jordan Spieth and Viktor Hovland.

Pebble Beach Golf Links is a par-72 measuring 6,828 yards and featuring Poa Annua greens. Spyglass Hill is a par-72 measuring 7,035 yards, and Monterey Peninsula is a par-71 measuring 6,958 yards.

We’ve backtested past tournaments at Pebble Beach Golf Links to see which metrics matter most this week.

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Past Winners at The Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am

  • 2022: Tom Hoge (-19)
  • 2021: Daniel Berger (-18)
  • 2020: Nick Taylor (-19)
  • 2019: Phil Mickelson (-19)
  • 2018: Ted Potter Jr. (-17)
  • 2017: Jordan Spieth (-19)
  • 2016: Vaughn Taylor (-17)
  • 2015: Brandt Snedeker (-22)

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Pebble Beach Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Unsurprisingly, approach grades out as the most important statistic for Pebble Beach.

On a shorter course, approaches to the green are understandably more indicative of success than smashing it off of the tee. With very small greens, Pebble Beach is undoubtedly a second-shot golf course.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach in Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+33.6) (+2000)
  2. Russell Knox (+23.5) (+6500)
  3. James Hahn (+18.3) (+25000)
  4. Ben Griffin (+17.0) (+6500)
  5. Erik Van Rooyen (+16.1) (+7500)

SG: Total on Par 72s Under 7200 Yards

Pebble Beach is uniquely short for a par-72. This statistic will give a glimpse as to what kind of golfers play well on these types of courses.

SG: Total in Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+43.4) (+2000)
  2. Lanto Griffin (+41.8) (+7500) 
  3. Webb Simpson (+40.0) (+10000)
  4. Justin Rose (+33.5) (+2800)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+32.3) (+900)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa and Fast)

With the course being so short, one of its main defenses is its fast Poa Annua greens. Strokes Gained: Putting has historically been extremely important here, as evidenced by former winners (Spieth, Mickelson, Snedeker).

SG: Putting (POA and Fast) Last 24 Rounds:

  1. Jonas Blixt (+48.5) (+30000)
  2. Kevin Kisner (+41.2) (+8000)
  3. Maverick McNealy (+38.2) (+2200)
  4. Denny McCarthy (+36.2) (+3500)
  5. J.B. Holmes (+35.5) (+30000)

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Course History

Pebble Beach has historically been a specialist’s course.  Every winner of this event since 2006 has a top-21 finish in a previous appearance. 

Total Strokes Gained (Pebble Beach+ Spyglass Hill+ Monterey Peninsula): Gained per Round in Past 24 Rounds

  1. Kevin Streelman (+48.5) (+9000)
  2. Jordan Spieth (+41.2) (+900)
  3. Nick Taylor (+38.2) (+6000)
  4. Maverick McNealy (+36.2) (+2200)
  5. Scott Stallings (+35.5) (+6500)

Birdies or Better Gained

With the winning score likely to get close to 20-under par, making birdies is a must this week.

B.O.B. Gained: Past 24 Rounds

  1. Viktor Hovland (+18.4) (+1100)
  2. Ben Griffin (+18.1) (+6500)
  3. Seamus Power (+16.9) (+2200)
  4. Matthew NeSmith (+16.6) (+8000)
  5. Maverick McNealy (+15.3) (+2200)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (30.4%), Birdie or Better Gained (18.6%), SG: Putting Poa and Fast (17.8%), Course History (17%) and Short Par 72 (16.5%).

  1. Viktor Hovland (+1100)
  2. Ben Griffin (+6500)
  3. Seamus Power (+2200)
  4. Matthew NeSmith (+8000)
  5. Maverick McNealy (+2200)
  6. Joel Dahmen (+4000)
  7. Alex Smalley (+5000)
  8. Will Gordon (+7500)
  9. Matthias Schmid (+12500)
  10. Thomas Detry (+5000)
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2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks


Erik Van Rooyen +9000 (DraftKings)

Erik Van Rooyen was excellent in his most recent start at The American Express. He gained 8.2 strokes from tee to green in his two rounds at the Stadium Course and shot an impressive Sunday round of 62, which was tied for the low round of the day. The round propelled him to a sixth-place finish that I believe he can build off of this week at Pebble Beach.

Last season, EVR’s two best finishes came at The PLAYERS Championship and the RBC Heritage, which are two relatively short courses. His top 10 at The American Express also fits the bill as a shorter course that he’s had success on. The trio of courses at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am are all very short. The best defense at Pebble Beach is wind, and Van Rooyen excels in windy conditions. The 32-year-old gains almost a stroke on the field per round in extremely windy conditions.

Van Rooyen has only won the Barracuda Championship in August of 2021, but I believe he has the talent to take another step forward on the PGA TOUR this season.

Beau Hossler +8500 (FanDuel)

While we’re on the topic of former amateur superstars from California, Beau Hossler also fits the bill. The 27-year-old grew up in Rancho Santa Margarita, California, which is only a few hours away from Pebble Beach.

Hossler finished in solo third place at last year’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and gained 4.1 strokes putting in two rounds at Pebble Beach Golf Links. While he struggles to keep up with the best players in the world at longer tracks, he can catch a hot putter in this event. He should be comfortable on the greens and has had a few warmup events as he debuted his season at The American Express and played in last week’s Farmers Insurance Open.

Last year, Hossler had to contend with Jordan Spieth and Tom Hoge at the top of the leaderboard. In one of the weakest fields we will see all year, there’s a chance the few big names don’t rise to the top this year, and Hossler has a better shot to win if he gets in contention.

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Justin Suh +10000 (FanDuel)

Not too long ago, Justin Suh was sitting at a press conference beside Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland and Matthew Wolff. The group was pegged as the next crop of stars ascending to the PGA TOUR, but Suh’s path (along with Wolff’s, but for different reasons) has diverged from the others.

While Morikawa and Hovland have already become stars, Suh has just found himself on TOUR three years after graduating from USC.

Speaking of Southern California, Suh is plenty familiar with West Coast golf. The 23-year-old was a four-time All-American and eight-time winner as a Trojan. He’s had limited success thus far on the PGA TOUR, but what success he’s had has been on the West Coast.

In 2020, which was a season filled with adversity, Suh finished eighth at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas. He’s also begun to play some decent golf during the current California swing. The results have been encouraging but unspectacular. He gained 2.2 strokes putting at The American Express and another 4.2 at last week’s Farmers Insurance Open, where his finished in 20th in the strong field. Historically, he’s loved putting on West Coast Poa Annua greens.

A weaker field event on a short track is a good spot to buy low on Suh and hope he can make strides toward fulfilling his potential.

Troy Merritt +11000 (DraftKings)

Troy Merritt is another golfer who was in contention at last year’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He finished in fourth place and gained 4.5 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting. Merritt has also played well at Pebble Beach in the past and has finishes of 16th, 25th and eighth in his last three trips prior to last season’s effort.

Merritt is the type of player who can really benefit from playing on a shorter course and in a weaker field. He has two PGA TOUR victories at the Quicken Loans National (-18) and the Barbasol Championship (-23) which are both events with scores in the range that the expected winning score will be this week.

In his past 24 rounds at the three courses in this week’s rotation, Merritt ranks sixth in the field in Strokes Gained: Total, gaining 1.7 per round. He also ranks seventh in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting on Poa Annua green surfaces.

The 37-year-old can occasionally have a ceiling week with his irons, which coupled with his ability to get hot with the putter makes him a real contender this week.

Scott Piercy +13000 (DraftKings)

Scott Piercy was in contention on the PGA TOUR as recently as July at the 3M Open before ultimately falling apart down the stretch. The combination of a red-hot Tony Finau and a Sunday 76 was too much to overcome for Piercy, but the taste of contention after a few down years could prove useful if he gets in the mix this week.

Piercy has a strong history at Pebble Beach with three top-20 finishes in his past five trips to the event. The 44-year-old flashed some exquisite iron play at last week’s Farmers Insurance Open, gaining 5.2 strokes on the field in an event that featured a much stronger field than he will be up against this week. The four-time PGA TOUR winner is past his prime, but this is an event where older players have come through with victories in the recent past. 

Danny Willett +18000 (FanDuel)

Although he can be wildly inconsistent, Danny Willett is a player that offers win equity. The Englishman has eight professional victories to his name, including a major championship win at the 2016 Masters. At triple-digit odds in one of the weakest field events in the PGA TOUR season, he offers incredible value in the win-only market. 

In addition to his successful DP World Tour career, Willett almost won over the swing season at the Fortinet Championship. A bad three-putt on the 18th hole cost him the event, but the fact that he got deep into contention in the state of California can only be a good thing for this week’s event at Pebble Beach.

He also played in the 2019 U.S. Open and finished in 12th place gaining 5.0 strokes from tee to green and 3.8 strokes putting. Another aspect that may be overlooked is Willett’s success at pro-ams in the past. The 35-year-old won the 2021 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, which is a pro-am with a three-course rotation similar to what he’ll face this week.

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Super Bowl Player Props: Expert Explains Dallas Goedert Touchdown Bet

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The embers of the Conference Championship games have yet to be fully extinguished, but I’ve already found my best bet for Super Bowl 57: Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert to score a touchdown. His Anytime Touchdown odds are currently +200 at FanDuel.

Although the fifth-year TE has yet to emerge into the top tier of his position (among the likes Travis Kelces, George Kittles or Mark Andrews of the world), Goedert might finally be able to showcase why he’s on that same level. Especially since Jalen Hurts became his quarterback.

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Stat Breakdown

Over the last two seasons, Hurts has looked for Goedert early and often, as evidenced by the TE’s combined 83 first-down catches since the start of the 2021-22 season. To put that in perspective, that’s more than his first three seasons combined (76). Hell, in 2022, he managed 40 first downs and 421 yards after catch in only 12 games. Those metrics were easily on pace to surpass WRs A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith had he played a full slate.

Matchup vs. Eagles

One of the main reasons why we want to bet Goedert in this game to score a touchdown is the matchup is the Kansas City Chiefs‘ defensive vulnerabilities.

Sure, the Chiefs offense may have the edge with Patrick Mahomes, but the defense could be the reason this game is over quickly. K.C.’s secondary has been getting burned for most of the season and playoffs, specifically to slot receivers and tight ends.

During the 2022 season, the Chiefs ranked 31st in touchdowns allowed to the slot (this includes WR, TE and RB when running routes over the middle).

Since coming off their bye week in Week 10, the Chiefs had given up at least one TD in the slot in all but two games. The two games they didn’t allow one were in Week 13 and the AFC Championship game, both to the Cincinnati Bengals.

As for tight ends, it’s not like the Chiefs were world-beaters stopping the position anyway. KC allowed nine touchdowns to TE this past season, which was seventh most in the NFL.

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Betting Odds

The Anytime Touchdown Scorer odds might be the most important factor for why I’ve bet on Goedert to score a touchdown in Super Bowl 57. I tracked him at the Action App at +220, which was tied for his season-high for Anytime TD odds at DraftKings. The last time he was +220 was in Week 10 vs Washington, a game he finished with three catches and a touchdown despite getting hurt in the second half.

It’s also worth mentioning that despite playing in separate conferences, these two teams have faced each other fairly recently with a lot of the same personnel.

Back in Week 4 of the 2021 season, the Chiefs went into Lincoln Financial Field and beat the Eagles 42-30. Tyreek Hill was the star who finished with three touchdowns, but Goedert finished with five catches and a touchdown. For reference, he was +210 to score a touchdown in that game.

Goedert has since dropped down to +200 at FanDuel, which I’d still bet but is my cutoff price for projected value. However, as we get closer to the Super Bowl and more money pours in on player props, the TD value could continue to slip.

If you’re on the fence, tread carefully on waiting till closer to game day before locking it in as it may drop to +190 at this pace.

Pick: Dallas Goedert ATD (+200)

What is QuickSlip?

QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.


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Pelicans vs. Nuggets Odds, Pick, Prediction | NBA Betting Preview (January 31)

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Pelicans vs. Nuggets Odds

Pelicans Odds +7
Nuggets Odds -7
Over/Under 232
Time 10 p.m. ET
TV TNT
Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The New Orleans Pelicans continue to struggle in the aftermath of Zion Williamson’s injury, coming into Tuesday night’s tilt with the Denver Nuggets on an eight-game losing streak.

Luckily for New Orleans, Denver is dealing with some injury issues of its own and has lost three of its last four.

Let’s dive into how this game should go in our preview and predictions for Pelicans vs. Nuggets.

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New Orleans Pelicans

It’s been a grim month for New Orleans, and even the spread has been hard to achieve amidst its eight game skid; the Pelicans are now just 2-6 against the spread on that run. One of the games that New Orleans managed to cover in was an excruciating one-point loss to the Nuggets last Tuesday.

Surprisingly, that one was hanging in the balance despite the fact that CJ McCollum was off his game that evening. He turned the ball over six times and went just 9-for-22 from the field, missing all eight of his three-point attempts. It was Jose Alvarado who came through off the bench with 17, and in general the Pelicans won the war of attrition on the glass. They pulled down 34.1% of available offensive rebounds and in general out-rebounded Denver 43-34.

That’s nothing new for arguably the best rebounding team in the league, though it’s been a rare occurrence of late. New Orleans is just 21st in rebounding on its eight-game slide, and while you might want to chalk that one up to the loss of Williamson, I’d be quick to point out there is just a 1.4-point difference in their Rebounding Rate with the big man on the floor.

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Denver Nuggets

We waited and waited for the Nuggets to release their injury report on Monday evening, and when it finally came out we realize why it may have taken so long. Denver is listing Jamal Murray as questionable here due to injury management for his left knee, and while we have seen that plenty of times this season we haven’t seen it in a spot like this.

With Murray coming back this season after a long layoff due to a torn ACL, it hasn’t been surprising to see the Nuggets rest him on back-to-backs. The Nuggets didn’t play on Monday, however, and they next play on Thursday, so this is rather strange.

Missing Murray would obviously be massive for Denver. He had 25 points in 40 minutes the last time the Nuggets played the Pelicans, and he helped defend McCollum, who was the best player on the floor for New Orleans.

The Nuggets already rank second-worst in points per game allowed to opposing point guards, so this could be a difficult spot for Denver.

Pelicans-Nuggets Pick

There are too many variables here for me to get interested in Denver. The line is on the move towards the Pelicans, and I’d continue to follow the money until the number gets inside of 5.5 points.

I’d expect a better game out of McCollum this time around, given he’s averaged 24.8 points since Williamson was injured and with the Nuggets’ struggles against opposing point guards. The likelihood of a big night increases if Murray misses this one, too.

Denver has gotten abused on the glass over the last eight games, ranking 18th in the NBA, and it also was taken to school by New Orleans down low the last time these sides met.

The combination of a big McCollum night, ownership of the paint and the potential absence of Murray has me strongly leaning towards taking the points here.

Pick: Pelicans +7 (Down to +5.5)

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Super Bowl Betting Trends: How Public Is Betting Chiefs vs. Eagles Spread & Over/Under

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Super Bowl odds have been open for a few days, allowing bettors to get their early spread and over/action down for Chiefs vs. Eagles.

The spread has received the lion’s share of attention thus far as Philadelphia flipped from a 2-point underdog to a 2-point favorite.

But when it comes to Super Bowl betting trends, the over/under has been even more one-sided than the spread.

With this in mind, let’s take a look at the latest Super Bowl betting trends, including how the public is betting the Chiefs vs. Eagles spread and over/under.

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Super Bowl Betting Trends

With the spread flipping the Eagles from short underdogs to short favorites, it shouldn’t be all that surprising to see the public backing Philly based on the latest Super Bowl betting trends.

The Action Network’s NFL public betting data is showing that the Eagles have garnered 63% of the spread tickets to this point. However, the real money wagered is a bit more balanced with Philadelphia landing 58% of the loot.

Bettors are also lining up on the Chiefs vs. Eagles under.

Sixty-three percent of bets are banking on a lower-scoring game, and that percentage of tickets accounts for an even more lopsided 74% of the money.

Interestingly, the Super Bowl total has moved very little to this point, so it’ll be interesting to see if oddsmakers are motivated to drop this number should action continue to flow on the under.

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Updated Super Bowl Odds, Line: Here Comes Chiefs Money!

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Super Bowl Odds for Chiefs vs. Eagles

Chiefs Odds +1.5 (-105)
Eagles Odds -1.5 (-115)
Over/Under 49.5 (-114o/-106u)
Date Sunday, Feb. 12
Time 6:30 p.m. ET
Channel FOX

*Odds as of Jan. 31 and via FanDuel

Super Bowl 57 will take place on Sunday, Feb. 12, 2023 with the Kansas City Chiefs meeting the Philadelphia Eagles at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz.

Super Bowl odds opened with Kansas City as a 1.5-point favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook and an over/under of 48.5, but as is usually the case, bettors were quick to take early positions on this matchup.

Below we detail the latest Super Bowl odds movement from FanDuel, including how NFL betting trends are moving the Chiefs vs. Eagles spread and over/under.

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Super Bowl Odds Updates

Jan 31 at 12:15 p.m. ET: Early Super Bowl action had been all Eagles to this point, however, Chiefs money hit the market late Tuesday morning.

While some shops are still at Kansas City +2, the consensus line has dipped to +1.5 as the majority of sportsbooks are now at that number.

Jan 31 at 7:22 a.m. ET: There’s very little to report on the Super Bowl spread as the consensus line still sits at Eagles -2, although PointsBet has joined FanDuel at -1.5.

On the other hand, the total dipped a half-point early Tuesday at shops like DraftKings that were previously at 50.

Jan 30 at 12:43 p.m. ET: It’s been a quiet day so far on Monday with very little Super Bowl odds movement.

According to the Action Network’s NFL public betting data, 65% of the spread tickets are on the Eagles, while the under has landed 66% of the action on the total.

Jan. 30 at 7:32 a.m. ET: As of Monday morning the Super Bowl spread has settled at -2, though this line does vary.

In addition, the Chiefs vs. Eagles over/under is sitting at a consensus line of 49.5, though shops like DraftKings and Circa Sports have already pushed their prices up to 50.

Jan. 29 at 10:25 p.m. ET: In just four minutes, Super Bowl odds dipped back down to Eagles -1.5 at FanDuel, though the majority of sportsbooks are holding strong at -2.

Jan. 29 at 10:21 p.m. ET: Five minutes later the Super Bowl spread pushed to Eagles -2 at most shops across the market.

Jan. 29 at 10:16 p.m. ET: With early Eagles money flowing on the spread, Super Bowl odds at FanDuel flipped from Philadelphia +1.5 to -1.5.

Jan. 29 at 10:07 p.m. ET: Just three minutes after Super Bowl odds opened at FanDuel, the Chiefs vs. Eagles over/under moved from 48.5 to 49.5.

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In-Person Sports Betting Is Officially Live in Massachusetts

In-person Massachusetts sports betting is live

In-person Massachusetts sports betting officially launched at 10 a.m. on Tuesday.

Massachusetts is the second state to launch sports betting this year after Ohio went live with online and retail sports betting on New Year’s Day. While an official go-live date for online sports betting has yet to be announced, all indications are that mobile wagering will launch in Massachusetts sometime before March Madness.

Bay State bettors will be able to place their in-person wagers at three different casinos after the Massachusetts Gaming Commission awarded operation certificates to them on Monday.

Massachusetts Casino Sports Betting Locations

 

BetMGM and MGM Springfield Casino

Address: One MGM Way, Springfield, MA 01103

Phone Number: 413-273-5000

BetMGM Sportsbook Hours of Operation: 

  • Monday-Thursday— 11 a.m.-11 p.m.
  • Friday — 11 a.m.-midnight
  • Saturday — 10 a.m.-midnight
  • Sunday — 10 a.m.-11 p.m.

State bettors can visit the MGM Springfield Casino near the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame in Springfield. This is BetMGM‘s 21st legal state and second launch this year (Ohio being the first). MGM Springfield’s sportsbook lounge offers a massive 45-foot screen, 40 TVs, 18 sports betting kiosks, eight POS terminals, two lounges, extensive seating, a bar, and a pizza counter.

Barstool Sportsbook and Plainridge Park Casino 

Address: 301 Washington St, Plainville, MA 02762

Phone Number: 508-576-4500

Barstool Sportsbook Hours of Operation: Plainridge Park Casino has  a ribbon today starting at 1 PM ET. Barstool Sportsbook hours have yet to be released.

Like BetMGM, Barstool Sportsbook is batting 2-for-2 this year by launching in Ohio and Massachusetts. This launch marks Barstool’s 15th live state. As far as sportsbook offerings, bettors have access to 18 kiosks and five betting windows. Since Barstool is still under investigation, Plainridge Park will take the reins of Barstool’s sportsbook lounge.  Plainridge Park Casino less than an hour southwest of Boston in Plainville and 30-minutes north of Providence, Rhode Island.

WynnBET Sportsbook and Encore Boston Harbor

Address: 1 Broadway, Everett, MA 02149

Hours of Operation: 

  • Monday-Sunday: 9 a.m.-midnight (betting windows)
  • Monday-Sunday: 9 a.m.-2 a.m. (venue area)

Phone Number: 857-770-7000

The debut of WynnBET Sportsbook in Massachusetts comes over a year after their last launch in New York. This is WynnBET’s 10th live state as the Vegas-based operator becomes the seventh sportsbook to launch in at least 10 states in the U.S. This is a major launch for WynnBET because they are the first sportsbook to launch in Boston. WynnBET’s sportsbook lounge has more than 70 TVs, an 123-foot video wall, over 100 kiosks, 10 sports betting windows, and food and drinks from Shake Shack and Frank & Nick’s Restaurant.

Other Massachusetts Sportsbooks Launching Soon

Here are the other Massachusetts sportsbooks that are expected to be available by March.

We’ll provide updates on any new Massachusetts sports betting offers and launch dates before online betting goes live later this year.

If you or someone you know has a gambling addiction, call 800-327-5050 and visit helplinema.org or GameSenseMA.com.

Newcastle vs. Southampton League Cup Odds, Pick: Soccer Expert’s Best Bet For Second Leg

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Newcastle vs. Southampton Odds

Tuesday, Jan. 31
3 p.m. ET
ESPN+
Newcastle Odds -250
Southampton Odds +755
Draw +365
Over/Under 2.5 (-110 / -116)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) (+118 / -155)
Odds via BetRivers. Get the latest soccer odds here.

The League Cup semifinals resume on Tuesday when Newcastle United welcome Southampton to St. James Park for their second leg.

Newcastle have had a full week to prepare after a 1-0 win on the South Coast in the first leg. The Magpies were deserving of their win, which came through Joelinton’s 73rd-minute strike, although Southampton also had chances.

The Saints will be on shorter rest after seeing off Blackpool 2-1 at home in the fourth round of the FA Cup. It will be their first Tyneside visit of the season, with a league meeting in Newcastle to follow in late April.

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Newcastle Regressing But Positivity Remains

The Magpies have cooled off in attack since play resumed following the World Cup, scoring nine times in nine games across all competitions. However, there were signs a breakthrough might be coming in the first leg.

Before scoring his winner, Joelinton had an earlier goal disallowed for a slight handball. And after taking their lead, Newcastle looked more likely to score the second goal as Southampton chased the game (and eventually went down to 10 men).

Excluding the World Cup break, this will be Newcastle’s first match on seven or more days of rest since a 4-1 away win over Southampton in early November.

And despite the club’s new Saudi Arabian owners, it’s not like the Magpies have suddenly stockpiled enormous squad depth. So the extra preparation time here might be particularly valuable.

Newly signed winger Anthony Hudson won’t be eligible to make his debut here, however. He’s cup-tied from an earlier appearance for Everton.

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Southampton Showing Inverse Trend

Theoretically, the Saints should enjoy one of the better home-field advantages in England given the distance many teams travel to visit.

However, this season they’ve earned better results on their travels than at the St. Mary’s Stadium. An overall away record of 5-7-0 (W-L-D) and 3-7-0 mark in league play isn’t exactly exceptional, but it could have enough to see them rise to the middle of the table if they’d been better at home. Instead, Southampton sit last in the league.

Southampton’s FA Cup duties might have been a distraction this weekend, but they didn’t appear to require serious exertion. Their victory came despite manager Nathan Jones rotating eight starters from the squad that faced Newcastle in the first leg.

And center back Duje Caleta-Car will be able to return despite being sent off in the first leg following a second yellow-card offense. Under FA rules, that suspension was served against Blackpool.

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Newcastle vs. Southampton Pick

The challenge for Jones to save Southampton from relegation is a large one, but they have been more competitive since his arrival just before the World Cup, losing only twice by multiple goals. The latter of those came on Boxing Day.

And the potential for Newcastle to pour it on may be lessened because of the aggregate goals advantage they will enjoy from the first leg. A one-goal win or even a draw would do them fine.

Add in Southampton’s away form, and the probability that this is close is higher than the league table suggests. So, the value here is on the visitors in some fashion, even if Newcastle advance.

The best angle might be Southampton +1.5 goals on the spread at -152 odds and an implied 60.3% probability. It’s not the sexiest payout, but both teams have kept matches pretty tight of late.

If you want to be more aggressive, playing the moneyline draw at +360 odds might also be worth a shot.

Pick: Southampton +1.5 (-152 via BetRivers)

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College Basketball Odds, Pick for West Virginia vs. TCU: Does Key Injury Bring Sharp Action?

West Virginia vs. TCU Odds

West Virginia Odds +2.5
TCU Odds -2.5
Over/Under 142.5
Date Tuesday, Jan. 31
Time 9 p.m. ET
How to Watch ESPN

*Odds via BetMGM as of Tuesday at noon ET

The college basketball schedule is filled on Tuesday with a bunch of Power Five matchups and some ranked squads going at it.

In this piece, we’ll be highlighting the Big 12 matchup between West Virginia and TCU, as the Action Network’s college basketball PRO Report is highlighting a valuable side, according to three signals.

TCU will come into the game without their leading scorer, Mike Miles Jr., as the talented guard got injured over the weekend against Mississippi State.

West Virginia comes into this game having won three of its last four – an effort that has put the Mountaineers in tournament contention.

When these teams met earlier in the year, the WVU secured a nine-point win.

Who will come out on top this time? Read on for the West Virginia vs. TCU PRO Report pick.

West Virginia vs. TCU PRO Report Pick

Odds and betting data updated as of noon ET

Evidently, the loss of Miles is playing a big role in how sharp bettors are viewing this contest.

A majority of the betting tickets on the contest are on TCU – at a 57% clip to be exact – but 73% of the money is riding on West Virginia. That gives an indication that the bigger wagers – made by sharp bettors – are coming in on the Mountaineers.

Additionally, one of our top experts is on West Virginia, adding a third signal to the PRO Report that is siding with the Mountaineers.

As always, it’s important to get the best price and odds on the wagers that you place, and the best line for WVU is currently at BetMGM, which has this at +2.5 (-115).

Some books have already dropped down to +1.5.

PRO Pick: West Virginia +2.5 (-115 via BetMGM)

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LeBron James Scoring Tracker Odds: When Will LeBron Break the NBA Points Record?

LeBron James is on the cusp of etching his name into the NBA history books once again. He’s just games away from becoming the league’s career points leader and surpassing the great Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in the process.

How many points does LeBron need to pass Kareem as the NBA’s all-time leading scorer? The King is just 117 points away from breaking the scoring record entering tonight’s games.

Sportsbooks have released odds on when, where and how James will break the scoring record and of course we’re tracking all the things you can bet as he chases greatness.

Consider this your one-stop shop for all things LeBron James. This file will update daily until James reaches 38,388 points.

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LeBron James Scoring Record Odds

When Will LeBron Break the NBA Points Record? (Odds as of Jan. 31 via FanDuel)
Date Opponent Opening Odds Current Odds
Feb. 2 at Pacers +3000 +20000
Feb. 4 at Pelicans +480 +4000
Feb. 7 vs. Thunder +210 +175
Feb. 9 vs. Bucks +250 +115
Feb. 11 at Warriors +430 +240
Feb. 13 at Trail Blazers +1000 +1100
Feb. 15 vs. Pelicans +2300 +3400
Feb. 23 at Warriors +6000 +11000
Feb. 26 at Mavericks +7500 +20000
Feb. 28 at Grizzlies +7500 +20000
March 1 at Thunder +7500 +20000
Other +3400 +6000
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The Lakers began a five-game road trip with a Saturday night primetime game in Boston and are on the second night of a back-to-back set in New York City at Barclays Center and Madison Square Garden. They will carry on to Indianapolis and New Orleans afterwards, closing out the road trip within a seven-day span.

Eight of the games with odds listed are on the road, but the two-game stretch the Lakers have at home in early February (against the Thunder and Bucks) currently have the shortest odds on the board.

James is averaging 30.2 points per game this season and at that rate, he would be expected to break the record in four games, assuming he plays every game.


How Will LeBron Break The Scoring Record?

Shot Type Odds
Dunk +700
Free Throw +450
3-Point Field Goal +370
Layup +145
Other +380
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This list is pretty straightforward. The odds James breaks the record on a dunk are the juiciest, followed by free throw, 3-pointer, other and layup.

Here are FanDuel’s rules for how they will grade this bet:

Will be settled as per the play description from NBA.com. This market refers to how LeBron James will score his 38,388th Regular Season Point.

“Other” refers to all other non-listed scoring methods, such as a 2-point jump shot.

The King is having a career season in two areas of the floor. According to Basketball Reference, He’s shooting 80.5% between 0-3 feet and 45.3% from 16 feet to the 3-Point line. He ranks 21st in the NBA in total dunks (57), tied with Deandre Ayton.

According to NBA Advanced Stats, among the 50 players who have attempted the most 2-point shots this season, James has the sixth-best percentage (60.0%). Among the 50 players who have attempted the most 3-point shots, James has the worst shooting percentage (30.7%).


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Lakers Upcoming Schedule

Tuesday Jan. 31 — at Knicks, 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT
Thursday Feb. 2 — at Pacers, 7 p.m. ET on NBA League Pass
Saturday Feb. 4 — at Pelicans, 8 p.m. ET on NBA League Pass 
Tuesday Feb. 7 — vs. Thunder, 10:30 p.m. ET on NBA League Pass
Thursday Feb. 9 — vs. Pelicans, 10:30 p.m. ET on TNT

LeBron James Scoring Props & Trends

Knowing how to bet James’ point total each night is another way to get value as he gets close to the record. This season, James has gone over his point total in 23 of his 40 games.

Sportsbooks are adjusting based on different factors and it’s likely his props will be inflated as he gets closer. Here’s a look at his over/under splits in different scenarios.

LeBron Over/Unders by Point Range

  • 24.5 Points or Less: 2-0
  • 25.5-29.5 Points: 10-9
  • 30.5 Points or More: 11-8

Sportsbooks have been setting James’ points prop at or above 30 points with regularity since Dec. 30. His prop has been as high as 33.5 points this season and he has gone over that number once (37 points vs. the Trail Blazers) and under twice.

LeBron Over/Unders by Days of Rest

  • 3+ Days between games: 1-1
  • 2 Days between games: 5-4
  • 1 Day between games: 14-10
  • 0 Days between games: 3-2

James has been on the injury report all season with a sore ankle, so he’s not always a lock to play each night (not to mention, he’s 38 years old and in his 20th season).

Early in the season, James rested on the second night of a back-to-back more frequently, but after Davis’ injury, James has played in three of four back-to-back sets.

The team has found spots for him to rest — he sat out their road game in Denver on Jan. 9. Their next back-to-back set is Jan. 30 (vs. Nets) and Jan. 31 (vs. Knicks).

LeBron Over/Unders With or Without Star Teammates

With the Lakers’ top three players all healthy, James’ points prop was listed at 27 points on average and he went over his prop in 11 of those 20 games.

In the two games in which James played and Russell Westbrook was inactive, James went 1-1 on his over/under. In 19 games without Davis playing, James has gone over his points prop 12 times.

Should You Bet LeBron’s Points Prop Tonight?

Thanks to Action Network’s player prop projections, we can use data to determine if there is any significant betting value on James’ prop each night.

The Lakers’ next game is Tuesday against the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden. James averages 28.2 points per game against the Knicks at MSG

Our tool projects that James to score just under that average, which is just below his highest total across the market.

2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks, Odds: Seamus Power, More Bets

at&t pebble beach pro am-odds-picks-predictions-2023
Click arrow to expand the Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds via BetMGM
Golfer Odds
Matt Fitzpatrick +900
Jordan Spieth +1000
Viktor Hovland +1000
Maverick McNealy +2000
Seamus Power +2000
Tom Hoge +2000
Andrew Putnam +2500
Justin Rose +2800
Matt Kuchar +2800
Keith Mitchell +3000
Joel Dahmen +3300
Denny McCarthy +4000
Thomas Detry +4500
Alex Smalley +5000
Dean Burmester +5000
Scott Stallings +5000
Taylor Moore +5000
Taylor Pendrith +5000
Ben Griffin +6000
David Lipsky +6600
Kurt Kitayama +6600
Nick Taylor +6600
Robby Shelton +6600
Trey Mullinax +6600
Will Gordon +6600
Davis Riley +6600
Nick Hardy +6600
S.H. Kim +6600
Beau Hossler +8000
Brendon Todd +8000
Callum Tarren +8000
Erik van Rooyen +8000
Greyson Sigg +8000
Joseph Bramlett +8000
Justin Suh +8000
Kevin Kisner +8000
Lanto Griffin +8000
Matthew NeSmith +8000
Nate Lashley +8000
Russell Knox +8000
Garrick Higgo +10000
Kevin Streelman +10000
Ryan Palmer +10000
Troy Merritt +10000
Webb Simpson +10000
Byeong Hun An +10000
Ben Taylor +12500
Brandon Wu +12500
Danny Willett +12500
Justin Lower +12500
Kevin Yu +12500
Ben Silverman +15000
Carl Yuan +15000
Dylan Frittelli +15000
Harry Hall +15000
Harry Higgs +15000
Henrik Norlander +15000
Kevin Tway +15000
Mark Hubbard +15000
Matthias Schwab +15000
Matti Schmid +15000
Scott Piercy +15000
Charley Hoffman +17500
Erik Barnes +17500
Fabian Gomez +17500
Luke Donald +17500
S.Y. Noh +17500
Sam Stevens +17500
Aaron Baddeley +20000
Adam Long +20000
Adam Schenk +20000
Austin Cook +20000
Austin Eckroat +20000
Cameron Percy +20000
Chesson Hadley +20000
Doug Ghim +20000
Harrison Endycott +20000
Jimmy Walker +20000
Lucas Glover +20000
Peter Malnati +20000
Ryan Armour +20000
Zac Blair +20000
Zecheng Dou +20000
Austin Smotherman +22500
Andrew Novak +25000
Augusto Nunez +25000
Ben Martin +25000
Chris Stroud +25000
Doc Redman +25000
Dylan Wu +25000
Eric Cole +25000
James Hahn +25000
Michael Kim +25000
MJ Daffue +25000
Ryan Moore +25000
Tano Goya +25000
Tyson Alexander +25000
Vincent Norrman +25000
Andrew Landry +30000
Brice Garnett +30000
Chad Ramey +30000
Marcel Siem +30000
Nico Echavarria +30000
Satoshi Kodaira +30000
Sean O’Hair +30000
Brent Grant +35000
Brian Gay +35000
David Lingmerth +35000
Paul Haley II +35000
Brian Stuard +40000
J. B. Holmes +40000
Jonathan Byrd +40000
Kelly Kraft +40000
Rory Sabbatini +40000
Sung Kang +40000
William McGirt +40000
Camilo Villegas +50000
Cody Gribble +50000
Geoff Ogilvy +50000
Grayson Murray +50000
Hank Lebioda +50000
John Pak +50000
Kevin Chappell +50000
Kevin Roy +50000
Max McGreevy +50000
Michael Gligic +50000
Nick Watney +50000
Richy Werenski +50000
Ryan Brehm +50000
Scott Brown +50000
Trevor Cone +50000
Trevor Werbylo +50000
Scott Harrington +60000
Bill Haas +75000
Garett Reband +75000
Jason Dufner +75000
Kyle Westmoreland +75000
Martin Trainer +75000
Wesley Bryan +75000
Anders Albertson +100000
Arjun Atwal +100000
Ben Crane +100000
Brandon Matthews +100000
Carson Young +100000
Charles Porter +100000
D.A. Points +100000
Greg Chalmers +100000
Kyle Stanley +100000
Paul O’Hara +100000
Philip Knowles +100000
RJ Manke +100000
Robert Garrigus +100000
Ted Potter Jr +100000
Tom Johnson +100000
Tommy Gainey +100000
Bo Van Pelt +100000

This was always bound to happen — especially this year.

It’s difficult to maintain that the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am hasn’t lost some luster since the ol’ Clambake days, when the likes of Bing Crosby and Bob Hope would give the game a much-needed — and much-anticipated — celebrity turn, as the game’s most popular players intermingled with the world’s biggest stars at one of the more iconic locations on the entire planet.

From then until now, something changed along the way — and we can collectively admit that this something was more us than the tournament.

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As a society, we’ve become more cynical. While watching a celebrity try to hit a six-iron was once so rare that we couldn’t look away, the prospect of having to witness a Ray Romano swing on our televisions is enough for most fans to race to their nearest device and thumb out their displeasure–not that I’m arguing.

I do think the CBS/Golf Channel broadcasts have done a much better job in recent years of giving the people what they want. We’ve become numb to C-list celebs missing fairways and making dad jokes. We want to see the actual golfers, they’ve been told, and they’ve (mostly) responded in kind.

Meanwhile, the players themselves have become more discerning. There are a lot of tournaments each year, and they’ve gotta pick and choose. For as beautiful as Pebble Beach is, it’s usually chilly, damp and fraught with six-hour rounds on three different courses.

Over the years, that’s been enough to keep most elite players away, but now there’s even more of a reason. With the decree that they must compete in 20 designated events — most of which are already decided for them — the decision on which events to skip has become an easier one. Throw in this week’s Saudi International, which has already attracted the LIV Golf talent and is claiming some PGA Tour regulars, too — and we’re left with a tourney which looks like a shell of the revered Clambake.

This week’s field includes just 23 players in the top 100 of the Official World Golf Ranking, seven in the top 50 (Matt Fitzpatrick, Viktor Hovland, Jordan Spieth, Seamus Power, Tom Hoge, Kevin Kisner and Kurt Kitayama), three in the top 20 and one in the top 10.

Those numbers pale in comparison to even recent editions of this event, which didn’t exactly have stellar field lists, and really pale in comparison to the first four events of this year, which accrued plenty of star-power, even on those non-designated weeks.

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If there’s a silver lining to this situation, it probably won’t come this week — although a Fitzpatrick/Hovland/Spieth leaderboard on Sunday afternoon would do wonders to help overall interest.

No, any cause for optimism comes in the implementation of four rotating designated events each year. There’s no telling whether this could or would be considered as one of ‘em for next season, but if the PGA Tour wants to harken back to the heyday of one of its long-standing grand events — even for just a one-time only outlier — the powers-that-be have now armed themselves with the capability to do just that.

It’s tough to say any singular event “deserves” such recognition more than others, but this one certainly feels like it could serve as a massive celebration of the game, should the Tour mandate that the Rorys and Rahms and JTs of the world “have to” spend four days playing on some of golf’s best eye-candy.

The lack of field strength will get all of the headlines this week, but it’s that built-in ability to change it moving forward which should at least be part of the consideration.

All of that said, these are the weeks we love.

Sure, it’s always fun to dig into a tourney loaded with the game’s top talents, but one which isn’t rife with superstars and offers some bigger prices on potential winners leaves the real bettors licking their chops, as well.

Let’s get to the plays, beginning with a pair of outrights on guys who have a little something in common.

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Outright
OAD Picks
Props
DFS
First-Round Leader
Matchup Man


Outright Winner (Short Odds)

One player to win the tournament.

Seamus Power (+2500)

There are a few things that I love about Seamus Power – some on a long-term basis, some specific to this week. I’ll start with the former: He’s a player who does everything pretty well and nothing poorly, although his iron game has been admittedly poor so far this season. The fact that he still owns three top-five results in seven starts – including his second career victory – hints that there’s room for improvement, and an even deeper investigation shows that a few very poor performances have skewed the numbers beyond the baseline.

With the Ryder Cup in mind and a closing window for the 35-year-old late-bloomer, every event is important, which leads us to the benefits of playing him this week.

A lookahead to the weather forecast on the Monterey Peninsula shows four tournament rounds where the temperature barely breaks 60 degrees and conditions are predictably damp. That sounds like the perfect setup for an Irishman who should feel right at home, as last year’s ninth-place finish suggests (Power also held the 36-hole lead by five shots).

In an event which seems to have a line of demarcation between the have and have-nots, Power is teetering on the former while being priced a bit like the latter. I’d expect this number to shrink as the week continues, so jump on it sooner rather than later. 


Outright Winner (Long odds)

One player to win the tournament

Callum Tarren (+13000)

I’m not gonna lie: A year ago at this time, Callum Tarren was just another name at the bottom of every PGA Tour priority ranking, a guy who many of us would’ve thought – if we thought about him at all – was struggling through his one year in the big leagues and would soon revert to even more anonymity somewhere else.

This tournament was his eighth missed cut in a row, interrupted by one WD. He soon got back on our collective radar, though, posting a few top 10s and qualifying for the U.S. Open, where he first really caught my attention, as he contended for the first couple of rounds.

Since then, he’s proven to be a solid and potentially undervalued player at this level – sort of a poor man’s Power, if you will, a late-comer in his own right who appears relentless in trying to make up for lost time.

I still have a bit of concern that the Englishman hasn’t figured out West Coast golf, though a T25 at Torrey Pines last week helps assuage that concern just a bit. In the end, though, his impressive wedge play from 100-125 yards, a range which will often be in play this week, is too much of a strength to overlook, especially at these odds.

Pick: Callum Tarren Outright +13000


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Other OADers

Potential selections for one-and-done options.

Jordan Spieth (+900)

Look, I’m not telling you anything you don’t know here. Spieth is an AT&T guy, always shows up for his sponsor, loves the pro-am format and usually contends on these tracks, with a win back in 2017 and six top 10s in 10 starts, including a pair of top-three finishes in each of the last two years. He’s the safe play. If you have one spot for Jordan all year and don’t think he’ll take down another major, then this should probably be the spot.

Whether you pick him or not is less a question about him and more a question about you. Are you the type who’s willing to tread water in the pool at this early point in the year and simply keep pace with the others? Then he’s probably the play. Or do you want to employ a contrarian strategy right off the bat? Then he probably isn’t.

These decisions often correlate to pool size. The smallest OAD that I’m in has 25 entrants, which suggests just keeping pace is good enough. The biggest one that I’m in has 1,000, where it’s more of a reward to fade the chalk. It’s tough to think Spieth won’t be on the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon, but whether you’re riding with him depends on your own personal pool strategies.

Matthew NeSmith (+10000)

At this price, Matthew NeSmith is a guy whom I like more in the outright/prop market than as an OAD selection this week. Nonetheless, I’m putting him here for the sake of the preview because I think it’s difficult to get too different at this one, and he at least represents an opportunity to do that.

We’ve seen NeSmith’s ceiling already this season, as he posted a runner-up and two other top 10s during the fall portion of the schedule, but we’ve also seen the cavernous floor, with three straight MCs, including two in a row to start the year. This one comes with plenty of warning labels, which is why I’d rather take him for high-risk/high-reward plays, but if you’re really trying to get contrarian for OADs, a guy with two top 20s in three career starts could certainly pop here once again.

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Top Five

One player to finish in the top five

Keith Mitchell (+750 for top five)

With such a weak field this week – have I mentioned that yet? – it poses a nice chance to play your own favorite mix tape. Essentially, if you’ve got a few guys whom you back on a regular basis, and they’re in this field, you might as well keep on keeping on. I’m probably more bullish on Mitchell in relation to the public than just about any other player. I thought last season was going to be a serious breakthrough, and while he was very solid, he hasn’t quite made that leap I’ve been expecting.

He is, though, a player who thrives on fun and partnerships and camaraderie – and as such, I like him more in a competitive pro-am environment than, say, a quiet, introverted type who simply wants to go about his business. I see Mitchell in the same vein as a Brandt Snedeker or Kevin Streelman, guys who have enjoyed success at this event because they enjoy competing with a partner, not in spite of that fact.

Though I haven’t seen the pairings at the time of this writing, I’m going to assume he’s once again playing alongside Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen, a partnership which yielded Mitchell a T12 finish last year.

Top 10

One player to finish in the top 10

Andrew Putnam (+275 for top-10)

I went a little too all-in on Putnam for The American Express two weeks ago, and while a T36 result wasn’t a total loss, he certainly didn’t live up to my personal expectations. I don’t mind going back to the well on the West Coaster here, though, as he was 54-hole co-leader last year and eventually finished in a share of sixth place. With a pair of top 10s – and no missed cuts! – in 10 starts so far this season, there’s no reason to think he won’t be back on the leaderboard this time.

Top 20

One player to finish in the top 20

Harry Hall (+500 for top 20)

Only two of the four competitive rounds will include measured statistics this week, but based on those 36 holes from last year’s edition, 10 of the top 11 on the final leaderboard finished ahead of the field in Strokes Gained: Putting. Let’s not mince words, though: You need to putt well, but you don’t necessarily have to be a good putter.

Even so, I’ll take a chance here on a rookie who happens to be leading the PGA Tour in putting. (Try that trivia question at your favorite 19th hole, and I guarantee every diehard fan will think it’s Taylor Montgomery instead.) Perhaps more importantly, he’s been putting well on the West Coast, as the England native and Las Vegas resident seems more comfortable than most on California Poa Annua. You’ll have to play some longshots this week, and Hall feels like a smart one to back. I don’t mind a top-five or top-10 play, either.

Top 30

One player to finish in the top 30

Brent Grant (+500 for top 30)

Excuse me for going the recency bias route here, but Brent Grant looked impressive – for the first couple of rounds, at least – in posting a T25 at the Famers last week. There are signs throughout his previous KFT days that while he might never be the most consistent player, he tends to build on some of that momentum.

Top 40

One player to finish in the top 40

Paul Haley II (+280 for top 40)

When there are only 23 top-100 players in the field and you’re seeking a sleeper play for a top 40, well, you’re gonna need to dig a little. Haley is a guy who was very good on the KFT circuit but hasn’t done much since a T12 at the Fortinet Championship to start his rookie campaign. Here’s hoping the NorCal vibes could return, as the Texas native is a strong wedge player and should have plenty of opportunities to brandish those scoring clubs.

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DFS Free Bingo Square

A safe plug-and-play option for DFS.

Matt Fitzpatrick

With Spieth listed above in this piece, the Bingo play essentially came down to Fitzpatrick and Hovland, but I went with Fitz for the sole reason that I really like his approach to events such as these. He reminds me of Patrick Cantlay in the way they each prepare for every tournament as if it’s the biggest one they’ll ever play.

There will be plenty of hijinks and frivolity at Pebble this week – and as I wrote in the section on Mitchell, that’s a good thing for some players – but the avoidance of being sucked into the party atmosphere feels like a good way to continue climbing the leaderboard throughout the weekend. If I’m spending up in the lineups, I’m spending on Fitz.

DFS Mid-Tier

A medium-priced option for DFS lineups

Nick Hardy

Yet another player on whom I’ve very bullish – and yet another one who fits a handful of different categories this week. At +7000, I don’t completely love the outright number, but I find it tough to believe Hardy will play poor golf, especially coming off a week at Torrey Pines where his ball-striking performance outshined his T44 result. I’ll lock him into plenty of lineups and am confident that he should own a lofty floor this week.

DFS ‘Dog

A lower-priced option for DFS lineups

Ben Silverman

Five years ago, those who were paying serious attention might’ve made the connection between Silverman’s victory on the Korn Ferry Tour last week and his inclusion in this week’s PGA Tour field and used it to own some leverage over their fellow competitors, just by keeping on eye on things.

These days, though, there’s so much smart content all over the Internet that I’m guessing even casual players will know all about Silverman by Thursday morning, and he’ll actually be overexposed.

Hey, that’s great. I love that the masses have become smarter about situations like this. As I often say, betting/fantasy has made golf fans more intelligent about what they’re watching (and whom they’re watching), which in turn helps create a more knowledgeable community. Go ahead and fire on Silverman, who nearly blew a massive lead on the KFT, only to win in a playoff, but don’t blame me if he’s much higher owned than you expected.

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First-Round Leader

One player to post the low score Thursday.

Beau Hossler

Just like last week and the week before that, this tournament features a multi-course rotation which makes FRL betting an exacting proposition. As always, I’m writing before tee times have been released, so I’ll simply leave this open-ended on Hossler: Last year, he followed an opening 70 on Monterey Peninsula CC with a pair of 65s on Spyglass and Pebble.

One of the emerging better putters on the PGA Tour and a guy who’s played well in his native California previously, I like him for full-tourney plays but believe he owns even more value as a single-round play for his ability to go low at a moment’s notice, as he showed here twice last year.


» Return to the table of contents «


Matchup Man

One player who should beat comparable players.

Erik Van Rooyen (+7500)

There were a few different reasons to be encouraged by Van Rooyen’s play at The AmEx two weeks ago, but none more than that it represents a stark early turnaround from his play last year, when he posted just a pair of global top 10s and nearly as many missed cuts (10) as made cuts (11).

Not many players make first-time fatherhood look as easy on the golf course as Max Homa, and without knowing anything, maybe there was a transition time for the South African.

In any case, that year-opening T6 in Palm Desert might’ve been the sign we needed that EVR is ready to play the type of world-class golf he’d been playing in previous years. I suggest jumping on him before the oddsmakers figure it out.

Also Receiving Votes

Other players who should provide value

Joel Dahmen (+4000), Nick Taylor (+6000), Taylor Moore (+6000), Kurt Kitayama (+7000), Greyson Sigg (+9000), Webb Simpson (+10000), Joseph Bramlett (+11000), Harry Higgs (+15000)

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NBA Betting Trends, Notes & Stats: 76ers Rise in Power Ratings, the All-Star Stretch, More

Our weekly look at NBA Power Ratings and betting trends across the association, featuring the rising 76ers, the sneaky Magic, and road woes for Memphis.

As always, these are quantitative, based on my projections for spread vs. an average team, and not qualitative power ratings, which would vary considerably.

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NBA Power Ratings

Top 5

1. Boston Celtics (+4)

Little bit of a slide for Boston as of late, but nothing concerning. The Celtics are also the only team top-5 in both schedule-adjusted offense and defense in the NBA. Getting Marcus Smart back should stabilize them back toward the higher 50s in wins.

2. Philadelphia 76ers (+4)

Joel Embiid put on a prolific performance vs. the Nuggets. Doc Rivers changed up Embiid’s rotation and put PJ Tucker on Nikola Jokic to mess things up. It was cool to see a team throw the kitchen sink at a team in a high-profile spot. The Sixers are just one game back of the Celtics for the division.

3. Brooklyn Nets (+3.5)

I have the Nets as the No. 1 team when fully healthy, but downgraded a full 2.8 points for Kevin Durant’s absence. So don’t be surprised when I have the Nets back at the top next week. However, their defense has fallen off a cliff the last two weeks, rating 18th in the league.

4. Denver Nuggets (+3)

Denver fell to 2-5 on the road vs. teams with a top-10 point differential. Boston, Toronto, Chicago, Dallas and Washington are the best teams in that category, though, so it’s not exactly a championship qualifier. It will be interesting to see if teams try and emulate what the Sixers did defensively to bother Jokic.

5. Cleveland Cavaliers (+2.5)

The Cavaliers’ intended starting lineup of Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Isaac Okoro, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen has a negative net rating of -0.9. That’s concerning and a big reason why the Cavs are expected to pursue small-forward help.

Middle Five

13. New York Knicks (+1)

The Knicks are likable because they’re predictable.

nba-betting-notes-stats-knicks
Dustin Satloff/Getty Images. Pictured: Immanuel Quickley

The Knicks are 11-16 vs. teams over .500 and 16-8 vs. teams under .500, straight up. They’re 7-10-1 ATS as a home favorite, and 11-8 ATS as a road dog. They beat bad teams and cover on the road.

14. Milwaukee Bucks (+1)

The Bucks are on the rise; they were bottom-10 for me two weeks ago. The offense has put together three great weeks; they’re fourth in the last two weeks in offensive rating. It still feels like they need one more wing, especially with Serge Ibaka, who they traded multiple wings for, now sitting home waiting for a trade.

15. Los Angeles Clippers (+1)

Kawhi Leonard’s been dynamite when he plays, but he’s played just 27 of 53 games. The Clippers have the No. 1 offense in the last 10 games and are No. 7 in 3-point rate and No. 1 in 3-point percentage in that span. That’s a big change from the start of the season, where they were bottom-10 in both. They look more like the Clippers.

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16. Golden State Warriors (+0.5)

We keep waiting for the Warriors’ run. Is it coming? The Warriors’ Big 4 with Kevon Looney instead of Jordan Poole still has the second-best net rating in the league. They have the fourth-worst bench in the NBA. Can you go the distance with that? Can they stay healthy? It feels like the championship core is trying to just stretch out one more run.

17. Los Angeles Lakers (Even)

For all the complaints about the Lakers’ late-game officiating — and that call in the Celtics game was atrocious — they’re still 12-13 in games inside five points in the final five minutes. That’s not the reason they’re looking up at the play-in. It would help, but they have bigger issues.

Bottom 5

26. Indiana Pacers (-3.5)

nba-betting-notes-stats-pacers-mathurin
Justin Ford/Getty Images. Pictured: Bennedict Mathurin

Giving them a -2.2 adjustment with Tyrese Haliburton out, and that might be light. The Pacers are 2-9 straight up and 3-8 ATS without Haliburton this season. This stretch without him might determine if they make the playoffs.

27. Detroit Pistons (-6.5)

The Pistons are 4-12 ATS at home as a dog, 12-12-2 as a dog on the road.

28. Charlotte Hornets (-6.5)

Charlotte is just two back in the loss column from catching the Pistons and Rockets for the worst record in the league and the No. 1 lottery spot. So wins like Sunday against the Heat with Terry Rozier going for 31 and P.J. Washington going for 27 are likely to move both of those players (and Mason Plumlee) closer to being traded.

29. Houston Rockets (-8.0)

Alperen Sengun is averaging 17-9-6 in the last 15 games, and he’s only playing 30 minutes a night. It’s time to take the training wheels off and accept who the best player on their team long-term is. You can still lose enough while getting Sengun the development he’ll need long-term.

30. San Antonio Spurs (-9.0)

If the Spurs wind up not getting a top-two pick in a top-two draft after this season, it will be quite the twist for a franchise that had essentially a 40-year run of relevance.

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NBA Betting Trends

The Witching Hour

I mentioned last week that things get a little screwy in the NBA during the upcoming span of time. Players are worn out from three-plus months of basketball, trade rumors, and making plans for their well-earned break at All-Star Weekend.

As such, you can actually see an impact on teams, particularly favorites, in this span. Since 2012-13, the overall ATS win percentage for underdogs is 48.9%. Between Feb. 1st and Feb. 14 (approximately when All-Star break typically is) that number rises to 55.8%.

nba-first-basket prop-pick-franz-wagner-wendell-carter-january 25-2023
Julio Aguilar/Getty Images. Pictured: Wendell Carter Jr. #34 and Franz Wagner #22 of the Orlando Magic.

Straight-up performance for dogs increases from a 30% win rate to 32%. (There’s no significant differential in total performance.)

This matches the eye test. It’s not that there’s a significant edge to be found in this time frame (or one that I’ve found anyway). It’s that there are just a lot of messy results.

So be careful out there.

Notes

  • The Magic are 7-3 in their last 10 and have a real shot at hitting their over on their win total of 27.5. Orlando was banged up the first three months of the season, and while its intended starting unit hasn’t been great yet, it’s finding ways to win. League sources also believe the Magic are looking to add, not sell, at the deadline.
  • The Rockets are 8-2 in the first half ATS in their last 10, and 2-8 overall. The perfect tank performance. They have a positive net rating when Sengun is on the floor without Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr.
  • The Pacers fell to 3-9 ATS this week without Haliburton, 2-10 straight up, and the under is now 7-5.
  • The over in Sixers games is 8-2 in their last 10 games, with the Sixers’ team total over 6-4 and the team total allowed over 6-4. With a total of 231+, the Sixers’ team total under is 5-3. With a total below 231, the Sixers’ team total over is 26-15 (65%).
  • Teams on the second night of a back-to-back at home this season are 58-46-3 (58%). The Pacers host the Kings on Friday in such a spot, and the Pistons host the Suns on Saturday in the same.
  • The Brooklyn Nets are 4-4 straight up and 5-3 ATS without Durant this season and Durant is likely to return before the All-Star Break. That should scare folks.
  • An underrated player for the spread? Christian Wood. With Maxi Kleber also out, the Mavericks are 3-6 straight up and ATS without Wood this season.
  • A shocker injury note? The Warriors are 8-6 ATS without Steph Curry this season. Have I mentioned how bizarre this Warriors season has been?
  • The Grizzlies last week fell to 3-14-1 ATS on the road vs. Western Conference opponents. They are not, in fact, fine with the West.

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College Basketball Odds, Picks, Prediction for San Diego State vs. Nevada (Tuesday, Jan. 31)

college-basketball-odds-picks-prediction-san-diego-state-aztecs-vs-nevada-wolf-pack-tuesday-january-31

San Diego State vs. Nevada Odds

Tuesday, Jan. 31
11 p.m. ET
CBS Sports Network
San Diego State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-2.5
-110
138.5
-110o / -110u
-166
Nevada Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+2.5
-110
138.5
-110o / -110u
+138
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

San Diego State maintains a one-game lead at the top of the Mountain West standings as the Aztecs enter their most difficult three-game stretch of their conference schedule. They’ll play Boise State this weekend and travel to Utah State next week, but the Aztecs will first travel to Reno to take on Nevada on Tuesday night.

The Wolf Pack are unbeaten at home this season, with a 10-0 record that includes wins against Boise State, New Mexico and Utah State in league play. It’s also an excellent revenge spot for Nevada after the Aztecs beat the Wolf Pack by nine points in the first meeting between the two teams on Jan. 10.

Despite it being a good situational spot for Nevada at home off a costly away defeat at UNLV on Saturday, the market has moved solidly against the Wolf Pack. The Aztecs opened as one-point favorites and are now laying almost a full possession on the road. The matchup is considerably less favorable for the Wolf Pack than the spot, and the Aztecs still show some value even after the overnight steam.

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San Diego State Aztecs

The question for San Diego State entering the season is whether or not it would be able to score enough to make a true deep NCAA Tournament run and supplement its elite defense. What we’ve learned this season is that the Aztecs have plenty of offense, but the defense has shown unexpected cracks and fallen from its previously elite level of years past.

The Aztecs now have comparable offensive and defensive efficiency ratings per KenPom, which is quite a surprise given where they began the season. The Aztecs have the 248th-best 2-point defense in the country, they grade out below average in transition defense and are below average against ball screens, per Synergy.

Last season, ShotQuality graded this defense as 24th-best in field goal percentage allowed at the rim. This year, they’ve fallen to just outside the top 100. This is still an elite perimeter defense — they rank 11th in Open 3 Rate and can apply ball pressure to take offenses out of their rhythm and force turnovers.

San Diego State does have some matchup advantages in this game that it can exploit though. The Aztecs run pick-and-roll at one of the highest rates in the country offensively, and that’s a major weakness for the Nevada defense. The Wolf Pack are in the 28th percentile nationally per Synergy in pick-and-roll defense. San Diego State is pushing transition more than years past too, and that will exploit a porous Nevada transition defense in this matchup.

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Nevada Wolf Pack

Nevada goes to the high post for its offense more than most offenses in the country, and the Wolf Pack are quite efficient there. One of the main reasons this is a poor matchup for them is that the Aztecs have one of the best post-up defenses in the country.

On paper, SDSU was a top-20 post-up defense unit entering the season. Even using the data from this year with reigning MWC defensive player of the year Nathan Mensah, the Aztecs are 72nd percentile in guarding the post.

The Aztecs also have the individual on-ball defender quality to slow down the isolation talent and shotmaking of Jarod Lucas. Lucas managed 11 points on 2-of-6 shooting and 1-of-4 from deep in the first meeting. Post-up first forward Will Baker only scored seven points.

Nevada’s offense should stay in this game by getting to the free throw line, but there’s no other easy way for them to get points. The Wolf Pack’s transition offense is pretty mediocre, and that’s one area where the Aztecs are considerably more vulnerable defensively this season.

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San Diego State vs. Nevada Betting Pick

It’s important to note that even though Nevada covered the closing line in the last meeting with a backdoor nine-point defeat, they weren’t ever in the game. San Diego State never trailed for a second in the game and led by as many as 22 in the final 10 minutes. The Wolf Pack closed the game on a 15-2 run to make the score look a lot more respectable than it was.

That’s also not the only time the Aztecs have taken their foot off the gas and struggled with teams in the final minutes of games when protecting a huge lead. Overall, it dampens their efficiency metrics and market ratings more than it really should.

San Diego State certainly has issues breaking presses without turning the ball over, but they’re the clearly much better team in a very favorable matchup on Tuesday. I’d lay the Aztecs at -3 or better.


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BetMGM Bonus Code TOPACTION Unlocks $1,000 Offer for Tuesday Slate

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New users at BetMGM Sportsbook can get up to $1,000 in value with BetMGM bonus code TOPACTION.

Make your first wager at BetMGM Sportsbook. If it wins, you keep the profits and the original bet amount. If it loses, you’ll be refunded in bonus bets, equal to whatever you lost.

This offer is available in all BetMGM states but New York. In a few other states — Ohio, Maryland, Kansas, Louisiana and Illinois — BetMGM is offering $200 in bonus bets when you wager $10 on any NBA game. It’s a lower-risk, lower-payout offer.

  • TOPACTION: A $1,000 first bet on the house.
  • ACTIONNBA: Bet $10, get $200 in bonus bets if the NBA team you bet hits a 3-pointer. Available in Ohio, Maryland, Kansas, Illinois and Louisiana.

Still confused? Let’s dive into both offers.

How BetMGM Bonus Code ACTIONNBA Works

This offer is only available in a few BetMGM states (the ones that have launched more recently).

  • Just bet $10 on any NBA game tonight.
  • If your team hits a single 3-pointer, you’ll get $200 in bonus bets. And it’s been almost seven years since a team didn’t hit a 3.

Once you have the bonus bets, you’ll have to wager them to turn them into cash. If you bet an NBA game on Tuesday night, you may not have the bonus bets in time to use them on another game Tuesday.

Let’s say I take $50 in bonus bets (BetMGM will split them up into four $50 increments) and put them on the Buffalo Sabres +110 against the Carolina Hurricanes on Wednesday night.

  • If the Sabres win, I profit $55 ($50 x 1.1) but I don’t keep the bonus bet itself.
  • If the Sabres lose, the bonus bet goes away.

How Bonus Code TOPACTION Works

Like the previous offer, BetMGM bonus code TOPACTION has two parts — the first bet, and if that bet loses, the bonus bets.

The First Wager

After signing up and depositing, it’s time to make your first bet.

The mathematically optimal strategy is to use your first bet and bonus bets at plus-money.

Let’s say you deposit $200 and put it all on the Heat +180 against the Cavs on Tuesday night.

  • If the Heat win, you profit $360 and keep the $200 you bet. The promo is now over; that $560 is cash you can bet or withdraw.
  • If the Heat lose, you get $200 back in bonus bets
Outcome Profits Total $ in acct.
Heat win $360 $560
Heat lose $0 $200 in bonus bets

Using Bonus Bets, if Necessary

OK, pretend the Heat lose. You have $200 in bonus bets. How do they work?

We described bonus bets above using the other promo code but we’ll do another example.

Say you put $50 in bonus bets on the Chiefs +110 in the Super Bowl.

  • If the Chiefs win, you profit $55 ($50 x 1.1) but you don’t keep the $50 bonus bet itself. That just goes away.
  • If the Chiefs lose, you lose the bonus bet, and you’ll have $150 in bonus bets remaining.

Registering Your BetMGM Account

Here’s how to sign up at BetMGM. It should take just a few minutes.

  1. Start by clicking here
  2. Use TOPACTION or ACTIONNBA at checkout
  3. Enter all your real info (name, address, last four of SSN) or BetMGM won’t be able to verify your identity, and you won’t be able to deposit.
  4. Deposit at least $10
  5. Make your first bet up to $1,000

New users must be located in a state where BetMGM is active. It should be noted that you don’t have to live in Ohio to wager for example, you just have to be in the state at the time of activation and making a bet. And if you live in Ohio but are in Minnesota, you can sign up but you can’t bet.

BetMGM Casino Offerings

If you want to take your holiday fun beyond the sportsbook, be sure to check out Action Network’s BetMGM Casino offer with a value up to $1,025 when you use casino bonus code ACTIONCASINO.

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Bet365 Virginia Bonus Code ACTION Offers $200 in VA, All Other States for Tuesday

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bet365 is now live in Virginia and bet365 bonus code ACTION unlocks $200 in bet credits when you wager at least $1 on any game. The credits can then be used on anything, including NBA, college hoops, the Super Bowl and much more.

Here are the steps to claim it:

  • Enter bet365 bonus code ACTION at checkout
  • Deposit at least $10
  • Bet a $1 on any game
  • Get $200 in bet credits once that game ends

Your initial $1 bet must be greater than -500 odds (so -200 is OK, -750 is not). And once you get the bet credits, those can be used on any sport or game. You should have the credits within an hour once your first bet settles.

Again, just use this link to get started and enter code bet365 bonus code ACTION when you’re almost finished signing up.

bet365 offers our favorite same game parlay features in the industry, and an extremely user-friendly app.

How the bet365 Bonus Code Works

This is truly one of the most straightforward sign-up offers in sports betting right now. Just deposit $10, bet $1, and you get $200 in bet credits.

Let’s dive deeper with some examples from Tuesday’s sports slate.

Unlocking Credits

Let’s say I deposit $200. Then for my first bet, I wager $10 on the Cavaliers -5 against the Heat.

  • If the Cavs cover, I’ll make about $9.1, and keep my $10. So I’ll now have $209.10 in cash, plus $200 in bet credits.
  • If the Cavs don’t cover, I lose the $10 and I’ll have $190 in cash and $200 in bet credits.

That’s it! Now let’s dive into how the credits work once you’ve got them.

Using Bet Credits

OK, you’ve activated the offer and the credits are in your account. What happens next?

With bet credits at most sites including bet365, you keep any profits you make, but you don’t keep the initial bet amount.

Let’s say I want to put $10 on a golf longshot and go with Taylor Moore at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am this weekend. He’s 70-1 and endorsed by our Josh Perry.

I’ll start my card here with Taylor Moore at +7000 on FanDuel. Moore will be a popular pick this week. He managed to finish 16th in his debut here last year and is coming of an 11th last week at Torrey Pines where he put up good ball striking numbers.

Moore is a well-rounded player who doesn’t really have a big strength or weakness, so a lot comes down to current form with him since there’s no clear cut course fit. I’ll take a chance the good tee-to-green play carries over and his above-average short game can get him into contention.

  • If Moore wins, I’ll profit $700 ($10 x 70.0) but I don’t keep the $10 credit.
  • If Moore doesn’t win, the credit just goes away.

The best way to use your bet credits is on longshots, because you’re getting much more expected value. We recommend tight markets in the +300 to +500 range.

Here are a few more ways to bet the Tuesday sports slate.

Bet365 Terms & Conditions

Here are the important points to know about this offer:

  • States available: New Jersey, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Ontario
  • You’ll get the bet credits will be issued one hour after your first $1 or more bet settles.
  • You have 30 days to place your first bet once you make your account, or the offer will be forfeited.
  • Creditsets will be forfeited if your account is inactive for 90 days — aka you don’t login.
  • You cannot bet on opposite sides of the same game with credit bets to guarantee a profit. So, you can’t bet $25 each on both the Vikings and Patriots to win.

2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am Odds, Expert Picks: Taylor Moore, Beau Hossler Among Longshot Bets

2023-pebble-beach-pro-am-odds-expert-picks-taylor-moore-beau-hossler

The PGA Tour’s course rotations in California continue this week with the Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

It’s always a tough event for betting purposes when we have to factor in multiple courses and long rounds bogged down by amateurs. But we know previous good results here have been important, so that gives us a starting point to work from.

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The Courses

Scoring here is usually pretty easy, but the wind can make it tricky if it picks up. Monterrey usually plays the easiest of the three, but if the wind picks up, the par-72 Spyglass Hill has more trees that protect it and becomes much more playable than Pebble Beach.

All the courses measure around 7,000 yards and play as some of the shortest on Tour.

It’s one of the few events where length off the tee isn’t really a big factor. It usually comes down to a good iron player who can handle putting on bumpy and fast poa annua greens.

It tends to be an event where a star is dialed in and takes it down, or we get someone to pull off a massive surprise.

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The Favorites

Jordan Spieth, Matthew Fitzpatrick and Viktor Hovland are the three clear names at the top of the board this week. All of them are available at around +1000 depending on where you look. Spieth has the best track record of anyone in the field with six top 10s and a win in 2017. He’s also finished 2nd and 3rd the past two years. Fitzpatrick hasn’t played here often, but finally figured out the event to some extent last season, finishing 6th. Hovland has only played the event once in 2020, finishing 38th.

Andrew Putnum, Maverick McNealy, Tom Hoge and Seamus Power make up the +2000 range here. Hoge is the defending champ, while McNealy has finished inside the top five in two of the past three years. Power has had a checkered past here, but did come in ninth a year ago, so he might have finally learned how to juggle these courses. Putnam is in a similar boat, finishing sixth last year after missing out on the top 25 in his first four tries.

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The Midtier

I’ll start my card here with Taylor Moore at +7000 on FanDuel. Moore will be a popular pick this week. He managed to finish 16th in his debut here last year and is coming of an 11th last week at Torrey Pines where he put up good ball striking numbers.

Moore is a well-rounded player who doesn’t really have a big strength or weakness, so a lot comes down to current form with him since there’s no clear cut course fit. I’ll take a chance the good tee-to-green play carries over and his above-average short game can get him into contention.

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I’ll follow up with Nick Taylor at +7000 on FanDuel as well. Taylor won here in 2020 and has peppered in two other top 15s in the past six tries. He was also 7th at Sony a couple weeks ago, which is another short course along the ocean. Taylor is on the shorter side off the tee, but is good with the shorter irons, so this is one of the better spots for him.


Next up, we’ll go to Beau Hossler at +8500 on FanDuel. Hossler is a California native who finished third here a year ago. He primarily rides a hot short game, but he did gain two strokes ball striking on the South Course last week in a missed cut. So I’ll take a chance on him at this price on a course that might fit his game better.


The Longshots

I’ll open this area of the board with Nate Lashley at 100/1 on DraftKings. Lashley was fifth here two years ago and seventh at Sony a couple weeks back. So the game could be in a spot to pop up at an event that suits him. Lashley finds a lot of fairways and has improved with the irons over the past year, so if the putter shows up for him, he can contend here.

Next we’ll go to Jimmy Walker at 210/1 on FanDuel. Longshots can get it done here. Both Vaughn Taylor and Ted Potter Jr. were longer than 200/1, giving us two winners in this range in the past seven years.

Walker’s health issues have been well-documented, but this has been a great spot for him in the past, winning in 2014. He’s also fresh off a 13th at Torrey Pines last week.

That course doesn’t fit him currently at all. So even though most of his success came from the short game, the fact that he was close to field average with the ball striking there was a promising sign as we head to a less demanding event.


I’ll wrap up here with Peter Malnati at 250/1 on DraftKings. Malnati really hasn’t shown much here. His best finish was 11th three years ago. He really rides his short game, but is coming off a 20th at Torrey Pines where he gained more than four strokes with the irons on the South Course. The putting and chipping is fairly solid for him, so if he can keep the ball in play off the time and find that iron play again this week, he’s a live longshot on these shorter courses.

This leaves a little room in the card for a live play. The strategy would be to wait until after they’ve played Spyglass. This week doesn’t appear to have much wind in the forecast, so that course will likely play the hardest.

The Pebble Beach card

  • Taylor Moore +7000 (.47 units)
  • Nick Taylor +7000 (.47 units)
  • Beau Hossler +8500 (.39 units)
  • Nate Lashley +10000 (.33 units)
  • Jimmy Walker +21000 (.16 units)
  • Peter Malnati +25000 (.13 units)

Total Stake: 1.95 units

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Patrick Mahomes Betting Career Manifesto: 15 Facts, Trends & Notes Entering Super Bowl 57

patrick mahomes-betting-stats-trends-super bowl

In Patrick Mahomes’ NFL career, he has won almost 80% of his games. Straight up (SU) on the moneyline that is. Mahomes is 74-19 SU (79.6%), including the playoffs.

For some perspective, only three QBs in NFL history have even a 70%+ SU win percentage with a minimum 100 games played: Daryle Lamonica, Tom Brady and Roger Staubach, with Lamonica on top at 74.8%.

We know Mahomes is a winner. But does he cover?

In his 93 career starts (regular season and playoffs), he is 48-43-2 (52.7%) against the spread (ATS). When it comes to profitability, a consistent $100 spread bettor would be up just $278 backing Mahomes in each of his starts.

Using the Bet Labs database, which goes back 20 years to 2003 for the NFL, Mahomes has the best win percentage SU of any QB, but ATS he’s ranked just 40th.

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Chiefs vs. Eagles 
Channel: FOX | 6:30 p.m. ET (Sun. Feb 12)
Line: PHI (-2) | O/U: 49.5
Patrick Mahomes, KC
2022 Career Playoffs (Career)
7-12 ATS
16-3 SU
48-43-2 ATS
74-19 SU
8-5 ATS
10-3 SU
Jalen Hurts, PHI
2022 Career Playoffs (Career)
10-7 ATS
16-1 SU
19-17-1 ATS
25-12 SU
2-1 ATS
2-1 SU

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How to Bet Patrick Mahomes

Let’s go through 15 trends, notes and facts for Mahomes and Super Bowl 57:

1. Fade the Move With Mahomes

The Chiefs opened as 2-point favorites but are now underdogs in Super Bowl 57. In Mahomes’ career, when the line moves away from him (e.g., -2 to +2), he is 23-19-1 ATS. When the line moves in his favor, he’s 16-21-1 ATS vs. the closing line.

2. How to Handicap Experience

Mahomes has the Super Bowl experience edge over Jalen Hurts.

  • QBs with Super Bowl experience, facing a QB with no SB experience, are 19-15 SU and 16-18 ATS all time.
  • This will be the 21st time in Super Bowl history when one QB has a 2+ Super Bowl experience gap — the experienced quarterback is 12-8 SU.

3. The King of Tossups

Mahomes has played 25 games in his career either as a favorite of three points or less or an underdog. He is 18-6-1 ATS in those games. In all other contests, he is 30-37-1 ATS.

In the last 20 years, he is the eighth-most profitable QB against the spread in “toss-up” games.

4. Dog the Bounty Hunter

We talked about it for a few days last week and now we’re in the same boat again. Mahomes has closed as an underdog nine times in his career. He is 6-3 SU and 7-1-1 ATS.

After last week’s close call, this would be the first time in Mahomes’ career he opens as a favorite and closes as an underdog.

5. Best vs. The Best

Mahomes’ passing yards prop is set at 290.5. That’s the highest passing yards prop total against the Eagles defense since they faced Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes in October last season. In the Eagles-Chiefs meeting last season, Mahomes threw for 278 yards and went under his prop total.

Opposing QBs are 3-16 to the over for their passing yards prop against the Eagles this season.

6. Away From Arrowhead

When it comes to covering the spread, Mahomes prefers the road than Arrowhead Stadium. In Kansas City, he’s 23-25-1 ATS, away he’s 25-18-1 ATS.

Though recently, it hasn’t looked as pretty.

Mahomes ATS Away From Home (Road/Neutral):

  • 2020 – 2022: 12-14 ATS
  • 2017 – 2019: 13-4-1 ATS
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7. Dual Threat

Against the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game, Mahomes and Travis Kelce (13) passed Joe Montana and Jerry Rice (12) for the second-most touchdowns all time in the playoffs for a QB-Receiver duo.

Mahomes and Kelce are now two TDs away from tying Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski (15) for the most all time.

8. Back To Back …

Mahomes is just 4-11 ATS this season after a SU win in his last game, and 18-26 ATS after a win since 2020.

He has played nine games with at least two weeks of preparation, when the Chiefs are coming off a SU win — Kansas City is 8-1 SU in the next game. The only loss? Super Bowl LV vs. the Buccaneers.

9. Road Warrior

This season, the under is 8-2 for Mahomes and the Chiefs when they play at Arrowhead Stadium, making Mahomes the most profitable QB to the under at home in the NFL.

Away from home this season, Mahomes and the Chiefs are 6-3 to the over. Since the beginning of last season, they are 12-5 to the over away from Arrowhead with Mahomes.

In his two Super Bowls though, it is worth noting that both games went under the total, with both totals closing in the 50s.

10. The K.C. D

The Chiefs defense has allowed 20 points or fewer in three consecutive games. When the K.C. defense gets hot, watch out. Mahomes and Co. are 17-2 SU after allowing 20 pts or fewer in consecutive games, winning 10 in a row dating back to 2020.

11. Where’s The Magic?

Mahomes is 7-10-2 against the second-half spread this season, his least profitable 2H ATS year as a pro.

After losing the second-half spread against the Bengals, Mahomes has a 8-4-1 2H ATS record in the playoffs.

Mahomes has been tied or trailed at the half twice in the AFC playoffs — he’s won and covered both second halves.

In the Chiefs’ last nine games with Mahomes, Kansas City is 0-7-2 against the second-half spread entering the Super Bowl.

12. Interception Free

For the third consecutive game, Mahomes has kept a clean sheet in the interception column. He hasn’t gone four straight games without a pick since Oct. 2020.

In Mahomes’ two previous Super Bowls, he has thrown four interceptions, two in each game.

13. “MahomesVP”

Mahomes is expected to win the MVP Award this season after receiving 49 of the 50 possible first-place votes for the AP All-Pro team. How has the MVP historically fared in the playoffs?

  • Won Super Bowl: 10 (last? Kurt Warner in 1999)
  • Lost Super Bowl: 15
  • Conference Champ: 9
  • Divisional Round: 13
  • Wild Card: 3
  • Lost first playoff game: 16

14. West Coast Vibes

Super Bowl 57 will take place at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. Mahomes has played 19 games in his pro career either in the Pacific or Mountain Standard time zone.

Mahomes is 17-2 straight up in those games. His two losses? Back in 2018 against the Rams and Seahawks. Mahomes is 7-0 SU in MST and 13-0 SU in PST and MST since the start of the 2019 season.

15. Here We Go Again …

The Chiefs are underdogs. The public is fading Kansas City.

We heard the same story last week early on and K.C. ended up closing as the favorite. The Chiefs closed with 37% of the tickets, the lowest bet % of Mahomes’ 93-start career.

Currently in the Super Bowl, they are at 36% of tickets.

This would only be the third time Mahomes closes as a favorite, with the minority share of the ticket count:

  • 2022: Chiefs (+2.5) vs. Bills (BUF 24-20)
  • 2018: Chiefs (+3.5) at Chargers (K.C. 38-28)

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NBA Picks, Predictions, Odds: 3 Best Bets For Hawks vs. Trail Blazers, Magic vs. 76ers

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This was quite the weekend in sports, especially in the NBA Saturday. Monday brings us yet another busy night across the Associate, including two games on NBA TV: Lakers vs. Nets (7:30 p.m. ET) and Hawks vs. Trail Blazers (10 p.m. ET).

Our betting analysts are targeting one of those matchups, plus Magic vs. 76ers for their best bets Monday. They break down their expert picks and predictions below.

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NBA Odds & Picks

Click on a pick to skip ahead
Magic vs. 76ers Spread
Magic vs. 76ers Spread
Hawks vs. Trail Blazers Player Prop

Orlando Magic vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Pick
Magic +9.5
Book
FanDuel
Tipoff
7 p.m. ET
TV
NBA League Pass

Chris Baker: Hard to imagine a worse situational spot for this 76ers team who just had their biggest win of the season against an elite Denver Nuggets team. They had a dramatic and emotional comeback win that saw Joel Embiid make a statement with 47 points on 18-of-31 shooting.

The following day this 76ers team got to head over to Lincoln Financial Field and witness their hometown Eagles advance to the Super Bowl over the 49ers. The entire starting five was at the game alongside Meek Mill and Eagles ownership. I am not saying these guys aren’t professionals, but this is just a horrible spot for them as they are now forced to get up for the Orlando Magic.

Additionally, Joel Embiid has a questionable designation as of this writing. His 38 minutes against the Nuggets was the most minutes he has played in a game since Dec. 23. He also had his seventh-highest usage rate (42.4%) of the season and attempted the second-most shots (31) of any game he has played this year. He expended a lot of energy on Saturday and I wouldn’t be surprised if they look to rest him against weaker Magic team.

Even if you remove all the situational and injury analysis I still think this line is off at +10 as I have tremendous respect for this healthy Magic team. Through 356 possessions, their current starting five has a +9.9 net-rating and a ridiculous 125.8 Offensive Rating.

This team is legitimately talented and their bench-depth has only been further strengthened with the return of Jonathan Isaac. This team also may be slightly under-valued when compared to the 76ers as the Magic have played the league’s 11th-toughest schedule while the Sixers have faced the third-easiest schedule, according to Dunks And Threes.

Finally, the Magic have been remarkably elite at covering spreads against “good” teams. The Magic are 17-9 ATS (65%) against teams that currently rank top-15 in adjusted net-rating. I expect this Magic team to compete and have a chance to win so I grabbed them at +10.5 and +380 moneyline this morning.

The line has since moved but I would play their spread down to +8.5 and their moneyline to +330.


» Return to the table of contents «


Orlando Magic vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Pick
Magic +9.5
Book
FanDuel

Matt Moore: Orlando has been great on the road as a dog this season, 12-8-3 ATS, and 8-6-1 as a double-digit dog.

The Sixers are typically great against bad teams, but Orlando’s power rating is a little off based on how injured they were to start the season. Joel Embiid will feast and do his thing, the Sixers will absolutely win this game.

But I’ll trust Orlando to hang in and keep this within range in a letdown spot for the Sixers after a huge win against the Denver Nuggets on Saturday.


» Return to the table of contents «


Atlanta Hawks vs. Portland Trail Blazers

Pick
Clint Capella — Double Double (-110)
Book
PointsBet
Tipoff
10 p.m. ET
TV
NBA TV

Joe Dellera: The Hawks face the Blazers tonight and one player I’m targeting is Clint Capela. Capela has had a strong history vs Jusuf Nurkic. In his last six games head-to-head, Capela has averaged 14.0 points and 12.2 rebounds with five double doubles.

This is a good spot for Capela even though this is a tougher travel spot going from Atlanta to Portland, but Capela has recorded three consecutive double doubles.

Nurkic is listed as questionable due to a calf injury and he missed the team’s last game on Saturday. I like this spot even if Nurkic plays; however, if he sits, this becomes an even better play as their next best option at center is Drew Eubanks.


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Bet $10, Get $200 in Bonus Bets if Mahomes or Hurts Passes for 1+ Yard!

It may not be the Big Game matchup you wanted, Ohio bettors.

But you can still win big on SB57!

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Both Mahomes and Hurts are averaging 150+ passing yards per game in the playoffs so far.

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Promoguy: How to Bet DraftKings’ Early Win NBA Promotion for Tuesday

DraftKings has announced it will bring back its early win promotion, this time targeting the NBA. Just opt-in to the promo and if the team you bet on the moneyline goes up 10 points or more at any point in the game, your bet cashes. If they don’t go up 10 but win the game anyway, you still win your bet.

The promo is expected to run every day for the rest of the season — or until it gets pulled. You get one bet per day and it’s available for new and existing users.

When DraftKings had the promotion available for the NFL earlier this season, I made picks on every game and used a similar strategy as I do for the NBA.

A $100 per game bettor would have been up a profit of $1,050 for a total of $3,000 risked. That’s an ROI of 35%.

This promotion was also live for Game 1 of the 2022 NBA Finals, in which our bet won.

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Here’s how the promotion works for this year:

  • Place one (1) pre-game moneyline bet per day and if the team you choose leads by 10 points or more at any time in the game, your bet wins
  • Bet will be settled as a winner when your team goes up 10 points
  • If your team never goes up by 10 points, you can still win your bet. In that event, regular moneyline rules go into effect
  • You must attach the token to your wager in order to apply the promotion
  • VIP bettors or those with Diamond status have maximum wagers of $500. Others have max bets of $200, $100 or $50

The general principles?

  1. Wager on underdogs.
  2. Target games with high over/unders. Games with more points scored have a positive correlation with teams blowing 10-point leads. Logic backs up the numbers as 10-point leads are easier to obtain, and easier to come back from, when a game is very high scoring vs low scoring.
  3. Pick moneylines that are better priced than other sportsbooks.
  4. The max bet for some is $200 but I don’t recommend going more than 1 unit, whatever that is for you. I explained more on Twitter.

Tuesday, Jan. 31

The Hornets fit my criteria above — a big underdog with what the betting market thinks will be the highest-scoring game on the board.

The Hornets are +410 at DraftKings against the Bucks in Milwaukee, with the total at 244.5.

Pick: Hornets +410

Monday, Jan. 30

For Wizards vs. Spurs, those philosophies apply to the Spurs’ moneyline at a price of +180.

The over/under of 240 is the second-highest on the docket tonight. Its price is just about the best on the market, behind a +185 clip at BallyBet.

Overall, this pick has a 49% win probability and has 38% in total expected value.

Pick: Spurs +180

NBA Odds, Picks, Predictions | Hawks vs Blazers Betting Preview

Hawks vs. Trail Blazers-odds-pick-prediction-preview-nba-january 30-2023

Hawks vs. Trail Blazers Odds

Hawks Odds +2
Trail Blazers Odds -2
Over/Under 236
Time 10 p.m. ET
TV NBA TV
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Two of the Association’s most enigmatic teams will meet in Portland on Monday night as the 25-25 Atlanta Hawks head to the City of Roses to take on the 23-26 Trailblazers.

There are several question marks for this game as Trae Young is questionable for the game for the Hawks, while Josh Hart and Jusuf Nurkic are questionable for the Blazers.

These teams have been incredibly hard to get a read on this season, seemingly zagging every time a zig is expected and vice versa.

Let’s dive in, though, and see if we can find an edge to bet.
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Atlanta Hawks

This is game one of a five-game road trip for the Atlanta Hawks, who are 12-14 overall and just 11-15 against the spread away from home this season.

The Hawks have dropped three of their past four, but won five straight prior to this dip. That’s been the story with Atlanta all season. Every time the Hawks seem to start clicking, things turn sideways a bit, and they seem to stall out before they can climb much further in the standings.

Young has been putting up excellent numbers, even in the losses, but the impact just isn’t there right now, in part because of how much he gives away on the other end. Atlanta relies heavily on pick and rolls from its backcourt, but lacks the shooters on the wings to really make teams pay for over-focusing on the point of attack. (Would be nice to have a player like Kevin Huerter, huh?)

The Hawks defense has plenty of holes, especially in the paint, but they have done well limiting opponents from 3. Atlanta allows the sixth-fewest opponent points per game from deep, thanks in large part to a strong field goal defense from beyond the arc. That’s a good fit to slow down Portland, who ranks seventh in the league in 3-point field goal percentage and is in the top 10 in the league in points from 3 per 100 possessions.
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Portland Trail Blazers

If the Hawks have been hard to solve, the Trail Blazers have been truly impossible. The team got off to a very fast start, despite not having its full rotation intact, and won nine of its first 12 games.

To the befuddlement of every NBA bettor, as the season has transpired, and Portland has actually added a lot of those pieces back into the rotation, the Trail Blazers have seemingly lacked the ability to live up to their potential. They sit near the bottom of the west and have underperformed their Pythagorean record despite a veteran-heavy team with one of the best crunch-time killers in league history.

The offense has often been central to Portland’s problems, with the over returning a dismal -12.2% ROI this season. On the flip side, betting Portland’s unders has returned a 3.3% ROI so far.

While we’re mentioning the under, it’s worth noting that the Blazers, despite their backcourt not exactly having the best defensive reputation, are among the best teams in the league at defending the pick and roll. As noted above, the Hawks are heavily reliant on that play type, giving us another edge to the under.
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Hawks-Trail Blazers Pick

As you can probably tell, betting either side in this game terrifies me. My gut (and my number) likes Portland -2 by a point or two, but the Trail Blazers have proven too inconsistent for my backing.

On the flip side, there isn’t much to scare me off the under. I have this total at 232, and FanDuel opened at 236. If Young is out I love this number, but even if he plays, I’d bet it at that 236 total. If Young is out, which would hurt the Hawks offense greatly and help their defense almost as much, I’d take this down to 230.

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WTA Lyon Tennis Odds, Picks: Expert Predictions For Garcia vs Martincova, Blinkova vs Andreeva (Jan. 30)

It’s been an exciting start to WTA Lyon, and the action continues on Tuesday with Garcia vs Martincova and Blinkova vs Andreeva.

I’ve found betting value on the two matches, and will dive into them below.

Read on for Lyon tennis odds and picks.

Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.

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Anna Blinkova (-178) vs. Erika Andreeva (+132)

5:30 a.m. ET

Anna Blinkova made the semifinals of Hobart during the Australian swing, but fell 4-6, 6-3, 2-6 to Madison Keys in the first round of the Australian Open. She won just 41% of her service points against Keys and was broken nine times. However, the Russian won 52% of her return points, breaking on eight occasions.

Blinkova won the Transylvania Open last season on indoor hard courts and will enjoy the conditions in Lyon. In her career, Blinkova is 170-108 on hard courts, including a 28-15 record last season. Her serve is not a strength, but she is a strong baseline player. Blinkova balances offense and defense nicely, playing with controlled aggression when given the opportunity to do so. The Russian also plays with consistent depth and moves well.

Erika Andreeva qualified for Lyon, defeating a wayward Diane Parry 6-4, 6-3 in the final qualifying round. Andreeva won 74% of her service points and wasn’t broken all match.

She started the season 3-3 before her Lyon qualifying campaign. The Russian is 40-21 as a professional on hard courts, which encompasses a 13-9 record last year. Andreeva is solid from the baseline, has a high tennis IQ and gets good depth on her groundstrokes. But, her power game is lacking.

Andreeva was not impressive to start the season, as she wasn’t in control of her game. And while she looked better in Lyon qualifying, the match against Parry was more about the Frenchwoman’s low level than anything else.

Blinkova has more power than Andreeva, while also having the ability to match her in consistency. She can hang with Andreeva in long rallies and utilize her improving controlled aggression to put away Andreeva, whereas Andreeva’s ability to create offense is less developed.

When looking at Elo ratings, Blinkova’s overall Elo is 210.7 points higher than Andreeva’s, while her hard-court Elo is 210.2 points higher.

Pick: Blinkova -2.5 games (-118 via FanDuel)

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Caroline Garcia (-800) vs. Tereza Martincova (+470)

11:30 a.m. ET

Caroline Garcia didn’t meet expectations at the Australian Open, losing to Magda Linette 6-7(3), 4-6 in the fourth round. While Garcia won 73% of her first serves, she only put 49% of them into play, and won just 39% of her second serves.

She had an incredible 2022 season, going 46-20 including a 25-14 hard-court record. This was capped off with the Frenchwoman winning the WTA Finals on indoor hard courts. When she’s playing well, Garcia can overwhelm her opponents with her serve and aggressive groundstrokes, particularly her forehand.

However, Garcia has been more hit-or-miss in 2023, often rushing points and trying to hit winners in situations where it wasn’t the best option.

Tereza Martincova had a rough draw at the Australian Open, falling to eventual champion Aryna Sabalenka 1-6, 4-6 in the first round. Martincova struggled against Sabalenka’s relentless attack, winning just 53% of her service points and 29% of her return points. But, anyone taking on Sabalenka in Melbourne was bound to struggle.

The loss to Sabalenka puts Martincova at 2-3 on the season. However, Martincova is historically a strong hard-court player, going 212-154 on hard in her career. She hits her spots on serve and absorbs pace well. The Czech is solid from the baseline, while not letting her opponents push her around too much.

Garcia is still a deserved favorite in this match, as she has the much better serve, significantly more power from the baseline and is playing at home.

But, she has not been the same player this season as she was in 2022, and the line doesn’t reflect this. The Frenchwoman still hits some spectacular, aggressive shots, but she has shown less patience on the court and has increasingly been spraying unforced errors from the baseline.

Martincova is consistent and is strong at absorbing pace, which will force Garcia to play extra balls. Garcia will overhit and keep this match closer than expected.

Pick: Martincova +5.5 games (-130 via FanDuel)

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Chiefs vs Eagles Super Bowl Odds: Philly Favored Against Opening Spread

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Chiefs vs Eagles Odds

Date: Sunday, Feb. 12
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
Channel: FOX
Chiefs Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-105
49.5
+108
Eagles Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-115
49.5
-126
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

We have Chiefs vs Eagles odds for the Super Bowl in 2023 — and in just over 12 hours, we’ve already seen significant line movement, with Philadelphia going from opening underdogs to somewhat comfortably favored against the spread.

First, FanDuel had Chiefs -1.5 on the board, but while Patrick Mahomes was still on stage with Jim Nantz, there was a big shift to Eagles -1.5. At most sportsbooks, the line has settled higher, at -2. FanDuel is the only major online book to still have Eagles -1.5, as of Monday at 5:45 p.m. ET.

Kansas City is back after a one-year absence from the Super Bowl, having lost the Bengals in last year’s AFC Championship Game. The Eagles, meanwhile, are back for the first time in five seasons.

The Chiefs were without key playmakers but withstood a second-half charge from the Bengals to hold on and win the AFC Championship Game. The Eagles had to take down a 49ers offense that played a large portion of the NFC Championship Game without a quarterback who could throw.

Get a full game preview for both teams below and access to the latest Super Bowl odds here.

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Chiefs vs. Eagles Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Chiefs and Eagles match up statistically:

Chiefs vs. Eagles DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 1 6
Pass DVOA 1 1
Rush DVOA 9 21
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 3 17
Pass DVOA 9 20
Rush DVOA 1 15

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Chiefs

No Tyreek Hill, no problem.

The Chiefs had the No. 1 offense in the NFL during the regular season, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. Kansas City is first in Weighted DVOA and Pass DVOA, and a strong ninth in Rush DVOA.

Mahomes is the favorite to win his second MVP after improving on most statistics during the regular season. He had a higher completion percentage, more pass yards, higher yards-per-attempt average, more touchdowns and fewer interceptions.

That unit is still what carries Kansas City, which ranked 17th in Defensive DVOA this season, 20th against the pass and 15th against the run. Kansas City allowed more than 20 points just once in its previous four games before facing Cincinnati.

The Chiefs enter the Super Bowl on a seven-game winning streak. Their final five regular-season wins included just one against a playoff team, but it’s not their fault the Broncos and Raiders were so bad.


Bet the Super Bowl With 1 Click at FanDuel


Eagles

The Eagles have been the class of the NFC since Week 1.

Philadelphia has three losses this season, but only one came when Jalen Hurts was starting at quarterback.

The Eagles were one of three teams to rank in the top six of Football Outsiders’ Overall, Offensive and Defensive DVOAs. The other two were the Bills and 49ers, who Philly beat in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday.

Philadelphia has made its living on offense through its run game, which has been led by Miles Sanders and Hurts. The RB-QB duo combined for 2,029 rushing yards during the regular season and scored 24 touchdowns on the ground.

The Eagles ran for 268 yards in the Divisional Round against the Giants, with Kenneth Gainwell leading the way with 112 rushing yards on 12 carries and Sanders gaining 90. Philadelphia followed that up with 148 rushing yards against the 49ers.

Defensively, Philadelphia thrives against the pass. The Eagles defense was first during the regular season in Pass DVOA, but 21st against the run. Cornerbacks Darius Slay and James Bradberry power a very impressive pass defense, as do the likes of Fletcher Cox and Hassan Reddick on the defensive line.

Betting Stats

Chiefs

Kansas City has won plenty of games outright, but it’s only 7-12 this season against the spread. The Chiefs are also 8-11 to the over.

Eagles

The Eagles are 10-9 ATS this season. They were 0-2 in the two games that saw Gardner Minshew start at quarterback, so Hurts is 10-7 (ATS) and 16-1 straight-up.

Philadelphia is right down the middle at 10-9 to the over this season.

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NBA Player Props Betting Forecast: Navigating Injuries, Potential Trade Scenarios

As the trade deadline of Feb. 9 approaches, NBA teams may be even more cautious with their potential trade chips leading into the deadline. While we anxiously await some news, our Matt Moore broke down the buyers, sellers and some of the league’s biggest rumors here.

Let’s dive into this week’s NBA player props betting forecast.

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NBA Player Props Forecast

The Bigs Down in Memphis

Schedule: Wed. vs. Trail Blazers | Thu. at Cavaliers | Sun. vs. Raptors

Steven Adams (knee) was diagnosed with a sprained PCL in his right knee and will miss somewhere between two and four more weeks. This has opened up the Grizzlies‘ rotations a bit in the front court. The players who naturally receive the biggest boost to their usage are Jaren Jackson Jr, Brandon Clarke, and Xavier Tillman.

There isn’t much more we can say about JJJ. He’s been a monster this season but he does see a few more minutes at center if the Grizzlies are trying to play smaller, and he records 19.1 ppg without Adams compared to 15.8 with him. And yes, his blocks remain at an absurd 3.1 per game with or without Adams.

Clarke and Tillman see their minutes balloon without Adams, but Clarke has been the more consistent performer. He averages 12.6 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 1.7 assists in 24.8 minutes without Adams compared to Tillman who averages 6.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 1.6 assists in 21.6 minutes per game.

These averages do not tell the whole story though — there are particular matchups where one is more valuable than the other. Clarke is a bit faster than Tillman whereas Tillman has about 30 pounds on Clarke.

Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Brandon Clarke #15, Ja Morant #12 and Xavier Tillman Sr. #2 of the Memphis Grizzlies.

Clarke is a bit more valuable on a nightly basis because of his speed and quickness against smaller lineups with Jackson generally being able to play center. However, Tillman has found success in matchups with more traditional bruising centers where the Grizzlies may not want to expose Jackson to the potential of foul trouble.

Tillman played his biggest minutes against the Indiana Pacers, Sacramento Kings, Atlanta Hawks, and Utah Jazz (Clarke did not play vs the Jazz) — this week the Grizzlies take on the Portland Trail Blazers, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Toronto Raptors.

In those four matchups where Tillman was more heavily utilized: 27 minutes, 9.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.75 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. I think Tillman should see more run against the Blazers and Cavaliers.

The Blazers rely on Jusuf Nurkic who has given Jackson foul trouble in the past (in nine career matchups JJJ averages 4.6 fouls), and the Cavaliers lean on a two-big lineup of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen.

Tillman’s lines populate very close to tip, but his rebounds line was 4.5 against the Pacers on Sunday, and that’s a prop I want to target on Wednesday against the Blazers and Thursday against the Cavaliers.


OG Anunoby’s Trade Saga

Schedule: Mon. at Suns | Wed. at Jazz | Fri. at Rockets | Sun. at Grizzlies

OG Anunoby has been ruled out of Monday’s matchup against the Phoenix Suns due to a wrist injury. Without Anunoby in the lineup, Precious Achiuwa has started and he had a tremendous game on Saturday with 27 points and 13 rebounds in 33.4 minutes against the Trail Blazers.

Matt Moore wrote about the sky-high asking price for Anunoby and it is important to remember that anyone joining the Raptors or leaving it due to trade will see a significant bump or decline in their statistical output.

Head coach Nick Nurse plays his starters at some of the highest minutes per game in the league, and from a raw output perspective, leaving Toronto may hurt Anunoby’s counting stats if he does not average 35.2 minutes per game in a new uniform.

Cole Burston/Getty Images. Pictured: O.G. Anunoby #3 of the Toronto Raptors.

Due to Anunoby’s injury, we are getting an idea of what life may be like without him in Toronto. The players that generally have seen the greatest upticks are Precious Achiuwa, Scottie Barnes, and Fred VanVleet.

While it’s possible VanVleet gets moved at the deadline, he has seen his scoring average jump to 26.5 points in six games without Anunoby while taking about three more shots per game.

Barnes sees his minutes increase up to 37.9 per game and his role shifts a bit as his points increase to 19.7 per game while his rebounds drop from 7.3 to 5.7. He takes a few more shots but also gets to the free-throw line at an increased rate.

Both Barnes and VanVleet have exceeded their listed points line tonight of 16.5 and 19.5 in five of his six games without Anunoby. While we do not have lines for Achiuwa yet, they were last set at 15.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, and Double Double (+240). I’d look to target his rebounds tonight.


Check out our NBA props page for daily player props lines and projections.


Navigating the Trade Market and Props

Not all trade destinations are created equal. While there are so many rumors it is difficult to get ahead of all of the potential implications there are certain signals we can take to determine future value.

The Raptors and New York Knicks are both notorious for playing their starters obscene minutes with a short rotation. A trade to either of these teams likely signifies an uptick in raw counting stats just due to the sheer volume of minutes played.

Pace is another valuable indicator. Take Rui Hachimura and his trade to the Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers play at the second-fastest Pace in the league compared to the Washington Wizards who rank 18th in Pace.

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Rui Hachimura #28 of the Los Angeles Lakers.

More possessions means greater opportunity — couple this with the rest potential of LeBron James and Anthony Davis (who both are out on Monday), and this offers a great opportunity for Hachimura to see an uptick in his counting stats. He should see at least 25 minutes Monday and I’m looking to bet on his points. I’ll log that in the Action App if I find value.

On the flip side, some teams that would be tough to get sent to from a prop perspective are the Dallas Mavericks and the L.A. Clippers. Both teams are targeting some upgrades; however, they both are bottom six in Pace.

Additionally, they have players that command extremely high Usage rates in Luka Doncic, Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George. It will be tough for anyone to join those rotations and produce at a comparable level to their previous team.

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NCAAB Betting Preview for Virginia vs Syracuse

Our college basketball odds, picks and prediction for Virginia vs Syracuse on Monday January 30 will likely feature a heavy dose of Joseph Girard, pictured here celebrating a recent basket for Syracuse.

Virginia vs Syracuse Odds

Monday, Jan. 30
7 p.m. ET
ESPN
Virginia Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-5.5
-102
132.5
-115o / -105u
-220
Syracuse Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+5.5
-120
132.5
-115o / -105u
+180
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

The Virginia Cavaliers will continue to chase down Clemson at the top of the ACC Standings as they travel to New York to take on a Syracuse team having an up and down year.

Virginia has put together a six game winning streak in ACC play putting them two games back of a 10-1 Clemson team. Senior Armaan Franklin has driven the Cavaliers offense during this stretch, averaging 17.7 points per game.

On the other side, Syracuse is looking to bounce-back from two losses in a row to North Carolina and Virginia Tech.

In the first meeting between these two, Virginia torched the Orange from deep shooting 46% from the perimeter for a total of 12 made threes.

To find out if this offensive production will continue for Virginia, let’s take a look at the odds and make a prediction for Virginia vs. Syracuse.


Virginia Cavaliers

The Virginia Cavaliers continue to roll through the ACC on the back of their methodical offense and elite defensive production. Virginia ranks inside the top-25 in adjusted efficiency on both ends of the court.

On the offensive end, the Cavaliers have been catalyzed by their ability to connect from the perimeter. Virginia has the 21st highest 3-point percentage in the county, connecting on 38.2% of their outside shots.

This outside shooting was put on full display in their first matchup with a Syracuse zone defense allowing 40.7% of their opponents points to come from beyond the arc. The Cavaliers poured in 12 3-pointers on their way to a seven point victory.

In this second matchup, I expect these outside shooting numbers to regress. Overall, Syracuse is only allowing teams to shoot 34.6% from the 3-point line, a 6.1% difference from what Virginia was able to produce in the first meeting.

Virginia’s first meeting with the Orange was a perfect bounce-back spot, as the Cavaliers had just lost on the road to Pittsburgh the night before. That same level of urgency will not be there when they travel to Syracuse.

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Syracuse Orange

Syracuse’s offense has been predicated on taking care of the basketball and finding high percentage shots. The Orange have a steal percentage of just 6.3%, the 13th lowest rate in the country and an effective field-goal percentage of 52.3%.

Again, this is an area I look for the Orange to progress from their first matchup with Virginia. Syracuse had 16 total turnovers in the first meeting, 4.3 above their season average.

Additionally, this is a Syracuse team which can expose Virginia in one of the few areas they have struggled defensively. The Cavaliers are giving up 35.7% of their points from beyond the arc by allowing teams to shoot 34.6% from this range.

Although Syracuse has not relied on their outside shooting to drive their offense, they have connected on 37.1% of their attempts from three-point range, the 39th highest rate in the country. If Virginia continues to give up open looks from 3, I expect Syracuse to take advantage.

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Virginia vs. Syracuse Betting Pick

Although Syracuse has not gotten the results they have wanted in ACC play, they still have been able to be competitive against the league’s best. Three of Syracuse’s five conference losses have come by four points or less. This includes games against Miami and North Carolina.

In the Orange’s first matchup with Virginia, they ran into a buzzsaw as the Cavaliers were looking to bounce back at home in a game that made head coach Tony Bennett the all-time wins leader in Virginia basketball history.

This time around, I expect Syracuse to continue their trend of keeping games close against superior competition.  The Orange will achieve this by capitalizing on the high percentage shots Virginia gives them from the perimeter, and taking care of the basketball.

All this being said, there is value in Syracuse as a home underdog in what likely be a low-scoring affair.

Pick: Syracuse +5 or Better

How to Bet DraftKings’ Early Win NBA Promotion: 3 Ways to Maximize Daily Winnings

DraftKings has announced it will bring back its early win promotion, this time targeting the NBA.

The promo is expected to run every day for the rest of the season — or until it gets pulled.

When DraftKings had the promotion available for the NFL earlier this season, I made picks on every game.

A $100 per game bettor would have been up a profit of $1,050 for a total of $3,000 risked. That’s an ROI of 35%.

This promotion was also live for Game 1 of the 2022 NBA Finals, in which our bet won as well.

Here’s how the promotion works for this year:

  • Place one (1) pre-game moneyline bet per day and if the team you choose leads by 10 points or more at any time in the game, your bet wins
  • Bet will be settled as a winner when your team goes up 10 points
  • If your team never goes up by 10 points, you can still win your bet. In that event, regular moneyline rules go into effect
  • You must attach the token to your wager in order to apply the promotion
  • VIP bettors or those with Diamond status have maximum wagers of $500. Others have max bets of $200, $100 or $50

The general principles?

  1. Wager on underdogs as i went into last year and you can check out the math behind it here (can you add link to the tweet)
  2. Target games with high over/unders – the more points scored in a game the more likely there is to have been a 10 point comeback in the game as a 10 point lead means less when more points are scored. Statistically, the numbers back this up as there is a positive correlation between points scored in a game and likelihood of a 10 point comeback.
  3. Pick moneylines that are better priced than other sportsbooks

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For point one, the worse a team is, the more positive expected value this promotion provides.

In the NFL, teams below .500 saw an increase in win probability of roughly 8.4% as a result of this promotion. Meanwhile, teams .500 and above only saw a 5.5% probability bump.

28 out of the 30 NFL games we targeted were bets on the underdog.

For point two: games with more points are positively correlated with blown 10 point leads. When more points are scored, lead changes are abundant and scores are fluid. Historical data indicates as such.

For point three: finding good prices relative to other books is paramount to maximizing expected value. While this point isn’t as important as the other two, when all things are equal, I may defer to the better priced pick on account of this principle.

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Monday NBA Prop Picks, Best Bets For Anthony Edwards, Stephen Curry, Chris Paul

Last week went very well as the player props I shared on The Action Network went 5-2. Tonight, there is an eight game NBA slate, offering plenty of opportunities to continue the momentum and hopefully sweep.

Tonight, I am looking at Anthony Edwards. He scored 34 points and pulled down 10 rebounds on Saturday night against Sacramento. He gets the Kings tonight and I am expecting another big performance as the Timberwolves look to keep pace in the West.

Stephen Curry has had some memorable moments throughout his career in Oklahoma City. His Warriors enter tonight’s action in sixth place in the West and a game above Oklahoma City. A big scoring night from Curry could help the Warriors stay in front.

The Phoenix Suns are also battling for playoff positioning in the West and enter play as the ninth seed. The Suns will host the Toronto Raptors, who have struggled defending point guards of late. Chris Paul will look to take advantage.

Let’s dive into Monday’s NBA player props.

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NBA Player Props & Picks

Anthony Edwards Over 5.5 Rebounds (-115)

Spread Timberwolves -1
Time | TV 8 p.m. ET | NBA Leagues Pass
Best Line FanDuel

Anthony Edwards is one of the most explosive leapers in the NBA so it is not a surprise that he is a plus rebounder as well. Edwards is averaging 6.1 rebounds this season and ranks seventh in the league among guards.

His season average is roughly on par with his last 10 games in which he is averaging 6.2 rebounds per game. He has recorded six rebounds in seven games in that stretch and finished with five in another.

Edwards gets the Sacramento Kings tonight, who present a tough matchup on paper. The Kings allow the sixth fewest rebounds per game in the league. However, that did not stop Edwards from pulling down 10 rebounds against the Kings on Saturday night. Additionally, Edwards may be the pivot for targeting Timberwolves rebounding props in this matchup.

Center Rudy Gobert leads Minnesota with 11.7 rebounds per game, however he will have to contend with another elite rebounder in Domantas Sabonis. It is worth noting that Gobert won that matchup on Saturday, finishing with 14 rebounds while Sabonis had 10.

Meanwhile, the Kings perimeter quintet of Kevin Huerter, Keegan Murray, Harrison Barnes, Malik Monk, and Davion Mitchell combine to average 16.4 rebounds per game. Edwards could also benefit from a few long rebounds against a Kings team that attempts nearly 37 3s per game.

Minnesota may be without Gobert tonight as he currently listed as questionable on the injury report. If he is ruled out, Minnesota will need Edwards to hit the glass a bit more. However, an average night from him will clear this line.


Stephen Curry Over 27.5 Points (-111)

Spread Warriors -4
Time | TV 8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Best Line FanDuel

Stephen Curry needed a few games to regain his legs after returning from a shoulder injury that kept him out of the lineup for nearly a month. In his first three games since he returned to the lineup, he averaged 19.6 points per game. Since, he is averaging 33 points per game in his last five games. He has scored 28 points in four of those games and finished with 26 in the other.

Curry’s last five games are much more in line with his season average of 29.5 points per game. Tonight, Curry has an excellent matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder. In their last four games, Oklahoma City has allowed De’Aaron Fox, Jamal Murray, Trae Young, DeJounte Murray, and Darius Garland to go over their point lines. Young and Garland both scored over 30 points.

Oklahoma City ranks 17th in the league with 12.5 3s allowed per game. It has not faced Curry this season, but that should be music to the ears of the greatest shooter the league has ever seen. The Thunder also allow the second most free throws per game. Curry averages 5.4 free throws per game (six this month) and is shooting 91.8% percent from the foul line.

This should also be a fast-paced game with the Warriors ranking first in pace while Oklahoma City ranks fourth. The Warriors defense has also struggled on the road and it will have to stop Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for OKC. Curry may have to keep pace with him for the Warriors to pull out the win. Curry and Gilgeous-Alexander to score 35 points each is +830 on FanDuel.


Chris Paul Over 17.5 Points (-111)

Spread Suns -2
Time | TV 9 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Best Line FanDuel

It was a slow start to the season for Chris Paul as he averaged under 10 points per game through his first 10 games this season. However, with Devin Booker out of the lineup, the Suns have needed Paul to up his scoring.

Paul recently returned to the lineup after battling a hip injury of his own. Since, he has scored 18 points in three of his last four games. He has scored 20 points in six of his of last nine games and is averaging 18.8 points per game in that span.

One of those 20-point games came against the Raptors and tonight Paul gets them again in Phoenix. Per props.cash, Toronto is 24th in point guard defense. They are 26th in points allowed to point guards over the last 15 games. In their last nine games, the Raptors have allowed six of nine point guards to go over their points lines. All but De’Aaron Fox scored 20 points.

The Raptors are 28th in both field goal percentage defense and 3-point field goal percentage defense. In his last nine games, Paul is shooting 52% on 13 attempts per game. At times, Paul can be a reluctant 3-point shooter- he just averaged 3.1 3-point attempts last season.

However, he is attempting nearly five per game over his last nine games and shooting nearly 47% from deep. Given Paul’s recent form and his matchup against the Raptors, I expect him to score 18 on Monday night.

What is QuickSlip?

QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.

 


Magic vs. 76ers Odds & Picks: The Must-Bet Early Win DraftKings Promo for Monday

Magic Odds +9
76ers Odds -9
Moneyline +310 | -380
Over/Under 229.5
Time 7 p.m. ET
TV NBA League Pass
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

DraftKings has blessed us with a NBA Early Win Promo. The gist of the promo is you need to place a pre-game moneyline bet on a team and if they go up by 10 points at any time then your moneyline wager gets paid as a winner.

Here are the terms in a bit more detail via DraftKings:

  • Place a pre-game, paid moneyline bet and if the team you choose leads by at least 10 points at any time in the game, your bet wins
  • Bet will be settled as a winner when your team goes up 10 points
  • You must select the Early Win token from your bet slip before placing your moneyline bet to apply the promotion
  • Max Wager: $200
  • If the team you place your moneyline bet on never leads by 10+ points, the bet will be settled in accordance with the game outcome

(Note: VIP bettors or those with Diamond status at the sportsbook could have maximum wagers of $500.)

I think it is much more profitable to take underdogs for this type of promotion. While it may be more “likely” for a favorite to go up by 10 at any point during the game, your ROI will generally be less than if an underdog jumps out to a 10 point lead or even wins outright less frequently.

When I look at the board tonight, there are a few underdogs that stand out to me, namely, the Orlando Magic and the Los Angeles Lakers. I think both spreads are inflated and I’ve bet on both teams at +9.5; however, I think the Magic are the play here for a number of reasons.

Joel Embiid is questionable (foot) for tonight’s game and the Philadelphia 76ers are coming off an emotional win against Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets on Saturday. Embiid played his heart out during that game, and now Philly gets a chance to rest him tonight prior to another matchup with the Magic on Wednesday.

Additionally, the Philadelphia Eagles just clinched a trip to the Super Bowl, and you know who was celebrating on the sideline and with the team? Yes, the 76ers.

Situationally, it’s a bad spot.

Let’s dive into the on-the-court cap. The Magic have the length and athleticism to be a thorn in the side of teams like the 76ers.

Fun Fact: Their projected starting lineup of Markelle Fultz, Gary Harris, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, and Wendell Carter Jr. has played 356 possessions together — the Magic have a +9.9 Point differential in those possessions while scoring a whopping 125.8 points per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass.

They’ve been one of the best teams in the league in the first quarter against the spread (one of the best full game ATS dogs 26-16-1, too) and I think they have a chance to get off to a hot start and cash this early.

Pick: Magic ML +310

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3 Most Popular Super Bowl Player Props As of Now: Travis Kelce, Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders Lead Way

3-most-popular-super-bowl-player-props-travis-kelce-jalen-hurts-miles-sanders-right-now

It’s early, but the public is all over these three player props for Super Bowl LVII: Chiefs vs. Eagles.

Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce leads the charge with the most popular player prop of the day in a game in which he’ll face off against his brother: Eagles center Jason Kelce. It’s the first time in NFL history that two siblings will play one another in the big game.

Kelce had the most popular player prop for the AFC Championship Game, too.

Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has the second-most popular early prop, with running back Miles Sanders right behind him. Hurts — like Kelce — had the most popular player prop for the NFC Championship Game.

All of these picks target the anytime TD market — by far the most popular of all the player props.

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View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!

Super Bowl LVII: Chiefs vs. Eagles Most Popular NFL Player Prop Bets

  1. Travis Kelce to score a touchdown at anytime (-130)
  2. Jalen Hurts to score a touchdown at anytime (-110)
  3. Miles Sanders to score a touchdown at anytime (+125)

*Odds and data are according to PointsBet as of Monday night. 

Kelce has scored in each playoff game this season but was absent from the end zone in his last six regular season games. In all, he’s scored in nine of 19 games this year.

His market-best price is with BetRivers at a vig of -104. That implies the probability that he’ll enter the end zone is 51%.

Hurts, meanwhile, has been on a roll from the ground, scoring in six of his last eight contests, including five of his last six.

In all, he’s scored in 11 of 17 games played this year.

The Eagles QB’s best market price to score a rushing TD is Caesars at +119, an implied probability of 45.7%.

And Sanders scored in the NFC Championship Game but failed to do so in his five preceding games.

His best market price is also with Caesars at +140, implying the odds are roughly 43.5% that he scores a Super Bowl TD.

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Bet $20 on Kansas City-Philadelphia, Get $100 in Bonus Bets (Win or Lose!)

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BetMGM Bonus Code TOPACTION Acquires up to $1,000 in Bet Returns for Monday NBA

Monday’s NFL Championship hangover could only be remedied by placing your wagers on the evening’s selection of NBA action.  BetMGM bonus code TOPACTION is available for new bettors to score $1,000 in total value on their first bets.

In simpler terms, BetMGM is spotting any new users a bet of any amount up to $1,000. If it loses, they will reimburse users whatever they lost in bet credits.

Still need some more context? We’ll examine some suggested bets from our NBA betting experts below and discuss what to expect betting with this promotion at BetMGM.

How to Bet BetMGM’s Bonus Code

First, we broke down sportsbook promotions with a guide. There’s a lot out there, so this will help clarify.

Given the nature of this promotion, the closer to the $1,000 limit that we bet, the more value we’ll see.

Of anything to know about using promotion bets, it’s that the mathematically optimal strategy is betting plus-money. It’s tempting to take the spread or the total, but let’s get down to business on why you’ll want to look for something else in this instance.

Applying Your First Bet With BetMGM

We advise bettors using promotions to always wage on longshots i.e. +300, +500 etc.

You accrue more expected value this way. This term refers to the margin between the real odds of something happening and the market’s odds.

Take a coin toss for example: The fair odds of a coin toss are 50/50 or +100. Say you have +120 odds on heads — the EV would be (120-100) * .5. That’s $10 expected winnings on a $100 bet, or 10% EV.

100 of these 10% EV bets would bank $1,000 on those 100 bets.

Selecting a Longshot for Monday NBA:

There’s plenty of ways to juice up your line — whether that’s picking the underdog’s moneyline odds, creating a same game parlay or choosing a niche player prop.

The Washington Wizards (23-26) will bring its five-game win streak to the bottom-dwelling San Antonio Spurs Monday night. That’s been without the services of Washington’s leading man, Kristaps Porzingis. He is due to return Monday, giving the edge back to the Wizards for the tipoff.

The Spurs (14-36) have lost five straight and sport a slagging 9-18 home record this season. San Antonio’s record ATS isn’t much better. It’s covered three of the last five games, but is 23-26 overall. Keldon Johnson is a glimmer of a bright spot as the small forward has amassed 21.8 PPG and hit a three to force overtime against the Suns in the 118-128 loss on Saturday.

While Johnson is San Antonio’s only 20+ PPG player, the Wizards have two more key offensive contributors alongside Porzingis: Kyle Kuzma and Bradley Beal.

This is the first meeting between the two cross-conference opponents this season. BetMGM has this game set at a 5.5-point spread.

In seeking a wager that can maximize this opportunity, let’s keep away from the spread and take heed to what NBA First Basket listed as a prop pick to consider Monday evening:

Kristaps Porzingis (78% opening-tip win rate) is off the injury report and will face Jakob Poeltl (48% win rate) at center court on the opening tip.

These two haven’t faced off on an opening tip-off over the past two seasons, but I expect Washington to control the opening tip. The Wizards have scored first this season in 55% of games, while the Spurs have scored first in 48% of games.

Bradley Beal has scored the first team field goal in 48% of starts this season, while Daniel Gafford and Porzingis have each scored the first team field goal in 29% of starts.

The Spurs allow opposing shooting guards to score first in 32% of games this season (second highest rate in the league). This lines up well for Beal tonight, and he has attractive odds. I’m going to pair Beal with Porzingis thinking one of them will hit the first basket.

Let’s follow the notion of the ball getting to Beal’s hands early in this game. We’ll place the prop bet of him hitting the first field goal of the contest at +750 odds.

We can bet any amount up to $1,000, but we will draw a scenario where we bet the whole bag to show how it can pay dividends later.

A $1,000 wager would return an $8,500 payout if Beal does get the first bucket. But if not, we’d see our $1,000 back in bet credits.

How Do Bet Credits Work?

When betting with bet credits, we want to adopt the same strategy we used with the first bet on the house. We won’t keep the stake even if the bet wins, so the bigger lines will come in handy.

Bet credits will appear after the promotion bet settles.We’ll focus on something more mainstream that will allow us to enjoy the entire game.

Say we take $100 of the $1,000 we received back in bet credits (assuming if the Beal prop missed) and place it on the Pelicans to beat the Nuggets at +310 Tuesday.

Check out how the optics would look on this one:

Outcome Profits Total $
Pelicans win $310 $1,210 ($900 in free bets)
Pelicans lose $0 $900 (leftover free bets)

In the meantime, read why our staff likes the Magic to cover against the 76ers Monday plus a double double prop on Clint Capella. Or if you like the Lakers to keep pace with the Nets, Austin Wang provides reason as to why this could be a success.

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Here’s how to sign up at BetMGM. It should take just a few minutes.

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New users must be located in a state where BetMGM is active. It should be noted that you don’t have to live in Ohio to wager, you just have to be in the state at the time of activation and making a bet.

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South Dakota vs. Oral Roberts Monday College Basketball Odds, Best Bet: The Sharp Pick (Jan. 30)

south-dakota-vs-oral-roberts-monday-college-basketball-odds-best-bet-sharp-expert-pick-jan-24

South Dakota vs. Oral Roberts Odds, Best Bet

South Dakota Odds +14.5 (-104)
Oral Roberts Odds -14.5 (-118)
Over/Under 152.5
Date Monday, Jan. 30
Time 8 p.m. ET
Channel ESPN+

*Odds as of Monday night according to FanDuel.

The Action Network’s proprietary tracking data has indicated that there are sharp and big moneyed bettors all over the spread for South Dakota vs. Oral Roberts.

This game is decidedly random, but that’s good news for you, the reader.

These types of contests have far less efficient lines — that means there’s more value to glean. Sharp and big moneyed bettors have targeted these positive expected value bets with authority.

A solid 85% of the smart money is on one side of the spread.

We don’t recommend tailing sharp money as an alternative to investing — variance is a much sturdier constraint in sports gambling compared to the financial markets — but similar principles apply in regard to gains over a long time horizon.

South Dakota vs. Oral Roberts: The Sharp, Expert Pick 


The Action Network’s proprietary tracking data is indicating a ton of money on South Dakota’s spread for this 8 p.m. ET tip-off.

While 50% of the retail bettors are wagering on the Sooners to cover, about 85% of the smart money is. That 35% discrepancy indicates a sizable chunk of bettors are dropping big money on South Dakota to cover.

The best price on the market for this contest is with FanDuel at +14.5 (-104). That’s down from a market-high of +17.5 (-110) on account of sharp action.

Pick: South Dakota +14.5 (-104)

PRO Pick: South Dakota +14.5 (-104) or better

NCAAB Odds, Picks: Three Man Weave’s Monday Best Bets, Including Baylor vs. Texas, More

college basketball odds-best-bets-monday-picks-south dakota state vs kansas city-baylor vs texas

After the Big 12 flexed its muscles vs. the SEC over the weekend, the league will transition back to conference play on Monday night.

The Big 12 highlights a rather thin slate, but Jim Root of Three Man Weave has three value spots to target from a betting perspective.

Dive in below and get the top college basketball odds and best bets for Monday night.

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Monday’s Three Man Weave College Basketball Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Jim is targeting from Monday’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game
Time
Pick
8 p.m. ET
South Dakota State 1H +1
8 p.m. ET
Alcorn State +5.5
9 p.m. ET
Under 148
Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

South Dakota State vs. Kansas City

Monday, Jan. 30
8 p.m. ET
Jackrabbit Sports Network
South Dakota State 1H +1

By Jim Root

The Summit race may be nearly decided already, but that does not make certain regular season games less important.

South Dakota State and Kansas City are in a four-way battle for the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds in the Summit Tournament. Avoiding the Oral Roberts half of the bracket to delay playing the dominant powerhouse as long as possible would be significant.

The visiting Jackrabbits were the presumed runner-up in the preseason. Though they lost their two stars — Douglas Wilson and Baylor Scheierman — they returned plenty of production and added key pieces to replace them.

The actual season has been far more up and down — partially due to a brutal non-conference slate — but the upside remains.

Sophomore Zeke Mayo’s emergence has given hope that SDSU will realize that upside. He had some early hiccups while taking over more ball-handling duties, but he has been on fire the past five games, with 25.0 points, 5.6 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game.

With Mayo blossoming into a star, the Jackrabbits are more talented and experienced than Kansas City. The host Kangaroos are exceptionally young, ranking 338th nationally in D-I experience, per KenPom. Five freshmen play regularly.

Of note: the spot is difficult. This is South Dakota State’s third road game in five days (an unfortunate quirk due to rescheduling a game from Dec. 21).

Also, the Jackrabbits have been somewhat short-handed. Alex Arians, Charlie Easley and Luke Appel — three starter-caliber players — have missed recent games.

I remain steadfast in my belief that SDSU is the clear better team. The travel and injuries could hurt down the stretch, though. Consequently, I will take the Jackrabbits in the first half and hopefully eliminate the possibility of second-half exhaustion.

Pick: South Dakota State 1H +1 (Play to PK)

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QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.


Alcorn State vs. Grambling

Monday, Jan. 30
8 p.m. ET
Tigers All-Access
Alcorn State +5.5

By Jim Root

As usual, Monday offers an extensive extra board slate featuring the MEAC and the SWAC.

I have my sights set on Alcorn State, the runner-up in the preseason SWAC poll and last year’s regular-season champion.

Grambling State has earned the right to be a favorite here. A transfer-laden roster has stacked the Tigers with talent, specifically dominant forward Carte’are Gordon, a former top-50 recruit.

A spread of 5.5 is too many, though. Alcorn State has surged in league play after a hellish non-conference slate that saw the Braves not play a single home game.

That context helps explain why I believe Alcorn State is still somewhat undervalued.

The most important matchup factor is whether the Braves can handle — or at least limit — Gordon in the paint.

Alcorn lacks true size in the paint, but head coach Byron Smith’s scheme should shine. It’s a creative blend of pressure while remaining compact.

The Braves want to stress opposing ball-handlers while still eliminating paint touches. In a league that largely lacks perimeter shooting, surrendering a multitude of jump shots is quite clever.

Grambling is loath to take 3s, ranking 345th nationally in 3-point attempt rate. If Alcorn can force the Tigers to live on the perimeter, it will be a significant victory on the path to covering.

Another significant edge lies in free-throw shooting. Given both teams’ free-throw rates on both sides of the ball, this could be a free-throw contest. Alcorn is by far the more proficient squad, knocking down 70.7% of its free throws, compared to Grambling’s 63.6%.

In a close game, that could be the pivotal difference.

Pick: Alcorn State +5.5 (Play to +4)


Baylor vs. Texas

Monday, Jan. 30
9 p.m. ET
ESPN
Under 148

By Jim Root

There’s no rest for the weary in the brutal Big 12. After both playing huge games in the final SEC/Big 12 Challenge this weekend, Baylor and Texas must quickly turn around and meet for a crucial contest in the Big 12 title race.

Both teams still have a shot at the crown. Texas is in better shape, sitting in a three-way tie atop the league at 6-2. Baylor is a game back, but the Bears are rolling. They have won six straight games, and earning a victory in a difficult road game would vault them into the thick of the title picture.

The Bears’ recent surge has come from a surprising adjustment: slowing the game down. They have hit the brakes offensively in league play, averaging 19.5 seconds per possession, per KenPom. That’s a drastic drop from 17.5 seconds overall on the season.

Few teams in the entire country have seen such an extreme change. With perhaps the best backcourt in the country, Baylor has made the bet that it can outscore its foes in the half-court.

For its part, Texas has proven to be a pace-taker. Kansas State sped it up for an 82-possession game, while Iowa State, Oklahoma State and Tennessee all kept the tempo down at 66 possessions.

If Baylor wants this to be slow, it likely will be.

The concern is efficiency. Baylor has the best offense and worst defense in the league during Big 12 play. The Bears have been burned at the rim, and Texas can certainly score inside.

Some of that is built into this number already, though.

Given the edge I believe I have in pace, I’m willing to risk that efficiency will not totally explode.


Iowa State vs Texas Tech Odds, Picks: Red Raiders to Get First Big 12 Win

college-basketball-odds-picks-prediction-iowa-state-vs-texas-tech-monday-january-30

Iowa State vs. Texas Tech Odds

Monday, Jan. 30
9 p.m. ET
ESPN2
Iowa State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-1.5
-102
129.5
-110o / -110u
-114
Texas Tech Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+1.5
-120
129.5
-110o / -110u
-105
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

Big 12 play has gone completely differently for these teams.

Iowa State has been of the main surprises of the conference, sitting at 6-2 in the Big 12 standings and inside the top 15 in the country.

Texas Tech, on the other hand, is winless in league play and checks into Monday night’s contest with an 0-8 record.

Despite all of that, the Red Raiders enter this matchup fresh off a victory. Tech won in Baton Rouge on Saturday, beating LSU in the final edition of the SEC/Big 12 Challenge.

Meanwhile, the Cyclones ran into a buzzsaw at Missouri, falling 78-61 to the Tigers.

This will be the second matchup between these teams. Iowa State won the first game by 34 earlier this month in Ames.

Let’s discuss where the betting value lies in Lubbock.
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Iowa State Cyclones

Kansas State has dominated much of the conversation nationally and within the Big 12 as the surprise team of the year, and rightfully so. But the Cyclones should be right there with them.

T.J. Otzelberger has done a phenomenal job thus far in Ames and has once again used the transfer portal to build a deep and quality roster.

The Cyclones strength is their play on the defensive end. ISU ranks 10th in Ken Pom’s adjDE rankings and also check in at No. 1 in turnover % forced.

The Cyclones don’t let opponents move the ball from side to side in the half court, and Otzelberger has plenty of suffocating on-ball defenders.

In the first meeting against Tech, Iowa State held the Red Raiders to just 50 points and 36% shooting from the field.

On the other end of the floor, Gabe Kalscheur is a veteran guard who has hit numerous big shots for the Cyclones all season. He had 25, including going 5-for-6 from 3, in the January 10th meeting between these teams.

There’s no single superstar in this offense, but it’s been effective because anybody can step up on any given night.

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Texas Tech Red Raiders

Things have not gone according to plan for Mark Adams in his second year as the head man in Lubbock. And Injuries have been at the center of the problem.

Fardaws Aimaq, someone Adams was really counting on to be a big part of the offense, has been out for most of the season due to a leg injury.

Pop Isaacs has also missed time recently and his status for Monday night remains uncertain.

Tech is turning the ball over on more than 20% of its trips, which is outside the top 250 in the country.

The Red Raiders defense has kept it in most games all year, but the inability to get a critical bucket in crunch time has continued to plague them.

Kevin Obanor is one of the Texas Tech’s bright spots. The senior transfer from Oral Roberts is averaging over 15 points and six rebounds per game and is typically tasked with guarding the opposing teams’ best interior player.

Despite the trying times Tech finds itself in, Adams doesn’t seem to have lost the locker room.

Five of Texas Tech’s eight conference losses have come by seven points or less, so there should be some positive regression coming in the “luck” department.
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Iowa State vs. Texas Tech Betting Pick

I believe Monday night is the night Texas Tech finally breaks through and secures a conference victory. The Red Raiders have been close on numerous occasions, but haven’t quite been able to seal the deal.

Back home after a win over LSU, there should be a loud crowd inside United Supermarkets Arena. The Red Raider faithful may be unhappy with Mark Adams and company at the moment, but they are still going to show up in full force.

Regardless of the record, Texas Tech is a good defensive team and I don’t see Iowa State shooting the ball anywhere near as well as it did in the first matchup between these two.

Give me the Red Raiders to generate just enough to edge out the Cyclones and get off the schneid in the Big 12 in the process.

What is QuickSlip?

QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.


Baylor vs Texas Odds, Picks: How to Bet This Big 12 Affair

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Baylor vs Texas Odds

Monday, Jan. 30
9 p.m. ET
ESPN
Baylor Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+3.5
-106
147.5
-105o / -115u
+150
Texas Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-3.5
-114
147.5
-105o / -115u
-182
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

Fresh off a double-digit loss at the hands of Tennessee, Texas returns to the Moody Center looking for a bounce back win against red-hot Baylor.

Scott Drew’s squad has won six straight after losing the opening three games of Big 12 play. They most recently took down Arkansas in the Big 12/SEC Challenge, completing a second-half comeback in the 67-64 win.

The Moody Center will be rocking for what sets up to be the game of the night on Monday. Can Texas ride the home crowd to victory, or will Baylor continue its surge toward the top of the Big 12 standings? Find a pick and prediction for Baylor vs. Texas below.

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Baylor Bears

The Baylor Bears extended their win streak to six games on Saturday, completing a comeback against Arkansas in a three-point win. The Bears struggled at times with Arkansas’ defensive intensity, but they rode the storm, and foul trouble eventually led to Baylor’s 40-point second half.

Baylor is often a three-headed monster on offense. Keyonte George is the star and main shot creator, taking 31.4 percent of shot attempts while on the floor. He, LJ Cryer and Adam Flagler are the engine of this offense. They took 32 of Baylor’s 41 shots on Saturday against Arkansas.

Unlike Texas, Baylor doesn’t push transition at a high rate. The Bears prefer to get into halfcourt sets by using the pick and roll to open shooting lanes. They also frequently allow one of their trio of guards to run isolation, though this hasn’t come at an efficient pace (296th per ShotQuality).

Baylor’s offense has the second-best Offensive Efficiency Rating (120.1), per Kenpom, and has a high free throw rate. Despite a lack of consistent size — Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua remains out — the Bears are a top-10 offensive rebounding team.

One of the keys of Baylor’s comeback against Arkansas was Scott Drew switching to a zone for the majority of the second half. The Razorbacks were forced into uncomfortable shots and struggled with turnovers as opposed to the first half where they were the more physical and aggressive team.

Baylor’s defense has had its issues throughout this season. The Bears are a below-average transition defense and rank 227th defending 2-point field goals. While they force turnovers at a near-top 50 rate, their defensive aggression leads to foul trouble.

Opponents also have no issue creating second-chance opportunities. We saw that issue arise Saturday when Arkansas missed a 1-and-1 free throw with a few seconds left. The Razorbacks ended up getting a wide open 3 for the tie and overtime, but it didn’t fall.

If the Bears can limit transition opportunities and force the Longhorns into the halfcourt, there are few teams more dominant from a points per possession (PPP) perspective. They’re 10th, per ShotQuality, and that has led to their ability to defend the midrange (ninth), in isolation (18th) and the pick-and-roll (28th).

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Texas Longhorns

Texas looks to bounce back after struggling against Tennessee’s defensive intensity. The Longhorns’ interior defense melted, and the Vols shot 68.6% on 2-point field goals.

That’s very uncharacteristic of Texas and a byproduct of just how well-rounded Tennessee is. Zakai Zeigler picked Texas apart, and there was no stopping Olivier Nkamhoua (27 points on 12-of-15 shooting).

I wouldn’t panic with this veteran Texas team. The Longhorns have a run-and-gun offense that loves to attack the rim — and do so at the 13th-best rate, per ShotQuality. They rarely shoot from the perimeter, and they push transition at the fourth-highest rate in the country. Much of that stems from their defensive intensity and quick ability to convert turnovers into fastbreak opportunities.

Texas is 14th in 2-point offense as Tyrese Hunter is the only player in their nine-man lineup who shoots below 50% on 2s. This is a deep and athletic Longhorns squad that loves to apply pressure whenever possible.

Because of their athleticism, Texas often switches on defense without any issues. They remain the 33rd-best team on defending finishes at the rim and are the fourth-best transition defense from a PPP perspective, per ShotQuality. They’re above-average in just about every metric aside from catch and shoot 3s and do have some foul trouble issues due to their intensity.

While Texas pushes the pace, their defense often forces opponents late into the shot clock. It’s also important to note that the Horns are 12-1 at home; oftentimes their struggles happen away from the Moody Center.

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Baylor vs. Texas Betting Pick

I would monitor the line as early money has poured in on Baylor. However, I have faith in interim head coach Rodney Terry and the Longhorns at the Moody Center.

We saw what happened when Baylor dealt with the defensive pressure from Arkansas, and Texas can replicate that formula. The difference is Texas’ offense should find success and not break down on the offensive end.

The biggest edge lies in transition. Texas runs at the fourth-highest rate, draws a ton of fouls and attacks the rim with aggression. That’s the soft spot of this Baylor defense, all the way down at 180th in PPP out of the halfcourt, per ShotQuality.

This Texas defense will combat the isolation offense from Baylor’s three-headed monster and should limit the Bears down the stretch. It all comes down to Baylor’s 3-point success — they shoot 44.4% of their shots from the perimeter — but Texas’ defense is well-equipped there.

Baylor shoots off the dribble 3s at the 16th-highest rate, an area where Texas is 63rd in the country at defending.

Texas has only lost once at the Moody Center this year, and I expect that trend to continue on Monday night. I would watch the line and try to get Texas under -2 as the day progresses, but would back them to -3.

What is QuickSlip?

QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.


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  • Wager the bonus bets within 14 days

Let’s dive into a real example from Monday’s NBA slate.

Say you put $200 on the Lakers moneyline at +300. Here are the two ways it can go:

  • If the Lakers win, you profit $600 ($200 x 3.0) and keep the original $200 you bet. That’s $800 in cash you can now withdraw or continue betting.
  • If the Lakers lose, you get $200 back in bonus bets.

FanDuel’s Bonus Bets, Explained

OK, so how do you use bonus bets/bet credits?

If the Lakers lose, you’ll have $200 in bonus bets. Now let’s say you take your $200 in bonus bets and put it on the Chiefs +110 against the Eagles in the Super Bowl.

  • If the Chiefs win, you win $220 in cash ($200 x 1.1) but don’t keep the bonus bet itself. You’ll have $220 in cash off a $200 deposit, good for $20 in profit.
  • If the Chiefs lose, your bonus bet goes away and you’ll have nothing left in your account.

The optimal promo betting strategy says we should bet at plus-money, since you keep the winnings but not the stake. That’s why you won’t have a whole lot of profit on your bonus bets by betting point spreads because you’ll end up breaking even, as we just outline in that example.

That’s it! It’s a simple sign-up offer that any new bettor can take advantage of. It’s also less risk than FanDuel’s normal no-sweat first bet, though the total offer can amount to less.

The bonus bets can be used on any sport, though there are some odds restrictions. And they expire in 14 days, so be sure to use them quickly or else they’ll go away. If you enable notifications on the FanDuel app, they should alert you when the credits are about to expire.

FanDuel Sign Up

Here’s how to get started at FanDuel as a new user.

  1. Use this link if you’re currently located in Ohio, and remember, no FanDuel promo code is required (the link includes what you need!). If you’re in another state, you can sign up for FanDuel here.
  2. Enter all your real signup information. Even if you’re visiting a FanDuel state, use your real address, or else FanDuel can’t verify your identity. So if you live in Wisconsin but are in Illinois for the weekend, use all your real info. It’s perfectly legal to sign up, as long as you’re physically located in that state.
  3. Deposit using a bank account, credit card, or PayPal (minimum $10)
  4. Make your first bet of $5 or more to claim the FanDuel promotional offer.

Must be 21+ and present in OH. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. A Problem Gambling Helpline is available 24/7 at 1-800-589-9966 or texting 4HOPE to 741741.

Chiefs vs Eagles Super Bowl Early Reaction, Preview

chiefs vs eagles-super bowl-analysis-reaction-jason kelce-miles sanders

We’re going to hear a lot over the next few weeks about all the Super Bowl storylines  —  quarterback injuries, the Andy Reid Bowl and Kelce vs. Kelce. That last one may mostly seem like a cute story about a mom with a half-and-half jersey, but that matchup could be key.

We already know about Travis Kelce. The Chiefs need him more than ever with injuries to JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman and Kadarius Toney. Kelce appeared to be lining up at WR1 down the stretch of the AFC Championship Game, but the Eagles have been elite against opposing WR1s and tight ends. Patrick Mahomes is amazing, but even he needs some weapons.

I do wonder if Jason could end up being the more impactful Kelce.


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We just saw Chris Jones wreck Cincinnati’s game plan, constantly in the back field bothering Joe Burrow and getting the key sack on the Bengals’ final offensive play.

Jones is a deserving Defensive Player of the Year finalist, but Jason Kelce is the best center in the league, as good a matchup as you could want up the middle against Jones — not to mention the Eagles have the best offensive line in the league. We saw Dexter Lawrence wreck the Vikings in the Wild Card Round — right before Kelce mostly erased him the following week.

My early read is that this game will be won and lost in the trenches, and if that’s the case, the Eagles will be your Super Bowl 57 champions.

The Eagles’ defensive line led the league in pressure rate this season with a sack rate further ahead of second than No. 2 was ahead of No. 26. The Chiefs ranked 16th in pass protection and struggled to pass block the two times they played a team ranked in the top eight in pressure rate. Add that pressure to a less than 100% Mahomes, and it could really stymie Kansas City’s offense.

On the other side, Philadelphia has a deep, talented offensive line that’s been the bedrock of its team. That line can offset Kansas City’s pass pressure and create holes that will allow the Eagles’ No. 1 rushing attack to gash the Chiefs, dominate the clock and keep Mahomes where he’s not dangerous  – the sidelines.

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The Eagles’ run game is the one huge Super Bowl mismatch. If Philadelphia puts together three or four long sustained drives of around 12 plays and 70 yards, at eight or nine minutes each, the Eagles will win, maybe even dominate.

It’s early. We need to monitor the health of Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, plus those Chiefs receiver injuries.

Right now, this looks like team vs. individual. The Eagles are far better running the ball, at receiver, on both lines and in the secondary. The Chiefs have Mahomes. Will that be enough? It was against the Bengals.

I lean Eagles early, but I’m not running to place my bet. I can’t see this line getting to Philly -3 since money would pour in on Mahomes, but it could slide back toward Kansas City like it did against Cincy.

It’s gonna be a long  —  and fun  —  two weeks. Can’t wait.

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Home-Field Advantage For Every College Football Team in 2023

college football-home fiald advantage-2023-betting-against the spread

The year was 2013, and I had been assigned a client in Oswego, New York. I knew little about this Lake Ontario town other than it was the home of a nuclear power plant and a single Best Western for lodging.

As a kid who grew up in Arkansas, bragging about the horsepower on a snowblower while discussing a snow squall was completely foreign to my ears.

I embarked on a fortnight of 14-hour work days through 30 inches of snow while living in a fishing lodge thanks to the sold-out hotel.

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Pictured: Action Network’s Collin Wilson in Oswego, New York.

Oswego had the home-field advantage, and it dominated me all two weeks.

Home-field advantage in college football is similar to my travels from a lifetime ago. Weather can play a large factor, from September humidity in the south to whipping November winds in the north.

Reconstruction of stadium end zones can change sight lines or prevent gusts from torturing the special teams. A few programs are upgrading in order to draw more fans with the hope of persuading officials to make some favorable calls.

Texas A&M is adding two-dozen luxury suites in the south end zone at Kyle Field, while Clemson will build a new scoreboard worthy enough of an NFL stadium.

However, no team is going through a bigger change than Oregon State. Reser Stadium allowed fans on just one side of the stadium while the complex receives upgrades for the 2023 season.

The Beavers are an interesting study in terms of winning at home. No team in college football has covered more in its home stadium since 2020 than Oregon State.

Corvallis is the perfect storm of home-field elements, from the proximity of fans to the field to the travel route off Interstate 5.

Most analysts believe home-field advantage comes from crowd noise or elevation, but only one question is needed when assigning the home team additional points: How often are you beating oddsmakers?

The Action Network Power Ratings provide a starting point for handicapping college football games. With win totals and futures just around the corner, we’ll need updated home-field numbers to complete the equation.

As with previous seasons, updated home-field advantage derives from a PAE (points above expectation) with a base number of 2.5 points as the midpoint. Using a Taylor series with various weights on 10- and three-year samples, we can dissect whether each team overachieves or underachieves against expectations at home.

Here are the updated home-field advantage numbers that will be assigned for the 2023 season:


UFC Vegas 68: Updated Betting Lines for Lewis vs. Spivac, Da-un vs. Clark (Saturday, February 4)

Check out the UFC Vegas 68 odds, including the latest lines for the Derrick Lewis vs. Serghei Spivac main event.

After a weekend off, the UFC sets up the cage again this Saturday, Feb. 4. with the event, which is also dubbed UFC Fight Night 218 and UFC on ESPN+ 76.

UFC Vegas 68 takes place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, and it streams on ESPN+ at a special late start time of 10 p.m. ET ( 7 p.m. PT). The main card kicks off at 1 a.m. ET.

In the main event, heavyweights Derrick Lewis (26-10) and Serghei Spivac (15-3) will clash. The bout was rebooked after Lewis was forced out of their planned headliner back in November due to a fight-week illness.

Saturday’s 12-fight event also features four tournament finals in various weight classes. The tourneys are part of the second season of the “Road to UFC” reality series in Asia.

You can check out the full list of UFC Vegas 68 odds via Caesars for all of the fights on Saturday’s lineup below.

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UFC Vegas 68 Odds

Preliminary Card

  • 10 p.m. ET
  • ESPN+

Tatsuro Taira vs. Jesus Aguilar

Flyweight Bout Odds
Taira Odds -1100
Aguilar Odds +700
Over/under rounds TBA

Junyong Park vs. Denis Tiuliulin

Middleweight Bout Odds
Park Odds -200
Tiuliulin Odds +170
Over/under rounds TBA

Ji Yeon Kim vs. Mandy Bohm

Women’s Flyweight Bout Odds
Kim Odds -270
Bohm Odds +220
Over/under rounds TBA

SeungGuk Choi vs. HyunSung Park

Flyweight Bout (Road to UFC tourney final) Odds
Choi Odds +170
Park Odds -200
Over/under rounds TBA

Toshiomi Kazama vs. Rinya Nakamura

Bantamweight Bout (Road to UFC tourney final) Odds
Kazama Odds -420
Nakamura Odds +330
Over/under rounds TBA

JeongYeong Lee vs. Yi Zha

Featherweight Bout (Road to UFC tourney final) Odds
Lee Odds -240
Zha Odds +200
Over/under rounds TBA

Jeka Saragih vs. Anshul Jubli

Lightweight Bout (Road to UFC tourney final) Odds
Saragih Odds -110
Jubli Odds -110
Over/under rounds TBA

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Main Card

  • 1 a.m. ET
  • ESPN+

Yusaku Kinoshita vs. Adam Fugitt 

Welterweight Bout Odds
Kinoshita Odds -300
Fugitt Odds +240
Over/under rounds TBA

Dooho Choi vs. Kyle Nelson 

Featherweight Bout Odds
Choi Odds -190
Nelson Odds +160
Over/under rounds TBA

Marcin Tybura vs. Blagoy Ivanov

Heavyweight Bout Odds
Tybura Odds -155
Ivanov Odds +130
Over/under rounds TBA

Jung Da-un vs. Devin Clark 

Light Heavyweight Bout Odds
Da-un Odds -230
Clark Odds +190
Over/under rounds TBA

Derrick Lewis vs. Serghei Spivac

Heavyweight Bout Odds
Lewis Odds +190
Spivac Odds -230
Over/under rounds TBA

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College Basketball Odds, Pick for Virginia vs. Syracuse: Heavy Reverse Line Movement in ACC Clash

college-basketball-odds-pick-virginia-syracuse-acc

Virginia vs. Syracuse Odds

Virginia Odds -5.5
Syracuse Odds +5.5
Over/Under 132.5
Date Monday, Jan. 30
Time 7 p.m. ET
How to Watch ESPN

*Odds via FanDuel as of Monday morning

Monday’s college basketball schedule features a solid slate of Power Five matchups, including some ranked contests.

In this piece we’ll be looking at the Virginia vs. Syracuse ACC clash as the Cavaliers make the trip up to New York.

As it currently stands, the Orange are looking to add some key wins to their resume to ensure a March Madness berth, while Virginia is aiming to shore up an already impressive one and reach the top of the ACC.

At the moment, Clemson holds that position, but the ‘Cavs are one of the teams that are in contention for that top spot at just a game and a half back.

Read on to see the college basketball odds and the Action Network’s PRO Report pick for Virginia vs. Syracuse.

Virginia vs. Syracuse PRO Betting Pick

Odds and betting data updated as of 11 a.m. ET

While the majority of retail bettors are on the Orange, this line has actually shifted in the opposite direction, with UVA moving from -4.5 to -5.5 at most sportsbooks.

That’s due to sharp action coming in on the Cavaliers. Overall, 60% of the tickets and 61% of our tracked handle has come in on Syracuse, though a majority of the sharp action has landed on UVA.

This is a classic sharps vs. squares position, at least according to our PRO Report, and it appears that aligning with Virginia would be aligning with the sharps.

As always, be sure to get the best price available. At the moment, that is at FanDuel and a host of sportsbooks, which are holding this line at 5.5 (-110).


NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Bet Porzingis, Beal in Wizards vs. Spurs (January 30)

NBA First Basket will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day here, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Bradley Beal, Kristaps Porzingis

Odds Beal (+750) I Porzingis (+550)
Time 8 p.m. ET
Book  FanDuel

The Washington Wizards continue their road trip through the South Monday night taking on the Spurs in San Antonio.  Kristaps Porzingis (78% opening-tip win rate) is off the injury report and will face Jakob Poeltl (48% win rate) at center court on the opening tip.

These two haven’t faced off on an opening tip-off over the past two seasons, but I expect Washington to control the opening tip. The Wizards have scored first this season in 55% of games, while the Spurs have scored first in 48% of games.


To place your bets on this and many, many other markets across the world of sports, head over to FanDuel Sportsbook right now!


Bradley Beal has scored the first team field goal in 48% of starts this season, while Daniel Gafford and Porzingis have each scored the first team field goal in 29% of starts.

The Spurs allow opposing shooting guards to score first in 32% of games this season (second highest rate in the league). This lines up well for Beal tonight, and he has attractive odds.

I’m going to pair Beal with Porzingis thinking one of them will hit the first basket.

Pick: Bradley Beal +750 (down to +550, 0.5 units)


Pick: Kristaps Porzingis +550 (down to +450, 0.5 units)


Wizards vs. Spurs First Basket Prop Data

Get NBA First Basket’s bets instantly in The Action Network app.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Odds: Spieth, Fitzpatrick Favored

att-pebble-beach-pro-am-odds-spieth-fitzpatrick-favored

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Odds

Odds via bet365.

Player Name Odds
Jordan Spieth +900
Matt Fitzpatrick +900
Viktor Hovland +1100
Tom Hoge +1800
Maverick McNealy +1800
Justin Rose +2200
Seamus Power +2500
Keith Mitchell +2800
Andrew Putnam +2800
Joel Dahmen +3000
Matt Kuchar +3300
Denny McCarthy +4000
Thomas Detry +4500
Taylor Pendrith +4500
Alex Smalley +5000
Ben Griffin +5500
Dean Burmester +6000
Nick Taylor +6000
Trey Mullinax +6000
Taylor Moore +6000
David Lipsky +6000
Kevin Kisner +6600
Nick Hardy +6600
Robby Shelton +7000
Lanto Griffin +7000
Ryan Palmer +7000
Will Gordon +7500
Scott Stallings +7500
Davis Riley +8000
Erik van Rooyen +8000
Brendon Todd +8000
Kurt Kitayama +8000
Russell Knox +8000
Beau Hossler +8000
S.H. Kim +8000
Troy Merritt +8000
Kevin Streelman +9000
Justin Suh +9000
Matthew Nesmith +9000
Nate Lashley +10000
Webb Simpson +10000
Scott Piercy +10000
Greyson Sigg +10000
Joseph Bramlett +11000
Garrick Higgo +11000
Ben Taylor +12500
Harry Higgs +12500
Danny Willett +12500
Callum Tarren +12500
Byeong-Hun An +12500
Kevin Yu +14000
Matti Schmid +15000
Doug Ghim +15000
Brandon Wu +15000
Dylan Frittelli +16000
Adam Schenk +16000
Adam Long +16000
Harry Hall +16000
Charley Hoffman +16000
Matthias Schwab +16000
Erik Barnes +17500
Kevin Tway +17500
Justin Lower +17500
MJ Daffue +17500
Sam Stevens +17500
Luke Donald +17500
Peter Malnati +17500
Ben Silverman +17500
Aaron Baddeley +17500
Marcel Siem +17500
Mark Hubbard +17500
Seung Yul Noh +17500
Vaughn Taylor +20000
Andrew Novak +20000
Ryan Moore +20000
Lucas Glover +20000
Zecheng Dou +20000
Harrison Endycott +20000
Cameron Percy +20000
Chesson Hadley +20000
Henrik Norlander +20000
Jimmy Walker +20000
Carl Yuan +20000
Andrew Landry +20000
Fabian Gomez +22500
Austin Cook +22500
Satoshi Kodaira +22500
Chris Stroud +22500
Michael Kim +22500
Doc Redman +22500
Austin Eckroat +22500
Eric Cole +22500
Augusto Nunez +22500
Austin Smotherman +22500
Tano Goya +25000
Ben Martin +25000
Brian Gay +25000
David Lingmerth +25000
Vincent Norrman +27500
Rory Sabbatini +30000
Zac Blair +30000
J.B. Holmes +30000
James Hahn +30000
Paul Haley II +30000
Dylan Wu +30000
Sean O’Hair +35000
Ryan Armour +35000
Brian Stuard +40000
Jason Dufner +40000
Brent Grant +40000
Tyson Alexander +40000
Scott Brown +40000
Grayson Murray +40000
Cody Gribble +40000
Sung Kang +40000
Chad Ramey +40000
Jonathan Byrd +40000
Scott Harrington +50000
Kevin Roy +50000
Nick Watney +50000
Ryan Brehm +50000
William McGirt +50000
Kelly Kraft +50000
Nicolas Echavarria +50000
Brice Garnett +50000
Hank Lebioda +60000
Philip Knowles +60000
Bill Haas +60000
Trevor Werbylo +60000
Camilo Villegas +60000
Kyle Stanley +60000
Wesley Bryan +60000
Ted Potter Jr +75000
Greg Chalmers +75000
Paul O’Hara +75000
Trevor Cone +100000
Kyle Westmoreland +100000
Ben Crane +100000
Brandon Matthews +100000
Carson Young +100000
Max McGreevy +100000
Richy Werenski +100000
Kevin Chappell +100000
John Pak +100000
Arjun Atwal +100000
Michael Gligic +100000
Robert Garrigus +100000
Anders Albertson +100000
Geoff Ogilvy +100000
Garett Reband +100000
RJ Manke +100000
Martin Trainer +125000
D.A. Points +150000
Tommy Gainey +150000
Charles Porter +150000
Tom Johnson +150000
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The PGA Tour’s fourth full-field event of the year is the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, which will be hosted by Pebble Beach Golf Links in Pebble Beach, California.

Last year, Tom Hoge shot a final-round 68 to win by two strokes over Jordan Spieth at 19-under to claim his first career PGA TOUR victory. Hoge is in the field to defend his title this week and opened at +1800 at bet365 to win the tournament outright again.

Spieth, who both nearly fell off a cliff on the eighth hole last year and held a lead on the final nine holes, opens as a co-favorite at +900 at bet365. Spieth’s most recent win came last year at the RBC Heritage. The former world No. 1 also won this event in 2017 and has three consecutive top-nine finishes here since 2020.

Reigning US Open champion Matt Fitzpatrick is the other co-favorite at +900. He is making his fifth start at Pebble Beach and has a T12 here at the 2019 US Open along with a T6 last year. In his three starts on TOUR this season, Fitzpatrick has finished no worse than a tie for 13th.

Viktor Hovland opened with the third-shortest odds at +1100. He already has a win this season at the Hero World Challenge and is playing in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am for just the second time in his career. He finished T38 here in his debut in 2020.

Along with Hoge, Maverick McNealy (+1800) is the only other player shorter than +2000 at open. McNealy has two top-five finishes in four starts at this event and has posted seven consecutive top-31 finishes on TOUR this season.

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Course Preview

Players will participate in a pro-am this week and play three different golf courses – Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Course and Monterey Peninsula Country Club – before a 54-hole cut. The field will then consolidate and play a final round at Pebble Beach Golf Links.

Pebble Beach is a 6,816-yard par-72 with small Poa Annua greens (3,500 square feet). Spyglass Hill is also a par-72 at 7,035 yards with 5,000 square feet of greens. Monterey Peninsula is a par-71 at 6,958 yards with the biggest greens at 6,000 square feet. All three courses have Poa Annua greens and two-inch Rye and Poa Blend rough.

Past AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Winners

Year Player Winning Score
2022 Tom Hoge -19
2021 Daniel Berger -18
2020 Nick Taylor -19
2019 Phil Mickelson -19
2018 Ted Potter Jr. -17
2017 Jordan Spieth -19
2016 Vaughn Taylor -17
2015 Brandt Snedeker -22
2014 Jimmy Walker -11
2013 Brandt Snedeker -19

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Super Bowl MVP Odds: Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts Heavy Favorites to Win Award

super-bowl-mvp-odds-patrick-mahomes-jalen-hurts

The Super Bowl matchup has been set as the Chiefs will take on the Eagles, and DraftKings has already released its Super Bowl MVP odds, giving us a look into who has the best chance of taking home the award.

It comes as no surprise that the two quarterbacks, Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, are significant favorites to win the MVP.

Hurts is listed at +120 while Mahomes is +125.

However, the award hasn’t been as skewed to quarterbacks as you may expect. Over the past 10 years, just six Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks.

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Tom Brady (3x), Patrick Mahomes, Nick Foles and Joe Flacco are those who won the award. In addition, wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Julian Edelman won the MVP, as have linebackers Von Miller and Malcolm Smith.

It makes sense based on that list that pass-catchers are the next in line in terms of this year’s Super Bowl MVP odds.

Travis Kelce (+900), A.J. Brown (+1000) and DeVonta Smith (+2000) have the next-shortest odds to take home the honors.

Full Super Bowl MVP odds can be found below.

Player Team Odds
Jalen Hurts Eagles +120
Patrick Mahomes Chiefs +125
Travis Kelce Chiefs +900
AJ Brown Eagles +1000
Devonta Smith Eagles +2000
Miles Sanders Eagles +2500
Isaiah Pacheco Chiefs +3500
Chris Jones Chiefs +4000
Jerick McKinnon Chiefs +5000
Haason Reddick Eagles +5000
Darius Slay Eagles +6000
Dallas Goedert Eagles +6000
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Chiefs +6000
Frank Clark Chiefs +8000
Brandon Graham Eagles +8000
JuJu Smith-Schuster Chiefs +8000
Nick Bolton Chiefs +8000
Kadarius Toney Chiefs +10000
T.J. Edwards Eagles +10000
Quez Watkins Eagles +10000
George Karlaftis Chiefs +10000
Willie Gay Chiefs +15000
L’Jarius Sneed Chiefs +15000
Justin Reid Chiefs +15000
Josh Sweat Eagles +15000
Kenneth Gainwell Eagles +20000
Fletcher Cox Eagles +20000
Boston Scott Eagles +20000
Skyy Moore Chiefs +20000
Kyzir White Eagles +25000
Zach Pascal Eagles +25000
Ndamukong Suh Eagles +25000
James Bradberry Eagles +25000
Trent McDuffie Chiefs +25000
Reed Blankenship Eagles +25000
Justin Watson Chiefs +25000
Jake Elliott Eagles +25000
C.J. Garnder-Johnson Eagles +25000
Mike Danna Chiefs +25000
Harrison Butker Chiefs +25000
Mecole Hardman Chiefs +25000
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NASCAR Cup Series Odds, Picks, Predictions: Giffen’s Must-Bet 50-1 Long Shot to Win Daytona

NASCAR Cup Series cars hit the track at the L.A. Coliseum later this week as the 2023 season kicks off with the Busch Light Clash.

However, I’m looking ahead to the race two weeks later – the Daytona 500.

Last week I made my first NASCAR bet of the 2023 season. Since then, FanDuel Sportsbook released odds for the Daytona 500, giving us more lines available to choose from.

That’s where I’m looking when adding to my Daytona 500 betting card.

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Daytona 500 Pick

One thing I like to do when looking at betting odds at superspeedways (Daytona and Talladega) is to look at a driver’s laps led.

While it’s not a perfect metric because of varying agendas like riding around in the back, laps led is still a pretty solid proxy for win probability in a lot of cases.

If we think about it, it makes a lot of sense. Daytona and Talladega are two tracks with a high degree of randomness. Even the best statistical models can only predict the finishing order to about 15% accuracy.

Randomness is the key here. If we take all the laps at these two tracks and randomly pull laps and pretend that’s the finishing order, the lap led percent would be the probability the driver wins.

That’s not how things work in reality, but it does show why laps led at superspeedways is a good proxy for win probability. So if we find a large discrepancy between drivers’ winning odds and their laps led, it certainly merits investigation.

Well, Aric Almirola presents the largest discrepancy among all drivers if we look at laps-led data since the Cup Series moved away from restrictor plates after the 2019 Daytona 500.

Looking just at races where a driver has raced for his current team (or, for drivers joining a new team, I’ve taken their most recent team) at Daytona and Talladega races from spring 2019 Talladega race until present, we see Almirola comes in 13th in percentage of laps led. If we just look at laps where the driver participated (to adjust for DNFs), Almirola moves up a spot to 12th.

Importantly, those percentages, when scaled to 100%, show Almirola’s laps led as a fraction of the whole field is about 3.4%. If we equate that to betting odds, that would be about 29-1.

This makes sense for Almirola. Almirola’s won twice at either Daytona or Talladega in 48 career starts at the two superspeedways, which would equate to 23-1 as fair value. He also narrowly missed out on winning the 2018 Daytona 500, where Austin Dillon spun Almirola on the back stretch of the last lap while Almirola was leading.

Sure, Almriola had his worst season statistically for Stewart-Haas Racing last year, but that doesn’t really matter at the superspeedways. In fact, Almirola finished fifth at the Daytona 500 and led the most laps at Talladega in the playoff race.

With SHR, Almirola has led at least 2.6% of all the superspeedway laps he’s run each year from 2019 to 2022, which would equate to +3750. And the only year he didn’t come in above that number at SHR, in 2018, he nearly won the Daytona 500 and he won at Talladega.

This number at FanDuel is just far too long for a guy who gets upfront year in and year out at superspeedways.

Pick: Almirola (+5000) to Win Daytona 500 | Bet to +3500

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Lakers vs. Nets Odds, Pick, Prediction | NBA Betting Preview (January 30)

lakers vs. nets-odds-pick-prediction-preview-nba-january 30-2023

Lakers vs. Nets Odds

Lakers Odds +9
Nets Odds -9
Over/Under 231
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
TV NBA TV
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Brooklyn Nets and Los Angeles Lakers face off on Monday evening.  However, many of the big names in this matchup will not be suiting up.

Kevin Durant is still on the injured list with a sprained MCL, but the good news is he will begin participating in on-court activities this week. For the Lakers, both LeBron James and Anthony Davis will get a rest day on the first game of a back-to-back.

With James declared out, the Nets have ballooned to nine-point favorites. Is this move justified or an overreaction?

Here’s a look at the odds, as well as our pick and prediction for Lakers vs. Nets.
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Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are coming off a controversial overtime loss to the Celtics on Saturday night. James was unhappy about a missed call on his lay-up attempt at the end of regulation. The Celtics wound up winning the game in overtime, 125-121. This has been a hot topic in the basketball world in the past few days, and I wonder if it will affect how the referees call Monday’s game.

Nonetheless, the Lakers will still need to perform without their superstars. They are 4-6 straight up and 3-5-2 against the spread this season without James, per the Sports Data Query Language at Gimme the Dog. Digging even further, the Lakers are 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS without James on the road.

Lonnie Walker returned against the Celtics after being sidelined for 14 games. He made an immediate contribution with 13 points on 6-for-8 shooting in 18 minutes. Newcomer Rui Hachimura has two games under his belt and will have an opportunity to be featured more in this matchup.
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Brooklyn Nets

This will be the Nets’ eighth consecutive game without Durant, and they plan to re-evaluate his return in two weeks.  Fortunately, Brooklyn has managed to stay afloat with a 30-19 record, thanks to Kyrie Irving’s stellar play. Irving has averaged 36.3 points per game on 51.7% shooting over the past six games, which include wins over the Golden State Warriors and New York Knicks.

Big man Nic Claxton has been another major contributor. He has taken a huge leap forward this season and has seven double-doubles in the past eight games. He’s also averaging a ridiculous 2.7 blocks per game. The Lakers are second in the league in points in the paint, but I don’t expect them to have much success in that area with Claxton protecting the paint.

The Nets are in a lookahead spot as they face the division rival Celtics on Wednesday. Brooklyn is also coming off a win against the Knicks. I see this as a let-down spot for the Nets.
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Lakers-Nets Pick

I don’t think this hefty line is justified — especially without Durant in the lineup. The market is overcompensating for James’ absence and the fatigue off an overtime game. I make this line Nets -6 and see some value on the underdog here.

I’ve seen this play out many times.  Teams receive a short-term boost when their best player is out and others step up in their absence. Conversely, the opposing team may let its guard down when playing a team missing its best players. To add to that theory, the Nets are primed for a let-down in a game sandwiched between two divisional contests.

I anticipate the Lakers will play with some fire after their controversial game against the Celtics. I’m taking the points with the Lakers, and also think a sprinkle on the moneyline is well worth it.

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Chiefs vs Eagles Super Bowl Picks: The Bets We’ve Already Made

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Chiefs vs Eagles Odds

Chiefs Odds +2
Eagles Odds -2
Moneyline +105 / -125
Over/Under 49.5
Time Feb. 12, 6:30 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM, as of 11:15 p.m. ET. Get the latest Super Bowl odds here.

Super Bowl Picks

Click on a pick to skip ahead
Dabbundo: Chiefs +2
Stuckey: Chiefs +2
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Pick
Chiefs +2
Best Book

Anthony Dabbundo: The Eagles were the best team in the NFC entering the playoffs and deservedly won the conference, but you can’t ignore the low-quality quarterback play they’ve faced throughout season.

Kansas City has an excellent offensive line to slow Philly’s pass rush and Patrick Mahomes will be much healthier in two weeks than he was in the AFC Championship game. The biggest uncertainty is the injuries among Chiefs receivers, as they lost Kadarius Toney, Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster during the game against the Bengals.

Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon runs a passive, zone-heavy scheme that’s had major issues against top-tier pocket passers since he arrived in Philly at the start of last season. They were picked apart by Tom Brady, Dak Prescott, Mahomes and even Derek Carr last season.

That being said, improvements were made this year. They added quality linebackers and a few secondary pieces, but again, have largely been untested. The Eagles faced three quarterbacks that finished in the top 10 in EPA per dropback. Jared Goff scored 35 points, Dak Prescott posted 40 and Trevor Lawrence fumbled five times in a driving rainstorm.

The Eagles will be able to successfully run the ball on this Chiefs front, but it’s absurd to me that they are suddenly rated as a better team when Kansas City was viewed as one almost all season in the betting market’s implied power ratings.

Maybe the Eagles really were just that good this year, but I’ll take the more efficient pass offense over the excellent run game as an underdog every time.

Kansas City at -1 or better is worth a bet for me.

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Pick
Chiefs +2
Best Book

Stuckey: I make the Chiefs a favorite here.

The Eagles are great. The NFC was garbage this season. Both can be true.

I feel like the market is completely overvaluing Philadelphia here. I get the sense we’ll look back at this line in 10 years and ask, “Why was the greatest quarterback of all time an underdog in the Super Bowl?”

The Eagles will exploit some of the Chiefs’ defensive weaknesses, although K.C.’s run defense has sneakily been better than it has over the past few years.

I respect both coaching staffs, but this is a bet on Patrick Mahomes getting me home, and I’m very comfortable with that.

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Super Bowl Odds for Chiefs vs Eagles: Line Moves Quickly With Heavy Action on Philly

super bowl odds-spread-chiefs vs eagles

Super Bowl Odds: Eagles vs. Chiefs

Eagles Odds -1.5 (-105)
Chiefs Odds +1.5 (-115)
Over/Under 49.5 (-110 / -110)
Date Sunday, Feb. 12
Time 6:30 p.m. ET
Channel FOX

*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Jan. 29 at 10:30 p.m. ET. Ready to place your bets? Check out the newest, best FanDuel promo codes here!

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When sportsbooks opened Chiefs vs. Eagles odds for the Super Bowl, Kansas City was a favorite.

But that didn’t last long.

Early line movement sent the Super Bowl spread through zero, and now Philadelphia is the chalk for the time being, peaking at -2.5.

Our NFL public betting data reveals 70% of tickets and 89% of money are on the Eagles – and that was over the course of 11,000+ wagers registered in our trackers.

FanDuel in particular was a big mover, adjusting from Kansas City -1.5 (the Chiefs were +1 around the market at open) to Philadelphia -1.5.

The over/under has remained consistent, sitting idly at 49.5.

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The Eagles wore down the 49ers in a huge win in the NFC Championship Game. The tilt went under the total of 44.5. Kansas City, meanwhile, squeaked out a win over Cincinnati. The AFC Championship also went under the total.

Despite the cover Sunday against the Bengals, Kansas City’s just 7-11-1 against the spread this season, playoffs included. The 38.9% cover rate is tied for a bottom-five mark in the NFL.

The Chiefs are one of the better under bets in the league, at 11-8 (57.9%) overall.

Philadelphia, meanwhile, moved to 10-9 (52.6%) against the spread with its cover over San Francisco in the Sunday afternoon NFC Championship Game.

The Eagles are only one of five NFL teams profitable to the over this season (also 10-9, 52.6%).


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2023 Super Bowl Odds for Chiefs vs Eagles: Betting Trends, History Shape Matchup

chiefs vs eagles-super bowl-bets-spread-total-odds-patrick mahomes-jalen hurts

The 2022-23 Super Bowl is set! We have Chiefs vs. Eagles odds for the big game, which will take place at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

Let’s take a deep dive into the betting trends that will shape the storylines for Super Bowl LVII.

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Super Bowl Trends

What were the Super Bowl lookahead lines prior to the Conference Championship Games?

  • Chiefs -1 vs. Eagles
  • Eagles -1.5 vs. Bengals
  • Chiefs -1 vs. 49ers
  • 49ers -1 vs. Bengals

How have favorites performed in Super Bowl history?

36-20 straight up (SU) and 27-27-2 against the spread (ATS).

The over/under in Super Bowl history is also close to split, with 26 overs, 28 unders and one push (there was no O/U for Super Bowl I).

Has the point spread mattered in the final result of Super Bowls?

In 56 games, the SU winner is 47-7-2 ATS. In Super Bowl LVI (last year), the Rams beat the Bengals, but failed to cover the 4.5-point spread — the first time the favorite won but failed to cover the Super Bowl since 2009.

Another short spread in the Super Bowl

This is poised to be the 15th straight Super Bowl with the favorite laying fewer than seven points, extending the longest string in history.

Chiefs vs. Eagles 
Channel: FOX | 6:30 p.m. ET (Sun. Feb 12)
Line: PHI (-1.5) | O/U: 49.5
Patrick Mahomes, KC
2022 Career Playoffs (Career)
7-12 ATS
16-3 SU
48-43-2 ATS
74-19 SU
8-5 ATS
10-3 SU
Jalen Hurts, PHI
2022 Career Playoffs (Career)
10-7 ATS
16-1 SU
19-17-1 ATS
25-12 SU
2-1 ATS
2-1 SU

Philadelphia Eagles

  • Philly is 1-2 straight up and 2-1 against the spread in franchise history in the Super Bowl.
  • The Eagles were 25-1 to win it all in the preseason, which ranked 13th in the NFL behind teams like the Colts, Broncos and Rams.
    • Over the last 40 years, the Eagles at 25-1 odds would be the seventh highest to win the Super Bowl.
  • Jalen Hurts, 24, would be the youngest QB to win a Super Bowl out of the NFC (Jared Goff was 24 in 2019).
  • Hurts has had success against quality teams this season, going 7-0 SU vs. playoff teams.
  • Hurts is 21-4 (84%) SU in games in which his team is favored (13-11-1 ATS).
  • In the Super Bowl, the Eagles will be playing their first game away from home since they faced the Cowboys in Dallas the day before Christmas — which will be exactly 50 days to the day of Super Bowl LVII.
  • Eagles are 14-5 against the first half spread this season, the most profitable first-half ATS team this season.
  • In the Super Bowl, the Eagles will be playing their first game away from home since they faced the Cowboys in Dallas the day before Christmas — which will be exactly 50 days to the day of Super Bowl LVII.
  • The Eagles entered the playoffs 8-9 ATS during the regular season. Philadelphia could become the third team to enter the postseason under .500 ATS and win the Super Bowl in the Wild Card Era (2013 Ravens and 2022 Rams).
  • The Super Bowl is in Arizona, not Philadelphia. Hurts has performed much better at home than on the road.

Home: 13-5-1 ATS – 10-3 ATS at home as an underdog or a favorite of seven points or fewer.

Road: 6-12 ATS – Under .500 ATS on the road each of his three seasons in the NFL.

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Kansas City Chiefs

  • Chiefs are 2-2 SU and 2-2 ATS in franchise history in the Super Bowl.
  • The Chiefs were 10-1 to win the Super Bowl in the preseason, which was third behind the Bills and Buccaneers.
  • Kansas City Preseason Odds to Win Super Bowl with Patrick Mahomes:
    • 2022: +1000
    • 2021, 2020: +450
    • 2019: +600
    • 2018: +3000
  • This is Mahomes’ third Super Bowl appearance. He’s the 13th QB with three-plus Super Bowl appearances and only the sixth with all three appearances coming under 30 years old.
  • If Kansas City closes as a favorite against Philly, the Chiefs would be favored in their 16th straight playoff game — the longest streak in the Super Bowl era. Their last playoff game as an underdog? 2016 Divisional at Patriots. Alex Smith vs. Tom Brady. The Patriots won 27-20.
  • Mahomes would be favored in his 14th straight playoff game (T-longest streak all-time with Peyton Manning).
  • Mahomes is 20-4 SU at home in December or later in his career. His only losses? Against Joe Burrow, Brady and Philip Rivers.
    • Mahomes’ 18th start in January or later. He’s been favored in all 18 — he’s  13-4 SU and 9-8 ATS.
  • Super Bowl 57 is Andy Reid’s fourth Super Bowl as a head coach. Reid becomes the ninth coach in history to go to four Super Bowls as a head coach.
  • Mahomes is 18-6-1 ATS as a favorite of three points or less (or an underdog) in his career (30-37-1 ATS as favorite of 3.5 or more). 

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Bengals vs. Chiefs Highlights: Top Plays from AFC Championship

afc-championship-highlights-top-plays

The Kansas City Chiefs are headed to the Super Bowl after defeating the Cincinnati Bengals in an incredible, back-and-forth AFC Championship Game with tons of highlights.

Kansas City closed as a 1.5-point favorite with the over/under at 48.5. The Chiefs covered, with the under also cashing.

Relive the Chiefs’ incredible win with the Bengals vs Chiefs highlights and top plays from the AFC Championship.

Want all the top plays and highlights from the Conference Championship games so far? Click here for the 49ers vs. Eagles Highlights and NFL Top Plays from earlier in Sunday’s NFC Championship.

Looking for Chiefs vs Eagles Opening Super Bowl odds? Click here!

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NFL Top Plays: Bengals vs Chiefs AFC Championship Highlights

Mahomes Steps Up Big As Penalty Looms Large

On one leg, Patrick Mahomes scrambled for one of the biggest first downs of his career. The Bengals were flagged for a personal foul for hitting Mahomes out of bounds, and from there, kicker Harrison Butker took care of business.

Now, Kansas City will face the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LVII.

One Good Play Deserves Another (And Another)

A clutch third down conversion could have meant the Bengals winning outright in regulation. It definitely meant Hayden Hurst went over his receptions total of 3.5.

But the Kansas City defense sacked Joe Burrow to force a punt, giving Mahomes time for a little bit of last-minute magic.

A big punt return certainly helped Kansas City’s cause.

A Costly Arm-Punt For Cincinnati

The Bengals moved to live favorites for the first time all game when they held the Chiefs to a punt in the fourth. On 3rd-and-3, though, Burrow threw his second pick of the night on what was essentially a punt with his arm, and Kansas City vaulted back to -230 on the live moneyline.

Be Aggressive, B-E Aggressive

Defense wins championships, of course, but a little bit of offensive aggression can go a long way, too. The Bengals went for it on fourth-and-six to start the fourth quarter, as Ja’Marr Chase beat double coverage to put Cincinnati in scoring range.

A few plays later, we were all tied up at 20, with Samaje Perine cashing as a +400 anytime TD scorer.

The Chiefs remained -2.5 on the live spread and -142 on the live moneyline, with the live total jumping to 52.5.

Gotta Hand It to Them

This mistake from Mahomes had nothing to do with his ankle injury. Instead, the Chiefs quarterback simply lost his grip on the ball, giving the Bengals life.

After the turnover, which led to the touchdown above, Cincinnati was +3.5 on the spread and +205 on the live moneyline.

Mahomes Comes Up Limping, Chiefs Score Anyway

The Chiefs were able to matriculate the ball down the field on their second drive of the second half, but after scrambling to his left on a play that also left Mecole Hardman hurt, Mahomes was visibly in pain.

Yet the K.C. QB found Marquez Valdes-Scantling on third-and-10 to put the Chiefs back in front.

MVS was +333 to score a touchdown.

Bengals Roar Back

After holding the Chiefs to a three-and-out to start the third quarter, Burrow hooked up with Tee Higgins for a Moss-esque touchdown catch to knot things up at 13-13. Higgins was +185 to score a touchdown.

All of a sudden, Kansas City was down to -2.5 on the live line, with the Bengals +114 on the live moneyline.

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Bad Start for Burrow Before Bouncing Back

The Chiefs were getting after Burrow in the first half before that big touchdown play in the third, sacking him three times alone in the first quarter.

Here, Jaylen Watson — who’s been everywhere this postseason — flipped the field. Burrow was even money to throw an interception.

Who Else But Kelce?

Travis Kelce scored the first touchdown of the game last week en route to a clinic over the Jaguars. Guess who hit pay dirt first in the AFC Championship?

Kelce’s receiving props were over/under 6.5 catches and 76.5 yards. He ended the night with six catches for 78 yards.

Not bad!

Mahomes to MVS, Pt. 1

Mahomes took care of Valdes-Scantling player prop bettors early, finding MVS on this deep ball for 29.

MVS caught a pass on the prior play, which cashed his reception prop (1.5) and longest catch in back-to-back snaps.

Chiefs Getting Frisky

Andy Reid was in his bag in the first — perhaps too much so.

But all’s well that end’s well — especially when you cover.

Looking for the opening Super Bowl odds for Chiefs vs Eagles? Click here!

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NFL Playoffs Live Betting: How We’re Live Betting the Conference Championship Games

The Chiefs have taken early control against the Bengals in the AFC Championship, as Patrick Mahomes (pictured here looking to pass) has seemed to be plenty healthy.

The NFL is deciding the conference champions this weekend, as the Philadelphia Eagles took care of business against the depleted San Francisco 49ers. Now, it’s time for the Kansas City Chiefs to host the Cincinnati Bengals.

Today is a tricky spot for live betting, as both games were within three points on the spread. That means we’ll have a hard time predicting the likeliest game flow, so we need to be quick on our feet with any potential live spots.

Still, we do have a robust data set on both teams based on a full season’s worth of games. We should feel fairly confident about how they’ll approach different scenarios should they arise.

Here’s what we’re looking for on our live bets.

The Live Bets to Watch For in the Conference Championship

Chiefs-Bengals: Unders With a Big Lead Either Way, Overs in a Close Game (LIVE BETS MADE)

This was one of the toughest live betting spots of the year. Kansas City’s pace is within half a second in all scoreboard scenarios, only speeding up or slowing down slightly regardless of the game flow.

Cincinnati shows a bit more variability, but the only notable situation is that they don’t speed up much when playing from behind. Truthfully, this was a game we’d shy away from during the regular season with a full slate of games on tap.

On the other hand, this was a case where we could try to catch sportsbooks “over adjusting” based on game flow. Both teams rank in the top-12 in pace during close games (those within seven points either way), creating an opportunity for the over.

However, the number we were getting was considerably more important than the scoreboard here. The total was 48 heading into the game, and after Kansas City’s first possession of the second half, we got our moment.

The Bengals had fairly solid field position here. If they score, the Chiefs are going to want to take a two-score lead again before they feel comfortable. To me, this is still a close game. So we’ll take the live over on 42.5.

To help make sense of the AFC championship game, I also joined Dr. Nick live at halftime for the penultimate episode of “Bet What Happens Live” of the season:

On the show, we decided to take under 25.5 receiving yards for Jerrick McKinnon, a number we would have been OK with down to 24.5.

The Live Bet We Made Earlier on the NFC Championship Game

Eagles-49ers: Overs in a Close Game, Unders if Eagles Lead (LIVE BET MADE)

All four teams playing this weekend have played slower in the second halves of games. However, that doesn’t really tell us much. Given that they’re (in theory at least) the four best teams in football, it stands to reason that they’ve spent the bulk of their second halves with leads.

Indeed, all four teams rank in the top five in time of possession when playing with a lead.

However, the Eagles still exhibit extreme splits based on both which half they’re in and the score of the game. They play at the league’s fastest pace when games are within seven and the fastest pace in the first half.

San Francisco plays considerably slower overall, but their fastest scoreboard split by ranking is close games. Therefore, a tight game — especially one that starts low-scoring — would have seemed to be a clear over situation. Ideally, the total would come down from the pregame 45.5. But with Brock Purdy injured and out of the game, we’re probably not looking at overs anytime soon.

If the favored Eagles controlled this one, it was another ideal spot for the bet we’ve been targeting all year. The 49ers don’t pick things up much when trailing (28th in pace of play down seven or more), and the Eagles consistently take the air out of the ball.

While we weren’t expecting the Eagles to dominate here, if they were able to get a few quick scores and drive the total up, we were willing to pounce early. The dream spot was a total that breaks 50, but as always, we were set to play it by ear — especially with Purdy out and it unclear how sportsbooks might account for that in the live lines.

The Eagles scored toward the end of the first half to go up 13. With the total moving to 48.5 — over the crucial “three more touchdowns” threshold — we’ll be pulling the trigger on the live under (-110).

The Josh Johnson-led 49ers offense has been abysmal, with only seven points despite a ton of solid field position. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles have as many first downs from penalties (four) as they do passing. That’s unlikely to be repeated in the second half — which has the 49ers poor offense starting with the ball.

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How We Approach Live Betting in General

The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.

The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points.

Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.

Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.

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NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Blues vs. Jets (January 30)

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Blues vs. Jets Odds

Blues Odds +176
Jets Odds -215
Over/Under 6 (-114/-106)
Time 8 p.m. ET
TV NHL Network
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

A pair of struggling Central Division teams will get their chance to head into the All-Star Break on a winning note. In the only game on the NHL schedule, the Winnipeg Jets host the St. Louis Blues on Monday night.

Losers of their past three, the Jets are coming off a 4-0 home loss to the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday night that left head coach Rick Bowness reading the riot act to his team. Fourteen points lower in the league standings, the Blues have lost four straight and are looking like potential sellers ahead of the March 3 trade deadline.

Here’s the latest on the Jets and the Blues, and your best bet for Monday’s game.

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St. Louis Blues

The Blues are one of the NHL’s streakiest teams and right now, they’re going through a rough patch. They’ve lost six of their past eight, including four straight. St. Louis has given up at least four goals in all six of those losses and has scored more than three just once in those eight games.

Fundamentally, the Blues aren’t playing great hockey. They rank 26th in expected goals at 5-on-5 and although workhorse starter Jordan Binnington has a winning record at 18-17-3, his .891 save percentage and minus-10 goals saved above expected are reasons for concern.

Offensively, the Blues are missing some key forwards due to injury. Ryan O’Reilly and Pavel Buchnevich are out until after the All-Star Break, and second-leading scorer Robert Thomas missed Saturday’s 4-2 loss to the Colorado Avalanche due to a lower-body issue. It’s likely he’ll also miss Monday’s game.

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Winnipeg Jets

The Jets have rediscovered their identity under Bowness, but they got an earful from their coach after their Saturday loss to the Flyers. However, they did outshoot Philadelphia 40-33 and matched their opponent in high-danger scoring chances at 5-on-5.

The Jets are tied for second in the Western Conference standings, but their expected goals ratio for the year at 5-on-5 is not as high as you might expect. WInnipeg is ranked 22nd at 49.71%. The Jets special teams are a strength, as is goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, who has 23 wins in his league-leading 39 starts. He also has 21.7 goals saved above expected, the fourth-most in the league.

After going through a tough stretch with injuries earlier this season, the Jets are now reasonably healthy, but their offense has been streaky over the past seven games. The Jets scored five goals in each of their recent wins — over the Flyers on Jan. 22 and the Senators one day before — but have just five total goals over five losses since Jan. 17.

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Blues vs. Jets Pick

Bad luck has been a factor in the recent slumps for both these teams. PDO is a stat that combines a team’s save percentage and shooting percentage, offering an indication of whether a team is getting its usual bounces.

A PDO of 1.000 is average, but since Jan. 17, the Blues have endured an NHL-worst PDO of just .925. The situation hasn’t been much better for the Jets, who sit 27th at .963.

Both squads are due to get some bounces — but can the Blues get enough to overcome their serious underdog status in this matchup?

It seems unlikely.

On top of being the stronger squad, Winnipeg is 2-0-0 in the season series, healthier and has home-ice. The Jets are also less likely to slip into long losing streaks as they’ve only lost three in a row one other time this season. Meanwhile, St. Louis has lost four or more on three occasions, including an eight-game slide earlier this year.

The over-under in this game is a virtual pick ’em, so your best bet Monday is to look for the Jets to dispatch the Blues and head into the break on a high note.

As of Sunday afternoon, FanDuel is offering a reasonable -130 for a Jets win within 60 minutes. If you’re feeling even braver, consider the puck line at +116.

Pick: Jets in regulation (-130) | Play down to -140

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NBA Player Props, Picks: Best Bets for Sunday, January 29

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After hitting two of our three NBA player props last night, we look to keep that momentum to finish off the weekend with tonight’s three-game slate. Even with only three games on the schedule, there are two props that look great in our NBA Model which are Buddy Hield and Jonas Valanciunas.

NBA Player Props & Picks

Buddy Hield, Under 22.5 Points (-115)

Spread Grizzlies -8.5
Time | TV 6 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Best Line DraftKings

Playing without their star point guard Tyrese Haliburton has been a struggle for the Pacers. They have lost nine of their last 10 games as they continue to plummet down the Eastern Conference standings. The Pacers are 8.5-point road underdogs against the Grizzlies who has a 20-3 home record this season.

Many players have had to step up in Haliburton’s absence, including veteran shooting guard Buddy Hield. He has averaged five 3-pointers in his last four games and still has failed to score 23 or more points in any of those contests. In fact, Hield hasn’t scored more than 22 points in a game since January 11th.

In that 10-game stretch where the Pacers have gone 1-9, Hield is averaging only 16.8 points per game. In a game where the Pacers could easily lose by double-digits, it is tough to see Hield reaching this over at this inflating prop line. Our Prop Model has Hield projected for only 19 points in this matchup.

The Grizzlies lead the league in Defensive Rating (109.7), entering tonight’s games and rank above average in 3-point percentage allowed. Even in his last two games where Hield shot 57.7% from the field, he still didn’t score more than 22 points. I would take this under prop down to 20.5 points tonight.


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Jonas Valanciunas, Over 9.5 Rebounds (-115)

Spread Bucks -9
Time | TV 8 p.m. ET | NBA TV
Best Line DraftKings

Playing on a back-to-back, the Pelicans will likely be playing without Brandon Ingram as Zion Williamson remains out due to injury. Similar to the Pacers, the Pelicans are nine-point road underdogs as they have lost seven-straight games. The Bucks are also dominate when playing at home with a 19-5 record.

Jonas Valanciunas was ejected last game and only played nine minutes. He will be well-rested for this back-to-back and our NBA Model has him projected for 11.1 rebounds, which is well over this 9.5 rebound prop line. Valanciunas has exceeded this prop line in 11 of his 14 games this month, including the ejection.

Over that 14-game span, Valanciunas is averaging exactly 11 rebounds per game. The Bucks are allowing 44.1 rebounds per game, which is tied for the ninth-highest in the league. Not only has Valanciunas been well over this prop recently, but this is a great rebounding matchup with Brook Lopez out tonight.

The minutes for Valanciunas tend to fluctuate, but without Williamson and Ingram in the lineup, Valanciunas could be in line for more minutes in this spot. There is a chance the Pelicans can get run out of the gym in this matchup, but even in 25-30 minutes, Valanciunas has proven he can reach this over.

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Chiefs vs Bengals Spread, Picks, Player Props: AFC Championship

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Chiefs vs Bengals Odds

Chiefs Odds +2 (-110)
Bengals Odds -2 (-110)
Moneyline -130 / +110
Over/Under 48 (-110 / -110)
Time Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET
TV CBS
Odds via bet365.
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We’re back where we were at this stage last year, staring down Chiefs vs Bengals odds ahead of the AFC Championship Game.

When it comes to making picks, our staff has you covered. We have two ways to back Cincinnati, as well as a variety of Chiefs vs Bengals player props.

Check out our favorite Chiefs vs Bengals picks for the AFC Championship Game below.


Chiefs vs Bengals Picks

Click on a pick to skip ahead
Bengals +1.5
Bengals 2H +0.5
Chiefs -1.5
Isiah Pacheco Rushing Yards
Kadarius Toney Receiving Yards
Joe Burrow Interceptions
Joe Mixon Rushing Yards
Travis Kelce Anytime TD Scorer
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Case for the Bengals

Two of our experts are backing Cincinnati in the AFC Championship Game. After scouring Bengals odds, here are two ways to back the reigning AFC champions.

Pick
Bengals +1.5
Best Book

John LanFranca: One of the many reasons I picked the Bengals to win the Super Bowl prior to the playoffs is the fact their offensive personnel matched up well with both the Bills and Chiefs. Neither Buffalo or Kansas City have the players in the secondary to slow down the best receiving corps in football.

The Chiefs’ pass defense relies heavily on creating pressure in order to limit opponents. While this sounds obvious, the Chiefs have surrendered the highest completion percentage in the NFL this season on attempts they failed to get pressure.

In three meetings with the Bengals since the beginning of 2021, Joe Burrow has averaged over nine yards per attempt when he is kept clean versus the Chiefs defense. Steve Spagnuolo will have to bring extra defenders to ensure Burrow does not play in a comfortable pocket all game – that does not bode well for a secondary allowing a hearty 8.4 yards per attempt to boundary wide receivers (per Sharp Football).

Without the help of a game-changing turnover by his defense, a limited Patrick Mahomes just has too tall of task. The Bengals now have the health advantage, the better defense and the matchup advantage. Cincinnati will advance to the Super Bowl for the second straight season.

I’d play the Bengals all the way to -2.5.

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Pick
Bengals 2H +0.5
Best Book

Brandon Anderson: I hate to bet against Mahomes, but the matchup compels me, so I’ll play something of a hedge — Bengals 2H +1.5.

Cincinnati has been awesome in the second half, 23-4 ATS (85%) over its last 27 games. That includes a perfect 6-0 ATS in postseason games and 3-0 against the Chiefs. Somehow, some way, Anarumo consistently finds answers against Mahomes.

Maybe the Chiefs come out with their hair on fire, defending home field while Mahomes attacks early at his healthiest. I won’t be surprised if the Chiefs lead at the half. But Mahomes should wear down as the game goes on, and I expect Anarumo to throw a lot of looks early and adjust his coverage as he sees what works.

Normally, I’d be dying to back Mahomes at home as a short favorite or dog. He’s 17-6-1 ATS (74%) as anything shorter than a 3.5-point favorite, though he’s only 3-2 in that spot in the playoffs and has lost all seven failed covers outright, most recently to Bengals in December.

It would also be criminal to talk up Anarumo and the Bengals coaching so much without mentioning Andy Reid and all his experience. But Reid and his staff haven’t had answers for Cincinnati. Reid is an ugly 3-6 straight up in Conference Championship games, all but one as a favorite.

If you like the Chiefs, I think you have to like the over. A bet on Kansas City is a bet on Mahomes being healthy enough to put up his usual points, because it’s not like the Chiefs will stop the Bengals offense. If you like the Bengals, you probably lean under for the same reason, betting against the Chiefs offense.

If you agree the AFC Championship Game will be low scoring, there’s another sneaky way to play this game.

Many books allow you to bet on the highest scoring team of the weekend, with Bengals at +300 and Chiefs at +240. That can be a clever way to play the moneyline if the Eagles and 49ers end up in the teens or low 20s. If you like the Bengals, getting them at such a long number against the worst defense left is a gem.


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Case for the Chiefs

We have one expert on the Chiefs. Anthony Dabbundo lays out why he’s not buying Cincinnati to make another Super Bowl.

Pick
Chiefs -1.5
Best Book

Anthony Dabbundo: It’s important to realize just how much of a market correction this is. The Chiefs closed as 2.5-point favorites in Cincinnati this season. They laid 7.5 at home in last year’s AFC Championship game.

When the Bills closed as two-point favorites at Cincinnati in the canceled regular season game, they ended up being six point home favorites in the playoffs. By that math, the Chiefs should be clearly favored by more than a field goal, even if you bump Cincinnati for the dominant win against Buffalo.

Now, Kansas City is barely a favorite at all.

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The Bengals’ win in Buffalo comes with a huge caveat — the game was played in snow. Both teams had to bear the conditions and Cincinnati deserves credit for handling it better, but the Bengals’ biggest weakness — their offensive line — couldn’t get exposed by the Bills’ poor pass rush. The snow massively helps the offense because life as a pass rusher is significantly more difficult in those conditions.

Cincinnati won’t have that benefit in Kansas City and it’ll once again be without three starters along the front. The Bengals struggled massively in one playoff game and played great in the other. It seems the sentiment around them is much higher now than it was after the fluke win against the Ravens.

I’ve lost betting against the Bengals a few times this year, but never have they received the current market respect they’re getting off one game in the snow and injury uncertainty for Mahomes.

Verdict: I’m willing to pay to find out how healthy Mahomes is. If he were healthy, this line would be -3 at a minimum. I never thought we’d get Mahomes in a contrarian home underdog spot in the AFC Championship Game, but that’s exactly the case here. I like the Chiefs at -2 or better.


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Chiefs vs Bengals Player Props

We have overs, unders, a future and a touchdown scorer. Dig in.

Pick
Isiah Pacheco Over 47.5 Rushing Yards
Best Book

Cody Goggin: Last year, the story of the AFC Championship Game was the Chiefs crumbling in the second half. This was largely due to their inability to run the ball effectively when they needed to, leading to Cincinnati being able to come back and win.

Part of the reason for this was that Cincinnati was dropping eight to nine defenders in coverage for the entire second half and leaving light boxes for the Chiefs, but they still couldn’t get it done. Now Kansas City has a bruising back named Isiah Pacheco who has added this dimension to its offense.

With the likely approach that Cincinnati will take towards stopping Patrick Mahomes through the air, as well as Mahomes’’ ankle injury, the Chiefs will need to be successful on the ground. I would expect them to have a heavier than normal volume of rushes, resulting in extra carries for both Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon.

In the first matchup between these teams this season, Pacheco had 14 carries for 66 yards and a touchdown. You’ll see varying numbers on his rushing prop this week, but the consensus line seems to be around 48.5 rushing yards. This is a mark that Pacheco has exceeded in nine of his last ten games, including last week’s 95-yard performance against Jacksonville.

Taking into account the Bengals’ likely gameplan for defending the Chiefs, Mahomes’ injury, and Pacheco’s recent production, this line is much too low. Pacheco will likely get around 15 carries in this game, depending on the game script, and have plenty of opportunities to break off a big one or two.

If the Chiefs end up with a lead, expect Pacheco to see even more work as he tries to finish what they couldn’t last year.

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Pick
Kadarius Toney Over 35.5 Receiving Yards
Best Book

John LanFranca: It’s worth noting this line is a full five yards lower at PointsBet than other books. With that said, I would play this prop up to 36.5.

The Chiefs receiver who led the team in targets last week behind Travis Kelce is propped in the 30s, that alone makes this number playable. Toney is targeted on over 30% of his routes run, with over 40% of his targets coming behind the line of scrimmage. In this game, he will undoubtedly be a major part of the offensive gameplan once again.

Andy Reid will be scheming plays to get the ball out of Patrick Mahomes’ hands as quickly as possible. Reid is a mastermind at getting the football to his playmakers in space, as displayed by the Chiefs leading the NFL in yards after catch this season.

It will be crucial in this game to protect Mahomes, all the while creating opportunities for explosive plays. The Bengals limited Kelce to only 56 yards on six targets back in Week 13, thus it will likely be up to other playmakers on this team to keep the Chiefs offense rolling — Toney is the guy to make it happen.

I’d play this over up to 36.5 receiving yards.


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Pick
Joe Burrow Under 0.5 Interceptions (-118)
Best Book

Tony Sartori: Burrow has not thrown a pick in his last three games, a trend that is likely to continue against a team he has owned. In three career appearances against the Chiefs, he averages north of 300 passing yards per game and has thrown eight touchdowns compared to just one interception.

Kansas City’s biggest weakness is its pass defense, which finished the regular season ranked just 21st in pass DVOA. On the other hand, Burrow and the Bengals’ pass offense finished the regular season in the top 10 in pass DVOA.

Burrow’s biggest strength is his accuracy, which is key to Cincy’s chances on Sunday. Protecting the football will be priority No. 1, because every possession either needs to end in points or pinning KC deep in their own end due to how easily Mahomes and his offense can score.


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Pick
Joe Mixon — Most Playoff Rushing Yards (+250)
Best Book

Brandon Anderson: Mixon enters Championship Sunday at 134 right now, 10 yards behind McCaffrey. Both trail Travis Etienne (171), but they should pass him this weekend.

With McCaffrey banged up and splitting touches with Elijah Mitchell, I project Mixon to finish the weekend with a slight lead on CMC, both just above 200. Miles Sanders and Isaiah Pacheco are next in the running around 150-160 by Sunday night.

That’s where game theory comes into play. If Cincinnati wins, Mixon becomes a big favorite. He’s the one workhorse back left and should be ahead of McCaffrey or Sanders. Even if the Bengals lose, Mixon could still hit if he cracks 200.

An Eagles-Chiefs Super Bowl could see two RBs needing 50+ yards to pass him, still giving Mixon a potential path to win. Only a 49ers-Chiefs Super Bowl — with McCaffrey still going and Mixon done — is a sure loss.

These lines are sharp, and these teams are great. Sometimes, you have to get a little creative and play some longer angles with everything on the line.

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Pick
Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-105)
Best Book

Blake Krass: No matter what level of health Patrick Mahomes is at, he will look to Travis Kelce.

Kelce has been Mahomes’ go-to guy over the last three seasons, particularly in the playoffs. In seven playoff games since 2021, Kelce is averaging 9.1 receptions, 108.1 yards and 1.1 TDs per game. That includes 10 catches for 95 yards and a touchdown in this AFC Championship Game against the Bengals a year ago.

Kelce has had eight or more catches and scored at least one touchdown in all but one of those games. He’s had at least 95 yards in all of them. If Mahomes is banged up, I think he will look at Kelce even more. Last week, Kelce had an insane 14 catches with two touchdowns with a lot of that action coming after Mahomes sustained the injury.

I expect Andy Reid to kee