After England won only their second of eight major tournament penalty shootouts, and first at a World Cup, the English media are starting to believe that anything is possible. “Football’s coming home” as far as fans of the Three Lions are concerned, but if their team is to lift the trophy for the first time in more than 50 years, there are a few roadblocks still to overcome.
Sweden are, without question, a favorable quarterfinal opponent, but that’s not to say Saturday’s match in Samara will be plain sailing for Gareth Southgate’s men. It never is as far as England are concerned, nor is it when they come to blows with this weekend’s challengers.
England have, after all, won just one of their last eight competitive meetings with the Swedes, who have developed a liking for what has become a familiar underdog status under coach Janne Andersson. Indeed, since exiting Euro 2016 and waving goodbye to their greatest-ever player in Zlatan Ibrahimovic, there has been a realization that without a star name to call upon, the players have needed to accept their limitations and, in a roundabout way, turn that into a strength.
The Scandinavians have shown this summer and well beforehand just how difficult they are to break down, simply by sticking to their rigid positions when out of possession and sitting deep. In the past 18 months, they’ve beaten Portugal, France and Italy, so they aren’t to be underestimated, keeping five clean sheets in their last six matches.
It’s relatively clear how the pattern of this match will play out, with Sweden having had a lower possession share (36%) at this World Cup than any of the remaining teams. Plus, they’re well-aware that England are struggling to create meaningful chances from open play.
England have the tournament’s top scorer in their ranks, and Harry Kane will know that if he can add to his six-goal tally, he may well wrap up the Golden Boot. While there are those who will point to his duties as the penalty-kick taker as the main reason for his success this summer, he’s taken the chances that have come his way. Plus, his performance against Colombia was arguably the Tottenham star’s best all-around display of the tournament.
Sweden may have conceded only twice, but they have allowed their opponents the most shots on goal (61) of the quarterfinalists, and Kane doesn’t need a second invitation to shoot or indeed score. With odds over evens on the striker to do so at any time, that’s a bet that’s well worth considering, but I like the winning margin odds for England in this one.
It’s never straightforward when they are involved, after all, and Southgate’s charges are the only side remaining that are yet to keep a clean sheet. While their quality should win out, you can bank on a tight result, so England to win by exactly one goal would be my tip.
After a small two-game slate on Thursday, it’s time for one more appetizer before the main course comes on Saturday. Friday’s college football slate is a big one, featuring five games — and all five are conference matchups.
Our college football crew came through with five bets for Friday night’s Week 5 games, including a pair of picks that are aligned on the UTSA vs. Middle Tennessee spread.
Check out all five of our college football best bets for Friday night below. Then, check back tomorrow for our betting coverage of Saturday’s monster Week 5 slate.
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Fridat College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
Middle Tennessee is riding high and will have a quick turnaround coming off of its biggest win in program history. That’s a tough spot to get back up for.
Look what has happened so far this season. Old Dominion upsets Virginia Tech and then loses to ECU. Marshall upsets Notre Dame and then loses to Bowling Green. Georgia Southern upsets Nebraska and then loses to UAB. Tulane upsets Kansas State and then loses to Southern Mississippi.
I still don’t think Middle Tennessee is very good. It got demolished by James Madison in its opener, getting outgained, 548-119. Then, it beat a laughably bad Colorado State team and FCS Tennessee State.
In the Blue Raiders’ win over Miami, they picked up four passing plays of at least 69 yards. While 25 yards per completion is awesome, it’s not sustainable.
Big plays are great, but Middle Tennessee ranks 105th in the country in Success Rate on offense. The Roadrunners defense ranks 15th in Success Rate and 35th at defending passing explosiveness.
The Blue Raiders can’t run the ball, and quarterback Chase Cunningham will have to outplay UTSA’s Frank Harris, who leads the conference with 327.5 yards per game.
Harris has tossed 10 touchdowns and just two interceptions. Wide receivers De’Corian Clark, Joshua Cephus, and Zakhari Franklin rank first, second, and third in Conference USA in receiving, respectively.
UTSA entered the season as the favorite in C-USA, and I still believe it’s the best team. Middle Tennessee is middle-of-the-pack at best and is in a huge letdown spot after the big win.
All-conference safety Rashad Wisdom and the rest of this Roadrunners defense will not give up the big plays that Miami did.
UTSA is one of my favorite bets not only for Friday but for the entire weekend.
Middle Tennessee is coming off of the biggest victory in program history after upsetting Miami on the road as 25.5-point underdogs.
Below is a look at the five biggest upsets this season. After a monster win, the upsetting team has followed that performance up by going 0-5 and missing the cover by an average of 14 points.
Middle Tennessee will need to refocus quickly as it welcomes in the reigning Conference USA champions.
Meanwhile, UTSA will be well-prepared entering this matchup fresh off of a glorified bye week against an FCS opponent. Frank Harris is one of the top quarterbacks in the Group of Five and is averaging nearly 40 pass attempts per game while averaging 8.5 on such attempts.
He should have a field day against a Middle Tennessee defense that’s allowing over 250 passing yards per game.
The Blue Raider secondary has been suspect all season. Of the 13 touchdowns opponents have scored this season, 11 of them have come through the air.
UTSA will kick off Conference USA play with a decisive victory in search of back-to-back championships.
Middle Tennessee and UTSA have started the season with strong offensive showings.
Both teams rank in the top 50% of FBS programs in scoring offense with the Roadrunners and Blue Raiders ranking 37th and 53rd by hanging 37.0 and 33.8 points per game, respectively.
Middle Tennessee comes into the game after upsetting Miami in a 45-point effort, seemingly erasing any woes associated with the seven-point performance it logged in the opening game against James Madison.
UTSA has been downright consistent on offense with redshirt senior quarterback Frank Harris at the helm through a tough opening schedule.
While both offenses have shown an ability to easily put up 30 or more points, both defenses have a susceptibility to allow points as quickly as their counterparts can put them up. Conversely, both teams rank in the bottom 50% nationally in scoring defense with Middle Tennessee and UTSA ranking 69th and 113th, giving up 25.0 and 35.0 points per game, respectively.
If we exclude FCS competition from both teams’ schedules, the waters become even muddier with Middle Tennessee and UTSA adjusted to allow, 31.3 and 38.7 points per game, respectively.
Neither of these teams are clock hogs, which is perfect for a bet that relies on teams airing it out. The Blue Raiders rank 85th nationally in possession at just under 29 minutes, while the Roadrunners possess the ball even less at an average of 27:38 per game.
UTSA has a very pass-heavy attack that currently has Harris ranked sixth nationally in passing yards heading into Week 5.
Lastly, UTSA is a perfect 4-0 against the total this season, while Middle Tennessee is 2-2 — but the Blue Raiders have hit the over in their last two.
Based on the aforementioned factors my model is projecting a total of 72.38 points in this game. This represents just under eight points of value in actionable markets and offers the best value on the Friday night card for me.
Sit back, grab a drink and hammer the Friday night over.
Washington’s defense has some major problems right now that quarterback Michael Penix and some timely turnovers have masked.
On defense, the Huskies rank 78th in EPA/Play Allowed, 121st in explosiveness allowed and 70th in Finishing Drives Allowed.
Stanford averaged 6.0 yards a play against them last Saturday but turned the ball over three times. In fact, Washington has already forced six turnovers in its three games against FBS opponents, so some turnover regression is coming.
One of the main reasons why Washington is struggling defensively is because it only returned five starters and lost two first-team All-Pac 12 cornerbacks from 2021.
Washington has allowed 8.3 yards per attempt (104th in FBS), sits 81st in EPA/Pass and 118th in Passing Explosiveness Allowed. Meanwhile, UCLA is a top-10 team in terms of Passing Success Rate.
Another year in Chip Kelly’s system has done wonders for Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Zach Charbonnet.
UCLA is averaging 5.7 yards per attempt. It’s also 20th in EPA/Rush, 15th in Rushing Success Rate and eighth in Offensive Line Yards
.
Charbonnet finished 2021 with a 91.9 PFF rushing grade and averaged 5.1 yards per carry. This season, it’s been more of the same, as he’s put up an 89.8 PFF rushing grade while averaging 7.0 yards per carry.
Even though Penix has been lighting opponents up through the air, UCLA’s defense is allowing just 4.0 yards per play (ninth in FBS) and ranks 13th in EPA/Play Allowed and ninth in Success Rate Allowed.
I have UCLA projected as a -0.8 favorite at home, so I think there’s a little value on the Bruins at +3.
Oftentimes there’s a line that’s posted based on just underlying stats or power rankings without looking at how two teams match up. I believe that’s the case for this Mountain West battle on Friday night.
UNLV has had a solid offensive season so far. It ranks 20th in the country in Offensive Success Rate and 19th in EPA per Play despite having some of the worst starting field position in FBS (116th). This Rebels offense succeeds on the ground, where they have the fifth-highest Rushing Success Rate in the entire nation.
Why is this important? Because New Mexico has a Success Rate of 28th on defense. It has looked good at times, but its success has come against the pass, where it ranks 10th. The Lobos rank just 97th in Rushing Success Rate., which is a matchup UNLV will be able to exploit.
New Mexico’s offense is brutal. It ranks 111th in Offensive Success Rate with its strength also coming on the ground. Even with this as a “strength,” it still ranks just 83rd in Rushing Success Rate.
New Mexico runs at the 12th-highest rate in the country, making up 62% of its offensive plays.
The UNLV defense isn’t fantastic, ranking 55th in Success Rate both overall and against the run. However, it will be good enough to handle a New Mexico offense that ranks dead last in SP+ among all offenses.
I expect UNLV to run the ball all night long against this Lobo defense en route to an easy victory. I would take the Rebels to cover this spread all the way up to 16.5 points.
College football player props are back with a full slate of options at our disposal for Saturday, and Action Network has you covered with our best plays for the Week 5 slate.
Our season-long record sits at 11-8 after last Saturday’s misfortune, when we finished at 2-3. Our three losses — NC State’s Demie Sumo, East Carolina’s Keaton Mitchell and Missouri’s Luther Burden — all suffered injuries that limited their playing time. We’re due for some better luck.
If you enjoy college football player prop betting, and are interested in weekly statistical projections, please make sure to check out our friends at the CFFSite who compile the data that can give you the edge against the books.
College Football PrizePicks Player Props for Week 5
In the table below, you’ll find my top five PrizePicks player props from Saturday’s slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
Pretty cut and dry here — this prop is just way too low given what Iowa State’s WR1 has done to start the season: 36 catches in four games and averaging an absurd 13 targets per game.
The senior receiver also has one of the highest target shares (36%) in the country. Iowa State really integrates just two receivers in its passing scheme with Hutchinson and sophomore Jaylin Noel.
This is probably our favorite play of the entire board; our CFFSite projections call for eight receptions against a Kansas secondary that allows 264.5 passing yards per game.
Pick: Xavier Hutchinson Over 6.5 Receptions
Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State
4 p.m. ET
Saturday, Oct. 1
SEC Network
QB Will Rogers Passing Yards
Will Rogers’ passing yards line opened at 250.5 to start the week but has flatlined in the last two days. I assumed it would jump even closer to 300 yards.
In 26 appearances with the Bulldogs, Rogers has hit this benchmark (270.5 passing yards) 19 times. So, Rogers is surpassing this number at a 73% clip for his career — and that even includes two games during his freshman season when he was not even the starter.
As is the case with every Mike Leach-led offense, the Bulldogs rank inside the top five offenses in FBS, averaging 48.5 pass attempts per game.
Granted, Rogers draws a tough matchup against a top-10 Aggies pass defense, but the CFFSite’s projection (316.0 yards) has Rogers clearing this number by a safe margin.
Pick: Will Rogers Over 270.5 Passing Yards
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WR Evan Stewart Receptions
It’s safe to say our attention will be on this SEC matchup in the 4 o’clock window with two picks from Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State. Next up: Aggies star freshman wide receiver Evan Stewart.
Last week’s victory against Arkansas came with some disappointing news: Senior receiver Ainias Smith is done for the year with a foot injury.
Smith’s injury is detrimental to the A&M’s passing offense, but it also enables some of the underclassmen to step into the spotlight. Most prominent among those underclassmen is Stewart, who was tied with Smith for the team lead in targets (24) despite missing a game due to suspension.
The next-closest Texas A&M player in targets this season? Running back Devon Achane (12).
So, we expect quarterback Max Johnson to look towards Stewart often when dropping back to pass. Stewart is the clear WR1 moving forward.
Pick: Evan Stewart Over 4.5 Receptions
West Virginia vs. Texas
7:30 p.m. ET
Saturday, Oct. 1
FS1
RB Bijan Robinson Fantasy Points
We can go ahead and just call a spade a spade with this selection.
This is a total gut-feel pick after Bijan Robinson’s costly fumble against Texas Tech last week that cost the Longhorns the game. It was reported that the junior running back was carrying a football around campus this week, so we know that motivation won’t be an issue this week.
Ok, now for the evidence.
Robinson has hit this number in each of his last five outings and will face a West Virginia defense that allows 19.7 fantasy points per game to RB1s.
Both Rodney Hammond (Pittsburgh) and Devin Neal (Kansas) have scored 21 or more fantasy points against the Mountaineers this season, and both of those running backs play in a timeshare. Not the case for Robinson.
Pick: Bijan Robinson Over 20.5 Fantasy Points
Indiana vs. Nebraska
7:30 p.m. ET
Saturday, Oct. 1
Big Ten Network
WR Trey Palmer Receptions
Palmer was great to us the last time we played him in Week 3, soaring over his reception prop as he finished with 10 receptions on 11 targets in the loss to Oklahoma.
We’re going back to the well here against Indiana in a matchup between two teams that are both inside the top 20 nationally in pace.
As we mentioned a few weeks ago, the slot receiver has routinely been the profitable position in offensive coordinator Mark Whipple’s scheme, and now he has full control of the offense following the firing of head coach Scott Frost.
Despite three drops in four games, Palmer is converting on nearly 78% of the 36 targets that have come his way.
There is no better way to gear up for the Saturday slate than a Friday night Mountain West matchup between UNLV and New Mexico.
This matchup has been nothing short of entertaining, with the road team winning the last five matchups both outright and against the spread.
Four of those five road wins were outright upsets.
UNLV comes into this matchup a perfect 4-0 ATS this season, while New Mexico is looking to bounce back from a 38-0 loss to LSU.
With a win on Friday night, New Mexico and third-year head coach Danny Gonzales can already cash their season win total over (2.5).
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New Mexico Lobos
Coming into the 2022 season, the focus for New Mexico was an improvement on offense.
Offensively, New Mexico can’t be much worse than its 2021 season, as it failed to score more than 17 points in 10 of its 12 games.
This year, there hasn’t been a drastic improvement on the offensive side of the ball. Through four weeks, the Lobos have posted an overall Offensive Success Rate of just 33%, with 3.4 points per scoring opportunity.
Quarterback Miles Kendrick, who transferred from Kansas in the offseason, has continued the average quarterback play for the Lobos.
Kendrick has thrown for just 430 yards on a 57% completion percentage through four games.
Although New Mexico has its problems on the offensive side, the team’s play style and pace have been enough to keep it in every game this season, including covering the spread until late in the third quarter against a much more talented LSU team.
New Mexico ranks dead last in the country in plays per minute and plays per second. The Lobos average only 1.81 plays per minute for an average of 225 a contest.
By limiting offensive possessions, New Mexico has been able to post a positive 2-1-1 record ATS this season despite its underwhelming offense.
In addition to this slow play style, defensive coordinator Rocky Long has built a defensive unit that prides itself on forcing opponents into slow and methodical scoring drives.
So far in 2022, New Mexico has been able to limit teams’ success through the air. The Lobos’ defensive backs have a 10% Havoc rate — to go along with a 20% Passing Downs Success Rate — that helps to limit the big-play ability of their opponents.
In addition, New Mexico has a Defensive Success Rate of 39% against the pass, which is good for top-40 nationally.
Forcing UNLV into a run-first attack will limit the Rebels’ overall offensive possessions.
Against UTEP in Week 3, the Lobos were able to force an astounding seven turnovers. Although this volume of turnovers is impossible to repeat, it speaks volumes about the way Long wants this defensive unit to play.
Another factor that will limit UNLV’s possessions on Friday night includes with where it starts on offense.
Through four games, New Mexico has been able to start opposing offenses on their own 27.1-yard line, on average.
This ability to pin teams deep is yet another reason New Mexico has been able to limit offensive possessions for its opponents.
On Friday night, the Lobos will look to stay within the number, as they have done all season long given their slow and methodical play style on both sides of the ball.
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UNLV Rebels
After a disappointing 2-10 season in 2021, UNLV is off to an impressive 3-1 start under third-year head coach Marcus Arroyo.
Much of UNLV’s success has come on the ground via junior running back Aidan Robbins, who has posted an impressive 5.3 yards per catch and seven touchdowns.
Another bright spot for the Rebels offensively has been quarterback Doug Brumfield, who has posted a season-long rating of 162.5 to go with a completion percentage of 69.8%.
Additionally, Brumfield has been relatively mistake-free, posting an 8:1 TD:INT ratio.
UNLV has rushed the ball a total of 157 times, as opposed to only 126 total passing attempts. The Rebels rank third in the nation in EPA per Rush, which explains their tendency to favor the ground game.
This dependency on the rush will again show itself Friday night against a New Mexico team that has more success when defending the pass. UNLV ranks second in the country in total Line Yards while New Mexico ranks 116thin Defensive Line Yards.
I expect UNLV to keep the ball on the ground early and often on Friday night given New Mexico’s strength against the pass. This dependence on the ground game will further limit the possessions for each team.
Defensively, UNLV has been far from perfect. This is an experienced group with nine of its top 11 tacklers back, but the Rebels’ opponents have been able to find success against this unit.
UNLV has allowed its opponents to produce an overall Explosiveness of 1.39, which balloons up to 2.04 on passing downs.
On top of that, the Rebels have allowed 3.3 Line Yards per rush due to their 15% Stuff Rate against the run.
In a game in which possessions will be so valuable, allowing this type of explosiveness will hinder UNLV’s ability to cover the spread.
Overall, I believe that this number is simply too inflated given the way that both teams want to play on Friday night.
New Mexico will look to dominate the time of possession to keep the UNLV offense off the field.
Defensively, the Lobos will also work to force UNLV into long methodical scoring drives that rely heavily on the rushing attack.
At the time of writing, UNLV is a 14.5-point favorite. Although UNLV has a clear advantage offensively, I believe New Mexico will be able to do enough on both sides of the ball to turn this game into a slow-paced slugfest and ultimately stay within the number.
A battle of undefeated Pac-12 foes takes place under the lights at the Rose Bowl to close out Friday’s college football slate.
Washington pulled off an upset of then-No. 11 Michigan State and followed that up with a 18-point win over Stanford at home.
This is the first year under new head coach Kalen DeBoer after he came over to the Huskies from Fresno State. This will be his first big road test as Washington’s head coach.
Chip Kelly has UCLA at 4-0 after an easy schedule to start the season, but that doesn’t mean there wasn’t a bit of drama along the way. UCLA needed a game-winning field goal to beat South Alabama at home two weeks ago.
This is the Bruins’ first test of the season, so we will see if this team is a dark horse to win the Pac-12.
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Washington Huskies
Offense Led By Penix
Michael Penix Jr. has been on fire since he transferred to Washington. His season at Indiana in 2021 was cut short by injury, and he never realized his full potential after a breakout 2020 season.
Through four games this year, he has a 90.2 PFF passing grade, is averaging 9.2 yards per attempt and has 10 Big Time Throws compared to just one Turnover Worthy Play.
Washington also brought back three of its top four pass catchers from last season, so this is one of the best passing attacks in the Pac-12.
Washington hasn’t been very effective running the ball, though. The Huskies are only 58th in Rushing Success Rate, 60th in EPA/Rush and are only averaging 4.0 yards per carry.
The offensive line has been getting a good push up front, ranking 44th in Offensive Line Yards and 19th in terms of a run blocking grade, per PFF. The Huskies just don’t have much talent in the running back room.
Turnover Regression Coming For Defense
Washington’s defense has some major problems right now that Penix and some timely turnovers have masked.
The Huskies are 78th in EPA/Play Allowed, 121st in Explosiveness Allowed and 70th in Finishing Drives Allowed.
Stanford averaged 6.0 yards a play against them last Saturday, but turned the ball over three times. In fact, Washington has already forced six turnovers in its three games against FBS opponents, so some turnover regression is coming.
One of the main reasons why Washington is struggling defensively is because it only returned five starters and lost two First Team All-Pac 12 cornerbacks from 2021.
Washington has allowed 8.3 yards per attempt (104th in FBS), is 81st in EPA/Pass and is 118th in Passing Explosiveness Allowed. UCLA is a top-10 team in terms of Passing Success Rate.
Thompson-Robinson has been pretty good throwing the ball through four games. UCLA is 10th in Passing Success Rate, 16th in EPA/Pass and Thompson-Robinson is averaging 8.2 yards per attempt.
It helps when he has an offensive line that has done a fantastic job at protecting him, ranking 11th in terms of a pass blocking grade, per PFF, and eighth in Havoc Allowed.
Can Defense Slow Down Penix?
UCLA has played an easy schedule to this point in the season, but is only allowing 4.0 yards per play (ninth in FBS), and ranks 13th in EPA/Play Allowed and ninth in Success Rate Allowed.
This is also a defense that brought back just two starters from last year, but Kelly went into the transfer portal and grabbed a bunch of impact transfers to help fill the void, which seems to have worked out in his favor.
The biggest question mark for UCLA as it pertains to this game is can its secondary — that hasn’t played a decent quarterback — slow down Penix?
The Bruins are 28th in EPA/Pass Allowed and have a top-35 coverage grade, per PFF.
Just like I have the past few weeks, I will detail 10 of the trickiest spots I circled after last weekend for the Week 5 Saturday college football slate.
To find these spots, one just has to look at a team’s opponents the week prior and week after to get an idea of where any potential flat spots might pop up.
Ultimately, the actual spread value still reigns supreme. No matter how great a situational spot appears on paper, you still have to factor in how much value the number holds. A good or bad spot may sway me one way or the other on a bet I’m on the fence for, however.
Motivation, injury situations and depth also come into play, especially early in the season. It’s certainly more art than science.
For this week, we’re going dumpster diving quite a few times, so get ready to hold your nose.
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Air Force -14.5 vs. Navy
Noon ET · CBS Sports Network
When you can get a service academy catching 14 or more points, you have to strongly consider backing it. The same goes for any time you can potentially fade a service academy laying over two touchdowns.
Possessions are limited with the clock running throughout, making it very difficult for teams to cover large spreads. And when two service academies play each other, the result is usually an absolute grind since both teams are very familiar with the triple-option, having practiced against it every day.
And with two almost run-exclusive teams, the clock flies.
The historical against-the-spread splits back this up. Service academies are just 39-55-2 ATS (41.5%) when favored by 14 or more points since 2005. That includes a mark of 3-8-1 ATS (27.3%) against fellow triple-option teams. Meanwhile, the three service academies have gone 42-26-1 (61.8%) as underdogs of at least two touchdowns over that span.
In regard to this particular matchup, Navy’s run defense has actually been extremely solid this season, while Air Force has struggled in that department. I think the Midshipmen can keep this within two scores and wouldn’t look any other way but the under 38 in regard to the total.
Notable Nugget: Over the past 20 years, unders have gone 49-11-3 (81.7%) in service academy matchups, including a current streak of 21-2-1 since 2014.
In its first season at the FBS level, James Madison has arguably exceeded preseason expectations more than any team in the country to date. The Dukes are coming off an emotional comeback win at Appalachian State in a game that looked like a Mountaineer runaway halfway through.
While JMU deserves a ton of credit, it made this list last week for a reason.
That was a dream situational spot off of a bye against an App State team that had just completed one of the craziest three-game stretches of thrillers you will ever see in this sport. I think App State simply ran out of gas in the second half.
Now, JMU is getting an abundance of national love for that win ahead of a home game vs. lowly Texas State in what could be a bit of a flat spot.
More importantly, this number is just super inflated in my opinion. The Bobcats were just 30-point underdogs at Baylor two weeks ago and didn’t get completely embarrassed. This line should be closer to two touchdowns, not over three, in my opinion.
It’s time to sell high on James Madison at the potential peak of its market value.
Notable Nugget: Undefeated ATS teams with a two TD+ average cover margin have gone just 21-41-4 ATS (33.9%) as home favorites in Games 4 or 5. Syracuse already lost this year in the only situation that has fit so far in 2022.
Penn State -25.5 vs. Northwestern
3:30 p.m. ET · ESPN
When you glance at Penn State’s upcoming schedule, its primary focus will likely be to stay healthy and not show too much against an overmatched opponent.
After this weekend, the Nittany Lions will enjoy a bye week before facing three ranked Big Ten teams in Michigan, Minnesota and Ohio State. That’s the true 2022 Big Ten gauntlet.
Meanwhile, Northwestern should come out with a desperate effort after three straight home losses against Duke, Southern Illinois and Miami (Ohio).
That’s very ugly, but the Wildcats have been extremely snakebitten in each in the turnover department. Those opponents had numerous short-field touchdown drives while winning the turnover battle, 9-2, in three one-possession wins.
Meanwhile, Penn State has dispatched three straight opponents with relative ease but certainly benefited from +8 (8-0) turnover margin that made the final scores look a bit misleading.
I believe this presents a prime opportunity to buy low on Northwestern in a potential sleepy spot for Penn State.
I’m not calling for the Wildcats to win the Big Ten West, but they do currently sit in first place in an eerily similar situation to 2018 when they did indeed win the division.
After beating Purdue on the road to start the year, they lost three straight home games, including one to Duke and another to a MAC team (Akron) as a 21-point favorite. Sound familiar?
What did they do the next game on the road? They won outright as a double-digit underdog against ranked Michigan State. For what it’s worth, teams in this exact scenario (road dog after three straight home losses and losing ATS record) have gone 10-2 ATS since 2005, covering by an average of two touchdowns per game. It’s a silly sample size but speaks to the buy-low nature of the spot.
There also could be some inclement weather in Happy Valley, which would favor the heavy underdog in a potentially lower-scoring affair.
Head coach James Franklin has also been working in a lot of true freshmen in these games in order to build depth for later in the season, which he has talked about incessantly over the past few weeks.
Notable Nugget: Pat Fitzgerald is 12-9 ATS on the road against top-25 teams, covering by just under six points per game.
Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. Pictured: The crowd at a Penn State football game.
Kansas -3 vs. Iowa State
3:30 p.m. ET · ESPN2
What a start for Kansas football, which has gone from perennial doormat over the past decade-plus to a 4-0 start thanks to head coach Lance Leipold and electric quarterback Jalon Daniels, who is must-see TV.
That said, the love has gone a bit too far after the Jayhawks have covered each of their first four games with two outright upsets as touchdown-plus dogs.
Last year, Iowa State beat Kansas, 59-7, in a game where it closed as five-touchdown favorites. I know Kansas has been significantly improving since and Iowa State lost a lot of production from last year’s squad, but that’s still an insanely drastic line move.
Kansas still has an absolutely dreadful defense that Iowa State should have no issues moving the ball on. And the Cyclones will be the best defense Daniels has faced by far. The tremendous Iowa State defensive staff also now has plenty of film on Daniels in this offense.
Kansas will certainly get its share of points, but Iowa State should make a few more key stops. The Jayhawks also have a bit of regression coming their way in a number of categories.
Notable Nugget: As an underdog or favorite of three or less, Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell owns a gaudy 34-18 ATS record (65.4%), covering by almost five points per game on average. Only Brian Kelly has been more profitable in those situations among current head coaches. That also includes an absurd 26-12 ATS mark (68.4%) against Big 12 opponents with an average coverage margin of 6.8 points!
Texas A&M +3.5 at Mississippi State
4 p.m. ET · SEC Network
I’ve had this spot circled since the beginning of the season, and it’s only strengthened over the past two weeks.
Texas A&M just picked up two rather fortunate wins over Miami and Arkansas. The Aggies were outgained in both contests by a combined yardage total of 807-607 but benefited from a few self-inflicted wounds from both the Hogs and Canes.
Plus, that Miami win looks a lot less impressive after it got handled by Middle Tennessee last week.
Jimbo Fisher’s bunch now must stay focused for a trip to Cowbell Town one week ahead of the highly-anticipated showdown with Alabama that got more hype in the preseason than any other regular-season matchup. Sandwich city.
I can’t see the Texas A&M offense having much success here, especially after losing its best playmaker and wideout in Ainias Smith to a season-ending injury.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State likely spent most of the past two weeks preparing for this matchup after a “gimme” against Bowling Green last weekend.
In this same exact spot last year (after Arkansas and before Alabama), Texas A&M got upset at home by the Bulldogs. In that game, quarterback Will Rogers carved up the Aggies, completing 46-of-59 passes for 408 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions.
Notable Nugget: Since 2015, Jimbo Fisher has gone 28-11-1 (71.8%) to the under in road games by an average of over five points per game. He’s the most profitable road under coach among 455 in our Action Labs database over that span, just ahead of two coaches who will also hit the road this weekend in Mark Stoops (Kentucky) and Mike Gundy (Oklahoma State).
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Syracuse vs. Wagner
5 p.m. ET · ESPN+
Syracuse pulled out a second-straight nail-biter in comeback fashion to improve to 4-0 on the season. Now, it welcomes in 0-3 FCS Wagner ahead of two dates with top-10 ACC foes (NC State and Clemson).
Look, Wagner is absolutely dreadful in every facet. Similar to the pro team, these Seahawks play no defense whatsoever.
However, I’m bringing this up for the same reason I mentioned UConn last week against NC State, which had a similar gauntlet to follow. Just like the Wolfpack did against the Huskies, Cuse will likely shut everything down in the second half with a primary focus of just getting out of this one healthy.
Therefore, there might be value on Wagner pregame, but the 2H spread (and/or under) might be the better look.
Notable Nugget: Wagner has lost 23 straight games, including a 66-7 defeat at the hands of Rutgers earlier this season. For reference, it lost to bad Temple and Buffalo squads last year by a combined score of 110-14.
Washington State -4 vs. California
5:30 p.m. ET · Pac-12 Network
Can Washington State get up off the mat after blowing a 12-point lead midway through the fourth quarter against Oregon? It will have to on the Palouse against a Cal team that looks better than preseason projections in a classic sandwich spot with USC on deck.
Notable Nugget: During his tenure as head coach of Cal, Justin Wilcox is 14-5 ATS (73.7%) as a road underdog, covering by a hair short of three points per game.
This is a potential letdown spot for the Miners after pulling off a monumental upset over Boise State in El Paso last week. Meanwhile, Charlotte will try to bounce back from a blowout loss at South Carolina.
I believe the market is completely overreacting to those two results.
The UTEP win said more about the state of Boise State football, while Charlotte pulled star quarterback Chris Reynolds after a big hit early in the second half. Head coach Will Healy noted he just wanted to ensure his health ahead of conference play.
Reynolds presumably being good to go is paramount for the 49ers, who are completely lost without him. In the only game he started and finished in 2022, Reynolds threw for six touchdowns en route to an outright win at Georgia State as three-touchdown underdogs.
With one of the best wide receiver rooms at the Group of Five level, Reynolds should shred a very poor UTEP secondary, especially since it doesn’t appear wind will be a major issue.
Everybody has suddenly forgotten this same UTEP team lost, 27-10, at New Mexico two weeks ago. This is still one of the worst offenses in the country with star wide receiver Jacob Cowing no longer around to bail the Miners out on third downs.
I think the wrong team is favored, assuming Reynolds starts and finishes this contest.
Notable Nugget: UTEP is 0-26-1 in the eastern time zone in program history
Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: UTEP Miners football helmets.
Western Kentucky -5 vs. Troy
7 p.m. ET · ESPN+
I think this is a good opportunity to bet on a flawed perception difference between these two teams.
Yes, Western Kentucky has covered three straight against FBS foes en route to a 3-1 start, but its three victories have come against Hawaii, FIU and Austin Peay. The former pair are arguably the two worst FBS teams in the country and might not be in the top 200 if FCS clubs are included. Austin Peay is actually the best of that trio and gave the Hilltoppers a game.
Meanwhile, Troy sits at just 2-2 but has played an exponentially tougher schedule. If not for a miraculous Hail Mary as time expired, the Trojans would boast a 3-1 record with wins over Marshall and Appalachian State with the lone loss coming at Ole Miss.
The Trojans have one of the best defenses at the Group of Five level, led by stud linebacker Carlton Martial, who will likely break the FBS record for career tackles this year. They should serve as a rude awakening for this WKU team that has played nothing but cupcakes.
Lastly, quarterback Jarret Doege transferred from WKU to Troy right before the season started. I’m sure he can share some valuable trade secrets, as Troy head coach Jon Sumrall alluded to this week.
Arizona -17.5 vs. Colorado
9:30 p.m. ET · Pac-12 Network
This looks like a potential sleepy look-ahead spot for the Wildcats against a dreadful Colorado team.
Arizona not only could come out a bit flat against an inferior opponent, but I’m sure head coach Jedd Fisch isn’t too worried about running this up (or showing too much) with the following games on deck:
vs. Oregon
at Washington
vs. USC
at Utah
That’s as crazy as it gets in the Pac-12.
I admittedly struggled to hit submit when I had Colorado up on my bet slip. However, I just can’t get to this number, and there are two reasons why this could mark the bottom of the market for Colorado.
Colorado turned to its third starting quarterback in four games last week in Owen McCown — son of longtime NFL signal-caller Josh McCown — who performed admirably in his first career start. The Buffaloes had their best passing output in almost two years.
The Buffaloes’ run defense is a Rocky Mountain horror show, but it should get a break this week against Arizona after facing four top-tier rushing attacks to start the season.
Hopefully, we can catch the falling knife here with Colorado.
Notable Nugget: Since 2005, road teams in Game No. 5 that have yet to cover a game have compiled a 48-27-1 ATS (64%) record, covering by 4.4 points per game on average.
The first round of the Sanderson Farms Championship kicked off Thursday from the Country Club of Jackson and it was a rare opening round that saw the afternoon wave with nearly a full stroke advantage over the morning tee times. There was some wind in the morning, but it seemed like the cool conditions to start the day were more of a factor.
Andrew Putnam was the first to get in at 5-under in the morning portion of the day, but was later matched by two Korn Ferry graduates in Kevin Yu and Brandon Matthews. They would later be matched by four afternoon tee times and passed by both Davis Riley and Will Gordon. The latter two would get in at 6-under and will take a one-shot lead into their Friday morning tee times.
Overall, the leaderboard is packed with 67 players within five shots of the lead going into Round 2. There will be a lot of movement heading into the weekend and it should present us with plenty of betting value before they tee it up on Friday.
Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer has truly played by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.
Using the millions of data points it collects, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field.
Every situation in golf is different. Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.
In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics:
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
Strokes Gained: Putting
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
In general, SG: Ball Striking and SG: Tee-to-Green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility.
You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well, but are just not getting putts to drop. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.
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3 Golfers to Buy in Round 2
If I were going to the top of the board, names like Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Mark Hubbard would be on the short list, but I’m not taking a shot on numbers that short this early in the week. Instead, I’ll drop down to the value on Nick Hardy, who is 2-under after the first round.
Hardy gained more than four shots on the field with his ball striking on Thursday, including 2.65 on approach. He was sharp in both aspects of his game and was really only held back by his play on and around the greens. The 26-year-old out of Illinois has one career top 10 at this level and had three top-25 finishes in five starts on the Korn Ferry Tour last season. Hardy has the talent to compete and win in a field like this and at +9000 on DraftKings, he has some value going into Round 2.
I could nearly copy and paste everything from Hardy for my next buy with Lee Hodges. Though Hodges was even better on approach, ranking second in the field with his irons. Hodges has a little more experience in contention on Tour than Hardy as he contended to the end at the American Express in January and was able to add another top 10 last season. He has shown an ability to compete on courses like this one, where he gets a lot of opportunities with his wedges. He’s also listed at +9000, so Hodges has some value to be there through the weekend.
If we want to go really deep, I’ll drop down just one shot, but to +20000 on Austin Eckroat, who shot a one-under 71 on Thursday. My sell on Eckroat is that he started really poorly with bogeys on both of his first two holes and another following two birdies at the 6th. He would eventually get the ship headed in the right direction, gaining 1.24 shots on approach across his back nine after losing more than half a shot with his irons on the front. These odds, going into Friday, are simply too long in my view and he seems to have some momentum going.
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3 Golfers to Fade in Round 2
The easiest fade from a numbers perspective going into Friday is with S.H. Kim. He lost more than a shot to the field with his irons in the opening round and made up for it with a great short game. He gained 1.57 shots around the green, which is a category most contenders won’t need this week. I feel good that if he keeps struggling on approach, he will have a tough time maintaining his current spot in the top 10.
Speaking of gaining shots around the green, I present you Brandon Wu. He gained 3.35 shots on the field in that metric on Thursday as he holed out from off the green not once or twice, but three times. When we add in a hole-in-one, it becomes quite a wild ride during the round from the former Stanford Cardinal. Unfortunately, even with gaining more than two shots on approach with his ace, he still lost shots to the field in that category overall. That really highlights his struggles with his irons and ball striking, which leads me to fade him heading into Friday.
When I think of Martin Laird, I think of a player who is usually strong with his ball striking and you just hope he can do enough on the greens to contend. Thursday was the opposite as he lost strokes to the field on approach and gained more than three shots on the greens. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him quickly turn his ball striking in the right direction on Friday, but the 129th ranked player in SG: Putting last season is also due for some serious regression on the greens.
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The Mountain West has been nothing short of a disaster to begin the 2022 season and two of its top underperformers will meet in Boise on Friday night.
Following a loss to UTEP last week, Boise State quarterback Hank Bachmeier entered the transfer portal. The Broncos also fired offensive coordinator Tim Plough and are looking for a fresh start with a new OC and quarterback.
San Diego State did manage to beat Toledo, but it was an uninspiring performance offensively from the Aztecs. They broke a couple of big runs and scored in the final minutes to beat Toledo at home, 17-14, but it proved to be another lackluster passing performance from transfer quarterback Braxton Burmeister.
Given how much the league is struggling as a whole, the conference remains wide open. Neither team is out of the picture despite terrible nonconference showings.
Boise State has a lot more uncertainty with the changes on offense, but it’s hard to imagine things getting worse than they were last week. This presents a good buy-low spot on the Broncos.
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San Diego State Aztecs
The Aztecs have one of the highest rush rates in the entire country, and it’s just about the only way they’ve moved the ball offensively this season.
San Diego State may have beaten Toledo, but Burmeister finished the game 13-of-25 for 65 passing yards. That brings his season-long total to 230 yards on 65 attempts (3.6 per attempt) with two touchdowns and two interceptions.
San Diego State ranks 131st in Passing Success Rate. Yes, dead last. If it gets stuck behind the chains, the Aztecs have almost no chance of converting in obvious passing-down situations without flukes.
They do have a decent rushing attack, but it’s very hard to run the ball on Boise State’s defense. While SDSU ranks 49th in Rushing Success Rate, the Boise defense that ranks top-30 in both Rushing Success Rate Allowed and Defensive Line Yards.
Look back at Boise’s game against Oregon State — outside of one long run that the run-heavy Beavers broke, Boise did an excellent job bottling up OSU’s top two rushers to just 79 yards on 21 combined carries.
Burmeister also registered his worst passing grade of the season against Toledo last start. He has one big-time throw and three turnover-worthy plays to this point in the year.
Boise brought in former Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach and former Boise State head coach Dirk Koetter to try to improve the Broncos offense. Koetter was helping as an offensive analyst to this point in the season, but the word out of Boise is that he’s now running the entire offense his way.
He’s chosen to simplify the quarterback’s job at the line of scrimmage and make the reads and checks at the line easier. 6-foot-6 quarterback Taylen Green will make his first career start for the Broncos after he came on in relief against Oregon State in Week 1.
Green finished that game 19-of-27 for 155 yards and one interception. The offensive line and receiving room are pretty underwhelming at Boise right now, but Green could potentially use his legs to extend plays and create some offense in a game that doesn’t expect to have much of it.
The Broncos probably won’t find much success running the ball in this game against the SDSU front, even though this is not the same elite Aztec defensive line from years prior.
San Diego State vs. Boise State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how San Diego State and Boise State match up statistically:
It’s nearly impossible to be worse than the Broncos offense was against UTEP last week. The decision to fire Plough, combined with Bachmeier’s transfer, may end up being addition through subtraction.
Koetter has experience running offenses at the NFL and collegiate levels. Even if the talent isn’t up to par, you’d expect an inspired, all-in Boise effort for this Friday night home conference opener.
Boise’s defense shouldn’t have any issues at all stopping SDSU’s rushing attack and completely shutting down any Aztec offense.
The real question is whether or not the Broncos can really get out to a margin. A week ago, I’d have probably said no.
But a new week, a new quarterback and a new coordinator have me willing to buy low on this offense. Given that San Diego State ranks so poorly in tackling grades, per PFF, it wouldn’t take much for the Broncos to break a big play or two and get separation in this game.
After its biggest win in program history (upsetting the Miami Hurricanes), Middle Tennessee looks to carry momentum into its Conference USA opener.
The Blue Raiders entered against Miami (FL) as 25.5-point underdogs and came out with a 45-31 victory thanks to explosive plays in the passing game. Quarterback Chase Cunningham threw for 408 yards, including touchdown passes of 98, 69 and 71 yards.
The program looks to extend its three-game win streak as it opens Conference USA play against the reigning champions UTSA.
The Roadrunners finished 2-2 in non-conference play, with their two losses coming to Houston and Texas. Their matchup against Houston went to triple overtime before the game was decided by two-point conversions.
Can Middle Tennessee continue its upset streak, or will the reigning Conference USA champions douse the flames under the Friday night lights?
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UTSA Roadrunners
UTSA went to overtime in its first two games of the season, which were split against Houston and Army.
The Roadrunners’ tired legs caught up to them in the second half against Texas, as they lost 41-20.
Last week, the program bounced back with a 52-24 victory over Texas Southern.
The one constant between all four matchups is that the defense has looked suspect. UTSA has allowed all three FBS offenses to exceed 37 points on offense, and even Texas Southern put up 24 points.
The defense is allowing six yards per play and more than 440 yards of total offense this season.
Now they matchup against a Blue Raiders offense that is capable of scoring on any play through its deep-ball threats.
Meanwhile, it’s been business as usual for a Roadrunners offense that is averaging 37 points per game. The unit ranks 15th in the nation in Success Rate and top-40 in Explosiveness and Points Per Opportunity.
That success has mainly been driven by the arm of quarterback Frank Harris. The redshirt senior quarterback has been slinging it this season, averaging 39 pass attempts per game and 8.5 yards on such attempts.
He’s amounted 10 touchdowns to go along with two interceptions, and has proven to be a dual-threat, averaging 5.5 yards per carry.
The Roadrunners have been seriously hit by the injury bug. Entering this matchup with question marks surrounding the offensive line is a major cause for concern.
UTSA Head Coach Jeff Traylor said on the radio this afternoon that they’ve moved 2 defensive linemen to the offensive line.
Middle Tennessee entered this season with a cumulative power rating that sat near the bottom in the nation. The program lost its opening matchup in embarrassing fashion to James Madison by a score of 44-7.
But the Blue Raiders have bounced back in a big way with three victories in a row. Two of those wins came as double-digit underdogs, as they upset Colorado State (+13.5) 34-19 and Miami (+25.5) 45-31.
Those victories can be attributed to the offense catching fire through the passing game.
Cunningham threw for only 110 yards on his 32 pass attempts (3.4 YPA) in that Week 1 loss. But over the three-game winning streak, the redshirt senior has thrown for an average of 297 yards and 10.1 yards per pass attempt.
The Blue Raiders’ defense has been strong since its Week 1 blunder to James Madison.
The defensive front has stopped the run, allowing just 2.5 yards per carry and ranking 18th in Line Yards. It ranks among the top-5 in the nation after accumulating 35 tackles for loss through the first four games.
But the secondary is the main question mark, and will be attacked all night by Harris. The Blue Raiders are allowing 250 yards and 7.0 yards per passing attempt. Of the 13 touchdowns the defense has allowed, 11 have come through the air.
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UTSA vs. Middle Tennessee Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UTSA and Middle Tennessee match up statistically:
I believe this matchup being on a short week is going to hurt Middle Tennessee and play into UTSA’s favor.
The Blue Raiders are coming off the biggest upset in the program’s history and surely celebrated that victory throughout the week.
Now with a short week, it will leave them in a tough position to rebound quickly for this matchup against a tough conference foe.
If you look at the top-five biggest upsets of the season, the following week that team has gone 0-5 against the spread, failing to cover by an average of two touchdowns.
Meanwhile, UTSA is coming off of a glorified bye week against an FCS opponent.
Harris has led the UTSA offense into one of the more reliable groups in the country through the first four games. The Roadrunners put up 35 on Houston, 41 on Army, 52 on Texas Southern and 17 in the first half on Texas. They rank among the top-25 in Passing Success Rate and Havoc created.
The Roadrunners will limit the explosive plays and will overwhelm the Blue Raiders offensively.
Week 5 of the college football season brings with it a mountain of intriguing games for fans and investors.
We’ll take any football we can get, but it’s a nice change of pace after a few weeks that featured lackluster matchups as the headline-grabbing games.
It all starts with a rematch of last season’s Big Ten Championship, as Iowa looks to secure an upset over another top-five team in Michigan at Kinnick Stadium.
Also in the noon matchup is Oklahoma vs. TCU. The Sooners hope to get back on track after suffering a loss to Kansas State in Norman last week, while the Horned Frogs attempt to start Big 12 play undefeated.
In the 3:30 p.m. ET window comes a matchup that likely would have been a top-10 battle if Arkansas could’ve survived a neutral-site contest against Texas A&M last week. Things won’t get any easier this week against Nick Saban’s Alabama team.
NC State vs. Clemson wraps up my big-game card and represents one of the most important games on the slate from a futures perspective.
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
Michigan vs. Iowa
Saturday, Oct. 1
12 p.m. ET
FOX
Iowa +11 · Over 41
A rematch of 2021’s Big Ten Championship game is set to kick from Kinnick Stadium on Saturday.
Michigan had all of the momentum after defeating Ohio State with all eyes forward to a trip to the College Football Playoff. The result was nothing close to the desired target for the Hawkeyes, who lost 42-3 thanks in part to a Wolverines defensive line that dominated the game.
Fast forward to Week 5 of 2022, and Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh believes the game in Kinnick will be a ‘knock down, drag out’ affair.
Michigan struggled to put Maryland away as 17-point favorites last week, despite scoring on the first offensive play of the game and being gifted a trio of turnovers.
The Wolverines allowed Maryland to score 27 points on drives that extended past the 40-yard line as the defense posted a subpar performance from a Havoc perspective.
Iowa has continued to be one of the most opportunistic teams in the nation when it comes to opponent mistakes. A pick-six and scoop-and-score highlighted a win over Rutgers that just went over the closing total.
The offense continues to struggle, having yet to pass for more than 175 yards in any game.
The Hawkeyes will look to keep this game close, as a handful of meetings against Michigan in Iowa City have finished within one possession.
Harbaugh ran up the score in nonconference play against UConn, Hawaii and Colorado State. None of those teams had the offense to question whether or not the Michigan defense would still be the biggest chaos creators in college football after the loss of Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo.
Those answers were clear in present in the narrow victory over Maryland. The Terrapins racked up nearly 400 total yards as five different receiving targets recorded an explosive catch.
Converted wide receiver Mike Sainristil provided the bulk of the Havoc numbers with two tackles for loss and a sack.
Michigan DB Mike Sainristil is quickly adjusting to his new position and making an early impact! pic.twitter.com/mUKITM7AXj
Despite the heroics of Sainristil, the Michigan defense has struggled to create disruptions for opposing offenses. The Wolverines rank just 72nd in Defensive Havoc, highlighted by just a single forced fumble and an uncharacteristically low ranking in tackles for loss.
The defense is still the standard in college football against the pass, ranking as the top overall coverage team, per PFF.
Quarterback JJ McCarthy continues to receive snaps under center with Cade McNamara’s injury. McCarthy cruised in nonconference play, but fumbles — he recorded two against Maryland — continue to limit the Michigan coaches in calling designed runs.
The possible return of Donovan Edwards would simultaneously take the rushing load off Blake Corum and alleviate any designed plays for McCarthy on the ground.
Michigan has been excellent at putting points on the board in sustained drives, averaging 5.3 points on 31 trips past opponents’ 40-yard line.
Iowa Hawkeyes
The animadversion of Iowa football has always centered around the offense and the play-calling of coordinator Brian Ferentz. The Hawkeyes always aim to fill the identity of a bruising offensive line as a gateway to a run-first attack.
Asking a quarterback to limit turnover-worthy plays in passing downs is also key to the Iowa offense. Quarterback Spencer Petras did just that against Rutgers, going 11-of-17 for 148 yards in his first game without a turnover-worthy play this season.
With 28 targets on the season, tight end Sam LaPorta will be the biggest threat to Michigan’s back seven.
Running back Kaleb Johnson has the most explosive plays from the backfield, averaging 3.3 yards after contact primarily on zone-read runs.
While the Iowa offense continues to piece together minimal production, the Hawkeyes defense has terrorized opponents throughout the month of September.
A top-10 rank in coverage and Line Yards suggests there’s no easy path against this defense. A top-20 rank in Havoc is assisted by 24 pass breakups on the season.
For the front seven, defensive interior Lukas Van Ness is the highest-graded player with 10 quarterback hurries on the season.
Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: The Michigan Wolverines’ offensive line (left) and the Iowa Hawkeyes’ defensive line (right).
Michigan vs. Iowa Betting Pick
This Big Ten collision featured two defenses that rarely make mistakes. Both Michigan and Iowa rank top-10 in opponent plays greater than 10 yards. The Wolverines and Hawkeyes are also two of the best teams in terms of tackle grading and coverage, per PFF.
While the bulk of that production came against a soft strength of schedule, the handicap for Iowa is limiting Michigan’s rushing attack.
The Wolverines have one of the heaviest rush rates at 61% with a rank of 33rd in run blocking. The Hawkeyes’ front seven should have success, pulling a top-10 rank in Defensive Line Yards.
Iowa is the top defense in the nation in terms of limiting the explosive play, and a passing downs rate ranking of third means teams are unsuccessful in early-down attempts.
Michigan sits 60th in pass blocking — an area Iowa can exploit by flushing McCarthy out of the pocket for the purpose of creating fumbles. The Michigan quarterback has a tenured history with ball protection, which Iowa has been happy to expose against previous opponents.
Michigan’s offense on Iowa’s defense is strength-on-strength, but a potential cover may rely on Iowa’s ability to sustain drives and score on offense. The Wolverines have fallen to 66th in Defensive Finishing Drives, alongside a Havoc rank of 72nd.
The Hawkeyes will attempt to run on the Michigan defense with Gavin Williams, Leshon Williams and Johnson.
Action Network projects Michigan -10 with a total of 47, as the spread is in line with the current market.
A number of 11 or better gives Iowa value, but there’s also value in the totals market. The key numbers in this rank are 45 and 41, each hitting in more than 2.75% of college football games. Considering McCarthy’s penchant for putting the football on the carpet, there are defensive and special teams touchdowns in play for Iowa.
Look for Michigan to pound the rock and get a half-dozen drives past the 40-yard line, where the offense ranks 11th in points per scoring opportunity. Iowa will counter with a run game against a Michigan front seven that ranks 62nd in Stuff Rate.
There’s nothing pretty about the Iowa offense, but generating enough points to cover and hit over the key of 41 is well within reach.
Pick: Iowa +11 or Better · Over 41 (-120 or Better)
As the season approaches the month of October, the Big 12 is completely upside down. Texas Tech, Kansas, Baylor and Kansas State are undefeated in conference play, while Texas and Oklahoma have started off league play 0-1.
This makes the Sooners’ date with TCU nearly a must win if there are desires to make the conference championship game.
Oklahoma had no answers for the Kansas State offense last week. The Wildcats posted touchdowns on their first and last two drives of the game, never allowing the Sooners to lead.
Head coach Brent Venables is known as the best defensive mind in college football, but the Oklahoma defense did not have the personnel to stop a dual-threat quarterback.
Adrian Martinez tallied 148 rushing yards and four touchdowns to go along with 234 yards and a single score from the air.
Meanwhile, Sonny Dykes is flourishing as the new head coach of TCU, beating his former squad SMU, 42-34. Despite playing just three games, the Horned Frogs already rank in the top 10 in long offensive rushing plays.
Gone is the Gary Patterson era of erratic defensive play, as the new defensive staff has improved execution in tackling and defending the pass.
TCU is back on track as a feared squad in the Big 12, but contending for the conference requires a win against Oklahoma.
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Oklahoma Sooners
Venables spent the entire summer changing the mindset of the Oklahoma roster. The former Clemson coordinator wanted a blue-collar grittiness associated with the defense, an element that was missing from the Lincoln Riley regime.
The current Oklahoma roster did not have anyone capable of stopping the Kansas State offensive line or skill-position players.
The Sooners continue to struggle against the rush, ranking 110th in Line Yards. The Wildcats implemented a heavy ground rush, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. Martinez went for 3.6 yards after contact, while Deuce Vaughn had five carries go over 10 yards. Both players were untouched on a number of attempts.
As Oklahoma looks for answers on defense, the offense put up 550 yards, with a healthy 7.5 yards per play. The Sooners prefer an up-tempo pace at 21.2 seconds per play, but their struggles on third down — combined with penalties — kept them off the board for three of their first four offensive drives.
Coordinator Jeff Lebby is getting the most out of the offense, ranking top-20 in nearly every analytical category. This is one of the most explosive offenses in Standard Downs, and is led by quarterback Dillon Gabriel.
Gabriel has yet to throw an interception or log a Turnover Worthy Play. Furthermore, the fourth-year quarterback has a minimal drop in adjusted completion percentage with pressure.
The targets for the Sooners have dropped just one pass a game, but there is still meat on the bone when it comes to passing downs. On second- or third-and-long, Oklahoma ranks 41st in Success Rate and 99th in Explosiveness.
TCU Horned Frogs
Dykes has the offense humming, as quarterback Max Duggan leads the nation in passer efficiency rating.
Oklahoma transfer Chandler Morris started the season as the Horned Frogs’ signal caller, but injury has opened the gateway for Duggan to shred opposing offenses.
Morris is expected to be ready for action against Oklahoma, but the kickstarter for the offense is pair of running backs, Kendre Miller and Emari Demercado.
Demercado has posted a ridiculous 5.3 yards after contact, while Miller has produced 11 missed tackles and eight runs of 10 yards or more.
If there is a player that defenders on the Oklahoma side do not want to see, its TCU wide receiver Quentin Johnston. The junior posted 185 receiving yards and three touchdowns last season, but has yet to bust out during the 2022 season.
The questions on the Horned Frogs’ roster begin on defense. A rank of 114th in Finishing Drives indicates coordinator Joe Gillespie does not have this unit executing at a high level.
There have been 14 opponent drives to cross the TCU 40-yard line with an average of 4.6 points per scoring attempt. There is also a severe lack of Havoc, as the unit has recorded just five sacks on the season.
Oklahoma allowed a score on seven of 12 Kansas State drives while posting 11 penalties. The Sooners had more total yards on less plays in the loss, but allowing an opponent to convert half of their third- and fourth-down attempts is a recipe for a loss in a shootout.
There are plenty of expectations that TCU and Oklahoma will be a shootout between an up-tempo Sooners offense and an explosive Frogs team.
The Action Network projects a spread of a pick’em with a total of 71. The market has steamed on the over from the opener of 66 to the doorstep of 69 — both numbers are key in this range.
Both teams are top-30 in Offensive Finishing Drives, with lackluster numbers in the same category on defense.
Both offenses have scored 11 touchdowns on 15 red-zone trips, indicating Venables and Dykes are more willing to go for the end zone than settle for a field goal.
The steam on the total is justified, as neither defense is equipped to stop the opposing offense.
Are there expectations that the Sooners will rebound defensively? Venables did not sound confident in his weekly press conference, noting the lack of depth at linebacker — and freshman reserves likely will not see the field.
There have been issues with slow starts not just against Kansas State, but in previous games (vs. Kent State).
With this game scheduled for an 11 a.m. local kick, Venables must conquer a roster that is not tackling, nor controlling the trench against the run.
Look for Duggan and TCU to match Gabriel and the Sooners score-for-score, giving plenty of value to the home Frogs.
The Razorbacks return from Arlington deflated from an SEC loss to Texas A&M. The Razorbacks had a 70% post-game win expectancy, but a goal-line fumble and touchdown return — alongside a last-minute field goal botch — sealed the victory for the Aggies.
No single source was the reason for the loss, as head coach Sam Pittman pointed to offensive play calling, ball security and tackling as the primary issues facing the Hogs.
Two consecutive weeks of mistake football against Texas A&M and Missouri State may give the coaching staff and players motivation for the biggest game on their schedule.
Alabama has been sweat free since a previous road trip to Austin, when it barely beat Texas. The Crimson Tide blasted through ULM and Vanderbilt to the combined score of 118-10.
Both the offense and defense have been stellar out of the locker room, outscoring opponents 107-9 in the first and third quarters through four games this season.
Head coach Nick Saban was complimentary of Arkansas, noting the Razorbacks were dangerous team.
Alabama’s goals are clear for this trip to Fayetteville, defend the Hogs’ ground attack and take away one of the best power quarterbacks in the nation.
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Alabama Crimson Tide
Saban continues to look for an identity on offense.
The passing game was non-existent against Texas, as running back Jahmyr Gibbs had twice as many catches than any wide receiver.
The Crimson Tide had more rushing yards than passing yards after three games to start the season.
In Week 4 against Vanderbilt, Bryce Young returned to Heisman numbers, with 385 yards passing and four touchdowns.
12 different targets caught a pass against the Commodores, establishing balance back to the Crimson Tide offense.
Ja’Corey Brooks leads the team in explosiveness, with 2.4 yards per route run from 60 snaps lined up as a wideout.
Jermaine Burton leads the team in snaps from the slot, but the versatility of Traeshon Holden to lineup anywhere on the field has helped him log more first downs than any other receiver.
Combine that with the rushing of Jase McClellan and Gibbs, and Alabama is one of the most balanced attacks in FBS.
The stiffest test for the defense came against the onslaught of Quinn Ewers and Texas. In limited action thanks to injury, Ewers connected on 9-of-12 attempts for 134 yards.
More importantly, Alabama was able to shut down one of the best running backs in the nation in that game, as Bijan Robinson logged just 2.7 yards per carry.
Coordinator Pete Golding has another top defense, with a top-10 ranking against the rush and a top-20 ranking in coverage.
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Bryce Young.
Arkansas Razorbacks
There may not be a single Razorback looking forward to this Alabama game more than transfer linebacker Drew Sanders.
After spending his first two seasons as a member of the Crimson Tide, Sanders elected to hit the portal for Arkansas.
Sanders has benefitted from a defense that allows him to stand up rather than have a hand down pre-snap. The third-year linebacker ranks fourth nationally among his position group in pass-rush grading, per PFF.
Arkansas linebacker Drew Sanders is playing as good as any defensive player in the country. He has collected 5.5 sacks in 3 games.
He's a big-time athlete who's a major weapon both as a pass rusher and run defender. He has 1st round potential. pic.twitter.com/NR0shJyQsO
The return of Myles Slusher to the back seven was a needed boost for Arkansas against Texas A&M. The Razorbacks recorded their lowest number of missed tackles on the season — 12 against the Aggies, down from 21 versus Missouri State.
Coordinator Barry Odom collected another three sacks to continue leading the nation with a rising Havoc rank in the top 20.
While Slusher was an important returning piece, running back Dominique Johnson’s return to the Arkansas backfield last weekend after rehab from an offseason knee injury was key.
Coordinator Kendal Briles has an offense that lives and dies by the play of KJ Jefferson. The temperamental play of the fourth-year quarterback has been responsible for victory, and indirectly the cause of defeat against Texas A&M.
Both Briles and Jefferson took heat for a quarterback dive on first down that resulted in the biggest play of the game in Week 4.
Jefferson has fumbled five times on 48 carries this season. In previous seasons, there were a total of 10 fumbles on 143 rushing attempts.
Passing downs have seen no drop off in Big Time Throw-to-Turnover Worthy Play Rate despite losing a top weapon from last season. However, Jefferson’s ball protection in designed runs has hindered the Razorbacks.
With the return of Johnson and the continued play of Rashod Dubinion, there are options to give Raheim Sanders a spell without running Jefferson.
Alabama vs. Arkansas Betting Pick
Saban stated during his weekly press conference that there is a philosophical approach to how games will play out. The script in the first and third quarters have resulted in more than 100 points, but the plan of attack is determined pre-game.
Saban explicitly stated, “We thought spreading Vanderbilt out and making them play in space would be an advantage for us.”
In game planning for Arkansas, there most certainly is notice of how the Razorbacks’ defense has responded to passing attacks.
Arkansas is 121st in tackling and outside the top 100 in coverage grading. While those numbers did not mean much to the inept passing attack of the Aggies, it means everything to an Alabama team that is thriving as a balanced attack.
The Razorbacks’ defense is 122nd in passing expected points. If the philosophy of the Crimson Tide is to execute passing plays more than rushing plays — similar to Missouri State’s 357 yards — the Hogs’ secondary could be in for a long afternoon.
The Action Network projects this game Alabama -11.5, upgrading Arkansas after box score grading against Texas A&M.
As of this writing, the market has not found resistance to a spread that opened at -14 in some shops. There is value on the Razorbacks’ number anywhere north of 17.
With no end in sight to the steam and a lack of support on Arkansas from investors, the best time to buy into the Razorbacks could be hours before kickoff.
The better bet is on a Crimson Tide team that has advantages at the skill positions in terms of creating missed tackles. If Arkansas elects to blitz Young, there will plenty of dump offs to Gibbs, who has created almost twice as many missed tackles in the passing game compared to his rushing attempts.
There is not a single Razorbacks defender that ranks in the top 100 in coverage grading. Slusher’s versatility may draw Burton from the slot, but Young will be quick to target Brooks on passing downs.
With plenty of preseason steam on NC State, head coach Dave Doeren starts conference play against the biggest name in the conference. For the Wolfpack to win the Atlantic division, they’ll have to conquer a trio of 2-0 teams that await on their remaining schedule.
Florida State, Syracuse and Clemson all pose road blocks to an NC State team that survived non-conference play undefeated. The Wolfpack will not be short on confidence for this one after defeating this Clemson team 52 weeks ago.
While the teams should be the star of the show, Mother Nature looks to play an integral part.
Hurricane Ian made landfall in Florida on Wednesday. The forecast of the storm is to head north on Interstate 95, passing through Clemson Memorial Stadium on Saturday.
As of this writing, heavy rain and gusts of more than 35 miles per hour await at kickoff. Wind generally flows from end zone to end zone, but Ian looks to bring wind in a stiff south-southwest direction that will diagonally affect every pass and kick.
NC State Wolfpack
Doeren was the only head coach in the ACC to keep both coordinators. The continuity in the coaching staff and lack of player turnover helped the Wolfpack survive their opener against East Carolina.
The defense has been excellent since Week 1, allowing less than 160 total yards to both Charleston Southern and UConn. This is the top-ranked defense in the nation in terms of Passing Success Rate from a schedule that includes Texas Tech.
The top-20 Havoc ranking is powered by 23 apiece in pass breakups and tackles for loss.
A top-30 ranking against the rush is also a plus for the defense, especially with Doeren having previously coached in these weather conditions.
Hurricane Matthew passed through the Carolinas in 2016, interrupting a 10-3 NC State win over Notre Dame. Doeren recalled the affair where the pass-based offense tallied just 14 drop backs.
The Wolfpack have been a balanced offense, ranking top-40 in both Line Yards and Passing Success Rate.
Quarterback Devin Leary has nine touchdowns to just two interceptions, but the advanced numbers tell a different story. Leary logged three Turnover Worthy Plays against UConn, though just one resulted in an interception.
The fourth-year signal caller has the lowest Big Time Throw rate of his career, and generated nothing against a Texas Tech defense that is 93rd in coverage.
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Clemson Tigers
Wake Forest took the Tigers to double overtime and lost when Sam Hartman failed to gain a first down on targets to Blake Whiteheart and A.T. Perry. The Demon Deacons took control in the second half as Hartman chopped up a Clemson secondary that was missing several players.
Both safety Andrew Mukuba and corner Sheridan Jones have returned to the depth chart, a must-needed boost for a defense that ranks 70th in coverage.
The secondary may improve from an experience and depth perspective, but this game could be all about the rush defense.
Power Five offenses have been held in check by Clemson, as Georgia Tech and Wake Forest combined for 183 total rushing yards.
This is the second-best defense in terms of limiting the explosive rush, allowing just one attempt to exceed 20 yards. The Tigers are playing behind the line of scrimmage, logging the 12th-most tackles for loss.
The Clemson offense has been just as productive on the ground. Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei is a power back in the run game, gaining 155 yards on designed plays. His weight loss over the summer has translated to a higher rate of scramble yards and an astronomical increase in missed tackles created.
Uiagalelei had just 14 missed tackles in 110 rushing attempts prior to this season. That number has already increased this season, with 18 missed tackles created on just 28 rushing attempts.
Those numbers have been overlooked after a career passing day against Wake Forest.
This game is expected to be a sloppy affair determined by ball protection and the play in the trenches. The arm strength of both Uiagalelei and Leary may not matter with forecasted gusts of 40 miles per hour.
While both teams have two lost fumbles, it’s the Clemson defense that plays behind the line of scrimmage with more frequency.
Furthermore, tackling is important in every college football game, but becomes a bigger point of emphasis through a tropical storm.
The Wolfpack have yet to establish a dominant identity in establishing the rush, with a blocking grade outside the top 50.
While Line Yards belong to the offensive line, highlight yards belong to the running back, and there have been plenty of highlight yards for Demie Sumo-Karngbaye.
The freshman averages 4.9 yards after contact and owns the fifth-highest elusiveness grade of any running back with a minimum of 35 attempts.
Clemson has the advantage in one-on-one tackles, grading 23rd vs. NC State’s 111th ranking in tackle grading per PFF.
The Action Network makes Clemson a touchdown favorite, giving small value to any number south of seven.
Uiagalelei is coming off the best passing game of his career, aiding an already impressive rushing game from a missed tackles perspective.
NC State may be forced to abandon its 3-3-5 principles if the weather dictates a strict diet of rushing attempts from both teams.
Considering Clemson is averaging 5.5 points per scoring opportunity, this game belongs to the Tigers.
As for the total, the key number of 41 is dependent on wind speed. If the wind drops below 20 miles per hour, look for Leary to target a recovering secondary and push this game over the total.
After quite an underwhelming start to the season, the Houston Cougars will look to get conference play started on the right foot when they host the Tulane Green Wave.
But that may be easier said than done against a Green Wave team that has started the season 3-1.
Tulane pulled off a massive upset at Kansas State just two weeks ago. Unfortunately, it followed that up by losing outright to Southern Miss at home last week as a 14-point favorite.
Tulane has not won at Houston since 2014, when it beat the Cougars 31-24. Can it end the drought against a struggling Houston squad? Or will we see the Cougars we expected in the preseason now that conference play has arrived?
The Cougars lead the all-time series 19-7 and more importantly, they are 11-3 when hosting the Green Wave.
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Tulane Green Wave
Tulane looked about as good as it could against Kansas State and nearly as bad as it could against Southern Miss.
Against the Golden Eagles, Tulane had a missed and blocked field goal, as well as a blocked punt. They also gave up four sacks, and quarterback Michael Pratt threw a pick-six.
Now, there are other elements at play here. I don’t think Tulane just turned into a pumpkin in six days time. It was a bad spot coming off of a massive win with another big game that the Green Wave knew they could win on deck.
Not to mention Southern Miss had two big “run-up-the-score” losses to Tulane last year — one in Hattiesburg and one in the Armed Forces Bowl.
The cherry, on top, of course, was the game being SMU head coach and former Tulane offensive coordinator Will Hall’s first trip back to New Orleans.
Some of Tulane’s statical rankings may be influenced by the fact that it has played teams such as Alcorn State and UMass. However, I still think it can take advantage of Houston’s defense.
Houston Cougars
Houston’s most significant advantages against Tulane will be Finishing Drives and Passing Downs. The Cougars rank 34th in Offensive Finishing Drives and scored points in 100% of their trips to the red zone through three games.
The Cougars also rank 48th in Pass Down EPA (expected points added), while the Green Wave are 85th in Pass Down EPA Allowed.
Defensively, Houston will need to make considerable improvements in just four days if it wants to stop the Tulane pass attack. The Cougars rank 65th in Pass Play Explosiveness Allowed and Defensive Explosiveness overall — two areas in which Tulane is among the top three.
In my opinion, Tulane’s ranking as one of the top-10 defenses in the country is due in large part to some of the teams its faced. And I think the Cougars’ offense will have considerable success scoring against it.
Pairing that up with the Houston defense — which ranks among the bottom-25 worst in the country, allowing 449 yards and 48.7 points per game — I feel confident taking the over in this one.
Tulane found itself in a bad spot last week, coming off of a huge upset win and a big game ahead of it in Houston. Now both teams are looking to get things on track with a win, so expect both to lean on their offenses in this one.
I was able to get the over at 54, but I would feel comfortable taking the over at any number 56 or better.
There’s something special about Friday Night Lights, and this Week 5 edition is no exception.
Friday night’s slate features five games from 7 p.m. ET all the way through 11 p.m. From an over/under play in Tulane vs. Houston to two underdog picks in Washington vs. UCLA and New Mexico vs. UNLV, we have you covered.
Check out all five of our bets for Friday night’s college football slate below — and be sure to check back tomorrow for even more college football betting coverage.
Let’s start the weekend on a high note.
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Our Bets for Friday’s College Football Games
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
After quite an underwhelming start to the season, the Houston Cougars will look to get conference play started on the right foot when they host the Tulane Green Wave.
But that may be easier said than done against a Green Wave team that has started the season 3-1.
Tulane pulled off a massive upset at Kansas State just two weeks ago. Unfortunately, it followed that up by losing outright to Southern Miss at home last week as a 14-point favorite.
Tulane has not won at Houston since 2014, when it beat the Cougars 31-24. Can it end the drought against a struggling Houston squad? Or will we see the Cougars we expected in the preseason now that conference play has arrived?
The Cougars lead the all-time series 19-7 and more importantly, they are 11-3 when hosting the Green Wave.
Tulane looked about as good as it could against Kansas State and nearly as bad as it could against Southern Miss.
Against the Golden Eagles, Tulane had a missed and blocked field goal, as well as a blocked punt. They also gave up four sacks, and quarterback Michael Pratt threw a pick-six.
Now, there are other elements at play here. I don’t think Tulane just turned into a pumpkin in six days time. It was a bad spot coming off of a massive win with another big game that the Green Wave knew they could win on deck.
Not to mention Southern Miss had two big “run-up-the-score” losses to Tulane last year — one in Hattiesburg and one in the Armed Forces Bowl.
The cherry, on top, of course, was the game being SMU head coach and former Tulane offensive coordinator Will Hall’s first trip back to New Orleans.
Some of Tulane’s statical rankings may be influenced by the fact that it has played teams such as Alcorn State and UMass. However, I still think it can take advantage of Houston’s defense.
Houston Cougars
Houston’s most significant advantages against Tulane will be Finishing Drives and Passing Downs. The Cougars rank 34th in Offensive Finishing Drives and scored points in 100% of their trips to the red zone through three games.
The Cougars also rank 48th in Pass Down EPA (expected points added), while the Green Wave are 85th in Pass Down EPA Allowed.
Defensively, Houston will need to make considerable improvements in just four days if it wants to stop the Tulane pass attack. The Cougars rank 65th in Pass Play Explosiveness Allowed and Defensive Explosiveness overall — two areas in which Tulane is among the top three.
Tulane vs. Houston Betting Pick
In my opinion, Tulane’s ranking as one of the top-10 defenses in the country is due in large part to some of the teams its faced. And I think the Cougars’ offense will have considerable success scoring against it.
Pairing that up with the Houston defense — which ranks among the bottom-25 worst in the country, allowing 449 yards and 48.7 points per game — I feel confident taking the over in this one.
Tulane found itself in a bad spot last week, coming off of a huge upset win and a big game ahead of it in Houston. Now both teams are looking to get things on track with a win, so expect both to lean on their offenses in this one.
I was able to get the over at 54, but I would feel comfortable taking the over at any number 56 or better.
After its biggest win in program history (upsetting the Miami Hurricanes), Middle Tennessee looks to carry momentum into its Conference USA opener.
The Blue Raiders entered against Miami (FL) as 25.5-point underdogs and came out with a 45-31 victory thanks to explosive plays in the passing game. Quarterback Chase Cunningham threw for 408 yards, including touchdown passes of 98, 69 and 71 yards.
The program looks to extend its three-game win streak as it opens Conference USA play against the reigning champions UTSA.
The Roadrunners finished 2-2 in non-conference play, with their two losses coming to Houston and Texas. Their matchup against Houston went to triple overtime before the game was decided by two-point conversions.
Can Middle Tennessee continue its upset streak, or will the reigning Conference USA champions douse the flames under the Friday night lights?
UTSA went to overtime in its first two games of the season, which were split against Houston and Army.
The Roadrunners’ tired legs caught up to them in the second half against Texas, as they lost 41-20.
Last week, the program bounced back with a 52-24 victory over Texas Southern.
The one constant between all four matchups is that the defense has looked suspect. UTSA has allowed all three FBS offenses to exceed 37 points on offense, and even Texas Southern put up 24 points.
The defense is allowing six yards per play and more than 440 yards of total offense this season.
Now they matchup against a Blue Raiders offense that is capable of scoring on any play through its deep-ball threats.
Meanwhile, it’s been business as usual for a Roadrunners offense that is averaging 37 points per game. The unit ranks 15th in the nation in Success Rate and top-40 in Explosiveness and Points Per Opportunity.
That success has mainly been driven by the arm of quarterback Frank Harris. The redshirt senior quarterback has been slinging it this season, averaging 39 pass attempts per game and 8.5 yards on such attempts.
He’s amounted 10 touchdowns to go along with two interceptions, and has proven to be a dual-threat, averaging 5.5 yards per carry.
The Roadrunners have been seriously hit by the injury bug. Entering this matchup with question marks surrounding the offensive line is a major cause for concern.
UTSA Head Coach Jeff Traylor said on the radio this afternoon that they’ve moved 2 defensive linemen to the offensive line.
Middle Tennessee entered this season with a cumulative power rating that sat near the bottom in the nation. The program lost its opening matchup in embarrassing fashion to James Madison by a score of 44-7.
But the Blue Raiders have bounced back in a big way with three victories in a row. Two of those wins came as double-digit underdogs, as they upset Colorado State (+13.5) 34-19 and Miami (+25.5) 45-31.
Those victories can be attributed to the offense catching fire through the passing game.
Cunningham threw for only 110 yards on his 32 pass attempts (3.4 YPA) in that Week 1 loss. But over the three-game winning streak, the redshirt senior has thrown for an average of 297 yards and 10.1 yards per pass attempt.
The Blue Raiders’ defense has been strong since its Week 1 blunder to James Madison.
The defensive front has stopped the run, allowing just 2.5 yards per carry and ranking 18th in Line Yards. It ranks among the top-5 in the nation after accumulating 35 tackles for loss through the first four games.
But the secondary is the main question mark, and will be attacked all night by Harris. The Blue Raiders are allowing 250 yards and 7.0 yards per passing attempt. Of the 13 touchdowns the defense has allowed, 11 have come through the air.
UTSA vs. Middle Tennessee Betting Pick
I believe this matchup being on a short week is going to hurt Middle Tennessee and play into UTSA’s favor.
The Blue Raiders are coming off the biggest upset in the program’s history and surely celebrated that victory throughout the week.
Now with a short week, it will leave them in a tough position to rebound quickly for this matchup against a tough conference foe.
If you look at the top-five biggest upsets of the season, the following week that team has gone 0-5 against the spread, failing to cover by an average of two touchdowns.
Meanwhile, UTSA is coming off of a glorified bye week against an FCS opponent.
Harris has led the UTSA offense into one of the more reliable groups in the country through the first four games. The Roadrunners put up 35 on Houston, 41 on Army, 52 on Texas Southern and 17 in the first half on Texas. They rank among the top-25 in Passing Success Rate and Havoc created.
The Roadrunners will limit the explosive plays and will overwhelm the Blue Raiders offensively.
The Mountain West has been nothing short of a disaster to begin the 2022 season and two of its top underperformers will meet in Boise on Friday night.
Following a loss to UTEP last week, Boise State quarterback Hank Bachmeier entered the transfer portal. The Broncos also fired offensive coordinator Tim Plough and are looking for a fresh start with a new OC and quarterback.
San Diego State did manage to beat Toledo, but it was an uninspiring performance offensively from the Aztecs. They broke a couple of big runs and scored in the final minutes to beat Toledo at home, 17-14, but it proved to be another lackluster passing performance from transfer quarterback Braxton Burmeister.
Given how much the league is struggling as a whole, the conference remains wide open. Neither team is out of the picture despite terrible nonconference showings.
Boise State has a lot more uncertainty with the changes on offense, but it’s hard to imagine things getting worse than they were last week. This presents a good buy-low spot on the Broncos.
San Diego State Aztecs
The Aztecs have one of the highest rush rates in the entire country, and it’s just about the only way they’ve moved the ball offensively this season.
San Diego State may have beaten Toledo, but Burmeister finished the game 13-of-25 for 65 passing yards. That brings his season-long total to 230 yards on 65 attempts (3.6 per attempt) with two touchdowns and two interceptions.
San Diego State ranks 131st in Passing Success Rate. Yes, dead last. If it gets stuck behind the chains, the Aztecs have almost no chance of converting in obvious passing-down situations without flukes.
They do have a decent rushing attack, but it’s very hard to run the ball on Boise State’s defense. While SDSU ranks 49th in Rushing Success Rate, the Boise defense that ranks top-30 in both Rushing Success Rate Allowed and Defensive Line Yards.
Look back at Boise’s game against Oregon State — outside of one long run that the run-heavy Beavers broke, Boise did an excellent job bottling up OSU’s top two rushers to just 79 yards on 21 combined carries.
Burmeister also registered his worst passing grade of the season against Toledo last start. He has one big-time throw and three turnover-worthy plays to this point in the year.
Kent Horner/Getty Images. Pictured: The San Diego State Aztecs.
Boise State Broncos
Boise brought in former Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach and former Boise State head coach Dirk Koetter to try to improve the Broncos offense. Koetter was helping as an offensive analyst to this point in the season, but the word out of Boise is that he’s now running the entire offense his way.
He’s chosen to simplify the quarterback’s job at the line of scrimmage and make the reads and checks at the line easier. 6-foot-6 quarterback Taylen Green will make his first career start for the Broncos after he came on in relief against Oregon State in Week 1.
Green finished that game 19-of-27 for 155 yards and one interception. The offensive line and receiving room are pretty underwhelming at Boise right now, but Green could potentially use his legs to extend plays and create some offense in a game that doesn’t expect to have much of it.
The Broncos probably won’t find much success running the ball in this game against the SDSU front, even though this is not the same elite Aztec defensive line from years prior.
San Diego State vs. Boise State Betting Pick
It’s nearly impossible to be worse than the Broncos offense was against UTEP last week. The decision to fire Plough, combined with Bachmeier’s transfer, may end up being addition through subtraction.
Koetter has experience running offenses at the NFL and collegiate levels. Even if the talent isn’t up to par, you’d expect an inspired, all-in Boise effort for this Friday night home conference opener.
Boise’s defense shouldn’t have any issues at all stopping SDSU’s rushing attack and completely shutting down any Aztec offense.
The real question is whether or not the Broncos can really get out to a margin. A week ago, I’d have probably said no.
But a new week, a new quarterback and a new coordinator have me willing to buy low on this offense. Given that San Diego State ranks so poorly in tackling grades, per PFF, it wouldn’t take much for the Broncos to break a big play or two and get separation in this game.
A battle of undefeated Pac-12 foes takes place under the lights at the Rose Bowl to close out Friday’s college football slate.
Washington pulled off an upset of then-No. 11 Michigan State and followed that up with a 18-point win over Stanford at home.
This is the first year under new head coach Kalen DeBoer after he came over to the Huskies from Fresno State. This will be his first big road test as Washington’s head coach.
Chip Kelly has UCLA at 4-0 after an easy schedule to start the season, but that doesn’t mean there wasn’t a bit of drama along the way. UCLA needed a game-winning field goal to beat South Alabama at home two weeks ago.
This is the Bruins’ first test of the season, so we will see if this team is a dark horse to win the Pac-12.
Washington Huskies
Offense Led By Penix
Michael Penix Jr. has been on fire since he transferred to Washington. His season at Indiana in 2021 was cut short by injury, and he never realized his full potential after a breakout 2020 season.
Through four games this year, he has a 90.2 PFF passing grade, is averaging 9.2 yards per attempt and has 10 Big Time Throws compared to just one Turnover Worthy Play.
Washington also brought back three of its top four pass catchers from last season, so this is one of the best passing attacks in the Pac-12.
Washington hasn’t been very effective running the ball, though. The Huskies are only 58th in Rushing Success Rate, 60th in EPA/Rush and are only averaging 4.0 yards per carry.
The offensive line has been getting a good push up front, ranking 44th in Offensive Line Yards and 19th in terms of a run blocking grade, per PFF. The Huskies just don’t have much talent in the running back room.
Turnover Regression Coming For Defense
Washington’s defense has some major problems right now that Penix and some timely turnovers have masked.
The Huskies are 78th in EPA/Play Allowed, 121st in Explosiveness Allowed and 70th in Finishing Drives Allowed.
Stanford averaged 6.0 yards a play against them last Saturday, but turned the ball over three times. In fact, Washington has already forced six turnovers in its three games against FBS opponents, so some turnover regression is coming.
One of the main reasons why Washington is struggling defensively is because it only returned five starters and lost two First Team All-Pac 12 cornerbacks from 2021.
Washington has allowed 8.3 yards per attempt (104th in FBS), is 81st in EPA/Pass and is 118th in Passing Explosiveness Allowed. UCLA is a top-10 team in terms of Passing Success Rate.
Thompson-Robinson has been pretty good throwing the ball through four games. UCLA is 10th in Passing Success Rate, 16th in EPA/Pass and Thompson-Robinson is averaging 8.2 yards per attempt.
It helps when he has an offensive line that has done a fantastic job at protecting him, ranking 11th in terms of a pass blocking grade, per PFF, and eighth in Havoc Allowed.
Can Defense Slow Down Penix?
UCLA has played an easy schedule to this point in the season, but is only allowing 4.0 yards per play (ninth in FBS), and ranks 13th in EPA/Play Allowed and ninth in Success Rate Allowed.
This is also a defense that brought back just two starters from last year, but Kelly went into the transfer portal and grabbed a bunch of impact transfers to help fill the void, which seems to have worked out in his favor.
The biggest question mark for UCLA as it pertains to this game is can its secondary — that hasn’t played a decent quarterback — slow down Penix?
The Bruins are 28th in EPA/Pass Allowed and have a top-35 coverage grade, per PFF.
Washington vs. UCLA Betting Pick
Washington has been playing in the comfort of its own stadium for the first four games of the season.
Penix has looked amazing, but going to the Rose Bowl to face a good defense and an electric rushing attack is not what the doctor ordered for DeBoer.
I have UCLA projected as a -0.8 favorite at home, so I think there is a little value on the Bruins at +2.5 or better.
There is no better way to gear up for the Saturday slate than a Friday night Mountain West matchup between UNLV and New Mexico.
This matchup has been nothing short of entertaining, with the road team winning the last five matchups both outright and against the spread.
Four of those five road wins were outright upsets.
UNLV comes into this matchup a perfect 4-0 ATS this season, while New Mexico is looking to bounce back from a 38-0 loss to LSU.
With a win on Friday night, New Mexico and third-year head coach Danny Gonzales can already cash their season win total over (2.5).
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New Mexico Lobos
Coming into the 2022 season, the focus for New Mexico was an improvement on offense.
Offensively, New Mexico can’t be much worse than its 2021 season, as it failed to score more than 17 points in 10 of its 12 games.
This year, there hasn’t been a drastic improvement on the offensive side of the ball. Through four weeks, the Lobos have posted an overall Offensive Success Rate of just 33%, with 3.4 points per scoring opportunity.
Quarterback Miles Kendrick, who transferred from Kansas in the offseason, has continued the average quarterback play for the Lobos.
Kendrick has thrown for just 430 yards on a 57% completion percentage through four games.
Although New Mexico has its problems on the offensive side, the team’s play style and pace have been enough to keep it in every game this season, including covering the spread until late in the third quarter against a much more talented LSU team.
New Mexico ranks dead last in the country in plays per minute and plays per second. The Lobos average only 1.81 plays per minute for an average of 225 a contest.
By limiting offensive possessions, New Mexico has been able to post a positive 2-1-1 record ATS this season despite its underwhelming offense.
In addition to this slow play style, defensive coordinator Rocky Long has built a defensive unit that prides itself on forcing opponents into slow and methodical scoring drives.
So far in 2022, New Mexico has been able to limit teams’ success through the air. The Lobos’ defensive backs have a 10% Havoc rate — to go along with a 20% Passing Downs Success Rate — that helps to limit the big-play ability of their opponents.
In addition, New Mexico has a Defensive Success Rate of 39% against the pass, which is good for top-40 nationally.
Forcing UNLV into a run-first attack will limit the Rebels’ overall offensive possessions.
Against UTEP in Week 3, the Lobos were able to force an astounding seven turnovers. Although this volume of turnovers is impossible to repeat, it speaks volumes about the way Long wants this defensive unit to play.
Another factor that will limit UNLV’s possessions on Friday night includes with where it starts on offense.
Through four games, New Mexico has been able to start opposing offenses on their own 27.1-yard line, on average.
This ability to pin teams deep is yet another reason New Mexico has been able to limit offensive possessions for its opponents.
On Friday night, the Lobos will look to stay within the number, as they have done all season long given their slow and methodical play style on both sides of the ball.
After a disappointing 2-10 season in 2021, UNLV is off to an impressive 3-1 start under third-year head coach Marcus Arroyo.
Much of UNLV’s success has come on the ground via junior running back Aidan Robbins, who has posted an impressive 5.3 yards per catch and seven touchdowns.
Another bright spot for the Rebels offensively has been quarterback Doug Brumfield, who has posted a season-long rating of 162.5 to go with a completion percentage of 69.8%.
Additionally, Brumfield has been relatively mistake-free, posting an 8:1 TD:INT ratio.
UNLV has rushed the ball a total of 157 times, as opposed to only 126 total passing attempts. The Rebels rank third in the nation in EPA per Rush, which explains their tendency to favor the ground game.
This dependency on the rush will again show itself Friday night against a New Mexico team that has more success when defending the pass. UNLV ranks second in the country in total Line Yards while New Mexico ranks 116thin Defensive Line Yards.
I expect UNLV to keep the ball on the ground early and often on Friday night given New Mexico’s strength against the pass. This dependence on the ground game will further limit the possessions for each team.
Defensively, UNLV has been far from perfect. This is an experienced group with nine of its top 11 tacklers back, but the Rebels’ opponents have been able to find success against this unit.
UNLV has allowed its opponents to produce an overall Explosiveness of 1.39, which balloons up to 2.04 on passing downs.
On top of that, the Rebels have allowed 3.3 Line Yards per rush due to their 15% Stuff Rate against the run.
In a game in which possessions will be so valuable, allowing this type of explosiveness will hinder UNLV’s ability to cover the spread.
New Mexico vs. UNLV Betting Pick
Overall, I believe that this number is simply too inflated given the way that both teams want to play on Friday night.
New Mexico will look to dominate the time of possession to keep the UNLV offense off the field.
Defensively, the Lobos will also work to force UNLV into long methodical scoring drives that rely heavily on the rushing attack.
At the time of writing, UNLV is a 14.5-point favorite. Although UNLV has a clear advantage offensively, I believe New Mexico will be able to do enough on both sides of the ball to turn this game into a slow-paced slugfest and ultimately stay within the number.
The 3-0 Miami Dolphins (!) took on the 1-2 Cincinnati Bengals (!!) in an important AFC matchup on Thursday Night Football. And rather than bet into hyper-efficient pregame lines, we looked to take advantage of live betting.
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious live betting chances.
Take a long look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
These teams’ styles of play could potentially create massive opportunities in the live markets. So with that in mind, here are the NFL Live Betting angles and scenarios we were watching for in Bengals-Dolphins, plus the live bets we made.
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The Live Bets We Made in Dolphins vs. Bengals in Week 4 on Thursday Night Football
1) Player Props — LIVE BET MADE
Pregame, our props tool was showing value on Mike Gesicki receiving yardage unders. Gesicki is far less involved in the Dolphins passing game this season. I wasn’t as concerned with game script here as we normally would be when it comes to player props; instead, we were looking to get in live if he had an early catch that picked up a decent chunk of yards.
On cue, Gesicki’s receiving yardage line jumped to 36.5 following his 21-yard catch in the first quarter and was still there well into the second, when we finally made a live bet on under 36.5 receiving yards at FanDuel, where the number was most consistently available at that point.
Gesicki has just one game with multiple catches on the season, and a long catch of 14 yards heading into this game. Additionally, the loss of Tua Tagovailoa hurts the Dolphins passing attack in general. (And we would be remiss if we did not say how much we are hoping Tua is OK after such a terrifying injury.)
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2) Overs in A Close Game — LIVE BET MADE
Both teams have the offensive firepower to put up points in a hurry. It’s more likely that both teams utilize it in a game that neither team firmly controls, in an effort to get out in front.
In fact, the Bengals have played at the second-fastest pace when the score is within six points in 2022, and it was their fastest split (relatively) last season as well.
The perfect scenario was a bit of sputtering from both offenses in the early going, causing the pregame total to drop from 48. (I could have seen a case for taking a higher number, though, especially if the game was back and forth.)
Sticking with our pregame analysis, let’s take the over in a tight game at the half, with the best line being over 47.5 at BetMGM. While the loss of Tua hurts, Teddy Bridgewater appeared more than capable of running the Dolphins offense in the second half. Additionally, the trailing Dolphins get the ball to start the third quarter, so we could see a few drives with the offensive team playing from behind to start the half.
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And of course, we’re not alone in live betting the NFL’s biggest primetime games! Every Monday and Thursday night at halftime, join my predictive analytics colleague, Nick Giffen, for “Bet What Happens Live With Dr. Nick!”, where he’ll share how he’s live betting Monday and Thursday Night Football based on his models.
For this game, Dr. Nick’s live halftime bets were Joe Burrow under 262.5 total passing yards and Joe Mixon over 67.5 total rushing yards.
The Other NFL Live Betting Scenario We Were Watching For in Week 4 on Thursday Night Football
Second Half Unders With Either Team in Control
While both teams feature explosive offenses (at least, before the Tagovailoa injury), neither was likely to play with much urgency in this one.
The Bengals ranked 30th in pace of play in 2021 (both overall and situation neutral), with Miami checking in at 29th in situation neutral this season. Miami has a new coaching staff for 2022, though, so looking only to this season’s numbers makes more sense in their case.
The Bengals have sped things up so far this year, sure — but they’ve also trailed by at least a touchdown at one of the highest rates in the league. Therefore, looking at 2021 stats for the Bengals is more telling, particularly since they retained their coaches and most offensive personnel from their AFC championship season. And as noted above, Cincinnati tends to play slow.
Using that logic, this game should play nearly two seconds slower in the second half than the first. It should also play slower if either team has a commanding lead. Both teams will likely try to keep their opponents powerful offense off the field if and when they get control.
If we saw a high-scoring first half that results in either team with a commanding lead, I’d have been looking to take some unders, ideally on a total in the 50s.
The 3-0 Dolphins travel to Cincinnati to face the 1-2 Bengals in what should be an exciting Thursday Night Football game. Both teams find themselves on opposite trajectories. While the Dolphins have been outperforming their expectations in two emotional victories, the Bengals are below .500 and have lost to Cooper Rush and Mitch Trubisky.
A significant factor that weighs into a Miami Dolphins let-down spot is their underlying health approaching this matchup. In last Sunday’s game vs. the Bills, their defense was on the field for 90 plays. Buffalo’s 34:29 time of possession ranked first as opposed to Miami’s 32nd-ranked 19:20 time of possession.
According to Team Rankings, this was the biggest and most extreme difference in time of possession among all teams in Week 2. Additionally, QB Tua Tagovailoa, LT Terron Armstead, and WR Jaylen Waddle showed up on the injury report and may not be 100% tonight.
I am pairing a Bengals win with a lowered version of Burrow’s passing yards because of the Bengals’ inability to establish the run game. The Bengals trail the Bills and Chargers as Football Outsiders’ 29th worst rush offense DVOA through Week 3. Joe Mixon is only averaging a measly 2.8 yards per carry, and his offensive line is not helping him out.
This has resulted in relying more on the passing game and emphasizing the Bengals’ second-highest Situation-Neutral Pass Rate (67%) among all teams.
The Dolphins are still without stud CB Byron Jones, and their secondary has suffered by seeing a Pass DVOA of 34.2%, ranking 29th among all teams. Past quarterbacks Lamar Jackson (318) and Josh Allen (400) have easily exceeded the 225+ Passing Yards line.
Despite the record deficiency between both teams, oddsmakers are still putting the Dolphins as underdogs, which is a very telling sign to me. Ultimately, I see Burrow and the Bengals playing with more sense of urgency at home than the Dolphins. Burrow reached 225+ passing yards in seven of 11 wins since 2021, making this highly correlated and my favorite prop to target in tonight’s game.
I would also play this at 230+ passing yards, which is available on other books.
Pick: Joe Burrow Over 225+ Passing Yards and Bengals to Win (-111)
Dolphins vs. Bengals on Thursday Night Football may not have looked like the most enticing game when scanning the NFL schedule before the season, but look what we have here!
The 3-0 Dolphins, with wins against the Patriots, Ravens and Bills no less, take on the 1-2 Bengals, who may have righted the ship with a 27-12 victory over the Jets in Week 3.
It may be surprising to see Miami as a 4-point underdog against Cincinnati on Thursday night, but what’s even more shocking is how the wiseguys are betting this matchup.
So with that amazing tease now fresh in your mind, let me answer how exactly the pros are approaching Dolphins vs. Bengals tonight.
Dolphins vs. Bengals Pick
While uncertainty regarding Tua Tagovailoa’s status is a factor as well, the sharp side of Dolphins vs. Bengals appears to be Cincinnati as of the time of writing.
The Bengals opened at -2.5 over the Dolphins, and three separate waves of market-moving action have hit the home favorites, driving this spread through the key number of three and up to a consensus of -3.5.
Additionally, Cincy has landed 49% of the spread tickets wagered on this game, but those bets represent 81% of the loot, a dead giveaway that big wagers are behind the Thursday Night Football odds movement to this point.
And finally, four of the Action Network’s top NFL bettors are laying the points with Cincinnati as well, aligning our experts with the wiseguys for Dolphins vs. Bengals on Thursday Night Football.
Thursday’s South Carolina State vs. South Carolina college football Week 5 matchup will draw very little interest from recreational bettors for a handful of reasons.
First, the NFL is in action as it typically is on Thursday night, and the game is a good one with the undefeated Miami Dolphins visiting last year’s AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals.
When it comes to college football specifically, bettors also get Utah State vs. No. 19 BYU on Thursday night, which is clearly a much more high-profile matchup than South Carolina State vs. South Carolina.
And finally, even bettors who are considering dabbling on South Carolina State vs. South Carolina may be turned off by the latest college football odds.
As one would expect, the Gamecocks are huge favorites — -39 to be exact — over the Bulldogs; a spread so large that it turns away most potential bettors as well.
However, pros aren’t “most” bettors, and yes, they’re taken a market-moving position on South Carolina State vs. South Carolina.
South Carolina State vs. South Carolina Pick
Wiseguys are passing on the spread and opting for the South Carolina State vs. South Carolina over/under instead.
DraftKings opened Thursday night’s total at 55.5 and two separate waves of smart over money have driven this number up to 57 as of the time of writing.
While DraftKings is at 57, BetMGM and FanDuel are a half-point lower at 56.5, providing the best line for those who want to tail the pros in this small college football matchup.
The league’s most exciting team faces the reigning AFC champions to begin Week 4.
The 3-0 Dolphins lead the AFC East after a pair of thrilling wins over the Ravens and Bills, while the Bengals feasted last week against the Jets en route to their first win.
Mixon is averaging just 2.8 yards per carry this season, and he’s facing a Dolphins defense that ranks seventh against the run, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA.
I can see the Bengals using Mixon tonight in the short passing game as an extension of the running game.
Mixon has three or more catches in all three games this season, despite catching just 65% of his targets. I’d expect that to be closer to 80% moving forward.
I’m projecting Mixon for closer to 26.5 receiving yards tonight.
Gesicki’s role has changed significantly in head coach Mike McDaniel’s offense. He ran a route on 80% of Tua Tagovailoa’s dropbacks last season, but that’s down to 45% so far in 2022. Gesicki stayed as a blocker 11 times last season, but he’s done so seven times already in three games.
This offense flows through Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in the passing game. While Gesicki has caught all six of his targets this season, we can expect that 100% rate to be closer to 71% given his 6.5 Average Depth of Target.
I’m projecting Gesicki for closer to 14.5 tonight.
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What Does First-Bet Insurance Mean?
Check out our guide on how different sportsbooks promos work before signing up anywhere. It’s a helpful breakdown of what the different lingo means.
At Caesars Sportsbook, here’s exactly how first-bet insurance works using an example from Dolphins-Bengals.
If your first bet wins, you keep the stake and profits
If it loses, you’ll get back whatever amount you lost from that first bet in free bets
Tyreek Hill is +140 at Caesars to score a touchdown against Cincinnati. Let’s say you deposit and bet $100 on him.
If Hill scores, you’ve now got $240 in your account on a $100 deposit.
If Hill doesn’t score, you get $100 back in free bets.
OK, so you’re probably wondering how free bets work. Let’s get into it.
How can you use free bets?
For starters, we recommend you always use free bets plus-money wagers. Over time, you’ll net more because you’re getting more expected value.
Say Hill doesn’t score and you have that $100 in free bets. Then for Saturday’s Alabama vs. Arkansas game, you’re feeling especially frisky and bet Razorbacks moneyline — +600 at Caesars as of Thursday morning — using the $100 in free bets.
If Arkansas wins, you’ll have $600 total in your account. You don’t keep the $100 free bet.
If Arkansas loses, you end up with nothing after depositing $100.
How Can I Sign Up at Caesars?
Click here and select your state, and input the Caesars promo code ACTION4FULL.
Provide your basic personal information to create an account, including your name, date of birth, address & email address.
Make a deposit using your bank account, PayPal or credit/debit cards.
Since you should always wager your free bets on plus-money wagers, here are some ways to approach the MLB slate this week or plan for Thursday Night Football:
Stuckey: I think we need to slow down the love for the Dolphins, who I’ve seen some label as the best team in the NFL after their most recent win over the Bills to improve to 3-0 on the season, joining the Eagles as the only remaining unblemished teams.
Miami has certainly improved, but that’s crazy talk.
This team could easily and arguably should be 1-2. The Dolphins had an improbable comeback in Week 2 against the Ravens in a game where Baltimore had a 99% postgame win expectancy.
Then, last week against the Bills, they were outgained 497-212 even with Buffalo losing a plethora of starters on both sides of the ball with others cramping up throughout. If you include time of possession and snap count, we haven’t seen that improbable of a win in 25 years. Even against the Patriots in Week 1, Miami only got to 20 points even with a defensive TD in a pretty even game statistically.
Now, the Dolphins must travel on a short week to face the defending AFC champions, who seemingly finally figured some things out in a blow out win last week. This is a terrible spot for the beat up Fins, who may even be without Tua Tagovailoa and have a defense that should be gassed after facing 90 plays against the Bills offense a few days prior.
Miami’s defense, which I think came into the year overrated after facing many backups last year, also likes to blitz. That’s not a recipe for success against Joe Burrow.
Think this is a good buy-low/sell-high spot on Cincy up to -4.
Simon Hunter: We’ve seen this number jump all over. It opened at Bengals -1.5, jumped up to -4 and appears to have settled on Thursday morning at -3.5.
How can Miami bounce back in four days from such an emotionally draining divisional win over Buffalo? Not only is Tua Tagovailoa battling a back injury, but LT Terron Armstead and WR Jaylen Waddle are also injured. None of them practice this week until a walkthrough.
The Bengals, on the other hand, had a comfortable 27-12 win over the Jets. There are no injuries on the offense, with Joe Mixon able to practice this week.
We have had a couple of trends that favor the Bengals. Since 2015, teams coming off an outright win as an underdog that are also underdogs on Thursday Night Football are 0-12 straight-up (SU) and 1-11 against the spread (ATS). When they’re playing on the road, they’re 0-8 SU and ATS.
This is simply a bad spot for the Dolphins. I’ll take the Bengals up to 4.5.
Sam Farley: Thursday Night Football serves us up a treat with the Dolphins traveling into the Paul Brown Stadium looking to extend their 3-0 record.
The Dolphins haven’t had an issue putting up points this season, with 83 points scored through three games thanks to one of the best pass-catching duos in the NFL: Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The Bengals also have an incredible array of talent, so there’s a feeling that this game could explode.
However, the line has dropped from 47.5 since opening but is back up to 48.5 at BetMGM as of 11:15 a.m. ET on Thursday.
With this being a short week and with Tagovailoa being banged up, this seems like a game in which the under really leaps out. The under has hit in the Bengals past eight games and that could extend to nine come Thursday night.
John LanFranca: This is a simple situational play against the Dolphins.
Miami is coming off an incredible effort in a close victory against a divisional rival. The Dolphins defense was on the field for 90 plays and might have truly left it all on the field. Now, in a quick turnaround, they’re asked to travel and do it once more.
The Bengals offense has improved each week according to DVOA, and it finally posted its first positive outing of the season in Week 3. Burrow was only sacked twice in what was an efficient performance on the road.
The Dolphins are banged up entering this game, as well, although I expect most of their key offensive pieces to play. The Bengals can feed off of the home crowd and jump on a tired Miami squad early in this contest.
Some books have moved the first half line to -3 already, so avoiding that key number is vital here.
Charlie DiSturco: While the Bengals have struggled to establish the run and protect Joe Burrow this season, it opens the door for Joe Mixon’s versatility as a pass-catching back to shine on Thursday night.
Through the opening three weeks, Mixon has caught 13 passes for 103 yards, and has eclipsed this current receiving yards prop (20.5) twice. He now gets a favorable matchup against a Dolphins defense that just surrendered 78 receiving yards to Devin Singletary.
I expect a similar defensive setup from Miami on Thursday, where they leave safeties over the top to limit Ja’Marr Chase — like they did with Stefon Diggs — and force Burrow into his second reads and, ultimately, checkdowns.
The Bengals are bottom 10 in pass blocking, according to Pro Football Focus, through three weeks, and right tackle La’El Collins is questionable. That could lead to even more looks for Mixon, who has been targeted 20 times in three games.
Until the Bengals shore up their offensive line, I will look to back Mixon in the coming weeks. He is always a threat to hit this over prop in just one catch due to his explosiveness as well, but I expect at least 3-4 receptions from the 26-year-old.
At 20.5, this number is too low for Mixon. According to our Action Labs data, Mixon is projected for 24.5 receiving yards, a 4.9% edge to the current number.
Cody Goggin: Tua Tagovailoa is unquestionably playing the best football of his NFL career right now. The Dolphins are 3-0 and have impressed with their passing attack so far this season. Despite being outplayed by the Bills this past weekend, the Dolphins are still a good team and deserve credit for coming out of that game with a win.
A large part of their success this season is not based on the addition of Tyreek Hill or the efficiency of their passing game, but also the volume at which the Dolphins have thrown the ball this season. Miami is passing at a higher rate than would be expected in every situation.
Overall, the Dolphins rank fourth in the NFL in pass frequency over expected on early downs this season.
Tagovailoa had 33 pass attempts against the Patriots in a game that Miami played from ahead most of the time, and he threw 50 times against the Ravens when playing from behind. Tagovailoa only had 18 passing attempts against the Bills, but this was due to Buffalo controlling the ball for most of the game, running 90 offensive plays to Miami’s 39.
Mike McDaniel wants to throw to Hill and Jaylen Waddle often, with these short passes can be an extension of the Dolphins’ run game. I think that Tagovailoa will be throwing the ball often tonight, and for that reason I like him to go over his total of 23.5 passes completed.
All eyes will be on BYU Thursday night, as one of the best independent teams in the country looks to make quick work of Utah State in a standalone game.
The Cougars are 3-1 on the season, with that one loss coming against a 13th-ranked Oregon team on the road. That loss took away much of the hype after the Cougars took down Baylor in Week 2.
Last week, BYU posted a convincing win over Wyoming, but it didn’t come without a cost, as quite a few key players left the game with injury.
Meanwhile, the Aggies are in a bit of a tailspin after losing their third game in a row.
Now, nobody expected Utah State to go into Alabama and keep it close, but this Aggies team won the Mountain West last year — in convincing fashion. This year, they’ve found themselves losing 35-7 to Weber State of the FCS. They did lose some key players, but they rank 89th in return production.
What has happened to this Aggies squad? Is there any chance at all that they can get back on track? More importantly, can they do it on a short week against one of the most challenging independent programs in the country?
This will be the 91st meeting between the two programs in a series that dates back to 1922. BYU holds a 50-37-3 lead all-time and is currently on a two-game win streak. The teams play for the Old Wagon Wheel Trophy, created in 1948 by the Blue Key Fraternities at each school.
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BYU Cougars
BYU comes into this game ranked 19th in the AP Poll after getting back on track against Wyoming last week. The Cougars may not have covered the 21-point spread, but quarterback Jaren Hall did earn the Manning Award Star of the Week, completing 81.3% of his passes for 337 yards and four touchdowns.
There were a lot of personnel changes against Wyoming on both sides of the ball and special teams.
The top five tacklers against Wyoming were all backups before the game, and their starting running back was fifth in rushing before the outing.
Keanu Hill led the team in receiving yards (160) vs. Wyoming despite having just 123 yards total in the first three games.
Backup kicker Justen Smith also came in to attempt the Cougars’ only field goal attempt, which he made. Starting kicker Jake Oldroyd had missed his last three field goals, but still handled PATs against the Cowboys.
Unfortunately, a slew of injuries leaves many questions about who we will see for the Cougars this week.
Wide receiver Puka Nacua, offensive lineman Kingsley Suamataia, linebacker Payton Wilgar, defensive tackle Josh Larsen and safety Malik Moore all left the game with injuries.
With so many team changes and injuries, it’s hard to gauge who we will see on any given play for the Cougars on Thursday night.
Two things are for sure, though: Hall is currently a top-20 QB in the country, and this coaching staff isn’t afraid to make changes on the fly.
The Cougars proved their depth last week, and regardless of who’s out there this week, I think they are far and away a better team than Utah State.
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Utah State Aggies
Last year’s Mountain West champs currently sit at 1-3 on the season and 0-1 in the conference after losing 34-24 to UNLV last week.
What has gone wrong?
Against the Rebels, one of the biggest problems was penalties. The Aggies finished the game with 11 penalties totaling 93 yards. Only five teams in the county are worse than the Aggies in regards to penalty yards per game. They currently rank 126th, averaging 87.7 penalty yards per game.
Utah State has been moving the ball well — averaging 366.3 yards per game — but it has been unable to get it done when it matters most.
The Aggies rank 113th nationally in third-down conversion percentage at just 28.89%. Against UNLV, they converted just 4-of-13 third downs. On fourth downs, they converted just two of five attempts last week and are converting just 40% on the season.
Finally, the Aggies are 116th in the country with a turnover margin of -1.3. Quarterback Logan Bonner has thrown eight interceptions on the season, while the team has three fumbles.
UNLV shut down the Aggies’ running game, limiting them to just 96 yards on 32 rushes. That’s something that a team who rushes on more than 53.9% of plays can’t have two weeks in a row.
The Aggies’ passing game can be productive if Bonner can limit turnovers. The offensive line has surrendered just three sacks on the season and gave up none against Alabama or UNLV.
Utah State is not a good team, but I think it can be. A lot of its most significant issues are mistakes that I believe can be fixed — penalties, turnovers, third-down conversions.
I’m just not sure the Aggies can fix it all this week, though.
However, despite our Action Network projections making BYU a 26-point favorite, I’m in no rush to back the Cougars. BYU will be moving a lot of players around trying to figure out what works best before it takes on Notre Dame in Las Vegas next week for the Shamrock Series.
These teams have struggled with Finishing Drives, ranking 73rd and 123rd, respectively. Meanwhile, both teams also average less than 74 plays per game.
If we can avoid Utah State turnovers deep in its own territory, I think this matchup stays under the total of 61.5.
Thursday Night Football offers your last chance to claim BetMGM bonus code ACTION50 that gets new users up to $1,050 in total value — a $1,000 risk-free bet, and a $50 free bet.
This offer will expire after Dolphins-Bengals.
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Just enter your actual information and don’t use a fake address like your Airbnb address or friend’s address if they’re in a legal state and you’ don’t live there. You’re allowed to bet as long as you’re in the state.
How to Use Your BetMGM Free Bets
You’re probably wondering why we suggested so many plus-money wagers in our example above. That’s because the best way to use any free bets is on longshots.
The bigger the line, the more expected value you get over time. Things priced between +300 to +600 in tight markets, meaning the gap between the two sides isn’t too large, are the optimal way to go.
Here are some ways to use your promo bets for Thursday Night Football:
If good teams win and great teams cover, the Detroit Lions are a historically great team.
Since last season, the Lions are 14-6 against the spread (ATS), the second-best team in the NFL behind the Dallas Cowboys (15-6).
What’s remarkable about the Lions, of course, is they’ve covered in 70% of their games, but have only won 21% of them (four games).
That delta? Legendary and historic.
The Lions are the first team in the Wild Card Era (since 1990) to cover more than 60% of their games over a 20-game span and win fewer than five games.
Detroit has started 2022 with a 3-0 record against the spread, their best mark in 30 years.
So what does that mean? It means that bookmakers tend to overestimate how bad the Lions are and how good their opponents will be against them.
On Sunday, the Lions will have significantly more pressure on them. That’s because, for the first time in 27 games, the Detroit Lions will be a favorite (by four points) against the Seattle Seahawks.
The last time they were a favorite? Nov. 22, 2020 against the Carolina Panthers. They lost 20-0.
But the stink of the Lions moneyline has kept many from seeing how great they are at covering. The Green Bay Packers have received plenty of credit over the years for winning straight up and covering at Lambeau.
Since 2021, the Packers are 9-1 straight up at home and 8-2 against the spread, both the best in the league.
But, over the same period, the Packers are tied with another team, one that has covered the spread at home eight out of its last 10 times.
The Detroit Lions.
It’s always worth restating. Good teams win. Great teams cover.
The Bundesliga returns to action from the international break on Friday as the heavy title favorites Bayern Munich host Bayer Leverkusen.
Both teams have vastly underperformed preseason expectations thus far with Bayern settling for three consecutive draws and then a defeat in the league while Leverkusen won just one of their first seven matches in the league.
Each time it has seemed that Leverkusen are starting to turn a corner in their results — a 3-0 win against Mainz and 2-0 win against Atletico Madrid in the Champions League — Die Werkself has followed that up with a lackluster showing the following match.
Bayern have settled for draws in various weird ways — the underlying numbers remain excellent but they’ve conceded late goals and the pressure is mounting on manager Julian Nagelsmann to produce better results to save his job.
The defending champions won the first meeting between the two clubs last season, 5-1, but they was outplayed and settled for a 1-1 draw in the second meeting at home in March.
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Bayern Munich Undergoing Attacking Transition
If you just look at Bayern’s underlying expected goals (xG) and actual goals for and against numbers, you wouldn’t think anything was wrong with how they are playing. Bayern has a +1.62 xG difference per 90 minutes this season — and they’ve won the xG battle by at least 0.5 in every Bundesliga match this season.
The defense has certainly shown some cracks — they had a back pass miscue to concede to Gladbach, conceded a last minute penalty to Stuttgart and have allowed at least one xG in the last four matches in all competitions.
The narrative angle is simple: Bayern is struggling to replace Robert Lewandowski’s production at striker. The reality is that the team is no longer vastly overperforming its xG totals by unsustainable margins. The club’s top players were all due for some regression in the finishing department and the team has run even with its xG thus far this year.
I think there is some merit to the idea that the whole attack was built around one key focal point for all of the crosses and interchanging in and around the penalty area. Now that he’s gone, it’s taken a bit of an adjustment period since the attack is more evenly spread out across the board.
Bayern could explode at any moment, but I think the focus for both clubs in this match will be shoring up the defensive flaws that have cost them games and points in the early part of the season.
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Bayer Leverkusen Regressing to the Mean
One year after being one of the most fortunate teams by finishing variance in all of Europe, Bayer Leverkusen have been one of the more unfortunate teams. Funny how that works.
Leverkusen kept most of their core group of talented players together and thought it would propel them to the start in the league given all of the turnover with the rest of the top clubs. Instead, Leverkusen have one win, two draws and four losses in the first seven games of the league year.
They finished the second half of last season with a +1.1 xG difference per 90 and through seven games, Leverkusen is just +0.23 xGD per 90. That’s not a good enough level to qualify for the top four either, so the poor start hasn’t exactly been all variance either. The performances in attack have dropped off considerably and the finishing has leveled off.
Last season, Leverkusen over-performed their xG for by more goals than everyone in Europe’s top five leagues except Lazio, Napoli, Dortmund and Rennes.
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Bayern are used to dominating both shot total numbers and shot quality in the Bundesliga. Thus far, they’re dominating the shot totals and the field tilt, but the average shot distance has risen considerably.
They could improve on that going forward and probably will, but for now they rank middle of the pack in average shot distance at 17 yards. That’s more than a full yard worse than last season’s number.
When you aren’t generating as many shots close to the goal and are reliant on shooting from distance more to generate clear chances, you’re less likely to run well compared to xG. There’s usually more defenders in the way and more time for the goalkeeper to react.
The Bayern defense is still preventing big chances — average shot distance allowed is second best in the league — but the attack isn’t always the juggernaut it’s been in year’s past. It still can be and is at times, but the consistency is lacking.
Leverkusen’s attack has looked more pedestrian this year, like the one that finished last season seventh in shots and seventh in big scoring chances created. As a result, they’ve regressed and this total is a bit inflated on Friday.
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On Thursday, we travel to Milwaukee to find value in an NRFI between two National League teams: the Milwaukee Brewers and Miami Marlins.
The Brewers will send out Eric Lauer, who has been spectacular to the NRFI this season. Coming into today, Lauer is 21-6 to the NRFI with a 9-2 home NRFI split.
When facing leadoff hitters, Lauer has performed very well. In 69 leadoff hitters faced, he’s allowed only 13 hits, which is good for a .188 average and demonstrates that he is very proficient in getting the most crucial out in an NRFI.
Here is what some of these Marlins hitters have done in the past against Lauer:
Garrett Cooper 0-for-4
Miguel Rojas: 1-for-7
Jacob Stallings: 1-for-10
Miami is by far the worst team when it comes to first-inning runs on the road. The Marlins NRFI on the road at an alarming rate of 87%.
The Marlins will counter with Braxton Garrett. Coming into today, Garrett has been nothing shy of proficient. He is 11-4 to the NRFI with a 6-2 road NRFI split. Garrett has been phenomenal in his last seven days: In six innings pitched, he has allowed only five hits and one run.
Garrett has not faced many of the Brewers hitters thus leaving the edge of unfamiliarity on his side. Despite needing wins to clinch a wild-card spot, the Brewers are riding a hot 9-1 NRFI streak.
With the Marlins by far being the worst team to find runs in the first inning, as well as the Brewers slumping in their last 10 games in the first inning, bet on these two pitchers to throw a scoreless first inning in Milwaukee.
Thursday is generally a smaller slate in Major League Baseball and is often used for off days and travel. The slate is also filled with day games.
However, our Action Labs Projections still found two strikeout props that provide value later today.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Jeffrey Springs has really impressed since being moved into the starting rotation. He’s tossed over 125 innings with an ERA in the mid-2.00s. His expected statistics leave something to be desired, but he’s upped his ground-ball rate so much (34.3% in 2021, 40.7% in 2022) that it negates that worry.
Springs tore his ACL last July, and he lost about two ticks on his fastball because of that. However, he’s countered that by adding a sinker and significantly increasing the chase rate on his secondary stuff.
As a result, Springs’ strikeout numbers have held steady even as he progressed from a middle reliever to a mid-rotation starter. Springs has hit this line in 16 of his 19 games this season where he’s thrown at least 60 pitches.
Cleveland is a scary offense. The Guardians make as much contact as anyone in the league and have struck out at the third-lowest rate over the last month (17.6%).
However, the Guardians have clinched the division and might be mailing it in. Perhaps they rest some starters as they did with Amed Rosario Wednesday. Plus, the Guardians have the eighth-lowest wRC+ against southpaws in September (96).
Springs struck out five over just 92 pitches the last time he faced the Guardians, tossing five innings and allowing three runs.
The projections believe he can eclipse 4.5 Ks again, projecting Springs for:
Braxton Garrett is a great young pitcher. Similar to Springs, he’s a soft-tossing southpaw who is elite at getting opponents to chase. He’s slider-heavy and the pitch has a whiff rate over 40%.
But I don’t think he has the juice to get past Milwaukee today.
Garrett had an unbelievable four-game stretch in July, striking out 37 batters over 22 2/3 innings. But he’s eclipsed six strikeouts in just one of his 13 other starts. He has yet to force strikeouts on a consistent basis yet.
I also believe this is a bad matchup.
While Milwaukee strikeouts out at the third-highest rate against southpaws (25.8%), that number is down slightly in September (24.5%). Plus, the Brewers don’t chase, having posted the third-lowest chase rate in MLB this season (25.9%).
Plus, Milwaukee is top-10 in MLB in Weighted Slider Runs Created. Meaning they can neutralize Braxton’s highest-used pitch.
Half of all active FanDuel users for the 2021 NFL season placed a Same Game Parlay.
Same Game Parlays account for 25% of all NFL wagers made at sportsbooks that use Kambi, a major software provider. That number increases to an eye-popping 36% for island games, meaning Thursday Night Football, Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football.
This is all to say — Same Game Parlays are all the craze lately.
That said, there are still times when betting SGPs are +EV — namely, when attached to a promotion.
One of the most popular marketplaces involves the “Race to 10 Points” marketplace, which is only available at DraftKings and BetMGM. That wager-type also includes “Race to 15,” “Race to 20,” “Race to 25” and so on.
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Same Game Parlay Betting Rules Explainer: What Happens if Neither Team Scores?
While the concept is simple enough, there is one notable caveat.
Let’s say you slap a “Race to 25 Point” ticket into your three-leg Same Game Parlay. What happens if neither team reaches 25 points?
Typically, if you were to bet that market as a straight bet, the wager would be void and your money would be refunded.
However, in a Same Game Parlay, the odds are not in your favor.
If neither team reaches 25 points, you lose your Same Game Parlay at DraftKings and BetMGM.
How to Glean Value Out of Same Game Parlays
As aforementioned, Same Game Parlays are typically losing endeavors.
But DraftKings in particular rewards customers with Same Game Parlay bonuses, many of which involve loss-back bonuses that refund most or all of your original stake.
Those bonuses can run upwards of $500 for VIP users and those with Diamond status at the sportsbook.
Other promotions involve percentage boosts on your profit. 33% or 50% boosts can go a long way — especially over a long time horizon — in ensuring profit.
Typically, we’d recommend only betting Same Game Parlays as part of a promotion in order to safeguard long-term, positive expected value.
FanDuel has decent Same Game Parlay bonuses, but typically for a far lower maximum bet. Most of their best bonuses are pre-made. For instance, Pat McAfee sponsors a weekly Same Game Parlay that has a profit boost baked-in.
Generally, we’d avoid betting Same Game Parlays on any site besides DraftKings or FanDuel because promotions typically aren’t up to scratch.
Dolphins vs. Bengals takes center stage in Cincinnati for Thursday Night Football, and there are two offensive threats for the visitors headlining TD props.
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have combined for five touchdowns thus far on the season, and bettors are backing the duo to find the endzone again.
The wide receivers account for the most wagers taken at BetMGM in the anytime touchdown market for Dolphins vs. Bengals tonight.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
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Dolphins vs. Bengals TD Props
At BetMGM, Hill is listed at -110. His odds range from that price all the way up to +150 at some books.
The shop’s writer, Max Meyer, reported Hill accounts for 19.3% of wagers for first touchdown, and twice as much as any other player in the general, anytime TD market.
For Waddle, that number is +100 at BetMGM; but he also can be found at +150, depending on the sportsbook.
If you believe Waddle to score has value at +150, you can add the bet to your ticket simply using the link below.
FanDuel has the current highest listed odds for each player, but be sure to check out the most updated numbers you can find.
Cincinnati wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase represents the third most-bet player to score in this game, with odds that range anywhere from -175 to +110 depending on the book.
For expert analysis on the touchdown market in tonight’s game, Gilles Gallant gives his thoughts below. You can check out his full analysis here.
Gilles Gallant’s Dolphins vs. Bengals Anytime TD Analysis
The touchdown value on Hill continues to be a head-scratcher. The best number I tracked for him last season was -120. Last week against the Bills, he was +105.
I’m not in love with Tua Tagovailoa as a quarterback, but it’s hard to argue with his success on deep balls this season. On passes 20 or more yards down the field, Tagovailoa ranks second in the NFL in completion percentage, with nine such passes and three touchdowns.
The Hill vs. Eli Apple matchup might be getting too much attention going into this game, but Tagovailoa did say in a press conference this week that he’s going to Hill if he sees 1-on-1 coverage.
I like this number at the upper end of the odds range.
For Waddle, he leads the Dolphins this season in targets, receiving yards and red-zone targets.
He’s in the top 10 in the NFL in targets and has scored TDs both of the long and short variety this season; a case can also be made that he’s simply the best receiver on the Dolphins right now.
Again, I wouldn’t take him at -110, for example, but with a good number, I’ll bite.
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There’s plenty of uncertainty ahead of this Week 4 kickoff between the Dolphins and Bengals. Plenty of key players’ statuses are unknown, headlined by some big names on the Miami offense.
There’s still some uncertainty as to who will actually suit up for the Dolphins.
Tua Tagovailoa is questionable with a back injury. Although many thought Tagovailoa suffered a concussion on Sunday, he cleared that protocol and returned to finish off the Dolphins’ win over Buffalo. He intends to play this game, although whether he does is not certain.
WR Jaylen Waddle and LT Terron Armstead are both questionable but expected to play. It’ll be critical for Miami to have Armstead, who will be tasked with slowing down Bengals pass rushers Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson.
On the Cincinnati defensive side, D.J. Reader has already been ruled out due to a knee injury, which is a massive blow. Reader is Pro Football Focus’ No. 1-ranked interior defensive lineman.
The loss of Reader and Tagovailoa playing at less than 100% on a short week could invite the Dolphins to lean on the run game a bit more than they have so far this season.
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When the Bengals Have the Ball
Burrow has been sacked a league-high 15 times this season, despite only facing a 33.6% pressure rate that ranks 14th among 31 qualified QBs. Some of the blame for that can be placed on Burrow, but a lot of it could be due to a rebuilt Bengals offensive line taking its time to get used to each other
It will be a relief for Burrow to face a Dolphins defense that has generated the fourth-lowest pressure rate this season. On the back end, Miami could also be without cornerback Xavien Howard, who’s questionable due to a groin injury.
The Bengals have really struggled to run the ball this season, ranking 30th in Football Outsiders’ Rush DVOA. Cincinnati is 26th in passing, but I think we can chalk that up to a small sample size. Burrow and the air attack should be a top-five passing offense going forward.
The Dolphins have a pass-funnel defense that ranks 29th against the pass and seventh against the run. That sets up perfectly for a Bengals team that has struggled on the ground this season. Cincinnati ranked ninth in early down pass rate in Weeks 1 and 2, but it threw at the third-highest rate on early downs in Week 3 in a relatively neutral game script.
I’m expecting Miami to try to lean on its run game a bit more because of its injuries. On the other side, Cincinnati should be able to play with a lead for most of the game, which could lead to a more conservative offensive approach.
Unders have been cashing at a high rate this season (67%). The median final score has been 40, compared to a median total of 44.5. The public hasn’t caught up to this early season trend, which is clear since 57% of the action has been on the over.
For football totals, 47 is a key number. We got over that hump on Thursday morning, getting as high as 48.5 on BetMGM. It’s 48 elsewhere, except at FanDuel, where they’re holding steady at 47.5 as of 10:15 a.m. ET.
There are other key players whose statuses for this game are uncertain, so my stance may change based on who’s active. Be sure to follow me in the Action App to see if/when I pull the trigger on the under.
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Sportsbooks may owe Aaron Judge a thank you letter.
The hype surrounding his record-tying 61st home run filled their pockets over the past week as everyone scrambled to bet on history. And that should only continue now that he’s one shy of breaking the American League record.
“Judge’s home run market has been one of our most popular MLB markets of all time,” said Christian Cipollini, a Sports Trader at BetMGM who helps set lines and odds. “We expect to continue to see this action until he hits [number] 62 and possibly after that, if he can extend the AL home run record.”
Since hitting his 60th last week virtually every bet on “Aaron Judge Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs” has poured in on the over.
Judge took his time — eight games — before finally tying Roger Maris’ single-season American League record Wednesday night against the Blue Jays. During that span Judge to homer was the most bet MLB player prop every night at DraftKings. That’s only happened five other times this year.
The seven-game homerless streak he snapped was tied for his second-longest of the season.
“We’ve been putting up props daily, all focused on when Aaron Judge would hit number 61. He connected last night and so did the bettors,” said Johnny Avello, DraftKings Director of Race & Sports Operations. “The action has been tremendous. We’ll continue this process as there is a record that could be broken and a Triple Crown to possibly win.”
Sportsbooks don’t disclose exactly how much money they take on any given day — but after padding their coffers with losing bets all week, its safe to assume they could afford paying out Judge’s homer prop Wednesday night.
Tougher Road to 62
With playoff baseball right on the doorstep, Judge has seven regular season games left to hit his 62nd and break the record.
That could be even tougher to do now that the Yankees have clinched a playoff, likely equaling rest for some of their stars.
Opposing pitchers have already made cashing his home run prop tough enough.
In Judge’s 32 at-bats before homering on Wednesday, he walked 12 times.
It’s not fun to be on the opposite end of a home run highlight — let alone a historic one– and it’d be surprising if Judge didn’t see more of the same on the road for 62.
His next chance to break the record is Friday, when the Yankees play the Orioles at home. Check back for his home run odds later once they post.
UTSA vs. Middle Tennessee makes for an interesting Friday-night betting clash.
The Roadrunners were highly valued before the season but sit just 2-2 on the year. The Blue Raiders, meanwhile, cashed a big outright win over Miami in Week 4 and are quietly 3-1 both straight up and against the spread.
Our advanced tools see a betting edge in Friday’s UTSA vs. Middle Tennessee game, with projections spotting a monster discrepancy between the market price and what the spread should be.
Is this a smash spot on UTSA at a cheap price? Or is there value on Middle Tennessee State, with bettors catching key numbers of both +3 and +4?
UTSA vs. Middle Tennessee best bets feature a premium pick on the spread, which is also attracting big money.
UTSA vs. Middle Tennessee Best Bets
Action Network’s PRO Report suggests bettors lay the points with the UTSA Roadrunners Friday night.
The betting line at the time of writing is -4 or -4.5, depending on where you shop.
Our PRO Projections, however, disagree wholeheartedly, making UTSA more like -9.5.
That difference between the listed number of -4.5 and our projection of -9.5 is good for a 9% betting edge and A-rated play on the favored Roadrunners.
To top it off, we’ve tracked some big money rolling in on UTSA (84% of the handle), which is catching Middle Tennessee in a potential trap spot after pulling off a huge win over Miami.
Those interested in UTSA can still grab -4s available around the marketplace.
NFL fans have been spoiled thus far with some very solid Thursday night matchups.
The NFL kicked things off with the Bills vs. Rams and Chargers vs. Chiefs — two exciting matchups between four teams expected to contend for playoff spots and beyond. Even last week’s Steelers vs. Browns matchup was spicier than I expected a game between Mitch Trubisky and Jacoby Brissett to be.
This week, we get the undefeated Dolphins on the road against the reigning AFC Champion-Bengals. Miami is fresh off of a huge, upset win over the Bills, while the Bengals try to right the ship after starting the season 0-2.
Many lineup decisions — like starting Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Mixon, Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle — are easy. Below are some fringe players at each position you may be on the fence about starting in the Dolphins vs. Bengals Thursday Night Football game based on matchups, injuries and trends.
Tagovailoa was a sit for me last week going up against the Bills — even without safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. The Dolphins shockingly won the game, though Tagovailoa’s stat line was unimpressive. He completed 13 of 18 attempts for 186 yards, one touchdown and zero interceptions — good enough for 11 fantasy points and a QB25 finish.
Tagovailoa has boom-or-bust potential: He had finished as the QB2 in Week 2 after tossing a whopping six touchdowns against the Ravens. This week, he will face the Bengals, whose defense has been tough against the quarterbacks and have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to the position this year, though they have yet to face an elite signal-caller.. Cincinnati’s defense has battled Mitch Trubisky, Cooper Rush and Joe Flacco, so Tagovailoa may be their first legitimate adversary.
Verdict: Start Tagovailoa as a low-end QB1 assuming he plays. He was banged up in Week 3 and had to be relieved briefly by backup Teddy Bridgewater. Tagovailoa was limited in practice on Tuesday with back and ankle injuries. If Bridgewater starts, he would be a low-end QB2.
RB Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert
I am grouping these two together because they are a true running back committee. Mostert had a strong Week 2 against the Ravens, tallying 11 carries for 51 yards and three catches for 28 yards. He was stymied against the Bills in Week 3 with eight carries for 11 yards. Edmonds was barely utilized in Week 2, logging six touches for 41 all-purpose yards. He bounced back big time in Week 3, logging seven touches for 27 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
In terms of snap counts, the pair is fairly even on the year. Edmonds edges out Mostert slightly with 93 vs. 88 snaps this season, though Mostert has seen more snaps in each of the last two weeks.
Verdict: Sit both if you can. This committee is a headache at best and there’s a good chance one of them has a good day while the other is a dud — I just have no idea which. If I had to start one, I would probably feel slightly more confident starting Edmonds, who strikes me as the more talented back and may be the “hot hand” after last week’s two-touchdown performance. Both are outside of the RB3 tier for me this week.
TE Mike Gesicki
If you look up “volatile tight end” in the dictionary, you will find a photo of Mike Gesicki. In Week 1, Gesicki saw just one target and logged one yard against the Patriots. In Week 2, he caught four of four targets for 41 yards and one acrobatic, highlight-reel touchdown. In Week 3, Gesicki turned back into a pumpkin and caught his lone target for six yards.
Verdict: Sit. There’s a very wide range of potential outcomes for Gesicki in Week 4, making him a very risky play in season-long formats. Perhaps he finds the end zone on a SportsCenter-worthy play; it’s more likely he’ll be a dud. He is well outside of the TE1 tier based on his sub-6% paltry target share this year. I would much rather look for other options on the waiver wire, such as Tyler Conklin at the Steelers or Evan Engram at the Eagles.
Boyd has scored a touchdown in two of three contests this year. He logged 11 fantasy points in half PPR and finished as the WR30 in Week 1. In Week 2, he logged 19 fantasy points and finished as the WR9.
Boyd may be a tempting start coming off of a 105-receiving yard game. I will note that his two good games came when fellow receiver Tee Higgins missed some time in the concussion protocol. Higgins was knocked out of the game early in Week 1 and would not return. He took another hard hit in Week 3 against the Jets, but was able to return in the second half.
Verdict: Sit if you can. Even though Miami has been soft against opposing wideouts, Boyd is the team’s clear No. 3 behind Chase and Higgins. He is a boom-or-bust play who would likely require an injury to the aforementioned duo to be start-worthy this week.
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TE Hayden Hurst
Hurst saw a whopping 15 targets in the first two weeks of the season, though he didn’t do much with them. He tallied 10 catches for 70 yards in that span and was the TE14 and TE21 in half PPR. Entering Week 3, Hurst was banged up with a groin injury and only caught one pass for seven yards against the Jets.
Verdict: Sit if you can. One of these weeks, Hurst will break out. It could be this week against the Dolphins, who have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends this year. Hurst is a former first-round pick buried on this Bengals offensive depth chart behind the likes of Chase, Higgins, Joe Mixon and Boyd. Unfortunately, with his targets dwindling with each game, he cannot be trusted as a TE1.
RB Samaje Perine
I talked about Perine in my weekly waiver wire column on the heels of his best game of the season. Perine logged nine carries for 47 yards and caught two targets for 14 yards and a touchdown. He finished as the RB15 in half PPR and outproduced Mixon by a significant margin. Mixon was sidelined briefly with ankle soreness, which helped Perine have a field day against the Jets, and tallied 12 rushes for 24 yards and three catches for 14 yards.
Verdict: Sit. Barring news of a re-aggravation of this injury to Mixon, Perine is the clear cut No. 2 in the Cincinnati backfield. Perine is only startable if Mixon were to be significantly limited or fully out in this contest.
For Hill’s prop bets, Tua Tagovailoa’s ailments muddle the receiver’s props. For Hill’s anytime touchdown prop, if you’re inclined, roll with the market-best price at FanDuel at +130.
Giffen projects Hill with 0.51 TDs tonight, meaning +140 is the fair price.
As for Chase’s anytime TD prop, the number isn’t fair enough to make a play.
While the best price is at PointsBet (+100), Giffen needs +110 to even think about making this pick.
He’s leaning on the under for Chase to score a TD on account of Cincinnati throwing slightly fewer passes against the Dolphins than normal.
And for Mixon’s TD prop, the fair value is -130. If the line moves to -125 or -120, Giffen says the pick is bettable.
The Bengals are projected to be slightly more run heavy on Thursday night and Mixon in particular should have passing game involvement. Running backs have nabbed 74 receiving yards per game against the Dolphins this season.
The first three weeks of the NFL regular season are in the books, and now it’s time to hit the quarter pole! Let’s look at Week 4 with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know.
Welcome to Week 4 of the Action Network NFL betting primer.
1. Unders & Underdogs. It’s A Trend.
Through 48 games this season, the under is 30-18 (62.5%), the best start for the under through three weeks since 1996 and the third-best start in the Wild Card era (since 1990).
Let’s look at underdogs. they are 29-18-1 ATS through three weeks, and dating back to last season, underdogs are 59-36-1 ATS (62%) through three weeks combined from both seasons.
2. It’s Finally Over! (For sure this time…)
The Detroit Lions are listed as a 4-point favorites against the Seahawks this week. Detroit hasn’t been listed as a favorite in 26 games, a record in the Super Bowl era. The last time the Lions were favorites? Nov. 22, 2020 against the Carolina Panthers.
In Week 2 against the Commanders, the Lions opened as one-point underdogs, moved all the way to 2.5-point favorites and in the last twenty minutes before kickoff actually closed as underdogs at +1.
The Lions are also 3-0 against the spread to open a season for the first time since 1992.
3. On The Verge of History
If the Patriots close as high as 11-point underdogs this week in Lambeau, it will tie their biggest spread over the last 20 years.
Patriots as biggest underdogs in the last 20 years:
+11 at KC, 2020 (L, 26-20)
+9.5 at GB 2022
+9 at ARI 2016 (W, 23-21)
+9 at HOU 2009 (L, 34-27)
4. Across the Pond
The Vikings are 3-point favorites over the Saints in London this week. London favorites are 18-3-1 straight up and 15-7 against the spread without the Jaguars involved in any of the games. In early kickoffs (9/9:30 a.m. ET), they are 9-0-1 SU and 7-3 ATS.
5. Bounce Back Brady
Tom Brady is 7-2 SU and ATS after a loss with the Bucs. When Brady is listed as an underdog after a loss, he’s 13-3 SU and 15-1 ATS in his career (10-0 ATS last 20 years).
6. Off Broadway
The Bengals beat the Jets in New York on Sunday and now play on short rest on Thursday Night Football.
The Cowboys beat the Giants in New York on Monday night and now play on short rest at home this Sunday.
In the last 20 years, teams playing on short rest (six days or fewer) after playing the Giants or Jets in New York are 9-20 SU and 5-24 ATS in their next game.
7. South Beach Woes
The Bills are coming off a battle on South Beach against the Dolphins in Week 3.
Teams coming off a road game in Miami are 57-79-4 ATS (41.9%), a $100 bettor would be down $2,448, making Miami the least profitable previous road city in the last 20 years.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Thursday, Sept. 29, 5 p.m. ET.
The Bengals lost in Dallas and then beat the Jets in New York. In the last 20 years, teams returning home off a road trip (two or more road games) on short rest (six days or fewer) are just 67-82-5 ATS (45%).
South Beach Domination
Since 1978, the Dolphins are 14-4 SU and 13-5 ATS vs. Bengals.
Under The Lights
Primetime unders are 7-3 so far this season. Going back even further, they are 101-72-3 to under (58%) since 2019.
King Dog
Tua Tagovailoa is 9-3-1 ATS as an underdog in his career. He is the third-most profitable QB ATS as an underdog since being drafted in 2020.
What a Win Would Mean…
The Dolphins have never started a season 4-0 ATS dating back to 1978.
Tough Short Spot
Since 2015, teams coming off an outright win as an underdog that are also underdogs on Thursday Night Football are 0-12 straight-up (SU) and 1-11 against the spread (ATS). When they’re playing on the road, they’re 0-8 SU and ATS.
In the last 20 years, these teams are 6-27 SU, 10-22-1 ATS. On the road? 1-18 SU, 4-15 ATS.
If you want to make betting decisions for yourself but don’t have the time to collect all the data, check out our NFL PRO Report. This analysis highlights five key betting signals: big money, sharp action, expert projections, expert picks, and historical betting systems.
Fade Covering Teams: “Teams that are frequently covering by a large amount will be highly respected in the market. The public will also fall in love with these teams. When books adjust, the lines figure to be inflated, and these teams should statistically regress towards the mean.”
The Favorites Podcast: After another winning week in their NFL pick ’em contest, Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return for another breakdown of the full NFL board. Together they go Thursday Night Football all that way through Monday night covering the games from every betting angle, including our first early morning kickoff, live from London.
The Action Network Podcast: After hitting a juicy moneyline underdog parlay last week, Action hosts Chris Raybon and Stuckey return to preview the NFL betting board from Thursday to Sunday night. Together they build their Sunday Six Pack of spread picks, including some love for Mitch Trubisky and Matt Ryan, plus their favorite totals, teasers, and more. Who is the better coach: Kliff Kingsbury or Matt Rhule? Chris takes his stand with his top play this weekend.
For more Action Network podcasts, check out our page with a portfolio of ten different options across eight different sports.
Overseas. We have our first international game of this season. The under is 10-5 in international games since 2017.
+ There have been four NFL games played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. All four games have totaled at least 43 points, with the over 3-1.
+ In 34 international games, favorites are 26-7-1 SU, 23-11 ATS.
Down in Nola. Saints are 0-3 ATS for first time since 2012. They haven’t started 0-4 ATS since 2007.
-3
43.5
+3
Bills at Ravens
Home Cooking. The lookahead line had the Ravens +4 at home vs. the Bills, but Baltimore is now a 3.5-point home dog. The Ravens are 5-0 ATS as a home underdog over the last five years.
Belichick Effect. Ravens are 1-6 ATS after playing the Patriots in the regular season under John Harbaugh.
Don’t Tease Me. Lamar Jackson is 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS as an underdog, including 9-1 when placed in a six-point teaser as an underdog.
Pump The Brakes. Mike Tomlin is 9-4-1 ATS on more than a full week of rest over the last five years, making him the most profitable coach ATS in the NFL (+$448).
Since 2017, Steelers are 6-1 SU/ATS on extended rest off a loss.
Tomlin is 17-10 ATS off a double-digit loss, including 7-2 SU/ATS after facing an AFC North opponent.
But, Remember…
Trubisky off a loss: 8-15-2 ATS (34.8%; -$745) – fourth-least profitable QB in NFL since being drafted (106th of 109 QBs).
No Advantage. The Jets have played three teams on extended rest under Robert Salah: 0-3 SU (1-2 ATS)
Against The Grain. Fade home teams on long rest after losses. Normal logic would tell you to do the opposite.
Teams on at least 10 days rest at home, coming off a loss vs. divisional opponent are 23-43-1 ATS (34.8%), including 12-30 ATS as a favorite.
Frank’s Cold. Frank Reich is 15-11-1 SU vs. divisional opponents as coach of the Colts. Over the last 20 years, his 11 losses are the most of any Colts head coach vs. divisional opponents.
Yikes. Matt Ryan is 2-6 SU, 1-7 ATS as a home favorite over the last three seasons. His 1-7 ATS mark is second-worst in the NFL ahead of only Baker Mayfield (4-10 ATS).
Dog Again. Back Mike Vrabel as an underdog. He’s 20-15 SU as a dog, ranking him second of 143 qualified coaches (+$2,499).
Tough Home Life. Giants are 66-88-4 ATS (42.9%) at home in the last 20 years, the second-least profitable home team ATS in the NFL (ahead of just the Raiders). The Giants have finished a season above .500 ATS once since 2009 (in 2016).
It hasn’t helped Daniel Jones, either.
Daniel Jones career Home: 8-13 ATS (-$573; 78 of 82 QB) Road: 13-6 ATS (+$616; 4th of 84 QB)
Bad Start. Justin Fields is 4-9 ATS as a starting QB, including 3-8 ATS as an underdog.
Fun Fact. The only two teams in the last 15 years to have averaged fewer than 100 pass yards entering Week 4 or later: 2022 Bears in Week 4 and 2021 Bears in Week 4.
Chalk Jones. This would be just the third time Daniel Jones closes above a field-goal favorite…
Daniel Jones above FG favorite (0-2 ATS) -6.5, at CIN, W 19-17 (2020) -3.5 vs CHI (2022) -3.5 vs. ARI, L 27-21 (2019)
Road Trip. Trevor Lawrence has played two games in his career on the second leg of a road trip. Jaguars are 0-2 SU/ATS, failing to cover by 17.3 PPG.
Tough Flight. Jags are on a road trip from PST to EST. In the last decade, those teams are 18-29-1 ATS (40.4%), including 4-13 ATS when the home team is above .500 SU.
Hurts So Good. When MVP odds opened in February, Jalen Hurts was 40-1. By Week 1 he was 22-1, and now he’s down to 7-1, which is fourth behind Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.
Turn Around. The Jags won by 28 last week and are now six-point dogs. The last team to win by 28+ points and be listed as high as a six-point underdog? 2018 Broncos. Teams in this spot have lost 11 consecutive games SU and are 3-8 ATS.
+ a PST road team in EST is 37-23-1 ATS since 2019. + Teams going from PST to EST are 81-54-3 ATS 1H since 2017
30 Years Later. The Lions haven’t started the season 3-0 ATS since the 1992 season.
The Good & The Bad.
+ Jared Goff is 8-1 ATS in his last nine games. + Goff has lost six straight games SU vs. teams averaging fewer than 20 PPG (DET/LAR).
On The Brink. Lions haven’t covered five straight games since 2018 (four straight currently).
Ford Strong. The Lions are now 2-0 at Ford Field against the spread and are now 8-2 since last year, tying the Packers at 80 percent for best in the NFL. What’s amazing about that is that Detroit is 4-15-1 straight up overall.
+ Kingsbury is 7-2 ATS when playing on the East Coast after playing at home in his previous game (8-3 ATS overall for ARI/Kliff on EST).
+ Road/Home Kliff…
Home: 9-17 ATS, -5.5 ATS (59 of 59 coaches)
Road: 18-7-2 ATS, +6.1 ATS (second of 59 coaches)
All Carolina. Panthers won & covered six straight vs. Cardinals since 2014.
Hold The Door. Panthers have gone 20 straight games without allowing an openingdrive touchdown — an NFL record.
The Rhule. Matt Rhule is 3-10 ATS as a favorite, the second-worst coach ATS as a favorite since 2020.
Yes, It’s Real. The Panthers are 1-25 SU and 5-21 ATS when their opponent scores 17 points or more under Matt Rhule. Carolina is 10-0 SU/ATS when they allow 17 points or fewer.
Vegas Woes. The Broncos are 0-3 SU/ATS on road in Vegas, failing cover by 12.5 PPG. Denver was 10-6 ATS on the road in Oakland since 2003.
A Bad List. Through three weeks, only one team has lost all three of its games: the Las Vegas Raiders. The last team to be the only 0-3 squad through three games was the 1959 Detroit Lions, who finished the season 3-8-1.
Dating back to last season, the Raiders have the NFL’s longest ATS losing streak (four) after the Panthers snapped their nine-game streak last week.
They Love a Show. Overs are 11-6-1 (64.7%) at Allegiant Stadium, the third-most profitable stadium to over since Raiders moved to Vegas.
On The Contrary. Denver is the most reliable under team. 3-0 this year, 44-23-1 since 2018, best in the NFL.
Crazy Spot. Raiders are the second team last 20 years to be 0-3 SU and be listed as a favorite with this low of an average margin of victory (-4.33): 2009 Titans, who lost by 20 in Jacksonville.
Connection. Davante Adams has caught a touchdown pass from Derek Carr in 12 straight games, dating back to their Fresno State days.
Terrible Start. Broncos have scored fewer than 17 points in three straight games. Those such teams are 40-23-1 1H ATS (63.5%) since 2017 (5-1 1H ATS last six games in Week 4).
But should we expect a Russ bounce back? He threw for fewer than 200 yards in the win vs. 49ers. He’s 16-25-2 ATS in the next game after throwing for fewer than 200 yards since 2015.
Skidding. Raiders have the NFL’s longest ATS losing streak (four) after Panthers snapped their streak last week.
Legends Meet. Aaron Rodgers has faced Bill Belichick twice. The Patriots are 1-1 SU/ATS back in 2014 and 2018 with Tom Brady.
Struggling Offense. Rodgers has faced a team averaging 20 PPG or fewer 35 times. He’s 30-5 SU and 22-11-2 ATS.
Don’t Doubt Bill. Belichick is 36-13 SU (73.5%) and 38-10-1 ATS (79.2%) after a loss as either an underdog or under a TD favorite over the last 20 years. He’s 12-2 SU and 13-0-1 ATS in this spot in his first four games of the season.
Mac Attack. With Mac Jones injured, we have a backup QB in New England this week. This is just the sixth time they’ve done that in the last decade (3-2 SU/ATS). This is only their second time as a TD underdog or higher:
2020 Hoyer/Mahomes (+11, L 26-10) 2016 Jimmy G/Palmer (+9, W, 23-21)
Overall, backup QBs as double-digit dogs are 14-103 SU but 55-61-1 ATS over the last decade.
Time for Hoyer. Brian Hoyer as starter is 16-24 SU and 21-17-2 ATS. Since 2016, Hoyer is 1-12 SU and 5-8 ATS.
Of 121 QBs since 2016, Hoyer is 117th overall on moneyline profitability.
In the last decade, Hoyer has played ten games as a backup QB: he’s 4-6 SU/ATS, losing SU & ATS in his last 5 starts as a backup.
Florida Man. A lot was made of Rodgers’ struggles in Florida. He’s 7-2 ATS after playing in Florida in his NFL career.
First Time, Long Time. Patriots are 0-2-1 ATS to open the season, the first time they haven’t covered one of their first three games since 1995.
Bill or Tom? New England allowed 37 points against the Ravens last week. The Patriots are 14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS the week after allowing 35 points or more over the last 20 years (8-0 SU/ATS in the last decade).
Works Here, Too. The Packers only managed 14 points in their win in Tampa Bay last week. Aaron Rodgers is 17-3 SU and 16-4 ATS after scoring 14 pts or fewer in his previous game.
Tired Tom. Tom Brady opened the season by beating the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, but primetime hasn’t been friendly to him. Brady is 2-12 against the spread in his last 14 primetime games.
Goat vs. Goat.
Brady and Mahomes have met a total of five times. Brady is 3-2 SU/ATS vs. Mahomes.
Brady and Mahomes have met three times in primetime (playoffs/night). Brady is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS.
Bounceback Brady. The cover king is in a pretty spot…
Brady is 7-2 SU/ATS after a loss with Bucs. When Brady is listed as a dog after a loss, he’s 13-3 SU, 15-1 ATS in his career (10-0 ATS last 20 years).
Brady is 8-3 SU, 10-1 ATS as a home dog in his career.
Brady is 5-1 SU, 6-0 ATS off a loss when listed as a home dog.
Brady is 21-2 SU and 17-6 ATS after scoring 14 points or fewer in the previous game over the last 20 years.
Don’t Forget Patrick. Mahomes off a loss: 11-3 SU, 7-7 ATS.
Mahomes has never been listed as an underdog off a loss (-1 in 2018 at Seattle was lowest, L 38-31. That game was also in PT at night). Mahomes is 7-1 SU on the road off a loss.
Confidence in Jimmy. The 49ers are 35-17 straight up and 29-22-1 against the spread with Jimmy Garoppolo as QB. With all other QBs in that span? They are 9-29 SU and 16-22 ATS.
Jimmy G excels against teams above .500: 18-8 SU/ATS. Since his first start in 2017, he’s the most profitable QB vs. opponents over .500.
Bad Spot. The 49ers are 6-7 SU and 3-9-1 ATS as a favorite vs. the NFC West under Kyle Shanahan.
Role Reversal. Sean McVay is 5-2 ATS as a dog vs. NFC West. Only once with McVay & Stafford: +3, 2021 at Cardinals. LAR won 30-23.
McVay is also 4-1 ATS vs. NFC West with Stafford & Goff.
Not to mention, Shanahan in his career as head coach (since 2017):
Primetime Russ? In Russell Wilson’s career, he is 29-18-3 ATS (61.7%) under the lights (6 p.m. ET or later), the fourth-most profitable QB in Bet Labs behind Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers. But recently, Russ is just 3-10 ATS in his last 13 starts in primetime.
The Jaguars have been favored just twice since September of 2020 (a total of 33 games). Week 5 will be their third time overall, and all three games as a favorite have come against the Texans. The Jaguars lost both games by 14+ points.
Steelers at Bills
At the moment, the Steelers are listed as 13-point underdogs in Buffalo. That would be the second-largest spread as an underdog for the Steelers since 1978.
Steelers Largest Underdog Since 1978
+13.5 vs. Cowboys (Super Bowl 30)
+13 at Bills (2022)
+11.5 at Chiefs (2021-22 playoffs)
+11.5 at Oilers (1992)
We have just 54 days until the FCS playoff selection show, so it’s time to assess the FCS layout and lock in any futures you may not already have.
And for those who aren’t familiar with the FCS, I think it’s important to understand this is not your father’s College Football Playoff.
The FCS comprises of 128 members. Nine programs are in the reclassification process, leaving 119 programs eligible for the FCS playoffs. The FCS playoffs are much closer to a football version of March Madness than they are the College Football Playoff:
Field of 24 teams
10 conference champions with an automatic bid
14 teams with at-large bids
Top-eight teams receive a first-round bye
The 10 FCS conferences that receive automatic bids include the ASUN/WAC Alliance, Big Sky, Big South, Colonial, Missouri Valley, Northeast, OVC/Southland Alliance, Patriot, Pioneer and Southern.
The Ivy League, the MEAC and the SWAC do not receive auto bids, and the Ivy forbids postseason play. The champions of the MEAC and SWAC square off in the Celebration Bowl, which is held on Dec. 17.
The ASUN and WAC will each have their own season, but a tie-breaking scenario will determine one automatic bid recipient from the alliance at the end of the season.
Below are three teams I believe hold value when it comes to placing FCS futures, along with one longshot.
One team you will notice that’s specifically excluded is North Dakota State. The Bison have won the FCS Championship nine times since 2011 and are consistently the best team in the FCS. There’s no value in taking them at just +200.
All odds below are current as of Sept. 28 and via WynnBET.
The Grizzlies have made back-to-back quarterfinal appearances, and many expect this to be the year they break through.
Montana returns a ton of key players from last year, specifically on defense — a unit that last season ranked eighth in scoring defense, giving up just 16.3 points per game. It also finished second in turnovers, fifth in sacks and third in tackles for loss.
The Griz are off to a 4-0 start on the season but have a weaker schedule strength (85th overall). Their first four opponents’ records add up to just 3-15.
Their defense has picked up right where it left off last year, holding teams to just 9.25 points per contest so far. The offense, meanwhile, is firing on all cylinder while averaging an astounding 42.35 points per game.
I’m looking to lock in Montana as soon as possible, as it’s one of the most experienced teams in FCS and has proven its ability to make it to later rounds of the playoffs in the past two seasons.
Over the next month, the Grizzlies will face two top-10 teams in Weber State and Sacramento State. If they beat them both, this number will fall drastically. I think they can win, and at the very least, will challenge the two.
Incarnate Word Cardinals (+800 · 0.6 Units)
The odds on Incarnate Word took a jump this week after it fell to Southeast Louisiana, 41-35. This feels like a huge opportunity to buy one of the most high-powered offenses the FCS has to offer.
Incarnate Word is led by quarterback Lindsey Scott Jr. — one of the best quarterbacks in all of FCS and maybe college football. He did throw an interception late in the fourth quarter in the loss to SELA, but this is one of the few mistakes he’s made so far this season. I don’t expect him to make many more.
UIW is 3-1 on the season and owns wins over FBS Nevada and No. 9 Southern Illinois.
It plays in the Southland and will have to traverse the additional challenge of beating out an OVC team for an automatic bid. But even if it receives an at-large bid, I’m still confident in its ability to make a run in the postseason.
This team is stacked with talent all the way down the roster, its offense is electric, and a new coaching staff brings looks many other coaches aren’t familiar with. The defense needs some work, but it’s something I think it can figure out as the season progresses.
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Delaware Blue Hens (+800 · 1 Unit)
The 2022 season couldn’t be off to a better start for the Blue Hens, and I think their winning ways will continue through to the postseason.
Delaware sits at 4-0 on the season and atop the CAA standings, with an FBS win over Navy to boot. A CAA team has reached the FCS playoff semifinals for nine consecutive years, and the conference has also had a team in the championship 11 times dating back to 2003.
The offense has put up 35 points or more points in three of its four games this season, while the defense has held three out of four opponents to less than 10 points.
Quarterback Nolan Henderson sits among the top five quarterbacks in FCS, already racking up more than 1,100 passing yards on the season while completing 69% of his attempts.
Again this is a market I expect to drop considerably in the near future — most likely the Hens take on William & Mary in two weeks. The Tribe are a top-25 team and likely their biggest challenge until they end the season at Villanova.
Longshot: Chattanooga Mocs (+4000 · 0.4 Units)
Don’t overlook Chattanooga just because it was shut out by Illinois a week ago. This is still a strong FCS football team that ranks 10th in the subdivision. Yes, it was outmatched by one of the best running backs in FBS, but it has quite an impressive run game itself.
Running back Ailym Ford leads the team in rushing yards and is also a serious threat as a pass-catcher, ranking third on the team in receiving yards.
The Mocs boast a top-20 offense in the FCS, averaging 36.7 points and 435.7 yards per game.
They just missed making the playoffs last year, and they bring back a lot of experience on both sides of the ball. I expect this to be the first season that head coach Rusty Wright breaks through and gets his team into the mix for a shot at the FCS Championship.
In total, this puts us at four units of risk on FCS futures.
In the event any of these teams find themselves pitted against North Dakota State in the postseason and you want to hedge, you can back the Bison spread at double the risk of your original future — NDSU has won its last 10 playoff games by an average of 14.3 points.
The Bison are the best team in the FCS and have been for 10 years. If you want to make it easy on yourself, lay four units on the Bison. I wouldn’t judge you; it’s just not how I bet futures.
Each week, to coincide with the release of the “Group of Five Deep Dive” under the Big Bets On Campus podcast banner, I’ll be sharing my Group of Five parlay of the week.
We came within 2.5 points of a clean sweep last week, but as it turned out, Old Dominion’s monster second half against Arkansas State wasn’t enough to seal the deal.
Akron flirted with an outright upset, which is something to keep in the back pocket as it enters MAC play. The Zips could steal a win or two in conference play as their offense continues to gel in Year 1 of the Joe Moorhead era.
With conference play kicking off in earnest for most of the G5, I’m fading a preseason darling, counting on a bounce-back performance in the MAC, and expecting a points-filled affair in Fun Belt country.
Reported odds and specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing.
Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
Tulane vs. Houston
Friday, Sept. 30
7 p.m. ET
ESPN
Tulane ML +125
Houston is wounded physically and emotionally. Derek Parish, the driving force behind its “Sack Avenue” defensive line, is out for the year. But that’s just the beginning. The Cougs have seven starters either out or dinged up.
This was the same U-of-H program that had New Years Six aspirations just a month ago. Now sitting at 2-2, it seemed deflated, evidenced by its near loss to lowly Rice last week. The Cougars edged out the Owls by seven at home, and all the postgame commentary was as though they lost.
Dana Holgorsen is beginning to point fingers, and other hallmarks of a team on the verge of a collapse are emerging, namely issues with penalties.
Things went south in hurry during Holgo’s first season in H-Town, resulting in the departure of D’Eriq King after four games. Could we be in line for another meltdown?
Meanwhile, Tulane is riding high with a 3-1 record complete with a tremendous road win over K-State. The passing game is explosive (9.4 YPA), and Michael Pratt looks rejuvenated under a new offensive staff.
If it hadn’t had a rough kicking night against Southern Miss with a blocked punt and field goal, it would be 4-0.
Running back Tyjae Spears has also stepped up, giving the Green Wave excellent balance in Jim Svoboda’s first season as offensive coordinator.
The final piece of this upset puzzle is the Green Wave defense, particuarly their secondary. Against all odds, the TU pass defense has been great thus far, cracking the top 10 in a handful of key metrics.
Chris Hampton has completed a major turnaround for the Green Wave, who ranked 120th against the pass last year. If they can rein in the Houston passing attack, I have faith in the Tulane offense to finish the job.
Pick: Tulane ML +125
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Ohio vs. Kent State
Saturday, Oct. 1
3:30 p.m. ET
ESPN+
Kent State -11
This game begins and ends with defense.
Kent State’s historically bad defense from last year has improved against an unprecedent Power Five nonconference slate. The Golden Flashes faced three top-seven offenses in September, yet they’ve improved across the board under new defensive coordinator Jeremiah Johnson.
Ohio is headed in the opposite direction on defense. It opened the season allowing 38 to FAU, 46 to Penn State and 43 to Iowa State.
But the roof really fell in on the Bobcats on Saturday. The Ohio defense surrendered 52 points to FCS Fordham, dropping its run defense to 92nd nationally and its pass defense to the bottom of the barrel of the FBS ranks (376.3 yards per game).
Yes, the Bobcats have the Maple Missile, quarterback Kurtis Rourke, coming off of a career game. But it’s the Kent State offense that looks primed to pop in conference play.
Collin Schlee enters as the sixth-rated passer, according to ESPN’s QBR metric. The trio of Devontez Walker, Dante Cephas and Marquez Cooper have also all had their moments against elite athletes in the past four games, including matchups against Washington, Oklahoma and Georgia.
This line opened at 7 and has bubbled up to 11, but I would still play this all the way up to Kent -13 against a listless Bobcat defense.
Pick: Kent State -11
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Georgia Southern vs. Coastal Carolina
Saturday, Oct. 1
6 p.m. ET
ESPN+
Over 64
It goes without saying this weekend, but any game in the Southeast has the potential to be impacted by Hurricane Ian. This matchup is no expectation.
As it stands, the weather prediction calls for light wind and rain in the area. The weather doesn’t concern me in regard to this total as much as Grayson McCall’s ankle.
The Chanticleers’ field general is the critical chess piece on the board in this game, and if he’s limited or sidelined, this becomes a pass for me. McCall got in a limited practice on Wednesday, and head coach Jamey Chadwell expects his veteran passer to suit up, according to Brandon Dunn of WPDE in Myrtle Beach.
McCall has been cooking in 2022, posting an 11:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, connecting on 70% of his attempts and peppering in a couple of rushing touchdowns.
If he’s near full-strength, he’ll be throwing into an awful Georgia Southern defense. Teams can run on the Eagles (5.7 YPC, 123rd), and their pass rush is nonexistent (125th in Sack Rate). That should allow for the Chants to show off their full playbook while chipping in at least 35 points.
The pleasant surprise of what has been an insane September for the Sun Belt East has been the Eagles’ emergence as a dynamic offense. Kyle Vantrease has three 300-plus yard games and has accounted for 10 touchdowns through four games.
Jalen White is giving them nice balance on the ground, averaging 5.4 yards per carry with six scores already to his name. Can they do damage against Coastal’s defense? If early returns are any indication, absolutely.
In a word, the Coastal defense is struggling. Despite a schedule of Army, Gardner-Webb, Buffalo and Georgia State, the Chanticleers have allowed over 26 points per game and have had a tough time getting off the field (83rd in 3rd-down defense).
They haven’t even been able to pull off the bend-don’t-break approach, ranking 76th in red-zone defense. They’re also allowing big plays through the air (7.9 YPA) with regularity. The Chants have given up 16 plays of 20-plus yards through the air this year, ranking 103rd.
Two lackluster defenses against dynamic offenses is a perfect recipe for an over.
Pick: Over 64
College Football Week 5 Group of Five Parlay (+703)
Hurricane Ian has already struck Florida with devastating impact in the Sunshine State, especially on the western Gulf Coast. Multiple college football games have been canceled or rescheduled for a different time or location as a result of the storm.
Ian is headed into the Atlantic Ocean in northeast Florida on Thursday before an expected second landfall in coastal South Carolina as a tropical storm on Friday afternoon or evening.
As Ian makes its way inland and weakens, the weather forecasting models are getting a clearer picture of what the storm may look like by Saturday. The storm’s quick weakening suggests the games will not be impacted nearly as much as the previous outlook earlier in the week projected.
Here’s a weather primer on what to expect across the board in the games that could be impacted by Ian.
The biggest college football game of the weekend may see some minor impacts to College GameDay in the morning or potential issues around the area with just how much rain will hit Clemson on Friday as Ian comes onshore.
However, most models have the storm’s center — or what’s left of it by then — to the north of Clemson by 8 a.m. ET Saturday. Given that most of the heavy rain bands and the majority of the precipitation are on the northern and northeastern side of Ian, we should not expect any rain impacts during the game on Saturday.
Heavy winds are caused by large differences in pressure, and that’s why it’s important to note just how much weaker Ian will be by Saturday.
The GFS model has Ian at 1004 mb by Saturday morning, which is incomparably weaker than its current state. That will dial back the wind impacts from the storm greatly, especially as the storm pulls away.
Given that UNC and Duke’s campuses are within close proximity of one another, it’s fair to assume the forecast will be similar for both games.
The total in the VT-UNC game dropped from an open of 58 to the current consensus line of 51. I strongly disagree with this movement given the modeled weather projections on Saturday afternoon in Chapel Hill.
I already wrote above about the declining wind concern from the storm. When Ian is just offshore at 982 mb, it can pack a serious wind punch. But with rapid weakening, the wind just isn’t going to be a real issue after further investigation.
The total for Virginia-Duke dropped from 57 at the open all the way to 49, and this is also an overreaction to the storm. There could be a heavy shower.
There could still be an occasional rain threat to the Chapel Hill/Durham area, but I don’t see wind making much of an impact on the games being played in the Carolinas on Saturday.
I’d expect occasional gusts, but nothing sustained over 10 MPH.
Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina
Saturday, Oct. 1 · 4 p.m. ET
Coastal Carolina is in a more unique situation because of its proximity to the Atlantic Ocean in Conway, South Carolina.
Even though Ian will likely make landfall well to the south, Coastal’s campus is positioned to the north of the storm’s eye. The coast will be under immense pressure from storm surge due to the onshore wind flow for hours as Ian approaches land.
Most of that damage will happen on Friday, and it’s not clear how well the field will hold up under heavy, heavy rainfall on Friday. Some model projections have 3-5” of rain falling in Conway on top of the storm surge.
As for the actual game conditions, I don’t see any impacts from the storm at all. It all comes down to how well the field drains from the day before.
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Texas State at James Madison
Saturday, Oct. 1 · 1:30 p.m. ET
The biggest question is what happens to the rain bands on the northern end of Ian as the storm rapidly weakens. The long-range, large-scale models don’t tend to pick this up well, and the short-range, more-detailed weather models aren’t quite as accurate this far out as of writing on Wednesday evening.
It’s too early to say what the impacts will be for James Madison’s home game on Saturday in Harrisonburg.
This area is probably under the most wind threat of all of the games because the bands are harder to predict. There will likely be thunderstorms and potential heavy rain scattered throughout the mid-Atlantic, but history suggests that a rapidly weakened tropical storm will not pack a consistent punch.
Instead, expect more sporadic heavy rains that could potentially impact this game. The total has dropped from 55 to 50.5 in the current market, and that’s probably still an overreaction.
Conclusion on Hurricane Ian’s Week 5 Impact
Almost all of the totals rapidly dropped on Monday after the openers came out due to potential rain and wind. Most of them are now likely too low given the lack of evidence for bad weather during the games on Saturday.
As horrifying as Ian has been for the residents of Florida and will continue to be in the Carolinas on Friday, don’t expect much of Ian to be left by Saturday. Models have converged on rapid weakening and deintensifying.
The Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox are wrapping up a four game series on Thursday afternoon. After the absolute offensive explosions on Monday and Tuesday, things settled down Wednesday.
The Orioles look to keep their razor thin playoff hopes alive as they look to salvage a series split in Boston.
Nathan Eovaldi will return from the Injured List on Thursday afternoon as he looks to snuff out the Orioles’ playoff hopes. Mike Baumann will be on the mound looking to keep the Orioles alive in the wild card race.
Baltimore Orioles: Does Baltimore Have Enough Pitching Left?
The Orioles’ offense has done its best to try to keep the team afloat down the home stretch. Over the past two weeks, the Orioles have had the best team wRC+ against RHP on the road and they look to stay hot against Nathan Eovaldi.
Mike Baumann has not racked up a ton of innings, let alone starts, for the Orioles. However, in that small sample he has been pretty shaky on the road. He has a 5.40 road ERA and a 4.32 FIP in just over six road innings.
He’s also backed by an Orioles’ bullpen that has fallen off in the second half. After being one of the better units in the league for the majority of the season, they have become a below average bunch in the final months of the season.
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Boston Red Sox: Can Red Sox Ruin O’s Postseason Hopes?
The Red Sox look to play the role of spoiler and their offense has been on a roll. Boston owns the eighth best team wRC+ at home against RHP over the past two weeks and it has a prime match up against Mike Baumann.
The main concern is which Nathan Eovaldi will show up at Fenway on Thursday afternoon as he’s been inconsistent this season.
One thing is for sure, his bullpen will not be there to back him up. The Red Sox’s ‘pen has struggled mightily over the past couple of weeks and they are in the bottom five in FIP over that stretch.
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Orioles-Red Sox Pick
The Orioles have a lot on the line heading into Thursday’s matchup, but they may not have the pitching to get them into the postseason. However, the Red Sox have an equally shaky pitching situation as their bullpen has been overworked this season and it’s starting to show.
The over is set at 9 runs and considering how hot both offenses are and how bad the pitching situations look, the over should be the play here. Some books still have it available at -110. If you can find it there, that should be the move, but it could still be played to -120 or better.
The FanDuel Sportsbook promo code is back for Thursday Night Football between the Dolphins and Bengals.
FanDuel is offering a no-sweat bet up to $1,000 — meaning if you lose your first bet, you’ll get the amount you wagered back in free bets (up to $1,000).
We put together a guide of the different lingo that sportsbooks use to name their promotions and bonus offers. We recommend reading up so you know what you’re getting into, but we’ll also cover it below.
Here’s how the $1,000 no-sweat bet works (many other books call it a “risk-free” bet, but there is some risk to it, which we’ll explain below).
Most people won’t deposit $1,000, so your first bet will be no-sweat up to whatever amount you put in.
Here’s an example for TNF:
You deposit $50 and bet $50 on a same game parlay of Bengals moneyline and Tee Higgins to score a touchdown, which pays around +200.
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“Free bets” can be placed on anything but not withdrawn as cash. You must win your wager with them to withdraw the profits.
Let’s say somehow that first bet on Bengals/Higgins to score doesn’t hit. Unlikely, we know, just bear with us.
You’ve now got $50 in free bets you want to place on another NFL game on Sunday.
You take Ravens +150 against the Bills on Sunday afternoon.
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How to Use Your FanDuel Sportsbook Promo Code Bonus
The Iowa Hawkeyes love being underdogs at Kinnick Stadium.
The Hawkeyes are in that spot this Saturday as they face No. 4 Michigan as an 11-point underdog.
When the Hawkeyes are home underdogs, they’ve gone 10-7-2 against the spread since 2005; but the better the opponent, the better they seem to play.
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Iowa as Home Underdogs
Iowa is 5-1-1 ATS as a home underdog against teams ranked No. 7 or better in the AP Poll.
Of those seven games, the Hawkeyes have won four of them outright.
And it gets even better when the spread climbs to 10 or higher.
The Hawkeyes were double-digit ‘dogs in three of the seven games in which they were catching points at Kinnick against top-seven foes. They covered the spread in all three of those games and won two of them outright.
The lone loss came against Penn State in 2017 when they were 13-point underdogs and lost by two.
Although it’s a small sample size, potentially full of noise, Action Network college football analyst Stuckey believes there’s some substance around the Iowa trend.
“Not only do the Hawkeyes have an incredible home field advantage, they tend to win all of the other phases of the game: Penalties, special teams and turnovers; those add up,” he said.
“Plus, given Iowa’s style and limitations, the totals are usually super low, implying games with fewer possessions.”
Iowa has a unique opportunity to keep that streak alive as it opened as a 4.5-point ‘dog on a lookahead line.
Now that the line has moved to double digits, it’s difficult to look past them.
The defense is good enough to compete with the likes of Michigan; it’s the offense that needs to show up.
The Hawkeyes rank 121st out of 131 FBS programs by averaging 17 points per game. They’re also 124th in passing yards (131) and 116th in rushing yards per game (101.5).
There are 10 games on Major League Baseball’s Thursday slate, including several will playoff implications.
While a game doesn’t need to have playoff implications to present betting value, our experts have targeted games involving the Mariners and Phillies, both of which hope to be playing deep into October.
Thursday’s best bets have us hoping for plenty of offense as we’ve targeted a pair of overs and a runline.
Collin Whitchurch: The White Sox season went in the tank hard for, well, most of the season, but particularly the past two weeks, when any shred of postseason hope was buried under 20 tons on concrete.
It went in the tank so hard that Lucas Giolito — an established starting pitcher who entered the season as something of a Cy Young darkhorse — is only a short home favorite against Louie Varland, a non-prospect making his fourth career start.
The fact that oddsmakers have adjusted to the putridity that is the end of the White Sox season makes it tough to find value on either side, but there’s plenty of value on the total at 7.5. While the White Sox have been unbearably bad, it’s tough to imagine them not scratching across a few runs against the unheralded Varland and a Minnesota bullpen that has a few warts of its own.
Giolito has been pretty fade-able for most of the season, and while his expected stats indicate a little bit of poor luck, his velocity has dipped this season and he has performed poorly against the Twins for most of his career. The total is about a run too low in Thursday afternoon’s matchup.
I like over 7.5 at -110 and would bet it to -120. If the line moves, I would bet over 8 at -105 or better, but would pass at 8.5.
Jules Posner: Ranger Suarez has been a very solid road pitcher this season. He brings a 2.67 road ERA and a 3.45 road FIP into Thursday’s game against a Cubs’ offense that may be overachieving against lefties at the moment.
The Cubs have been one of the better home offenses against lefties over the past month, but their 144 team wRC+ has been buoyed by an unsustainably high .412 BABIP in a relatively small sample.
On the other side, the Phillies’ offense has been incredibly unlucky on the road against right handers over the past couple of weeks. Their 71 team wRC+ over than span has been weighed down by a .204 BABIP over that same timeframe. However, they have a .181 ISO over that span, so they should be due for some positive regression.
Javier Assad may be the candidate for the Phillies to bounce back against. The rookie has a 6.35 ERA and a 6.82 FIP in 11 1/3 home innings this season. The Phillies runline has not been posted at the time of this writing, but judging by their moneyline odds of roughly -185, there’s a good chance the runline posts in solid plus money.
The runline should certainly be the play if it’s in plus money, but could be played at -115 or better.
William Boor: It’s always important to consider motivation at this point in the baseball calendar and although the Mariners are fighting for a wild card berth and the Rangers are simply playing out the schedule, it’s hard to back Seattle in this spot.
The Mariners have struggled of late and are limping toward the finish line, so let’s tackle the total instead.
A struggling Marco Gonzales will get the start for Seattle and Jon Gray, who has thrown well recently, will start for the Rangers. Gray has given up just three earned runs over his past three starts (13 innings), though I’m anticipating a bit of regression in this divisional matchup because the Mariners have some familiarity with the right hander. Seattle has already faced Gray twice this season and racked up eight earned runs over 11 1/3 innings.
In the same way the Mariners are familiar with Gray, the Rangers are familiar with Gonzales — Texas’ offense has scored 17 earned runs over 29 2/3 innings (5.16 ERA) against Gonzales this season.
While that alone is intriguing for over bettors, it gets even more enticing when factoring in that Gonzales enters this game in a bit of a funk. The 30-year-old lefty has surrendered eight earned runs over 11 1/3 innings in his past two starts — perhaps an indication the expected regression from his 4.52 xERA and 4.05 ERA is starting to hit.
Even if this total doesn’t hit early, there will be plenty of opportunities for runs to score late. The Mariners bullpen has been solid this season, but has an ERA over five over the past week. Meanwhile, the Rangers bullpen has posted an ERA over four over the past week. These two pitching staffs aren’t exactly shutting down opponents of late.
These teams also tend to play high-scoring games. The Rangers and Mariners have played 18 times this season and have combined for seven or more runs 12 times. This total opened at 7 and I’d play it to 8.
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After a week off, the UFC returns on Saturday night. We have a 13-fight card coming live from the UFC Apex center starting at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT) on ESPN+.
For those looking to get some action in but not residing in legal betting states, PrizePicks has you covered. They’re also a solid option for betting on player prop-style lines for MMA.
Below, you’ll find my favorite parlay for the card, as well as some additional options for those seeking bigger payouts.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
UFC Vegas 61 PrizePicks Parlay
Raoni Barcelos Over 60.5 Significant Strikes
Raoni Barcelos is taking on Trevin Jones in a bantamweight bout on Saturday night. This one has all the makings of a standup war, with both men absorbing more than five significant strikes per minute.
Barcelos is the more active offensive striker, though, landing nearly six per minute himself. With a seven-fight sample, that number should be fairly sticky. He also arrived at that number against fighters – on average – who are better defensively than Jones, since Jones absorbs considerably more strikes than the divisional average.
Barcelos is also a significant (-230 or so) betting favorite, meaning the markets are viewing him as likely to have some success here. I generally want to avoid betting overs on underdogs, so that’s a good sign.
Barcelos has topped this mark in three of his last four fights, with the lone exception a grappling-heavy fight with Said Nurmagomedov. Even with some manual downward adjustment from what my projections produced, he still is popping as the best Significant Strikes value on the card.
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Julija Stoliarenko Under 45.5 Significant Strikes
Julija Stoliarenko is one of the most one-dimensional UFC fighters on the roster. Since appearing on The Ultimate Fighter 28, she’s amassed a 6-3 record (counting non-UFC bouts.) She has five wins by ar bar, all of them in the first round – and four of them in the first minute.
It’s early-armbar-or-bust for the Lithuanian, which doesn’t leave much time to rack up significant strikes. She’s cleared this mark just once in her current four-fight UFC stint, and even then not by a wide margin.
With a significant-strikes landed rate of just 2.75 per minute, this fight going the distance isn’t even enough for her to get there on average. Unless her opponent – the debuting Chelsea Chandler – is a complete punching bag, I don’t see Stoliarenko picking up the striking considerably.
Even if Chandler is, that probably means Stoliarenko takes her down and armbars her anyway. This fight is roughly a toss-up, but Stoliarenko is unlikely to clear 46 strikes in a win or a loss.
My projections have her landing mid-20s significant strikes in this one, making the under a massive value.
Ilir Latifi Under 2.0 Takedowns: I’d be shocked if Ilir Latifi even attempted two takedowns on Saturday. He’s fighting Alexey Oleinik, a 45-year-old submission specialist. While Latifi is a capable grappler, his quickest path to victory is to strike with “The Boa Constrictor,” who’s 1-3 in his last four fights. Two of those losses were knockouts, and the only win was a submission
Mike Davis Under 12.5 Minutes: Mike Davis is fighting Viacheslav “Slava Claus” Borschev, who is taking the bout on roughly two weeks’ notice. Both fighters are high-action strikers, with a combined 12 knockouts in 15 pro wins. Between the striking styles and the short-notice nature potentially limiting Borschev’s cardio, under 2.5 rounds is a solid bet here.
The undefeated Miami Dolphins head to Cincinnati on a short week to take on the Bengals, who are fresh off their first win of the season. Miami took down the Super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills and is looking to continue its AFC dominance on Thursday night.
Primetime unders have reigned supreme, but is this the perfect spot to fade the trend and back a high-scoring game between two efficient offenses? Can Joe Burrow and the Bengals continue to right the ship at home?
I address those questions and more in Week 4’s edition of the Thursday Night Football same game parlay:
The Bengals’ offense took a huge step forward against the New YorkJets last week and is starting to play faster and sharper. After an easy, blowout victory, the Bengals face the Dolphins on a short week and have a clear advantage.
Aside from being at home, Miami is fresh off a taxing bout in the Florida heat. It was obvious that the offenses slowed in the second half and with Tua Tagovailoa nursing both a back and ankle injury, I love Cincinnati in this spot.
This is a perfect buy low, sell high spot. The Dolphins are undefeated and now face a struggling — in the public’s eye, that is — Bengals squad. But Xavien Howard is nursing a groin injury and this Miami secondary will be overmatched by the trio of Cincinnati receivers.
The Bengals also rank top five in pass rush and coverage, per PFF, and are seventh in rush defense. This is a slept-on defense that should continue to roll in Thursday night’s matchup.
Tyreek Hill
Over 70+ Receiving Yards (-158)
Following the narrative that the Dolphins will lose on Thursday, the offense will be forced into a negative game script. That benefits Tyreek Hill, who has been eyeing his matchup with Eli Apple and the Bengals all week.
Even with attention being put on Hill, I think his usage will see a huge uptick from last week. After racking up 184 yards over the first two weeks, Hill had just 33 yards on two receptions against the Bills. But, as I mentioned before, that was in the Miami heat and the offense was hardly on the field.
Buffalo had 63 pass attempts and 23 rushes compared to Miami’s 20 and 17, respectively. The Dolphins took away the home run play with Stefon Diggs over the top and forced Josh Allen to dink and dunk around the field, which led to few offensive possessions.
This week, I think the Bengals will move the ball with ease. Joe Mixon and Cincinnati’s trio of wide receivers should carve up the Miami defense. That will lead to more offensive plays and pass attempts, which should benefit Hill.
In the first two weeks, Hill was targeted 25 times. I’d expect another double-digit output on Thursday, giving Hill a good shot at eclipsing his over prop. Of course, he’s also a deep threat and could hit this number in one play.
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Over 47.5 (-114)
This builds off my reasoning on the Cincinnati moneyline play. I think this is the perfect game for the Bengals’ offense to erupt and go for four-plus touchdowns on their own. The Bengals have the perfect matchup on Thursday night, going against a defense that struggles in pass defense.
It’s no secret that primetime unders have been hitting over the past few weeks, but this is the perfect opportunity to fade the early season trend.
The Dolphins’ offense averages nearly 28 points per game and has two of the most explosive receivers in Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Tagovailoa has taken a huge step in the opening weeks of the season and I’d expect Miami to eclipse the 20-point mark themselves, especially given the up-tempo play in garbage time.
This comes down to finishing drives and I trust both teams to get the job done on Thursday night. These are two of the most high-powered offenses in football and both are capable of hitting a big play at any time. Fade the unders trend and expect offensive fireworks in Cincinnati.
Joe Mixon
Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
While Mixon has struggled establishing the run, he’s proven to be a versatile running back thanks to his pass-catching abilities.
Through three weeks, Mixon has 13 receptions for 103 yards. He’s eclipsed this number twice and should have no issues against a Dolphins defense that just surrendered 78 yards on nine receptions to Devin Singletary.
We could see a similar style defensively from the Dolphins on Thursday, where they try to bracket Ja’Marr Chase and force Burrow to look for his secondary reads.
The Bengals have ranked in the bottom 10 in pass blocking, per PFF, thus far and right tackle La’el Collins is questionable with an injury. That could lead to even more check-downs for Mixon, who has been targeted 20 times through three games.
This number is just 20.5 right now and Mixon could easily eclipse this number in one catch, though I expect closer to three or four receptions for the 26-year-old. I think we see a bounce-back game from Chase, but I prefer backing Mixon, who will take advantage of the defensive attention paid to Chase, Tee Higgins and co.
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Hayden Hurst
Anytime Touchdown (+260)
This is the home run play to bring the same game parlay full circle. Yes, it’s easy to go with Chase or Higgins, the top two receivers in this offense, or Mixon, who’s odds are well into the minus.
But I’m going with Hurst, the big tight end. Hurst was limited entering last week against the Jets, but was a full participant in Tuesday’s practice and should play his full workload on Thursday.
In the first two weeks of the year, Hurst played the third-most snaps and was targeted 7.5 times per game. He’s tied for the second-most targets of all Bengals receivers in the end zone, and in a game where I’m expecting plenty of offense, should have multiple opportunities to score his first touchdown as a Bengal.
The attention in the red zone will be on Chase, which opens plenty of opportunities for other receivers. The odds are so short on Mixon, Chase and Higgins that I love taking a stab at Hurst to round out this parlay.
He’s already proven to be a red zone target for Burrow and should have a couple of passes thrown his way against a Dolphins defense that has struggled against tight ends.
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The NHL season is right around the corner, with preseason play opening up across the league.
That means the NHL odds market is in full swing – and bettors are looking at a familiar face as the best place to find value in futures bets.
The Avalanche represent the biggest liability at BetMGM thus far in the NHL – and by some margin.
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Last year’s Stanley Cup champion has attracted both the most betting tickets (22.3%) and largest percentage of dollars wagered (33.5%) than any other hockey team.
Colorado was dominant throughout last season, securing the most points in the regular season and carving through teams in the playoffs. They’re listed at +450 to repeat to open this season, and you can view all teams’ odds here.
The next most-popular team in the Stanley Cup Finals market are the Rangers (+1800), who account for 9.1% of the wagers and 13.3% of the handle.
New York was able to get through two, tough, seven-game series in the playoffs last year before falling in the conference finals.
Canada’s favorite hockey team, the Maple Leafs (+800), are the third-biggest liabilities, tallying 6.7% of the wagers and 7.1% of the handle in the Cup Finals market.
As you might expect, the Rangers are the biggest threat for books to win the Eastern Conference, while the top Western Conference liability is Colorado.
New York’s listed at +900 to take the East while the Avalanche are a short +150 to win the West.
Regular-season play begins on October 7, when the Predators take on the Sharks in Prague.
Bet up to $1,000 on Detroit as your FIRST bet — use the regular NFL betting market
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The touchdown value on Hill continues to be a head-scratcher. The best number I tracked for him last season was -120. Last week against the Bills, he was +105.
This week, Hill is as low as +105 (FanDuel) or as high as +160 at bet365.
I’m not in love with Tua Tagovailoa as a quarterback, but it’s hard to argue with his success on deep balls this season. On passes 20 or more yards down the field, Tagovailoa ranks second in the NFL in completion percentage, with nine such passes and three touchdowns.
The Hill vs. Eli Apple matchup might be getting too much attention going into this game, but Tagovailoa did say in a press conference this week that he’s going to Hill if he sees 1-on-1 coverage.
Jaylen Waddle
ATD +175
Waddle leads the Dolphins this season in targets, receiving yards and red-zone targets. He’s in the top 10 in the NFL in targets and has scored TDs of the long and short variety this season. The second-year stud is also second in the NFL in Air Yards After Catch, which is Air Yards and yards after the catch combined.
A case can be made for Waddle being the best receiver on the Dolphins right now.
Waddle is +175 at bet365, which means he’s more appropriately priced than Hill. You can also get Waddle, for example, at +165 over at FanDuel.
Burrow has 23 career interceptions in 29 games. The Bengals also throw the ball so much that this is tough to pass on at a plus-money number.
Last season, Burrow attempted 32 passes per game and threw 14 INTs in 16 games. This season, he’s averaging more than 40 pass attempts per game.
The biggest issue for Burrow this season is his protection, as he’s been sacked 15 times through three games. Miami has an opportunistic defense, so I’ll happily play this as long as it’s a plus number.
We’ve got another barn burner of a Thursday Night Football game on Amazon Prime tonight. There are injuries to both teams on both sides of the field. The Bengals and Dolphins are coming off tough wins and now have to play on a short week.
That makes me believe the passing attacks will falter. I think the quarterbacks will target shorter passes instead of the big wide receivers downfield.
If that’s the case, we can make some money with our prediction on PrizePicks, which allows you to parlay NFL player props together and wager real money on them in 27 states.
Let’s dive into my two favorite PrizePicks plays for Thursday Night Football.
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Joe Mixon
Over 3 Receptions
I adore this play for four reasons.
First, the Bengals have a horrid offensive line. Cincinnati has the fourth-highest adjusted sack rate in the NFL and Joe Burrow has been sacked the most times. Burrow is pressured on almost every play, and it often requires him to hit his hot read out of the backfield.
Second, Joe Mixon is the hot read. And he’s been targeted a ton.
Five RB's are seeing 6+ targets per game: -Austin Ekeler (7.3) -Breece Hall (7) -Javonte Williams (7) -Joe Mixon (6.6) -JD McKissic (6.3)
Mixon has managed at least three receptions in all three of his games this season, but he’s been targeted 20 times in the process. He’s the second-highest pass catcher in the Bengals’ offense behind Ja’Marr Chase.
Third, the Miami defense has shown vulnerability against pass-catching backs. The Dolphins are 27th in Pass Defense DVOA vs. running backs and have allowed a whopping 9.7 pass attempts per game to RBs.
We’re still not sure as of this writing if Tua Tagovailoa is going to play. He looked near-concussed last week against Buffalo and is currently questionable, according to reports.
If Tagovailoa doesn’t play, Chase Edmonds will see a ton of targets.
But if Tagovailoa does play, I still think Edmonds sees plenty of targets.
Edmonds only hit this mark in Week 1 before falling well short in Weeks 2 and 3. However, this is a great matchup for him.
Cincinnati allowed Tony Pollard to record 50 receiving yards in Week 2 and then allowed Breece Hall to pick up 53 in Week 3. The Bengals are allowing 8.3 pass attempts per game to running backs. The Bengals actually rank top-10 in Pass DVOA vs. running backs, likely meaning Zac Taylor is fine to allow passing yards out of the backfield if the overall approach is effective.
Plus, the defensive backs might be too concerned with the electric combination of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle (if he plays) to pay attention to the underneath routes. Tagovailoa will happily take those underneath routes, while backup Teddy Bridgewater might not be able to hit the deep shots.
If you’re looking for the biggest football betting edge on Thursday night, you may want to shift your focus away from Thursday Night Football between the Dolphins and the Bengals.
Instead, your attention may be better served with the under-the-radar game between BYU and Utah State.
This college football matchup isn’t going to be the popular viewing endeavor on Thursday night, but Action Network’s model projections are currently seeing a major edge with the game.
Read on to see where our projections see value ahead of the BYU vs. Utah State contest.
Utah State vs BYU College Football Projections
The Utah State vs. BYU total is extremely gettable, according to our model projections that list the expected total of this game at 55.
That is good for an 8.9% edge against the market consensus total of 60, an ‘A’ grade according to our projections.
As it currently stands, 82% of the betting tickets are on the under, so this is a popular play among bettors.
BYU is a very popular play against the spread tonight as well, but the consensus spread of 24 is not providing the same type of edge that the over/under is.
BetMGM bonus code ACTION50 will get new users $1,050 in value (an Action Network exclusive and the highest in the industry) for Bengals–Dolphins, or any other college football or NFL game this weekend.
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BetMGM is not offering new user-promos in New York, Pennsylvania, and Mississippi (the first two for tax/profitability reasons, and Mississippi because you have to sign-up and bet inside a casino).
Not sure how all these promos work? We’ll explain in more detail below.
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Risk-Free Bet Bonuses at BetMGM
Let’s first. dive into how the risk-free bet works, since you’ll want to place that before using the free bet.
If you win your first bet at BetMGM: You keep the stake and profits, which turns into real cash you can bet or withdraw.
If you lose your first bet at BetMGM: You’ll get your initial stake back in free bets.
So in order to get the $1,000 worth of value, you must deposit and wager $1,000 on your first bet.
OK, time for a real-life example of how this might go on Thursday Night Football.
Most bettors won’t deposit $1,000, so let’s say you put in $100 to use on Bengals-Dolphins.
You wager $100 on Bengals moneyline and under 44.5 parlayed together, which pays +240 at BetMGM.
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If it doesn’t hit — Bengals 34, Dolphins 20 let’s say — you’ll get $100 back in free bets.
Don’t worry, we’ll explain more about free bets below.
Enter accurate signup info (name, address, last four digits of SSN)
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One note — you must actually deposit money to claim these promos. At least $10.
If you don’t live in a state with online betting but are traveling to a different state, it’s perfectly legal to sign up and bet, as long as you’re within state lines.
Just enter your actual information and don’t use a fake address like your Airbnb address or friend’s address if they’re in a legal state and you’ don’t live there. You’re allowed to bet as long as you’re in the state.
How to Use Your BetMGM Free Bets
You’re probably wondering why we suggested so many plus-money wagers in our example above. That’s because the best way to use any free bets is on longshots.
The bigger the line, the more expected value you get over time. Things priced between +300 to +600 in tight markets, meaning the gap between the two sides isn’t too large, are the optimal way to go.
Here are some ways to use your promo bets for Thursday Night Football:
Sean Koerner lays out what number he would bet the Dolphins-Bengals total.
On Thursday afternoon, the Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs will conclude their three-game series at Wrigley Field. The matchup features one team fighting to make the playoffs and another that has long been thinking about next season. However, you may not be able to tell which team is which based on the first two games of this series.
The Cubs have taken the first two games by a final of 2-1 on Tuesday and 4-2 last night. The Cubs improved to 69-86 on the season and have won seven of their last 10 games.
For the Phillies, the loss was their four straight and seventh in their last 10 games. The Phillies are clinging to the third wild card spot in the NL and hold a half-game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers. Milwaukee hosts the Marlins on Thursday night, meaning the team will know it can move in front of Philadelphia should it slip up again. Will the Phillies bats step up and help the team maintain its playoff standing?
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Phillies Offense Gets Boost With Castellanos Return
The Phillies will send Ranger Suarez to the mound to snap its losing skid. The left-hander is 10-5 with a 3.38 ERA and has nearly been a 3-win pitcher, accumulating a 2.8 WAR. He has enjoyed pitching away from Citizen Banks Park as he is 6-1 with a 2.67 ERA in 14 road starts this season. He ranks in the 80 percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 85th percentile in Hard Hit Percentage.
Suarez being on the mound will give the Phillies a good chance to win. However, starting pitching has not been the problem of late. The team has scored just three runs in this series. It has also scored three runs or fewer in four of its last six games. Philadelphia is hitting just .216 with runners in scoring position in that span.
The Phillies have gotten a boost from getting Nick Castellanos back in the lineup. Before going down with an oblique injury, he was swinging a hot bat, and he is 4-for-7 in this series. Castellanos is now hitting .333 with five home runs, 14 runs batted in, and a .870 OPS.
Rhys Hoskins reached base four times last night in a 3-for-4 performance. He is hitting .345 with a home run, four runs batted in, and a 1.027 OPS over his last seven games.
However, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and JT Realmuto are all hitting .214 or below with just four home runs combined over the last seven games.
Philadelphia has not seen today’s Cubs starter before, but there is reason to believe it will have success against him.
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Cubs Rookie Assad Regressing?
Rookie Javier Assad has made just seven appearances (six starts) in the big leagues since his August call-up. Over his first five appearances, he allowed one run or fewer in four of them. He posted a 2.53 ERA in that span, but even then there were signs regression was coming. Assad had a 4.06 FIP and 1.40 WHIP in that span.
Assad allows a lot of traffic on the basepaths. He deserves credit for dancing out of danger, but eventually, it will lead to him getting burned. As a result, Assad has now allowed four runs in three of his last four starts.
He is now 1-2, and his ERA has ballooned to 4.28 on the year. Assad has a 36.5% Hard Hit Percentage and a 13.6% Walk Rate, which are both above the league average. He is also below average with an 18.4% Strikeout Percentage.
If Assad struggles again, his offense will need to pick up the slack. The Cubs have not seen much of Ranger Suarez, and of those who have faced him, only Alfonso Rivas has a hit against him. However, fellow rookie Christoper Morel has homered in back-to-back games, and he has six runs batted in over his last seven games. Nico Hoerner is hitting .360 over his last seven games, and Wilson Contreras has five home runs over his last 15 games, though he is hitting just .185 in that span.
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Phillies-Cubs Pick
Philadelphia’s offense has struggled of late, but it has the opportunity to break out against Assad. He has allowed four runs in three of his last four starts. He also has 17 walks in 27.1 innings and has surrendered two or more walks in five of his six starts. The Phillies are tied for the seventh most walks in the league over the last week.
As a result, I will be fading Assad and targeting Philadelphia’s team total. The Phillies should be able to put a lot of men on base against him. Even last night, the team had 11 hits.
The key will be capitalizing with runners in scoring position. Assad has failed to reach the fifth inning in either of his last two starts. Philadelphia could get five runs off of him early, but I like its chances against the Cubs bullpen as well.
