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World Cup: Can England Solve Sweden’s Stalwart Defense?

England vs. Sweden, 10 a.m. ET, Fox

  • England -112
  • Sweden +390
  • Draw +225

Bet to Watch:

England To Win By 1 Goal +246 

After England won only their second of eight major tournament penalty shootouts, and first at a World Cup, the English media are starting to believe that anything is possible. “Football’s coming home” as far as fans of the Three Lions  are concerned, but if their team is to lift the trophy for the first time in more than 50 years, there are a few roadblocks still to overcome.

Sweden are, without question, a favorable quarterfinal opponent, but that’s not to say Saturday’s match in Samara will be plain sailing for Gareth Southgate’s men. It never is as far as England are concerned, nor is it when they come to blows with this weekend’s challengers.

England have, after all, won just one of their last eight competitive meetings with the Swedes, who have developed a liking for what has become a familiar underdog status under coach Janne Andersson. Indeed, since exiting Euro 2016 and waving goodbye to their greatest-ever player in Zlatan Ibrahimovic, there has been a realization that without a star name to call upon, the players have needed to accept their limitations and, in a roundabout way, turn that into a strength.

The Scandinavians have shown this summer and well beforehand just how difficult they are to break down, simply by sticking to their rigid positions when out of possession and sitting deep. In the past 18 months, they’ve beaten Portugal, France and Italy, so they aren’t to be underestimated, keeping five clean sheets in their last six matches.

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It’s relatively clear how the pattern of this match will play out, with Sweden having had a lower possession share (36%) at this World Cup than any of the remaining teams. Plus, they’re well-aware that England are struggling to create meaningful chances from open play.

England have the tournament’s top scorer in their ranks, and Harry Kane will know that if he can add to his six-goal tally, he may well wrap up the Golden Boot. While there are those who will point to his duties as the penalty-kick taker as the main reason for his success this summer, he’s taken the chances that have come his way. Plus, his performance against Colombia was arguably the Tottenham star’s best all-around display of the tournament.

Sweden may have conceded only twice, but they have allowed their opponents the most shots on goal (61) of the quarterfinalists, and Kane doesn’t need a second invitation to shoot or indeed score. With odds over evens on the striker to do so at any time, that’s a bet that’s well worth considering, but I like the winning margin odds for England in this one.

It’s never straightforward when they are involved, after all, and Southgate’s charges are the only side remaining that are yet to keep a clean sheet. While their quality should win out, you can bank on a tight result, so England to win by exactly one goal would be my tip.

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College Football Betting Odds & Predictions: 3 Over/Unders for Bowl Season, Including Florida vs. Oregon State & More

college football-betting-odds-predictions-over/unders-bowl season-florida vs oregon state-washington state vs fresno state-western kentucky vs south alabama-2022

Welcome to bowl season, the best time of the year.

Navigating this season can be a bit challenging with all of the opt-outs, coaching changes and players hitting the transfer portal. I’m here to help sort through the mess and pick out the best totals for bowl games.

Here are the pace numbers as we stand heading into bowl season.

If you’re new to this piece, we’ll take an in-depth look at the totals market using yards per play, Success Rate, Finishing Drives, plays per minute, seconds per play and more.

Using those metrics, along with a look at the weather and key injuries, the goal is to hopefully help bettors beat the market.

Now, let’s jump right into bowl season.

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Fresno State vs. Washington State

Saturday, Dec. 17
3:30 p.m. ET
ABC
Fresno State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+2.5
-110
55.5
-110o / -110u
 +105
Washington State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-2.5
-110
55.5
-110o / -110u
 -126
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Washington State meets Mountain West champion Fresno State in the Jimmy Kimmel Los Angeles Bowl on Dec. 17.

Washington State had a roller coaster of a season but ended up with a 7-5 record, which is very fair because it’s simply an average college football team.

Cam Ward has been an electric dual-threat quarterback for Washington State, and the Cougars love to air it out by throwing the ball on 59.6% of their offensive snaps.

However, Ward’s overall numbers aren’t that impressive. He’s averaging just 6.6 yards per attempt and owns a 59.2 PFF passing grade with only 10 big-time throws compared to 17 turnover-worthy plays.

Washington State ranks 118th in passing explosiveness and 106th in EPA/Pass. It also struggles to score when crossing the opponent’s 40-yard line, ranking 91st in Offensive Finishing Drives.

It’ll be going up against a really good secondary, as Fresno State ranks 30th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and owns the 17th-best coverage grade, per PFF.

On the other side, Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener returned from injury in Week 9 against San Diego State and has been on fire. He has a 90.0 PFF passing grade, a 79.5% adjusted completion percentage and has averaged 8.2 yards per attempt.

Much like Ward, Haener will also face a solid secondary in this game, as Washington State sits 39th in Passing Success Rate Allowed.

Fresno State hasn’t really been that effective running the ball. It ranks 25th in Rushing Success Rate but 125th in rushing explosiveness, which is why it’s averaging just 3.7 yards per carry.

Washington State is top-35 in rushing explosiveness allowed, Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate. It also owns the seventh-best tackling grade, per PFF.

Wazzu plays at a fast pace, running a play every 23.94 seconds, which is 32nd in the nation. However, despite that fast pace, the under has gone 9-3 in Cougar games this season. Fresno State loves to slow the pace down, running a play every 26.64 seconds, which is 92nd in the nation.

I only have 49.7 points projected for this game, so I like the value on under 57.5.

Pick: Under 57.5

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Florida vs. Oregon State

Saturday, Dec. 17
7:30 p.m. ET
ESPN
Florida Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+4.5
-110
54.5
-110o / -110u
 +142
Oregon State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-4.5
-110
54.5
-110o / -110u
 -172
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Florida and Oregon State meet in Sin City for the Las Vegas Bowl on Dec. 17.

Florida had a disappointing first season under Billy Napier, going 6-6 and losing its final two games of the season to Vanderbilt and Florida State. The Gators have already had six players hit the portal, and it’s up in the air whether or not Anthony Richardson is going to opt out of this game.

Even if Richardson decides to play in this game, the Florida offense has been the definition of boom or bust. The Gators lead in the country in explosiveness but rank just 71st in Success Rate.

Richardson has been brutal as a passer this season, owning a 70.1 PFF passing grade to go with a 63.9% adjusted completion percentage. He’s had no time to throw, as he’s under pressure on 37.6% of his dropbacks. When throwing from a crowded pocket, he has a 41.9 PFF passing grade with six turnover-worthy plays.

Meanwhile, Oregon State has an outstanding secondary that ranks 14th in passing explosiveness allowed and 10th in EPA/Pass Allowed.

Florida is unsurprisingly No. 1 in the country in explosive rushing but again ranks just 65th in Rushing Success Rate. The Gators are also 75th in Finishing Drives and 115th in Havoc Allowed, so if Florida can’t break off big plays, things can easily fall apart.

Oregon State is an extremely rush-heavy offense, with the Beavers carrying the rock on 61.3% of their offensive plays.

They’ve run the ball successfully, ranking 12th in Rushing Success Rate and Offensive Line Yards. Florida has been terrible against the run this season, ranking outside the top 90 in both of those categories.

However, Ben Gulbranson really hasn’t been effective at quarterback, as he’s averaging just 7.3 yards per attempt. He owns a 60.3 PFF passing grade to go along with four big-time throws and seven turnover-worthy plays, so Oregon State is going to have to lean on its run game once again.

Florida plays a pretty slow pace at 26.09 seconds per play, which is 78th in the nation. Oregon State plays even slower at 29.95 seconds per play, which puts it at 127th.

I only have 48.9 points projected for this game, so I like the value on under 54.5 points — and it could look even better if Richardson opts out.

Pick: Under 54.5

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South Alabama vs. Western Kentucky

Wednesday, Dec. 21
9 p.m. ET
ESPN
South Alabama Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-3.5
-115
61.5
-105o / -115u
 N/A
Western Kentucky Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+3.5
-105
61.5
-105o / -115u
 N/A
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

I get it — when you see Western Kentucky, your first thought is automatically to take the over. But the Hilltoppers actually haven’t been a big over team this season. In fact, six of their last eight games of the season have gone under the total.

A lot of that has to do with the fact that their offense just isn’t close to what it was with Baliey Zappe under center last year.

Austin Reed has been an average quarterback for the Hilltoppers, as he’s averaging just 7.7 yards per attempt to go along with a PFF passing grade of only 75.8 and 24 turnover-worthy plays.

South Alabama has an outstanding secondary that allowed only 6.4 yards per attempt while ranking 13th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 27th in EPA/Pass Allowed.

Western Kentucky throws the ball on 60.5% of its offensive plays, so if Reed is struggling, the offense is struggling.

When WKU does run the ball, it’s averaging 5.0 yards per attempt. However, it ranks 74th in Rushing Success Rate and 48th in EPA/Rush. South Alabama has an incredibly stout front seven that’s 31st in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 24th in EPA/Rush Allowed.

Western Kentucky also ranks 85th in Finishing Drives, while South Alabama is 15th in Finishing Drives Allowed.

South Alabama has been pretty solid on offense this season, ranking 23rd in EPA/Play. A lot of that has to do with quarterback Carter Bradley, who has a 77.9 PFF passing grade with 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. That has the Jaguars ranking  27th in Passing Success Rate and 23rd in EPA/Pass.

However, they’re going up against a really good Western Kentucky secondary that’s allowing only 6.5 yards per attempt and ranks eighth in passing explosiveness allowed and 12th in EPA/Pass Allowed.

The Jaguars haven’t been very effective running the ball, ranking 63rd in EPA/Rush, 109th in Rushing Success Rate and 69th in Offensive Line Yards. So, they won’t be able to exploit Western Kentucky’s weakness on defense.

South Alabama’s offensive line is also 89th in pass blocking and 99th in run blocking grade, per PFF.

While Western Kentucky likes to play fast and runs a play every 23.14 seconds (18th in FBS), South Alabama likes to play slower and runs a play every 26.18 seconds (81st).

I only have 51.7 points projected for this game, so I think there’s a ton of value on under 64.5 points.

Pick: Under 64.5

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NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Canadiens vs. Canucks (December 5)

nhl odds-preview-prediction-canadiens vs canucks-december 5

Canadiens vs. Canucks Odds

Canadiens Odds +176
Canucks Odds -220
Over/Under 6.5
Time 10:30 p.m. ET
TV SNP
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

Despite holding a better record at 12-11-1 and playing out of the NHL’s toughest division, the Montreal Canadiens enter as heavy underdogs tonight in a matchup versus the underachieving Vancouver Canucks.

Vancouver has stabilized after a nightmare start, but is still skating with some real concerns on the blue-line, which have consistently been exposed by deeper sides.

Are the Canadiens a live underdog at +170?

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Canadiens Not As Good As Record?

Montreal’s 12-11-1 record in an extremely competitive Atlantic division is certainly a positive comment towards coach Martin St. Louis and the consistent level of his young side.

However, it has been clear on a number of nights of late that Montreal stole results it did not deserve. And as happens every year, we see teams simply commended for the randomness of the opposition.

A strong example of being fooled by this randomness was Montreal’s shocking 2-1 win versus Calgary.

Montreal was applauded greatly for the win in which it scored an ugly goal a minute in and a clutch late powerplay marker. But otherwise, it was completely dominated. The difference was truly just the Flames not finishing looks that it should have.

Montreal has seen spectacular performances from Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and even Sean Monahan, but otherwise, it offers little in the way of strong NHL talent.

Over Montreal’s last 10 games, it owns the second-worst expected goals rating % in the league at 40.84,  which has been largely hidden by its modest 5-5-0 record.

The average team faced throughout that sample currently resides at 21.6th place on average, which makes it an even greater concern that Montreal has been heavily outplayed throughout that sample.

Spectacular goaltending from Jake Allen and Sam Montembeault continues to hide shaky defensive play. Over the last 10, Montreal has allowed a league-worst xGA/60 of 3.96 and is due for more nights like we saw last time out in Edmonton (5-3 loss) moving forward.

My expectation is that Montembeault sneaks in a start on Monday — since he has not played yet on this Western road swing and since Allen had a tough night Saturday. Confirmation towards that will come after the morning skate, though.

Montembeault has played to a +6.3 goals saved above expected rating (GSAx) and .924 save % in eight games this season.

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Canucks Looking Better Than Opposition?

The Vancouver Canucks have stabilized greatly after a disastrous 0-5-2 start to the campaign, and really all the team had to do was avoid collapsing a multi-goal lead every night.

The Canucks enter this contest in the midst of a 6-3-0 tear and have beaten some elite sides during this run, such as the Golden Knights and Avalanche.

Vancouver’s underlying numbers have not been overly impressive throughout that sample, but a 48.21% expected goals rating is considerably sharper than what Montreal is doing of late.

The Canucks are skating a number of capable offensive scorers on each of their top three lines and should be more likely to outscore their expected mark moving forward this season than Montreal.

Elias Pettersson, Andrei Kuzmenko and Ilya Mikheyev have gelled effectively on the Canucks’ second unit and offer a formidable challenge for a Canadiens side not skating a true shutdown defensive pairing.

With the unfortunate injury to Thatcher Demko, we should see Spencer Martin draw the start for tonight’s contest.

Martin has been the sharper of Vancouver’s goaltenders and enters this contest with a -0.3 GSAx and .901 save % in 11 appearances.

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Canadiens vs. Canucks Pick

The greatest reason Montreal sits above Vancouver in the standings is that its goaltending tandem has performed very well. Meanwhile, the Canucks have gotten poor results from Demko.

Tonight, we know Martin will take the net for Vancouver, and although statistically he has not been as spectacular as Montembeault this season, I project the two to achieve similar results moving forward.

Montreal receiving some of the best goaltending in the league is not a narrative I want to put stock into moving forward, and analytically, the Canadiens have outperformed expectations by a decent margin.

Montreal has been mainly getting outplayed badly by notably weak sides over its last stretch of play, while Vancouver has hung around respectably versus a number of elite teams.

Oddsmakers realize the disparity and are still pricing the Canucks as heavy favorites, but I still see value backing the Canucks in a number of ways in this contest.

Vancouver’s deep offensive core should be able to generate effectively tonight, and there are two angles in which I see betting value on in this contest.

FanDuel offers +150 for the Canucks to win inside of regulation and for the game total to go over 5.5, and that’s an angle I love considering the strengths and deficiencies of this Vancouver side.

Petterson, Kuzmenko and Mikheyev have absolutely dominated at even strength as a unit and are in an excellent matchup to thrive tonight.

Each is an option for almost any prop on the board. And if you’re using a bookmaker with single-game NHL parlays, compiling a long-shot bet involving a big night from the three is another angle to have fun with.

My favorite widely available prop from the trio is backing Kuzmenko to record a single point, which can be had at -130 on most sportsbooks.

Pick: Vancouver Regulation Win + 60 Minutes Parlay +150 | Andrei Kuzmenko Point -130

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5 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for Saints vs. Bucs on Monday Night Football, Including Tom Brady, Taysom Hill, Jarvis Landry

5-most-valuable-nfl-player-prop-bets-for-saints-vs-bucs-on-monday-night-football-including-tom-brady-taysom-hill-jarvis-landry

The five most valuable props for Monday Night Football’s Saints vs. Bucs target Tom Brady, Taysom Hill and Jarvis Landry, according to our director of analytics Sean Koerner’s projections.

The other two players on this most valuable list are probably flying underneath your radar.

We wrote earlier on Monday about the valuable spread pick for this contest, which fades teams based on sharp action.

Our algorithms laboriously factor in matchups, weather, scheme and other mechanisms to best deduce which props across the marketplace provide positive expected value.

View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!

5 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for Saints vs. Bucs on Monday Night Football

  1. Tom Brady under 40.5 pass attempts -115 (DraftKings)
  2. Adam Trautman over 2.5 receptions +114 (FanDuel)
  3. Jarvis Landry under 3.5 receptions +105 (DraftKings)
  4. Taysom Hill over 25.5 rushing yards -115 (DraftKings)
  5. Rashid Shaheed over 1.5 receptions +130 (DraftKings)

*Odds and data are as of Monday morning. These are the market’s most valuable prices.

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The most valuable prop for Monday Night Football’s Saints vs. Bucs is on Tom Brady to throw for 40 passes or fewer.

Our models expect Brady to throw for about 37.5 times on Monday night. That gives the bet a roughly 16% betting edge.

Essentially, you’re getting a 16% discount on the true price of that prop bet, according to our algorithms.

Saints tight end Adam Trautman has the second-most valuable prop for Monday Night Football.

While he’s projected to have about 3.1 receptions tonight, according to Koerner’s models, the best line on the market gives up o2.5 with a vig of +114.

In fact, the rest of the props go to Saints skill position players. Landry’s under on receptions has a roughly 11% betting edge. The former LSU wideout is expected to net closer to three receptions on Monday night.

And Taysom Hill is expected to have 34 rushing yards tonight, on average. The best line on the market for the Saints gadget weapon is o25.5 (-115).

Undrafted rookie wide receiver Rashid Shaheed has the fifth-most valuable player prop tonight. The Saints wideout is projected to have closer to two receptions. His odds in the market give him plus-money vig.

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NFL Player Props: Expert Betting Rashid Shaheed Pick for Saints vs Buccaneers

buccaneers vs saints-player props-rashid shaheed-jarvis landry

Follow Sean Koerner in the Action App to get all his betting picks.

Rashid Shaheed Longest Reception

Prop Rashid Shaheed Longest Reception Over 9.5 Yards
Matchup Saints vs. Buccaneers
Day, Time Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Best Book bet365

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Shaheed is the Saints‘ kick and punt returner, and he’s explosive with the ball in his hands.

It took until Week 6 for New Orleans to get him involved in the offense. Since then, he has cleared this prop in four of six games.

More importantly, Shaheed has seen his playing time increase significantly over the last two weeks. He’s averaging a 68% routes run rate during that span, making him the Saints’ No. 2 receiver behind Chris Olave. Shaheed went for two catches and 53 receiving yards against the 49ers last week, so he’s done nothing to warrant less playing time.

Based on his underlying usage, I’m projecting Shaheed for right around 1.6 catches on 2.8 targets.

He’s more of an explosive/deep threat, so five of his eight receptions have cleared 9.5 yards this season.

  • Zero receptions: 20% chance = we lose this bet
  • One reception: 32% chance, which means we have around a 60-62% chance of him clearing this based on his limited sample size.
  • Two receptions: 26% chance, which means we have around a 80-85% chance of him clearing this based on his limited sample size
  • Three or more receptions: 22% chance, which means it’s hard to imagine him not clearing this at this point

Here are the other markets for him:

  • 1.5 receptions over +115/ under -150
  • 13.5 rec yards over -115/ under -115

I think the market is underestimating Shaheed’s chances of getting two or more receptions here, but the best way to invest in this is for his longest reception to be over 9.5 yards. I give this prop around a 60-62% chance of cashing.

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UFC 282: Updated Betting Lines for Błachowicz vs. Ankalaev, Pimblett vs. Gordon (Saturday, Dec. 10)

UFC 282: Błachowicz vs. Ankalaev, the UFC’s final pay-per-view event of 2022, takes this Saturday, Dec. 10, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

With light heavyweight champion Jiri Prochazka injured and out of a planned title defense with Glover Teixeira, the new headliner features ex-champ Jan Błachowicz vs. Magomed Ankalaev for the vacant belt.

In the co-headliner, England’s fast-rising star Paddy Pimblett meets veteran lightweight Jared Gordon in his highest-profile bout yet.

In all, UFC 282 features 14 bouts in all, with early prelims on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass (6 p.m. ET) and the main prelims on ESPN2 and ESPN+ (8 p.m. ET).

You can check out the full list of UFC 282 odds via Caesars for all of the fights on Saturday’s lineup below.

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UFC 282 Odds

Early Preliminary Card

  • 6 p.m. ET
  • ESPN+

Cameron Saaiman vs. Steven Koslow

Bantamweight Bout Odds
Saaiman Odds -270
Steven Odds +220
Over/under rounds TBA

Vinicius Salvador vs. Daniel da Silva

Flyweight Bout Odds
Salvador Odds -210
da Silva Odds +175
Over/under rounds TBA

T.J. Brown vs. Erik Silva

Featherweight Bout Odds
Brown Odds -105
Silva Odds -115
Over/under rounds TBA

Ovince Saint Preux vs. Antonio Trocoli

Light Heavyweight Bout Odds
Saint Preux Odds -110
Trocoli Odds -110
Over/under rounds TBA

Billy Quarantillo vs. Alexander Hernandez

Featherweight Bout Odds
Quarantillo Odds -160
Hernandez Odds +135
Over/under rounds TBA

Preliminary Card

  • 8 p.m. ET
  • ESPN2

Chris Curtis vs. Joaquin Buckley

Middleweight Bout Odds
Curtis Odds +125
Buckley Odds -150
Over/under rounds TBA

Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Dalcha Lungiambula

Middleweight Bout Odds
Shahbazyan Odds -310
Lungiambula Odds +250
Over/under rounds TBA

Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Jay Perrin

Middleweight Bout Odds
Rosas Jr. Odds -230
Perrin Odds +190
Over/under rounds TBA

Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Chris Daukaus

Heavyweight Bout Odds
Rozenstruik Odds -170
Daukaus Odds +145
Over/under rounds TBA

Main Card

  • 10 p.m. ET
  • Pay-per-view

Bryce Mitchell vs. Ilia Topuria

Featherweight Bout Odds
Mitchell Odds +125
Topuria Odds -150
Over/under rounds TBA

Darren Till vs. Dricus du Plessis

Middleweight Bout Odds
Till Odds +145
du Plessis Odds -170
Over/under rounds TBA

Robbie Lawler vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio

Welterweight Bout Odds
Lawler Odds +310
Ponzinibbio Odds -400
Over/under rounds TBA

Paddy Pimblett vs. Jared Gordon

Lightweight Bout Odds
Pimblett Odds -240
Gordon Odds +200
Over/under rounds TBA

Jan Błachowicz vs. Magomed Ankalaev

Light Heavyweight Bout Odds
Błachowicz Odds +210
Ankalaev Odds -260
Over/under rounds TBA

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Saints vs Buccaneers Odds, Pick, Prediction: Monday Night Football

saints vs buccaneers-odds-pick-prediction-monday night football

Saints vs. Buccaneers Odds

Monday, Dec. 5
8:15 p.m. ET
ESPN
Saints Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+3
-112
41.5
-106o / -114u
 +138
Buccaneers Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-3
-108
41.5
-106o / -114u
 -164
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Tom Brady, as a member of the Buccaneers, was just 1-4 against the Saints before notching a 20-10 victory over New Orleans in Week 2.

Should we back Brady with our Saints vs. Buccaneers pick, expecting a similar result this time around or will New Orleans recapture its form of seasons past against Brady?

Let’s make a Monday Night Football prediction.

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Saints vs. Buccaneers Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Saints and Buccaneers match up statistically:

Saints vs. Buccaneers DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 24 7
Pass DVOA 24 6
Rush DVOA 13 14
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 17 15
Pass DVOA 10 12
Rush DVOA 31 21

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Nothing is coming easy for the Bucs offense these days. Their offensive line can’t generate any push in the run game, resulting in a league-worst 3.3 yards per carry. The Saints run defense has been up and down this season, but held the Tampa Bay offense to 72 yards on 30 carries in Week 2, and it should be able to hold the Bucs ground game in check once again.

Brady trusts the line less than ever, which is evidenced by his average depth of target (aDOT) and average time to throw (TTT) sinking to their lowest levels since he joined the Bucs:

  • 2020: 9.8 aDOT, 2.41 TTT
  • 2021: 8.2 aDOT, 2.33 TTT
  • 2022: 7.7 aDOT, 2.28 TTT

That figures to be even more pronounced with right tackle Tristan Wirfs (ankle) out of the lineup. The Saints rank 12th in DVOA against the pass and are giving up the fourth-lowest rate of 20-plus-yard passes (10.0%), so the Bucs offense could be a tough watch in this one.  Tampa Bay is 23rd in third-down conversion rate (38.0%) and 25th in red zone touchdown conversion rate (50.0%).

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Saints +3.5

Buccaneers -3.5

The Saints offense has been sputtering of late and has failed to top 13 points in three of its past four games. One of the biggest issues is that defenses have seen enough tape of Taysom Hill and can no longer be caught off guard by his packages. Hill has recorded just 72 scoreless rushing yards on 19 carries over his past four games, and his five passing plays over that span have averaged just 5.4 yards per attempt. He’s also been a non-factor as a receiver for the entire season, amassing just 31 yards and a touchdown on 80 routes.

Another big issue is the offensive line has struggled to generate any push for Alvin Kamara, who hasn’t topped 3.5 yards per carry since Week 7. The Bucs run defense hasn’t been as elite as in years past, but is up to 14th in DVOA and has allowed just 148 yards on 41 carries (3.6 YPC) over the past two games.

Andy Dalton has been serviceable for the Saints, but the Bucs’ sixth-ranked pass defense in DVOA represents the toughest matchup he has faced all season. In four games against above-average pass defenses (Bengals, Ravens, Steelers, 49ers), Dalton is averaging just 187.5 yards passing and has thrown three touchdowns and three interceptions. The Saints have averaged just 12.3 points per game in those contests.

Chris Olave has had an excellent rookie year, but hasn’t been a factor in the red zone and has just three touchdowns on 92 targets this season. Dalton will not have the services of Juwan Johnson (ankle), who leads the team with five touchdown catches.

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Betting Picks

Both offenses figure to struggle, so this is a good spot for the under. Six of the Bucs past seven games have failed to top 40 points, and four of the Saints past five games have failed to top 40.

Per our Action Labs data, the under is 27-18-1 (60%) since 2010 when the visiting team is coming off a shutout. The Saints got blanked 13-0 by the 49ers last week.

And outdoor divisional unders are 25-11-1 (69%) this season and 61-38-1 (62%) since the start of last season.

Pick: Under 41.5 | Bet to 40

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Buccaneers vs Saints Player Props: Monday Night Picks on Rashid Shaheed, Jarvis Landry

buccaneers vs saints-player props-rashid shaheed-jarvis landry

This week on Monday Night Football, we’re fading on Saints receiver who’s getting more involved in the offense and fading a veteran in the slot.

I make these picks using Sean Koerner’s projections on Action Labs. Let’s dive in and find out Saints vs. Buccaneers player props.

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Rashid Shaheed
Over 1.5 Receptions (+130, DraftKings)

Gilles Gallant is on Shaheed to score a touchdown this week at a massive +800 number. We’re going to bet him at a slightly lower plus number, but one that shows good value given his involvement in the offense.

Shaheed has cleared this number only twice this season, although one of those was last week against the 49ers.

After not playing more than 23% of snaps in his first five games of the season, Shaheed has been on the field for 49% and 53% of the Saints’ offensive plays over the last two weeks. He’s a big-play threat, something New Orleans has lacked this season.

Shaheed has seen a combined five targets over the last two weeks, including three against the 49ers last week that led to two catches for 53 yards. This week, it’s unlikely New Orleans is shut out again, which should lead for more offensive production to potentially go to a playmaker.

Shaheed is projected for 1.9 receptions, so getting +130 on over 1.5 receptions makes this an easy pick to make to close Week 13.

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Jarvis Landry
Under 3.5 Receptions (+105) & 40.5 Receiving Yards (-115, both at BetMGM)

Action Labs likes both the reception and yardage under on Landry this week. He’s projected for 3.2 catches and 32.1 receiving yards compared to lines of 3.5 catches and 40.5 receiving yards.

I wouldn’t blame you for betting both. While Shaheed has seen his snaps go up of late, Landry has been a part-time receiver over the last two weeks.

The veteran slot receiver missed Weeks 5-9 due to injury, and he played 79% of snaps upon returning in Week 10. In Weeks 11 and 12, though, he played 56% of Saints offensive plays.

In all three of his games since returning from injury, Landry has gone under both of those totals every time, with receiving lines of 3-37-0, 3-33-1 and 2-20-0.

The best numbers on both Landry totals can be found at BetMGM, but be sure to use Action Labs.

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Morocco vs Spain Odds, Pick: Prop Market Has Value in World Cup Match

Morocco vs. Spain Odds

Tuesday, Dec. 6
10 a.m. ET
FOX
Morocco Odds +550
Spain Odds -167
Draw +275
Over/Under 2.5 (+120 / -150)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) (+120 / -163)
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here.

Morocco and Spain meet on Tuesday in a rematch of a 2018 group stage fixture that otherwise has surprisingly little history for two nations in such close proximity.

That 2-2 draw on the final day of group play four years ago was only the teams’ third meeting all time. It might apply even less to this rematch than you think. While many of Morocco’s current squad featured in that game, only four of the 14 Spain players who took part that day are in the squad now.

In a condensed World Cup schedule, this is one of only two round of 16 games where each team will be on five days of rest coming in. That will be welcomed by Morocco, who have seen 11 players play 180 minutes or more in the group stage to Spain’s seven.

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Morocco Relatively Consistent For International Side

Morocco opened the tournament with a scoreless draw against Croatia that suggested neither side might be long for the tournament.

In hindsight, both teams’ willingness to settle for a point and avoid digging an early hole proved wise. In Morocco’s case, it provided the confidence to pull off one of the most famous results in their history, defeating Belgium 2-0 on matchday two.  Romain Saiss and Zakaria Aboukhal scored the goals, which both came after the 70th minute.

Then they struck early against Canada, with Chelsea star Hakim Zayech scoring on four minutes and Youssef En-Nesyri adding his first of the tournament 19 minutes later. The latter goal may be especially heartening for the North Africans, given En-Nesyri hadn’t scored for Sevilla in La Liga this season.

In an African international soccer landscape that can see extremely conservative matches, Morocco has been the continent’s most consistent attacking team of late.

25 goals scored in their World Cup Qualifying effort was second behind Algeria. Their 1.5 goals scored per 90 minutes was second behind Cameroon at the 2022 African Cup of Nations, and their eight total goals tied for third despite exiting at the quarterfinal stage.

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Spain Are a High Variance Team

It’s difficult to know exactly what to make of Spain’s group stage performance.

La Furia Roja destroyed Costa Rica 7-0 with surgical precision, but the Central Americans’ low block was always going to be vulnerable once the Spaniards and their patient passing game got an early goal.

In a 1-1 draw with Germany and a 2-1 upset defeat to Japan, the weaknesses of Spain’s ball dominance resurfaced. An average of 73% possession between those games translated into just 1.6 xG created.

In the small window of group play, the Costa Rica match may feel like the outlier. However, expand the frame to include all of 2021 and 2022 and you’ll see a clear pattern of mostly underwhelming offensive performances combined with the occasional explosion.

Spain have scored exactly one goal in 13-of-23 competitive fixtures over that span. They’ve also scored three or more goals five times.

Alvaro Morata is the only Spanish player with a goal in the tournament outside of their 7-0 romp over Costa Rica, striking once in all three group games. Ferran Torres added a brace against the Ticos.

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Morocco vs. Spain Pick

The odds here reflect Spain’s overall pedigree and recent run to the Euro 2020 semifinals. If you were basing odds on the teams’ respective performances in Qatar, the favorite wouldn’t change, but the price would come down a lot.

Given all the chalk we saw in the first two days of the knockout phase, you might be tempted to hold your nose and back Spain anyway. You shouldn’t – at least not blindly.

Groups A through D were the chalkier groups in this tournament. It’s not surprising that the knockout phase involving those teams would carry on the same way.

And yes, Spain may have the pedigree, but their squad lacks the experience edge that typically comes with pedigree and often makes an outsized difference in short tournaments.

Given all that, you have to find a way to back Morocco in some form here. For me, the best value is on the North Africans holding Spain to a single goal at +185 odds and an implied 35.1% probability.

It’s a bet that has paid off in more than half of Spain’s competitive fixtures since the start of 2021, including four wins and 2-of-3 group matches at this World Cup.

You could also go more conservatively, playing the Asian handicap somewhere between Morocco +1 and +1.5.

The Pick: Spain to score 1 goal (+185)

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IUPUI vs. Green Bay Odds, Pick, Prediction: Monday’s Random College Basketball Sharp Action Alert!

college basketball odds picks-predictions-iupui-vs-green-bay-monday-december-5

IUPUI vs. Green Bay Odds

IUPUI Odds +6.5
Green Bay Odds -6.5
Over/Under 125.5
Date Monday, Dec. 5
Time 12 p.m. ET
Channel ESPN+

*Odds as of Monday morning

Monday’s sports schedule seems abnormally slow.

Sure, there are two World Cup Round of 16 matchups today, as well as Saints vs. Buccaneers on Monday Night Football, but most of the afternoon is noticeably quiet, especially when it comes to college basketball.

There’s just one college basketball matinee on Monday, IUPUI vs. Green Bay at noon ET, before a handful of evening games get going at 7 p.m. ET.

Many casual bettors will be tied up with work and other responsibilities at noon on a Monday, and it’s not exactly like a matchup between two teams that have combined for a single win thus far this season is all that interesting anyway.

However, this is still a game with odds, and with odds is the potential for value.

So using the Action Network’s college basketball picks and predictions, let’s look at the smartest way to bet IUPUI vs. Green Bay on Monday afternoon.

IUPUI vs. Green Bay Pick

While the action hasn’t been huge thus far, the Action Network’s college basketball tools have picked up on smart money forcing the hands of oddsmakers.

The IUPUI vs. Green Bay spread opened at Phoenix -5.5, and despite being winless on the season, wiseguys took a bite out of the favorites at that price.

Action Labs’ Bet Signals show steam hitting Green Bay shortly after this spread opened, kicking the line up to a consensus of -6.5 across the market (click here for live college basketball odds).

It’s not like this spread is getting bombarded, but there are signs of smart money lining up on Green Bay today.

Pick: Green Bay -6.5

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Note: You can place a $10 bet on any NFL game and get $200 if a touchdown is scored by either team. This game is being used as an example.

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2022 QBE Shootout Odds & Preview: Jason Day & Billy Horschel Favored at Tiburon Golf Club

QBE Shootout Odds

Odds via bet365.

Players Odds
Day/Horschel +450
Hoge/Theegala +550
Homa/Kisner +700
English/Kuchar +700
Conners/Lee +700
Harman/Straka +700
Mitchell/Spaun +900
Stricker/Young +1000
Mullinax/Stallings +1400
Hoffman/Palmer +1800
Korda/McCarthy +4000
McNealy/Thompson +4000
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The PGA TOUR heads to Naples, Florida for the 2022 QBE Shootout. This is a post-season event and the 34th playing of the historic QBE Shootout as 10 two-player teams will combine for three rounds in this exhibition at Tiburón Golf Club at the Ritz-Carlton Golf Resort.

For the first time in the event’s history, two LPGA players will compete alongside PGA TOUR players as World No. 1 Nelly Korda will team up with Denny McCarthy, and World No. 7 Lexi Thompson pairs with Maverick McNealy. Ten of the top 50 male golfers in the world will be competing in Naples this week, highlighted Max Homa, who is 16th in the Official World Golf Rankings.

The three rounds in this tournament feature different formats each day with a Scramble in the first round on Friday, Modified Alternate Shot in the second round on Saturday and Four-Ball in the final round on Sunday.

Jason Day and Billy Horschel, who are pairing together in this event for the first time, are favored to win at bet365 at +450. Tom Hoge and Sahith Theegala are next at +550 while four teams have odds at +700.

Via Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Matt Kuchar of the United States and Harris English of the United States celebrates with the trophy after winning during the final round of the QBE Shootout at Tiburon Golf Club on December 13, 2020 in Naples, Florida.

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Course Preview

Tiburón Golf Club (Gold) was designed by Greg Norman and is a par 72 that plays at approximately 7,382 yards. Players will need to navigate a course with a natural Southwest Florida setting that features a mix of stacked sod-wall bunkers and tricky coquina waste bunkers.

The property is certified as an Audubon Cooperative Sanctuary as it exhibits a strong commitment to improving and protecting the natural resources in the area.

Past Winners

The winners of this event have combined to score at least 30-under par in each of the last four QBE shootouts, with Jason Kokrak and Kevin Na (-33) teaming up to win last year by one stroke over Sam Burns and Billy Horschel (-32).

Past champions in the field include three-time winners Harris English and Matt Kuchar (2013, 2016, 2020), two-time winner Steve Stricker (2009, 2017), Jason Day (2014) and Brian Harman (2018).

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NBA First Basket Prop Odds & Picks: Bet Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela in Thunder vs. Hawks (December 5)

NBA First Basket will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day here, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

Thunder vs.

Hawks

First Basket Prop Odds & Picks: Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela

Odds Murray (+475) | Capela (+650)
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
Book
 DraftKings | FanDuel

The Oklahoma City Thunder are in the Peach state Monday facing the Atlanta Hawks. Aleksej Pokusevski (28% opening-tip win rate) will be jumping at center against Clint Capela (43% win rate). The two centers have never faced off against each other, but I like Capela to control the tip.

Despite the lack of tip-offs won, the Hawks have been great at scoring first  this season with a 65% success rate (second-highest mark in the league). The Thunder have been less successful this season, scoring first in just 43% of games.

Atlanta will be without John Collins and De’Andre Hunter for this one as they are both injured. Rookies AJ Griffin and Jalen Johnson are likely to move into the starting lineup as replacements.

For Atlanta, Trae Young and Dejounte Murray have led the way in early possessions this season, with each player scoring the first team field goal in about 25% of games. Collins has taken the first shot in six of their last 10 games, but as mentioned above, he is out tonight.

OKC has given up the first team field goal to the opposing center, power forward or shooting guard in 78% of games this season. I’m going to discount the power forward option with the rookie Johnson starting for Atlanta tonight and go with Dejounte Murray (DraftKings) and Clint Capela (FanDuel).

The Pick: Dejounte Murray (+475 Risk 0.6 units, play down to +375) | Clint Capela (+650 Risk 0.4 units, play down to +500)

Thunder vs. Hawks First Basket Prop Data

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Saints vs Buccaneers Player Props: Anytime Touchdown Picks for Chris Godwin, Adam Trautman, More

saints vs buccaneers-player props-monday night football-chris godwin-adam trautman-rashid shaheed

Follow Gilles Gallant in the Action App to get all his picks during the NFL season, ranging from Anytime Touchdowns to exotics props and more.

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Chris Godwin
ATD +180 (FanDuel)

I’m going with the most consistent Buccaneers wide receiver tonight.

Godwin has at least 10 targets in six of his nine games this season. Tonight, he’s going for a third straight game with a touchdown against a Saints defense that has given up 11 touchdowns to wide receivers this season.

Marshon Lattimore is expected to return for New Orleans. He’s more likely to line up on the outside against Mike Evans, who has struggled against the Saints’ top corner in the past.

Godwin hasn’t been above +150 all season, so there’s no passing on this.

Pick: Chris Godwin Anytime Touchdown Scorer +180

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Adam Trautman
ATD +550 (0.5 unit, bet365)

Rashid Shaheed
ATD +800 (0.5 unit, FanDuel)

On the Saints side, we’re going to throw some darts.

Team touchdown leader Juwan Johnson has been ruled out, which means Trautman is the next man up at tight end. Trautman has actually played 15% more snaps than Johnson over the last three games.

The Buccaneers also rank in the bottom five in the NFL in terms of touchdowns, receptions and receiving yards allowed to tight ends this season.

As for Shaheed, I’m taking a chance on a playmaker who is arguably the Saints’ best deep threat. He has shown that with long rushing and receiving touchdowns this season.

No one on this offense is necessarily consistent, so we might as well take a swing on Shaheed at this number.

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College Basketball Odds, Picks: Three Man Weave’s 3 Best Bets for Monday’s Slate (Dec. 5)

college basketball odds-picks-three-man-weaves-3-best-bets-for-mondays-slate-dec 5

While Monday’s college basketball slate is thin (12 total games and no true marquee matchups), that doesn’t mean there isn’t value to be had from a betting perspective.

In fact, Jim Root of Three Man Weave is here to provide you with three best bets, including games that feature Gonzaga and San Diego State.

So, with that in mind, let’s jump right into it.

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Monday’s Three Man Weave College Basketball Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Jim is targeting from Monday’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game
Time
Pick
7 p.m. ET
Kennesaw State -4.5
9 p.m. ET
Kent State +16
10 p.m. ET
San Diego State -15.5
Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Kennesaw State vs. Charleston Southern

Monday, Dec. 5
7 p.m. ET
ESPN+
Kennesaw State -4.5

By Jim Root

When Kennesaw State hired Amir Abdur-Rahim, it hoped he could bring about a new era. In 14 Division I seasons prior to his hiring, the Owls had never had a winning record — overall or in league play. Their highest KenPom finish was 252nd in 2017.

That new era appears to be arriving.

Abdur-Rahim quickly added talent, highlighted by a 2020 recruiting class that featured multiple high-major targets in Chris Youngblood and Brandon Stroud.

A young group started to mesh last season — finishing 13-18 overall and 7-9 in ASUN play — and those Owls ascended to a previously-unimaginable 223rd in KenPom.

This looks like the true breakthrough year, as the Owls are off to a 5-3 start and sit 211th in those same Pomeroy rankings.

Youngblood, Stroud and point guard Terrell Burden spearhead an Owls offense that has already managed road wins at Appalachian State and Mercer. Now, they look to continue rolling at Charleston Southern.

For their part, the Buccaneers appear to be trending up as well. After two dismal seasons, they look significantly feistier, including a near-miss at Virginia Tech just nine days ago.

The big worry for these Bucs is the absence of RJ Johnson, a steadying force at point guard. He missed their last game at South Florida, and Charleston Southern got blown out by a team that typically struggles to put away inferior foes.

His status is unclear — many mid-majors are extremely difficult to find information on — but another absence would be a brutal blow.

Even if he plays, I like the Owls. They are further along the developmental curve than Charleston Southern. They rank first nationally in KenPom’s minutes continuity status, making their strong early performances an understandable phenomenon.

Plus, Kennesaw’s athleticism belies its mid-major status and will give CSU issues.

If Johnson misses the game, that is just a bonus.

Pick: Kennesaw State -4.5 (Play to -6)

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Kent State vs. Gonzaga

Monday, Dec. 5
9 p.m. ET
Stadium
Kent State +16

By Jim Root

Let me get this out of the way: I fear “Home Gonzaga” in The Kennel.

The Bulldogs’ breakneck tempo and devastating offense make them a terrifying favorite, capable of burying opponents with huge runs at any time.

The data says that fear is founded in reality. Over the past five seasons — when Gonzaga’s talent level has ascended to new heights — the Bulldogs are 33-23-4 against the spread as a double-digit home favorite (BetLabs).

Fighting upstream against that trend calls for special circumstances. And backing this Kent State squad qualifies as special circumstances.

These Golden Flashes are tough as nails, having already gone to Houston — the best team in the country — where they nearly won outright. They did that despite not playing all that well — they shot 6-for-29 from deep (20.7%) and star guard Sincere Carry was a gruesome 2-for-22 from the field.

So, how exactly did Kent State only lose by five? And how will it stop this Zags offense?

The answer is a resolute defense built on physicality and interior dominance. Kent State ranks 12th nationally in 2-point percentage defense (KenPom), with Cli’Ron Hornbeak and Miryne Thomas forming an intimidating paint duo that contests everything.

The Golden Flashes also rank sixth nationally in defensive turnover rate, allowing them to exploit a crucial Gonzaga weakness.

The Bulldogs’ guard play is still a work in progress, and they have tumbled to 236th in offensive turnover rate (KenPom). Over the past five seasons, they have never ranked worse than 40th in that same stat.

Kent State’s Malique Jacobs is one of the country’s best ballhawks, and he will gladly take advantage of any sloppy play.

If Gonzaga cannot totally dominate at the basket and concedes too many possessions via turnovers, Kent State will hang around.

Pick: Kent State +16 (Play to +15)

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Troy vs. San Diego State

Monday, Dec. 5
10 p.m. ET
MWN
San Diego State -15.5

By Jim Root

These aren’t your typical Aztecs.

In the past, San Diego State has been a difficult team to back as a big favorite. The Aztecs lacked the offensive juice to go on big runs. Plus, they played at such a crawling tempo that there often were not enough possessions for their immense talent to bear out.

That is no longer the case.

These Aztecs are playing up-tempo, clocking the quickest average possession length of Brian Dutcher’s coaching tenure. The offense gets easy transition baskets, and transfers Darrion Trammell and Jaedon LeDee have given the offense a necessary jolt.

Of note: Trammell and forward Aguek Arop missed SDSU’s clash with non-Division I foe Occidental on Friday. However, both absences read as precautionary, so expect both to suit up tonight.

On the other side of the court is Troy, an extremely well-coached team under Scott Cross. The Trojans recently gave Arkansas all it could handle in Fayetteville. They ultimately fell by 13 points, but it was an easy wire-to-wire cover for Cross’ crew.

Repeating that effort will be a challenge. Troy was rested and playing a local rival who was short-handed (no Davonte Davis) and had returned from Maui only a few days prior.

Now Troy is coming off of a loss at SIU Edwardsville and must trek almost 2,000 miles west to one of the better home courts in the sport.

The Trojans may be short-handed themselves, as well. Point guard Duke Miles has missed the last two games. In the four contests before his absence, he racked up averages of 16.0 points and 2.5 assists per game.

His dynamic playmaking would be a great aid against the Aztecs’ stingy defense.

With SDSU’s tempo and bolstered offensive attack profiling as a better favorite, I am looking to back it in the right situation. Considering Troy’s brutal travel and the possible absence of Miles, this spot feels ripe for a blowout.

Pick: San Diego State -15.5 (Play to -17)

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NFL, Caesars Test Live, In-App Streaming

As soon as betting was legalized, the question was asked: How soon will it be when a bettor can see a live NFL game while betting inside an app?

The answer, for the last four years at least, has been a big “who knows?” That was until Sunday, when Caesars Sportsbook streamed the Indianapolis Colts vs. Dallas Cowboys game inside its app.

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On Monday morning, Caesars formally acknowledged that it was granted the right, as an official sponsor of the league, to be the first sportsbook to offer the benefit of being able to watch and bet in the same interface.

How much of a benefit bettors think this provides — and whether Caesars will receive a bump in bettors and or deposits — is up in the air.

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Much of it will have to do with latency and how much of a delay there is in between the action and the display of the game. Sunday’s display on the Caesars app was promising, with the action matching up close with the data display and routinely 15 to 20 seconds before the plays were shown on cable.

Bettors who bet live frequently have often defaulted to watching data displays on apps instead of on television, as there is a good 20 to 30 second jump. Being behind a single play can of course compromise everything for a live bettor.

This is just a test of sorts, as Caesars plans to do this for select games. The question also will be how exclusive the opportunity will be and whether live bettors find it to be a particularly useful feature — compared to watching cable television or just the data feed.

 

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Monday World Cup Projections, Picks | Best Bets & Analysis

The 2022 World Cup continues on Monday with two more games in the round of 16, and we’re back with more projections and bets for these two fixtures.

My projections simulate each game 250,000 times and are powered by my colleague BJ Cunningham‘s offensive and defensive power ratings for each team. Using his power ratings, I use something called diagonal-inflated bivariate poisson to simulate the scoring distribution for each game.

Let’s dive into Monday’s World Cup games.

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Monday World Cup Projections

All bets are 1 unit unless stated otherwise

Round of 16: Japan vs. Croatia (10 a.m. ET)

 

  • Croatia are 50.8% favorites to win in regulation and 58.9% to win prior to a possible penalty shootout.
  • There’s a 15.0% chance this game goes to penalties.
  • Overall, Croatia are favored to advance at 66.4%
  • Japan upset both Spain and Germany in the group stage and it seems there’s an overreaction to that from the market.
  • Japan had a -1.5 xG differential in those two games, and Spain could take it easy knowing they were almost surely through.
  • That’s opened up value on Croatia, who only allowed 0.88 xG in their first two games before facing a desperate Belgian side.
  • Best Bet: Croatia to Advance (-177 via BetRivers)
  • Bet to: -185
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Round of 16: Brazil vs. South Korea (2 p.m. ET)

 

  • Brazil are 72.6% favorites to win in regulation and 81.1% to win prior to a possible penalty shootout.
  • There’s an 11.9% chance this game goes to penalties.
  • Overall, Brazil are favored to advance at 87.0%.
  • Brazil have the strongest defense in the world.
  • Meanwhile, South Korea averaged only 1.9 xG per game this cycle against an average schedule.
  • South Korea also have a strong defense and may make scoring difficult on Brazil.
  • There’s value on Brazil to win by a score of 1-0 or 2-0.
  • Let’s put 0.4 units on 1-0 and 0.6 units on 2-0.
  • Best Bets: Correct Score 1-0 Brazil (+600 via DraftKings) | Correct Score 2-0 Brazil (+475 via at DraftKings)
  • Bet to: +500 and +475 respectively

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College Football Odds & Early Bets: 5 Bowl Game Picks, Including Kansas vs. Arkansas, Oklahoma vs. Florida State

college football-odds-early bets-bowl games-oklahoma vs florida state-kansas vs arkansas-memphis vs utah state-southern miss vs rice-middle tennessee vs san diego state-2022

Welcome to bowl season, the best time of the year. We all know the college football market moves a lot, and that’s especially true during bowl season with opt-outs, the transfer portal moves and coaching chances.

Like any other sport, it’s paramount to get the best price possible when betting on college football.

I’m here to help you navigate the bowl season market by providing a few lines I’m buying right now.

The hope for this piece is to beat the market, get the best price possible, and in the long run, save you some money with closing line value. To do that, we’ll utilize our Action Network PRO projections, ESPN’s SP+ and my own projections to create a consensus.

You hear all the time, “Process over results.” The best way to know if the process is working is by closing line value (CLV), meaning how many points did you beat the closing line by?

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I’ll be keeping track of exactly how many points we’ve beaten the market by in recent weeks:

Week 11

  • Bowling Green +2.5 → +2.5 closing line
  • UCLA -18.5 → -20 closing line

Week 12

  • Louisiana +24 →  +24.5 closing line
  • Washington State -4 → -4 closing line

Week 12

  • Boise State -15.5 →  -17 closing line
  • Kansas State -11.5 → -12 closing line
  • Air Force -1 → -2.5 closing line

Championship Weekend 

  • Utah +3 →  +2.5 closing line
  • Michigan -16 → -16.5 closing line

Now, let’s dive into bowl season.

Southern Miss vs. Rice

Saturday, Dec. 17
5:45 p.m. ET
ESPN
Southern Miss Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-5.5
-115
48.5
-110o / -110u
 -225
Rice Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+5.5
-105
48.5
-110o / -110u
 +184
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Rice vs. Southern Miss Projections
Cunningham SP+
Southern Miss -7.5 Southern Miss -8.4 Southern Miss -11.7

Former Conference USA foes meet at Hancock Stadium in Mobile, Alabama, for the LendingTree Bowl on Dec. 17.

Southern Miss comes in at 6-6 but covered five of its last six games and was one of only two teams to beat Tulane this season.

USM has a fantastic defense, which is the main reason why it made its way to a bowl game. The Golden Eagles allowed only 5.2 yards per play and ranked 14th in Success Rate Allowed and 22nd in EPA/Play.

Rice has been shuffling through a bunch of different quarterbacks throughout the season.

It started out with Wiley Green in the opener. Then, he got hurt, and the Owls went to TJ McMahon, which is when they went on their run in the middle of the season. However, McMahon got knocked out of the game against Western Kentucky and has not returned.

It’s been a mixture of a couple of freshmen in Shawqi Itraish and AJ Padgett the past few games, which has not worked out well. Since McMahon went down, the Owls have scored just 24 points in their last two games and averaged only 4.6 yards per play.

Defensively, Rice has been putrid all season. It has allowed a whopping 6.2 yards per play while ranking 123rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 120th in Finishing Drives. It’s been bad against both the pass and the run, as it sits outside the top 100 in both Passing and Rushing Success Rate Allowed.

Southern Miss’ offense runs the ball on 54.9% of offensive plays. It also lost starting quarterback Ty Keyes in October for the season, but Trey Lowe has filled in nicely as a starter for three games. He has put up an 80.6 PFF passing grade with nine big-time throws compared to three turnover-worthy plays. He should be able to throw on a secondary that ranks 114th in EPA/Pass Allowed.

As you can see, all three models have Southern Miss projected above -7, so I’d grab -5.5 now before this closes at -7.

Pick: Southern Miss -5.5

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Middle Tennessee vs. San Diego State

Saturday, Dec. 24
8 p.m. ET
ESPN
Middle Tennessee Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+1.5
-105
48.5
-110o / -110u
 +114
San Diego State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-1.5
-115
48.5
-110o / -110u
 -137
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Middle Tennessee vs. San Diego State Projections
Cunningham SP+
San Diego State -4.0 San Diego State -4.1 San Diego State -2.4

The main reason San Diego State won three of its last four games just to reach bowl eligibility is because of its defense. The Aztecs played some incredible ball, allowing just 5.0 yards per play while ranking 13th in EPA/Play and 12th in Finishing Drives Allowed.

Over their final nine games of the season, only two teams scored more than 14 points against them: Fresno State and San Jose State.

Middle Tennessee is a pass-happy offense that throws the ball 55.5% of the time. Quarterback Chase Cunningham has been pretty bad, however. His PFF passing grade sits at 65.6, and he’s averaging only 6.9 yards per attempt to go along with 15 big-time throws and 18 turnover-worthy plays.

The main problem has been his offensive line, which ranks 119th in terms of a PFF pass-blocking grade. That has translated to Cunningham playing from a crowded pocket on 33% of his dropbacks.

That’s a problem against San Diego State, which ranks top-25 nationally in both pass-rushing and coverage grade, per PFF.

Middle Tennessee has also struggled to run the ball, as it’s averaging only 3.3 yards per carry (113th in FBS) and ranks 98th in Rushing Success Rate and 95th in EPA/Rush. It’s going to be a long Christmas Eve for the Blue Raider offense.

On the other side, San Diego State’s offense has shown some flashes of greatness toward the end of the season.

It put up a combined 77 points against San Jose State and New Mexico behind stellar performances from quarterback Jalen Mayden, who took over the starting job in Week 6. He’s averaging 8.9 yards per attempt with 10 touchdowns in seven starts.

Mayden will be key in this game because Middle Tennessee’s defensive weakness comes in its secondary, which ranks 91st in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 81st in passing explosiveness allowed.

Mayden is also a big-time threat on the ground, averaging 6.7 yards per carry.

All three projection models are showing decent value on San Diego State, so I would grab it at -1.5 now before it moves.

Pick: San Diego State -1.5

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Memphis vs. Utah State

Tuesday, Dec. 27
3:15 p.m. ET
ESPN
Memphis Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-10.5
-110
65.5
-110o / -110u
 -430
Utah State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+10.5
-110
65.5
-110o / -110u
 +340
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Memphis vs. Utah State Projections
Cunningham SP+
Memphis -13 Memphis -13.3 Memphis -19.9

Memphis and Utah State meet in Dallas two days after Christmas for the Servpro First Responders Bowl.

Memphis finished with a disappointing 6-6 record, but four of its six losses came by one score or less. The only time it lost by more than 10 points came in the first game of the season at Mississippi State.

The Tigers offense has been very well-balanced, but the play of quarterback Seth Henigan has been the key to their success. Henigan has been a slightly above-average quarterback, putting up a 77.9 PFF passing grade while averaging 7.9 yards per attempt.

The key for him in this game is going to be throwing the ball deep because Utah State ranks 123rd in explosive passing allowed. Henigan owns an 85.0 PFF passing grade on throws over 20 yards in the air, and 40% of his attempts this season have come on balls over 10 yards in the air.

Memphis has an average rushing attack, but it’s worth noting Utah State defense has been very poor against the run. The Aggies are allowing 5.1 yards per carry (121st in FBS) while ranking 119th in rushing explosiveness allowed and 96th in EPA/Rush Allowed.

Utah State quarterback Logan Bonner is out for the season, which means Cooper Legas has been handling the snaps over the second half of the season.

Legas has been a below-average quarterback, averaging only 7.0 yards per attempt with a 64.5 PFF passing grade. That’s not good news when the best way to beat the Memphis defense is through the air.

The Aggies’ run game has not been much better. Utah State ranks 114th in Rushing Success Rate and 105th in EPA/Rush, while Memphis ranks top-30 in rushing explosiveness allowed and EPA/Rush Allowed.

Most importantly, Utah State’s offense sits 110th in Finishing Drives.

All three projection models have Memphis projected above -13, so I would grab it at -10.5 now.

Pick: Memphis -10.5

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Kansas vs. Arkansas

Wednesday, Dec. 28
5:30 p.m. ET
ESPN
Kansas Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+4.5
-110
67.5
-110o / -110u
 +152
Arkansas Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-4.5
-110
67.5
-110o / -110u
 -184
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Kansas vs. Arkansas Projections
Cunningham SP+
Arkansas -7 Arkansas -7.2 Arkansas -9.2

Kansas will play its first bowl game since 2008 when it takes on Arkansas in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl on Dec. 28.

The Razorbacks already have had a few opt-outs with linebacker Bumper Pool and wide receiver Jadon Haselwood choosing to not play in the bowl game, but the big news is that quarterback KJ Jefferson has decided to return for another season.

Arkansas has been an unlucky team as well, as four of its six losses have come by three points or less.

With Jefferson under center and Raheim Sanders in the backfield, the Razorbacks should be able to run all over this Kansas defense. Kansas has given up over 5.5 yards per carry in three straight weeks, and Texas ran for 427 yards against it on Nov. 19.

For the season, Kansas ranks 122nd in EPA/Rush, 120th in Defensive Line Yards and 124th in Stuff Rate.

Sanders is averaging a whopping 6.5 yards per carry with an 88.3 PFF rushing grade and 40 runs of at least 10 yards. Jefferson, meanwhile, has over 100 carries himself, averaging 5.2 yards per carry with 24 runs over 10 yards. The Hogs should be able to run all over this defense.

Jefferson is having an outstanding season as a passer as well, averaging 8.7 yards per attempt with an 83.3 PFF passing grade and a 76.6% adjusted completion percentage.

Kansas ranks 107th in EPA/Pass Allowed, so even though Jefferson doesn’t have his top target, he should be just fine moving the ball through the air.

Luckily for the Jayhawks, they boast a stellar offense. However, that unit relies heavily on a consistent run game.

Quarterback Jalon Daniels has returned from injury and had a good game against Texas but was very poor against Kansas State. He averaged just 5.5 yards per attempt against the Wildcats to go along with a 50.6 PFF passing grade.

Additionally, since Daniels’ return, the Kansas rushing attack has generated just 3.7 yards per carry. It’ll need to kick the running game into high gear because that’s how teams beat Arkansas.

All three projection models have Arkansas projected at -7 or above, so I would grab the Razorbacks at -4.5.

Pick: Arkansas -4.5

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Oklahoma vs. Florida State 

Thursday, Dec. 29
5:30 p.m. ET
ESPN
Oklahoma Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+7.5
-110
60.5
-110o / -110u
 +245
Florida State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-7.5
-110
60.5
-110o / -110u
 -310
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Oklahoma vs. Florida State Projections
Cunningham SP+
Florida State -1.0 Florida State -3.4 Oklahoma -2.3

Oklahoma finished the season a disappointing 6-6 in Brent Venables’ first season at the helm in Norman, but it’s been one of the unluckiest teams in college football.

In games that Dillon Gabriel started and finished, the Sooners went 6-4 with all four losses coming by one score or less.

Gabriel had a solid first season in Norman, putting up a PFF passing grade of 80.6, averaging 8.4 yards per attempt with 24 touchdowns compared to just six interceptions.

However, the strength of Florida State’s defense comes in the secondary, which ranks 16th in EPA/Pass Allowed. That means Oklahoma is going to have to get things done on the ground.

Unfortunately for the Sooners, they will be without star running back Eric Gray, who has declared for the NFL Draft.

Freshman Jovantae Barnes has shown himself to be a capable backup and possesses big-play ability with 11 runs of at least 10 yards on less than 90 carries this season.

He also has a really good offensive line blocking in front of him, as Oklahoma ranks 39th in Offensive Line Yards and owns the 14th-best run-blocking grade, per PFF.

Florida State sits 79th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, 83rd in EPA/Rush Allowed and 111th in Defensive Line Yards, so it hasn’t found a way to stop the run at all.

Additionally, the Seminoles rank 91st in Finishing Drives Allowed, so the Oklahoma offense will without a doubt be able to keep up with Florida State’s offense by putting up touchdowns instead of field goals.

Led by Jordan Travis at quarterback, the Seminoles offense has been outstanding this season. Travis is averaging 8.9 yards per attempt to go along with an 86.4 PFF passing grade and 22 big-time throws compared to seven turnover-worthy plays.

However, he’s started to fade a bit down the stretch.
Image via PFF

The Florida State rushing attack has been the catalyst for the offense, ranking ninth in Rushing Success Rate and second in EPA/Rush. Meanwhile, the Oklahoma defense has been below average against both the run and the pass.

With Gabriel under center, Oklahoma will have plenty of backdoor opportunities, as he hasn’t lost a game by more than seven points this season.

All three projection models have this game projected pretty close to a pick’em, so I’d grab Oklahoma +7.5 now.

Pick: Oklahoma +7.5

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Suns vs. Mavericks Odds, Pick, Prediction: Bet Devin Booker, Phoenix to Cover (December 5)

Suns vs. Mavericks Odds

Suns Odds +3.5
Mavericks Odds -3.5
Over/Under 221.5
Time 8:30 p.m. ET
TV NBA TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

On Monday night, we get treated to a rematch of last season’s Western Conference Semifinals where the Dallas Mavericks pulled off an amazing upset of the Phoenix Suns in a seven-game series.

The Mavericks didn’t just beat the Suns, they stepped on their throats and embarrassed them in a 33-point beatdown on their home court in Game 7. After a dominant regular season, Chris Paul and the Suns were poised to make a championship run, but not on Luka Doncic’s watch.

The Suns got their revenge against the Mavericks in this season’s home opener with a 107-105 victory, but it took a 22-point comeback and a heroic shot from Damion Lee to get the job done. With the Mavericks losing in such heartbreaking fashion, is it their turn for a revenge spot?

The Suns are winners of seven of their previous eight games. The Mavericks have lost five of their last seven and have underperformed against market expectations this season. Yet, the Mavericks are 3.5-point favorites.

Hmm … something doesn’t smell right here, and this line sticks out like a sore thumb. Let’s break down this game below and see if we can spot why.

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Will the Suns Hit the Fatigue Wall?

The Suns continue to be one of NBA’s elites even with Paul missing extensive time and Jae Crowder not joining the team this season. They have a 16-7 record and are second and fifth in Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating, respectively, per NBA Advanced Stats. They are the only team in the league that is top-five in both categories.

Why are they underdogs? One reason is because they are playing the second game of a back-to-back. It is also their third game in four nights and fourth game in six nights. They’re playing again on Wednesday, so the mileage is building up.

However, with the early blowout of the Spurs on Sunday, all of the Suns’ starters played fewer than 30 minutes. That is crucial, especially for Mikal Bridges who has been dealing with knee soreness. The fatigue factor may not be as impactful as anticipated.

Nonetheless, the line implies that there could be some key players getting a rest day. The Suns are known to be secretive with their injury reports. Do not be surprised if either Bridges, Devin Booker, or Deandre Ayton get a rest day.

We know Chris Paul and Torrey Craig are traveling with the team on this road trip and could end up suiting up. The point is that it is unknown at this time, and we likely will not get news until tomorrow afternoon or evening.

Another reason the line could is that the Suns’ have struggled on the road. They are 4-5 on the road this season, but they’ve won their last two road games convincingly and have propelled themselves to have the top Offensive Rating in the league on the road.

The Suns are 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season, and they are 9-3 ATS against teams with a Defensive Rating better than the season average.

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Mavericks Underperforming Market Expectations

It has been a weird and disappointing start for this Mavericks team, who were expected to make a huge leap forward after making it to the Western Conference Finals last season. They’re sitting with a mediocre 11-11 record, but their league-worst 6-15-1 ATS record indicates they are not performing up to market expectations.

Losing Jalen Brunson was a big hit, and their depth has suffered as a result. Spencer Dinwiddie has filled in decently in the starting role, but now they lack a playmaker off the bench. They’ve recently signed Kemba Walker, who should fit their needs really well.

Christian Wood is having a nice season as their sixth man, but it has been no secret that he is unhappy about his role. He is their third-most impactful player from a Value Over Replacement Player perspective, per Basketball Reference. Wood is listed as questionable with an illness for Monday’s game.

The Mavericks’ defense has taken a step back this season. They are 17th in Defensive Rating in their previous five games, per NBA Advanced Stats. They are 29th in Rebound Rate versus the Suns sixth in Rebound Rate. With Deandre Ayton manning the middle for the Suns, I think they will dominate the boards and give them a big edge in this matchup.

Here are some staggering stats and splits from this season. The Mavericks are 0-4 ATS on the first game of a back-to-back (10-21 ATS since the 2020-21 season), per the SDQL at Killer Sports. This is active on the Mavs as they face they Nuggets on Tuesday night and then the Bucks on Friday.

With such a tough schedule coming up, they may be preserving some of that energy. The Mavericks are 0-10 ATS after a win this season, per the SDQL at Killer Sports. They completely melt down and let their guard loose after a win.

Suns-Mavericks Pick

I understand there are so many factors at play here. The Suns’ injury report is extremely concerning as they could be inclined to sit some key players on the second night of a back-to-back. The Mavericks could be without Wood, which hurts their bench depth.

Even being aggressive with my fatigue factor situational adjustments, I still have the Suns as one-point favorites. The splits I shared above all favor the Suns here, and until we are informed, I am assuming most of the Suns’ starters will suit up. Therefore, I am jumping on this favorable price of +3.5.

Take note, there is a lot of risk and potential room to move, so keep your eyes peeled for news during the day.

Pick: Suns +3.5

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NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Avalanche vs. Flyers (December 5)

Avalanche vs. Flyers Odds

Avalanche Odds -210
Flyers Odds +180
Over/Under 6 (-106 / -104)
Time 7 p.m. ET
TV NBCSP
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

The Colorado Avalanche conclude a four-game road trip with a game against the Philadelphia Flyers on Monday night while looking to salvage their second win.

They’ll have to contend with a Philadelphia Flyers squad that has vastly underachieved to start the season, winning just one of their last 13 games.

The betting odds favor the Avs in this one, but the advanced metrics suggest that the Flyers have a puncher’s chance in this inter-conference battle.

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Continued Cup Hangover for Colorado Avalanche

Colorado is proving that the Stanley Cup hangover is a real phenomenon. The Avs have not maintained their lofty standards from last season and are sitting five games above .500 past the quarter mark of the season.

Although that would be an ideal position for most teams, it’s evident that Nathan MacKinnon and co. are adjusting to the offseason roster adjustments, and their metrics are worse because of it.

The Avalanche finished the 2021-22 campaign with a 52.0% expected goals-for percentage and 1.014 PDO. This year they are much worse, watching their expected goals-for rating plummet to 48.7%, with their PDO still hovering above average at 1.007.

Colorado has enough skilled players to offset some of its analytic deficiencies, as reflected in its actual goals-for rating of 52.1%. Still, Avs are at risk of further correction over their coming games.

Those worrisome metrics are amplified on the road. Colorado’s expected goals-for drops to 48.1%, with their actual rating even further behind at 47.6%. Moreover, their recent efforts have been fruitless as they’ve been dominated on the road over their past couple of outings. The Avs have posted a 41.4% Corsi rating across their previous two games, getting out-chanced 48-37 in scoring chances and 26-14 in high-danger opportunities. Consequently, their expected goals-for rating has taken a hit, falling to 41.0%.

Inconsistency has plagued the Avalanche this season. They continue to outplay their metrics, but as we’ve seen more recently, they don’t have the same enthusiasm on the road as we’ve seen from them as the hosts.

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Philadelphia Flyers Step up Defense

The Flyers’ season started on the right foot, with the Metropolitan Division basement dwellers winning seven of their first 12 games. Since then, they’ve got just one win to show for their efforts, though they have strong underlying metrics.

The Flyers should eventually start to be rewarded for their above-average performances, and their best chance at winning comes on home ice, where they could line match to their advantage. Further, their metrics have fallen below normal ranges, and they should start to progress back toward average over their coming games.

More recently, defense has been a priority for the Flyers. Philadelphia has limited its opponents to eight or fewer high-danger chances in four of its last seven and 24 or fewer scoring opportunities in all but two of those outings.

However, the improved defensive play has come at the expense of offensive production. The Flyers are averaging 6.4 high-danger chances over the seven-game sample, below their season average of 7.7. That’s negatively impacted output, with the team’s shooting percentage dropping to 6.4%. The Flyers’ production metrics aren’t where we expect them to be, and we are anticipating more robust efforts from them soon.

Even though the Flyers’ offensive stats have faltered, their analytics have been buoyed by their suffocating defense. Philadelphia has outplayed its opponents in three of its past four, posting expected goals-for ratings above 62.0% twice. Those performances will eventually start to pay off, and the Flyers should start to see more wins because of it.

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Avalanche vs. Flyers Pick

The Avs face a step down in quality against the Flyers. Still, they have some concerning metrics on this road trip. More importantly, they can’t continue to get outplayed and win games.

Conversely, the Flyers have tilted the ice in their favor over their last few games and are better than their record implies.

The safe play would be taking the Flyers on the puck line, but we’re rolling the dice with them to win outright. As of this writing, we can get a price of +180, and I’m comfortable taking it down to +160.

Pick: Philadelphia Flyers +180

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Japan vs Croatia Odds, Pick, Preview

Japan soccer

Japan vs. Croatia Odds

Monday, Dec. 5
10 a.m. ET
FOX
Japan Odds +300
Croatia Odds +100
Draw +225
Over/Under 2.5 (+120 / -150)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) (+100 / -134)
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here.

Through the first four matches of the round of 16, there’s been relatively little drama. All four of the bigger favorites — the Netherlands, Argentina, France and England — advanced to the quarterfinals without ever trailing.

All four led by two goals at one point in the second half. Sunday’s match between Japan and Croatia is the most even matchup on paper and in the betting markets.

Neither side is seen as a true contender to lift the World Cup on December 18, but both have a golden opportunity at a quarterfinal appearance. Japan needed a second half comeback against Spain just to get out of their group as the winner, while Croatia survived a late Belgium onslaught and many Romelu Lukaku misses to finish second in Group F.

Croatia have the more talented side on paper, but that hasn’t stopped Japan before. The Samurai Blue have already upset possession dominant sides Germany and Spain. Can they pull off another mild upset?

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Japan a Dangerous Side Thanks to Tactics

Japan’s ability to strike quickly in transition when they win the ball off of their opponents makes them a dangerous underdog in this tournament. Getting matchups with Spain and Germany — two possession-dominant teams that are vulnerable immediately after losing the ball — helped them to get out of that group as an underdog.

They don’t match up nearly as well with teams like France or England that are much safer in possession and don’t commit many numbers forward.

Japanese manager Hajime Moriyasu came under fire for his decision to rotate a lot of his top attackers against Costa Rica when they lost that match, but now it might pay off for Japan, who are much less likely to run out of gas in this match against Croatia.

They sat deeper and absorbed pressure for the first half of both matches against Germany and Spain. Once Ritsu Doan and Kaoru Mitoma came on at halftime, you saw Japan’s defensive press at work. The second goal may have been a bit of a fluke in how it played out, but they really troubled the Spanish attack as soon as Rodri or Pau Torres attempted to bring the ball into the Japanese half.

The result was 18% possession for Japan — remarkably low for a winning side — but Spain managed just 1.1 xG in the match.

This passing map is a perfect example of what happened to the Spanish attack against Japan. Pedri, Gavi and Busquets weren’t able to pass forward and link with the attack. All of the possession was forced to be recycled and that’s a very repeatable game plan for Japan in this match.

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Croatia Don’t Have the Fire Power They Once Did

Croatia had a stellar transition performance against a Canadian team that pushed numbers forward and frequently lost its shape once the ball was lost.

That afforded Croatia’s midfield and wide players a ton of space to tear up the Canadian defense. The performance was quite impressive, but Croatia as a whole were quite average in the group stage. They finished with an even xG difference with 3.8 xG and 3.8 xGA. The defense was quite fortunate to not concede more — especially in the second half against Belgium.

Romelu Lukaku had chance after chance to bury Croatia’s tournament chances and it was the only good half that Belgium played all tournament. This match should play out somewhat similarly to the Morocco match for Croatia. In that match, Croatia weren’t able to generate any real space for wide players to beat defenders one-on-one.

The main striker — Andrej Kramaric — isn’t a threat to run in behind and needs the ball to be played into his feet to be impactful. The forwards still lack elite quality and are significantly worse than the players Japan just defended on Germany and Spain.

While the Japanese penalty area was under assault in the match against Germany, Croatia’s attackers aren’t of the quality to outclass the Japan defense. When they haven’t been able to thrive in transition, Croatia’s attack hasn’t looked all that impressive in Qatar.

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Japan vs. Croatia Pick

All of the favorites have rolled thus far, but Japan are a live underdog on Monday.

Japan have sustained attacks from much better attacking teams in this tournament and still managed to create a handful of transition opportunities at the other end.

This game could become a bit of a stalemate until the first goal is scored. Croatia will control the majority of the possession and will be probing the wide areas to try and sustain attacks on Japan’s defense.

If Moriyasu plays a more passive lineup in the first half, you could see this game open up once Doan, Mitoma and other more direct attackers challenge this Croatian backline. Until then, however, neither side will be taking a ton of chances.

The longer this match remains a stalemate, the more I like the underdog to at least get this into extra time. And if Japan do go down in this match, they’ve shown how capable they are of rescuing results against better sides.

I’ll play Japan +0.5 at -130 or better and will be sprinkling to advance at +150 or better.

The Pick: Japan +0.5 (-120)

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BetMGM Bonus Code ACTION Fetches $1,000 for Bucs vs. Saints

betmgm bonus code graphic with tom brady

BetMGM bonus code ACTION unlocks a $1,000 first bet on the house for all new users to the platform.

BetMGM is one of my favorite sportsbooks, especially ahead of Monday Night Football, due to its strong first touchdown scorer pricing and first TD scorer insurance promotion.

Here’s how the bonus offer works:

  • Sign up and desposit at least $10
  • Make your first wager up to $1,000
  • If that bet wins, you keep the winnings and original bet
  • If that bet loses, you get refunded whatever you lost in free bets

That’s it! We’ll explain with some more examples from Monday Night Football below.

Bonus code ACTIONYARD unlocks $200 in free bets for users in Maryland, Illinois, Louisiana and Kansas. It’s a more cost-effective offer than bonus code ACTION, since you don’t need to risk much.

In search of a casino bonus code with up to $1,025 in value? Use ACTIONCASINO or click here for more details about how the promo works.

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How to Sign Up

Signing up at BetMGM is a breeze. You just need to be physically located inside a state where BetMGM operates; you don’t actually have to live there. Here’s our guide to betting while traveling.

  1. Click here
  2. Use ACTION or ACTIONYARD at checkout
  3. Enter all your info – name, address, phone number, last four digits of your SSN so they can verify your identity, etc.
  4. Deposit at least $10
  5. Make your first bet up to $1,000

$1,000 Bonus on the House

Since there are so many sportsbook sign-up offers out there, we did a deep dive on them so the lingo is easier to differentiate.

This promo is common in the industry — what we call a “bet on the house.” Here’s how it works, with examples from Monday Night Football.

Selecting Your First Wager

Alright, let’s that first wager. Our NFL expert Chris Raybon likes the Bucs-Saints total under 41.

From Raybon:

The Saints offense has been sputtering of late and has failed to top 13 points in three of its past four games. One of the biggest issues is that defenses have seen enough tape of Taysom Hill and can no longer be caught off guard by his packages. Hill has recorded just 72 scoreless rushing yards on 19 carries over his past four games, and his five passing plays over that span have averaged just 5.4 yards per attempt. He’s also been a non-factor as a receiver for the entire season, amassing just 31 yards and a touchdown on 80 routes.

Another big issue is the offensive line has struggled to generate any push for Alvin Kamara, who hasn’t topped 3.5 yards per carry since Week 7. The Bucs run defense hasn’t been as elite as in years past, but is up to 14th in DVOA and has allowed just 148 yards on 41 carries (3.6 YPC) over the past two games.

Andy Dalton has been serviceable for the Saints, but the Bucs’ sixth-ranked pass defense in DVOA represents the toughest matchup he has faced all season. In four games against above-average pass defenses (Bengals, Ravens, Steelers, 49ers), Dalton is averaging just 187.5 yards passing and has thrown three touchdowns and three interceptions. The Saints have averaged just 12.3 points per game in those contests.

Chris Olave has had an excellent rookie year, but hasn’t been a factor in the red zone and has just three touchdowns on 92 targets this season. Dalton will not have the services of Juwan Johnson (ankle), who leads the team with five touchdown catches.

Watching the First Wager Play Out

Alright, so how will this wager go if it wins or loses? Let’s say you put $500 on this under as your first bet.

  • If the game goes over and it loses, you get $500 back in free bets.
  • If the game goes under it wins, you profit about $450, and keep the original $500. That’s $950 in your account you can either continue betting or withdraw.

So what happens if you lose and get the free bets? Let’s dive into that next.

Applying Free Bets

A free bet is close to cash, but not quite. You can’t withdraw them; they must be wagered to turn into cash.

Say I get $500 back in free bets and put it all on Morocco moneyline against Spain in the World Cup on Tuesday, priced at +600.

  • If Morocco wins, I profit $3,000 (6.0 x $500), but don’t keep the original $500 in free bets.
  • If Morocco loses, I end up with nothing.

Offers by State

  1. ACTION: $1,000 risk-free bet. If your first bet loses, you get the same amount back in free bets. This is available in all BetMGM states but New York.
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  3. ACTIONOHIO: MGM will give you $200 in free bets with no deposit required. Ohio betting launches on Jan. 1.
State Code
Arizona ACTION
Colorado ACTION
Indiana ACTION
Illinois ACTIONYARD
Iowa ACTION
Kansas ACTIONYARD
Louisiana ACTIONYARD
Maryland ACTIONYARD
Michigan ACTION
Mississippi None
New Jersey ACTION
Nevada None
New York None
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Ohio Pre-Registration 

A new state will launch sports betting in the next few months. BetMGM is offering an excellent sign-up bonus in both states — $200 in free bets with no deposit required. Because acquiring new customers during state launches is so important, you won’t get a better offer than this.

  • Ohio, on Jan. 1: Use code ACTIONOHIO
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Saints vs. Buccaneers NFL Prediction, Odds: Sharps Betting This 61% ATS System for Monday Night Football

saints-bucs-prediction-monday-night-football-algorithm-elite

Monday Night Football’s Saints vs. Buccaneers game has an elite betting algorithm that targets sharp movement.

The algorithm has gone 110-70-3 against-the-spread (ATS) since 2005 (61% win rate) and only lights up for specific spreads under specific parameters.

For Monday Night Football’s Saints vs. Buccaneers game, sharp action on one side of the spread — in tandem with four other parameters — means there’s fantastic value on that pick.

A $500 per game bettor would have a profit of roughly $17,500 if they tailed all 183 NFL games that have aligned with this algorithm since 2005.

Saints vs. Buccaneers NFL Prediction

The team you would target for this algorithm needs to:

  1. Be coming off of a loss
  2. Be on at least a two-game road trip
  3. Have its spread lose value since opening on account of sharp action

The game also needs to be an intraconference contest.

All of these parameters fit the Saints’ spread at a market-best price of +3.5 (-107) at PointsBet.

The Saints are coming off a 13-0 loss to the 49ers last week. This contest against the Bucs is the second of two straight road games. And New Orleans opened up as +5.5 underdogs before sharp action pushed that line to its consensus of +3.5.

Teams coming off a loss, on a road trip and with sharp action on their spread have historically done fantastic ATS. As mentioned, teams of this nature have covered 61% of the time since 2005.

All systems are a go for a value play on New Orleans to cover on Monday night.

PRO Pick: Saints +3.5 (-107) or better

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Brazil vs South Korea Odds, Predictions, Pick | World Cup Match Preview

Casemiro

Brazil vs. South Korea Odds

Monday, Dec. 5
2 p.m. ET
FOX
Brazil Odds -350
South Korea Odds +1100
Draw +425
Over/Under 2.5 (-125 / +100)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) (+137 / -188)
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here.

World Cup favorite Brazil take on South Korea as they look to book their spot in the quarterfinals.

Things got a little nervy on the final day, but Brazil ended up winning Group G. However, the Brazilians lost their first match in regular time in a competitive competition since the 2018 World Cup in their last match against Cameroon.

South Korea qualified for the round of 16 in the most dramatic fashion with a stoppage time goal to beat Portugal and edge Uruguay by the goals scored tiebreaker. The South Koreans have shown an incredible ability on the counter and you could say they’ve been the better side in all three of their group stage matches, so they will be not push overs.

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Brazil Impressive But Not Perfect

Brazil were impressive in their first two World Cup matches, beating Serbia and Switzerland, but they failed to close things out against Cameroon.

They are still the tournament favorite and Brazil will most likely be getting their star man Neymar back from an ankle injury he suffered in their first match against Serbia.

Even without Neymar for a majority of the tournament, Brazil have incredible underlying numbers, creating 5.9 expected goals (xG), and only allowing 1.0 xG in three group stage matches. Brazil were one of the best defensive teams coming into the tournament, allowing just 0.74 xG per 90 minutes throughout Copa America and World Cup Qualifying.

Tite has been at the hem of Brazil since 2016 and by now it’s pretty clear what Brazil’s tactics are. The are going to play out of a 4-3-3, but the team’s shape with change throughout the match.

What often happens when Brazil is in possession is they use a positional-based system that has allowed them to be much more structured. They also love to push the two wide midfielders up the pitch and squeeze the two wingers close to Neymar, which essentially creates a 3-2-5 with one of the two full backs pressing up to create a double pivot with Casemiro. 

Brazil will have a majority of the possession, but they need to be careful of South Korea’s quick strike ability and not lose the ball high up the pitch. 

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South Korea Have a Clear Style of Play

South Korea have been really impressive during this World Cup and deserve to be in the round of 16. They ended up with a +0.5 xGD, which is really impressive in a group with Uruguay and Portugal. Although most of it came in the match against Ghana, South Korea had the third most passes into the penalty area during the group stage.

However, this match is going to set up similarly to their first match against Uruguay. South Korea did such a good job of taking away the middle of the pitch and not allowing Federico Valverde and Rodrigo Bentancur to make easy passes to the front line. They are likely going to force Brazil to play the ball out wide and beat them with crosses into the box.

South Korea play direct and aggressive. They love to get the ball moving forward at a rapid pace on the counter whether it be long balls or combination passes, which is what you need to do if you want to beat Brazil. 

Their forwards are always prepared to make runs in behind the last line of defense, which they have done with a lot of success this World Cup. However, they haven’t faced a possession-dominant side like Brazil yet, so we’ll see how they cope having to defend in their own area for a majority of the match.

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Brazil vs. South Korea Pick

These two played a friendly over the summer with Brazil pounding South Korea 5-1. However, there isn’t much you can take away from friendlies and South Korea will be much more conservative defensively.

With Brazil’s slow possession-based style, combined with South Korea’s compact low block, I think will lead to a low-event type of match.

I only have 2.12 goals projected for this game, so I like the value on the under.

The Pick: Under 2.5 (+100) 

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Celtics vs. Raptors Odds, Pick, Prediction: Pascal Siakam Key to Toronto’s Success (December 5)

celtics-vs-raptors-odds-preview-prediction-pick-nba-december-5-2022

Celtics vs. Raptors Odds

Celtics Odds -1
Raptors Odds +1
Over/Under 227
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
TV NBA League Pass
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Boston Celtics travel to Toronto to face the Raptors after a statement win against the Brooklyn Nets at Barclay’s Center.

This is the second game of a six-game road trip for the Celtics, who will travel to Phoenix after this game.

Meanwhile, the Raptors find themselves in the middle of a three-game homestand with a day off in between each game.

Can Boston overcome Toronto’s situational advantage? Let’s break it down.
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Boston Celtics

The Celtics are coming off a statement win against the Brooklyn Nets — a playoff rematch from last season. I had the Nets +3 as yesterday’s best bet because of the revenge spot for Brooklyn after Boston swept the Nets in the postseason.

Despite the motivational spot, and the Celtics playing without Marcus Smart, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Boston was dominant and won three of four quarters.

Tonight is a different story, however. It isn’t much of a motivational spot for either team and the Celtics will have traveled from Brooklyn. The Raptors also do a few things that could give the Celtics problems.

One of the Celtics’ only weaknesses offensively is on the glass. Playing a five-out attack leads to massive three-point production and leaves the paint nice and clear, but it also leaves Boston vulnerable in the rebounding department. The Celtics have the second-worst Offensive Rebound Percentage at 21.5%. Meanwhile, the Raptors are 11th in Opponent Offensive Rebound Percentage (26%), which means any Boston miss is likely to end up in the hands of a Toronto Raptor.

The Celtics are first in the league in Effective Field Goal Percentage (59.9%), as a result of being second in 3-Point Rate (44.5%). This is particularly problematic for a Raptors team that allows the 24th-most 3-pointers in the league (37.8%).
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Toronto Raptors

Since returning from a groin injury on Nov. 28, Raptors forward Pascal Siakam has slightly underperformed compared to his pre-injury numbers.

There’s no cause for concern, but the difference is there as Siakam has diminished per-game averages across every major statistical category. Most notable is his reduction in assists from 7.7 pre-injury to 5.8 since Nov. 4.

The Raptors are 2-2 against the spread in their past four with Siakam, which is nothing to be ashamed of considering their two losses came to the New Orleans Pelicans — albeit an injured Pelicans team — and the Brooklyn Nets. Yet, it’s disappointing considering Toronto started the season 7-2 against the spread.

I expect that record to improve as Siakam settles into his playmaking role — one of the most important measuring sticks for the Raptors success. According to Cleaning the Glass, Siakam is eighth in usage (32.4%) and in the 100th and 96th percentile, respectively, for Assist Percentage (33.2%) and Assist Usage (1.02). In games where Siakam has five or more assists, the Raptors are 9-1 against the spread this season.

The Raptors will also look to use their rebounding advantage to get out in transition against a Celtics team that is excellent defensively on the fastbreak — ranking fifth in Points Per Play at 117.3 — but may not give 100% effort defensively.
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Celtics-Raptors Pick

There are a few ways I’ll be playing this game. One is the third quarter total over, which is mostly a trends play. Both teams are 20-3 to the over in the third quarter this season, so I’ll be playing the over pre-game and relying on the two teams to do what they’ve done all year — score a ton of points out of halftime.

Another trend I came across when tinkering with BetLabs is related to this road spot for Boston. Fading teams on a back-to-back in Toronto is 97-70-3 ATS (58.1%) with a 13.4% ROI. If you add teams in the same spot, teams that won their previous game, the sample size shrinks, but the record improves to 24-14 (63.2%) with a 24.3% ROI.

Not only is this a letdown spot for the Celtics after an intense win in Brooklyn, but the historical trends don’t favor them either. I’ll be looking to bet the Raptors.

I’ll also look at Siakam’s assists. Since Toronto’s success has been correlated with his playmaking this season, I’ll parlay his assists over 4.5 with Toronto +1.

If you want to play it a little safer, you can just take the plus-one by itself, but from an ROI standpoint, the parlay makes the most sense and is way more fun.

Pick: Raptors Moneyline for one unit (-102) and a half unit on Siakam Over 4.5 assists parlayed with Raptors +1.
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College Football Playoff: National Title Odds for Georgia, Michigan, TCU, Ohio State

A close-up photo of the College Football Playoff National Championship trophy.

The College Football Playoff field was officially announced on Sunday, with the Georgia Bulldogs, Michigan Wolverines, TCU Horned Frogs and Ohio State Buckeyes vying for the national title for the 2022 college football season.

With Georgia, Michigan, TCU and Ohio State officially in the College Football Playoff, here are the national title odds for all four teams (via FanDuel).

College Football National Title Odds for All Four Teams in the Playoff

(1) Georgia: -135

Pick: Georgia

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(2) Michigan: +280

Pick: Michigan

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(3) TCU: +1800

Pick: TCU

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(4) Ohio State: +400

Pick: Ohio State

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Georgia and Ohio State will square off on New Year’s Eve in the Peach Bowl in one half of the College Football Playoff semifinals, while Michigan and TCU will play in the Fiesta Bowl on that same Saturday night.

The other team that still appeared to be in the running heading into Sunday morning was the Alabama Crimson Tide, who some argued could make their way in after TCU lost the Big 12 Championship to Kansas State on Saturday.

Of course, the door was open for any such discussion — and for Ohio State sneaking into the Playoff — after the USC Trojans lost to the Utah Utes in Friday night’s Pac-12 Championship.

After all that commotion, however, there were just four: Georgia, Michigan, TCU and Ohio State. May the best team win.

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NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Golden Knights vs. Bruins (December 5)

nhl-odds-preview-prediction-golden-knights-vs-bruins-december-5

Golden Knights vs. Bruins Odds

Las Vegas Golden Knights +135
Boston Bruins -160
Over/Under 6.5
Time 7 p.m. ET
TV TVAS
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

The Boston Bruins continue to impress, especially on home ice. They extended their home winning streak to 14 games with their win against the Avalanche on Saturday night. This team doesn’t have many flaws and their consistency on both sides of the puck has been unlike anything I have seen in a long time.

This won’t be an easy home game for the Bruins. The Las Vegas Golden Knights come to town playing good hockey, but could be missing two of their most important players in Jack Eichel and Alex Pietrangelo.

I bet against the Bruins on home ice in their past game and have learned from my mistake. This team is unreal.

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Las Vegas Golden Knights

The Golden Knights are set to play their fourth and final game of this road trip. They’re 2-1-0 thus far and hoping to end the trip on a high note. Of course, this is far and away going to be their toughest test of both the road trip and the season. Vegas has had a lot of success on the road this season and is 11-2-1 away from home.

A large part of Vegas’ success this season is thanks to the play of rookie goaltender Logan Thompson, who is an early leader for the Calder trophy. Thompson is boasting a 12-5-0 record with a .920 save percentage and 2.54 goals against average.  As a team, the Golden Knights have been very strong on their own end this season, but not in their previous five games. In that span, they have allowed 16 goals, which is uncharacteristic since they are only averaging 2.62 goals against per game.

The only area of concern in Vegas’ defensive game is the penalty kill, which ranks 24th in the league with a 74.2% success rate. Special teams will most likely be the biggest difference in this game, so the Golden Knights will have to be extra disciplined.
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Boston Bruins

The Boston Bruins are simply incredible and it’s hard to find many flaws with this team.

This will be the Bruins fourth straight home game and they’ve outscored their opponents 11-4 in the first three of those games. One of the most impressive aspects of this Bruins team has been their consistency on the man advantage. They have the second-best power play in the league (29.6%) and have scored a goal on the man advantage in nine straight games.

David Pastrnak has been on fire lately, recording points in 10 of his past 11 games with 15 overall (8G, 7A) in that span. He is carrying the Bruins offense, which is the best in the NHL and scoring 4.00 goals on 34.5 shots on goal per game. The Bruins are a force offensively, but their defense and goaltending have also been superb. In my mind, that’s the reason they are having so much success.

The Bruins are the best team in the league at limiting their opponents chances and they also happen to have a great goaltending tandem in Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman. Boston hasn’t announced who is starting this game, but either choice is a good one.

This team is rolling right now and I don’t know who will take them down at TD Garden.
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Golden Knights vs. Bruins Pick

The Golden Knights have been a fantastic hockey team this season, but I can’t keep doubting the Bruins on home ice. I keep thinking Boston is due for a loss and the Bruins continue to make me regret my thought process.

The stats speak for themself. The Bruins are scoring 4.00 goals at home and only allowing 1.57, they are absolutely dominant. On that note, the Golden Knights have also been traveling all week, so their legs might not be as fresh as they typically would be. Meanwhile, the Bruins have been at home for the past week.

Logan Thompson has been solid in goal for the Golden Knights, but I’d take Linus Ullmark over anyone at the moment.

The Bruins are legit and I think they will once again win at home, and do so in regulation.

Pick: Boston Bruins 3-way (-105)

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NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Coyotes vs. Flames (December 5)

nhl-odds-preview-prediction-coyotes-vs-flames-december-5

Coyotes vs. Flames Odds

Coyotes Odds +255
Flames Odds -320
Over/Under 6 (-110/-110)
Time 9 p.m. ET
TV SN1
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

The Calgary Flames will play the fourth game of a five-game homestand when they host the Arizona Coyotes on Monday night.

Calgary is coming off a 5-2 win over the Washington Capitals on Saturday night, but is performing below expectations this season. Their record is 11-10-3 with 25 points in 24 games.

As for the Coyotes, Monday will be Game 13 of their record-tying 14-game road trip. Considering their vagabond schedule and budget-conscious roster, the Coyotes have fared reasonably well so far this season. They’re 7-11-4 with 18 points in 22 games, and are coming off a 3-2 overtime loss in Vancouver.

Here’s a look at the latest on both teams, and your best bet for the game.

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Arizona Coyotes

The Arizona Coyotes were never intended to be good this season. They’re keeping their costs to a minimum, bringing along their young players and setting themselves up to capitalize on the riches that await in the 2023 NHL Draft.

But the players who step on the ice every night are wired to try to win. Arizona is a big team that plays hard, aiming to keep scores close enough to let its skill players capitalize when opportunities arise.

The Coyotes rank last in the league in expected goal share at 5-on-5 (39.51%). And while they have the fifth-lowest scoring average at 2.68 goals per game, their power play is a respectable 22.7%.

They’re outside the bottom 10 defensively, giving up 3.45 goals per game. That’s thanks, in part, to sophomore goaltender Karel Vejmelka, whose 14.2 goals saved above expected are second-best in the NHL, behind only Ilya Sorokin of the New York Islanders.

Vejmelka’s a workhorse, but has recently been resting every third game. So it’s possible the Coyotes could turn to backup Connor Ingram on Monday night. His numbers are weaker — a 1-5-1 record and -3.7 goals saved above expected, to go along with his .889 save percentage.

The current road trip has seemed endless, but the Coyotes have managed to stay healthy. Defenseman Jakob Chychrun has been back in the lineup for the past six games and is playing big minutes while being showcased for a trade that Arizona is hoping will deliver a big return.

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Calgary Flames

After winning five of their first six games, the road has gotten rocky for the Calgary Flames. They’re 6-9-3 since October 29, despite this season’s 5-on-5 expected goals share of 53.39%, which is sixth-best in the NHL.

Of course, the Flames also underwent some major offseason renovations up front, saying goodbye to Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk and hello to Nazem Kadri and Jonathan Huberdeau.

Huberdeau’s production has slipped from last season, and Kadri has had trouble delivering reliable two-way play. In fact, he’s a team-worst minus-six through 24 games. The Flames have gone from being elite on both sides of the puck last season to just okay this year. And they haven’t gotten the same Vezina-quality goaltending from Jacob Markstrom, who’s sitting at -0.1 goals saved above expected.

But like last season, the Flames are pretty healthy. The only significant absence is Oliver Kylington, who is away from the team for personal reasons.

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Coyotes vs. Flames Pick

Sunday was a day off for both teams, so there are no early updates on lineups or starting goaltenders. Dan Vladar stepped in to earn the win for the Flames on Saturday and Vejmelka could be due for a rest.

The Flames have a chance to build off their decisive win over Washington on Saturday night, which saw their slumbering offense perk up for the second time in three games. Calgary matches up well against Arizona as the Flames won all three meetings last season by multiple goals.

At -320, there isn’t much incentive to back the Flames on the moneyline.

In this situation, Calgary’s puck line bears consideration. At -122, the oddsmakers at FanDuel are giving the Flames a 54.95% implied probability of winning by two goals or more.

That works.

Pick: Flames -1.5 | Play to -135

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NFL Odds for All 13 Week 14 Games

nfl odds-week 14-buccaneers vs 49ers

NFL Week 14 Odds

Click on a game to skip ahead.

LAR vs. LV
HOU vs. DAL
CLE vs. CIN
NYJ vs. BUF
PHI vs. NYG
JAC vs. TEN
MIN vs. DET
BAL vs. PIT
KC vs. DEN
CAR vs. SEA
TB vs. SF
MIA vs. LAC
NE vs. ARI

All odds as of 7:40 p.m. ET on Sunday night.

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Raiders vs.

Rams

Raiders Odds -4.5
Rams Odds +4.5
Moneyline -220 / +180
Over/Under 43.5
Time Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV Amazon Prime Video
Odds via FanDuel. For the latest NFL odds, click here.

The Raiders held off the Chargers and will now look to beat Los Angeles’ neighbors on Thursday night. The Rams looked better than expected against the Seahawks, but they ultimately fell short. Neither team is going to be playing past Week 18.

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Texans vs.

Cowboys

Texans Odds +15.5
Cowboys Odds -15.5
Moneyline +750 / -1200
Over/Under 45.5
Time Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV FOX
Odds via FanDuel. For the latest NFL odds, click here.

This line was released before the Cowboys faced the Colts on Sunday Night Football. The Texans defense played well against Deshaun Watson, but its offense and special teams gave up three touchdowns.

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Browns vs.

Bengals

Browns Odds +4.5
Bengals Odds -4.5
Moneyline +172 / -205
Over/Under 49.5
Time Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV CBS
Odds via FanDuel. For the latest NFL odds, click here.

While the Bengals impressively beat the Chiefs at home, the Browns offense was uninspiring against the Texans. Deshaun Watson looked very rusty, as Cleveland scored three touchdowns on defense and special teams combined.

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Jets vs.

Bills

Jets Odds +9.5
Bills Odds -9.5
Moneyline +385 / -500
Over/Under 45.5
Time Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV CBS
Odds via FanDuel. For the latest NFL odds, click here.

The Jets looked for real in Week 13 despite losing to the Vikings. They face a tough test against the Bills, who lead the AFC East and will be coming in with extra rest after beating New England last Thursday night.

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Eagles vs.

Giants

Eagles Odds -6.5
Giants Odds +6.5
Moneyline -300 / +245
Over/Under 44.5
Time Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV FOX
Odds via FanDuel. For the latest NFL odds, click here.

The Eagles impressively handled the Titans, while the Giants could only tie the Commanders. Philadelphia got back on track after a couple weeks of uninspiring performances, with A.J. Brown having a #RevengeGame to remember.

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Jaguars vs.

Titans

Jaguars Odds +3.5
Titans Odds -3.5
Moneyline +156 / -186
Over/Under 42.5
Time Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV CBS
Odds via FanDuel. For the latest NFL odds, click here.

What a matchup for the Titans to bounce back with. The Jaguars are spiraling downward quickly. Tennessee is in no danger of losing the AFC South, but it will want to get going again after handily losing to the Eagles.

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Vikings vs.

Lions

Vikings Odds -2.5
Lions Odds +2.5
Moneyline -120 / +102
Over/Under 52
Time Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV FOX
Odds via FanDuel. For the latest NFL odds, click here.

The Vikings are on the verge of clinching the NFC North. Both teams will be coming off wins, with Minnesota holding off the Jets and Detroit blowing out the Jaguars.

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Ravens vs.

Steelers

Ravens Odds -4.5
Steelers Odds +4.5
Moneyline -190 / +160
Over/Under 40.5
Time Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV CBS
Odds via FanDuel. For the latest NFL odds, click here.

Lamar Jackson left the Ravens’ Week 13 win, and John Harbaugh said the quarterback’s injury is a matter of days and weeks instead of the rest of the season. His status for this game is up in the air, though.

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Chiefs vs.

Broncos

Chiefs Odds -8.5
Broncos Odds +8.5
Moneyline -400 / +315
Over/Under 42.5
Time Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
TV CBS
Odds via FanDuel. For the latest NFL odds, click here.

Both of these teams will be coming off a loss, although the Chiefs will no doubt feel better about themselves. Kansas City lost just its fourth game of the season, while Denver’s nightmare season continued by scoring nine points in a loss to the Ravens.

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Panthers vs.

Seahawks

Panthers Odds +5.5
Seahawks Odds -5.5
Moneyline +210 / -255
Over/Under 43.5
Time Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV FOX
Odds via FanDuel. For the latest NFL odds, click here.

The Panthers had their bye week in Week 13, while the Seahawks came from behind to beat the Rams in Los Angeles. Kenneth Walker left the game early for Seattle, but both D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett had more than 100 receiving yards.

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Buccaneers vs.

49ers

Buccaneers Odds +6.5
49ers Odds -6.5
Moneyline +225 / -275
Over/Under 41.5
Time Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV FOX
Odds via FanDuel. For the latest NFL odds, click here.

This line was released before the Buccaneers’ Monday Night Football game against the Saints. Jimmy Garoppolo left the 49ers’ win over the Dolphins early, but Brock Purdy looked more than capable.

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Dolphins vs.

Chargers

Dolphins Odds -1.5
Chargers Odds +1.5
Moneyline -120 / +102
Over/Under 51.5
Time Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV NBC
Odds via FanDuel. For the latest NFL odds, click here.

The Chargers couldn’t stop Josh Jacobs on the ground in a Week 13 loss. Miami, meanwhile, lost to a backup quarterback in San Francisco, where it was hounded by a stellar 49ers defensive performance.

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Patriots vs.

Cardinals

Patriots Odds -1.5
Cardinals Odds +1.5
Moneyline -115 / -105
Over/Under 44
Time Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV ESPN
Odds via DraftKings. For the latest NFL odds, click here.

The Cardinals had their bye week in Week 13, while the Patriots suffered a loss to the Bills. New England is .500 and in need of a win to boost its playoff chances.

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Cowboys vs Colts Picks: Our 5 Best Bets for Sunday Night Football

colts vs cowboys picks-odds-best bets-sunday night football

Cowboys vs Colts Odds

Sunday, Dec. 4
8:20 p.m. ET
NBC
Cowboys Odds -10.5
Colts Odds +10.5
Moneyline -550 / +400
Over/Under 44.5
Odds via BetMGM.

Finding a Colts vs. Cowboys pick shouldn’t be too difficult when looking at these teams’ records. Our staff of betting analysts have dug a little deeper into this matchup to find value in all markets.

Keep reading for picks on a side, the total and three player props.

Cowboys vs Colts Picks

Click on a pick to skip ahead
Colts +10.5
Under 44.5
Matt Ryan Passing Yards
Dalton Schultz Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Dak Prescott Pass Attempts

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Cowboys

vs.

Colts

Pick
Colts +10.5
Best Book
Time
8:20 p.m. ET

Nick Giffen: Believe it or not, the Colts have been a pretty solid team with Matt Ryan under center when he doesn’t turn the ball over.

In the four games when he has avoided multiple turnovers, the Colts are 3-1 and outscored their opponents by 3.5 points per game. And that’s come against a pretty difficult schedule as well, with a strength of schedule averaging 53.8% on a 0-100% scale.

Since Jeff Saturday took over as head coach, the Colts have committed to the run more. They’ve run on 44.3% of offensive snaps compared to 35.5% under Frank Reich. That’s also reduced the overall number of plays in the game by three per game.

This commitment to the run should help reduce Ryan’s turnover projection, and indeed that’s been the case. He has just two turnovers in the three games since Saturday took charge.

The Colts have only two double-digit losses this year. The first was in Ryan’s only game with three or more turnovers. The other came with Sam Ehlinger under center.

In representative samples with Dak Prescott and Matt Ryan under center this year, the Cowboys have managed an expected score differential only 0.6 points better than the Colts against similarly difficult schedules. The difference? The Cowboys have been much more lucky in converting those to points in large part thanks to a 40-3 blowout win over the Vikings.

Expect the Colts to keep the ball on the ground, where Dallas is a little weaker defensively, reduce Ryan’s turnover potential, shorten the game and keep the score tight.

Pick: Colts +10.5

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Cowboys

vs.

Colts

Pick
Under 44.5
Best Book
Time
8:20 p.m. ET

Billy Ward: The string of less-than-compelling primetime games continues on Sunday night, with the Cowboys favored by double-digits over the Colts.

The spread on the Cowboys tells us they should have a lead throughout much of this one. That’s a good spot for the under, since Dallas has the league’s best passing defense, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.

With the Colts a better running team — at least in theory — forcing them to throw the ball should keep scoring down. On the other side of the ball, Dallas should be looking to control the clock once it establishes a solid lead. The Cowboys will likely be able to move the ball on the ground, which should lead to extended drives that chew up the clock.

I’d take this one down to 44 at -110, but I strongly prefer the extra one-half point that some books are offering.

Pick: Under 44.5

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Cowboys

vs.

Colts

Pick
Matt Ryan Under 217.5 Passing Yards
Best Book
Time
8:20 p.m. ET

Ricky Henne: The Colts have a boatload of reasons to keep the ball out of Matt Ryan’s hands.

First off, the Cowboys boast far and away the NFL’s top passing defense. They allow a league-low 177.7 yards per game through the air, and rank first in defensive DVOA (-17.8%) and passing DVOA (-21.7%) per Football Outsiders. Only five quarterbacks have eclipsed the 200-yard threshold against them this season. On the other hand, the Colts rank 31st in passing DVOA (-24.5%) and average 219.1 passing yards per game.

Then there’s the matter of the Cowboys’ ferocious pass rush against the sieve that is Indianapolis’ offensive line. Dallas leads the NFL with 45 sacks, which are six more than any other team. Meanwhile, the Colts give up a league-high 43 sacks, and their 317 sack yards lost are 40 more than anyone else.

If that wasn’t enough, Ryan’s turnover machine. His 10 picks are tied for the second-most in the league despite missing a pair of games. He’s also tied for the most fumbles with a league-leading 13.

Add it all up and the Colts have every reason to limit Ryan’s drop backs and pound it with Jonathan Taylor instead. My slight concern is that the Cowboys, who are double-digit favorites, open such a sizable lead that Indianapolis has no option but to let Ryan rip it. That leaves the door open for the ever-infuriating backdoor cover. I can’t worry about that, though. I’ll never let fear of a bad result get in the way of a good process, and the process here points to the Cowboys bottling up the Colts’ passing attack.

Ryan is averaging just over 211 yards a game under interim coach Jeff Saturday, so I’m willing to bet this down to 211.5.

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Cowboys

vs.

Colts

Pick
Dalton Schultz Anytime Touchdown Scorer +195
Best Book
Time
8:20 p.m. ET

Sam Farley: If you drafted Dalton Schultz in fantasy this season, you’ve probably been mostly disappointed, but that was mostly because of who has thrown him the ball for a large portion of the season.

When Dak Prescott starts, Schultz’s season low in targets is four and his high is nine. The most he saw with Cooper Rush under center was four, and he even saw just one target in a game earlier this season.

Prescott loves finding Schultz as his safety valve. In the past three weeks since the Cowboys’ bye week, Schultz has found the end zone three times.

The Colts are fairly middle of the road against tight ends but with the Prescott-Schultz connection blossoming again, he’s great value to score at +195.

Pick: Dalton Schultz Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+195)

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Cowboys

vs.

Colts

Pick
Dak Prescott Under 31.5 Pass Attempts
Best Book
Time
8:20 p.m. ET

Dylan Wilkerson: The Colts have left a lot to be desired this season. At one point in the preseason, they were the odds-on favorite to win the AFC South, but now they’re 4-7-1 and have an interim head coach. They also benched their starting quarterback, only for him to be reinstated as starter after Frank Reich was fired.

All these woes considered, the Colts defense has been the shining star of this squad. That unit is allowing fewer than 200 pass yards per game, and it seems this passing defense is being respected. Teams are throwing the ball 29.5 times on average against the Colts, and there have only been four games this season where the Colts have allowed 32 or more pass attempts.

Dak Prescott is averaging 30.3 pass attempts per game, but this is skewed by a 46-pass-attempt game in overtime against the Packers. Prescott has thrown fewer than 32 times in every other game he has played this season.

The Cowboys are 10.5-point favorites for this game, so you’d expect them to play with a lead and focus on running the ball for most of the game. Also, with Prescott having already been injured this season, Dallas will want to play it safe with him if it gets out to an early lead.

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Zaire Franklin Player Props: Expert Bet for Colts vs Cowboys

cowboys vs colts-nfl week 13-picks-predictions-lines-zaire franklin-2022

PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NFL plays of the day and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

Zaire Franklin Tackles and Assists

Prop Zaire Franklin Over 9.5 Tackles and Assists (-128)
Matchup Colts vs. Cowboys
Time 8:20 p.m. ET
Best Book FanDuel | Playable to -140

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Franklin not only leads the Colts with 121 combined tackles this season, but he’s also second in the NFL, trailing only Seahawks linebacker Jordyn Brooks (122). Franklin has reached double-digit tackles in seven of his 12 games this season.

The Colts zone-heavy defensive scheme has afforded Franklin plenty of tackle opportunities. Shaquille Leonard, who is sidelined with a back injury, was a direct beneficiary before Franklin, compiling 9.3 combined tackles per game over his first four seasons.

Without Leonard, Franklin serves as one of the Colts primary box linebackers, playing alongside Bobby Okereke. The Syracuse product almost never comes off the field and has played all but three defensive snaps this season.

With the Colts struggling to find their footing offensively, I expect Franklin and Indianapolis’ defensive unit to remain on the field for the majority of the game against the Cowboys.

Offensively, Dallas will look to establish its run game with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. That should open up a good amount of tackling opportunities for Franklin.

Since Jeff Saturday took the reigns as Colts interim coach, Franklin is three-for-three to the over on this line, compiling 34 combined tackles. I have him projected at another 11 tonight.
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Cowboys vs Colts Odds: Sunday Night Football Prediction Fades Indy

cowboys vs colts-sunday night football-odds-prediction

Cowboys vs Colts Odds

Sunday, Dec. 4
8:20 p.m. ET
NBC
Cowboys Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-10.5
-108
44.5
-110o / -110u
 -520
Colts Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+10.5
-112
44.5
-110o / -110u
 +400
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Two teams headed in opposite directions will meet on Sunday Night Football, which we’re going to find a Colts vs. Cowboys pick for.

On paper, this game should be straightforward. It’s a clear mismatch between one contender and disappointing team.

Despite an impressive 8-3 record, the Cowboys sit two games back of the Eagles in the NFC East because of a head-to-head loss earlier this season. As things stand, the Cowboys are the top wild-card team in the NFC.

If Dallas has any dreams of catching Philadelphia in the division, it can’t afford to drop any of its next three games against the AFC South — Colts, Texans and Jaguars (on the road) — ahead of a Week 16 showdown in Arlington against Philadelphia.

Meanwhile, the 4-7-1 Colts are getting close to being officially eliminated from playoff contention. If they can somehow pull off the upset tonight, they’d have around a 10% chance of making the playoffs. A loss would essentially be the final nail in the coffin of a very disappointing 2022 campaign.

Despite the difference in how good these teams are, we have a point spread. Can Dallas cover as a double-digit home favorite, or will Indy keep this within single digits? Let’s take a closer look.

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Cowboys vs. Colts Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Cowboys and Colts match up statistically:

Colts vs. Cowboys DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 31 1
Pass DVOA 31 1
Rush DVOA 32 10
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 15 13
Pass DVOA 16 13
Rush DVOA 6 11

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Since Dak Prescott returned in Week 7, the Dallas offense has fired on all cylinders, ranking third in EPA per Play. Over that stretch, only Tua Tagovailoa has a higher EPA+CPOE Composite than Prescott, who leads all quarterbacks with a 57.2% Success Rate since returning.

In fairness, the competition hasn’t been the greatest with Prescott getting to face the Lions, Bears, Packers, Vikings and Giants. From a DVOA perspective, all five rank in the bottom third of the league in Total Defense.

The Colts defense, which ranks eighth in EPA per Play, will provide the toughest test for Prescott since coming back from injury. The Dallas offense may find it a bit more difficult to move the ball, but it still should find enough success against a defense that won’t have the services of Pro Bowl nickel corner Kenny Moore, who will be especially missed for his prowess against the run.

Bet Sunday Night Football at FanDuel

Colts +10.5

Colts -10.5

While the Colts’ defense should put up a decent fight, the biggest mismatch will come with Matt Ryan under center against an elite Dallas defense that enters Week 13 ranked first in DVOA and second in EPA per play.

Last season, the Cowboys defense really benefited from turnovers, which inflated their metrics across the board. That’s not the case this season. If you remove turnovers, they still rank fourth in EPA per Play.

I’m just not sure how the statuesque Ryan will hold up against the ferocious Dallas pass rush that leads the league in pressure rate. It doesn’t help that starting right tackle Braden Smith will not suit up, which means a rookie left tackle and Matt Pryor — who PFF grades as the 75th of 76 offensive tackles — will try to hold back DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons.

When under pressure this season, Ryan has only one big time throw compared to 12 turnover worthy plays — despite the fourth-lowest average depth of target among 35 quarterbacks with at least 50 drop backs under pressure. That spells trouble against this Dallas feast unit.

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Betting Picks

Not only is this a brutal matchup for the Indianapolis offense, it’s also a tough spot for a Colts that is hitting the road on a short week after losing on Monday night. Meanwhile, the Cowboys stayed home following a mini-bye week after playing on Thanksgiving, which gave them four-plus additional days of preparation and rest.

It’s tough to see this Colts offense moving the ball unless Jonathan Taylor can break a few runs. It’s not like Ryan has shown the ability (nor will have the time) to exploit an aggressive Dallas secondary with explosive plays downfield.

I could only back Dallas here, but I don’t show enough value on my projections. It’s also tough to lay double digits in the NFL this season in a potentially reduced-scoring environment.

The Cowboys will warrant a look live if they get down early, but I believe the best pregame bet is to take the Colts team total under. I just don’t see a path to consistent offense and we should ultimately get one or two Matt Ryan turnovers under pressure.

Pick: Colts Team Total Under 16.5

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NFL Live Betting Week 13: How We Live Bet Colts-Cowboys on Sunday Night Football

CeeDee Lamb scores a TD for the Cowboys as Colts defensive back Isaiah Rodgers attempts to stop him at the goal line but fails.

Week 13 is here, and with it came some solid live-betting opportunities. There were 12 games in the two main windows, plus Sunday Night Football.

As usual, we’ve been picking a game in each time slot to focus on, so we can be sure to get the best lines available. We’re down to Colts-Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. Here’s how we’re live betting that one, plus how we’ve approached the Sunday slate so far.

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The Live Bets to Watch For on Sunday Night Football

Any Excuse For Unders (BET MADE)

We had what would seem to be another rough primetime game tonight, with the Cowboys double-digit favorites over the Colts. This ond has a pregame total of 44.5, which felt optimistic considering the teams at play.

Dallas has the league’s top overall defense by DVOA, while the Colts offense ranks 31st. Indy is better on defense, too, coming in at 13th. With the Cowboys offense ranking 15th, it’s not exactly a smash spot for them, either.

Therefore, we were hoping for a few quick or fluky early scores. If this total got driven up much from the opening mark, it was going to be an excellent under spot. Ideally, those scores would come from the Cowboys. With the best pass defense in the league but “only” the 10th-ranked run defense, forcing the Colts to pass should further suppress scoring.

After the Cowboys’ second touchdown, this total moved all the way to 54.5. The combination of the inflated total and the Cowboys lead is more than enough for us here, so we’ll take the live under of 54.5 at -110 on FanDuel.

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The Live Bets We’ve Already Made Sunday

Second Half Unders — The Philly Special (LIVE BET MADE)

This is a bet we’ve been making all year. The Eagles play very aggressively early in games as they try to build a lead. Once they get there, they shift to a running team and kill as much clock as possible.

However, things have been getting shakier the past few weeks. Philadelphia hasn’t been blowing their opponents out of the water the way they did early in the season. They were moderate pregame favorites against the Titans in Week 13, though, so it was a strong possibility in this one, though.

Philadelphia is strong against the pass, and Tennessee is strong against the run defensively. They’re two of the most heavily split defenses in terms of DVOA against run/pass.

Which brought us to the scenario we’re usually looking for: A commanding Eagles lead. With the Eagles going up 11 at half — and the total up to 54.5 — this one was the exact situation we were looking for. We’ll take the under, even with the Titans getting the ball to start the third quarter. Eleven points is enough of a margin of safety. The best line is at FanDuel, where under 54.5 was -114.

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Chargers-Raiders: Watch The Game Flow (PASS)

The Chargers-Raiders game seemed like our favorite type to live bet on  — a game that could play much faster or slower than expected, depending on which team was in the lead.

That’s hard for sportsbooks’ live betting algorithms to account for. Those usually take into account the score — both total points and amount of the lead — but don’t adjust with a certain team leading or trailing. (As far as we can tell, at least. How these lines are built obviously isn’t public knowledge.)

Therefore, we should have had a solid edge depending on which way it goes. Notably, though, a close game doesn’t produce much of an edge in either direction.

If the underdog Chargers took a significant lead, this was an under spot. Los Angeles plays significantly slower with a lead than in all other scenarios. They rank 15th in pace of play when up by seven or more, but second overall and first in situation neutral pace.

Remember, the pregame total — 49.5 — largely accounted for both teams’ overall pace. So even though the Chargers’ pace with a lead is in the top half of the league, it’s considerably slower than the expected pace overall. The Raiders contribute a bit here, too. They play at the 25th-fastest pace when trailing, compared to 22nd in close games and 21st overall.

Alternatively, this was a tremendous over spot if the Raiders got ahead by seven or more. They have the fourth-fastest pace of play when leading (though there’s some sample size issues there).

Even if we don’t believe the Raiders splits, the Chargers play fast from behind, with a top-three pace. This also set up nicely from a matchup perspective, with the Raiders having the league’s worst pass defense by DVOA, and the Chargers bottom-three in rushing.

As always, we were hoping for a better number than the 49.5 at open, but we have some flexibility here. We could also consider betting on the Chargers spread if it gets out of hand — the Raiders’ awful pass defense makes holding leads a challenge.

While there might have been a few fleeting moments where a live bet might have potentially made sense, there weren’t any real scenarios that offered value by the game script. Las Vegas did take a double-digit lead late in the third, but by then, the line was between 57 and 58. That’s too high for me to suggest a live over.

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How We Approach Live Betting in General

The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.

The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points.

Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.

Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than

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Pacers vs. Trail Blazers NBA Odds, Picks: Multiple Ways to Bet This Game

Pacers vs. Trail Blazers Odds

Pacers Odds +2.5
Trail Blazers Odds -2.5
Over/Under 232 (-110/-110)
Time 9 p.m. ET
TV NBA TV
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Both these teams went 13-9 against the spread in their first 22 games (the Blazers covered and won their 23rd game as this article was being written). Meanwhile, neither team has shown any real consistency in terms of over/under profitability, with the Pacers an even 11-11, and the Blazers 10-12-1 slightly in favor of the under.

These teams are actually a bit of a funhouse mirror of each other. Both teams have surprised folks with their early win-loss record, but have done so with very conflicting styles. The Pacers rank eighth in the Association in points per game and play at the second-fastest pace. The Blazers, on the other hand, play at the third-slowest pace, and partly as a result, allow the 11th-fewest points per game.

Styles make fights as they say, so let’s take a deeper look at each of these sides.
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Indiana Pacers

The Pacers have looked a bit off over the past two games, and it should come as no surprise given that their talisman isn’t looking quite right.

After a 20-game stretch to start the season that got him into the Most Improved Player conversation, Tyrese Haliburton has had arguably his worst two games of the season and is questionable for Sunday with a groin injury. The young guard totaled just 23 points and 14 assists over the past two games, barely over his season per-game averages. The Pacers lost both games by at least 20 — their two worst defeats of the season.

If Haliburton is out Sunday, unless the line takes a massive 4-5-point swing, I’m going to be looking to play the Blazers. There are certain players whose impact is a little greater than Vegas tends to adjust for (note the slip in the Jazz‘s production since Mike Conley went out with injury) and Haliburton is one. He drives success for the Pacers.

Haliburton has yet to miss a game this season, but if he does miss this one, T.J. McConnell will take his place. If this is the case, I will be looking at the game under, as well as the Pacers team total under. Haliburton takes the most shots per game of any Pacer, and Bennedict Mathurin will be the one to watch for props if Haliburton is out.

It’s hard to know the exact lines Vegas will offer, but I’d be looking at Mathurin for 25+ points, as well as To Lead the Game in Points. The Blazers have a strong defense, but will be on the second night of a back to back, and Anfernee Simons can be picked on if the Pacers are looking to do so.
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Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers are still without Damian Lillard, but they have managed to stay afloat in the 12 games (5-7) he’s missed this season.

Portland has also played one of the hardest schedules so far, and that’s adjusted for several key factors:

Simons has been key in picking up the offensive slack, averaging 29 points and nearly six assists per game in the 10 games in which he played but Lillard didn’t (they were both out for two games this season). Simons peaked most recently with a career-high 45 points in Portland’s win over the Jazz.

The Blazers won’t need that many points from Simons if Haliburton is out, but this is an opponent that pushes the pace and should provide plenty of possessions for Simons and the rest of the Blazers to do well in terms of their prop overs.
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Pacers-Trail Blazers Pick

A lot of the preview is centered around Haliburton missing this game. If he does play, I still like a few of these plays, but I’ll note which are tied to Haliburton’s status.

Pick: Indiana team total under 114.5 (reliant on Haliburton out, would take to 109.5 if so)
Simons over 33.5 points + rebounds + assists
Blazers -3.5 (reliant on Haliburton out, would take to -6.5 if so)
Lean: Under 232.5 (reliant on Haliburton out, would take to 229.5 if so)
Simons over 4.5 threes (plus money)
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Cowboys vs Colts Player Props: Dalton Schultz, Parris Campbell Among Anytime Touchdown Picks

cowboys vs colts-player props-dalton schultz-parris campbell

Follow Gilles Gallant in the Action App to get all his picks during the NFL season, ranging from Anytime Touchdowns to exotics props and more.

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Dalton Schultz
ATD +195 (FanDuel)

We’re going with a reliable target for Dak Prescott.

Schultz leads the Cowboys with 12 red-zone targets. He also has 23 targets and three touchdowns in the four games since Prescott returned.

The Colts have given up five touchdowns to tight end this season. That puts Indianapolis in the bottom five in the NFL.

Schultz has scored 10 of his 15 career touchdowns at home, and I’m backing him to continue that trend.

Pick: Dalton Schultz Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+195)

Bet This Prop Instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip!

Parris Campbell
ATD +370 (DraftKings)

Campbell is second on the Colts in touchdown catches and red-zone targets. I took him last week, and it didn’t hit at +340. We’re getting a better number this time around.

All three of Campbell’s touchdowns this season have come with Matt Ryan under center.

The Cowboys have given up 11 passing touchdowns to wide receivers this season. That’s easily the most of any opposing positional group.

I like Michael Pittman Jr. to score, as well, but I prefer Campbell because he won’t see as much of Trevon Diggs.

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2022 College Football Postseason Roster Updates: Bowl Game Opt-Outs, Transfer Portal, Player Injuries & More

2022-college football-postseason-roster-updates-tracker-bowl game-opt outs-transfer portal-player injuries-coaching changes-more-cade mcnamra-michigan

A blitzkrieg of college football postseason news will be jammed into our social media timelines while an open betting market exists for quick action.

Coaching changes, transfer portal announcements and bowl season converge onto our favorite sport all at once — enough to overwhelm any person seeking wagers. Enter our forum here as a “Buy, Sell or Hold” hub for all bowl-bound college football teams.

This column will remain live for days, updating with critical changes among coaching ranks and monitoring the transfer portal for news that will move betting lines. The “stock” tag for each team will represent how the betting market is expected to react to a college football stock.

For instance, if Alabama quarterback Bryce Young opts out of bowl season, then a “Sell” tag is in order when the Crimson Tide play without their Heisman Trophy winner. Conversely, UConn made major strides this season with hopes on a bowl game, making their entry a “Buy” in the upcoming bowl market.

Keep this page bookmarked, and refresh it regularly as transfer portal, injury, coaching and bowl game news hits the hot wire.

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Georgia Bulldogs

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

WR Ladd McConkey did not finish the SEC Championship with a knee injury.

Additional News & Notes

Kirby Smart owns a 6-2 ATS record in postseason games.

Stock: Hold

Ohio State Buckeyes

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

None.

Stock: Hold

Michigan Wolverines

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

QB Cade McNamara.

Player Injuries

DL Mazi Smith was arrested for felony gun charges but still played in the Big Ten Championship. RB Blake Corum underwent season-ending knee injury.

Additional News & Notes

Michigan projects as a 9-point favorite over TCU. Edge rushers Eyabi Okie and are Mike Morris injured. Jim Harbaugh has gone 3-5 ATS in bowl games in his career.

Stock: Hold

TCU Horned Frogs

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

None.

Stock: Hold

Utah Utes

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

RB Tavion Thomas

Transfer Portal Updates

DB Malone Mataele.

Player Injuries

TE Dalton Kincaid played in the Pac-12 Championship with noticeable pain.

Additional News & Notes

Utah won the Pac-12 Championship in dominant fashion. The Utes covered four of their final five games. They lost the Rose Bowl last year to Ohio State in a thriller, as Kyle Whittingham has gone 9-5 ATS in bowls.

Stock: Buy

Penn State Nittany Lions

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

CB Joey Porter Jr.

Transfer Portal Updates

RB Caziah Holmes, DL Ken Talley, QB Christian Veilleux, DL Rodney McGraw

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

James Franklin has gone 6-4 ATS in bowl games. OL Olumuyiwa Fashanu would have been a potential opt-out to watch, but he announced he is returning to Penn State in 2023.

Stock: Hold

USC Trojans

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

C Brett Neilon was carted off in the Pac-12 Championship.

Additional News & Notes

USC lost the Pac-12 Championship with Caleb Williams playing through an injury. Early reports indicate issues with his hamstring.

Stock: Sell

Tulane Green Wave

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

WR Dea Dea McDougle is no longer with the team.

Additional News & Notes

Tulane won and covered the AAC Championship game against UCF. Willie Fritz has gone 12-8 ATS in bowl games and was the most profitable coach in college football in 2022 with a 11-2 ATS record.

Stock: Buy

Kansas State Wildcats

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

QB Adrian Martinez was seen without a boot but did not play Big 12 Championship.

Additional News & Notes

Chris Klieman, who led the Wildcats to a Big 12 title, has gone 12-6-1 ATS in bowl games in his career.

Stock: Hold

Alabama Crimson Tide

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

WR Traeshon Holden, WR Christian Leary, RB Trey Sanders, DB Khyree Jackson, OL Damieon George, DL Braylen Ingraham.

Player Injuries

WR Jojo Earle left the Iron Bowl against Auburn game in the second quarter.

Additional News & Notes

Although Alabama won four of its final five games, motivation will completely hinge on the participation of its blue-chip talent in the bowl game. Potential opt-outs include QB Bryce Young, DE Will Anderson, S Jordan Battle, S Brian Branch, CB Malachi Moore and RB Jahmyr Gibbs.

Stock: Hold

Clemson Tigers

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

WR Dacari Collins, LB Sergio Allen.

Player Injuries

WR Beaux Collins was seen in a sling and will need surgery.

Additional News & Notes

Dabo Swinney has a 12-6 ATS record in bowl games. Possible opt-outs include DL Myles Murphy, DL Bryan Bresee and DL Trenton Simpson.

Stock: Hold

Tennessee Volunteers

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

RB Lyn-J Dixon, WR Jimmy Calloway.

Player Injuries

QB Hendon Hooker is out for the season with a torn ACL.

Additional News & Notes

Josh Heupel lost his offensive coordinator, Alex Golesh, to South Florida, where he will serve as the head coach. WR Jalin Hyatt is a possible opt-out candidate. With Hendon Hooker out, Joe Milton went just 11-of-21 for 147 passing yards in a 56-point route of Vanderbilt.

Stock: Sell

LSU Tigers

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

LB Phillip Webb.

Player Injuries

QB Jayden Daniels in a boot Nov. 27 and was replaced in the SEC Championship after limping on the field. WR Kyren Lacy left the Texas A&M game with an injury in the third quarter.

Additional News & Notes

Brian Kelly has gone 5-9 against the spread in bowl games.

Stock: Hold

Purdue Boilermakers

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

Jeff Brohm owns a 4-2 ATS record in bowl games.

Stock: Buy

Illinois Fighting Illini

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

DB DD Snyder.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

Bret Bielema has gone 4-5 in bowls. Illinois blew out Northwestern in the final game to stop a three-game losing streak.

Stock: Hold

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

WR Rara Thomas, RB Ke’Travion Hargrove.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

Mike Leach has gone 3-9 ATS in postseason games.

Stock: Hold

Kentucky Wildcats

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

RB Kavosiey Smoke.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

All but one game on Kentucky’s schedule went under the total. QB Will Levis remains a potential opt-out for the Wildcats’ bowl game.

Stock: Hold

Iowa Hawkeyes

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

WR Keagan Johnson, QB Alex Padilla, RB Gavin Williams, OL Josh Volk, WR Arland Bruce IV.

Player Injuries

QB Spencer Petras had his arm in a sling in the second half against Nebraska.

Additional News & Notes

Iowa had won four straight until a blowout loss to Nebraska, costing the Hawkeyes a chance at the Big Ten Championship. Kirk Ferentz is 8-5-1 ATS in bowl games.

Stock: Hold

Ohio Bobcats

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

None.

Stock: Hold

Wyoming Cowboys

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

RB Titus Swen.

Player Injuries

WR Joshua Cobbs was carted off in the fourth quarter.

Additional News & Notes

Wyoming ended the season with five straight unders. Craig Bohl has gone 11-3 ATS in bowl games.

Stock: Buy

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

QB Drew Pyne, DL Jacob Lacey.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

TE Michael Mayer is a potential opt-out to watch.

Stock: Hold

South Carolina Gamecocks

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

DB RJ Roderick.

Player Injuries

WR Josh Vann suffered a non-ACL-related knee sprain.

Additional News & Notes

South Carolina finished the season on a heater, winning outright as a 22.5- and 14-point underdog to Tennessee and Clemson, respectively. Shane Beamer won and covered his first bowl game against North Carolina in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl last season. Possible opt-outs include CB Cam Smith and WR Jaheim Bell.

Stock: Buy

Pittsburgh Panthers

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

Pitt won its final four games and went over the total in five of its final seven games. Pat Narduzzi boasts a 1-4 ATS record in postseason games.

Stock: Hold

UCLA Bruins

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

Chip Kelly owns a 2-2 straight-up record in bowl games.

Stock: Hold

NC State Wolfpack

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

Fourth-string QB Ben Finley played the team’s final two games.

Additional News & Notes

Dave Doeren boasts a 5-2 ATS record in postseason bowl games.

Stock: Hold

Maryland Terrapins

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

None.

Stock: Hold

Washington Huskies

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

RB Emeka Megwa.

Player Injuries

TE Jack Westover took a helmet-to-helmet shot in the third quarter.

Additional News & Notes

QB Michael Penix Jr. has reiterated that he’s not opting out, as he has never played in a bowl.

Stock: Buy

Texas Longhorns

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

QB Hudson Card, OL Andrej Karic, DB JD Coffey, WR Troy Omeire, LB Prince Dorbah, OL Jaylen Garth, EDGE DJ Harris.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

Texas went over the total in four of its final five games. Possible opt-outs include RB Bijan Robinson, RB Roschon Johnson and LB DeMarvion Overshown.

Stock: Hold

Florida State Seminoles

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

DB Sam McCall.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

Florida State ended the season on a hot streak, winning its final five games with four covers. Head coach Mike Norvell has gone 0-4 ATS in post eason games. Possible bowl opt-outs include DL Jared Verse, DL Fabien Lovett and S Jammie Robinson.

Stock: Buy

Oklahoma Sooners

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

WR Theo Wease, LB Joseph Wete.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

None.

Stock: Buy

Syracuse Orange

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

WR Courtney Jackson.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

Syracuse failed to cover in its final five games and needed a Boston College victory to snap a five-game losing streak. Dino Babers has gone 2-0 ATS in bowl games.

Stock: Sell

Minnesota Golden Gophers

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

DB Steven Ortiz.

Player Injuries

QB Athan Kaliakmanis started for Tanner Morgan (head).

Additional News & Notes

Minnesota won four of its final five games. PJ Fleck owns an undefeated 3-0 ATS record in bowl games.

Stock: Buy

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

DB Tavares Elston.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

Texas Tech won and covered the final three games of the season.

Stock: Buy

Ole Miss Rebels

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

DE Demon Clowney, QB Luke Altmyer, WR Dannis Jackson.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

Ole Miss failed to cover five of its final six games on the schedule.

Stock: Sell

Oregon Ducks

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

WR Dont’e Thornton, QB Jay Butterfield, RB Byron Cardwell, LB Adrian Jackson, DE Bradyn Swinson, WR Seven McGee.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

Oregon lost two of its final three games, but Bo Nix’s mobility issues will be resolved by the time the bowl game kicks off. CB Christian Gonzalez remains a potential opt-out candidate.

Stock: Hold

North Carolina Tar Heels

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

RB Devon Lawrence.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

Star WR Josh Downs remains a potential opt-out for North Carolina’s bowl game.

Stock: Hold

Arkansas Razorbacks

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

LB Bumper Pool, WR Jadon Haselwood

Transfer Portal Updates

DB Myles Slusher, QB Malik Hornsby, DB Chase Lowery.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

QB KJ Jefferson is staying for another season, while DB Myles Slusher has quit the team, per Pittman. Strength and conditioning coach Jamil Walker was fired after the Missouri loss with Pittman indicating more staff changes will be made.

Stock: Hold

Kansas Jayhawks

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

DB Jarrett Paul

Player Injuries

WR Lawrence Arnold suffered a leg injury against Kansas State.

Additional News & Notes

Kansas has not been to a bowl since the 2008 Insight Bowl. Lance Leipold owns a 4-1 ATS record in bowl games.

Stock: Buy

Duke Blue Devils

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

Duke won four of its final five games, bringing its total to eight in head coach Mike Elko’s first season.

Stock: Buy

Central Florida Knights

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

LB Terrence Lewis.

Player Injuries

QB John Rhys Plumlee was limited in the AAC Championship game.

Additional News & Notes

Gus Malzahn has gone 3-5 straight up in bowls.

Stock: Hold

Wisconsin Badgers

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

OL Logan Brown, WR Markus Allen, QB Deacon Hill.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

Although interim Jim Leonhard will coach Wisconsin in its bowl game, new head coach Luke Fickell plans to coach in some capacity in preparation for next season.

Stock: Hold

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

Heading into the West Virginia game, QB Spencer Sanders, RB Dominic Richardson, WR Jaden Bray, DE Trace Ford, DE Tyler Lacy, WR Bryson Green, DB Thomas Harper and OL Jason Brooks Jr. were all dealing with injury.

Additional News & Notes

Oklahoma State failed to cover four of its final five games. Mike Gundy owns an 11-5 ATS record in bowls.

Stock: Hold

Georgia Southern Eagles

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

None.

Stock: Buy

Buffalo Bulls

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

RB Al-Jay Henderson suffered a leg injury in the third quarter.

Additional News & Notes

Buffalo qualified for a bowl with a comeback to beat Akron by a point. Buffalo was on a three-game losing streak and did not cover any of its final four games.

Stock: Sell

East Carolina Pirates

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

Mike Houston has a 5-2-1 ATS record in postseason games.

Stock: Hold

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

QB Jarrett Guest started the final regular season game against James Madison.

Additional News & Notes

Jamey Chadwell owns an 0-2 ATS record in bowl games. He has also been rumored for numerous positions, with Liberty being the lead suitor.

Stock: Sell

Utah State Aggies

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

Utah State finished the season going over the total in three straight games.

Stock: Hold

Memphis Tigers

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

DL Maurice White.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

After starting the season with overs in eight of its nine games, Memphis finished with three straight unders.

Stock: Hold

New Mexico State Aggies

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

Jerry Kill has never won a bowl game in five tries as a head coach. New Mexico State was granted a waiver to compete in a bowl as a five-win team after a previous cancellation with San Jose State. This will be only the second bowl game for the Aggies since 1961. Kill owns a lifetime 1-5 ATS record in bowl games.

Stock: Hold

Bowling Green Falcons

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

TE Harold Fannin had his lower legs rolled up on and did not return.

Additional News & Notes

Bowling Green failed to cover three of its final four games, with five of those seven going under the total.

Stock: Sell

San Diego State Aztecs

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

None.

Stock: Buy

Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

MTSU won four of its final five games. Head coach Rick Stockstill owns a 3-6 ATS record in postseason games.

Stock: Hold

Missouri Tigers

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

WR Dominic Lovett, DB DJ Jackson, DL Travion Ford, LB Zach Lovett.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

None.

Stock: Hold

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

Wake Forest won and covered just a single game in its last five contests.

Stock: Sell

Houston Cougars

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

Houston failed to cover four of its final five games, while six of its final seven games went over the total. Dana Holgorsen has gone 2-7 ATS in postseason games.

Stock: Sell

Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

QB Ben Wooldridge is out for season. Chandler Fields started the team’s final game.

Additional News & Notes

None.

Stock: Hold

Air Force Falcons

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

Air Force finished the season hot, winning and covering the final four games on its schedule. Five of its final six games also went under. Head coach Troy Calhoun has gone 7-5 agaibst the spread in postseason games.

Stock: Buy

Baylor Bears

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

QB Kyron Drones, RB Josh Fleeks, S Devin Neal Jr.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

Baylor lost its final three games to Kansas State, TCU and Texas. Head coach Dave Aranda has gone 1-0 ATS in bowl games.

Stock: Hold

South Alabama Jaguars

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

WR Devin Voisin had his arm in a sling in the second half.

Additional News & Notes

None.

Stock: Buy

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

None.

Stock: Hold

Toledo Rockets

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

QB Dequan Finn was limited and in a boot by the third quarter.

Additional News & Notes

Toledo won and covered the MAC Championship. Head coach Jason Candle has gone 1-4 ATS in bowl games.

Stock: Hold

Liberty Flames

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

All three QBs — Charlie Brewer, Johnathan Bennett, Kaidon Salter — played in season finale.

Additional News & Notes

Hugh Freeze has moved on to Auburn, paving the way for interim head coach Josh Aldridge, who has been on staff since 2019.

Stock: Sell

San Jose State Spartans

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

San Jose State struggled with the death of a teammate and failed to cover their final seven games.

Stock: Sell

Eastern Michigan Eagles

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

QB Taylor Powell got the last start of season.

Additional News & Notes

Chris Creighton’s squad went 5-1 in one-possessions games and covered four of its final five games. Creighton jhas also gone 3-1 ATS in postseason games.

Stock: Hold

Connecticut Huskies

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

Jim Mora Jr. boasts an all-time record of 2-2 in bowl games.

Stock: Buy

Marshall Thundering Herd

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

Marshall won its final four games, covering three of its last four. The Thundering Herd went over the total in just three games this season.

Stock: Hold

Boise State Broncos

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

QB Hank Bachmeier.

Player Injuries

RB George Holani has a shoulder injury and was icing it in the third quarter.

Additional News & Notes

Boise State finished the regular season by covering seven of its final eight games.

Stock: Buy

North Texas Mean Green

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

North Texas failed to cover its final three games of the year. Seth Littrell has a 1-4 ATS record in bowl games.

Stock: Sell

Florida Gators

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

OL Josh Braun, LB Diwun Black, DB Kamar Wilcoxson, RB Lorenzo Lingard, WR Trent Whittemore, TE Nick Elksnis.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

Florida lost its final two games against Vanderbilt and Florida State. Billy Napier has gone 1-3 ATS in postseason games, while possible opt-outs include QB Anthony Richardson and OL O’Cyrus Torrence.

Stock: Sell

Oregon State Beavers

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

QB Chance Nolan, DB Ron Hardge.

Player Injuries

RB Damien Martinez left in the third quarter with a leg injury.

Additional News & Notes

None.

Stock: Hold

Southern Miss Golden Eagles

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

Southern Miss covered five of its final six games.

Stock: Hold

Rice Owls

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

Rice lost four of its final five games and has multiple injuries on the quarterback depth chart.

Stock: Sell

Fresno State Bulldogs

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

None.

Stock: Hold

Washington State Cougars

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

Defensive coordinator Brian Ward has taken the same role at Arizona State and is unlikely to coach the bowl for the Cougars.

Stock: Hold

BYU Cougars

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

OL Campbell Barrington.

Player Injuries

QB Jaren Hall left with an ankle injury in the third quarter. WR Keanu Hill was sidelined with an injury in the second half.

Additional News & Notes

BYU won and covered the final three games of the season. Kalani Sitake has gone 2-3 ATS in bowl games for his career.

Stock: Hold

Southern Methodist Mustangs

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

None.

Stock: Hold

Cincinnati Bearcats

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

OL Jake Renfro, DB JQ Hardaway, QB Luther Richesson.

Player Injuries

QB Evan Prater is the starter with Ben Bryant out for season with a foot injury.

Additional News & Notes

Kerry Coombs will serve as interim coach for the bowl game after Luke Fickell took the job at Wisconsin. Coombs lost play-calling duties for the Ohio State defense during the 2021 season.

Stock: Sell

Louisville Cardinals

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

RB Trevion Cooley, RB Jalen Mitchell, DB Derrick Edwards.

Player Injuries

QB Malik Cuningham reaggravated a shoulder injury against Kentucky.

Additional News & Notes

QB Malik Cunningham is a potential opt-out for Louisville’s bowl game.

Stock: Sell

Troy Trojans

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

Troy dominated Coastal Carolina and a limited Grayson McCall in the Sun Belt Championship, setting the stage for its bowl showdown.

Stock: Buy

UTSA Roadrunners

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

RB Brenden Brady was in a sling during the UTEP game.

Additional News & Notes

UTSA won the C-USA Championship and 10 straight games to end the season.

Stock: Hold

UAB Blazers

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

None reported.

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

Trent Dilfer has been named UAB’s head coach for 2023. If Bryant Vincent coaches the bowl game, expect plenty of motivation from the players, as a number of current players sent letters to the administration lobbying for Vincent to become the full-time head coach after serving multiple seasons as offensive coordinator. UAB went over the total in its last four games.

Stock: Buy

Miami RedHawks

Bowl Game Opt-Outs

None reported.

Transfer Portal Updates

QB Brett Gabbert

Player Injuries

None reported.

Additional News & Notes

Chuck Martin owns a 3-0 ATS record in postseason games.

Stock: Hold

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2022 College Football Bowl Game Tracker: Confirmed Matchups & Projected Spreads for All 41 Games

college football-bowl game-tracker-confirmed matchups-brett mcmurphy-sunday-december 4-2022

With the College Football Playoff pairings officially announced, now the real fun starts: Filling out the remaining 39 bowl matchups.

It’s Selection Sunday, when the destinations of all 82 bowl teams will be announced. Once again, we’ll do our best to provide all the breaking news on each of the 41 bowl matchups.

Below are the confirmed matchups for all 41 bowl games, as reported by Brett McMurphy on Sunday.

Each matchup includes the projected point spread for each bowl game based on Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s updated college football betting power ratings.

Additionally, readers can check out our NCAAF picks, live betting odds and futures to get even more insights on their future bets.

Also, don’t forget to follow Brett McMurphy on Twitter for ongoing college football postseason news — and refresh this article frequently on Sunday for real-time updates as news breaks.

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Confirmed Bowl Game Matchups

College Football Playoff Semifinals

  • Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    ⋅
    Atlanta, GA

    Georgia

    -5.5

    Ohio State

  • Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    ⋅
    Glendale, AZ

    Michigan

    -6.5

    TCU

New Year’s Six Bowl Games

  • Rose Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    ⋅
    Pasadena, CA

    Utah

    Penn State

    -1.5

  • Goodyear Cotton Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    ⋅
    Arlington, TX

    Tulane

    USC

    -4.5

  • Allstate Sugar Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    ⋅
    New Orleans, LA

    Kansas State

    Alabama

    -5.5

  • Capital One Orange Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    ⋅
    Miami, FL

    Clemson

    -2.5

    Tennessee

All Other Bowl Games

  • Cheez-It Citrus Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    ⋅
    Orlando, FL

    LSU

    -5

    Purdue

  • ReliaQuest Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    ⋅
    Tampa, FL

    Illinois

    Mississippi State

    -0.5

  • Music City Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    ⋅
    Nashville, TN

    Kentucky

    -0.5

    Iowa

  • Arizona Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    ⋅
    Tucson, AZ

    Ohio

    -1

    Wyoming

  • TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    ⋅
    Jacksonville, FL

    Notre Dame

    -3.5

    South Carolina

  • Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    ⋅
    El Paso, TX

    Pitt

    UCLA

    -2.5

  • Duke’s Mayo Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    ⋅
    Charlotte, NC

    NC State

    Maryland

    -1.5

  • Valero Alamo Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 29
    ⋅
    San Antonio, TX

    Washington

    Texas

    -4.5

  • Cheez-It Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 29
    ⋅
    Orlando, FL

    Florida State

    -1

    Oklahoma

  • Pinstripe Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 29
    ⋅
    Bronx, NY

    Syracuse

    Minnesota

    -6.5

  • TaxAct Texas Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    ⋅
    Houston, TX

    Texas Tech

    -0.5

    Ole Miss

  • Holiday Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    ⋅
    San Diego, CA

    Oregon

    -8

    North Carolina

  • AutoZone Liberty Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    ⋅
    Memphis, TN

    Arkansas

    -7

    Kansas

  • Military Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    ⋅
    Annapolis, MD

    Duke

    UCF

    -4

  • Guaranteed Rate Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    ⋅
    Phoenix, AZ

    Wisconsin

    Oklahoma State

    -1

  • Camellia Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    ⋅
    Montgomery, AL

    Georgia Southern

    -5.5

    Buffalo

  • Birmingham Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    ⋅
    Birmingham, AL

    East Carolina

    -4

    Coastal Carolina

  • First Responder Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    ⋅
    Dallas, TX

    Utah State

    Memphis

    -13

  • Quick Lane Bowl

    Monday, Dec. 26
    ⋅
    Detroit, MI

    New Mexico State

    Bowling Green

    -6

  • EasyPost Hawai’i Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 24
    ⋅
    Honolulu, HI

    San Diego State

    -4

    Middle Tennessee

  • Gasparilla Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 23
    ⋅
    Tampa, FL

    Missouri

    Wake Forest

    -2.5

  • Independence Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 23
    ⋅
    Shreveport, LA

    Houston

    -4

    Louisiana

  • Armed Forces Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 22
    ⋅
    Fort Worth, TX

    Air Force

    Baylor

    -5.5

  • New Orleans Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 21
    ⋅
    New Orleans, LA

    South Alabama

    -3.5

    Western Kentucky

  • Boca Raton Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 20
    ⋅
    Boca Raton, FL

    Toledo

    -1

    Liberty

  • Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 20
    ⋅
    Boise, ID

    San Jose State

    -3.5

    Eastern Michigan

  • Myrtle Beach Bowl

    Monday, Dec. 19
    ⋅
    Conway, SC

    UConn

    Marshall

    -12.5

  • Frisco Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    ⋅
    Frisco, TX

    Boise State

    -10.5

    North Texas

  • Las Vegas Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    ⋅
    Las Vegas, NV

    Florida

    Oregon State

    -1

  • LendingTree Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    ⋅
    Mobile, AL

    Southern Miss

    -7.5

    Rice

  • Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    ⋅
    Los Angeles, CA

    Fresno State

    -1

    Washington State

  • New Mexico Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    ⋅
    Albuquerque, NM

    BYU

    SMU

    -2

  • Wasabi Fenway Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    ⋅
    Boston, MA

    Cincinnati

    Louisville

    -2

  • Duluth Trading Cure Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 16
    ⋅
    Orlando, FL

    Troy

    PK

    UTSA

  • Bahamas Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 16
    ⋅
    Nassau, Bahamas

    UAB

    -12

    Miami (OH)

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Raiders vs Chargers Odds, Pick, Prediction: NFL Betting Preview

raiders vs chargers-odds-pick-prediction-nfl

Raiders vs Chargers Odds

Sunday, Dec. 4
4:25 p.m. ET
CBS
Raiders Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-2.5
-110
49.5
-110o / -110u
 -138
Chargers Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+2.5
-110
49.5
-110o / -110u
 +118
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

The Chargers and Raiders square off in a Week 13 coin flip between a pair of evenly matched AFC West rivals.

What’s not evenly matched, though, is Josh Jacobs against the LA rushing defense. There are a lot of things to like about the Chargers, who have the talent if healthy to take the AFC crown should they make the playoffs, but their ability to stop the run isn’t one of them.

Now the Bolts are tasked with keeping Jacobs, the NFL’s rushing leader with 1,159 yards on the ground, in check. Good luck with that. Even though Jacobs is questionable with a calf injury, reports are he’s more likely than not to suit up.

Let’s take a deeper dive into why that’s terrible news for the Bolts, and where you might want to pivot in the unlikely event he’s sidelined.

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Raiders vs. Chargers Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Raiders and Chargers match up statistically:

Raiders vs. Chargers DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 23 32
Pass DVOA 21 32
Rush DVOA 30 23
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 11 22
Pass DVOA 17 15
Rush DVOA 4 29

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It’s impossible to stress how dreadful the Chargers are defending the run. In fact, they’re historically bad. The 5.44 average yards per carry against them is the worst in the Super Bowl era by a good amount, blowing away Chicago’s 5.35 mark set in 2013.

The Bolts have given up at least 150 yards on the ground in five straight games, and twice surrendered more than 200 yards. Six players have gone over the century mark, and even middling running backs have had a field day. James Connor is the latest example. He hadn’t had a 100-yard rushing game in more than two years but gashed them for 120 yards a week ago. His previous high this season was 69 yards.

Bet at FanDuel

Raiders +2.5

Chargers -2.5

Meanwhile, Jacobs is fresh off the single greatest performances in Raiders history. He set franchise records for rushing yards (229) and scrimmage yards (303). The latter ranks as the seventh best overall in the Super Bowl era.  He also chipped in with a pair of rushing touchdowns, giving him nine on the year, which is fourth most in the league.

A lot was said about the Raiders’ decision to decline Jacobs’ fifth-year option, and he’s making them look foolish.  Not only does he lead the league in rushing yards, but he also has the most first downs on the ground (67), longest run of the season (86), fourth-best yards per carry among running backs with 100 attempts (5.4) and sixth most carries (216). He’s also the only player averaging more than 100 yards per game.  His 105.4 average is 10.1 yards more than Derrick Henry, who ranks second with 95.3.

Both teams surrender more than 25 points per game, so there should be plenty of fireworks. The Chargers’ offense has underperformed expectations, but Justin Herbert has a prime chance to go off against a ghastly Raiders defense.  Football Outsiders ranks them dead last in total DVOA (17.9%) and passing DVOA (33.1%). They’re also 22nd vs. the run (1.4%).

As such, there’s a world in which the Bolts race off to a big lead, forcing the Raiders to abandon their ground attack in favor of Derek Carr, Davante Adams and a potent passing game.

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Betting Picks

I’m not getting cute here.

One of my golden rules is to bet the over on running back yards every week against Los Angeles. It won’t hit every game, but it’s darn profitable over the long haul. So I’m rolling with Jacobs to do what even mediocre running backs have done — carve the Bolts up on the ground.

I do get it if you’re a bit leery, though. It’s not risk free. He’s had 20-plus totes in seven of his last eight games, but it’s fair to wonder if Las Vegas limits his carries to manage his calf injury. I’m definitely taking the chance on the NFL’s leading rusher, though. I mean, did you watch how Jacobs dominated last week despite being banged up? He carried a monster load all game long and still ripped off a game-winning 86-yard game-winning touchdown deep in overtime.

That being said, monitor Jacobs’ situation throughout the day, especially when inactives are announced. If reports are wrong and he happens to be ruled out, quickly pivot to Las Vegas’ other running backs, particularly Zamir White. Reports are he’s likely the one to pick up the slack. He had limited opportunities a week ago but did rip off gains of 17 and 11 yards on his only carries of the game. White’s averaging 4.7 yards per carry on the season, and if he’s the main back, there’s a good chance he does what virtually every primary ball carrier does, and that’s hit the over on rushing yards.

Still, I think it’s highly likely Jacobs gives it a go unless his calf is about to fall off. Las Vegas is flawed, but has a puncher’s chance of a playoff push, or at least making it close. The Raiders need their star running back to make that a reality.

Add it all up and I expect the Raiders to ride Jacobs like Secretariat. BetMGM and DraftKings have 90.5 as the line, as of Saturday afternoon.

Pick: Josh Jacobs Over 90.5 Rushing Yards or Better

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Ezekiel Elliott, CeeDee Lamb, Jonathan Taylor Have Most Popular Player Prop Bets for Colts vs. Cowboys on SNF

most-popular-props-colts-cowboys-snf-ezekiel-elliott-ceedee-lamb-jonathan-taylor

Ezekiel Elliott, CeeDee Lamb and Jonathan Taylor have the most popular NFL player prop bets for Sunday Night Football’s Colts vs. Cowboys.

These props are all in the anytime TD market — and somehow, Tony Pollard isn’t among the public’s most popular picks.

Yet still, it’s none of those four aforementioned players who have the most valuable anytime TD props for Sunday Night Football.

Those honors go to Dalton Schultz (+200 at PointsBet) and Parris Campbell (+370 at DraftKings). Read our anytime TD guru Gilles Gallant’s analysis as to why.

As for Elliott, Lamb and Taylor’s anytime TD lines, our premier data analytics expert Nick Giffen assessed the value for each of those picks.

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View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!

Colts vs. Cowboys Most Popular NFL Player Prop Bets

  1. Ezekiel Elliott to score an anytime TD (-120)
  2. CeeDee Lamb to score an anytime TD (+120)
  3. Jonathan Taylor to score an anytime TD (-125)

*Odds and data are according to PointsBet as of Sunday afternoon.

Out of these three picks, Ezekiel Elliott’s anytime TD prop provides the most value.

His fair value line is at +110, according to Giffen. FanDuel provides a line of +120, which gives this wager roughly 2.2% betting edge.

CeeDee Lamb’s anytime TD prop is reasonable, too.

Lamb’s fair value line is at +123, according to Giffen. At +120 with PointsBet, you’re losing out on 0.6% of value, but it’s a reasonable enough difference if you’re bullish on Lamb’s prospects tonight.

The other line is particularly bad.

And that’s not a PointsBet problem — it’s a marketplace problem. While Taylor is anywhere from -145 to -110 to score a touchdown tonight, his fair value is +141, according to Giffen’s betting algorithms.

At the line’s worst, you’re losing out on 17% of betting value. In an already ultra-efficient market, you’re losing 17 cents for every dollar wagered immediately after pressing “place bet.”

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Bengals vs Chiefs Odds, Pick, Prediction — NFL Week 13

bengals vs chiefs-odds-pick-prediction-week 13

Bengals vs Chiefs Odds

Sunday, Dec. 4
4:25 p.m. ET
CBS
Bengals Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+2.5
-104
52.5
-110o / -110u
 +122
Chiefs Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-2.5
-118
52.5
-110o / -110u
 -144
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

We’ll try to find a Bengals vs. Chiefs pick today, as last year’s AFC finalists will meet in Cincinnati on Sunday. Kansas City looks to move closer toward the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC playoffs.

Kansas City lost both meetings to Joe Burrow and the Bengals last year in dramatic fashion, including a shootout in Cincinnati in December that nearly cost them the top seed. The Chiefs were in control of the rematch in Kansas City, but blew a late lead and lost in overtime.

The Chiefs closed -4.5 for that regular season game in Cincinnati, and a year later, Kansas City is laying less than a field goal on the road.

In a year that’s seen few good teams at the top of the league and plenty of mediocrity throughout, Chiefs-Bengals has the potential to be a high-scoring game between two of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL.

Ja’Marr Chase is expected to make his return for the Bengals and Kansas City’s offense will have adjustments to counter Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo’s second-half playoff masterclass. The Chiefs shouldn’t be laying less than a field goal.
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Bengals vs. Chiefs Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Bengals and Chiefs match up statistically:

Bengals vs. Chiefs DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 1 12
Pass DVOA 2 9
Rush DVOA 16 15
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 7 18
Pass DVOA 9 18
Rush DVOA 5 18

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Anarumo outfoxed both Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid in the second half of the AFC Championship Game. The Bengals exclusively rushed just three defensive linemen and dropped eight into coverage. The shell coverage was designed to take away deep plays and force Mahomes to work underneath. The extra defender in coverage kept Mahomes in the pocket and he made a few questionable decisions, forcing throws into tight coverage.

Kansas City effectively had a bye last week when it played Bryce Perkins and the Los Angeles Rams at home. The Chiefs really struggled in the red zone, but you have to assume Reid and most of the staff had one eye on preparing for Burrow and the Bengals.

Bet Kansas City vs. Cincinnati at FanDuel

Chiefs -2.5

Bengals +2.5

This is the last game on the Chiefs’ schedule against an AFC opponent that will make the playoffs. Despite losing Tyreek Hill in the offseason, Kansas City hasn’t skipped a beat on offense. The Chiefs offense is first in EPA/play and first in success rate.

Mahomes has been a third-down magician for most of his career, but the Chiefs offense is also number one in series conversion rate and second in early down success rate. The Bengals defense is slightly above average in terms of coverage grading and EPA allowed, but they’ve also been carved up by mediocre to average quarterbacks throughout the season. If Kenny Pickett can post 30 points and Andy Dalton can score 26 points on this defense, Mahomes should be able to put plenty of points on the board.

Mahomes has been stellar throughout his career when priced as an underdog or favored by three or fewer points. The Chiefs defense has often been mediocre throughout his tenure, allowing plenty of late backdoor opportunities. His offense is also always good at ball control in the final minutes when trying to prevent the opponent from getting the ball back.

The Chiefs are 17-5-1 with Mahomes at quarterback when -3 or shorter. And if you look deeper into both of those meetings last season, the Bengals engineered multiple improbable double-digit comebacks. The secondary has taken a significant step forward from terrible to just mediocre in 2022 and that should limit the Bengals ability to go nuclear on offense and catch up from behind.

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Betting Picks

Kansas City should have won both meetings between these two teams last season and the Bengals continue to get too much love in the market for last year’s Super Bowl run. Chase will improve the offense, but the Chiefs defensive pressure rate has improved this season and Burrow still has the same sack problems he did last year.

The Bengals defense won’t be able to get pressure on Mahomes with its standard pass rush. Cincinnati is 21st in pass rush win rate and Anarumo will probably need to scheme up pressure if he wants his defense to get anywhere near Mahomes.

If this line gets to three, I’m passing on the matchup. But Chase’s return has bumped this under the key number and I like the Chiefs at -2.5.

Pick: Kansas City -2.5

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NBA Odds, Expert Picks & Predictions: 2 Best Bets For Sunday, Including Chicago Bulls vs. Sacramento Kings (December 4)

The NBA season continues on Sunday with eight games on the slate. This sets up for an exciting day of basketball as six of the eight games feature spreads of three points or fewer. Our analysts Joe Dellera and Andrew O’Connor-Watts are targeting a prop bet and a spread bet for their top plays. Check out their picks and analysis below.

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NBA Odds & Picks

Click on a game to skip ahead
Chicago Bulls vs Sacramento Kings
6 p.m. ET
Boston Celtics vs. Brooklyn Nets
6 p.m. ET

Chicago Bulls vs Sacramento Kings

Pick
Domantas Sabonis Over 35.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Book
FanDuel
Tipoff
6 p.m. ET
TV
NBA League Pass

Joe Dellera: The Bulls take on the Kings in a game with one of the highest point totals this season, and sharp money has pushed the over up three points from the open. Both teams are top 10 in Pace, so this is no surprise.

This should mean plenty of more opportunities for players on each team, but I’m focusing on Domantas Sabonis.

Sabonis has been incredible with the Kings ever since he was acquired in a trade for the NBA’s assist leader, Tyrese Haliburton, and this trade seems to have benefitted both franchises. This season, Sabonis has averaged 17 points, 10.7 rebounds and 6.4 assists for a total of 34.1 PRA, which is below this current PRA line of 35.5.

However, there should be an increase in Pace for both teams in this spot, and Sabonis has a strong track record against Nikola Vucevic.

Over the last three seasons, Sabonis averages 20.5/12.3/5.8 (38.6 PRA) versus Vuc. Given the pace here, I expect him to continue his strong play and contribute across the board.

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» Return to the table of contents «

Boston Celtics vs. Brooklyn Nets

Pick
Nets +3
Book
FanDuel
Tipoff
6 p.m. ET
TV
NBA League Pass

Andrew O’Connor-Watts: The last time these two teams played each other was in the first round of last season’s playoffs, in which the Boston Celtics swept the Brooklyn Nets on their way to an NBA Finals run.

Despite the sweep, Boston was far from dominant, winning by an average of 4.5 points per game as the Nets managed to keep each game competitive.

The Celtics own this matchup when looking at the immediate past. They are 5-0 straight up in their last five games against the Nets, and the Celtics continue to dominate, going 5-1 against the spread in their last six games and 14-2 straight up in their last 16.

The Nets have turned things around from their early season woes. They are currently fourth in Effective Field Goal Percentage and second in Defensive Effective Field Goal Percentage—behind only the Bucks. That has translated to success for Nets bettors, as they are 11-5 against the spread in their last 16 games. They’ve also been playing well at home as they have gone 5-1 against the spread in their last six and are 9-4 versus the Celtics at home.

Both teams are in good form, but the edge here lies in the motivations of each teams. The Nets have had this game circled since last season and should come out with a bang. I like them to win, so I’ll take the points at +3 with Brooklyn. I might even sprinkle some on the moneyline as this is a huge statement game for the Nets.

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Lakers vs. Wizards Odds, Expert Pick & Prediction: Back LeBron James and Los Angeles to Stay Hot (December 4)

lakers-vs-wizards-odds-preview-prediction-pick-nba-december-4-2022

Lakers vs. Wizards Odds

Lakers Odds +1.5
Wizards Odds -1.5
Over/Under 233.5
Time 6 p.m. ET
TV NBA League Pass
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Los Angeles Lakers will continue their six-game road trip on Sunday evening when they travel to Washington D.C.to take on the Wizards.

The Lakers began their road trip with quite the bang, defeating the Bucks 133-129 in what was their fourth win in their past five games. On the other hand, the Wizards have not found themselves in the win column quite as often, having lost five of their past six games.

Washington finds themselves in the midst of a downward spiral, but does return to its home court after playing five of the past six games on the road. Will that be enough to get the Wizards their 12th win of the season, or will the Lakers continue to play good basketball and win their third game in a row?
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Los Angeles Lakers

The Los Angeles Lakers began the 2022-23 season by winning just two of their first 11 games. The biggest source for the Lakers’ early season struggles was their inability to put an even slightly competent offense on the floor. As a result, the Lakers posted an Offensive Rating of 103.2, which ranked 30th in the NBA during that 11-game stretch.

However, the Lakers have since won seven of their past 10 games, a sign that LA may have found its footing.

The past 10 games have seen the Lakers perform at a level we haven’t seen from this roster in a long time. Since its poor start, LA has raised its Offensive Rating to 117.9, which is nearly 15 points higher than it was less than a month ago.

Additionally, the Lakers have become far more efficient from just about everywhere on the floor. In their first 11 games the Lakers shot a league worst 29.3% from behind the arc, but have since raised that percentage to 37.2%. They also shot just 44.5% from the floor in their first 11 games, but have seen that percentage rise to 49.8% in the past 10 games.

LeBron James and Anthony Davis are listed on the injury report, but that is a common occurrence and both guys have played exceptionally well as of late. James has averaged 28 points, 8.2 rebounds and six assists since returning from injury on November 25th. Davis has contributed with an average of 30.3 points and 12.5 rebounds per game in that same stretch.
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Washington Wizards

Opposite of the Lakers, the Wizards began their season by winning 10 of their first 17 games. However, Washington has come back down to Earth since that start, and is now in quite the slump.

The past six games have been far from ideal for the Wizards. Washington is just 1-5 and has a point differential of -21, meaning they’re having problems on both ends of the floor.

The largest issue has been their efficiency from behind the arc. The Wizards have performed poorly in that area for most of the season, as evidenced by their three-point percentage of 34.2%. That percentage has fallen even further (31.6%) in their past six games.

However, Washington is also having a tremendous amount of trouble on the defensive end of the floor. In their past six games the Wizards have seen their Defensive Rating rise to a poor 120.5, putting them at the 28th in the NBA in that stretch of time. That is up from their season rating of 112.4, which further shows that the Wizards can’t seem to figure anything out.
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Lakers-Wizards Pick

All in all we have two teams trending in opposite directions and I think the Lakers are more likely to stay hot than Washington is to turn things around.

The Wizards weaknesses open up the door for many of LA’s strengths. Washington is allowing opponents to shoot 37% from behind the arc this season, which will likely continue against a Lakers team that has finally found their touch from three-point land. LA is also one of the more dominant teams in the painted area this season, scoring an average of 56.7 points per game and seeing that average rise to 62.7 in their past three games.

I expect the hot shooting of James and Davis to continue against a defense that hasn’t been able to stop anyone as of late. I like the Lakers to cover the spread on the road.

Pick: Lakers +1.5

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NBA Player Props & Expert Picks: How to Bet Jaden Ivey and Mitchell Robinson (December 4)

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After connecting on both of our player props last night, we look to keep the momentum going as we are targeting two more props tonight. With only five games on the main slate, options are limited, but Jaden Ivey and Mitchell Robinson have great props with plus-money juice available.

We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.

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NBA Player Props & Picks

Grizzlies vs.

Pistons

Jaden Ivey, Over 4.5 Assists (+115)

Spread Grizzlies -7
Time | TV 6 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Best Line DraftKings

The Detroit Pistons are coming off of an overtime victory over the Dallas Mavericks but still have one of the worst records in the league at 6-18 this season. They are seven-point road underdogs, but with Cade Cunningham  still out, Jaden Ivey has value on his Over 4.5 Assists prop.

Ivey came off the bench last game in his first game back from injury but still played 35 minutes. He finished with 16 points and six assists as he had a 26.7% Usage Rate. In his rookie season, Ivey has averaged 8.5 potential assists per game, and that has climbed considerably with Cunningham out recently.

Our model has Ivey projected for 5.3 assists in this matchup against the Grizzlies. The Memphis defense has allowed 27 assists per game, which ranks as the third-most in the league. Despite the Pistons shooting just 44.7% from the field this season, Ivey still has upside as the main facilitator tonight.

Ivey has recorded five or more assists in six of his last seven games. While he is projected for nearly one more assist than his prop line, the value we get on DraftKings at +115 for this over is very intriguing. In a great matchup against the Grizzlies, Ivey will have plenty of assist opportunities.

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Cavaliers vs.

Knicks

Mitchell Robinson, Under 8.5 Rebounds (+102)

Spread Cavaliers -3
Time | TV 6 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Best Line FanDuel

The New York Knicks have lost six of their last eight games and are three-point home underdogs against one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. Despite Jarrett Allen being out, the Cleveland Cavaliers have a 15-8 record, and this game has the lowest total on the slate tonight by far at only 221.5 points.

Mitchell Robinson’s rebounds line is the prop to target as this number has climbed to 8.5 boards. The Cavaliers rank fourth in Rebounding Percentage this season as they have allowed a league-low 39.3 rebounds per game. They also lead the league by allowing 105.6 points per game as they rank second in Defensive Rating.

This is a brutal matchup for Robinson, who could easily get into foul trouble guarding the versatile Evan Mobley. Robinson has had some huge rebounding performances this season, but our model has him projected for only 7.1 rebounds tonight, which is a full rebound under the prop line. This is another prop that is providing great value at plus-money on FanDuel.

Robinson has gone under this 8.5 rebound prop line in 11 of his 15 games played (73%) this season. With him facing a tough matchup and always struggling with foul trouble, we’ll go under on Robinson’s rebound prop tonight.

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Updated 2022 College Football Betting Power Ratings | Action Network

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Editors Note: The Action Network’s College Football Betting Power Ratings are current as of Dec. 4, 2022. This column will be updated throughout the 2022 season to reflect Collin Wilson’s adjustments from the previous week’s action.

What’s a Power Rating in Sports Betting?

Power Ratings are not all that different from trading stocks — you assign a value to something based on a number of factors, try to buy it when it’s low, and sell when it’s high.

With stocks, long-term investors look for a clean balance sheet, revenue growth and market capitalization. In sports betting, a gambler should look for price point, market deflation and growth over peers.

Our power ratings are fueled by Wilson’s projections, which aim to judge the true quality of a team based on advanced metrics, coaching changes, year-over-year roster continuity (TARP) and a host of other underlying components.

We can use his ratings to create a point spread between any two teams in the country on a neutral field — just subtract the higher team’s rating from the lower-ranked one.

As the season progresses, we also keep track of teams that are trending up and teams that are trending down, which helps find value among teams that are regarded highly by the public and misranked in the AP Top 25 Poll.

The ultimate CFB betting cheat code

Best bets for every game

Collin Wilson’s biggest weekly edges

Profitable data-driven system picks
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How to Use Action Network’s College Football Power Ratings

The Action Network has a page dedicated to projected spreads and totals for each week’s slate of games with home-field advantage taken into account. Furthermore, Action PRO subscribers can use those projections to target early betting value even before sportsbooks release official lines for the upcoming week’s action.

Collin’s power ratings are updated every week based on previous performance and news from around the country to ensure that everything is up-to-date heading into the next slate of games.

Along with Collin’s projections for every game, subscribers can see full bet and money percentages and our signals that show where sharps are laying down money and any relevant trends to help make the smartest bets possible.

Updated College Football Power Ratings

Power ratings adjustments are current as of Sunday, Dec. 4, 2022.

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Rams vs Seahawks Odds, Pick, Prediction: Bet Seattle in Week 13

rams vs seahawks-odds-pick-prediction-nfl-week 13-preview-spread

Rams vs Seahawks Odds

Sunday, Dec. 4
4:05 p.m. ET
FOX
Rams Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+6.5
-105
40.5
-118o / -104u
 +250
Seahawks Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-6.5
-115
40.5
-118o / -104u
 -310
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

At this point of the season, the Los Angeles is one of the worst teams in the NFL with their current roster. On paper, it should be hard to find a Rams vs. Seahawks pick.

This week, the reigning champions will be without almost all of their key players from last year’s Super Bowl. Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Allen Robinson and Aaron Donald will all be sidelined, along with numerous injuries to the offensive line.

The Seahawks had a bit of a scare earlier in the week with an illness going around the locker room, but it appears that has subsided as most of those players were removed from the injury report on Friday. Only three players are even listed as questionable for Seattle this week, so there’s a chance that they could be at full strength.

Typically, betting on a big home underdog in a divisional game would be a wise play, but with the differences in health between these two rosters and how they have both played this season, this line may not be high enough.

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Rams vs. Seahawks Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Rams and Seahawks match up statistically:

Rams vs. Seahawks DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 8 16
Pass DVOA 4 26
Rush DVOA 23 5
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 27 19
Pass DVOA 25 21
Rush DVOA 27 19

John Wolford will be getting the start under the center for the Rams this weekend. His only previous game this season was his 212 passing yard performance in a losing effort to Arizona. With how devoid of talent this offensive roster is right now, it likely doesn’t matter who is playing quarterback as even Stafford struggled for much of the year.

This Rams offensive line is one of the worst in the league this season. They have battled injuries and had to throw out multiple combinations of inexperienced players into a system that is reliant on competent offensive line play. The Rams are ranked 30th in PFF pass blocking grade and 20th in run blocking this season. They also rank 23rd in ESPN’s pass block win rate and 27th in run block win rate.

Bet Seattle vs. Los Angeles at FanDuel

Seahawks -7

Rams +7

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This has all led to Los Angeles’ offense being among the worst in the NFL. The Rams rank 30th in EPA per play and 29th in success rate. Their problems have shown in both the run and pass game as they are 30th in dropback EPA and 29th in rushing EPA. 

Early downs are really killing the Rams. Their EPA on first and second down this season is comically low when compared to the rest of the league. Los Angeles is averaging -0.166 EPA per play on early downs this season while the next closest team is at -0.063. They are last in both passing and rushing EPA on early downs. This is the lowest mark by any team in a season since the 2016 Rams.

Seattle’s offense has been a pleasant surprise this season. The Seahawks rank eighth in EPA per play and success rate. Geno Smith and the passing offense have fueled much of this success. The Seahawks rank second in passing success rate and seventh in passing EPA. Smith is playing at a level that he never has before, leading the league in Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) and ranking eighth in adjusted EPA per play.

Neither defense has been outstanding this year, but Seattle’s has been a notch lower. The Seahawks rank 26th in EPA per play allowed but ninth in success rate as they tend to allow big plays. Meanwhile, this Rams’ defense ranks 15th and 12th in those two categories respectively, but the loss of Donald will loom large.

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Betting Picks

The amount of injuries that this Los Angeles team has endured this season is just too much for any team to handle and that will likely show again this weekend. This team has been incapable of moving the ball all season long and now will be without the best defensive player in the league for the foreseeable future.

The Seahawks’ offense is perfectly capable of taking advantage of these extra drives and should have a fairly successful day on offense. Smith and this passing attack, along with a Seattle rushing scheme that can take advantage of Donald’s absence up the middle, will be able to cover this seven point spread.

Pick: Seahawks -6.5 (Bet to -7)

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49ers vs Dolphins Odds, Pick, Prediction: Bet This Week 13 Underdog

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49ers vs Dolphins Odds

Sunday, Dec. 4
4:05 p.m. ET
FOX
49ers Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-5.5
-106
45.5
-110o / -110u
 -230
Dolphins Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+5.5
-114
45.5
-110o / -110u
 +190
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

I couldn’t be more excited to find a 49ers vs. Dolphins pick. Not only do we get two teams that have top-three odds to represent their conference in the Super Bowl. We also get a matchup of master versus apprentice.

The master, Kyle Shanahan, has run circles around the league since he was allowed to call plays. By his side for years was Mike McDaniel. McDaniel was on Shanahan’s staff starting in 2011 as an offensive assistant and followed Shanahan from job to job through last season.

Now, as the head coach of the Dolphins, no one can deny McDaniel learned a great deal from Shanahan. McDaniel’s offense is founded on the same concepts of utilizing playmakers in space and various unique looks to keep defenses unprepared for what is next. 

The stats give all the explanation needed for these schemes as both teams are top six in yards per play. That is despite both teams using other quarterbacks than their current starter for multiple games.

Let’s take a deep dive to see if Shanahan will again show he is the superior offensive mind or if the student will show he is now the master.

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49ers vs. Dolphins Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the 49ers and Dolphins match up statistically:

49ers vs. Dolphins DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 2 5
Pass DVOA 1 10
Rush DVOA 14 2
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 10 17
Pass DVOA 5 25
Rush DVOA 21 12

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Last week, the Dolphins extended their 30-point game streak to four. The impressive part was that it only took one half to do. They would cap out and not score after the half, but that should not be an indictment on the offense. Tua Tagovailoa was pulled to prevent additional injury due to Terron Armstead being knocked out. Tagovailoa still threw for 299 yards despite not playing the whole game.

Tagovailoa would not be able to have such explosive days if not for his dynamic receiving duo. Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill have worked their way up to the best receiving duo in the NFL. Of receivers with at least 50 targets, Waddle and Hill rank first and second in yards per target.

On the ground, Miami had shown vast improvements recently until this past week. Against the Texans, Miami had its worst rushing output since Week 3. This came as a major shock given how good the Dolphins have been on the ground since adding Jeff Wilson Jr. With Miami, Wilson is averaging 5.4 yards per carry. The return of Raheem Mostert should provide a boost, but finding space against the 49ers’ front still will not be easy. 

Defensively, the Dolphins have had their troubles but have shown optimism recently. They have produced a grade over 80 in each of the past two weeks. Their pressure has helped what had been their biggest weakness so far, their coverage unit. Miami has had its two best coverage grades of the season in those games. We will see if they can maintain the new standard against one of the top NFL offenses.

Bet at FanDuel

Dolphins +3.5

49ers -3.5

The 49ers are coming off their worst offensive game since adding Christian McCaffrey. After they put together a perfectly balanced offensive attack against the Cardinals, the struggles against New Orleans were disappointing to see. 

The most disappointing part of the offense has been receiver Deebo Samuel. Last year, Samuel was a wrecking ball and a complete menace with the ball in his hands. Since the addition of McCaffrey, Samuel has just one game with over 60 yards of offense. Before McCaffrey’s arrival, Samuel had just one game under the 60-yard total. Samuel and McCaffrey occupy the same space on the field but this offense will need to find a way to utilize both if it is to meet its ceiling.

A positive spin, though, is this team keeps winning despite the poor play of Samuel, and George Kittle for that matter. Perhaps Shanahan is saving his best ideas for these for competitive games like this one.

While the offense has gone through its peaks and troughs, the defense has consistently remained dominant. They rank first in both points and yards per game allowed and have only had one real collapse against the Chiefs. In their defense for that game, they were missing a few key starters. 

The key player for the defense in this matchup will be Nick Bosa, who has been crushing opponents as he ranks fourth at edge per PFF. He will be matched up against Brandon Shell and Greg Little for the Dolphins. Both of whom rank 63rd or lower at tackle.

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Betting Picks

The 49ers may be No. 1 in both points and yards per game but they have had some scheduling help getting there. They have played just one offense as good as the Dolphins and that was the Chiefs in Week 7. They can say injuries played a part in that game, but 44 points and 529 yards aren’t entirely being solved by one or two players. 

San Fran’s defense plays around the pressure its defense creates, but the Dolphins’ offense plays to counter that. Tagovailoa has the sixth-lowest time to throw, per Next Gen Stats. This will make it difficult for the 49ers’ front to have its typical impact. It will also leave the onus on San Fran’s defensive backs to make plays in space against Miami’s speedy receivers; a very tall task for the Niners’ weakest unit defensively.

Fortunately, the 49ers’ offense will have a similar advantage against the Dolphins’ defense. Miami has poured its resources into the defensive front and while it has paid off, this will be its toughest test. Like Miami’s offense, San Fran’s offense is built around players who are excellent in space. It will be up to Jimmy Garoppolo to get them the ball on time but if he does they should have success gaining yards after the catch.

This means the question comes down to which coach can out-scheme the other and which quarterback can outplay the other. While I will trust Shanahan and McDaniel to make their mark on this game, I will only trust one quarterback to do so. We have seen Tagovailoa in huge close games this year pull throw and lead comeback victories against Baltimore and Buffalo. 

As for Garoppolo, we have seen him in big games against the best opponents and that is when things don’t go as smoothly. His playoff quarterback rating of 74.1 and four to six touchdown to interception ratio says it all. I know this is not the playoffs, but it is a huge game against one of the league’s best. 

Tagovailoa is Pro Football Focus’ No. 2 quarterback and has led his team through games like this already this year. I will trust him to do it once again.

Pick: Dolphins +3.5 or Better

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Colts vs Cowboys Same Game Parlay for Sunday Night Football

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The Dallas Cowboys look to keep the ball rolling on Sunday night as they welcome in the lowly Indianapolis Colts.

Dallas has won four of its last five, including a blowout of Minnesota and a Thanksgiving win over their division rival Giants. The Colts, meanwhile, have lost their last two and are just 1-2 under new head coach Jeff Saturday.

The Cowboys enter as 10.5-point favorites, but that doesn’t mean there’s no value to be had in the prop market! Here’s a same-game parlay for Sunday Night Football.

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Michael Gallup
Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-150) & an Anytime TD (+195)

It’s been a long journey, but Michael Gallup is finally settling into his role as the No. 2 receiver in Dallas.

After suffering an early-season injury and struggling to find his footing, Gallup has been targeted 25 times over the last four games. He’s broken the 35-yard mark each time, including a season-best 63 yards last week against the Giants.

Now back at full health, the Cowboys offense is finding its stride. Gallup is a perfect under-the-radar receiver to target in this matchup given Tony Pollard’s breakout season and Dallas’ recent success on the ground behind him and Ezekiel Elliott.

CeeDee Lamb will continue to be the most-targeted Cowboys receiver, but Gallup has seen his target share skyrocket. He’s the clear second-option in the passing game and should see upwards of seven targets on Sunday night, even as 10.5-point favorites.

Action Network projections have this closer to 46 yards, a near 5% edge from the current number. I’m going to ride the hot hand here with Gallup now carving a role into this Dallas offense at full health.

Gallup hasn’t scored since Week 1 of the NFL season despite the 6-foot-1 receiver being used in red zone packages. Dallas has had a lot of success on the ground which has led to a lack of passing touchdowns, but the Indy defense ranks eighth in rush defense, per PFF.

I expect the opportunities to be there for Gallup in a Dallas offense that has been moving the ball with efficiency and like taking a stab at him to score a touchdown on Sunday night.

Plus, even Sean Koerner also picked him at the tail end of ‘Convince Me!’ as part of our Power Hour show.

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Jonathan Taylor
Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-160)

It’s time to ride the hot hand with Jonathan Taylor. After a slow start to the season, Taylor has turned on the jets under new head coach Jeff Saturday.

Over the last three weeks, Taylor has rushed the ball 20+ times and has finished above 80 yards in every game. He’s broken the 70-yard mark in each of the last four.

Since his dud against Tennessee in Week 4 — he would miss time with an injury after — Taylor returned and has averaged 5.01 yards per carry.

If Indianapolis wants to have a shot at upsetting Dallas, it starts with establishing the run game. The Colts passing offense has struggled and it plays perfectly into Dallas’ strengths. They are fifth in pass coverage and first in pass rush, per PFF, but sit all the way down at 27th in rush defense.

Action Network projections have this number closer to 80 yards, so there’s some wiggle room to his over here.

The Parlay (+500 at DraftKings)

  • Michael Gallup Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-150)
  • Michael Gallup Anytime TD (+195)
  • Jonathan Taylor Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-160)

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FanDuel Maryland Promo Code Grants $200 Value for Week 13 NFL Sunday

Maryland sports bettors can use FanDuel’s promo code worth $200 if they bet a minimum of $5 on any NFL Sunday game.

This can be used to bet on any of Sunday’s events, but we’ll take a closer look at how it can be used on Packers–Bears at 1 p.m.

This link will unlock the offer — there’s no code needed to use this FanDuel promotion.

If you’re in any other state, you can take advantage of FanDuel’s $1,000 no-sweat bet.  You can learn more about those here.

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Below, I’ll draw up how this promotion unravels on Friday, how you should use it and other promo betting insights.

FanDuel’s Maryland Promotion

This is pretty straight forward. Essentially, you sign up, deposit and bet $5 or more to activate the promo. You’ll see $200 in free bets back whether your bet wins or loses.

Here’s a step-by-step guide using Packers-Bears as a vehicle to explain.

Step 1: Choosing a Bet 

Seeking plus-money wagers is the best way to approach using betting promos. The most effective way to do this is by creating a parlay.

You will start to see more expected value as you continue betting.

Let’s look at what’s on tap in this Packers-Bears grudge match on Sunday to decide what feels right:

Green Bay Packers (-178) vs. Chicago Bears (+150) Preview

It’s no secret how dominant Aaron Rodgers has been against the Packers in his career — holding a career 23-5 record heading into Sunday. It’s also no secret that Rodgers has struggled mightily this year with this young team. 2022 has been one of his lowest QBR numbers (92.9) since after his rookie years.

Rodgers might see his due given that Chicago poses the No. 1 defense in pass attempts allowed. They also rank No. 4 in pass completions. Rodgers and Christian Watson have connected for two 100+ yard games in their last three together, but otherwise, there isn’t a lot of trustworthy mitts downfield.

Justin Fields will return after sitting out Week 12 with a shoulder injury. It is unclear how Matt Eberflus plans to deploy Fields while hampering the discomfort. Fields production was last busting at the seams in the few games prior — posting two 300+ total yard games and 13 total touchdowns in his last four starts. It’s clear that the Bears’ No. 1 weapon is Fields’ rushing capabilities.

The Packers are the worst team in the NFL in rushing yards allowed. If Fields plays more conservatively, look for David Montgomery to show a voracious appetite in the backfield.

Speaking of running backs, Aaron Jones has revived himself with two touchdowns and 315 total yards in his last three outings. Funny enough, the Bears rank dead last in rushing touchdowns allowed.

So it’s two solid rushing offenses facing faulty defenses. Despite the way the Bears’ season has progressed, Fields has provided an exciting surge. Chicago is chomping at the bit after three straight losses within three points. This could be the sweet victory they’ve been knocking for.

The Pick: Bears ML at +150

Step 2: Placing Your Wager

You place the minimum $5 on Bears +150. If the Bears pull off the win, you see the $12.50 payout plus the $200 in free bets. But if the Packers win, you still get the $200 in free bets.

Sportsbooks offer promotions like these as a friendly welcome to legal online sports betting. So if you’re in Maryland, take advantage.

If you’d like to get more acquainted before placing your first bet, take a look through our 12 sports betting tips and a how-to for reading American odds.

Step 3: Using Free Bets Wisely

Free bets can only be used to wager; you cannot withdraw them. They don’t have to be all used at once, so you can place multiple bets with portions of your free bets.

If the bet wins, you’ll get the profits, but the free bets are gone. Should it lose, and you are not staked with free bets again. You will just lose your wager. Free bets expire if you do not use them within the given window, which is one week. Also, they can’t be used to bet with other FanDuel promotions either.

Let’s place the $200 in free bets on this late-window parlay on Sunday and see what happens:

Bet Line
Dolphins ML +172
Raiders ML -108
Bengals ML +112
Total +1010

You rake in a miraculous $2,020 if this hits (the $100 in free bets goes away). But if it loses, you get $0 and lose all $200 in free bets. So make a play you’re confident with when you’re betting with house money.

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If you’re craving more intel for Sunday’s menu of NFL, watch our Chris Raybon and Stuckey break it down with bets to target.

 

Signing Up For FanDuel

Signing up for FanDuel is an easy 4-step process. Follow the directions below to get your account activated and ready for betting.

Step 1. Click here to visit FanDuel. Navigate to “Bet Now” in the middle of the page, and select your state.

Step 2. Enter your details:

  • Email
  • Username
  • Create a Secure Password
  • Legal Name
  • Date of Birth
  • Home Address
  • Last four digits of your SSN

Step 3. Confirm your age and eligibility (must be 21+ years old).

Step 4. You’re ready to deposit and bet!

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NFL Odds, Picks & Predictions Week 13: Seahawks vs. Rams Landing Sharp Betting Action (Sunday, December 4)

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NFL Week 13 offers a bunch of interesting matchups and, wouldn’t you know it, Sunday’s smartest betting picks also come from some of the day’s biggest games as well.

In Minnesota, the Mike White show rolls on (or does it?) against the Vikings.

We also have an NFC East showdown between the Commanders and Giants that could decide which of these teams ultimately earns an NFC wild-card berth.

And as part of Sunday’s late slate, the Seahawks get a shell of the reigning Super Bowl champion Rams, who will be without their core of Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald.

With the help of a PRO System with a 62% against-the-spread (ATS) win rate and the Action Network’s sharp action indicators, here are Sunday’s three best NFL picks for Week 13.

NFL Picks for Week 13

*NFL odds as of Sunday morning

Jets vs. Vikings Pick

1 p.m. ET | CBS

Will White and the Jets offense turn back into pumpkins? Or is what we saw last weekend against the Bears the new normal for New York?

Thankfully, the Action Network’s NFL PRO Betting Systems provide this answer.

At first, I was sure that backing Captain Kirk was the play, but per usual I was:

While I admit that my personal biases led me to initially lean Vikings in this matchup, the Jets fit our Road Dog, Low Total After Bad Season System, which is 242-151-10 (62%) ATS dating back to 2005.

In addition, two of our top NFL bettors are also taking New York and the points, suggesting that the Jets are the valuable side of this extremely interesting matchup.

Pick: Jets +3

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Commanders vs. Giants Pick

1 p.m. ET | FOX

Welcome to the Walsh Bowl.

I was born in New Jersey and am a Giants fan, while my wife is from Northern Virginia and is a Commanders fan.

Are we used to these teams playing each other? Of course, they’re in the same division.

Are we used to these teams playing each other and it actually meaning something? Lol.

But let’s not talk about how this game will inevitably affect my marriage and instead look at the smartest way to bet Commanders vs. Giants, which is to bypass the spread in favor of the total.

This number opened at 42 at FanDuel Sportsbook and smart money has taken a market-moving position on the under.

Sharps steamed the Commanders vs. Giants under earlier this week, catalyzing a move down to the latest consensus line of 40.5 (click here for live NFL odds).

My wife and I can both root for a lower-scoring game no matter the outcome and remain civil, right?

Pick: Under 40.5

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Seahawks vs. Rams Prediction

4:05 p.m. ET | FOX

Los Angeles will be without its starting quarterback and All-Pro wide receiver, and the sharp side of Seahawks vs. Rams falls right in line.

In eerily similar line movement to Commanders vs. Giants, the Seahawks vs. Rams total opened at 42 and has been bombarded with large wagers from respected players, leaving oddsmakers no choice but to react by adjusting this number down to 41 as of the time of writing.

Pick: Under 41

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Cavaliers vs. Knicks Odds, Expert Pick & Prediction: Expect Points at Madison Square Garden (December 4)

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Cavaliers vs. Knicks Odds

Cavaliers Odds -3
Knicks Odds +3
Over/Under 223
Time 6 p.m. ET
TV NBA League Pass
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Donovan Mitchell makes his return to New York as a Cavalier to prove how big of a mistake the Knicks made by not acquiring him this summer. Will the Knicks contain a motivated Mitchell and this hot Cavs team? Let’s examine how these teams match up.

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Improved Cavaliers Offense Has an Edge

The Cavaliers have had an excellent start to their season as they sit third in the Eastern Conference with a 15-8 record. The Cavs have been the second-most efficient team in the NBA by Adjusted Net Rating (+7.2) and have been particularly dominant on defense as they lead the league in Adjusted Defensive Rating (107.9). This a challenging matchup for their defense as the Knicks have been absolutely rolling on offense lately.

The Cavs offense should have no issues scoring here as the Knicks have been awful on defense. New York ranks 27th in Defensive Rating by allowing about 115.7 points per 100 possessions.

Unsurprisingly, this Cleveland offense has been massively improved since adding Mitchell to play alongside Darius Garland in the backcourt. These two should give the Knicks a ton of trouble as New York is completely bereft of quality guard defenders outside of Immanuel Quickley.

The Knicks also struggle to defend the 3-point line, ranking 27th in 3-Point Rate Allowed on the season. This is a massive edge for the Cavs as they have four rotation players shooting above 40% from 3 on the season. Expect the Cavs to have plenty of success on offense against this porous Knicks defense.

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Knicks Should Dominate the Glass

The Knicks have exceeded 120 points in four of their last five games and have jumped to 11th in points per 100 possessions (114.3). The Knicks came back to Earth against the Bucks, but the Bucks have an elite defense that matches up particularly well with the Knicks.

We all saw what Jalen Brunson did to Mitchell in the playoffs last year, and I expect him to replicate that level of play this time around. Brunson loves to bully small guards, and the Cavs have plenty for him to pick on. Between Mitchell, Garland, and Raul Neto, I expect Brunson to get to any spot he wants.

The Cavs defense has not been the same without Jarrett Allen as they have allowed 113.7 points per 100 possessions (41st percentile) with Allen off the court. They have particularly struggled with defensive rebounding as they have allowed a poor 28.3% Offensive Rebound Rate (31st percentile) with Allen out. That’s a huge issue when playing against this Knicks team as they rank as the fourth-best offensive rebounding team in the league.

The Knicks just grabbed 19 offensive rebounds versus Milwaukee on Wednesday despite the Bucks being the second-best defensive rebounding team in the NBA. Consequently, they should have no issues generating second chances against this smaller Cavaliers team.

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Cavaliers-Knicks Pick

I like Over 222.5 a lot given the edges on the offensive side of the ball for each team. The Cavaliers should launch plenty of 3s against this Knicks defense, and Brunson should generate lots of offense with one of Garland or Mitchell guarding him for the majority of the game. I also love the Knicks’ offensive rebounding edge and expect that to lead to consistent second-chance opportunities tonight. Take Over 222.5 in New York tonight at FanDuel.

Pick: Over 222.5

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5 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for Colts vs. Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, Including Ezekiel Elliott, Matt Ryan

The five most valuable props for Sunday Night Football’s Colts vs. Cowboys target Ezekiel Elliott and Matt Ryan.

We wrote earlier on Sunday about the valuable spread pick for this contest, which fades teams that have covered well throughout the season.

Our algorithms laboriously factor in matchups, weather, scheme and other mechanisms to best deduce which props across the marketplace provide positive expected value.

View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!

5 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for Colts vs. Cowboys

  1. Ezekiel Elliott under 14.5 rushing attempts +100 (DraftKings)
  2. Matt Ryan over 31.5 pass attempts -114 (FanDuel)
  3. Matt Ryan over 3.5 rushing yards -105 (DraftKings)
  4. Michael Gallup over 3.5 receptions +120 (DraftKings)
  5. Parris Campbell over 3.5 receptions -105 (PointsBet)

*Odds and data are as of Sunday afternoon. These are the market’s most valuable prices.

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The most valuable prop for Sunday Night Football’s Colts vs. Cowboys is on Ezekiel Elliott to rush for 14 times or fewer.

Our models expect Elliott to rush for about 13.2 times on Sunday night. That gives the bet a roughly 15% betting edge, especially at a +100 vig at DraftKings.

Essentially, you’re getting a 15% discount on the true price of that prop bet, according to our algorithms.

Matt Ryan’s two player prop bets provide about 9% and 5% in value. The veteran QB is expected to throw the ball about 33.5 times tonight. Compare that to his line at o31.5 (-115) at FanDuel.

And while Ryan seldom tucks it and runs, our models expect him to net about four yards on average on Sunday. That gives DraftKings’ line of -105 a 5% betting edge.

Meanwhile, the two receivers in question are expected to net about four receptions tonight, on average. Gallup’s betting discount is far better on account of the +120 vig.

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NFL Player Props: Expert Week 13 Picks for Tyler Lockett, Kyren Williams, More

nfl player props-week 13-tyler lockett-kyren williams

This file will be updated throughout the weekend with all of Sean Koerner’s player props for Week 13. Follow him in the Action App to get all his picks immediately.

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Marcus Mariota
Under 170.5 Passing Yards

The Falcons continue to be the most run-heavy team in the NFL on early downs in neutral situations this season.

When Mariota does throw a rare pass, it’s been an average of 9.8 yards down the field, which is the third highest in the NFL. However, last week, it was the third lowest in the league at 5.5 yards. I would imagine one of the reasons for his low Average Depth of Target was because Kyle Pitts is now out for the season. If we get a run-heavy Falcons offense with a lower aDot without Pitts, sign me up for this under.

Worst-case scenario for this pick is if the Falcons get down big early and are forced into a pass-heavy script. After a crucial interception on a second-and-goal situation last week, though, I’m guessing we could see Desmond Ridder replace Mariota at any moment. While I don’t think that moment is likely to come – far from it – it’s still in the realm of possibilities, adding value to this bet.

I’m projecting this for closer to 155.5 and think Mariota has a lower floor than usual this week.

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D’Andre Swift
Over 20.5 Rushing Yards

Swift hasn’t cleared this total since Week 3, but this is a sneaky time to invest in him.

Swift looked great last week and seems to be over his injuries. He’s starting to eat into Justin Jackson’s playing time, so there’s a chance he gets seven or more carries today.

Either way, he should be able to get over his total with the usual five or six rush attempts he gets. I’m projecting him for closer to 25.5 rushing yards here, with upside for more.

Pick: D’Andre Swift Over 20.5 Rushing Yards

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Adam Thielen
Under 49.5 Receiving Yards

The Vikings face a stingy Jets pass defense, and Thielen should have to face Sauce Gardner at times in this matchup.

Thielen is coming off a nice 61-yard performance, but it took him nine receptions and 10 targets to get there. It was also a game that saw tight end T.J. Hockenson stay in to block more than usual.

Thielen does have a fairly high floor, but he has to compete with Justin Jefferson and now Hockenson for targets. In a tougher matchup, I like the idea of fading him.

I’m projecting his median closer to 43.5 yards.

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Logan Thomas
Under 23.5 Receiving Yards (BetMGM)

The Commanders have become an extremely run-heavy team, leading the league in early down rush rate in neutral situations over their last three games.

Considering they’ve been winning with this strategy and face the Giants, I see them sticking to it and want to fade their passing attack in some way. Thomas seems to be the safest route, as he has only cleared this number once in the last five games.

John Bates has also been playing well, so there’s a chance he could eat into Thomas’ snaps as soon as this week.

I’m projecting Thomas’ median for closer to 19.5. He seems to have more paths to a floor game here.

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Harrison Bryant
Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)

Deshaun Watson is back and David Njoku is out. The new Browns QB will likely be rusty, which is one of the reasons I’ve picked the Texans to cover here.

Bryant will likely see the most high-percentage targets of all Browns pass catchers. If Watson does come out looking rusty, he’ll likely be missing throws down the field to the likes of Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones, essentially leading to more targets closer to the line of scrimmage for Bryant.

I’m projecting his median for closer to 28.5 passing yards if this theory works out. In that case, Bryant has sneaky upside in this market.

Pick: Harrison Bryant Over 23.5 Receiving Yards

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Kyren Williams
Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)

I took advantage of this projection last week and will continue to invest in it until the market adjusts.

The Rams should trail for most of this game against the Seahawks, setting up plenty of chances for Williams. With John Wolford starting this week over Bryce Perkins, we also get a boost. Perkins scrambled often last week against the Chiefs, while Wolford will look to throw the ball more.

Who will he throw it to? Expect a lot of dump-off work to Williams.

I’m projecting Williams’ median for closer to 21.5, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he clears that number, as well.

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Tyler Lockett
Under 5.5 Receptions (-145, BetMGM)

Lockett has only cleared this total once in his last seven games.

The Seahawks are seven-point favorites against a decimated Rams team and should win with ease here. Look for Seattle to lead throughout this game and have a run-heavy game script as a result.

Lockett has caught 77% of his passes this season, which is an unsustainable rate even for a player of his quality. I like the idea of investing in this market instead of his yardage because Lockett is always a big play waiting to happen.

I’m projecting the fair price for this closer to -185.

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College Basketball Odds, Expert Picks & Prediction for Oregon vs. UCLA (Sunday, Dec. 4)

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Oregon vs. UCLA Odds

Sunday, Dec. 4
5 p.m. ET
ESPN
Oregon Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+10.5
-110
144
-110o / -110u
 +375
UCLA Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-10.5
-110
144
-110o / -110u
 -600
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

The Pac-12 takes center stage this evening as the Oregon Ducks head south to take on the UCLA Bruins. Each of these teams has taken on stout competition early this season, and both should be well prepared for this matchup.

Oregon has gone through quite the gauntlet of late. Three of their past five opponents have been ranked and the other two were Villanova and Washington State. While they went 2-3 in that stretch, the Ducks played well in each and could be poised to perform well again here.

As for the Bruins, their early season test has hampered public perception. Yes, this team is very talented, but their two losses are against the only ranked opponents they have played thus far.

Can the Ducks finally get the upset they’ve been looking for? Or will the Bruins make a statement? Let’s dive in and find out.
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Oregon Ducks

When you look at this Oregon team, the first thing that you notice is the size. The Ducks are the largest team in the country by average height, and those big men have been their top contributors.

N’Faly Dante is the Ducks leading scorer and has been an imposing presence in the paint. The 6’11” senior is coming off his best performance yet, having scored 22 points and grabbed seven boards against Washington State.

Although, he’s not alone. Dante and seven-foot freshman Kel’el Ware have become the Ducks’ twin towers down low. However, Ware is a part of the new generation of stretch fours and fives and isn’t afraid to pull up from behind the arc, instead of living around the rim.

Of course, we can’t forget to mention the leader of this team, Will Richardson. The senior guard has been excellent on both ends of the floor and has proven to be an effective scorer, facilitator and defender.

While the Ducks have diverse scoring options, the Bruins should be able to match up with each of them. Jalen Clark, one of the best defenders in the nation, can stay with Richardson while Adem Bona and Mac Etienne battle with the bigs down low.

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UCLA Bruins

Entering the season, I was high on this Bruins club as they have all the tools to become a title contender. They have senior leadership, excellent defenders and a pair of star freshmen joining the fold.

While they haven’t quite fired on all cylinders yet, there are many signs the Bruins are coming together. They have been humming on the offensive end of the floor as they rank sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency and 14th in effective field goal percentage.

Those numbers stem from a change in scheme from last season. Without Jonny Juzang, the Bruins no longer need to rely on the outside shot. As a result, they have gotten over 60% of their points from inside the arc and have converted many of those higher percentage looks.

Since they do not take nearly the same amount of outside shots as last year, their tempo has decreased significantly. The Bruins are 100th in average possession length, and the Ducks’ size could slow them down even more.

Look for UCLA to take its time, generate quality looks, and even get to the charity stripe. Oregon is 346th in free throw rate.
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Oregon vs. UCLA Betting Pick

There’s no doubt the Ducks are underrated in this matchup. They have a significant size advantage that will impact both ends of the floor, and they are already battled tested.

Although, the Ducks hanging around in this game points to the under more than anything else. Their size will slow down the Bruins and likely disrupt UCLA in the early going.

On the other end of the floor, if the Bruins can disrupt the Ducks on the inside, they don’t have many other options.

Take the under in this conference matchup.

Pick: Under 143.5 | Play to 141

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Colts vs. Cowboys NFL Sunday Night Football Prediction: The Winning Algorithm That Fades Covering Teams

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Colts vs. Cowboys Odds, Prediction

Colts Odds +10.5 (-115)
Cowboys Odds -10.5  (-105)
Over/Under 44.5
Date Sunday, Dec. 4
Time 8:20 p.m. ET
Channel NBC

*Odds via FanDuel as of Sunday morning

Colts vs. Cowboys on Sunday Night Football fits a historically profitable betting algorithm developed by the Action Network.

The algorithm has gone 356-274-18 (57%) since 2005. That’s over 600 NFL games over a very lengthy sample size. $500 per game bettors would have netted about $29,000 in profit over that time frame.

That’s an annualized 9% return on investment (ROI) over an extensive timeframe.

Some of the algorithm’s main parameters include the opposing team’s win percentage, ATS percentage, ATS margin, the time of season and more.

We don’t recommend using this betting algorithm as an alternative to investing — variance is much less forgiving in sports gambling compared to the financial markets — but similar principles apply in regard to profits over a long time horizon.

Sunday Night Football’s Colts vs. Cowboys Prediction 


This betting system fades teams that have covered well this season.

These types of teams are due to regress back toward an ATS winning percentage close to 50% as the season progresses — as is the natural law of betting.

The team you’d fade needs to have a good ATS record — but also be blowing teams out against-the-spread. The team to fade needs to have covered by five points or more per game this season.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, are 7-4 ATS and beat teams ATS by an average of seven points per contest.

It also needs to be October or later in order for these ATS trends to fully calcify.

Teams facing off against these good ATS teams have covered 57% of the time since 2005.

As aforementioned, $500 per game bettors are up $29,000 over that timeframe.

The best price on the market for the Colts’ spread is with PointsBet at Indy +10.5 (-107).

Do keep in mind that this historically profitable algorithm applies to about 35 NFL games per season. This might be an opportunity to cash in, but keep in mind that this is a long-term investment.

The best way to make money through this algorithm is to bet on every game that fits these parameters for the rest of the year.

We’ll continue to write about them.

PRO Pick: Colts +10.5 (-107) or better

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Chiefs vs Bengals Same Game Parlay: Picks for Isiah Pacheco, Tyler Boyd, More

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Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes square off for the third time in their careers on Sunday afternoon as the red-hot Chiefs look to win their sixth straight game in Cincinnati.

Burrow swept the two-game series against Mahomes last year, including an overtime win against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship. Both victories came on game-winning field goals.

It seems like Bengals running back Joe Mixon will be unavailable once again as he’s yet to clear concussion protocol. Ja’Marr Chase, meanwhile, is expected to play after missing the previous four games with a hip injury.

Can Mahomes get his revenge against Burrow, or will the Bengals continue to have the Chiefs’ number?

Here’s a same-game parlay for the Sunday afternoon bout!

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Chiefs -2.5

Third time’s the charm, right?

Despite dealing with injuries all season long and trading Tyreek Hill to Miami, the Chiefs offense hasn’t skipped a beat. They’re No. 2 in Pass DVOA, and Isiah Pacheco’s emergence has given KC a viable run game.

I’m not sure the Bengals defense will have an answer for this Chiefs offense that is first in EPA/Play and Success Rate. The Bengals should struggle to generate pressure as they’re 21st in Pass Rush Win Rate, as my colleague Anthony Dabbundo wrote about.

Bet Chiefs vs. Bengals at FanDuel

Chiefs -2.5

Bengals +2.5

Kansas City shouldn’t struggle to put up points, and I believe the Bengals are a bit overvalued here. They’ll likely be without Mixon once again, and while Chase provides an offensive boost, I don’t think it’s enough to push the Bengals within two points.

The Chiefs defense is about league average in most metrics, but they are seventh in Coverage, per PFF, and 10th in Pass Rush. Their weakness is defending the run, but without Mixon, the Bengals will likely be forced to pass more frequently.

Both teams enter on win streaks, but I believe this is the perfect sell-high spot for the Bengals. Anytime I can grab Mahomes under the key number of three, I will gladly take it. KC is 17-5-1 with Mahomes under center as a three-point favorite or fewer.

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Isiah Pacheco
Over 57.5 Rushing Yards

The Chiefs have seemingly found their RB1 of the future with Isiah Pacheco and are leaning into the ground game more often. In what should be a positive game script for KC, I’m backing Pacheco to go over his prop for the fourth straight week.

Pacheco has seen 15+ carries in three straight games and averaged 86 yards per game. The rookie is explosive and averages 4.7 yards per carry this season.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire is on the injured reserve, but he slowly became a non-factor anyways. Jerick McKinnon is more of a third-down back, and Ronald Jones will be used sparingly. That leaves Pacheco with the lion’s share of carries.

This is a number that our Action Network projections have at 66 yards, so there’s over a 5% edge on his over. If the Chiefs can establish a lead — like they have in the previous two games against the Bengals — they should rely on the power back Pacheco to get the job done.

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Tyler Boyd
Over 39.5 Receiving Yards

This is the perfect buy-low spot on Tyler Boyd, who is fresh off a 16-yard game against Tennessee. All the attention will be on Chase and Tee Higgins, leaving Boyd room to clean up underneath.

Boyd has cracked the 40-yard mark in six of his last nine games and fell two yards short of that mark against Cleveland. He gets over five targets per game as this number is too low in what should be a higher-scoring game.

Boyd has an aDOT (average depth of target) of 10.4 yards, and given his usage in the pass game, he should push over the 40-yard mark on Sunday.

Our Action Network projections have this closer to 43 yards, so there’s a slight edge to his over. Following the narrative of a Chiefs win, the Bengals will be forced into throwing more. Without Mixon, passing should see a slight boost, which puts value on the Cincinnati receivers.

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The Parlay (+437)

  • Chiefs -2.5
  • Isiah Pacheco Over 57.5 Rushing Yards
  • Tyler Boyd Over 39.5 Receiving Yards

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England vs Senegal Odds, Pick, Prediction | World Cup Match Preview

England vs. Senegal Odds

Sunday, Dec. 4
2 p.m. ET
FS1
England Odds -188
Senegal Odds +650
Draw +275
Over/Under 2.5 (+130 / -163)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) (+125 / -175)
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here.

England look to book their spot in the World Cup quarterfinals for a potential heavyweight matchup with France when they take on Senegal.

The Three Lions went unbeaten through the group stage and put on an offensive spectacle, scoring a whopping nine goals in three matches. They are a battle-tested bunch after making it all the way to the Euro final two summers ago, so the moment will not be too big for them.

Senegal got a massive win over Ecuador in their final group stage match to book their spot in the knockout stage. The champions of Africa will be looking to book their second ever trip to the quarterfinals, but they are massive underdogs to do so.

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England Cooking at Just The Right Time

Mighty mighty England looked fantastic in the group stage outside of the match against the United States. The Three Lions created 5.2 xG in those three matches, which was fifth-highest of anyone in the tournament.

England’s ability to control possession, find space in between the lines and make the crucial line-breaking pass has been the reason why they’ve been so difficult to beat for such a long time. They demolished Wales in their last match of the group stage and their passing networks were a thing of beauty.

England will keep the pace of this match slow and intricate, which Senegal are perfectly fine playing. The key for England is beating Senegal in the 1-on-1 situations because their attackers are going to get man-marked. England will also have to take advantage of their set pieces, which have been a staple under Gareth Southgate.

So far this tournament, England have generated have only generated 0.88 xG from set pieces, but England did have the sixth-most crosses in the group stage, which will be a key in breaking down Senegal’s defense.

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Senegal Stout on The Defensive End

Senegal are an outstanding defensive team. They held all three of their opponents in the group stage under 1 xG but they did allow a ton of possession and chances in their final third and penalty box. 

They have been a bit vulnerable on set pieces, which we know is England’s bread and butter. Senegal have allowed 21 passes to be completed into the penalty area and 11 of them have been crosses. Only Australia and Ghana have allowed more crosses into the penalty area this tournament. 

Against the Netherlands, Senegal did a lot of man-marking, which creates a lot of 1-on-1 opportunities. They have the athleticism, pace and ability to do that, but defending Netherlands attackers is a lot different than England forwards. 

The concern here for England is Senegal have so much pace to exploit them in transition, so it’s absolutely vital that England do not lose the ball high up the pitch. Senegal stayed very compact against the Netherlands and did not press them high up the pitch, as their PPDA was 16.1 and they only forced four high turnovers. 

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England vs. Senegal Pick

My guess is that Senegal are going to have the same plan that the United States had against England, which is to take away easy passes to Declan Rice, Jude Bellingham, and Mason Mount in order to force England to play the ball out wide.

However, their inability to defend crosses is really concerning. Plus, let’s not forget depth plays a big part in this tournament, and Senegal don’t have that. England have been able to rotate guys throughout throughout the group stage. 

I have England projected at -285, so I like them on the spread of -1 at -110 because as we’ve seen from England in this tournament, once the first goal goes in, the space opens up and they can punish you.

The Pick: England -1 (-110) 

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Promoguy’s Sunday Bets for NFL Week 13, World Cup

harry kane

PromoGuy covers +EV odds boosts, promos and more for Action. Follow him on Twitter and in the Action Network app.

There are two books I’ll cover boosts and promos at today — FanDuel and DraftKings. There are four total plays I’m making — two NFL, two on the World Cup match at 2 p.m. ET between Senegal and England.

Add Two Boosts With One Click

Click to autofill your bet slip with both +EV FanDuel boosts!
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FanDuel

1. Ravens, Chiefs, Packers PMI Boost

FanDuel is boosting the Ravens, Chiefs and Packers to all win from +210 to +300. The true price is closer to +263, making this about 10% EV.

2. World Cup SGP

FanDuel’s World Cup same game parlay insurance promo rolls on. It must stay above +400. I’ll follow a similar format to what I’ve been doing for most of the tournament.

  • Senegal corner spread +2
  • Over 3.5 England corners
  • England under 1.5 first half goals

 

3. World Cup Both Teams to Score

The England-Senegal to both score boost at FanDuel looks strong, but I’ll wait til a little closer to kickoff to confirm it. It’s boosted from +130 to +180.

Pick: England & Senegal to Score

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DraftKings

1. Anytime TD +100 Boost

DraftKings is “adding +100” to an anytime touchdown scorer bet, and I’m moving Justin Jefferson from +105 to +205.

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NFL Player Props for Week 13: Picks on Kenneth Walker, Foster Moreau

nfl player props-picks-kenneth walker-foster moreau

Using Sean Koerner’s projections on Action Labs, I entered Week 13 11-3 on my last 14 player-prop write-ups. I’m no data wiz like Sean, but I do know how to read. That’s all you need to be able to do to thrive in the props market.

For the late slate of Week 13, here are two picks I’ve made and bet using Koerner’s data.

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Kenneth Walker
Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-115, BetRivers)

Walker has slowed down of late, with just 43 rushing yards over his last two games. Both of those were Seahawks losses, though, and his 10 and 14 carries in those matchups were the lowest since he took over as Seattle’s full-time starter.

The game script should be much different this week. Seattle is playing a Rams team that most won’t be able to recognize, with one key name missing for the sake of this bet.

The Los Angeles defense ranks fifth in Football Outsiders’ Run DVOA, but that was with Aaron Donald. The future Hall of Fame defensive lineman is out this week — and probably longer — due to a high ankle sprain. It’s difficult to say one player changes the nature of an entire defense, but Donald is that crucial to this Rams unit.

Walker is projected for 77 yards by Action Labs, a number he cleared four times in five games between Weeks 5-9.

Seattle should be playing with a lead for most of this game against a John Wolford-led Rams offense, and I expect Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron to use this as a chance to get Walker going again. His floor should be pretty low on this prop, so I’d play it up to 75.5.

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Foster Moreau
Over 3.5 Receptions (+125, BetMGM)

Moreau is projected for 3.9 receptions, and we’re getting over 3.5 at +125 at BetMGM.

In the six games that Moreau has started this season for the Raiders, he has cleared this just once. In those games, though, he has gotten at least five targets four times. Last week, he saw seven looks against the Seahawks.

This season, the Chargers rank 26th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA against tight ends. Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller are still out, giving Moreau a path toward being potentially the Raiders’ No. 2 receiving target.

With the strong matchup, getting plus money on an over that he’s projected to hit is a no brainer.

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NFL Week 13 Expert Picks, Predictions: How to Bet Dolphins vs 49ers

Follow Chris Raybon in the Action App to get all his betting picks.

Week 13 Odds & Picks

Click on a pick to skip ahead
Dolphins vs. 49ers
4:05 p.m. ET

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Dolphins

vs.

49ers

Pick
Dolphins +4.5 (Bet to +3)
Best Book
Time
4:05 p.m. ET

The 49ers defense will be rightfully lauded after shutting out the Saints, but the Dolphins’ offense will be a shock to their system. The 49ers have played the third-easiest schedule of opposing offenses in terms of Football Outsiders’ DVOA, but now face a Miami offense ranked second in overall DVOA and first in passing DVOA even when Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson’s starts are included.

Injuries at tackle shouldn’t hamper the offense too much, as Tua Tagovailoa is tied for the fifth–quickest average time to throw (2.50 seconds) among 39 qualified quarterbacks. He also leads all quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus passing grade under pressure (68.9) and in PFF passing grade when getting the ball out in under 2.5 seconds (90.2).

On defense, Miami matches up well because it is stout against the run, ranking fourth in early-down rush success rate allowed (34.5%). Miami’s pass defense is also improving thanks to the addition of Bradley Chubb, who has registered a sack in two of his three games as a Dolphin and helped the defense average 3.3 sacks per game since his arrival, up from 1.6 before he was acquired.

Per our Action Labs data, Tagovailoa is 9-4-1 (69%) against the spread (ATS) as an underdog in his career. And this season, underdogs by more than a field goal in games with a total of 47 or less are 51-26 (66%) ATS.

Pick: Dolphins +4.5 (Bet to +3)

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NFL Week 13 Predictions: Late-Slate Best Bets for Dolphins vs 49ers, Seahawks vs Rams

nfl picks-week 13-best bets-seahawks vs rams-dolphins vs 49ers

For the latest NFL odds, click here.

NFL Odds & Picks

Click on a pick to skip ahead
49ers -4.5
4:05 p.m. ET
Trent Sherfield Over 2.5 Receptions (+145)
4:05 p.m. ET
LanFranca: Rams +7
4:05 p.m. ET
Dabbundo: Rams +7
4:05 p.m. ET

Dolphins

vs.

49ers

Pick
49ers -3.5
Best Book
Time
4:05 p.m. ET

Simon Hunter: Good old-fashioned battle of teacher vs. student. Once best friends, now foes.

Kyle Shanahan and Mike McDaniel coached together for 14 years and go back further than that. How does one back that in a spread? Hell if I know.

What I can tell you is Miami is without LT Terron Armstead and RT Austin Jackson is doubtful. On the other side, Arik Armstead is fully healthy. Miami already had a shaky offensive line. Take away those two starters against a top-three pass rush, and this is a nightmare matchup for Tua Tagovailoa, who has struggled with holding onto the ball too long.

Miami had a nice run against bottom-of-the-league defenses over the past couple weeks. The 49ers‘ offense will be able to run the ball this week against Miami’s front seven while getting pressure on Tagovailoa with just four pass rushers.

It’s not surprising that the public has come in heavy on the Dolphins, who have played well of late. They’re overlooking how important the offensive line has been to the Dolphins’ success this season.

I’d bet the 49ers up to -4.5.

Pick: 49ers -4.5

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Dolphins

vs.

49ers

Pick
Trent Sherfield Over 2.5 Receptions (+145)
Best Book
Time
4:05 p.m. ET

Nick Bretwisch: Going a bit into the dumpster here for another Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) Model edge, but we’ve been riding a bit of a hot streak here, so let’s roll. This week, we’re taking advantage of what should be a fantastic game script for the Miami Dolphins passing attack and rolling with slot receiver Trent Sherfield over 2.5 receptions.

Sherfield has been quietly active in the Miami passing game over the past three weeks and enters a fantastic matchup against the 49ers’ cover-3 and cover-4 zone defense. In these coverages, Sherfield’s target share has significantly exceeded his baseline numbers and the 49ers rank 31st in pass defense DVOA to opposing tertiary pass-catchers. As long as this game remains competitive and a pass-heavy script for the Dolphins, Sherfield should be clear of this number by the end of the third quarter.

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Seahawks

vs.

Rams

Pick
Rams +7
Best Book
Time
4:05 p.m. ET

John LanFranca: Sometimes as a handicapper, you have to embrace the uncomfortable feeling of betting on bad football teams. The Rams‘ season is all but over when it comes to anything meaningful in the standings, but I definitely did not see a team that had given up last week in Arrowhead Stadium.

The Seahawks‘ defense has been up and down this season, but last week was one of their worst defensive performances of the season. Seattle gave up an astounding 576 total yards off of its bye week, which is not a good sign for its playoff aspirations moving forward. Prior to the Seahawks’ bye, the struggling Buccaneers offense put 419 total yards against this defense. Seattle is now 25th on the season on defense, allowing 5.6 yards per play.

I am not the only one expecting an inspired performance from Los Angeles. At the time of writing this, 60% of the bets have come in on the favored Seahawks, yet the line opened at 8.5 and is now down to the key number of 7. I wouldn’t play this anywhere below a full touchdown, so be sure to buy a half point if the number creeps even lower to 6.5. The fact that this line keeps moving in the Rams favor is another sign the sharp bettors in the industry are on the right side.

I’d bet the Rams no lower than +7, so play an alt line if you have to. This number moved to +6.5 on Sunday morning.

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Seahawks

vs.

Rams

Pick
Rams +7
Best Book
Time
4:05 p.m. ET

Anthony Dabbundo: It might be the ugliest underdog play of the entire day, but the Seattle Seahawks aren’t good enough to be laying more than a touchdown on the road against anyone. Despite the medley of injuries for the Rams — they’re playing without Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford and Aaron Donald — it’s still a divisional home game against a rival.

The Rams still have the No. 3 run defense by Rushing Success Rate allowed and rank third in EPA per rush this year. The defensive line should be able to keep Kenneth Walker and the Seahawks ground game in check and prevent them from running up the score in this game.John Wolford gets the start for the Rams and as bad as he is, the Seattle defense isn’t nearly as good as they’ve played at points in this season either.

Much noise has been made about the Seattle improvements on defense, but they’re still just 26th in EPA per play allowed and just conceded 40 to the Raiders last week. Seattle may win this game and it might never even really be in doubt, but Pete Carroll is historically ultra conservative with a lead.

The backdoor will remain open if needed late, and this is a great spot to buy the bottom of the market on the Rams. A divisional home underdog of 7+ against the Seahawks? Consider how much market respect that’s showing for a Seattle team that was expected to win 5-6 games this season.

I’d play the Rams at +7 or better.

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Promoguy’s Vegas Fantasy Football Rankings, Week 13

nfl player props-week 6-ja'marr chase-samaje perine-bengals vs saints

We debuted Vegas-style fantasy football rankings prior to this NFL season.

We used season-long prop lines for each player to project fantasy points, using the wisdom-of-the-crowds approach embedded in betting markets to find players undervalued and overvalued by fantasy experts.

For example: if a receiver was listed at 6 catches, 60 yards and 0.5 TDs in the prop market, he’d be projected for 15 points in full PPR, and 9 points in standard formats.

We’ll be doing the same on a game-by-game basis, using props from that week’s games to create fantasy rankings. While you’ll be starting most of the players listed anyway, these rankings can be a good way to find DFS value or make tough lineup decisions early in the season.

Here’s how things shook out for quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers for Week 13 in all formats, with some notes below.

Steelers RB Najee Harris is not listed due to injury, and some players on Monday Night Football between the Saints and Bucs are not listed either.

Quarterback

  • Deshaun Watson is QB7 in a juicy matchup against the Texans as he makes his season debut for the Browns.
  • Justin Fields is QB4 after missing last week, thanks to his rushing upside.
  • Tua Tagavailoa is QB12 in a tough matchup against the 49ers, behind guys like Geno Smith and Daniel Jones.

Running Back

  • Josh Jacobs after a huge last few weeks is RB1 in standard and half-PPR formats, but Austin Ekeler still holds the top spot in PPR thanks to his pass-catching volume.
  • Tony Pollard is still a fringe RB1 even with Zeke Elliott getting more involved last week.
  • Samaje Perine is a top 10 running back or close to it in all formats with Joe Mixon likely unavailable for the Bengals.
  • Zonovan Knight, who made his debut for the Jets just last week, is RB21 in PPR formats with Michael Carter out.

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Wide Receiver

  • Davante Adams is the No. 1 WR in all formats, ahead of Tyreek Hill. Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle is also further down the usual in a tough matchup with San Fran.
  • Ja’Marr Chase slots in as WR5 after missing the last month. That forces Tee Higgins back to WR11.
  • Deebo Samuel is near the back of the top 20, although he’s expected to play through an injury.

Tight End

  • The prop market likes Pat Freiermuth, who is TE3 and has rated favorably in our rankings the last few weeks.
  • Despite some mixed results, the market still likes Raiders TE Foster Moreau, who slots in at TE8.
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NFL Odds: Sunday Afternoon Picks for Every Week 13 Game

nfl odds-week 13-bets-preview

Week 13 NFL Odds

Click on a matchup to skip to that matchup preview and pick.
Steelers vs. Falcons
1 p.m. ET
Packers vs. Bears
1 p.m. ET
Jaguars vs. Lions
1 p.m. ET
Jets vs. Vikings
1 p.m. ET
Commanders vs. Giants
1 p.m. ET
Titans vs. Eagles
1 p.m. ET
Broncos vs. Ravens
1 p.m. ET
Browns vs. Texans
1 p.m. ET
Seahawks vs. Rams
4:05 p.m. ET
Dolphins vs. 49ers
4:05 p.m. ET
Chiefs vs. Bengals
4:25 p.m. ET
Chargers vs. Raiders
4:25 p.m. ET

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Steelers vs.

Falcons

Steelers Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-1
-105
42.5
-114o / -106u
 -110
Falcons Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+1
-115
42.5
-114o / -106u
 -106
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Dylan Wilkerson: Opposing QBs have an average of 3.5 rush attempts per game against the Steelers this season. This includes games against mobile QBs such as Josh Allen, Joe Burrow (twice) and Jalen Hurts. Only one QB has rushed seven or more times against Pittsburgh, and that was Mac Jones in Week 2. While the Steelers run a blitz-heavy defense, they aren’t getting home very often, and the mobile quarterbacks have not been forced to scramble. 

Marcus Mariota is not a great pocket passer. However, he only has more than seven rush attempts in four games this season. Tyler Allgeier has seen an increase in rush attempts, even with Cordarrelle Patterson back in the lineup. If the Falcons want to run the ball, it will be with their new found tandem in the backfield, not with their quarterback. I expect to see Mariota spend some more time in the pocket this weekend, and less time scrambling.

BetMGM has this bet at a plus number. You can use our Action Labs props tool to get the best numbers across sportsbooks.

Pick: Marcus Mariota Under 6.5 Rush Attempts (+105) | Bet to Under 6

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Packers vs.

Bears

Packers Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-4.5
-105
44.5
-110o / -110u
 -210
Bears Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+4.5
-115
44.5
-110o / -110u
 +176
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Landon Silinsky: The state of both offenses isn’t great right now, and with both teams wanting to run the ball at a high rate (Chicago is No. 1 in rushing play percentage), there should be a bunch of clock-killing drives.

Regardless of how healthy Fields is, I don’t see the Bears having a ton of offensive success and  could see this being a 20-17 type game.

Give me the under in this spot.

Pick: Under 44.5

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Read the full Packers vs. Bears preview or return to the table of contents

Jaguars vs.

Lions

Jaguars Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+1
-114
51.5
-105o / -115u
 -108
Lions Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-1
-106
51.5
-105o / -115u
 -108
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Anthony Dabbundo: There’s a massive difference between Lawrence’s production when under pressure vs. clean pockets this season. He has 13 big-time throws, just four turnover worthy plays and an 88 Pro Football Focus grade from a clean pocket this season. That has amounted to 14 touchdowns, three interceptions and 7.1 yards per attempt. When under pressure, Lawrence’s grade drops to 27.7 with 11 turnover worthy plays.

If you can get to Lawrence and play solid man defense, you can shut down the Jaguars offense. Lawrence also grades out better against zone coverage than man. So, while the Lions do play a lot of man defense, they don’t get enough pressure to supplement it.

The result will be many clean pockets for Lawrence. The Jaguars have had so many close losses and are better than their record indicates.

The Jaguars defensive line isn’t elite by any stretch, but they do rank seventh in pass rush win rate. They have more talent along the front to rattle Goff a few times. Like Lawrence, Goff is horrendous when under pressure.

Detroit was clearly undervalued in the market over the past few weeks, playing against overvalued teams like the Packers, Bills and Giants. But now, as a toss-up against a better Jaguars team, I’ll take Lawrence and Pederson’s offense to carve up the Lions secondary.

Pick: Jaguars ML | Bet to -115